SIXTH FRAMEWORK PROGRAMME
[6.1]
[ Sustainable Energy Systems]
Generalisation & Aggregation
Philipp PREISS
Universitaet Stuttgart
Brussels, February 17, 2009
Impact Pathway Approach
Emissions
Transport and
chemical
Transformation
Differences
of Physical
Physical
Impacts
Impacts
Calculation is
made twice: with
and without
project!
Monetary
Evaluation
Trade-off: Accuracy vs. Applicability
●
Ideally, site specific marginal damage costs are calculated
●
However,
i.
Policy questions need more general answers, such as,
external costs per kWh from coal fired power stations, i.e.
an average for country or EU
ii. Input data is not site specific, for example, emissions from up- and
downstream processes for construction of photovoltaic
iii. Damage factors, such as [Euro per tonne SO2] are needed as input for
different models (energy, economic, etc.)
iv. Sophisticated dispersions models are costly in CPU time
●
Solution:  Site dependent, i.e. country specific damage factors
Regional Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling
Regional modelling with EMEP/MSC-West Eulerian dispersion model from
MET.NO 
Source-Receptor (SR)-matrices for
EU27 + 12 + 5 maritime divided in 66 sub-regions
- 5 different meteorological years  averaging the results
- 2 different background scenarios = present & future emissions
- emissions form all sources and high stacks separately
Example: one SR-matrix:
 due to 15% emission reduction of SO2 in one region
 concentration increment prim. and sec. pollutant
in each 50 x 50 km grid cell
 delta concentration per unit of emission
 Generalisation & Aggregation [Euro per tonne]
Sketch
Source Receptor Matrices Approach
Background Emissions
(SO2, NOx, NH3, NMVOC)
grid for Europe
ca. 50km * 50km
a b c d e f
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
g
ΔConc.
ozone
ΔConc.
sulphates
a
-15% SO2 in
sub-region
4,d
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
-15% NOx
in subregion 4,d
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
c
d
e
f
g
a
&
a
-15% xy
in subregion i,j
b
b
c
d
e
f
……….
c
d
e
f
g
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
&...
a
g
&
b
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
b
c
d
e
f
g
&...
SR-matrices for 66 sub-regions
Prim. & sec. pollutants [µg/m3] [mg / m2] [ppb*day]
Shortcut
Comment
aNH4
ammonium particles (ammonium nitrate and sulphate)
aNO3
nitrate part. With diameter below 2.5µm
DDEP_OXN
total dry deposition of oxidized nitrogen
DDEP_RDN
total dry deposition of reduced nitrogen
DDEP_SOX
total dry deposition of sulphur
pNO3
nitrate part. with diameter above 2.5 a. below 10 µm
SIA
secondary inorganic aerosols
SO4
sulphate, includes also ammonium sulphate
SOMO35
sum Over Means Over 35 ppb
tNO3
tNO3 is total coarse and fine nitrate aerosols
WDEP_OXN
wet deposition of oxidized nitrogen
WDEP_RDN
wet deposition of reduced nitrogen
WDEP_SOx
wet deposition of sulphur
PPM25 & PPMco
primary particles with diameter below 2.5 µm
Example for Sulphates Exposure due to
1 t SO2 Emission in S-Germany
 AccExp SO42[pers * µg/m³]
 0.16 YOLL
 ca. 6,400 Euro
Euro per Tonne (all sectors) in 2025 (selected countries)
70,000
PPM2.5
60,000
NMVOC
NOX
50,000
SO2
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
BE
DE
AT
UK
IT
FR
PL
EU27
CZ
RU
SK
NOS
TR
UA
BLS
HR
PT
AL
MED
BY
GR
ES
BG
IE
SE
EE
FI
NO
0
ATL
External costs [Euro per Tonne]
80,000