Press release
N°2017_03 | Chinese exports
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2016: Chinese steel exports decreases 19% and average
price falls 15% versus 2015
CHINA during january-december 2016:
106.2
million tons
exported
to the world
7.6
million tons
shipped to
Latin America
US$478
is the average price
per ton worldwide
(without Latam)
US$478
35
is the average
value per ton in
the region
actions in force
against China in
Latin America
Alacero - Santiago, Chile, February 03, 2017. During 2016, China exported to the world 106.2 million tons (Mt) of
steel, decreasing only 3% versus 2015 (109.6 Mt). Of that volume received, 99.1 Mt were finished steel and
7.1 Mt of steel-derivatives products.
Meanwhile, Latin America received 7.6 Mt of Chinese steel, which 6.8 Mt were finished steel and 802 thousands tons of steel-derivatives products-, 19% less than 2015 (9.4 Mt).
The main destination for China in the region were, Central America with 1.8 Mt (same volumen of 2015),
Chile with 1.3 Mt tons (2% less vs 2015) and Peru 989 thousands tons (2% more than 2015). Even though
Chinese steel exports fell, both to the world and the region during 2016, it should be recalled that China
has an overcapacity of ≈450 million tons and has the potential to return to previous levels when the market
recovers.
Latin America, during the last years has been negatively affected by China’s growing exports, by the reduction of local production, unemployment and plant closures.
$ 895
1,000
$ 458
$ 429
$ 426
Costa Rica
$ 463
$ 438
Colombia
$ 480
World without = $ 478/t
$ 394
$ 478
400
$ 533
600
$ 629
$ 749
800
Venezuela
Dominican
Republic
Peru
Mexico
Ecuadpr
Chile
Brazil
Central
America
200
Argentina
Since Alacero begin monitoring the Chinese exports,
is the first time that the avarage price of Latin America is the same as for the rest of the world (without
Latam). However, there are several destinations in
the region which are facing imports prices significantly lower than the ones seeing in the rest of the
world.
Finished Steel: Average price of Chinese
exports to Latin America, Jan/DEC 2016
Latin
America
Last year, the volume received by the region from
China corresponds to a value of US $ 3,650 million,
which gives an average price of US $ 478 per ton,
same average price for the rest of the world (excluding Latin America) , recording US $ 47,116 million.
graph 01
US$ / Tons
Average price: Chinese exports to the world
and to the region
Source: Alacero based on GTA/Chinese Customs data
Benjamín 2944, 5º Piso Las Condes
755 0032 Santiago Chile
www.alacero.org
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The Graph 01 shows that the most affected countries are: Central America (average price of US$
394/t, 18% below r-o-w average), Costa Rica (US$
426/t, 11% less), Peru (US$ 429/t, 10% below) and
Colombia (US$ 438, 8% below r-o-w average).
Quarterly analysis of Chinese exports
Figure 02 shows, since 1°Q 2014 to 4°Q 2016, the
movement in the volume and price of Chinese steel
(finished + derivatives) exported to Latin America
and the rest of the world.
It can be seen that during the fourth quarter of the
year, the average prices of Chinese exports to Latin
America decrease by 25% compared to the 1°Q
2014, while those applied to the rest of the world
did 30%. Meanwhile, volumes shipped by China to
Latin America were 5% below, while for the rest of
the world these have increased by 34%.
Also, the Graph 03 shows the evolution average price per quarter that steel exports (finished + derivatives) have experienced from China. It can be observed that during the first quarter of 2016 the lowest
value was reached, while for the following semesters
there is a recovery in average prices in Latin America
and the rest of the world.
Graph 02
FINISHED STEEL: EVOLUTION OF Chinese EXPORTS
TO LATIN AMERICA AND R-O-W
Volume (tons) and price per ton (US$/ton) – Variations vs 1Q 2014
Latin America - US$/Tons
World without Latam - Tons
World without Latam - US$/Tons
100%
Tons to rest of the world: +34%
80%
60%
40% 1T ‘14 =
Tons to Latin America: -5%
base 0
20%
0%
to
-20% Decrease
Latin America: - 25%
-40%
Decrease to rest of the world: -30%
-60%
1º 2º 3º 4º
1º 2º 3º 4º
1º 2º 3º 4º
2014 2014 2014 2014 2015 2015 2015 2015 2016 2016 2016 2016
Source: Alacero based on GTA/Chinese Customs data
Graph 03
Average Price Evolution of Chinese steel
exports to Latin America and the Rest
of the World
Latin America
800
Flat products to Latin America
700
During 2016, China shipped to Latin America 3.9
Mt of flat products, concentrated 51% of the steel
(finished + derivate) exports, 15% less than 2015.
600
500
US$ / Tons
The average price of that volume was US$ 498, 4%
below the one receive by the rest of the world and
decreased 13% versus 2015. The price for the rest of
the world (without Latam) did it in 8%.
Latin America - Tons
World without Latin America
764
688
534
517
400
300
1º 2º 3º 4º 1º 2º 3º 4º 1º 2º 3º 4º
2014 2014 2014 2014 2015 2015 2015 2015 2016 2016 2016 2016
On the other hand, Chile, Central America and Brazil, Source: Alacero based on GTA/Chinese Customs data
were the three largest importers of flat steel from
China receiving 945 thousand, 710 thousand and 597 thousand tons respectively. These three destinations
recorded average prices of 8%, 9% and 1% below average price of the rest of the world, respectively. While,
Venezuela, Argentina and Mexico are the unique destinations that face a price higher than the rest of the
world. See Graph 04.
Benjamín 2944, 5º Piso Las Condes
755 0032 Santiago Chile
www.alacero.org
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Central America, the largest importer of Chinese
long steel in the region (962 thousand tons), registered an average price of US$ 317 per ton, 8% lower
than r-o-w and 8% less than in 2015 (US$ 345 per
ton).
The main product imported in the period was bars
(1.4 Mt), decreasing 12% and wire rod (938 thousand
tons), 28% less than 2015.
During January/December 2016, seamless pipes
accounted for 4.1% of total steel (finished + derivate) shipments from China to the region, a volume
of 311 thousand tons (21% drop y-o-y). The average
price face by Latin America was US$ 787 per ton,
24% lower than for the rest of the world (US$ 979/ t).
See Table 01.
$ 1,142
$ 1,011
1,000
$ 441
$ 466
Ecuadpr
$ 509
$ 444
Costa Rica
$ 478
Chile
Colombia
$ 471
$ 510
400
Central
America
World without Latam = $ 517/t
$ 436
600
$ 643
800
Source: Alacero based on GTA/Chinese Customs data
chart 01
Main regional destinations:
Average import price per ton (US$)
January/december 2016
Destiny
(US$/ton)
Flat
Long
Seamless
pipes
Derivate
steel
498
360
778
648
World
without Latam
471
317
590
522
1.011
418
852
969
Brazil
510
345
1.854
950
Central America
478
217
656
543
Chile
444
356
586
602
Colombia
466
414
827
825
Latin America
Argentina
Finally, the share of the steel-derivatives products
Ecuador
643
502
1.256
is 10.5% of the total exports of Chinese steel to the
Mexico
436
1.061
583
region during 2016, with a volume of 802 thousand
Peru
509
350
618
tons (610 thousand tons correspond to seamless
Dominican Rep.
1.142
570
700
pipes and 191 thousand tons of wire). This volume
Venezuela
517
344
979
was 21% lower than received last year. Latin America
is the top destination for Chinese exports of these
Source: Alacero based on GTA/Chinese Customs data
products. The average price of steel-derivatives
products in those months was US$ 648 per ton, 18% lower than observed for r-o-w and 12% below level
recorded in 2015 (US$ 736/t).
Benjamín 2944, 5º Piso Las Condes
755 0032 Santiago Chile
www.alacero.org
Venezuela
Dominican
Republic
Peru
Mexico
Brazil
200
Argentina
The average price was US$ 360 per ton, 5% higher
than the one observed for the world (US$ 344/t) and
21% less than in 2015 (US$ 453 per ton).
1,200
$ 498
In the same year, exports of long products from
China to Latin America reached 2.6 Mt, 35% of total
steel (finished + derivate) received from that country.
Average price of flat steel Chinese
exports to Latin America, Jan/dec 2016
Latin
America
Long products, seamless tubes and steel derivates to Latin America
Graph 04
US$ / Tons
In 2016, other alloyed steel sheets and coils (1.1 Mt
tons) and hot dip galvanized sheet (943 thousand
tons) were the most significant exports from China
to the region, showing a drop of 27% and 17% compared to 2015, respectively.
844
652
501
738
794
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> Glossary
Finished steel: Refers to steel included in one of these 3 groups: Long products (e.g.: reinforcing bars, bars, wire
rod, light sections, heavy sections, rails), flat steel (e.g.: sheets and coils, coated sheets, pre-painted, stainless
steel, chrome-plate sheets, hot dip galvanized sheet etc.) and seamless tubes.
Steel- derivatives products: Refers to the products that come from finished steel (welded tubes being the most
significant item).
Central America: Considers Guatemala, Belize, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama.
Ton: A unit of weight or volume of sea cargo, equal to a metric ton (1,000 kg).
About Alacero
Alacero –the Latin American Steel Association– is the organization that brings together the Steel Value Chain of
Latin America to promote the values of regional integration, technological innovation, corporate responsibility,
excellence in human resources, safe working environments, and social and environmental sustainability. Founded
in 1959, Alacero is formed by 49 companies in 12 countries of Latin America, whose production of about 70 million
annual tons. Alacero is a Special Consulting Organization to the United Nations and is recognized as International
Non-Government Organization by the Republic of Chile, host country of Alacero´s headquarters.
_
Contact
[email protected]
(56-2) 2233-0545, ext. 23
Benjamín 2944, 5º Piso Las Condes
755 0032 Santiago Chile
www.alacero.org
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