Name of Strategy:
Climate Change Response Strategy
Division:
General Management Services
Department:
Strategy Coordination
Created By:
Karin Strachan with inputs from Climate Change Focus Group
Updated:
31 October 2012
File Location:
EVM/119
Climate Change Response Strategy
1.0
Executive Summary
p. 3
2.0
Purpose and desired outcomes of this Specific Purpose Strategy p. 5
3.0
Introduction / Background Information
3.1
The City‟s Specific Purpose Plans in the context of
Climate Change
3.2
The City‟s Divisional operations in the context of
Climate Change
3.3
PESTEL factors to consider
3.4
Legal implications of Climate Change
p. 6
4.0
Methodology
p. 12
5.0
Discussing the Key Climate Change Variables for the City of
Rockingham
p. 14
6.0
Climate Change Risk for the City of Rockingham
6.1
Summary Overview of Risk Analysis Findings
6.2
Risk Register for the City of Rockingham
p. 21
7.0
Key Strategic Objectives and Next steps
p. 29
8.0
Implementation Actions for each identified Key Element
8.1
General Actions
8.2
Internal Stakeholder Communication Actions
8.3
External Stakeholder Communication Actions
8.4
Key Element 1: Sea Level Rise
8.5
Key Element 2: Reduced Rainfall
8.6
Key Element 3: Increased Temperature
8.7
Key Element 4: Increased intensity of Storm Events
8.8
Key Element 5: Ocean acidification / Rise in Sea Temp
8.9
Corporate Local Action plan mitigation Actions
p. 30
9.0
Ensuring alignment with Team Plans (and Budgets)
9.1
Ongoing
9.2
Year 1: 2012/2013
9.3
Year 2: 2013/2014
9.4
Year 3: 2014/2015
p. 35
7.0
References
p. 38
Appendices
p. 41
Appendix 1:
Appendix 2:
Appendix 3:
Appendix 4:
The Bruun Rule
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Scenarios
Risk Analysis Framework and Risk Analysis Process
Perth region coastal climate change scenarios (CZM, 2010)
-2-
1.0
Executive Summary
The City of Rockingham has embarked on a journey to explore the risks associated with
Climate Change, and the mitigation and adaptation actions required to prepare the City and
its Operations for the potential impacts of Climate change.
It should be emphasised that the City is not involved in the political debate around the
reasons for Climate Change happening, and if it is indeed happening. Preparing for Climate
Change is a pro-active way of ensuring that it is not caught off-guard in the event that Climate
Change indeed is a reality.
Climate Change can be defined as a significant and lasting change in the statistical
distribution of weather patterns over periods ranging from decades to millions of years. It may
be a change in average weather conditions or the distribution of events around that average
(e.g. more or fewer extreme weather events). Climate Change may be limited to a specific
region or may occur across the whole Earth. Historic trends and modeling into the future
indicate that the Coast of Western Australia (and the City of Rockingham) is susceptible to
48
various risks as a result of anticipated changes in our climate.
Geographically, the City of Rockingham is contained within a complex geophysical system
with a large variety of coastal and wetland habitats. Potential Climate Changes, such as sealevel rise, decline in rainfall, increased annual temperatures and changes in the frequency
and intensity of extreme events will have broad ranging impacts on the natural systems that
contribute to the economic, social and environmental prosperity of the region. Some
elements such as sea level rise will occur gradually over many years, and so integration into a
Disaster Management Plan is not appropriate. Local Government plans will need to
accommodate this gradual, incremental long term change. Other Climate Change elements
such as storms, cyclones and heat waves are highly visible, sudden, and extreme events that
require disaster planning. Understanding how this variation applies to the particular Local
Government area for the City of Rockingham may be useful for planning effective adaptation
47
measures.
Table 1:
Summary of Climate Change events and the possible nature of their
impact (from “Adapting to Climate Change – A Queensland Local Government Guide”
42
– June 2007)
-3-
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Assessment Report projects
the following changes for Perth by 203041:









o
Warmer with between 0.4 to 2.0 C
o
0-50% increase in days over 35 C (Perth)
o
0-80% decrease in nights below 0 C (Perth)
Up to 20% less annual rainfall in SWA relative to 1960–1990 baseline
Increased risk of drought in SWA very likely
Increase in potential evaporation likely
Tropical cyclones expected to be more intense
o No clear picture about frequency & tracks
Sea level rise
Ocean Acidification / Rise in Sea Temperature32
This Climate Change Response Strategy provides an overview of the process that was
followed, the outcomes thereof and the next steps identified in order to prepare the City for
the potential impacts of Climate Change. The Strategy supports at least five of the
aspirations that have been specified in the City‟s Strategic Community Plan.
Key Aspirations covered by this Climate Change Response
Strategy:
 Infrastructure Construction & Planning
 Facilities & Services
 Climate Change
 Coastal and Bushland Reserves
 Carbon footprint & Waste reduction
Purpose of this Climate Change Response Strategy:
To Identify the Climate Change Risks for CoR and to develop Adaptation
and Mitigation actions to address these Risks
Key variable 1:
Sea level rise
Key variable 2:
Reduced
rainfall
Key variable 3:
Increased
temperature
Key variable 4:
Increased
intensity of
storm events
Key variable 5:
Ocean
acidification /
Sea temp rise
The plan covers the next 60 years, and will be reviewed annually in order to update the
assumptions and identified actions as and when new knowledge becomes available.
The key strategic objectives of the Climate Change Response Strategy are focussed on two
entities, namely the community and the organisation:
Community objectives


Educate the community on what Climate Change is and how it would affect them
Address all potential Health and Safety issues with regards to the community
-4-

Ensure continuity of services and facilities to the community as far as is possible,
especially with extreme events
Organisational objectives



Ensure knowledge and awareness amongst staff about what Climate Change is and
what potential threats it could hold for the organisation and its operations
Develop business continuity plan through the City‟s risk management framework
Minimise costs associated with planning for and reacting to Climate Change events,
without compromising the sustainability of the organisation and the safety of its
people
Key next steps that would ensure a common level of understanding and ongoing
implementation of the identified actions presented on pages 32-41 include:

A vigorous approach towards knowledge transfer across the organisation and within
the community
o The Climate Change focus group will address this through appropriate
briefing documents and information sessions
o Upon acceptance of the draft Climate Change response Strategy by Council
in September, it will be out up for Public consultation during
October/November

Active tracking of the implementation of identified mitigation and adaptation actions
that have been developed from the Risk Analysis and are in support of the Key
Strategic objectives
o The Climate Change focus group meet on a monthly basis to discuss
progress with the implementation of the actions and to develop further actions
as and when required

Ongoing update and incorporation of the mitigation actions identified in the Corporate
Local Action plan (CLAP) which sets targets for corporate greenhouse gas emissions
reduction. The CLAP was first developed and endorsed in 2000 to help the City
achieve its 20% emissions reduction target, as set by the Cities for Climate Protection
Programme (CCP). The Plan is regularly reviewed to ensure that it is current and to
enable actions to be modified and priorities to be re-set.
2.0
Purpose and desired outcomes of this Specific Purpose Strategy
The purpose of the Climate Change Response Strategy is to:
o
o
o
Provide an overview of what Climate Change is and how it could potentially impact
the organisation and its activities
Address those Strategic Community Plan Aspirations that would be affected by the
variables associated with Climate Change and to link this to the City‟s Operations
Provide a “vehicle” through which the identified community and organisational
Strategic objectives can be driven through targeted mitigation and adaptation actions
that have been developed through a Risk analysis process
The desired outcome of the Climate Change Response Strategy is to:
-5-
o
o
o
o
3.0
Provide a comprehensive link between the Strategic Community Plan and
Operational Team Plans with regards to planning for and acting upon the possible
threat and associated implications of Climate Change
Prompt staff within the organisation that Climate Change requires pro-active planning
Provide a source of information which identifies the following elements with regards
to Climate Change:
- Climate Change variables that could impact on the City
- Risks associated with these variables
- Actions to address these risks
- Team plans and Responsible people that would be required to plan and
budget for these actions and implement them
Provide a framework within which identified actions can be tracked for implementation
and updated on an ongoing basis in order to ensure that the City remains pro-active
with regards to Climate Change mitigation and adaptation
Introduction / Background Information
The Integrated Planning and Reporting Framework and Guidelines were released by the
Minister for Local Government in October 2010 and require that each Local Government
adopts a 10-year Strategic Community Plan, which clearly links the Community‟s aspirations
with the Council‟s vision and Long Term Strategy.
Council endorsed the City‟s Strategic
Community Plan in March 2011, making the City of Rockingham the first Local Council in
Western Australia to conform to the Integrated Planning and Reporting Framework and
Guidelines prescribed by State Government. The Community Aspirations that have been
captured in the Strategic Community Plan will be activated and implemented through various
Specific Purpose Plans and Strategies, Identified Activities, and through the Operational
Team Plans, the Asset Management Plan and the Infrastructure Plan which comprise the
Business Plan.
The City of Rockingham‟s Strategic Community Strategy specifically addresses Climate
Change within a number of the Community Aspirations, including:




3.1.
Aspirations 4 and 5: “A healthy community engaging in positive and rewarding
lifestyles with access to a range of passive and active recreational and personal
development opportunities” and “Community facilities and services delivered in a
timely manner, able to meet expectations and serve new and growing
neighbourhoods”.
Aspiration 9: “Planning systems, infrastructure standards and community awareness
programs that serve to acknowledge and mitigate the impacts of Climate Change.
Aspiration 10: “Coastal and bushland reserves that are well utilised and managed in
a way that will preserve them for future generations to enjoy”.
Aspiration 12: “Carbon footprint reduction and waste minimisation programs centred
upon public awareness and the use of new technologies”
The City’s Specific Purpose Plans in the context of Climate Change
In addition to serving the Strategic community plan, the Climate change response Plan will
also ensure alignment within various specific purpose strategies, with regards to Climate
Change:
Table 2:
Summary of the possible impacts of Climate Change on the various
Specific Purpose Strategies and Plans developed by the City of Rockingham
-6-
Increasing
temperatures
√
Decreasing
rainfall
Sea level rise
√
√
SUDDEN, SHORT TERM EVENTS
Cyclones
√
√
√
√
Storm surge
√
√
√
√
Heat wave
√
√
√
Storms,
√
√
√
√
flooding
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
-7√
√
√
Corporate Local Action plan
Emergency Management Plan
Bushfire Hazard strategy
Local water Action plan
Waste Strategy
Bushland Management Strategy
Local Biodiversity Strategy
Public Open Space Plan
Tourism Strategy
Foreshore Strategy
Asset Management Plan
Community Infrastructure Plan
Local Planning Strategy
Community Plan
CLIMATE
CHANGE
ELEMENT
LONG TERM, INCREMENTAL ELEMENTS
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
3.2.
The City’s Divisional Operations in the context of Climate Change
Climate change can impact on the city‟s operations and our attractions in various possible
ways.
Table 3:
Summary of the Relevance of Climate Change to the various Divisions
and Functions within the City of Rockingham (Adopted from “Adapting to Climate
42
Change – A Queensland Local Government Guide – June 2007”)
Infrastructure
Planning and
Asset
Management
Economic
Development
Community
Development &
Recreation
Environmental
48
Management
Disaster
Management
Development
of
Arts
&
Culture
and
other events
- Essential infrastructure (roads, bridges, water reticulation, waste
water treatment, buildings) may be threatened by severe weather
events (floods, drought, erosion, wind);
- Design and location of facilities and infrastructure will change to
reflect high risk Climate Change impacts;
- Long term planning, including location for all infrastructure must
factor in Climate Change.
- Which economic activities will attract given the Climate Change
scenarios?;
- Will Climate Change impacts affect population growth? The area
may become more or less desirable to live. Should projections be
revised?;
- Can the revised water supply estimates accommodate population
growth projections?
- Health and lifestyle impacts may be far-reaching. Facilities,
services, activities may need to be planned around changed climate
and weather patterns or events;
- The type, design and location of community and recreation facilities
may need review;
- The lifestyle of many communities is based around natural features
– wetlands, coast, and beaches (incl. boating). The impacts of
Climate Change on these areas could change lifestyles and
community value;
- Development and maintenance of Parks for recreation will have to
change to suit the changing climate;
- Significant plant and fauna species and whole ecosystems may
disappear over time;
- The condition of wetlands and reserves could decline ;
- Distribution of vector borne diseases may change – implications for
public health programs and pest management.
- Extreme events linked to Climate Change are likely to increase
disaster risk for some areas;
- May require regional approach, better coordination with State,
Australian Governments.
- Will events be affected by changing climate conditions (eg heat,
storms, reduced rainfall);
- Are some events/activities/facilities dependant on plentiful water –
they may be affected by dwindling supply.
-8-
3.3.
PESTEL factors to consider
The political, economic, societal, technological, environmental and legal impacts of Climate
Change could be far reaching, and need to be considered during the Risk Analysis process
and the identification of Risk adaptation and Risk mitigation steps.
Table 4:
Summary of PESTEL Factors to be considered by the City of
Rockingham
Political
Economical
Societal
Technological
Environmental48
Legal
3.4.
Pressure from Political parties to bring in Legislation or Taxes around
Climate Change initiatives could have an impact on CoR e.g. Carbon
Tax
The Economic impact of Climate Change events in and around
Rockingham could alter the Financial stability of the Community as well
as the ability of the City to perform its operations
The pockets of society most affected by Climate Change impacts could
put pressure on the City to meet certain expectations they might have
with regards to compensation or other support for their situation
New Technologies and Developments that would assist with the
mitigation and / or adaptation to Climate Change issues could prove to
be costly to acquire or implement and would place additional Financial
pressure on the City.
The resistance to change to these new
Technologies and new ways of doing things could also prove to be
challenging
Since Climate change is about a changing environment, all Climate
Change adaptation and mitigation actions implemented by the City
would be in an attempt to respond to these changes
The update of State Planning Policy No. 2.6 with regards to the setback
guidelines as 88 meters could hold Legal implications for the City with
regards to developments within this setback distance. 40 The Griffith
University has published that Local Governments are at risk of incurring
legal liability if they unreasonably fail to take into account the likely
effects of Climate Change.45
Local Governments should take care to ensure their actions and
decisions regarding matters that may be affected by Climate Change,
remain current and reasonable.49
Legal implications of Climate Change
Due to the seriousness of the legal implications that could flow out of Climate Change impacts
on the City, it was considered appropriate to include the following literature overview on
Climate Change and the likelihood of possible legal implications:
Local governments can be seen to be legally liable in the context of Climate Change, based
26
on two possible grounds :
1. Decisions that contribute to greenhouse gas emissions, eg. development approvals
for power stations or other polluting activities
2. Unreasonably failing to take into account the likely effects of climate change when
26
exercising their service, planning and development activities . The “threshold of
unreasonableness” can currently be seen as high. The range of actions (or inactions)
that would qualify as being “unreasonable” is likely to expand as new knowledge on
-9-
the issue of Climate Change and its associated future trends becomes more
available. The issue at hand is the consideration if local governments, in their
licensing, authorising and emergency procedures, have adequately taken into
account our growing vulnerability to the increasing impacts of climate change. Where
the impacts of climate change are clear and the information is readily available, for
any particular project or decision, local governments will have a duty to consider
58
those impacts and ways of addressing them .
26,58
Examples of law suits to be seen over time could potentially include issues such as
:
 The appropriateness of development approvals in flood prone, coastal zone or at risk
areas
 The adequacy of building standards to withstand extreme weather events
 Responsibility for erosion and landslides resulting from extreme weather events
 The adequacy of emergency procedures
 Failure to undertake disease prevention programmes
 Failure to preserve “public” natural assets in the face of climate change
The potential legal liabilities for local councils can be resorted under the three areas of
26
“private nuisance”, “public nuisance” and “negligence” :
 Private nuisance is an indirect interference with a person‟s land or property or
reasonable enjoyment of it, and must have arisen as a result of the respondents
actions or inactions in spite of their knowledge of the risk of harm.
 Public nuisance is a nuisance that materially affects the comfort and convenience of a
class of people that may be described as a section of the public. Activities that cause
an unreasonable interference with another person‟s land by way of landslides, bush
fires, flooding, coastal erosion etc. could give rise to claims in nuisance against a
local government if that local government was „in control‟ of the premises (or
resources) from which the nuisance emanated - either as the landowner / principal
manager or, for instance, during emergency operations.
 Negligence relates to a party‟s failure to take care within reasonable standards that
another party does not suffer personal or economic harm. Under the Civic Liability
Act (CLA), which relates to the wrongful exercise or omission of a function of public
authority, local governments would have a case for some defence against negligence
at this stage, given the following:
o
o
o
o
o
That an act or omission of the authority does not constitute a wrongful
exercise or failure unless the act or omission was in the circumstances so
unreasonable that no public or other authority having the functions of the
authority in question could properly consider the act or omission to be a
reasonable exercise of its functions.
An authority‟s functions are limited by financial and other resources
The general allocation of resources is not open to challenge
Functions required to be exercised should be decided by reference to the
broad range of its activities
The authority may rely on evidence of its compliance with its general
procedures and any applicable standards as evidence of the proper exercise
of its functions.
The main outstanding risk for local governments is that, with respect to climate
change, the range of actions – or inactions – that may amount to a wholly
unreasonable response is likely to expand rapidly in the next few years as more
26
information about the impacts of climate change becomes readily available .
- 10 -
26,58
Some of the actions local governments could consider include
:
 Taking into account relevant documents, policies, guidelines and expert
advice as far as possible
o Examples include State Planning Policies, Advice from State
Agencies, Climate Change Strategies, Cities for Climate Change
Program etc.
 Adopt integrated risk management for the organisation
 Balance climate change issues against competing considerations such
as resource constraints and the need for reasonable and relevant
development approval conditions
 Stay abreast of new knowledge that comes to light with regards to
adapting to and mitigating against climate change
43
Some of the scenarios that could give rise to claims for compensation would include :
 The spread of water-borne diseases
 Heat-related health impacts
 Interruption to businesses where public services fail or infrastructure such as bridges
and roads are damaged
 Property owners whose land is regularly flooded and they are suffering losses in
household contents
 The costs of technical solutions to protect structural integrity
 Lower property values
 Properties along coastal foreshore that will lose large parts of their land
- 11 -
4.
Methodology
A Climate Change Focus group was established at the City of Rockingham in order to proactively consider potential Climate Change impacts on the City‟s operations and to identify
relevant actions to mitigate or adapt. The Group is comprised of individuals identified from
various departments and was requested by the CEO to develop a Climate Change Response
Plan for the City. The Climate Change Focus Group meets weekly and the direction taken by
the group is checked against a Steering Group comprised of the Chief Executive Officer
(CEO) and Executive Management Team (EMT) every 4-6 weeks with the purpose of
ensuring that the group‟s activities remain aligned with the Strategic Community Plan and its
Aspirations.
Figure 1:
Climate Change Response Group
Climate Change Response Group
Climate Change Champion
A. Hammond
(CEO)
Climate Change Steering Group
(EMT)
Climate Change Focus
Group
K. Strachan
B. Ashby
I. Daniels
(Manager
Strategy Coordination)
(Manager
Strategic
Planning & Env)
(Manager
Engineering
Services)
J. Henson
G. Rogers
(Manager Parks
(Manager
Development) Capital Works)
A. Moles
(Manager
Financial
Services)
M. Quirk
F. Pond
(Manager
Infrastructure (Environmental
Planning Officer)
Development)
The Climate Change Focus group has taken the following steps in the development of a
comprehensive Climate Change Response Strategy for the City:

Benchmarking study (includes extensive literature and interviews with other LGA‟s on
their approach to Climate Change)
o All information known to the team members was brought to the Table for the
development of this document, including feedback on the Developments of
37
38
the Peron Naturaliste Partnership and the Cockburn Sound Alliance
- 12 -


Development of a Briefing document highlighting Climate Change trends, Possible
implications for CoR, what other LGA‟s have been doing, Risk analysis Framework to
be used for a proposed Climate Change Risk analysis
Risk analysis Workshop (internally held and internally facilitated) which involved:
o Agreeing on assumptions with regards to trends for each of the Climate
Change Variable identified. These assumptions were based on the data
presented in the City of Rockingham Climate Change Briefing document
following an extensive literature research and the information in the SMRC
Climate Change Risk Management and Adaptation Action plan for the South
59
Metropolitan Councils, September 2009 . (Also see Appendix 4 for
assumptions provided by Coastal Zone management). Assumptions were
based on “now”, 2030 and 2070. The assumptions can be classified as being
in the medium to top range with regards to the various possible scenarios that
have been presented across a wide variety of literature sources.
 Assumptions for “now”
- “As is” for all variables
- Sea pH of 8.2 and average sea temp of 20º
 Assumptions for 2030
- Sea level rises with 20 cm and sea levels move onshore
with 20 m
- 5 - 10% less Rainfall (1% decline in rainfall results in a 2-3%
decline in river runoff)
- 0.5 - 1.0% incr. in temp. ~ moving 100 km North of CoR and
15 - 18 extreme heat events
- 60% incr. in storm intensity
- Almost insignificant change in Ocean Acidity: pH of 8.2 and
average sea temp of 21º
 Assumptions for 2070
- Sea level rises with 60 cm sea levels move onshore with 60
m
- 10 - 20% less Rainfall (1% decline in rainfall results in a 23% decline in river runoff)
- 2.5 - 3.0% incr. in temp. ~ moving 300 km North of CoR and
25 extreme heat events
- 140% incr. in storm intensity
- Lower Ocean Acidity but impact not yet seen: pH of 7.9 and
average sea temp of 22º
o Identification of the Key Climate Change Risks for CoR within the time
classifications of “now”, 2030 and 2070
o Rating of each of the risks against agreed consequence and likelihood criteria
o Development of actions to address each of the identified risks, along with an
identification of the team plan(s) and responsible person(s) that will take
ownership of the action
The Risk Analysis process that was followed can be viewed in Appendix 3.
- 13 -
5.0
Discussing the Key Climate Change Variables for the City of
Rockingham
Key Variable 1:
Sea Level Rise
What can we see from History?
Figure 4:
Historic Global trends in sea level Rise vs.
57
projections (CSIRO);
Historic trends show that
average sea levels have been
rising globally (Figure 4). The
observed sea levels from tide
gauges (blue) and satellites
(red) are tracking near the
upper bound (black line) of the
IPCC 2001 projections (grey
shading and black lines) since
the start of the projections in
60
1990 . This upper limit leads
to a global-averaged sea-level
rise by 2100 of 88cm compared
to 1990 values.
These
observations do not necessarily
indicate that sea level will
continue to track this upper limit
- it may diverge above or below
this upper limit. However, the
ice sheet uncertainties could lead to a significantly larger sea-level rise than current
projections but are unlikely to lead to a significantly smaller rise.
Global trends do not necessarily correspond with regional trends. It is thus important that
historic and future trends for WA be considered.
Since the early 1990s the southern coast of WA has experienced increases of up to 4.6mm
per year, while the western coast of WA has experienced increases of up to 7.4mm per
63
year . Fremantle tide data have shown that the mean sea level has increased almost 20cm
at a rate of 1.54mm per annum since 1897. This represents 20% of the maximum tidal range
at Fremantle. The rise in sea level has been attributed to thermal expansion of the oceans
due to increased warming. Superimposed on this increasing trend, the rate of sea level rise
has changed due to inter-annual variability resulting from the El Nino-Southern Oscillation
(ENSO) phenomenon.
- 14 -
Figure 5:
Time series of Fremantle sea level (one year running mean) with the linear
trend of 1.54mm per annum superimposed in red. (Indian Ocean Climate initiative: How our
63
Regional Sea level has changed)
What could possibly happen into the future?
CSIRO scientists predict that the Australian coastline could retreat inland by up to 88 meters
by 2100 due to an estimated rise in the sea levels of 0.88 meters (see Appendix 1 for an
explanation of the Bruun rule).58 This is substantiated by the IPCC projections which estimate
a rise in global sea levels of up to 0.8 meters if the melting of the ice sheets is taken into
41
account . Coastal ecosystems, such as mangrove forests and low-lying wetlands could be
severely affected by a rise in the sea levels.
Figure 6 indicates a graphical representation of the Sea level rise over the next 100 years as
modelled by Bicknell from the SRES scenario projections. Using the Bruun rule, such sea
level rise would equate to up to 90 meters of inland encroachment of the sea by 2110. 55
Figure 6:
Recommended allowance for sea level rise in coastal planning for WA (red line
represents SRES scenario A1FI 95th percentile after Hunter (2009), normalised to 2110, blue line
55
by Bicknell, 2010)
- 15 -
In the whole of WA, between 20,000 and 30,000 residential buildings, with a current value of
between $5 billion and $8 billion may be at risk of inundation from a sea level rise of 1.1
46
metres (which would result in an inland retreat of the sea of up to 100 to 110 meters) . Such
a sea level rise will also put up to 9,000 km of WA‟s roads, up to 114 km of WA‟s railways and
up to 2,100 commercial buildings at risk. These assets have an estimated value of up to
$11.3 billion, $500 million and $17 billion respectively.19
For the City of Rockingham, there could potentially be between 1000 – 3500 residential
buildings under threat with a sea level rise of 1.1 meters.
Figure 7:
Estimated number of existing residential buildings in Western Australia at risk
46
of inundation from a sea-level rise of 1.1 meters.
According to Professor Chari Pattiaratchi from the University of Western Australia's Oceans
Institute, Cockburn Sound off Rockingham, coastlines in northern Mandurah and along the
Busselton region and the Swan River in Perth would "flood every couple of weeks" with a sea
level rise of 1 meter (~ 100 metres inland encroachment). Professor Pattiaratchi also said
that Kwinana Freeway and Riverside Drive also would regularly flood, similar to flash flooding
experienced recently when 20 millimetres of rain fell in just 40 minutes during peak-hour, and
parks throughout the city would be consumed by water.13
- 16 -
Key Variable 2:
Reduced Rainfall
What can we see from History?
Western Australia has experienced a trend of reduced average rainfall over the past 100
years, along with a decrease in the number of “wet” years more recently.56
Figure 8:
56
Historic annual rainfall trend (Australian bureau of meteorology )
The rainfall drop in south-west WA has led to a stream flow reduction of about 50%, which is
56
a large decrease relative to the rainfall decline . This disparity reflects the lack of very wet
years and the runoff sensitivity to rainfall decreases. The resulting decrease in surface water
and groundwater availability has severely reduced regional water resources and is forcing
major enhancement of water supplies. In south-west WA, average annual stream flow
generally ranges from 3% to 20% of the rainfall.
What could possibly happen into the future?
Based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Assessment Report,
the rainfall in the Perth region could decrease as follows relative to a 1990 baseline;53
2030: Decrease of 5-10% in average annual rainfall
2070: Decrease of 10-20% in average annual rainfall
- 17 -
Key conclusions from a paper released by the Department of Water in 2009 for the Perth-Peel
region to 2030 include the following:
i) Rainfall
The „median‟ and „dry‟ climate-scenario projections project for 8 - 15 % declines in average
annual rainfall by 2030, relative to the 1980–99 average.
Figure 9:
Average rainfall scenarios for Perth‟s May to October rainfall. Natural variability
included (dashed black lines) for five-year duration averages above and below the „median‟
change estimate rainfall scenario. The variability represents +/-10 per cent for the wetter and
drier five-year „runs‟. (Climate Change, water demand and water availability scenarios to 2030,
51
Dept. of Water, Government of Western Australia, September 2009)
According to the CSIRO (2007) the annual average temperature is predicted to increase by
as much as 3ºC by 2070, and the average annual rainfall will drop by 20 – 40%.41
ii) Groundwater availability
Groundwater modelling in the region indicates that a 10 % reduction in rainfall results in about
a 20 % reduction in groundwater recharge. Hence the 'median' and 'dry' climate scenarios
would result in 16 % - 30 % less groundwater available respectively in 2030.
iii) Surface-water availability
Surface-water availability has decreased by about 50 % since the mid-1970s. Average flow
for some streams since 2001 is less than one-third of previous flows. This indicates that in
the Perth-Peel region, a 10 % reduction in rainfall results in about a 30 % reduction in stream
flows.
iv) Water demand
Public (IWSS) water demand is projected to increase by between 20 and 95 GL/yr by
2030 relative to 2008. This represents a 5-20% increase.
- 18 -
Key Variable 3:
Increased Temperature
What can we see from History?
Western Australia has had an increase in average temperature by approximately 1°C in the
last 100 years – see Figure 10.
Figure 10:
Historic increase in average temperature across Western Australia (Australian
56
Bureau of meteorology )
What could possibly happen into the future?
Based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Assessment Report,
the temperatures in the Perth region could increase as follows relative to a 1990 baseline;53
2030: Increase of 0.6 ºC - 1ºC in average annual temperatures
2070: Increase of 2.5 ºC - 3ºC in average annual temperatures
- 19 -
Key Variable 4:
Increased Storm Events
What can we see from History?
Figure 11:
Average annual of tropical cyclones over the 36 years from 1970 - 2006 affecting
56
Australia (Australian Bureau of meteorology;
The SMRC area, along with the rest of Perth and South West WA was affected by cyclone
Alby in the 1970‟s, which caused widespread damage.
What could possibly happen into the future?
In the north of WA there may be a decrease in the total number of cyclones, however, there is
likely to be an increase in the proportion of tropical cyclones in the more intense categories.
By 2030 there may be a 60% increase in intensity of the most severe storms and a 140%
34
increase by 2070.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Assessment Report projects
that Perth will experience tropical cyclones expected that will be more intense but there is
41
currently no clear picture about the frequency & tracks.
- 20 -
Key Variable 5:
Ocean Acidification / Rise in Sea Temperature
What can we see from History?
Sea surface temperatures in the south east Indian Ocean, including the lower west coast of
Western Australia, have increased by 0.6 - 1 deg C over the past 50-100 years, while the
strength of regional ocean currents have reduced by 20 to 30 per cent. (Dept. of Environment
54
and Conservation )
Figure 12:
Historic
56
meteorology)
Trends
in
Sea
Surface
Temperature
(Australian
Bureau
of
The pH of the ocean has already changed significantly since the pre-industrial era, and is now
about 0.1 pH units lower (the pH scale is logarithmic so a change of 1 pH unit corresponds to
52
a 10-fold change in acidity) . This acidity is approaching the levels which would be
unfavourable for corals, and the rate of calcination of marine organisms in general would
drop, and erosion of existing calcium carbonate shells begins. The effects of the increased
52
acidity in the ocean can already be observed in some biological systems .
What could possibly happen into the future?
Sea surface temperatures are projected to increase by 1ºC - 2ºC by the 2030s and 2ºC - 3ºC
54
by the 2070s.
Conditions detrimental for the growth of important calcifying plankton species could occur
52
around 2050 – 2060.
6.0.
Climate Change Risk Analysis for the City of Rockingham
A Climate Change Risk Analysis was performed on each of the identified key variables. The
outcomes of this process are summarised on the following 7 pages:
- 21 -
6.1
Summary Overview of Risk Analysis Findings
The Key Findings from the Climate Change Risk analysis performed for the City of Rockingham can be seen in Figure 13 below.
Figure 13:
Summary overview of the City of Rockingham Key Climate Change Variables, Areas Impacted and Risk Evaluation
Key CC Variables
Areas Impacted
Risk Evaluation
Now 2030 2070
Sea Level Rise
Foreshore, Beaches, Facilities, Jetties, Boat Ramps
Biodiversity
Parks, Reserves, Wetlands
Tourism
Residential, Commercial, Industrial Properties, Marinas
Road and Transport Infrastructure, Drainage
Islands
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Low
Low
Low
Extreme
Extreme
Extreme
Extreme
Extreme
Extreme
Low
Now 2030 2070
Reduced Rainfall
Parks, Reserves, Wetlands (incl Biodiversity), Sport Grounds
Public Health
Utilities
Road and Transport Infrastructure, Drainage
Facilities
Lakes, Water Ponds, Water Features
Bushfires
Medium
Low
Medium
Medium
Medium
Low
Medium
High
Medium
High
Medium
Medium
Medium
High
Extreme
High
High
High
High
High
Medium
Now 2030 2070
Increased Temperature
Biodiversity
Public Health
Facilities and Buildings
Road and Transport Infrastructure
Utilities
Parks, Reserves, Wetlands
Sport Grounds
Medium
Medium
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
High
Medium
Low
Low
Medium
Medium
Low
Extreme
High
High
High
High
Medium
Medium
Now 2030 2070
Increased Storm Events
Foreshore, Beaches, Facilities, Jetties, Boat Ramps, Roads
Utilities
Residential, Commercial, Industrial Properties
Public Health
Rivers
Parks and Reserves, Biodiversity
Road and Transport Infrastructure, Drainage
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Low
Low
High
High
High
High
High
Medium
Medium
Extreme
Extreme
Extreme
Extreme
Extreme
High
High
Now 2030 2070
Ocean Acidification /
Sea Temp
Infrastructure
Biodiversity
Low
Low
Medium Medium
Medium Medium
6.2
Risk Register for the City of Rockingham
The following pages represent the Risks identified under each of the key elements of Climate Change.
Notes:
1. Dates given for actions indicate the completion date for that action
2. Trigger points might be identified for some actions as and when new knowledge becomes available. These will be
incorporated into annual updates of the Plan.
- 23 -
Sea Level Rise
Key Assumptions:
(From the SMRC Climate Change Risk
Management and Adaptation Action
plan for the South Metropolitan
Councils, September 2009)
Sea level rises with 20 cm
Sea levels moves onshore
with 20 m
As is
Now
Foreshore,
Beaches,
Jetties, Boat
Ramps,
Facilities and
Buildings
(Council
property)
Biodiversity
Parks,
Reserves,
Wetlands
Tourism
Residential,
Commercial,
Industrial
properties and
Marinas
Road and
Transport
Infrastructure,
and drainage
Islands
Sea level rises with 60 cm
Sea levels moves onshore
with 60 m
2030
2070
Risk / What might happen
Change / loss / shift in beach / coastal env
Costly Engineering solutions to protect the
beach line ($)
Reduced amenity and recreation
Ecological loss and buffer effect lost
Toilet blocks & SLS Club - Not in operation
No public access is possible
Groundwater ingress
Facilities affected by rising levels
Inundation and loss
New design criteria and higher costs for new
installations
Maintenance cost rise
Lack of access to ocean
Impacts on environmental research (loss of
access)
(By 2070 the jetties would have been replaced
anyway due to operating life. New design etc)
Likelihood
Unlikely
Loss of foreshore ecology
Change in marine life
Increase in salinity and water levels (?)
Affects tourism e.g. dolphins
Change / loss / shift in Parks / reserves
Reduced amenity and Recreational value lost
Ecological loss and buffer effect lost
Tourism declines due to impact on foreshore,
jetties, islands etc. (2011 value ~ $40 mill)
Rare
Insignificant
Low
Possible
Moderate
Medium
Likely
Catastrophic
Extrem e
Unlikely
Insignificant
Low
Possible
Moderate
Medium
Likely
Catastrophic
Extrem e
Rare
Insignificant
Low
Possible
Moderate
Medium
Likely
Catastrophic
Extrem e
Loss of properties
Loss of rates
Legal liabilities
Access to properties / facilties
Damage and increased maintenance
Impact on demographics and local economy
Possible Legal implications (to the City?) if they
are built
Rare
Insignificant
Low
Unlikely
Minor
Low
Almost Certain Catastrophic
Extrem e
Loss of access to properties and businesses
Loss of access to foreshore and beaches
Additional stress to surrounding roads
Access to islands
Flooding of Cockburn Sound Avenue, Kwinana
Freeway and Riverside Drive
Inundated - all inspection covers under water
Complete redesign / relocate
Loss of amenity
Garden Island - economic impact to be
considered - loss of demographics and impacts
on tourism
Rare
Consequences
Insignificant
Rating
Low
Likelihood
Possible
Consequences
Moderate
Rating
Medium
Likelihood
Likely
Consequences
Catastrophic
Rating
Action
Extrem e Perform risk assessment with regards to the location and building of all new facilities and the possible
Capital Works
Env & Planning
When?
When new
facilities are
planned
Upon replacement
of facilities
As required
Ongoing
Capital Works
Jan-13
Analysis of likely Financial liability arising from Climate Change Risk
Act upon deterioration of Mercy point Jetty and upgrade of the Jetty to Climate Change Standards
Identify beach areas that will be more prone to erosion and develop actions to address this
Consider impacts of Climate Change with the planning and development of the Secret harbour Surf Life
Saving club (Revised SPP 2.6 setback of 88 m would imply flooding of the planned building with rising
sea levels and a severe storm event)
Develop Jetty and Boat Ramp Replacement Program
Determine through research and feedback from Peron Naturaliste and Cockburn Sound Alliance Coastal
impact studies what the possible impact of sea level rise could be on Biodiversity
Complete flora and weed vegetation survey for the CoR Foreshore reserves
Testing of the groundwater to determine groundwater ingress
Determine impact of Coastal Sea level rise on Parks, Reserves and Wetlands and assess the Risk.
Finance
Capital Works
Capital Works
Infrastructure
Planning
end 2013
Current
mid 2013
2012
Capital Works
Env & Planning
2012
Ongoing
Env & Planning
Parks Services
Parks Services
mid 2012
Ongoing
2013
Consider Diversification of attractions to Rockingham
Track actual and potential impact of Climate Change on tourism. Consider alternatives with the
planning and design of events
Identify Critical hot spot areas that would require immediate action in the next 1-5 years. Develop
actions to address.
Identify the other most susceptable areas, the trigger points for action over the next 5-20 years, and
what the action(s) should be
Monitor developments with planning Policies with regards to the approval of developments in Risk Areas
Economic Devt
Economic Devt
2014
2014
Planning Dept.
Oct-12
Planning Dept.
Mar-13
Planning Dept.
Ongoing
Climate change to be given consideration with the development of the New Town Planning Scheme
Climate Change Risk Assessment to be included for CoR Development Approvals (taking into account
the 88 metre setback as per SPP 2.6)
Develop an understanding of possible legal implications for CoR with regards to the approval of
developments that are subjected to Climate Change Risk into the future
Determine which roads would be "at risk" with rising sea levels (2030 and 2070) and determine trigger
points for action
Map the drainage points and determine drainage points would be "at risk" with rising sea levels (2030
and 2070). Develop actions to mitigate or adapt.
Track the historic rise in sea levels as per the Dept of Transport markers and plan for the building of sea
walls where it would be required
Map the contours of the road and transport infrastructure and determine what roads will be impacted by
a 60 metres rise in the sea level. Develop actions to mitigate or adapt. (Possible consultant
involvement).
No actions yet
Planning Dept.
Planning Dept.
2014
Immediate
Planning Dept.
Eng Services
Ongoing as info
becomes available
end 2013
Eng Services
end 2013
Eng Services
2015
Eng Services
2014
-
-
impact of Climate Change on such developments, with adaptation or mitgation actions to address.
Template to be developed to support this.
Facilities that have been identified for replacement to be redesigned for possible climate change
impacts with regards to location and design standard
Investigate the possibility of sea walls to protect current Infrastructure & Foreshore vegetation
Peron Naturaliste and Cockburn Sounds Alliance Coastal Impact Studies outcomes to be fed into CoR
and acted upon
Determine which current land, buildings and infrastructure would be "at risk" with rising sea levels (2030
and 2070) and adapt actions to prepare for and act upon these impacts. Consider the remaining useful
life of these buildings with the assessment.
Rare
Insignificant
Insignificant
Low
Low
Unlikely
Rare
Minor
Insignificant
Low
Low
Almost Certain Catastrophic
Rare
Insignificant
Extrem e
Low
Who?
Capital Works
Capital Works
Reduced Rainfall
Key Assumptions:
(From the SMRC Climate Change Risk
Management and Adaptation Action
plan for the South Metropolitan
Councils, September 2009)
5 - 10% less Rainfall
10 - 20% less Rainfall
1% decline in rainfall
1% decline in rainfall
results in a 2-3% decline in results in a 2-3% decline in
river runoff
river runoff
As is
Now
Parks, Reserves (incl.
streetscapes),
Wetlands and
Biodiversity, Sport
Grounds
Public health
Utilities
Road and transport
infrastructure,
Drainage
Facilities
Lakes, Water Ponds,
Water features
Bushfires
Risk / What might happen
Less groundwater results in quicker dying of
plants / trees
Watering needs increase
More re-use of rainfall / sewerage required
Re-design of parks and reserves required
Hydrozoning of parks: Specific water
requirements for specific areas
Increased bushfire risk
Planning dept to consider less parks
More weeds and pests
Changes to wetlands and wetland ecosystems
Demand and maintenance for outdoor pools
Backwash of pools and keeping them full
Impact on general health and wellbeing due to
less access to sporting facilities
Less production of fresh / healthy food leads to
obesity increase
More potentially harmful algal blooms limiting
direct contact recreational water sports
Compromised fitness-related health programs
More use of grey water (from baths, showers,
washing machines) increases the risk of
pathogens and illnesses
Cost and availability of water
Distribution of services
Consider installation of additional piping etc will
increase costs
Re-use of water
More desalination plants increase costs of water
Restrictions - authorities could limit/restrict water
for certain applications
Water license and extraction issues
2070
Consequences
Rating
Likelihood
Consequences
Rating
Likelihood
Consequences
Rating
Possible
Minor
Medium
Likely
Moderate
High
Likely
Catastrophic
Extrem e Determine which parks would be "at risk" with less rainfall and higher
Action
Who?
When?
Parks Services 2014
Rare
Insignificant
Low
Likely
Minor
Medium
Likely
Moderate
High
temperatures (2030 and 2070)
Determine which plants and animals would be "at risk" with less
rainfall and higher temperatures (2030 and 2070)
Regular testing of groundwater for signs of salt intrusion
Consider the possible re-use of grey water and for what applications
the water could be used for
Identify opportunities from the Industrial re-use of water project : CoR
to feed off this water?
Resurfacing sport grounds / groundwater use and benefits in low
rainfall climate - consider for CoR application
No actions yet
Likely
Minor
Medium
Likely
Moderate
High
Likely
Major
High
No actions yet
-
-
Minor
Medium
Likely
Minor
Medium
Likely
Moderate
High
No actions yet
-
-
Minor
Medium
Likely
Minor
Medium
Likely
Moderate
High
Manager Asset Ongoing
Services
Rare
Insignificant
Low
Likely
Minor
Medium
Likely
Moderate
High
Measure and monitor damage to buildings and the structure of other
assets caused by shifting foundations due to subsidence, and
increased extremes between wet and dry conditions
No actions yet
Unlikely
Moderate
Medium
Likely
Major
High
Unlikely
Major
Medium Review / Update current bushfire controls, taking into consideration
Possible
Construction of roads requires water and would
increase costs
Bitumen recipe might have to change due to large
volume of water required
Increased maintenance and repair of roads
Less flushing of the system
Increased degradation of materials and storm
water pipelines due to ground movements
Possible
Reduced life of assets and increased
maintenance
Removal to conserve water increases costs
Design changes
Number and scale of bushfires expected to
increase but could come down over time due to
less fuel being available to burn
2030
Likelihood
- 25 -
Climate Change related extreme events
Env & Planning 2013
Parks Services Ongoing
Env & Planning 2013
Env & Planning 2013
Infrastructure
Development
-
2012
-
-
-
Safety Services Ongoing
Increased Temperature
0.5 - 1.0% incr. in temp.
2.5 - 3.0% incr. in temp.
15 - 18 extreme heat
25 extreme heat events
events
~ moving 300 km North of
~ moving 100 km North of
CoR
Key Assumptions:
(From the SMRC Climate Change Risk Management and
Adaptation Action plan for the South Metropolitan Councils,
September 2009)
As is
Now
Biodiversity
Risk / What might happen
Loss of Ecology
Increased salinity
Change in species abundance
Change in species distribution
More weed species
Change in pollination cycles
Public Health
Hot spells impact on the elderly and outdoor workforce
Work hour flexibility required to accommodate water delays
Outdoor workforce faces threat of increased dehydration. Need long sleeve
Night time temps affect workforce > incidents
Malnutrition due to declines in food production and death of livestock
More respiratory diseases due to increased production of allergens
Less fishing, hunting due to changes in flora and fauna distribution
Increase in vector borne diseases eg. Ross River Virus, Dengue etc.
Increased temperatures, coupled with changes in rainfall patterns can
increase the geographical range, seasonality and incidence of vector borne
diseases and the possibility for an expansion of infection zones (eg. Ross
River fever)
Increased temperatures can lead to public health issues, with increased
potential for food preparation related illness.
Facilties and Buildings Increased demand for aquatic facilities
Demand / pressure on temperature control increases operating costs
Building fatigue results in increased maintenance costs
Impacts on durability of cement and bitumen - solvent evaporation rise in
results in damage to roads incr. maintenance costs
Increased demand for shading at CoR facilities
More respiratory diseases due to more aeroallergens
2030
2070
Likelihood
Consequences
Rating
Likelihood
Consequences
Rating
Likelihood
Likely
Minor
Medium
Likely
Moderate
High
Almost Certain Major
Possible
Minor
Unlikely
Unlikely
Minor
Medium
Low
Possible
Minor
Unlikely
Minor
Medium
Low
Consequences
Likely
Extrem e
Moderate
Likely
Rating
Moderate
High
High
Action
Complete flora and weed vegetation survey for the
CoR Foreshore reserves
Who?
Parks
Development
When?
Ongoing
Track the appearance / disappearance of protected
animal and plant species in CoR operational areas
as a result of the temp shift.
Parks
Development
Ongoing
Ensure OH&S policies and procedures include
changed working hours and appropriate heat
protective clothing for council employees and
contractors.
Human
Resources
Ongoing
Faster removal of putrescible waste
Parks
Development
Ongoing
The City to ensure its pest (especially mosquito)
control and management programs adequately
account for and address the chance of increased
vectors and the resultant diseases.
Health
Ongoing
Monitor and forecast the effect of increased
Building
temperatures on power consumption and bills due to maintenance
increased air-conditioning in council and community
buildings.
Ongoing
Ensure all council controlled open areas and
recreation areas have adequate shade and water
provision for increased temperatures.
Community and Ongoing
Leisure
Facilities, Parks
Development
Measure and monitor damage to buildings and the
structure of other assets caused by shifting
foundations due to subsidence, and increased
extremes between wet and dry conditions
Asset Services
Ongoing
Minor
Low
Unlikely
Minor
Low
Likely
Moderate
High
No actions yet
-
-
Insignificant
Low
Likely
Minor
Medium
Likely
Moderate
High
No actions yet
-
-
Unlikely
Insignificant
Low
Possible
Minor
Medium
Possible
Minor
Medium
Ensure increased temperatures (in general) and heat Safety Services
waves in particular are considered in bushfire
management plans and bushfire forecasting.
Rare
Insignificant
Low
Unlikely
Insignificant
Low
Possible
Minor
Medium
No actions yet
Road and Transport
Infrastructure
Increased maintenance and repair of roads
Increased downtime at Kwinana Port (Australian Stevedores stop work at
38ºC)
Utilities
Rare
Increased power demand and cost due to aircon demands
Power outages due to increased demand impacts on challenger court, child
care facilities etc
Need for generators increases cost
Parks and Reserves,
Wetlands
Less groundwater results in quicker dying of plants / trees
Watering needs increases
More re-use of rainfall / sewerage required
Re-design of parks and reserves required
Hydrozoning of parks: Specific water requirements for specific areas
Increased bushfire risk
Planning dept to consider less parks
Infrastructure improvements eg. Shades, shelters.
Usage demands and the time of day use changes
Plants susceptable to heat events will die off
Changes in habitat availability for species
More weed species
Increased park closure due to increased temp's and fire risk
Sports Grounds
Potential seasonal and time changes to the way sport facilities are used
Increased cost to demand for floodlights: installation and operating costs
Increase in maintenance and watering costs
- 26 -
-
Ongoing
-
Increased intensity of Storm Events
Key Assumptions:
(From the SMRC Climate Change Risk
Management and Adaptation Action plan for
the South Metropolitan Councils, September
2009)
60% incr. in storm
intensity
As is
Now
Foreshore, Beaches,
Jetties, Boat Ramps,
Facilities and
Buildings (Council
property)
Utilities
Risk / What might happen
Likelihood
Possible
Sea level issues - sea level effects will be enhanced by
storm events
Increased maintenance due to wear and tear
Increased costs due to damage and maintenance
Increased insurance costs
Redesign and standards increase building / capital costs
Demands for Underground power - outages due to power
lines etc
Impacts on Community and operations
Possible
Possible
Residential,
Legal liabilities
Commercial, Industrial Redesign standars of buildings affected planning.
properties, Marinas
City costs for cleanup
Damage increases affect economy & businesses struggle
Reduction in property prices
Public Health
Rivers
Injury and drowning - CoR liability - Increased frequency
and need. CoR Planning and operating costs
Challenges with restricted people
Access to public health facilities affected
Challenges with communicating health risks to the
community
Change
in demographics
people
away from
Serpentine
> innundation with
> results
in moving
public health
Possible
140% incr. in storm
intensity
2030
2070
Consequences
Rating
Likelihood
Consequences
Rating Likelihood
Consequences
Rating
Insignificant
Medium
Likely
Minor
High
Almost Certain
Moderate
Extrem e
Minor
Medium
Likely
Moderate
High
Almost Certain
Major
Extrem e
Moderate
Medium
Likely
Major
Insignificant
Medium
Likely
Minor
Possible
Minor
Medium
Likely
High
High
Moderate
High
Almost Certain
Catastrophic
Almost Certain
Moderate
Almost Certain
Major
Extrem e
Extrem e
Extrem e
issues, mosquitos and diseases
Insurance for residents of CoR liability in terms of flood
levels and planning aspects
Damaged bridges, costs
Possible
Parks & Reserves,
Biodiversity
Costs increased associated to repair damage and to
clean up after storms
1/100 year storm takes 20 m3 per 100 meters: removing
the sand costs $ and not enough time to recover
inbetween events
Reduction in drainage function of parks and reserves
Increased damage and disturbance to species
Spreading of weed species
Road & Transport
Infrastructure &
Drainage
Possible
Erosion, Flooding, Debris
Drainage cannot handle extra flooding and results in
buildup of road and collapse
Requires redesign of drainage and increase in costs
Downstream areas of the drainage could result in erosion
Requires redesign of approval for subdivisions
Dangerous Roads due to Power lines, trees and other
obstacles
Action
Design infrastructure to withstand 1/100 storm events
Perform a Risk Analysis on potential damage to current infrastructure in the case
of a severe storm event. Develop actions to address.
Who?
Capital Works
Capital Works
When?
Ongoing
end 2012
Stay informed of progress with the installation of underground power lines
Consider the acquisition of generators and backup power for major operating
facilities and airconditioning
Communication systems to be tested for robustness given a situation where an
evacuation is required with power failure
Insurance covers damage caused by Storm events but not damage caused by sea
level rise. CoR to consider the implications of this.
Capital Works
Capital Works
Ongoing
mid 2013
IT
2013
Finance Manager
Ongoing
Consider backup power for community evacuation facilities
Plan for the displacement of people and make facilities available. (FISA
responsible for the relocation of the people and DCP to operate the facilities eg,
catering)
Make available a processing facility for the processing of claims and requests
Develop City of Rockingham Business Continuity Plan
Capital Works
Safety Services
2014
2014
Safety Services
Safety Services
2014
2014
Planning process to consider sources of mosquito breeding. Dept of Planning to
assist with this.
Health Services
2013
-
-
Moderate
Low
Likely
Major
Medium Almost Certain
Catastrophic
High
No actions yet
Minor
Low
Likely
Moderate
Medium Almost Certain
Major
High
Check drainage infrastructure and network to ensure there are no exceedances of Engineering
drainage capacity (and localised flooding) due to more intense rainfall. This
Services
includes modelling and considering a reduction in drainage capacity due to sea
level rise and storm surge especially for drainage systems near the ocean.
- 27 -
mid 2013
Ocean Acidification / Sea Temp Rise
Key Assumptions:
( From Australian Bureau of Metereology
(http://www.bom.gov.au/cgibin/climate/change/averagemaps.cgi?map=
sst&season=0112)
As is: pH of 8.2 and
average sea temp of 20 º
Almost insignificant
Lower Ocean Acidity but
change in Ocean
impact not yet seen: pH of
Acidity: pH of 8.2 and
7.9 and average sea temp
average sea temp of 21º
of 22º
Now
2030
2070
Risk / What might happen
Likelihood
Consequence
Rating
Likelihood
Consequence Rating
Likelihood
Consequence
Rating
Action
Infrastructure
Cement pile on's > corrosion and rust increases with
acidification > impacts on construction costs > more
expensive materials (currently better recipe in place)
Port infrastructure degrades due to corrosion arising
from ocean acidification.
Rare
Insignificant
Low
Possible
Minor
Medium
Possible
Moderate
Medium
No actions yet
-
-
Biodiversity
Iirukandji jellyfish moving southward along WA caused a Rare
larger threat of stings
Major
Low
Unlikely
Major
Medium
Unlikely
Major
Medium
No actions yet
-
-
- 28 -
Who?
When?
7.0
Key Strategic Objectives and next steps
7.1. Key Strategic Objectives
Community objectives



Educate the community on what Climate Change is and how it would affect them
Address all potential Health and Safety issues with regards to the community
Ensure continuity of services and facilities to the community as far as is possible, especially
with extreme events
Organisational objectives



Ensure knowledge and awareness amongst staff about what Climate Change is and what
potential threats it could hold for the organisation and its operations
Develop business continuity plan through the City‟s risk management framework
Minimise costs associated with planning for and reacting to Climate Change events, without
compromising the sustainability of the organisation and the safety of its people
7.2. Key Next Steps
Key next steps that would ensure a common level of understanding and ongoing implementation of
the identified actions presented on pages 32-41 include:

A vigorous approach towards knowledge transfer across the organisation and within the
community
o The Climate Change focus group will address this through appropriate briefing
documents and information sessions

Active tracking of the implementation of identified mitigation and adaptation actions that have
been developed from the Risk Analysis and are in support of the Key Strategic objectives
o The Climate Change focus group meet on a monthly basis to discuss progress with
the implementation of the actions and to develop further actions as and when
required

Ongoing update and incorporation of the mitigation actions identified in the Corporate Local
Action plan (CLAP) which sets targets for corporate greenhouse gas emissions reduction.
The CLAP was first developed and endorsed in 2000 to help the City achieve its 20%
emissions reduction target, as set by the Cities for Climate Protection Programme (CCP). The
Plan is regularly reviewed to ensure that it is current and to enable actions to be modified and
priorities to be re-set.
All identified actions are in support of these Key strategic objectives that have been identified
8.0
Implementation Actions for each identified Key Element
Notes
i.Dates given for actions indicate the completion date for that action
ii.Trigger points might be identified for some actions as and when new knowledge becomes available.
These will be incorporated into annual updates of the Plan.
8.1
General Actions
Implementation Action
Assess Insurance Risks e.g. bushfire, storms, sea level rise, properties
Follow up with the Local Government Insurance Services to determine the specific
Climate Change aspects of the City‟s insurance policy/s
Determine CoR responsibility with development of Marinas and act accordingly
Upon acceptance of the draft Climate Change response Strategy by Council in
September, it will be put up for Public consultation during October/November
Plan and Conduct Community and staff Education and Information Sessions where
applicable following approval of the CoR Climate Change Response Strategy
8.2
Estimated
Cost
Team plan
None
Financial
Services
None
Financial
Services
None
Strategic
Planning &
Environment
$1,000
Strategic
Planning &
Environment
$ 5 000
Brett Ashby (Manager Strategic
Planning & Environment), Karin
Strachan (Manager Strategy
Coordination)
Brett Ashby (Manager Strategic
Planning & Environment), Karin
Strachan (Manager Strategy
Coordination)
Timeframe
Dec 2012
Dec 2012
Ongoing
Oct 2012
end 2012
Internal Stakeholder Communication Actions
Internal Stakeholder Communication Plan
All Operations / Divisions / CEO
Councillors
Strategic
Planning &
Environment
Responsible
person
Allan Moles (Manager Financial
Services)
Allan Moles (Manager Financial
Services)
Brett Ashby (Manager Strategic
Planning & Environment)
Responsible person
Steering Group (EMT) to be informed and to provide inputs at
All
Climate Change Response Plan Steering Group meetings and to
give feedback back to the CEO and Divisions
Councillors to be informed through the monthly Bulletin Reports Karin (Manager Strategy
and annual Team Plan presentations
Coordination) / Brett
(Manager Strategic Planning
& Environment)
- 30 -
Timeframe Status
6-weekly
Ongoing
Monthly
Ongoing
8.3
External Stakeholder Communication Actions
Responsible person
Timeframe Status
Peron Naturaliste Partnership (PNP) Regular feedback from meetings
& Cockburn Sound Coastal Alliance
(Local Govt's within Dept of Defense)
External Stakeholder Communication Plan
Brett (Manager Strategic
Planning & Environment)
As required
Ongoing
Community - Local, District, RegionalCommunity education where applicable
Staff education wrt adaptation and mitigation (workshops etc) following the Plan
Karin (Manager Strategy
Coordination) / Brett
(Manager Strategic Planning
& Environment) / All
Sept 2012
Not
started
All / Karin (Manager Strategy
Coordination) / Brett
(Manager Strategic Planning
& Environment)
State and Federal Government
Obtain info as far as new information becomes available
All
Special Interest groups
Draft Response Plan to be shared with them for inputs
Karin (Manager Strategy
Coordination) / Brett
(Manager Strategic Planning
& Environment) / All
WALGA
Obtain info as far as new information becomes available
All
Institute of Public Works Engineering Obtain info as far as new information becomes available
All
Department of Transport
Obtain info as far as new information becomes available and feed Ian (Manager Engineering
back to the group
Services), Gary Rogers
(Manager Capital Projects)
Department of Water
Be aware of any rulings on watering for Public Open Space that Ian (Manager Engineering
would impact on developments
Services)
WAPC
WAPC is informed through the PNP and Cockburn Sound
Brett (Manager Strategic
Alliance on Coastal vulnerability issues
Planning & Environment)
Land Developers / UDIA
Focus group to stay informed of relevant proposed coastal
Brett (Manager Strategic
developments including Port Kennedy, Golden Bay and the
Planning & Environment) /
Mangles Bay Marina
Mick (Manager Community
Infrastructure Planning)
Universities, institutions
Track new research and publications
All /
Obtain information on Plant biodiversity through the University
James (Manager Park s
based Canopy study
Development)
Ongoing
Early 2012
Ongoing
No started
Ongoing
July 2012
Ongoing
Not started
Ongoing
Ongoing
Ongoing
Ongoing
Ongoing
Ongoing
Ongoing
Ongoing
Ongoing
Ongoing
Ongoing
Ongoing
Ongoing
Ongoing
Neighbouring LGA's
Through PNP and Cockburn Sound alliance
Benchmarking studies
Ongoing
Ongoing
Not
started
Not
started
Ongoing
Ongoing
Industry / Industrial strip
Through PNP and Cockburn Sound alliance Coastal vulnerability
studies
Maintain informed through the Economic Development
Department
Ongoing
Ongoing
Ongoing
Ongoing
Government Agencies
Chamber of Commerce
Gather info from Government Agencies as and when required
Involve them at the point of Community engagement
- 31 -
Brett (Manager Strategic
Planning & Environment)
Karin (Manager Strategy
Coordination)
Brett (Manager Strategic
Planning & Environment)
Cadell (Manager Economic
Development)
8.4
Key Element 1:
Sea Level Rise
Estimated
Implementation Action
Cost
Team plan
Perform risk assessment with regards to the location and building of all new facilities None
Capital Works
and the possible impact of Climate Change on such developments
Responsible
person
Gary Rogers (Manager Capital
Work s)
Facilities that have been identified for replacement to be redesigned for possible
climate change impacts with regards to location and design standard
Investigate the possibility of sea walls to protect current infrastructure / foreshore
vegetation
Peron Naturaliste and Cockburn Sounds Alliance Coastal Impact Studies outcomes
to be fed into CoR and acted upon
Capital
Capital Works
None
Capital Works
None
Determine which current land, buildings and infrastructure would be "at risk" with
rising sea levels (2030 and 2070) and adapt actions to prepare for and act upon
these impacts. Consider the remaining useful life of these buildings with the
assessment.
Analysis of likely Financial liability arising from Climate Change Risk
None
Strategic
Planning &
Environment
Capital Works
Gary Rogers (Manager Capital
Work s)
Gary Rogers (Manager Capital
Work s)
Brett Ashby (Manager Strategic
Planning & Environment)
Act upon deterioration of Mercy point Jetty and upgrade of the Jetty to Climate
Change Standards
Identify beach areas that will be more prone to erosion and develop actions to
address this
Consider impacts of Climate Change with the planning and development of the
Secret harbour Surf Life Saving club (Revised SPP 2.6 setback of 88 m would imply
flooding of the planned building with rising sea levels and a severe storm event)
Develop Jetty and Boat Ramp Replacement Program
Capital
Financial
Services
Capital Works
Capital
Capital Works
Capital
Community
Infrastructure
Planning
Capital Works
None
Capital
Testing of the groundwater to determine groundwater ingress
Determine impact of Coastal Sea level rise on Parks, Reserves, Wetlands and
Foreshore and assess the Risk.
Consider Diversification of attractions to Rockingham
None
Track actual and potential impact of Climate Change on tourism. Consider
alternatives with the planning and design of events
Identify critical sea level rise hot spot areas that would require immediate action in
the next 1-5 years. Develop actions to address.
None
None
None
Identify the other most susceptable areas, the trigger points for action over the next 5- None
20 years, and what the action(s) should be
Monitor developments with planning Policies with regards to the approval of
developments in Risk Areas
None
Climate change to be given consideration with the development of the New Town
Planning Scheme
None
Climate Change Risk Assessment to be included for CoR Development Approvals
(taking into account the 88 metre setback as per SPP 2.6)
None
Develop an understanding of possible legal implications for CoR with regards to the
approval of developments that are subjected to Clmate Change Risk into the future
Determine which roads would be "at risk" with rising sea levels (2030 and 2070) and
determine trigger points for action. Map the contours of the road and transport
infrastructure and determine what roads will be impacted by a 60 metres rise in the
sea level. Develop actions to mitigate or adapt (Possible consultant involvement).
None
Map the drainage points and determine drainage points would be "at risk" with rising None
sea levels (2030 and 2070). Develop actions to mitigate or adapt.
Track the historic rise in sea levels as per the Dept of Transport markers and plan for None
the building of sea walls where it would be required
- 32 -
Parks
Development
Parks
Development
Economic
Development
Economic
Development
Strategic
Planning &
Environment
Strategic
Planning &
Environment
Strategic
Planning &
Environment
Strategic
Planning &
Environment
Planning &
Development
Services
Timeframe
When new
facilities are
planned
Upon
replacement
As required
Ongoing
Gary Rogers (Manager Capital
Work s)
Jan 2013
Allan Moles (Manager Financial
Services)
Gary Rogers (Manager Capital
Work s)
Gary Rogers (Manager Capital
Work s)
Mick Quirk (Manager Community
Infrastructure Planning)
end 2013
Gary Rogers (Manager Capital
Work s)
James Henson (Manager Park s
Development)
James Henson (Manager Park s
Development)
Cadell Buss (Manager Economic
Development)
Cadell Buss (Manager Economic
Development)
Brett Ashby (Manager Strategic
Planning & Environment)
Current
mid 2013
2012
2012
Ongoing
2013
2014
2014
Oct 2012
Brett Ashby (Manager Strategic
Planning & Environment)
March 2013
Brett Ashby (Manager Strategic
Planning & Environment)
Ongoing
Brett Ashby (Manager Strategic
Planning & Environment)
2014
Strategic
Planning &
Environment
Engineering
Services
Brett Ashby (Manager Strategic
Immediate
Planning & Environment ) / Mike
Ross (Manager Statutory
Planning)
Brett Ashby (Manager Strategic
Ongoing as
Planning & Environment)
info becomes
available
Ian Daniels (Manager
end 2013
Engineering Services)
Engineering
Services
Engineering
Services
Ian Daniels (Manager
Engineering Services)
Ian Daniels (Manager
Engineering Services)
end 2013
2015
8.5
Key Element 2:
Reduced Rainfall
Estimated
Cost
Team plan
None
Parks
Development
$68 000
Parks
Development
Consider the possible re-use of grey water and for what applications the water could None
Strategic
be used for
Planning &
Environment
Identify opportunities from the Industrial re-use of water project : CoR to feed off this None
Strategic
water?
Planning &
Environment
Resurfacing sport grounds / groundwater use and benefits in low rainfall climate None
Community
consider for CoR application
Infrastructure
Planning
Review / Update current bushfire controls, taking into consideration Climate Change None
Community
related extreme events
Safety
Measure and monitor damage to buildings and the structure of other assets caused None
Asset
by shifting foundations due to subsidence, and increased extremes between wet and
Management
dry conditions
Implementation Action
Determine which parks, plants and animals would be "at risk" with less rainfall and
higher temperatures (2030 and 2070)
Regular testing of groundwater for signs of salt intrusion.
8.6
Key Element 3:
Responsible
person
James Henson (Manager Park s
Development)
James Henson (Manager Park s
Development)
Brett Ashby (Manager Strategic
Planning & Environment)
Brett Ashby (Manager Strategic
Planning & Environment)
Timeframe
2014
Ongoing
2013
2013
Mick Quirk (Manager Community 2012
Infrastructure Planning)
Genevieve Rowles (Manager
Community Safety)
Kelton Hincks (Manager Asset
Services)
Ongoing
Ongoing
Increased Temperature
Estimated
Cost
Team plan
None
Parks
Development
Implementation Action
Complete flora and weed vegetation survey for the CoR Foreshore reserves
Track the appearance / disappearance of protected animal and plant species in CoR None
operational areas as a result of the temp shift.
Faster removal of Putrescible waste
None
The City to ensure its pest (especially mosquito) control and management programs
adequately account for and address the chance of increased vectors and the
resultant
Measure diseases.
and monitor damage to buildings and the structure of other assets caused
by shifting foundations due to subsidence, and increased extremes between wet and
dry conditions
Ensure increased temperatures (in general) and heat waves in particular are
considered in bushfire management plans and bushfire forecasting.
- 33 -
None
None
Safety
Services
Responsible
person
James Henson (Manager Park s
Development)
Parks
Development
Parks
Development
Health
Timeframe
Ongoing
James Henson (Manager Park s
Development)
James Henson (Manager Park s
Development)
Rod Fielding (Manager Health
Services)
Asset Services Kelton Hincks (Manager Asset
Services)
Ongoing
Safety Services Genevieve Rowles (Manager
Safety Services)
Ongoing
Ongoing
Ongoing
Ongoing
8.7
Key Element 4:
Increased Storm Events
Estimated
Cost
Team plan
Capital
Capital Works
Implementation Action
Design infrastructure to withstand 1/100 storm events
Perform a Risk Analysis on potential damage to current infrastructure in the case of
a severe storm event. Develop actions to address.
Stay informed of progress with the installation of underground power lines
Capital
None
Capital Works
Consider the acquisition of generators and backup power for major operating facilities
and airconditioning
Communication systems to be tested for robustness given a situation where an
evacuation is required with power failure
Insurance covers damage caused by Storm events but not damage caused by sea
level rise. CoR to consider the implications of this.
Consider backup power for community evacuation facilities
Capital
Capital Works
None
Information
Systems
Financial
Services
Capital Works
None
Capital
Plan for the displacement of people and make facilities available. (FISA responsible None
for the relocation of the people and DCP to operate the facilities eg, catering)
Make available a processing facility for the processing of claims and requests
Key Element 5:
Community
Safety
None
Community
Safety
Uncertain Community
Safety
Develop City of Rockingham Business Continuity Plan
8.8
Capital Works
Responsible
person
Gary Rogers (Manager Capital
Work
s)
Gary Rogers
(Manager Capital
Work s)
Gary Rogers (Manager Capital
Work
s)
Gary Rogers
(Manager Capital
Work s)
Fiona Lambrick (Manager
Information Systems)
Allan Moles (Manager Financial
Services)
Gary Rogers (Manager Capital
Work s) Rowles (Manager
Genevieve
Timeframe
Ongoing
end 2012
Ongoing
mid 2013
2013
Ongoing
2014
2014
Community Safety)
Genevieve Rowles (Manager
Community Safety)
Genevieve Rowles (Manager
Community Safety)
2014
2014
Ocean Acidification / Sea Temperature Rise
None
8.9
High level Corporate Local Action plan mitigation actions
Estimated
Cost
$0
Team plan
Asset Services
Responsible
person
Manager Asset Services
Manager Strategic Planning
and Environment
Manager Parks Services
Jun-12
$0
Strategic Planning and
Environment
Parks Services
Investigate and Implement a community education program on reducing, reusing and
recycling waste
$5,000
Waste Services
Manager Waste Services
Ongoing
Investigate the purchasing of green power from the Revolving Energy Fund and
investigate the benefits of purchasing Natural Power over Earth Friendly power.
$0
Strategic Planning and
Environment
Manager Strategic Planning
and Environment
Ongoing
Monitor the newly employed data management system from 'Planet Footprint' which
aims to provide easy access to energy, fleet and waste data to allow for tracking
changes in consumption patterns
$5,000
Strategic Planning and
Environment
Manager Strategic Planning
and Environment
Ongoing
Develop and conduct a formal education and awareness CLAP campaign for all staff,
including a series of workshops for existing staff.
$1,000
Strategic Planning and
Environment
Manager Strategic Planning
and Environment
2013
Implementation Action
Develop and implement an energy efficiency policy for decorative lighting, street
lighting, appliances and equipment
Develop a policy to include energy efficiency guidelines in tenders for new Council
buildings, appliances and equipment & develop a sustainable purchasing policy.
Develop a water efficiency policy for Council reserves
$500
- 34 -
Timeframe
Jun-13
Jun-13
9.0
Ensuring alignment with Team Plans (and Budgets)
9.1
Ongoing
Estimated
Implementation Action
Cost
Team plan
Perform risk assessment with regards to the location and building of all new facilities None
Capital Works
and the possible impact of Climate Change on such developments, with adaptation
or mitgation actions to address. Template to be developed to support this.
Responsible
person
Gary Rogers (Manager Capital
Work s)
Facilities that have been identified for replacement to be redesigned for possible
climate change impacts with regards to location and design standard
Investigate the possibility of sea walls to protect current infrastructure
Capital
Capital Works
None
Capital Works
Peron Naturaliste and Cockburn Sounds Alliance Coastal Impact Studies outcomes
to be fed into CoR and acted upon
None
Act upon deterioration of Mercy point Jetty and upgrade of the Jetty to Climate
Change Standards
Testing of the groundwater to determine groundwater ingress
Capital
Strategic
Planning &
Environment
Capital Works
Gary Rogers (Manager Capital
Work s)
Gary Rogers (Manager Capital
Work s)
Brett Ashby (Manager Strategic
Planning & Environment)
Monitor developments with planning Policies with regards to the approval of
developments in Risk Areas
None
Climate Change Risk Assessment to be included for CoR Development Approvals
(taking into account the 88 metre setback as per SPP 2.6)
None
Develop an understanding of possible legal implications for CoR with regards to the
approval of developments that are subjected to Climate Change Risk into the future
None
Regular testing of groundwater for signs of salt intrusion
$68 000
Review / Update current bushfire controls, taking into consideration Climate Change
related extreme events
Complete flora and weed vegetation survey for the CoR Foreshore reserves
None
Track the appearance of protected animal and plant species in CoR operational
areas as a result of the temp shift.
Design infrastructure to withstand 1/100 storm events
None
Stay informed of progress with the installation of underground power lines
None
Upon
replacement
of
Asfacilities
required
Ongoing
Current
Ongoing
Ongoing
Strategic
Planning &
Environment
Parks
Brett Ashby (Manager Strategic
Immediate
Planning & Environment) / Mike
Ross (Manager Statutory
Planning)
Brett Ashby (Manager Strategic
Ongoing as
Planning & Environment)
info becomes
James Henson (Manager Park s available
Ongoing
Development
Community
Safety
Parks
Development
Development)
Genevieve Rowles (Manager
Community Safety)
James Henson (Manager Park s
Development)
Capital
Capital Works
James Henson (Manager Park s
Development)
Gary Rogers (Manager Capital
Work s)
Gary Rogers (Manager Capital
Work s)
Allan Moles (Manager Financial
Services)
Kelton Hincks (Manager Asset
Services)
Ongoing
Capital
Parks
Development
Capital Works
Brett Ashby (Manager Strategic
Planning & Environment)
Ongoing
James Henson (Manager Park s
Development)
Rod Fielding (Manager Health
Services)
Ongoing
None
Insurance covers damage caused by Storm events but not damage caused by for
None
sea level rise. CoR to consider the implications of this
Measure and monitor damage to buildings and the structure of other assets caused None
by shifting foundations due to subsidence, and increased extremes between wet and
dry conditions
Determine CoR responsibility with development of Marinas and act accordingly
None
Faster removal of putrescible waste
None
The City needs to ensure its pest (especially mosquito) control and management
programs adequately account for and address the chance of increased vectors and
the resultant diseases
Measure and monitor damage to buildings and the structure of other assets caused
by shifting foundations due to subsidence, and increased extremes between wet and
dry conditions
Ensure increased temperatures (in general) and heat waves in particular are
considered in bushfire management plans and bushfire forecasting.
Investigate and Implement a community education program on reducing, reusing and
recycling waste
Investigate the purchasing of green power from the Revolving Energy Fund and
investigate the benefits of purchasing Natural Power over Earth Friendly power.
None
Financial
Services
Asset
Management
Strategic
Planning &
Environment
Parks
Development
Health
Ongoing
Ongoing
Ongoing
Ongoing
Ongoing
Ongoing
Ongoing
None
Asset Services Kelton Hincks (Manager Asset
Services)
Ongoing
Safety
Services
$5,000
Safety Services Genevieve Rowles (Manager
Safety Services)
Waste Services Manager Waste Services
Ongoing
$0
Strategic
Planning and
Environment
Strategic
Planning and
Environment
Manager Strategic Planning and
Environment
Ongoing
Manager Strategic Planning and
Environment
Ongoing
Monitor the newly employed data management system from 'Planet Footprint' which $5,000
aims to provide easy access to energy, fleet and waste data to allow for tracking
changes in consumption patterns
- 35 -
Parks
Development
Strategic
Planning &
Environment
Planning &
Development
Services
Gary Rogers (Manager Capital
Work s)
James Henson (Manager Park s
Development)
Brett Ashby (Manager Strategic
Planning & Environment)
Timeframe
When new
facilities are
planned
Ongoing
9.2
Year 1: mid 2012 – mid 2013
Implementation Action
Upon acceptance of the draft Climate Change response Strategy by Council in
September, it will be put up for Public consultation during October/November
Estimated
Cost
Team plan
$1,000
Strategic
Planning &
Environment
Plan and Conduct Community and staff Education and Information Sessions where
applicable following approval of the CoR Climate Change Response Strategy
$5,000 Strategic
Planning &
Environment
Responsible
person
Brett Ashby (Manager Strategic
Planning & Environment), Karin
Strachan (Manager Strategy
Coordination)
Brett Ashby (Manager Strategic
Planning & Environment), Karin
Strachan (Manager Strategy
Coordination)
Gary Rogers (Capital Work s)
Timeframe
Oct 2012
end 2012
Determine which current land, buildings and infrastructure would be "at risk" with
rising sea levels (2030 and 2070) and adapt actions to prepare for and act upon
these impacts. Consider the remaining useful life of these buildings with the
assessment.
Identify beach areas that will be more prone to erosion and develop actions to
address this
Consider
impacts of Climate Change with the planning and development of the
Secret harbour Surf Life Saving club (Revised SPP 2.6 setback of 88 m would imply
flooding of the planned building with rising sea levels and a severe storm event)
None
Capital Works
Capital
Capital
Capital Works
Community
Infrastructure
Planning
Gary Rogers (Capital Work s)
Mick Quirk (Community
Infrastructure Planning)
mid 2013
2012
Resurfacing of sport grounds / groundwater use and benefits in low rainfall climate consider for CoR application
None
Mick Quirk (Community
Infrastructure Planning)
2012
Develop Jetty and Boat Ramp Replacement Program
Identify Critical Sea level rise hot spot areas that would require immediate action in
the next 1-5 years. Develop actions to address.
Capital
None
Community
Infrastructure
Planning
Capital Works
Strategic
Planning &
Environment
Strategic
Planning &
Environment
Capital Works
Gary Rogers (Capital Work s)
Brett Ashby (Manager Strategic
Planning & Environment)
2012
Oct 2012
Identify the other most Sea level Rise susceptable areas, the trigger points for action None
over the next 5-20 years, and what the action(s) should be
Perform a Risk Analysis on potential damage to current infrastructure in the case of None
a severe storm event. Develop actions to address.
Consider the acquisition of generators and backup power for major operating facilities Capital
and airconditioning
Assess insurance Risks e.g. bushfire, storms, sea level rise, properties
None
Follow up with the Local Government Insurance Services to determine the specific
Climate Change aspects of the City‟s insurance policy/s
Check drainage infrastructure and network to ensure there are no exceedances of
drainage capacity (and localised flooding) due to more intense rainfall. This includes
modelling and considering a reduction in drainage capacity due to sea level rise and
storm surge especially for drainage systems near the ocean.
Develop a policy to include energy efficiency guidelines in tenders for new Council
buildings, appliances and equipment & develop a sustainable purchasing policy.
Consider the acquisition of generators and backup power for major operating facilities
and airconditioning
None
Ongoing
$500
Capital
- 36 -
Jan 2013
Brett Ashby (Manager Strategic
Planning & Environment)
March 2013
Gary Rogers (Capital Work s)
end 2012
Capital Works
Gary Rogers (Capital Work s)
mid 2013
Financial
Services
Financial
Services
Engineering
Services
Allan Moles (Manager Financial
Services)
Allan Moles (Manager Financial
Services)
Ian Daniels (Manager,
Engineering Services )
Dec 2012
Capital
Projects
Capital Works
Manager Capital Projects
Gary Rogers (Manager Capital
Work s)
Dec 2012
mid 2013
2012
mid 2013
9.3
Year 2: mid 2013 – mid 2014
Implementation Action
Analysis of likely Financial liability arising from Climate Change Risk
Determine impact of Coastal Sea level rise on Parks, Reserves and Wetlands and
Foreshore and assess the Risk.
Determine which roads would be "at risk" with rising sea levels (2030 and 2070) and
determine trigger points for action. Map the contours of the road and transport
infrastructure and determine what roads will be impacted by a 60 metres rise in the
sea level. Develop actions to mitigate or adapt (Possible consultant involvement)
Estimated
Cost
Team plan
None
Financial
Services
None
Parks
Development
None
Engineering
Services
Map the drainage points and determine drainage points would be "at risk" with rising None
sea levels (2030 and 2070). Develop actions to mitigate or adapt.
Consider the possible re-use of grey water and for what applications the water could None
be used for
Identify opportunities from the Industrial re-use of water project : CoR to feed off this
water?
None
Perform a Risk Analysis on damage caused to jetties by the smashing of boats into None
them during storm events. Develop mitigation and adaptation actions.
Communication systems to be tested for robustness given a situation where an
None
evacuation is required with power failure
Develop and implement an energy efficiency policy for decorative lighting, street
$0
lighting, appliances and equipment
Develop a water efficiency policy for Council reserves
$0
Communication systems to be tested for robustness given a situation where an
None
evacuation is required with power failure
Develop and conduct a formal education and awareness CLAP campaign for all staff, $1,000
including a series of workshops for existing staff.
9.4
Responsible
person
Allan Moles (Manager Financial
Services)
James Henson (Manager Park s
Development)
Ian Daniels (Manager
Engineering Services)
Timeframe
end 2013
2013
end 2013
Engineering
Services
Strategic
Planning &
Environment
Strategic
Planning &
Environment
Capital Works
Ian Daniels (Manager
Engineering Services)
Brett Ashby (Manager Strategic
Planning & Environment)
end 2013
Information
Systems
Strategic
Planning and
Environment
Parks Services
Information
Systems
Strategic
Planning and
Environment
Fiona Lambrick (Manager
2013
Information Systems)
Manager Strategic Planning and June 2013
Environment
2013
Brett Ashby (Manager Strategic
Planning & Environment)
2013
Gary Rogers (Capital Work s)
2013
Manager Parks Services
June 2013
Fiona Lambrick (Manager
2013
Information Systems)
Manager Strategic Planning and 2013
Environment
Year 3: 2014/2015
Estimated
Cost
Team plan
None
Economic
Development
Track actual and potential impact of Climate Change on tourism. Consider
None
Economic
alternatives with the planning and design of events
Development
Climate change to be given consideration with the development of the New Town
None
Strategic
Planning Scheme
Planning &
Environment
Track the historic rise in sea levels as per the Dept of Transport markers and plan for None
Engineering
the building of sea walls where it would be required
Services
Determine which parks, plants and animals would be "at risk" with less rainfall and
None
Parks
higher temperatures (2030 and 2070)
Development
Consider backup power for community evacuation facilities
Capital
Capital Works
Plan for the displacement of people and make facilities available. (FISA responsible None
Community
for the relocation of the people and DCP to operate the facilities eg, catering)
Safety
Responsible
person
Cadell Buss (Manager Cadell
Buss)
Cadell Buss (Manager Cadell
Buss)
Brett Ashby (Manager Strategic
Planning & Environment)
Ian Daniels (Manager
Engineering Services)
James Henson (Manager Park s
Development)
Gary Rogers (Capital Work s)
Genevieve Rowles (Manager
Community Safety)
2015
Make available a processing facility for the processing of claims and requests
None
Community
Safety
Genevieve Rowles (Manager
Community Safety)
2014
Develop City of Rockingham Business Continuity Plan
Uncertain Community
Safety
Genevieve Rowles (Manager
Community Safety)
2014
Implementation Action
Consider Diversification of attractions to Rockingham
- 37 -
Timeframe
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
10. References
10.1
10.2
10.3
10.4
10.5
10.6
10.7
10.8
10.9
10.10
10.11
10.12
10.13
10.14
10.15
10.16
10.17
10.18
10.19
10.20
10.21
10.22
10.23
10.24
NSW Coastal Planning Guideline: Adapting to Sea Level Rise
http://www.planning.nsw.gov.au/PlansforAction/Coastalprotection/SeaLevelRisePolicy/tabid/1
77/Default.aspx
Flood Risk Management Guide – Incorporating Sea Level rise Benchmarks in Flood
Assessment
http://www.environment.nsw.gov.au/resources/water/coasts/10759FloodRiskManGde.pdf
Adapting to Climate Change in Australia – An Australian Government Position Paper
http://www.climatechange.gov.au/government/adapt/~/media/publications/adaptation/190210dcc-positionpaper.pdf
Australian Green Infrastructure Council (AGIC) Guidelines For Climate Change Adaptation
http://www.agic.net.au/agic_climate_change_adaptation_guideline_for_infrastructure_novemb
er_2010.pdf
Priorities for Biodiversity Adaptation to Climate Change
http://www.environment.nsw.gov.au/resources/biodiversity/10771prioritiesbioadaptcc.pdf
Climate Change Risks to Coastal Buildings and Infrastructure
http://www.climatechange.gov.au/~/media/publications/coastline/riskscoastalbuildings.pdf
Impacts of climate change
http://www.climatechange.gov.au/en/climate-change/impacts.aspx
Reports, publications and links
http://www.environment.nsw.gov.au/climatechange/reports.htm
WALGA Climate Change Management Toolkit
http://www.walgaclimatechange.com.au/trends-and-scenarios.htm
Climate Change Impacts & Risk Management - A Guide for Business and Government.
Australian Greenhouse Office, in the Department of the Environment and Heritage 2006.
Climate Change Risk Assessment: Bellingen Shire Council. 2010
Mandurah Coastal Zone Climate Change Risk Assessment and Adaptation Plan 2009
http://www.mandurah.wa.gov.au/C5F1222A-4103-4158-A230A5F9DB406767/FinalDownload/DownloadId96BF00980CF4532D322507EE844D4704/C5F1222A-4103-4158-A230A5F9DB406767/HBItem_79614.PDF
WA beaches, parks, to „disappear‟ by 2100
http://www.watoday.com.au/environment/climate-change/wa-beaches-parks-to-disappear-by2100-20110523-1f0ks.html#ixzz1W78T2UV5
Getting into hot water – global warming and rising sea levels
http://www.science.org.au/nova/082/082key.htm
Climate Change Risk Assessment
http://www.ipswich.qld.gov.au/documents/environment/climate_change_risk_assessment.pdf
Health impacts of climate change: Adaptation strategies for Western Australia
http://www.public.health.wa.gov.au/cproot/1510/2/Health_Impacts_of_Climate_Change.pdf
Health impact assessment What is health impact assessment?
http://www.public.health.wa.gov.au/3/1425/2/health_impact_assessment.pm
Climate change and health
http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs266/en/index.html
Climate Change Risks to Australia‟s Coast A FIRST PASS NATIONAL ASSESSMENT
http://www.climatechange.gov.au/40E61CE9-D5FB-41DF-832800711A39FFBE/FinalDownload/DownloadId3F83499C9F160BF3FDD2CDDA20B714C1/40E61CE9-D5FB-41DF-832800711A39FFBE/~/media/publications/coastline/cc-risks-full-report.pdf
Marine Climate Change in Australia / Impacts and Adaption Responses
www.oceanclimatechange.org.au
Carbon dioxide, the ocean and climate change
http://www.csiro.au/resources/ClimateChangeCO2inOceans.html
Threats to the Reef
http://www.fantasea.com.au/page/fantaseafoundation/threatstoreefs/index.html
Acid test for the seas
http://www.science.org.au/nova/106/106print.htm
Ocean Acidification The other CO2 challenge
www.oceanacidification.net/docs/OAA_Factsheet.pdf
- 38 -
10.25
10.26
10.27
10.28
10.29
10.30
10.31
10.32
10.33
10.34
10.35
10.36
10.37
10.38
10.39
10.40
10.41
10.42
10.43
10.44
10.45
10.46
Water resources
http://www.climatechange.gov.au/climate-change/impacts/water-resources.aspx
England. P. March 2007. Climate Change: What are local governments Liable for?. Urban
Research Program. Issues Paper 6.
Climate change and its impacts on Australia‟s cultural heritage
http://australia.icomos.org/wp-content/uploads/Climate-change-and-its-impacts-onAustraliascultural-heritage.pdf
Case studies to support a „First Pass‟ National Climate Change Coastal Vulnerability
Assessment
http://www.ruralfutures.une.edu.au/projects/3.php?nav=Environmental%20Impacts%20of%20
Change&page=130
Extreme weather
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extreme_weather
Effects of global warming on Australia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_global_warming_on_Australia
Extreme Events
http://epa.gov/climatechange/effects/extreme.html
Climate Change
http://www.gorcc.com.au/climate-change/187/
Impact of Global warming on biodiversity
http://www.science.org.au/nova/091/091key.htm
Impacts of Climate Change: Western Australia
http://www.climatechange.gov.au/climate-change/impacts/national-impacts/wa-impacts.aspx
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007 (AR4)
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_and_data_reports.shtml
Climate Change Risk Assessment and Adaptation Framework. Project Brief prepared by
Coastal Zone Management. September 2010.
Developing Flexible Adaptation Pathways for the Peron Naturaliste Coastal Region of
Western Australian
http://www.climatechange.gov.au/government/initiatives/australias-coasts-and-climatechange/adapting/coastal-adaptation-decisionpathways/~/media/publications/adaptation/List%20of%20successful%20projects%201%20Jul
y%202011.pdf
Minutes from Cockburn Sound Alliance Meeting with Jo Mummery, Federal Department of
Climate Change & Energy Efficiency – Adaptation Strategies Branch
Venus bay Observation project – Bruun Rule.
http://vboping.blogspot.com/2008/12/popular-theory.html
WESTERN AUSTRALIAN PLANNING COMMISSION STATEMENT OF PLANNING POLICY
No. 2.6 - STATE COASTAL PLANNING POLICY
http://www.planning.wa.gov.au/dop_pub_pdf/spp_2_7.pdf
Climate Change 2007 Synthesis report – IPCC
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_synth
esis_report.htm
Adapting to Climate Change – A Queensland Local Government Guide – June 2007
http://www.lgaq.asn.au/C5F1222A-4103-4158-A230A5F9DB406767/FinalDownload/DownloadId36DD5D645BADAEFFEB5D96C60A6D5679/C5F1222A-4103-4158-A230A5F9DB406767/c/document_library/get_file?uuid=6ffc2ff843f1884e98b6ef7d235bc30b&grou
pId=10136
McDonald. J. 2007. A risky climate for decision-making: the liability of development
authorities for climate change impacts. 24 EPLJ 405
IPCC SPECIAL REPORT EMISSIONS SCENARIOS
http://www.ipcc.ch/DE007AEE-F942-4D6F-A13C5B31522B8B1C/FinalDownload/DownloadId57DB7D7427110BC9A8479363C7FE6452/DE007AEE-F942-4D6F-A13C5B31522B8B1C/pdf/special-reports/spm/sres-en.pdf
www.griffith.edu.au/centre/urp/urp_publications/Issues_Papers/URP_IP6_ENGLAND_Climate
_LocGovt_final.pdf
Climate Change Risks to Australia‟s Coast
- 39 -
10.47
10.48
10.49
_
10.50
10.51
10.52
10.53
10.54
10.55
10.56
10.57
10.58
10.59
10.60
http://www.climatechange.gov.au/40E61CE9-D5FB-41DF-832800711A39FFBE/FinalDownload/DownloadIdAA0DAA246BDEC16C4DF9F2DF9FE1FC1B/40E61CE9-D5FB-41DF-832800711A39FFBE/~/media/publications/coastline/cc-risks-full-report.pdf
City of Belmont – Local Climate Change Adaption Action Plan (2010)
http://www.belmont.wa.gov.au/Environment/Documents/Local%20Climate%20Change%20Ad
aptation%20Action%20Plan.pdf
Coastal Councils – Climate Change Adaption Plan (Hunter and Central Coast Regional
Environmental Management Strategy)
http://www.hccrems.com.au/hccrems/media/RESOURCES/Climate%20Change/CoastalCouncils-Adaptation-Plan.pdf
Corporate Implications for legal liability with regards to Climate change
www.griffith.edu.au/centre/urp/urp_publications/Issues_Papers/URP_IP6_ENGLAND_Climate
LocGovt_final.pdf
Health impacts of Climate Change, Adaptation Strategies for Western Australia, Dept. of
Health, 2008.
http://www.public.health.wa.gov.au/cproot/1510/2/Health_Impacts_of_Climate_Change.pdf
Climate change, water demand and water availability scenarios to 2030, Dept. of Water,
Government of Western Australia, September 2009
http://www.water.wa.gov.au/PublicationStore/first/88706.pdf
Risks from a rapidly changing climate
http://www.climatechange.gov.au/publications/science/~/media/publications/science/ccfaster_
change_2b.pdf
Climate Change in Australia
http://climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au
Climate Change Science
http://www.dec.wa.gov.au/content/view/5172/2189/1/3/
Bicknell, C. Sea Level Change in Western Australia. Application to Coastal Planning. 2010
http://www.planning.wa.gov.au/dop_pub_pdf/sea_level_change_in_wa_rev0_final.pdf
Australian climate variability and change – Time series graphs
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/change/timeseries.cgi
Historic Global trends in sea level Rise vs. projections (CSIRO);
http://www.cmar.csiro.au/sealevel/sl_proj_obs_vs_proj.html
England. P. 2008. Heating up: Climate change law and the evolving responsibilities of local
government. 13 LGLJ 209
SMRC Climate Change Risk Management and Adaptation Action plan for the South
Metropolitan Councils, September 2009
Rahmstorf, S. 2007. www.sciencemag.org SCIENCE VOL 315 19 JANUARY 2007
- 40 -
Appendix 1: The Bruun Rule
The most commonly applied explanation for erosion of sandy shores due to sea level rise is know as
58
the Bruun Rule . It is a mathematical formula that relates the likely erosion to the amount of sea
level rise, the width of the beach and the freeboard relative to still water level. The beach profile is
supposed to be translated up and landward, with the eroded sediments deposited on the lower part of
the profile. Putting this in the simplest terms the beach profile is predicted to move landwards and
upwards with the rise in mean sea level.
Figure A.1:
The Bruun Rule
39
The Bruun mathematical formula commonly predicts erosion encroachment of the coast (R) to be 50100 times the magnitude of (S) the sea level rise.
Taking this rule into account during the Climate Change Risk analysis process will aid in the
identification of all relevant issues that the City needs to take note of. The group did take note of the
fact that the Bruun rule is questionable for some areas of the CoR coastline due to the sandstone
composition in these areas.
- 41 -
Appendix 2: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Scenarios44
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has developed a set of Climate Change
scenarios to assist organisations with their Strategic Planning around Climate Change and its
impacts. The Theme of the scenarios is future emissions, and the impact this would have on different
key variables.
In simple terms, the four storylines combine two sets of divergent tendencies: one set varying
between strong economic values and strong environmental values, the other set between increasing
globalization and increasing regionalization:
A1
The A1 storyline and scenario family describes a future world of very rapid economic growth, global
population that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter, and the rapid introduction of new and
more efficient technologies. Major underlying themes are convergence among regions, capacity
building, and increased cultural and social interactions, with a substantial reduction in regional
differences in per capita income. The A1 scenario family develops into three groups that describe
alternative directions of technological change in the energy system. The three A1 groups are
distinguished by their technological emphasis:
 fossil intensive (A1FI);
 non-fossil energy sources (A1T); and
 or a balance across all sources (A1B).
A2
The A2 storyline and scenario family describes a very heterogeneous world. The underlying theme is
self-reliance and preservation of local identities. Fertility patterns across regions converge very
slowly, which results in continuously increasing global population. Economic development is primarily
regionally oriented and per capita economic growth and technological change is more fragmented and
slower than in other storylines.
B1
The B1 storyline and scenario family describes a convergent world with the same global population
that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter, as in the A1 storyline, but with rapid changes in
economic structures toward a service and information economy, with reductions in material intensity,
and the introduction of clean and resource-efficient technologies. The emphasis is on global solutions
to economic, social, and environmental sustainability, including improved equity, but without additional
climate initiatives.
B2
The B2 storyline and scenario family describes a world in which the emphasis is on local solutions to
economic, social, and environmental sustainability. It is a world with continuously increasing global
population at a rate lower than A2, intermediate levels of economic development, and less rapid and
more diverse technological change than in the B1 and A1 storylines. While the scenario is also
oriented toward environmental protection and social equity, it focuses on local and regional levels.
- 42 -
Figure A.2:
Projected global average surface warming and sea level rise per scenario at the end of
35
the 21st century (IPCC);
Figure A.3:
Examples of impacts associated with global average temperature change;
35
(Impacts will vary by extent of adaptation, rate of temperature change and socio-economic pathway)
- 43 -
Appendix 3: Risk Analysis Framework and Risk Analysis process
The following framework was applied with the development of a Climate Change Response Strategy for
the City of Rockingham
The purpose of the Climate Change Risk Analysis Framework was to address risks for the City of
Rockingham with regards to Climate Change, in particular within the context of each of the 16
Aspirations that have been put out in the Community Plan:
The Risk Management Framework AS/NZS ISO 31000:2009 was used as the Risk Management
Framework for the Climate Change Response Study and will also be used as the Framework for the
whole of the City of Rockingham.
Figure A.4:
Climate Change Response Plan: Risk Analysis Framework
Climate Change Response Plan:
Risk Analysis Framework
Council Mandate
& Commitment
Pilot Study:
Climate Change
Risk Analysis
Design Framework for
Managing Risk
Continual improvement
of the Framework
Implement Risk
Management for CoR
Monitor and Review
Framework
- 44 -
Figure A.5:
Climate Change Response Plan Risk Analysis Process
Determine the Gap:
what we know vs.
what we need to know
Initial Risk
Analysis Workshop
Identify
Knowledge Gaps
Peron Naturalist
Group



Understand the context
of Climate Change (CC)
Identify Key Driving
Forces of Climate Change
5. Treat 4. Evaluate
the Risks the Risks
1. Establish the Context
Cockburn Sound
Alliance
3. Analyse the Risks
Literature Research,
Expert inputs, Consultant
Studies & Reports
2. Identify the Risks
Climate Change Response Strategy:
Risk Analysis Process
Identify Key Elements of
CoR that would be
subject to CC Risk
Treat & Act on
initial Risks
Identify the Risks
for each identified
Key Element
Review controls already
in place to deal with
each Risk
Assess Consequence of
the Risk given
current controls
Assess Likelihood of the
Risk leading to the
consequences identified
Prioritise Risks based
on Consequence
& Likelihood
Identify & Implement
Actions
Track
Implementation
All identified actions were included in the relevant Team plans or the Asset management Plan
or the Infrastructure Plan (where applicable);
Steering Group meetings were held regularly where the group gave feedback to the Executive
Management Team (EMT) on progress made and proposals were made to the EMT with
regards to next steps in the process;
o One of the key Steering Group meetings involved the decision if Consultant
involvement would be required or not. The Steering group felt that the focus group
had done a good job and would not need any consultant involved to enhance
development of the document. A peer Review was suggested instead, which
involved two leading consultants reviewing the Draft Climate Change Response Plan
developed by the Focus group and identifying any areas that would require further
investigation or update;
The peer review feedback on the Draft Climate Change Response Plan was included and the
Final Climate Change Response Plan (this document) was submitted to the EMT for inputs
and then to Council for endorsement.
- 45 -
A3.1
Defining the Risk Criteria for the City of Rockingham
During the analysis and prioritisation of the identified Risks as much accuracy was applied as
possible. A set of criteria was used for this purpose. The following Consequence and Likelihood
scales have been developed for the evaluation of the City of Rockingham Climate Change Risks.
Figure A.6:
Consequence Criteria
Ecology
Environment
Community
Operations
Financial
1 – Insignificant
Little or no impact to
ecosystems
Little or no impact
Little or no impact
Little or no impact
< $ 10 000
2 – Minor
Possible small change in Minor damage. Recovery Minor impact. Mostly
abundance of plant &
in short timeframe
reversible
animal species
Some delay in operations $ 10 000 - $ 100,000
3 – Moderate
Definite change in
species abundance and
composition
Damage to the
environment requires
targeted cleanup
Moderate impact
Significant delays to
major deliverables
$ 100,000 - $ 1 mill
4 - Major
Major change in species
abundance and
composition
Significant damage
requiring resources to
address
Major impact
Non-achievement on
major deliverables
$ 1 mill - $ 5 mill
5 - Catastrophic
Total disruption of
sensitive ecosystems
Major damage requiring
significant resources
Extreme impact with long Non-achievement on Key > $ 5 mill
term effects
Strategic Objectives
Table A.7:
Likelihood Criteria
Recurring Risk
Once-off Event
A – Almost Certain
Several times a year
> 60% chance of it
happening
B – Likely
Once a year
50% - 60% chance of it
happening
C – Possible
Once in 10 years
20% - 50% chance of it
happening
D - Unlikely
Once in 50 years
5% - 20% chance of it
happening
E – Rare
Once in 100 years
< 5% chance of it
happening
- 46 -
A3.2
Risk Evaluation
The following Table can be used to prioritise risks based on a likelihood and consequence scale.
Figure A.8:
Risk Evaluation Table
Likelihood
Consequences
Insignificant
Medium
Minor
Medium
Moderate
High
Major
Extreme
Catastrophic
Extreme
Likely
Low
Medium
High
High
Extreme
Possible
Low
Medium
Medium
High
High
Unlikely
Low
Low
Medium
Medium
Medium
Rare
Low
Low
Low
Low
Medium
Almost Certain
EXTREME priority risks demand urgent attention at the most senior level and cannot be simply
accepted as part of routine operations. Actions required to treat an extreme priority risk are likely to
be beyond the standard operational procedures and require additional human and / or financial
resources.
HIGH priority risks are the most severe that can be accepted as part of routine operations, but they
will be the responsibility of the most senior operational management. Senior management will be
responsible for ensuring that adaptation actions towards management of the risk are implemented.
MEDIUM priority risks can be expected to form part of routine operations but they will be explicitly
assigned to relevant managers for action and maintained under review.
LOW priority risks will be maintained under review but it is expected that existing controls will be
sufficient.
- 47 -
Appendix 4
Perth region coastal climate change scenarios (CZM, 2010)
Key
Variable
Code
Perth Regional Coastal Scenario
Comment
Mean Sea
Level
K1
Projected range of sea level rise (m)
relative to 1990 baseline: The IPCC
AR4 provides maximum and minimum
projections for the decade 2090-2099
and for the potential dynamic response
of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice
Sheets but does not provide time
series for projections of sea level rise
st
throughout the 21 Century. Therefore,
Hunter (in press) analyzed the AR4
outputs in combination with the TAR
1
outputs to establish time series data .
This information has been applied to
establish SLR predictions for inclusion
in the current assessment. Values
given to 2 decimal places.
Scenario Percentile 2030 2070
A1F1
50
0.14 0.33m
A1F1
95
0.15 0.47m
Based on tide data analysis
(Mitchell et al., 1999) Fremantle
appears to be tracking to global
average sea-level rise. Importantly,
the decadal scale changes driven
by climate variability are markedly
different from global averages – by
definition. This is important
because these shorter-term
fluctuations are likely to drive
immediate changes.
Ocean
Currents
and
Temperature
K2
Median values of sea surface
temperature for the A1FI scenario
(50%) (fig 5.49, CSIRO 2007): 0.6 to
1.0 (2030) and 2.0 to 2.5 (2070)
It is not clear at present, how
potential climate-change driven
changes to SSTs will affect the
Leeuwin Current. As such, this has
implications for SSTs immediately
offshore of Perth, with implications
for foreshore vulnerability (direct
sea-level impact) and also primary
productivity with potential
implications for sediment supply.
Wind Climate
K3
These scenarios suggest an overall
very small reduction in mean annual
wind speed, with disproportionate
seasonal changes – a reduction in
winter/spring, and increase in
summer/autumn.
Perth regional winds are highly
event driven and influenced by local
land sea-breeze cells (Pattiaratchi
et al., 1996). Mean wind
predictions will not represent these
processes.
Extreme winter wind projections are
expected to reduce in a similar
proportion to mean winter wind
speeds. It is less certain whether
extreme summer winds will, or are
likely to, increase corresponding to
mean summer winds.
1
See http://www.cmar.csiro.au/sealevel/sl_proj_21st.html#21C_ts
- 48 -
Key
Variable
Code
Perth Regional Coastal Scenario
Comment
Wave
Climate
K4
No recent scenarios of the implications
of climate change on local or swelldriven waves. Inferring wave climate
from the wind climate projections (local
wind wave component only) suggests a
lower proportion of local wind-waves.
Climate change scenarios move the
swell-wave generation zone further
south. At present the mean sea-wave
is 2.5 m off the SW Capes and 1.5m off
Shark Bay. Assuming that this NorthSouth gradient of swell-wave energy is
maintained in the future, it may be
inferred that mean swell waves will
decrease, and that greater decreases
will occur under the higher emission
scenarios.
These are initial interpretations
only. The recent analysis of Hemer
et al (2008) analysed historical
wave climates for all Australian
waters. This study is expected to
form the basis of future studies that
link measured historic wave climate
variability with climate change
models.
Rainfall /
Runoff
K5
See Table 1
Runoff changes:
2030 A1FI (%): Annual; -15 to -30
2070 A1FI (%): Annual, -57
While changes in the frequency of
occurrence of high intensity
precipitation events are possible,
the current understanding of
climate change in SW WA
precludes any conclusions being
drawn in this regard (Berti et al,
2004, Pearcey, Department of
Water, pers comm., Nov 2008).
The work of the Department of
Water with CSIRO (Berti et al,
2004), including work soon to be
published on the Serpentine
catchment (Pearcey, pers comm.)
has developed a „rule of thumb‟ of a
three times multiplier of mean
annual rainfall to the resulting
changes in annual runoff. These
multipliers have been applied here.
Air
Temperature
K6
See Table 1
Increases are possible in the
frequency of occurrence of
extremely high temperatures with
reductions in the frequency of very
low temperatures.
Extreme
Water Levels
K7
Analysis of historic extreme water levels at Fremantle show that there is a
direct relationship between extreme event levels and mean sea-level
changes. A recent analysis of potential extreme water levels in the PeelHarvey system (M. P. Rogers & Associates, 2008) concluded that “Limited
information exists as to the change in frequency and intensity of extreme sea
level events due to climate change, so the probability of the 1 in 100 year
event occurring in 2008 is assumed to be the same as it occurring in 2100”.
This assumption was also maintained in the SRT (2010) report Climate
Change Risk Assessment Project, and therefore, was considered valid for the
current assessment.
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