Oxford Institute of Ageing
Developing individualised life tables
BSPS Annual Conference
12 September 2007
Martin Karlsson
Oxford Institute of Ageing
University Of Oxford
OXFORD INSTITUTE
OF AGEING
Les Mayhew
Ben Rickayzen
Cass Business School
Cass Business School
City University
City University
Oxford Institute of Ageing
Outline
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Background: The importance of healthy life expectancy
Recent trends in HLE
Objectives of research
Empirical strategy
Preliminary results
Application: Individualised life tables
Application: Potential gains in HLE and LE
OXFORD INSTITUTE
OF AGEING
Oxford Institute of Ageing
Background: Informal Care
140
.
130
Million Hours per week
120
110
100
90
80
70
Demand, 65+
Total Demand
Supply
60
50
Year
OXFORD INSTITUTE
OF AGEING
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
40
Oxford Institute of Ageing
Recent Trends in HLE
Three hypotheses have been
considered:
• Compression of morbidity (Fries)
• Expansion of morbidity
(Gruenberg)
• Combination (Manton)
OXFORD INSTITUTE
OF AGEING
However, UK data are surprisingly
inconclusive:
• Life expectancy free from any disability
has been slowly increasing.
• Proportion of life spent free from any
disability has been roughly constant.
• Severe-disability free life expectancy has
been increasing (ADL based definition)
• The proportion of life spent free from
severe disability has been increasing.
• The severely-disabled life expectancy has
fallen.
Oxford Institute of Ageing
Objectives of Research
• To analyse the dynamics of health, labour market participation
and cohabitation in the UK population
• To analyse trends in morbidity and mortality at the individual
level
• To project future labour market participation, cohabitation
and morbidity of subgroups of the UK population
• To analyse the individual effects of transitions between
different employment, health and cohabitation states
OXFORD INSTITUTE
OF AGEING
Oxford Institute of Ageing
Empirical Strategy
Dataset
We use all available waves of the
British Household Panel
Survey (1991-2004)
Independent variables include
• Age, sex and ethnicity
• Educational attainment
• Time trends
OXFORD INSTITUTE
OF AGEING
Estimation Strategy: GHK
•
We estimate a system of equations:
–
–
–
–
•
Survival
Employment Status
Cohabitation Status
Disability
Estimation strategy includes
correcting for
–
–
–
–
Autocorrelation
Random effects
Attrition (IPW)
State Dependence & Initial
Conditions
Oxford Institute of Ageing
Results I: Employment
Variable
Constant
Age
Age2
University
A Levels
O Levels
Year
Year2
Non-white
Wt-1
Ct-1
Ht-1
OXFORD INSTITUTE
OF AGEING
Males
Coefficient
-3.4513
8.8999
-12.7080
0.3592
0.1545
0.1737
0.6783
-0.3626
-0.0607
2.1235
0.1623
0.5065
T Stat
-28.75 ***
23.53 ***
-34.24 ***
12.24 ***
6.28 ***
7.33 ***
6.70 ***
-5.71 ***
-1.52
113.79 ***
5.96 ***
19.19 ***
Females
Coefficient
T Stat
-3.6494
-32.21 ***
11.1474
26.55 ***
-14.6295
-33.12 ***
0.3312
12.17 ***
0.1861
8.03 ***
0.1508
7.35 ***
0.1537
1.77 *
-0.0793
-1.47
-0.1216
-3.15 ***
2.1122
141.26 ***
-0.0852
-4.26 ***
0.3638
16.28 ***
Oxford Institute of Ageing
Results II: Cohabitation
Variable
Constant
Age
Age2
University
A Levels
O Levels
Year
Year2
Non-white
Wt-1
Ct-1
Ht-1
Wt
OXFORD INSTITUTE
OF AGEING
Males
Coefficient
-2.5938
3.1559
-3.5308
0.1651
0.0680
0.0866
0.0998
-0.0253
0.1707
0.1617
3.0812
-0.0149
-0.0277
T Stat
-25.84 ***
9.92 ***
-11.35 ***
5.79 ***
2.89 ***
3.62 ***
0.88
-0.37
4.35 ***
4.12 ***
154.98 ***
-0.49
-0.67
Females
Coefficient
T Stat
-2.3203
-23.10 ***
2.0719
6.45 ***
-3.2182
-10.46 ***
0.0535
1.72 *
0.0118
0.47
-0.0412
-1.83 *
0.2768
2.58 **
-0.1540
-2.36 **
-0.0544
-1.42
0.3229
9.23 ***
3.1764
166.30 ***
0.1429
5.27 ***
-0.2975
-7.66 ***
Oxford Institute of Ageing
Results III: Disability
Variable
Constant
Age
Age2
University
A Levels
O Levels
Year
Year2
Non-white
Wt-1
Ct-1
Ht-1
Wt
Ct
OXFORD INSTITUTE
OF AGEING
Males
Coefficient
-0.2781
-1.3014
0.7406
0.2723
0.2097
0.0850
-0.6348
0.2249
-0.1803
0.0896
-1.8255
1.3146
0.4020
2.0931
T Stat
-2.71 ***
-4.03 ***
2.49 **
9.44 ***
9.38 ***
3.83 ***
-7.10 ***
4.15 ***
-4.99 ***
2.48 **
-38.33 ***
67.49 ***
10.51 ***
43.83 ***
Females
Coefficient
T Stat
-0.7675
-9.82 ***
1.9298
7.38 ***
-2.8512
-11.94 ***
0.1481
5.64 ***
0.1716
8.22 ***
0.1320
7.51 ***
-0.4645
-6.38 ***
0.0939
2.10 **
-0.2757
-8.30 ***
0.1218
4.47 ***
1.9043
57.46 ***
1.2248
79.66 ***
0.1388
4.67 ***
-2.0342
-63.04 ***
Oxford Institute of Ageing
Application: Life Tables, Males
(1)
N
12,969
2,890
370
24,158
3,360
370
1,210
1,210
1,210
1,680
100,000
(2)
EDU
1
1
1
2
2
3
2
3
4
4
2.5
OXFORD INSTITUTE
OF AGEING
(3)
W
1
1
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0.9
(4)
C
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
1
0
1
0.8
(5)
H
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0.9
(6)
LE
33.5
31.3
32.2
31.0
29.0
23.4
24.1
24.2
20.7
21.6
29.9
(7)
WLE
15.9
14.7
7.7
13.3
12.4
1.1
1.1
1.1
0.6
0.6
11.7
(8)
CLE
19.2
14.5
9.5
16.4
12.0
1.8
7.2
7.2
1.1
5.8
14.5
(9)
HLE
25.9
25.0
24.5
23.0
22.5
6.5
6.2
5.5
5.0
4.2
20.5
Oxford Institute of Ageing
Application: Life Tables, Females
(1)
N
12,690
1,470
8,360
1,550
4,260
3,410
310
230
540
1,320
100,000
(2)
EDU
2
2
1
1
3
4
2
1
3
4
2.7
OXFORD INSTITUTE
OF AGEING
(3)
W
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.8
(4)
C
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0.8
(5)
H
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0.8
(6)
LE
38.9
39.9
38.7
39.7
39.6
29.7
28.0
27.8
27.4
25.6
36.4
(7)
WLE
12.1
4.0
13.6
5.3
3.7
1.1
1.6
2.2
1.4
0.9
9.3
(8)
CLE
12.7
7.3
14.0
8.4
6.8
4.6
1.3
1.7
1.1
0.9
9.7
(9)
HLE
28.0
27.8
27.7
27.3
27.2
7.8
7.7
7.5
7.0
5.5
23.2
Oxford Institute of Ageing
Application: Potential Gains from Employment
LE
Size
SEX EDU C
95
0
1
1
605
0
2
1
605
0
3
1
155
1
1
1
840
0
4
1
Average 0.6 3.0 0.7
75
1
1
0
280
0
4
0
375
0
2
0
235
0
3
0
185
0
1
0
OXFORD INSTITUTE
OF AGEING
H
0
0
0
0
0
0.6
1
1
1
1
1
Gap
6.1
5.7
5.5
6.7
5.5
3.3
-3.8
-0.8
-0.8
-0.9
-0.9
WLE
Gain
6.3
6.2
5.9
-1.1
5.4
0.6
-3.5
-1.0
-1.8
-2.0
-4.4
Gap
10.6
9.0
9.1
8.3
7.6
7.9
6.6
6.7
7.0
7.0
7.0
Gain
9.7
8.3
8.3
7.6
7.1
4.0
0.1
0.1
-0.6
-0.8
-2.1
Oxford Institute of Ageing
Application: Potential Gains from Health Improvement
LE
Size
SEX EDU C
115
1
1
0
155
1
1
0
425
1
2
0
1,005
1
3
0
270
1
3
0
Average 0.6 3.0 0.5
1,025
0
3
1
45
0
3
1
185
0
2
1
465
0
1
1
95
0
1
1
OXFORD INSTITUTE
OF AGEING
H
0
1
1
1
0
0.8
1
0
0
1
0
Gap
8.0
7.5
7.3
7.3
8.2
2.5
1.2
-5.4
-5.4
1.1
-5.4
WLE
Gain
9.2
12.9
13.0
13.0
6.9
3.4
2.5
-9.4
-9.9
0.0
-10.0
Gap
3.6
2.7
2.1
2.0
2.7
2.4
3.2
2.5
2.4
3.3
2.3
Gain
10.7
10.2
9.4
9.2
9.1
1.4
-8.3
-8.6
-8.7
-9.6
-10.0
Oxford Institute of Ageing
Summary of Findings
• Attrition, state dependence and initial conditions are all
important factors to take into account when analysing
population dynamics based on the BHPS.
• Cohabitation has very different effects for males and
females
• Our model has good a fit and does a good job in replicating
aggregate population figures, but estimates are shaky in
small subgroups.
OXFORD INSTITUTE
OF AGEING
Oxford Institute of Ageing
Summary of Findings II
• There is considerable variation in the effects of
employment and disability transitions for different
subgroups of the population.
• Overall, disabled people seem to benefit much more from
an employment status change than able-bodied individuals.
• No independent time trends observed in the data.
OXFORD INSTITUTE
OF AGEING
Oxford Institute of Ageing
Thank you for listening!
OXFORD INSTITUTE
OF AGEING