The Effect of Climate (Temperature) on Potato Production in Cyprus AGWATER Options for sustainable agricultural production and water use in Cyprus under global change Scientific Report 3 Sophocles Gregoriou and Eleftherios Konstantis Agricultural Research Institute, Nicosia, Cyprus January 2014 Table of Contents Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 2 Potato in the world ...................................................................................................................... 2 Potato in Cyprus .......................................................................................................................... 4 Swot Analysis of Cyprus Potato. ................................................................................................. 5 Effect of climatic conditions on potato ....................................................................................... 6 Plant growth ................................................................................................................................ 6 Material and methods ................................................................................................................. 8 Results - Conclusions .................................................................................................................. 9 Literature ................................................................................................................................... 15 1 The effect of climate (temperature) on potato production in Cyprus Introduction Agriculture in Cyprus is limited by highly variable climate conditions with precipitation being the major constraining factor. The downward trend of precipitation and therefore rising water price are setting new challenges. Potato crop as an irrigated crop is highly affected by these climatologically trends and therefore sustainability of irrigation forms a challenge. Aim of the project is to document and analyze available data in order to cover knowledge gaps and develop a model in order to compute sustainable irrigation water supplies, agricultural water use, crop yields and economic indicators. In the current project data from long term trials on potato are exploited for the assessment of the effect of climate (temperature) on the production of this highly important crop. Potato in the world The potato was first domesticated in the high Andes of South America around Lake Titicaca over a thousand years ago. Brought by the Spanish conquistadors from Peru to Europe in the mid-16th century, the potato was first grown as an exotic tropical plant and thought to have mysterious medicinal properties. Only some two centuries later, did the potato became part of the regular diet in Europe (FAO, 1995). Potato was brought to Europe on two occasions, to Spain in 1570 and to England between 1588 and 1593 (Hawkes, 1967). From these two introductions, potatoes were spread into nearly every part of the world (Hawkes, 1978a). The most important cultivated potatoes belong to the species, Solanum tuberosum L., 2n=4x=48. In addition to S. tuberosum some seven other cultivated species and over 160 wild species of potato, which may be diploids, triploids or pentaploids with somatic chromosome numbers 2n=24, 36, or 60, respectively, are generally recognized (Hawkes, 1978b). Potato is one of the most important crops worldwide and its importance is increasing as population of world increases. Correlation of grain crops with oil price underlines the importance of the crop 2 on food security. A remarkable fact about potato is its high yield per unit area, which benefits the crop against the fight for land due to the “war” between food and bio-fuels. Potato is the most important vegetable crop, and ranks in fourth place among the most important food crops, after wheat, rice and maize (FAOSTAT, 2010). Total production represents roughly half of the world’s annual output of all roots and tubers. The crop is eaten by over one billion people worldwide and is part of the diet of half a billion consumers in developing countries (FAO, 1995). Every year 207 millions tones of potatoes are consumed worldwide, fact which places potato crop in the third place of world’s most consumable crops, after rice and wheat, which have annual consumptions of 511 and 421 million tons respectively. World production of potato has increased relatively fast due to the production from developing countries. One third of the world production belongs to developing countries and especially to Asia region. High yield, short cultivation period and nutritional characteristics are mainly the reasons for the selection of potato crop from these countries. These characteristics set potato crop as the top one for production of edible energy per time per unit area. Potatoes are produced in over 130 countries, and their consumption is steadily increasing in the two most rapidly developing countries, China and India. The annual per capita potato consumption in the world averages 28kg. Demand for fresh potatoes as food is falling in the developed countries but increasing in the developing countries. Over time, the declining trend in the per capita intake of table potatoes is partially offset by the increasing per capita consumption of processed products (Walker et al., 1999; FAO, 1995). Currently, China is the leading potato producer, while India follows with production equalling with half of China (FAOSTAT, 2010). The population of China is estimated to increase continuously until it reaches 1.5 billion. Chinas target for 95% food self-sufficiency equals to an annual increase of 100,000,000 tons. of which 50% is expected to be potato production. Potato is grown in different climatological zones, including temperate regions, the subtropics and tropics, under very different agro-ecological conditions, lowlands as well as highlands, and in very different socio-economic environments, by large-scale farmers in high external-input agriculture business as well as by small holders in developing countries (Struik and Wiersema, 1999). 3 In the countries surrounding the Mediterranean sea the potato is a crop of great significance. Due to favorable climatic conditions, it can be cultivated throughout the year where planting and harvesting dates depend on the specific area of cultivation. The Mediterranean region differs from Northern Europe not only in its environmental conditions but also in the different use of high technology and adaptation of potato cultivars. A great problem related to potato cultivation in the Mediterranean area is the availability of seed tubers at the right physiological stage (Frusciante and Ranalli, 1999). Potato in Cyprus Potato is considered as the most important vegetable crop in Cyprus, grown across a total area of 4500 ha annually. The total annual value of exports exceeds the value of 30 million Euro, representing about 40% of all agricultural exports. The annual production of ware potatoes ranges from 100-120 thousand metric tons. More than 75% is exported, mainly to countries of the European Union (U.K. and Germany). Potatoes are cultivated throughout most of the year in Cyprus with the bulk of the spring crop produced between March and June from plantings during November to January. Smaller quantities of early potatoes are exported during January/February (intermediate crop) from plantings in September/October. A third crop (winter crop) from plantings in August/September harvested in November/December is mainly exported during the Christmas period or is used for local consumption (Gregoriou and Onoufriou, 2001). The potato seed is mainly imported from Europe. The quantity of the imported seed and the seed produced locally was 8400 and 2000 tons respectively (Agricultural Statistics, 2010). The seed produced locally is obtained by the multiplication for only one year of imported elite seed (Vakis, 1980). In Cyprus about one fifth of the seed planted in autumn and spring crops is produced locally. Until now it appears that under Cyprus conditions the best approach to produce part of the requirements of seed potatoes is a single multiplication of imported stocks (certified or foundation seed). Locally produced seed perform equally satisfactorily as imported seed. Ware crops grown from local seed were as healthy as crops grown from imported seed (Vakis, 1980). The physiological stage of local seed at planting time appears to be such as to allow the production of early crops with satisfactory yield. Further research work for the production of healthy potato seed through the use of micropropagation was carried out by the Agricultural Research Institute (Gregoriou, 2009). A complete system from the laboratory to the production of certified seed in the field was developed. 4 Swot Analysis of Cyprus Potato. The strengths, weakness, opportunities and threads of the potato crop are summarized below: Strengths The mild Mediterranean climate of Cyprus is of its strengths in the production and marketing of high-quality early potatoes in European and international market. Climate allows for more than one crops per year The good infrastructure in human, technological and plant capital, both in scientific research and support in the sector, and the production and marketing of potatoes, are strong elements. Powerful element is, of course, the advanced infrastructure in water management and sufficient irrigation of crops. The reputation of the Cyprus Potato in the markets abroad as a product with excellent quality. More than 50% of potatoes exported to overseas markets are certified that have been produced based on the principles of Integrated Production Management (GlobalGap, etc.) Weaknesses The small size and fragmentation of farm units, lead to increased cost and reduced competitiveness of potatoes. The limited rainfall and lack of sufficient quantities of water. Organizations and marketing structures of potatoes need further strengthening and modernization. The distance from overseas markets which result in high transportation cost Opportunities The registration of Cyprus potatoes as a product of Products of Origin or Products of geographical Indication The production of certified organic potatoes will significantly broaden their horizons and marketing profitability of the Cypriot potatoes. The possibility of producing seed potato, both for local usage, as well for exports. Threats Competitive pressures on Cyprus early potatoes from other Mediterranean Member countries of the EU to EU markets and other international markets . 5 Competitive pressures on Cypriot potatoes exports from other Mediterranean countries, which enjoy preferential treatment from the EU, eg Egypt and Israel. Competitive pressures on Cyprus potatoes from EU-5 countries (U.K., the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany and northern France). Possible intensification of climate change and any reduction in rainfall patterns will have serious negative implications for the Cypriot potato growers. The intense competition between traders of Cyprus potatoes to foreign markets Effect of climatic conditions on potato In general, potato thrives in cool climate conditions. Best yields are founded at areas where temperature during cultivation period is even, without fluctuations and with moderate to frequent rainfalls (Patsalos, 2005). High temperatures of 26-28 °C, or more, favor the foliage development and conversely, low temperatures of 15-18 °C combined with ample light and high humidity favor the tuber growth. Relatively low temperatures are appropriate as well for sprout growth. At temperatures of 12-13 °C, emergence is achieved within 12-30 days. Potato plant is sensitive at very low temperatures. At temperature of 3 °C serious damage is caused to the foliage and at temperature below minus 2 °C, plants will entirely freeze and destroyed (Patsalos, 2005). Planting seasons are determined by the climate of the area. According to climate and season, cultivation areas can discerned in two categories: (1) low temperature and (2) high temperature. At low temperature regions usually only one crop per year is possible and the duration of season is determinate by the minimum temperature requirements for growth and frost avoidance. In contrast, at high temperature region until three crops can be grown. Plant growth The process of the development and the formation of both stolons and tubers is strongly influenced by climatic factors such as photoperiod and temperature. The growth and development of potato plants can be divided into several genetically and environmentally controlled growth stages. Knowledge of these stages is required for scientists as well as farmers (Kolbe and StephanBeckmann, 1997). Milthorpe (1963) divided the time between planting to the time of harvest of potato in the field into three periods: the pre-emergence stage, the haulm stage and the tuber growth stage. The phases of haulm growth and tuber growth are closely interrelated and overlapping. Kolbe and Stephan-Beckmann (1997) describe the two-digit scale of Hack et al. (1993, in Kolbe and Stephan-Beckmann, 1997), which includes 10 stages of growth and development in relative scales from 00 (dormant seed tuber) to 99 (harvested tubers). The storage phase extends from lifting until the tubers are planted some months later. The pre-emergence phase involves the establishment of root and leaf surfaces from materials stored within the mother tuber, and occurs at a rate determined mainly from the soil temperature and the size of sprout at planting (Milthorpe, 1963; Firman et al., 1992). Rate of sprout elongation 6 increases with the temperature over the range 4-20 °C but there is usually a lag phase before linear growth occurs (Firman et al., 1992). Rate of emergence is slower in dry soil, and especially so at high temperatures. Prolonged intervals from planting to emergence in low soil temperatures frequently lead to shorter stems and lower leaf area (Allen et al., 1992). Planting old seed in cold soil can possibly cause tuberization before emergence (Moorby, 1978). Throughout the period of emergence growth the plant is dependent on the carbohydrate reserves of the mother tuber. After emergence leaf expansion is rapid because most of the primordia, which expand into leaves, are already present in the shoot apex. The plant rapidly becomes autotrophic, usually by the time 200400 cm² of leaf have been produced (Headford, 1962) but the transfer of reserves from the mother tuber continues until the latter is almost completely depleted or until microbial infection brings about decay. Throughout this period there is a net loss of dry weight from the mother tuber. These is, however, a continual turnover of materials and it is possible to demonstrate the incorporation of photosynthetically incorporated 14 C into ethanol-insoluble reserves in the mother tuber at a time when the latter has lost 80% of its original dry weight (Moorby, 1968). Gregory (1956) found, using cv Kennebec, that tuber yield was good if plants were grown in short days (SD) with low night temperature, but no tubers were formed in SD with high night temperature. Menzel (1980) found that the effects of high temperature could be reversed by (2 – chloroethyl) – trimethylammonium chloride (CCC). Menzel (1980, 1985) considers that both high temperatures and low irradiance exert their effects by the production of a growth substance, possibly gibberellin. High temperatures decrease partitioning to tubers, and favour haulm growth (Ewing, 1981). Went (1959) showed that temperature affected not only the yield of the treated plants, but also that of their progeny. Tuber formation may be regulated by the relative activity of several substances rather than the absolute concentration of a single substance (Slater, 1968; Hammes and Nel, 1975), and the substances may be involve in the tuber formation stimulus (Okazawa and Chapman, 1962) which is yet unidentified. It is evident that tuber initiation is hastened in short days and low temperatures although the response varies with variety and species. There have been two suggestions concerning the nature of responses of the plants which are thought to be due either to the presence of some tuberization stimuli (Madec, 1963) or to the difference in substrate supply to the stolon tips as a consequence of growth differences in the haulms (Slater, 1963). 7 Material and methods For the current project, data from long term potato experiments carried out by the Agricultural Research Institute during the period 1975 to 2010 were analyzed. In this period 520 varieties and 412 clones were evaluated. For the needs of the project, the varieties Cara, Nicola and Spunta were used. These three varieties are considered of significant economic importance. .Spunta is a very early variety with long tubers suitable for fresh consumption. Nicola is a salad variety with long-oval tubers and medium maturity. Cara is a late variety with round tuber, suitable for bakers and exported mainly in the Scandinavian countries Data were correlated to meteorological data provided by the Cyprus Meteorological Service for the period 1970-2012. Data were obtained from meteorological station 731, nearby Larnaca airport. Even though there are other stations closest to Xylophagou Larnaca’s station was chosen because is the only one to provide consistence data for the period of the collected data. As mean average temperature was calculated the temperatures from December to May, representing the growing period of the spring crop, which is the main growing season for potatoes All the meteorological data were received from the Meteorological Service. Location All the trials were carried out at Kokkinochoria, the main potato growing area of Cyprus. All trials were set up in the same area, at Xylophagou village. The red soil of the area (Terra rosa), which sticks to the tuber, and the high tuber quality characterize Cyprus potatoes in the foreign markets. Cultivation Period Trials were carried out for the spring crop. Planting took place at late December-early January while harvesting at late April early May, according to the climatic circumstances of each year. The cultivation period of the trials averages at four months. Cultivation Practices The Randomized Complete Block Design with 2-4 replications was used for all experiments. The plot size was either 2.6 x 2.4 m or 2.6 x 4.8 m comprising four rows of 12 or 24 plants each. Data were collected only from the two middle rows; the other two rows were used as guard rows and for observation purposes during the growing period. The varieties Spunta, Cara and Nicola were used in most experiments as controls. Planting distance was 65 cm between rows and 20 cm within rows. Compound fertilizers (14-22-9 or 20-20-10) at the rate of 1500 kg/ha were applied at planting. Supplemental top dressing fertilizer was applied during February. Irrigation was applied by mini-sprinklers; depending on weather conditions, there were 6 to 10 irrigations during the growing period. Good quality dam water was used for irrigation. The total water requirements of the spring crop ranges between 3500 m3 - 4000m3 per hectare. Weed control was managed with herbicides and also mechanically between the lines during the earthing up at about 60 days from planting. 8 Results - Conclusions As far as it concern climatic change, precipitation and temperature are the two main variables that can affect the crop yield. Since potato is an irrigated crop in Cyprus no conclusions can be made on any fluctuations of precipitation in comparison with yield. Therefore conclusions are focused on the effect of temperature. Ficure 1 presents the annual average temperature for the period 1976-2012 at the area of Larnaca. There is a continuous slight increase of the temperature from 1976 and thereafter. Extreme low temperatures were recorded in the year 1982/1983 and the period 1991-1993. Extreme higher temperatures above the average were recorded after 1995 up to 2010. These were the periods 1993/1994, 1998/1999, 2000/2001and 2009/2010. The relationship between the temperature and the time is expressed by the equation: Temperature = 14.26+0.0421* year The model as fitted explains 29.1% of the variability in temperature and there is a statistically significant relationship between the temperature and the year at the 95% confidence level. The yields of the experimental plots of the Agricultural Research Institute were compared to the total production of potatoes in Cyprus from the FAO Statistics (Figure 2). Although the lines of the production are moving in different levels, 40-70 and 10-30 t/ha for the Agricultural Research Institute and FAO, respectively, the main characteristics of the lines are almost identical. Severe decrease of the yield was recorded in the years 1980, 1985, 1994, 1997 and 2010. The differences in the lines as regard their slope and the yield can be explained from the fact that the results from the Agricultural Research Institute are obtained from small experimental plots in the Xylophagou area while that of FAO are values covering all the island. During spring 1985, weather conditions were abnormal in relation to potato growing (Vakis, 1985). Two severe frosts in February damaged most of the potato plantations. Due to low temperatures emergence, growth development and lifting were delayed. The low temperature in 1992 especially after planting (Myrianthousis, 1992) resulted in delay for emergence and lifting. On the other hand the weather conditions in 1993 from planting to lifting were favorable and yield were above average (Gregoriou, 1993). In 1994 although the weather conditions during the growing period were favorable for potato growing, the yields obtained were at least 25% lower than the normal. This was due to heavy infection by the leaf miner Lyriomyza huidobrensis (Gregoriou, 1994). In 1997 the weather conditions for the growth of potatoes were the worst since the beginning of the century. Temperatures following the second half of December and until the middle of January, were very favorable for potato growth. Early varieties by the middle of December emerged in less than 30 days. In the last week of January, temperatures fell gradually and by the beginning of February, frost (one week) completely destroyed the plant canopy. During plant recovery frosts came in waves from the last week of February until the 10th of April and the plants were severely damaged (Gregoriou and Onoufriou, 1997). 9 The decrease in yield in 2000 and 2010 is also caused by night frost. In 2010 the damages were the result of a heavy frost for only a night, but with duration of five hours (Gregoriou and Kourtellarides, 2010) Form the above description is concluded that the most risk factor for the development and the production of potatoes are weather conditions and especially the frost. Hail, freezing wind, heavy rains are not negligible and sometimes they cause severe damages, locally. According to weather conditions, pest and diseases are very often responsible for heavy losses. Phytophthora infestans is the main pathogen for the potato crop. The reaction of the varieties Spunta, Nicola and Cara is almost identical on the chronological period (Figure 3). In a comparison test of the three regression lines there is a statistically significant relationship between variables (year and yield) at the 95% confidence level.(Figure 4) but there are no statistically significant differences among the intercepts and slopes for the various values of variety at the 90% or higher confidence value. Comparing the yield of the three varieties in relation to the mean temperature of each year (Figure 5) there is not statistically significant relationship between the variables at the 95% or higher confidence level and no statistically significant differences were found among the intercepts and the slopes for the various values of variety at the 090% or higher confidence level. 10 17 Temperature °C 16 15 y = 0.0421x + 14.262 R² = 0.2906 14 13 Year Figure 1. Average temperature for the period 1976-2010 at the area of Larnaca Airport (Meteorological station 731). 90.0 80.0 70.0 Yield (t/ha) 60.0 50.0 ARI 40.0 FAO 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Year Figure 2. Yield from the experimental plots of the Agricultural Research Institute (variety Spunta) and FAO Statistics. 11 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2012 Yield (t/ha) 10.0 30.0 20.0 2012 2006 2005 2004 20.0 2003 30.0 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1981 1976 Yield (t/ha) 1973 1974 1975 1976 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2012 Yield (t/ha) 90.0 80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 y = 0.7747x + 40.911 R² = 0.3424 A Year 90.0 80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 y = 0.9182x + 43.945 R² = 0.2398 10.0 0.0 Year 90.0 80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 y = 0.825x + 40.199 R² = 0.3449 C 0.0 Year Figure 3. Yield of varieties Spunta (A), Nicola (B) and Cara (C) during the tested period. 12 80 Variety Spunta Nicola Cara Yield (t/ha) 60 40 20 0 1970 1980 1990 Year 2000 2010 Figure 4.Comparison of regression lines of yield of the varieties Spunta, Nicola and Cara in relation to the year of growing. 80 Variety Spunta Nicola Cara Yield (t/ha) 60 40 20 0 13 14 15 Temperature °C 16 17 Figure 5. Comparison of regression lines of yield of the varieties Spunta, Nicola and Cara in relation to the mean temperature 13 Potatoes are grown under a wide range of daylength regimes from 12 hours of sunlight in the Andes and equatorial zones of Africa and Asia to over 16 hours of sunlight in Alaska and Chile (Horton, 1987). Daylength and temperature can influence the growth habit of the potato in unexpected ways. Short days and moderate temperatures, particularly low night temperatures, stimulate tuber initiation. High daytime temperature is usually correlated with a high rate of respiration, which may cause plant moisture stress even when the soil moisture content is high. Furthermore the rate of net photosynthesis decreases when temperatures are higher than about 25 degrees C. Minimum nighttime temperature is also a critical variable. As a rule, tubers will not begin to form if night temperatures remain above 20 degrees C. High night temperatures increase plant respiration, depleting carbohydrates reserves and slowing tuber temperature. Soil temperatures below about 12 degrees or above 28 degrees C impair sprout development (Horton, 1987). In recent years mathematical models were developed to describe the growth of the potatoes (MacKerron, 2008). Characteristics of crop and models that must be reconciled are: the crop data and cultivar characteristics, soil data and soil conditions, growth of the crop and weather data. MacKerron et al. (2004) presented the MAPP (Management Advisory Package for Potato) a model that set out factors and variables those influence the states of development of the crop. As a decision support system is giving informed options not making decisions. It is concluded from ARI experiments in potatoes in the period from 1975 to 2012 that extreme weather conditions, mainly frost, reduce the possibility of a normal production. There was an increase in the yield during the years but this was not an effect of the mean year temperature. On long term basis the varieties examined had no statistical effect on the yield. 14 Literature Agricultural Statistics, 2010. Statistical service, Republic of Cyprus, Nicosia. Allen, E.J., O´ Brien, P.J. and Firman, D., 1992. Seed tuber production and management. In: Harris, P.M. (Ed.). The Potato Crop. The scientific basis for improvement. Second edition, Chapman and Hall, London, pp. 247-292. Ewing, E.E., 1981. Heat stress and the tuberization stimulus. Am. 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