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WHY DO FIRMS ENGAGE SO RARELY IN DELIBERATE
FORWARD-LOOKING SEARCH?
DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT
AARHUS UNIVERSITY
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MANY FIRMS ARE AFRAID OF
Being hit unprepared by disruptive change
Missing the next big thing
Lacking the agility to respond
DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT
AARHUS UNIVERSITY
JUNE 2017
RENÉ ROHRBECK
TYMEN JISSINK, RENE ROHRBECK, EELKO HUIZINGH
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SO WHY IS THE SHARE OF FIRMS THAT
ARE FUTURE PREPARED DECREASING?
2008
2015
11%
21%
25%
36%
54%
54%
N = 83
N = 200
VIGILANT
DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT
AARHUS UNIVERSITY
DEFICIENCIES
JUNE 2017
IN DANGER
RENÉ ROHRBECK
TYMEN JISSINK, RENE ROHRBECK, EELKO HUIZINGH
OUR QUESTION AND APPROACH
Tymen Jissink
RQ
René Rohrbeck
Data
What is influencing the extent to which firms engage in
forward-looking search (strategic foresight)
Past performance data from 2010 – 2014
Survey data from 2013 - 2014
Eelko Huizingh
DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT
AARHUS UNIVERSITY
JUNE 2017
RENÉ ROHRBECK
TYMEN JISSINK, RENE ROHRBECK, EELKO HUIZINGH
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OUR CONSTRUCTS AND HYPOTHESES
Forward-looking
search
External
determinants
Primary survey (1)
data
(N=108)
(1 wave collected in 2013-2014)
(6-items, own scale)
Market turbulence
(Han et al. 1998)
Technology turbulence
(Citrin et al. 2007)
Competitive intensity
Zhou et al. (2005) & Auh and
Menguc (2005)
DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT
AARHUS UNIVERSITY
JUNE 2017
RENÉ ROHRBECK
TYMEN JISSINK, RENE ROHRBECK, EELKO HUIZINGH
OUR CONSTRUCTS AND HYPOTHESES
External
determinants
Forward-looking
search
• Market turbulence
• Techno. Turbulence
• Competitive intensity
Primary survey (1)
data
(N=108)
(1 wave collected in 2013-2014)
(6-items, own scale)
Objective secondary
data
Internal
determinants
(collected for the years 20072014)
Past performance vs.
aspiration
(Chen 2008)
Transient slack
(Chen 2008)
DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT
AARHUS UNIVERSITY
JUNE 2017
RENÉ ROHRBECK
TYMEN JISSINK, RENE ROHRBECK, EELKO HUIZINGH
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OUR CONSTRUCTS AND HYPOTHESES
External
determinants
Primary survey (1)
data
(N=108)
Forward-looking
search
• Market turbulence
• Techno. Turbulence
• Competitive intensity
(1 wave collected in 2013-2014)
(6-items, own scale)
Objective secondary
data
Internal
determinants
(collected for the years 20072014)
Controls
• Firm size
• R&D activities
Past performance vs.
aspiration
(Chen 2008)
Transient slack
Controls
• Typical development
cycle time
• Business activity scope
• Industry
(Chen 2008)
DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT
AARHUS UNIVERSITY
JUNE 2017
RENÉ ROHRBECK
TYMEN JISSINK, RENE ROHRBECK, EELKO HUIZINGH
FINDINGS (1/2)
Model 4
(Joint model)
Performance below aspiration t-1
Performance above aspiration t-1
Slack resources t
Transient slack t
Performance expectation t+1
Market turbulence t
Technological turbulence t
Competitive intensity t
Interaction effects
Market turbulence * transient slack
Technological turbulence * transient
slack
Competitive intensity * transient slack
R²
F-Value
N
DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT
AARHUS UNIVERSITY
JUNE 2017
-.012 (.082)
-.068 (.121)
-.001 (.072)
.185* (.064)
.182† (.037)
-.105 (.101)
.167* (.104)
-.157* (.079)
Model 5
(Interaction
model)
-.060 (.077)
-.135 (.115)
-.103 (.070)
.133† (.060)
.151† (.035)
-.150 (.098)
.259* (.099)
-.145† (.082)
.189
2.209*
-.111 (.071)
.362** (.060)
.232** (.056)
.322
2.399**
108
108
RENÉ ROHRBECK
TYMEN JISSINK, RENE ROHRBECK, EELKO HUIZINGH
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FINDINGS (2/2)
2,0
1,5
1,0
0,5
0,0
-0,5
-1,0
Low Slack resources
-1,5
High Slack resources
-2,0
-2
-1
0
1
2
Firms do more forwardlooking search
only if
they are in a technological
turbulent or competitive
intense environment
AND
have abundant slack
resources
Forward-looking search
2,0
Forward-looking search
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1,5
1,0
0,5
0,0
-0,5
-1,0
Low Slack resources
-1,5
Technological turbulence
(standardized)
DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT
AARHUS UNIVERSITY
High Slack resources
-2,0
-2
-1
0
1
2
Competitive intensity
(standardized)
JUNE 2017
RENÉ ROHRBECK
TYMEN JISSINK, RENE ROHRBECK, EELKO HUIZINGH
CONCLUSION
Past performance: matters less
• If bad: less forward-looking
Performance expectation: positive
• Forward-looking to avoid uncertainty and grasp opportunities
Slack resources: only transient matters
• Uncommitted resources to explore the future
Environmental forces matter:
• Market: not sig., Technology: +, Competition: -
Both Internal & External Factors: interactions significant!
• Transient slack: *Tech & *Competition: positive interaction
DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT
AARHUS UNIVERSITY
JUNE 2017
RENÉ ROHRBECK
TYMEN JISSINK, RENE ROHRBECK, EELKO HUIZINGH
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Thank you for your interest!
Tymen Jissink
DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT
AARHUS UNIVERSITY
René Rohrbeck
JUNE 2017
Eelko Huizingh
RENÉ ROHRBECK
TYMEN JISSINK, RENE ROHRBECK, EELKO HUIZINGH
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