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6@ @NODH<O@ OC@ HJ?@G <O OC@ N@>OJM<G ?DBDO
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OC@ >JPIOMT G@Q@G <I? NJ R@ <?EPNO <GG NO<I?<M? @MMJMN AJM >GPNO@MDIB =T @SKJMODIB >JPIOMT
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M@NK@>ODQ@GT
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@NODH<OJM C<N <O G@<NO OCM@@ ?@NDM<=G@ KMJK@MOD@N OC<O H<F@ DO K<MOD>PG<MGT PN@APG DI OCDN >JIO@SO %DMNO
DO C<N D?@IOD><G MNO JM?@M >JI?DODJIN OJ OCJN@ J=O<DI@? =T MPIIDIB R@DBCO@? IJIGDI@<M G@<NO NLP<M@N
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><I =@ DIO@MKM@O@? <N @G<NOD>DOD@N =PO OC@ HJ?@G ?J@N IJO NPAA@M AMJH OC@ PNP<G GDHDO<ODJI JA GJBGJB
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PNP<G 2<IOJN 2DGQ< <I? 3@IM@TMJ @SKGJDO OCDN KMJK@MOT <N < H@<IN JA ?@<GDIB RDOC U@MJ OM<?@
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?DNOMD=PODJI NJ GJIB <N OC@ >JI?DODJI<G H@<I API>ODJI DN >JMM@>OGT NK@>D@? &JPMD@MJPS @O <G 6JJG?MD?B@ .OC@M >JPIO ?<O< HJ?@GN NP>C <N OC@ I@B<ODQ@ =DIJHD<G *GDIB@M <I? +@?@MH<I
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NOMJIB <NNPHKODJI <N OJ OC@ ?DNOMD=PODJI JA >JPIOMT JM N@>OJMNK@>D> PIJ=N@MQ@? C@O@MJB@I@DOT
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*@@ 2DHDG<MGT JPM I?DIB OC<O GJR@M ?JH@NOD> H<MF@O @IOMT >JNON <M@ <NNJ>D<O@? RDOC
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I@B<ODQ@ <I? NO<ODNOD><GGT NDBID><IO >J@A>D@IO JI H<MF@O @IOMT >JNON DI OC@ MNO NO<B@ JA < N<HKG@
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"JI?DODJI<G JI OC@ PN@ JA <KKMJKMD<O@ DINOMPH@ION DI>GPNDJI JA OC@ MNO NO<B@ M@ND?P<GN M@HJQ@N <IT
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DI?D><O@N OC<O OC@M@ DN < N@MDJPN @I?JB@I@DOT KMJ=G@H
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ORDI >JI?DODJIN AJM DINOMPH@IO Q<GD?DOT NOMJIB >JMM@G<ODJI RDOC OC@ KJO@IOD<GGT @I?JB@IJPN OM<?@
<I? @IOMT >JNON =PO JMOCJBJI<GDOT OJ >PMM@IO @SKJMO ?DQ@MND><ODJI .PM NOM<O@BT @SKGJDON Q<MD<ODJI
DI B@JBM<KCT <I? >JGJID<G CDNOJMT OJ D?@IODAT @SJB@IJPN HJQ@H@ION DI OC@ Q<MD<=G@N JA DIO@M@NO 3C@
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DINODOPODJIN #E<IFJQ @O <G 3CPN R@ @SK@>O =JOC DINOMPH@ION OJ =@ >JMM@G<O@? RDOC OC@
>PMM@IOGT J=N@MQ@? G@Q@GN JA OM<?@ <I? @IOMT >JNON RCDG@ =@DIB @SJB@IJPN OJ >PMM@IO @SKJMO ?DQ@MND
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NDM<=G@ DI APOPM@ RJMF OJ OMT <I? D?@IODAT NOMJIB@M DINOMPH@ION 3CDN DN K<MOD>PG<MGT OMP@ DI OC@ ><N@
JA @SKJMO >JNON AJM RCD>C OC@ %O@NO JIGT M@E@>ON OC@ IPGG CTKJOC@NDN <O OC@ G@Q@G -JI@OC@G@NN
(I A<>O #E<IFJQ @O <G PN@ G@B<G JMDBDI ?PHHD@N IJO >JGJIDU<ODJI <N DINOMPH@ION AJM H<MF@O @IOMT >JNON
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NJH@ JA OC@H <M@ @NODH<O@? R@ J=N@MQ@ OC<O OC@ @G<NOD>DOD@N JA @SKJMO ?DQ@MND><ODJI RDOC M@NK@>O
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8000
6000
6000
6000
lines
4000
4000
lines
4000
lines
2000
2000
2000
0
0
0
0 5.000e+11
1.000e+12
1.500e+12
2.000e+12
gdp
0
8000
8000
6000
6000
4000
lines
4000
lines
2000
2000
0
10000 20000
gdppc
30000
0
5
10
15
entry cost
20
0
0
5000 10000 15000 20000
distance
0
1000 2000 3000 4000
export cost
3C@ T<SDN JA @<>C KGJO DN GDI@N <I? OC@ S<SDN DN <N H<MF@? $IOMT >JNO DN @SKM@NN@? DI K@M>@IO K@M
><KDO< &-( O@MHN <I? <GG JOC@M DI?@K@I?@IO Q<MD<=G@N <M@ DI NDHKG@ G@Q@GN
GG M@NPGON R@M@ J=O<DI@? =T +JR@NN M@BM@NNDJI RDOC =<I?RD?OC
,*74( ,/7.$6,10 4(57.65 (:24(55(' $5 $2241:,/$6( (.$56,&,6,(5
3
2
1
0
Elasticity
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
(dnxh/(dthr-1))((thr-1)/nxh)
(dnxh/dfdh)(fdh/nxh)
(dnxr/(dthr-1))((thr-1)/nxr)
(dnxh/(dthr-1))((thr-1)/nxh),dthr=dtrh
(dnxh/dfxh)(fxh/nxh)
2DHPG<ODJIN R@M@ >JI?P>O@? <N N@O JPO DI OC@ H<DI O@SO %PGG M@NPGON DI>GP?DIB ,<KG@ RJMFNC@@ON
<M@
<Q<DG<=G@ JI M@LP@NO
(I OC@ O@MHDIJGJBT JA OC@ H<DI O@SO OC@ NJGD? GDI@ @LP<O@N OJ <I DI>M@<N@ DI DHKJMONK@>D> >JNON OC@
?JOO@? <I? ?<NC@? GDI@N M@A@M OJ DI>M@<N@N DI @SKJMONK@>D> >JNON OC@ >MJNN@? GDI@ DN <I DI>M@<N@ DI
NTHH@OMD> OM<?@ >JNON <I? OC@ ?<NC@??JOO@? GDI@ DN <I DI>M@<N@ DI OC@ >JNON JA ?JH@NOD> H<MF@O @IOMT