2014/15 and USDA Forecast for 2015/16 and 2016/17

“Potential and benefits of using soy
products in aquaculture production”
J. E. van Eys
1
Presentation:
 Current world aqua production.
 Use of fish meal in Aqua diets and the problems
(sustainability) associated with this.
 Issues associated with replacing fishmeal by plant
proteins.
 Replacement of FM by soy and other plant proteins
 Formulation issues
 Conclusions.
2
Aquaculture versus Capture Production; 1950 - 2022
200
180
Capture
~60%
Aquaculture
160
~50%
140
100
80
60
40
20
Source: Fishstat, Globefish Highlights (2013) & OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2013 - 2022
2030
2020
2016
2010
2000
1990
1980
1970
1960
0
1950
Millions MT
120
3
EUROPEAN TRENDS ……. AND OUTLOOK ……
200K
EU28 aquaculture:
Five species make
up 90% of
production.
Salmonids, marine
fish and cyprinids
consume over 60%
of fish meal & over
80% of fish oil used
for aquaculture.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Reliance on these
resources is not
sustainable …
4
AQUACULTURE
INDUSTRY
OVERVIEW
Total Farmed
Aqua Species
Production by
Major
Producing
Countries
(MT; 2016)
2016
Rank
1
6
8
12
18
19
26
27
29
31
33
39
40
Country
China
Norway
Egypt
USA
Turkey
UK
Russ. Fed.
Greece
Spain
Italy
France
Germany
Denmark
tonnes
(*1000)
21996
1192
992
493
312
193
136
126
90
80
64
45
48
25767
%
49.80
2.70
2.25
1.12
0.71
0.44
0.31
0.29
0.20
0.18
0.15
0.10
0.11
58
6
Presentation:
 Current world aqua production.
 Use of fish meal in Aqua diets and the problems
(sustainability) associated with this.
 Issues associated with replacing fishmeal by plant
proteins.
 Replacement of FM by soy and other plant proteins
 Formulation issues
 Conclusions.
7
Production and value chain of fish meal and Fish oil
Fish Oil Yield:
2.5 – 4.5 %
Fishmeal Yield
22 - 24 %
8
Global Consumption of Fish Oil by major Aquaculture spp. group.
(FAO, 2012; based on Tacon et al ., 2011)
9
Global Consumption of Fish Meal by major Aquaculture spp. group.
(FAO, 2012; based on Tacon et al ., 2011)
10
Actual and predicted reduction in fishmeal use relative to the global
production of compound aqua feed.
Total Aqua feed
Prod.: 40 MMT
Adapted from Tacon, A.G.J., Hasan, M.R. and Metian, M. 2011.
11
Reduction in FM inclusion in compound aqua feed of different fish spp.
Tilapia
Catfishes
Trout
Miscellaneous Freshwater fish
10
5
40
55
5
7
25
30
1
2
12
8
Salmon
Marine Fish
45
28
25
29
12
12
* Projected; Adapted from Tacon, A.G.J., Hasan, M.R. and Metian, M. 2011.
12
Presentation:
 Current world aqua production.
 Use of fish meal in Aqua diets and the problems
(sustainability) associated with this.
 Issues associated with replacing fishmeal by plant
proteins.
 Replacement of FM by soy and other plant proteins
 Formulation issues
 Conclusions.
13
Feed Ingredients
Ranges in feed
ingredient usage for
major aquaculture
species.
Inclusion level in
Aqua feed, %.
Adapted from Tacon, A.G.J., Hasan, M.R.
and Metian, M. 2011.
14
15
Share of Fish Meal in Salmon and Shrimp Feed.
Source: OECD and FAO, 2016
16
Sustainability of Fishmeal and Fish Oil.
• With dwindling supplies of Fish meal incorporation in aqua diets will
need to be reduced by > 5 – 10 %/year (growth rate of “carnivorous”
aqua production).
• At more than twice the price ratio FM:soybean financial incentives are
significant
• A substitution of > 10% of FM and FO is expected/needed.
18
GLOBAL DEMAND GROWTH FOR CORN, COTTON, SOYBEANS, RICE AND WHEAT
1990/91 – 2014/15 AND USDA FORECAST FOR 2015/16 AND 2016/17
SOYBEANS DEMAND UP 213%, CORN UP BY 113%, WHEAT UP ONLY BY 30%
250%
325
MMT
Percentage Change
200%
150%
100%
50%
0%
Corn
Sobeans
Rice
Wheat
19
GLOBAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION OF SOYBEANS
2000/01 – 2014/15 AND USDA FORECAST FOR 2015/16 AND 2016/17
350
Production: y = 9.0x + 161.69
300
320
Consumption: y = 9.05x + 157.77
MMT
250
200
176
172
185
184
197
191
328
324
301
261
216
205
318
313
221
215
237
226
230
221
265
251
238
258
269
262
283
276
240
221
212
189
187
150
100
Production
Consumption
20
RUSSIA’S PRODUCTION AND IMPORTS OF SOYMEAL
2000/01 – 2014/15 AND USDA FORECAST FOR 2015/16 AND 2016/17
3500
3,152
3000
3,231
2,876
2,679
MT 000
2500
2000
1,535
1,639
1,734
1,749
1500
1,176
1000
500
814
285
171
0
2000/01
320 272
353
2001/02
2002/03
284
299
362
2003/04
429
533
2004/05
530
607
2005/06
825 790
632
478
2006/07
2007/08
Production
2008/09
416
455
2009/10
2010/11
548
2011/12
631
2012/13
550
542
550
600
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17
Imports
22
0.0
0
Jun-99
Dec-99
Dec-98
Jun-99
Jun-98
Dec-98
Fishmeal Price (US Dollars per Metric Ton)
Dec-06
Dec-06
Jun-06
Jun-06
Dec-05
Dec-05
Jun-05
Jun-05
Dec-04
Dec-04
Jun-04
Jun-04
Dec-03
Dec-03
Jun-03
Jun-03
Dec-02
Dec-02
Jun-02
Jun-02
Dec-01
Dec-01
Jun-01
Dec-00
Jun-01
Jun-00
Dec-00
Dec-99
Jun-00
Soybean Meal Price (US Dollars per Metric Ton)
Dec-16
Dec-16
Jun-16
Jun-16
Dec-15
Dec-15
Jun-15
Jun-15
Dec-14
Dec-14
Jun-14
Jun-14
Dec-13
2.0
Dec-13
Jun-13
Jun-13
Dec-12
Dec-12
Jun-12
Jun-12
Dec-11
Dec-11
Jun-11
Jun-11
Dec-10
Dec-10
Jun-10
Jun-10
Dec-09
Dec-09
Jun-09
Jun-09
Dec-08
Dec-08
Jun-08
Jun-08
Dec-07
Dec-07
Jun-07
Jun-07
8.0
Dec-97
Jun-98
Jun-97
Dec-97
Jun-97
Dec-96
Dec-96
Ten-year Ratio; FM/SBM price (USD)
Evolution of FM and SBM prices in USD over 10 years (CBT)
7.0
2500
6.0
2000
5.0
1500
4.0
+ 125 %*
1000
3.0
y = 0.0002x - 5.299
R² = 0.2188
500
+ 25 %*
1.0
* Avg: 2016/1996
24
Presentation:
 Current world aqua production.
 Use of fish meal in Aqua diets and the problems
(sustainability) associated with this.
 Issues associated with replacing fishmeal by plant
proteins.
 Replacement of FM by soy and other plant proteins
 Formulation issues
 Conclusions.
25
Why Fish meal?
……………Is it (really) needed (at current proportions) ?
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Considered most natural ingredient in aqua diets
High nutrient (esp. AA and FAs) concentration
Near perfect nutrient composition
No ANF
Palatable.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Preference – Not Science-based
Soy-fed fish; Naturally
Alternatives can meet requirements
Nutrient needs can be formulated
Technological treatment
Palatable- attractants need to be defined
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Determine spp.-specific nutrient requirements
Define nutrient concentration of ingredients
Determine limits to ingredient inclusion
(Heat, pressure ) treatment of ingredients
Add attractants
US -Soy
26
Nutrient Composition of Soybean Protein Supplements
Used in Fish Feeds
Soybean Products
Composition
Soybeans
whole
heat treated
Soybean
Meal
mech. extd.
Soybean
Meal
solv. extd.
Soybean Meal
_______________________
_____________________
_____________________
______________________
_____________________
Dry Matter (%)
90.0
90.0
89.0
90.0
91.5
Protein (%)
38.0
42.9
44.6
47.5
65.0
Ether Extract (%)
18.0
4.8
1.4
0.9
0.9
Crude Fiber (%)
5.0
5.9
6.2
3.4
4.6
Ash (%)
4.6
6.0
6.5
5.8
6.2
NFE (%)
24.4
30.4
30.3
32.4
14.8
__________________________________
solv. extd.
Soy Protein
Conc.
w/o hulls
SPC
27
Essential Amino Acid Contents
of Protein Sources
for Fish Feeds
Name
IFN 2
Arginine
Histidine
Isoleucine
Leucine
Lysine
Methionine
Cystine
Phenylalanine
Tyrosine
Threonine
Tryptophan
Valine
1
2
Menhaden
5-02-009
6.1
2.4
4.7
7.3
7.7
2.9
0.9
4.0
3.2
4.1
1.1
5.3
Amino Acid Content as % of Protein
Soybean
Peanut
Cottonseed
Rapeseed
5-04-612
5-03-650
5-01-621
5-03-871
7.4
2.5
5.0
7.5
6.4
1.4
1.7
4.9
3.4
3.9
1.4
5.1
9.5
2.0
3.7
5.6
3.7
0.9
1.5
4.2
3.2
2.4
1.0
3.9
10.2
2.7
3.7
5.7
4.1
1.4
1.9
5.9
2.0
3.4
1.4
4.6
5.6
2.7
3.7
6.8
5.4
1.9
0.8
3.8
2.2
4.2
1.2
4.8
Corn Gluten
5-28-242
3.4
2.3
4.2
16.8
1.7
2.9
1.7
6.6
5.3
3.6
.5
5.1
Adapted from National Research Council, 1982
International Feed Number
28
Digestibility of Crude Protein & Essential Amino Acids
in Solvent Extracted SBM.
Rainbow trout
Common Carp
Red Seabream
100
98
96
94
92
90
88
86
84
%
Crude
Protein
Total
Amino
Acid
Arg
His
Ilu
Leu
Lys
Met
Cys
Phe
Tyr
Thr
Val
29
19 soy products
Rick Barrows
USDA/ Agricultural Research32
Service
final body weight, g/fish
EXAMPLE: GROWTH RESPONSES OF JUVENILE TILAPIA TO GRADED LEVELS OF
SUPPLEMENTAL DL-METHIONINE IN LOW FISH MEAL – HIGH SBM DIETS.
85
83
81
79
77
75
73
71
69
67
65
y = 68.4 + 14.4 * (1 – e (-5.67 * (X – 0.48)))
R2 = 0.94
95 % of asympt. response: 1.01 % Met
equivalent:
3.1 g/100g CP
DL-Methionine
0.45
0.65
Positive control
0.85
NRC, 2011:
0.70 % Met
Santiago & Lovell, 1988: 2.7 g/100g CP
1.05
methionine, % of diet
33
EXAMPLE: FCR - RESPONSES OF JUVENILE TILAPIA TO GRADED LEVELS OF SUPPLEMENTAL
DL-METHIONINE IN LOW FISH MEAL – HIGH SBM DIETS.
1.16
feed per gain, g/g
1.14
DL-Methionine
Positive control
1.12
1.10
1.08
1.06
1.04
1.02
1.00
0.95
Y= 1.137 – 0.120 * (1 – e (-4.73 * (X – 0.97)))
1.15
1.35
Met+Cys, % of diet
1.55
R2 = 0.95
95 % of asympt. response:
>1.60 % Met+Cys
equivalent: > 4.9 g/100g CP
NRC, 2011:
1.00 % Met.
34
Santiago & Lovell, 1988: 3.2 g/100g CP
Evaluation of the partial substitution of dietary FM by SBM and a synthetic
amino acids mix in Sea bass and Sea bream diets – A tank trial.
100
95
FI, %
105
90
85
80
Contr.
Test
Sea bass
SGR
FCR
FI, %Iwt
SGR/FCR
SGR/FCR
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
Sea bream performance on
Fish or Soy diets + AA suppl.
1.6
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
92
90
88
FI, %
Sea bass performance on
Fish or Soy diets + AA suppl.
86
84
82
80
Contr.
Sea bream
Test
SGR
FCR
FI, %Iwt
35
From 42 % FM, 9.0% FO ; 10% HiPro SBM  20 % FM, 11% FO ; 30 % HiPro SBM
Performance of Sea bream fed SBM supplemented
with AA for 12 weeks on high soy diets.
2,50
SGR
FCR
PER
2,00
%/d
1,50
1,00
% SBM:
0,50
% FM
% Lys
% Meth
25
30
2.4
1.0
30
11
3.1
1.2
30
0
3.1
1.2
30
0
2.5
0.9
30
0
3.1
1.2
35
0
3.1
1.2
FM 30
FM 10
FM 0A
FM 0B
FM 0C
FM 0D
0,00
2011; Caditec/Ctaqua.
36
Presentation:
 Current world aqua production.
 Use of fish meal in Aqua diets and the problems
(sustainability) associated with this.
 Issues associated with replacing fishmeal by plant
proteins.
 Replacement of FM by soy and other plant proteins
 Formulation issues
 Conclusions.
38
Economic evaluation of replacing FM by soy protein:
39
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1100
1000
900
800
Formula cost, €
Inclusion % of FM or soy products
Evolution of Formula Cost with Replacement of FM
by Soy - Sea bream and Sea bass diets*.
700
600
500
30
25
20
15
10
FM Inclusion , %
5
0
FM
SBM
SPC
Formula cost, €
40
* Estimations based on Dec. 30, 2016, Rotterdam prices.
Overeall Conclusions:
1.FM and F-oil is in limited supply and alternatives for aqua
feeds need to be developed (to remain viable and
competitive).
2.Plant protein sources can be used to replace fishmeal –
especially Soy proteins (notably in fresh water diets –
preferably technologically treated eg. extrusion).
3.This replacement requires a more complex and detailed
formulation – based on digestible nutrients.
4.Formulation and feeding programs need to be adjusted.
41
Many Thanks.
Questions.
42