Total energy production in Alberta
16000
actual
14000
forecast
Petajoules
12000
10000
Conventional natural gas
8000
6000
Mined and in situ bitumen
4000
Conventional heavy oil
2000
Conventional L&M oil
0
1996
Coal
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Alberta supply of crude oil and equivalent
500
actual
forecast
400
Non upgraded bitumen
103m3/d
300
200
SCO
100
Pentanes plus
Heavy
Light-medium
0
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Total marketable gas production and demand
250
10.7
actual
forecast
7.1
150
5.3
100
3.6
50
1.8
Tcf
109m3
200
24%
25%
27%
35%
42%
0
0
1996
1998
2000
Residential demand
2002
2004
Commercial demand
2006
2008
2010
Other Alberta demand
2012
2014
Alberta gas removals
60
$US/bbl
55
50
45
40
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug Sep
Figure 1.2 OPEC crude basket reference price
Oct
Nov Dec
100
600
500
$US/m3
400
forecast
80
60
300
40
200
100
0
20
0
1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Figure 1.3 Price of WTI at Chicago
$US/bbl
actual
100
600
forecast
500
Cdn$/m3
400
80
60
300
40
200
100
0
20
0
1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Figure 1.4 Average price of oil at Alberta wellhead
Cdn$/bbl
actual
100
Cdn$/bbl
80
60
40
20
0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Light-medium
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Heavy
Figure 1.5 2005 Average monthly reference prices of
Alberta crudes
Nov
Bitumen
Dec
12
actual
forecast
10
$Cdn/gigajoule
8
6
4
2
0
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
Figure 1.7 Average price of natural gas at plant gate
2013
2015
Drilling, casing, and completion cost estimates (PSAC 2004 and 2006 Well Cost Studies)
Percentage
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
9.6
9.1
8.3
4.2
1997
6.8
7.2
7.7
4.1
1.6
1996
7.6
1998
5.5
5.2
1999
2000
3.1
1.8
2001
2002
Percentage
Real GDP growth
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
6.1
6.4
5.0
1.6
1.6
1996
1997
2.9
2.9
2004
2.7
4.7
2.6
2000 2001
Inflation rate
2002
2.8
1.9
2003 2004
2.2
2005
Prime rate on loans
82.5
80
Cents
4.4
4.0
85
75
2005
5.8
2.2
1998 1999
2003
6.8
7.3
4.2
1.7
2.0
7.2
Unemployment rate
6.6
0.9
7.6
76.8
73.3
72.2
70
71.4
67.4
67.3
67.3
65
64.6
63.7
60
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Exchange rate
Figure 1.9 Canadian economic indicators
100
actual
forecast
billions of Cdn$
80
60
40
20
0
1995
Other
1997
1999
Residential
2001
2003
2005
Coal and metal mining
Figure 1.10 Alberta real investment
2007
2009
2011
Conventional oil and gas
2013
2015
Oil sands
30
25
109 m3
20
15
10
5
0
Initial reserves
Crude oil
Remaining reserves
Crude bitumen
Figure 2.2. Comparison of Alberta’s crude oil and crude
bitumen reserves
100%
Percentage
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Conventional crude oil & pentanes plus
2003
2004
2005
SCO & bitumen
Figure 2.8. Alberta crude oil and equivalent production
500
actual
forecast
400
103 m3/d
300
Surface mining
200
100
In situ
0
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Figure 2.9. Alberta crude bitumen production
2012
2014
80
8000
60
6000
40
4000
20
2000
0
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Producing Wells
Production
Figure 2.10. Total in situ bitumen production and
producing bitumen wells
Production (103 m3/d)
Number of producing wells
10000
300
actual
forecast
103 m3/d
200
Synthetic crude oil
100
Synthetic Crude Oil
0
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Figure 2.11. Alberta synthetic crude oil production
2014
500
actual
forecast
400
Nonupgraded
bitumen removals
from Alberta
103 m3/d
300
200
SCO removals from
Alberta
Synthetic Crude
Oil
100
Alberta demand
(mainly SCO)
0
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Figure 2.14. Alberta demand and disposition of
crude bitumen and SCO
2012
2014
800
700
600
106 m3
500
400
300
Heavy
200
100
Light-medium
0
1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
Figure 3.1. Remaining established reserves of crude oil
25
20
106 m3
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
New waterflood
Waterflood revisions
Figure 3.3. Annual changes to waterflood reserves
60
50
40
106 m3
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Additions
Revisions
Figure 3.2. Annual changes in conventional crude oil reserves
Total number of pools
Initial reserves
Remaining reserves
(103m3)
(103m3)
(103m3)
Figure 3.4. Distribution of oil reserves by size
Initial established reserves (10 6 m3)
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
Average
Figure 3.5. Oil pool size by discovery year
1995
2000
Median
2005
1400
1200
Reserves (106 m3)
1000
800
600
400
200
ni
an
n
M
id
dl
e
D
ev
o
on
ia
pp
e
U
M
is
si
ss
rD
ev
ip
p
el
lo
rm
ia
nB
Pe
Initial established reserves
ia
n
y
c
si
Tr
ia
s
si
c
ra
s
Ju
ac
e
Cr
et
w
er
Lo
U
pp
e
rC
re
t
ac
eo
ou
s
us
0
Remaining established reserves
Figure 3.7. Geological distribution of reserves of
conventional crude oil
Remaining established oil reserves (10 6 m3)
1400
Year 1970
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Cumulative production (106 m3)
Figure 3.9. Alberta’s remaining established oil Reserves
versus cumulative production
3500
3200
Ultimate potential (3130)
3000
actual
forecast
2800
Actual as of December 31, 2005
106m3
2600
2400
2200
2000
1800
1600
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
Figure 3.10. Growth in initial established reserves
of crude oil
160
140
103 m3/day
120
100
PSAC 8
PSAC 7
80
PSAC 5
60
PSAC 4
40
PSAC 3
20
PSAC 2
PSAC 1
0
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Figure 3.14. Conventional crude oil production by modified
PSAC area
2005
250
40000
200
30000
150
20000
100
10000
50
0
Production (10 3 m3/d)
Number of wells
50000
0
1973
1977
1981
1985
Producing wells
1989
1993
1997
2001
2005
Production
Figure 3.15. Total crude oil production and producing oil wells
200
20000
160
15000
120
10000
80
5000
40
m3/d
Number of wells
25000
0
0
0.0-2.0
2.1-5.0
5.1-8.0
8.1-20.0
20.1-50.0 50.1-100.0
100.1+
3
Production category (m /d)
Producing wells
Average rate
Figure 3.16. Crude oil well productivity in 2005
160
Production (103m3/d)
140
120
100
Pre-1996
7%
10%
80
8%
5%
5%
6%
3%
3%
5%
4%
60
40
20
0
1996
44%
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Figure 3.17. Total conventional crude oil production by
drilled year
2005
%
of total
production
from oil
wells
4000
3500
103 bbl/d
3000
Texas onshore
2500
2000
1500
Alberta crude oil
1000
500
Louisiana onshore
0
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Figure 3.18. Comparison of crude oil production
$100
5000
forecast
4000
$80
3000
$60
2000
$40
1000
$20
$0
0
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
Wells placed on production
2008
2010
2012
2014
WTI @ Chicago
Figure 3.19. Alberta crude oil price and well activity
US$/bbl
Number of wells
actual
180
actual
forecast
Production (103m3/d)
150
120
Heavy
90
60
30
Light-medium
0
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Figure 3.20. Alberta daily production of crude oil
2012
2014
35000
Refinery capacities (m3/d)
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
Imperial
Edmonton
Petro-Canada
Edmonton
Shell
Scotford
Husky
Lloydminster
Parkland
Bowden
Figure 3.21. Capacity and location of Alberta refineries
180
actual
forecast
Production (103m3/d)
150
120
90
Crude oil removals from
Alberta
60
30
Alberta demand
0
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Figure 3.22. Alberta demand and disposition of crude oil
500
actual
forecast
400
Non upgraded bitumen
103m3/d
300
200
SCO
100
Pentanes plus
Heavy
Light-medium
0
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Figure 3.23. Alberta supply of crude oil and equivalent
2014
100%
actual
forecast
Percentage
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Conventional crude oil & pentanes plus
2010
2012
2014
SCO & bitumen
Figure 3.24. Alberta crude oil and equivalent production
25
109 m3
20
15
10
5
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Figure 4.3 Coalbed methane production forecast
180
160
140
109 m3
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1974
1979
1984
Additions
1989
1994
1999
2004
Production
Figure 5.1. Annual reserves additions and production of
conventional marketable gas
2000
1600
109 m3
1200
800
400
0
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Figure 5.2. Remaining conventional marketable gas reserves
140
120
100
109 m3
80
60
40
20
0
-20
1999
2000
New
2001
2002
Development
2003
2004
2005
Revisions
Figure 5.3. New, development, and revisions to conventional
marketable gas reserves
Total number of pools
Initial reserves
Remaining reserves
(106m3)
(109m3)
(109m3)
Figure 5.5. Distribution of conventional gas reserves by size
Established reserves (10 6 m3)
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004
Average
Median
Figure 5.6. Conventional gas pools by size and discovery year
2000
1200
800
400
ni
an
n
M
id
dl
e
De
vo
on
ia
rD
ev
Up
pe
M
is
si
ss
ip
p
llo
rm
ia
nBe
Pe
Initial marketable reserves
ia
n
y
c
si
Tr
ia
s
si
c
ra
s
Ju
ac
e
Cr
et
we
r
Lo
rC
re
t
ac
eo
ou
s
us
0
Up
pe
109 m3
1600
Remaining marketable reserves
Figure 5.7. Geological distribution of conventional marketable
gas reserves
2000
1600
1200
109 m3
Sweet natural gas
800
400
Sour natural gas
0
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
Figure 5.8. Remaining conventional marketable reserves of
sweet and sour gas
35
30
80%
60%
45
90
100
50
60
40%
20%
20
Percentage of component
10
35
15
10
100%
0%
Methane
Ethane
Removed at field plants
Propane
Butanes
Removed at straddle plants
Pentanes plus
Marketable gas
Figure 5.9. Expected recovery of conventional natural gas
components
7
6.5
Ultimate potential (6.52)
actual
6
forecast
1012m3 at 37.4 MJ/m3
5.5
5
Actual as of December 31, 2005
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
Figure 5.10. Growth in initial established reserves of
conventional marketable gas
7000
6000
Ultimate potential based on 2004 study
109 m3
5000
4000
3000
Remaining reserves
2000
1000
0
1973
Production
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
Figure 5.11. Conventional gas ultimate potential
2000
2003
4500
4000
Gas in place (10 9 m3)
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Upper
Cretaceous
Lower
Cretaceous
Ultimate potential
Jurassic
Triassic
Mississippian
Devonian
Discovered gas in place
Figure 5.13. Conventional gas in place by geological period
14000
12000
Number of wells
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
1995
1996
1997
Drilled
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Connected
Figure 5.15. Successful conventional gas wells drilled and
connected
200
180
%
of total
production
from oil
wells
160
140
109 m3
120
PSAC 8
2%
PSAC 7
PSAC 6
4%
3%
PSAC 5
12%
PSAC 4
5%
PSAC 3
20%
PSAC 2
38%
PSAC 1
5%
100
80
60
40
20
Gas from oil wells
0
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
10%
2005
Connection year
Figure 5.18. Marketable gas production by modified PSAC area
250
80000
200
60000
150
40000
100
20000
50
0
0
1995 1996 1997
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Producing wells
2003 2004 2005
Production
Figure 5.19. Conventional marketable gas production and
number of producing wells
Production (10 9 m3)
Number of producing wells
100000
70000
400
300
50000
40000
200
30000
20000
100
10000
0
0
0.0-2.0
2.1-5.0
5.1-8.0
8.1-20.0
20.1-50.0 50.1-100.0
3
3
Production category (10 m /d)
Producing wells
Average rate
Figure 5.20. Natural gas well productivity in 2005
100.1+
Production (109 m3)
Number of producing wells
60000
200
180
Production (109m3/d)
160
140
12
1996
17
120
10
Pre-1996
100
8
7
80
6
4
4
3
2
60
40
27
20
Gas from oil wells
0
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Connection year
Figure 5.21 Raw gas production by connection year
2005
%
of total
production
from oil
wells
30
Productivity (103 m3/d)
25
20
15
10
5
0
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Alberta
Alberta excluding PSAC Area 3
PSAC Area 3 (Southeastern Alberta)
Figure 5.22 Average initial natural gas well
productivity in Alberta
2003
2004
20000
$10
forecast
16000
$8
12000
$6
8000
$4
4000
$2
0
$0
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
New well connections
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Alberta plant gate price
Figure 5.23. Alberta natural gas well activity and price
$Cdn/GJ
Number of wells
actual
200
7.1
forecast
150
5.3
100
3.6
50
1.8
0
0
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Figure 5.24. Conventional marketable gas production
2014
Tcf
109m3
actual
400
109 m3
300
200
100
0
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Figure 5.25. Historical volumes “available for permitting”
12
10
Tcf
8
Texas onshore
6
4
Louisiana onshore
2
Alberta
0
1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004
Figure 5.26. Comparison of natural gas production
14000
actual
forecast
12000
106m3
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
Process gas from upgrading operations
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Gas from bitumen wells
Figure 5.27. Gas production from bitumen upgrading and
bitumen wells
250
actual
forecast
200
109m3
150
100
50
0
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
Conventional marketable gas
Process gas from upgrading bitumen
2006
2008
2010
Coalbed methane
Gas from bitumen wells
Figure 5.28. Total gas production in Alberta
2012
2014
2000
1500
106m3
1000
500
0
-500
-1000
-1500
Jan
Feb
Mar
2003
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
2004
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2005
Figure 5.30. Alberta natural gas storage injection/withdrawal
volumes
60
actual
forecast
50
Reprocessing plant shrinkage
Transportation
109 m3
40
Electricity generation
30
Other industrial
Industrial - petrochemical
20
Industrial – oil sands
10
Commercial
Residential
0
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Figure 5.31. Alberta marketable gas demand by sector
2014
25
actual
forecast
20
15
109 m3
Purchased gas
Produced gas from
bitumen
10
5
Process gas from
upgrading*
0
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Figure 5.32. Gas demand for bitumen recovery and upgrading
* Some 1.2 109m3 of process gas not shown on this chart is used for electricity generation (2006-2015).
250
10.7
actual
forecast
7.1
150
5.3
100
3.6
50
1.8
Tcf
109m3
200
24%
25%
27%
35%
42%
0
0
1996
1998
2000
Residential demand
2002
2004
Commercial demand
2006
2008
2010
Other Alberta demand
2012
2014
Alberta gas removals
Figure 5.33. Total marketable gas production and demand
150
Liquid volume (10 6 m3)
120
90
60
30
0
Ethane
Propane
Reserves
Butanes
Pentanes Plus
Annual production
Figure 6.1. Remaining established NGL reserves expected to be
extracted from conventional gas and annual production
Established reserves (10 6 m3)
250
200
150
100
50
0
1994
1995
1996
Ethane
1997
1998
1999
Propane
2000
2001
Butanes
2002
2003
2004
Pentanes plus
Figure 6.2. Remaining established reserves of conventional
natural gas liquids
2005
80
actual
forecast
70
60
103 m3/d
50
40
30
20
10
0
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
Supply
2009
2011
2013
2015
Alberta demand*
* Excludes solvent flood volumes
Figure 6.4. Ethane supply and demand
50
actual
forecast
103 m3/d
40
30
20
10
0
1995
1997
1999
2001
Supply
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
Alberta demand*
* Excludes solvent flood volumes
Figure 6.5. Propane supply from natural gas and demand
25
actual
forecast
103 m3/d
20
15
10
5
0
1995
1997
1999
2001
Supply
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
Alberta demand*
* Excludes solvent flood volumes
Figure 6.6. Butanes supply from natural gas and demand
50
actual
forecast
103 m3/d
40
30
20
10
0
1995
1997
1999
2001
Supply
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
Alberta demand*
* Excludes solvent flood volumes
Figure 6.7. Pentanes plus supply from natural gas and demand
10
8
Refining and upgrading
106 t
6
4
2
Sour gas
0
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Figure 7.1. Sources of sulphur production
2010
2012
2014
700
600
103 t
500
400
300
200
100
0
2003
Syncrude
2004
Suncor
Figure 7.2. Sulphur production from oil sands
2005
Shell
5000
4000
103 t
3000
2000
1000
0
Australia
2003
Brazil
China
New
Zealand
South
Africa
2004
Figure 7.3. Canadian sulphur offshore exports
Others
2005
10
actual
forecast
8
Stockpile
106 t
6
4
Removed from Alberta
2
Alberta demand
0
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Figure 7.4. Sulphur demand and supply in Alberta
2012
2014
30
106 t
20
10
0
1874 1884 1894 1904 1914 1924 1934 1944 1954 1964 1974 1984 1994 2004
Subbituminous
Bituminous thermal
Figure 8.1 Total coal production
Bituminous metallurgical
40
actual
forecast
106 t
30
20
10
0
1996
1998
2000
Subbituminous
2002
2004
2006
Thermal bituminous
2008
2010
2012
2014
Metallurgical bituminous
Figure 8.3. Alberta marketable coal production