The Role of ICTs in Integrating
Indigenous and Sceintific
Drought Forecasts
Dr. Muthoni Masinde, Central University of Technology, FS
GUIDING QUOTES
• Throughout human history, departures from the seasonal
rhythms of climate often provided the difference
between wealth and poverty, feast and famine, health
and disease, and even life and death. [Stern and
Easterling, 1999]
• Disasters are first and foremost a “local” phenomenon.
Local communities are on the frontlines of both the
immediate impact of a disaster and the initial,
emergency response, which, experience has shown, is
crucial for saving the most lives. (UN-ISDR, 2007)
BACKGROUND INFORMATION
• Droughts are Chronic in Africa;
Africa contributed 56% of
droughts that occurred between
2003 and 2012; they affected
26% of her population.
• According to the United Nations
Development’s
Programme
(UNDP) Human Development
Report of 2013, Africa contributes
35 of the 45 poorest countries
• Farmers continue to consult their
indigenous Knowledge Forecasts
(IKFs)
• The Seasonal Climate Forecasts
(SCFs), the most commonly used
form of forecast are too ‘course’
and supply-driven; dissemination
format & channels are ineffective
• Very sparse network of weather
stations in most African countries
makes downscaling of forecasts
difficult
SOLUTION
• ITIKI
- Information Technology and Indigenous
Knowledge with Intelligence
• A generic solution designed around 3 ICTs (Wireless
Sensor Networks, Mobile Phones and Artificial
Intelligence) to tackle the challenges (of scaling-up
and scaling-down) facing the IKFs and SCFs
integration initiatives.
ITIKI’S CHARACTERISTICS
• Takes the form an Integrated Droughts Early Warning
System
1. Risk Knowledge
• Systematically collect data and
undertake risk assessments
4. Response Capability
• Build national and
community response
capabilities
2. Monitoring and Warning
Service
• Develop hazard monitoring
and early warning services
3. Dissemination and Communication
• Communicate risk information and
early warnings
ITIKI’S Architecture
HOW ITIKI WORKS:
Drought Monitoring Using EDI
HOW ITIKI WORKS - Drought
Monitoring
HOW ITIKI WORKS - Drought
Forecasting Using ANNs
HOW ITIKI WORKS – Forecasts
Dissemination
ITIKI
Current Status & Future
Developments
• Though forecasting droughts
• English-Lesotho Translator
alone
cannot
eradicate
• Automation of IK collection and
droughts in South Africa,
representation using FCMs and
relevant, accurate and timely
Machine Vision
forecasts can be used to
• Development of Semanticmitigate effects of the droughts
based middleware for IK data
• System still a prototype:
integration
• Can be used to conserve IK
• Weather Lore Verification
• Needs to anchored within a
Tool
relevant institution, e.g. South
Africa Weather Service
WEATHER LORE VERIFICATION TOOL
THANK YOU
Muthoni Masinde - [email protected]
www.muthonimasinde.net