Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 90 (2002) 139–153 The role of livestock for sustainability in mixed farming: criteria and scenario studies under varying resource allocation J.B. Schiere a , M.N.M. Ibrahim b,∗ , H. van Keulen c a Animal Production Systems Group, Wageningen Institute of Animal Sciences (WIAS), Wageningen Agricultural University, P.O. Box 338, 6700 AH Wageningen, The Netherlands b Department of Animal Science, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Peradeniya, Peradeniya, Sri Lanka c Research Institute for Agrobiology and Soil Fertility (AB-DLO), P.O. Box 14, 6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands Received 8 November 1999; received in revised form 30 January 2001; accepted 30 January 2001 Abstract Cropping, when possible, tends to become more important than animal production because, in general, it can feed more people per area unit in terms of calories and protein. In such systems, the role of wasteland grazing as a source of energy for agriculture through animals for traction and dung is often taken over by the use of resources from fossil reserves. This changing role of animals in the sustainability of agriculture is addressed in this paper to discuss options and constraints for animal production in newly developing farming systems. Based on a brief literature review, this paper discusses how and in which way ruminant livestock has played or can continue to play a role in (newly developing forms of) sustainable agriculture. The role of livestock in different modes of agriculture ranging from expanded agriculture (EXPAGR), and high external inputs agriculture (HEIA) to low external inputs agriculture (LEIA), and new conservation agriculture (NCA) are elaborated. It is argued that even when fossil reserves based external inputs such as oil and fertilisers become more widely used, they should still be used with care to save money and finite resources as well as to avoid problems of waste disposal. However, in conditions with limited access to resources, it continues to be difficult to obtain inputs from fossil reserves. Under these conditions, the major options to increase system sustainability by reducing pollution problems and dependency on external resources are (a) to adjust ways and objectives of production systems to the access to resources, and (b) to achieve increased use and recycling of resources within the system itself. Definitions for sustainability are given and translated into four criteria, i.e. food production and degree of self-sufficiency in the short term based on energy, protein, clothing, shelter, etc.; food production and degree of self-sufficiency in the long term expressed in the form of soil organic matter (SOM) content; reduced dependence of external inputs (=nitrogen use); and aspects of resilience, stability and equity in crop–livestock systems. The results of scenario studies concerning use of grass and legume leys for livestock production illustrate options and trade-offs for different crop–livestock combinations in terms of these criteria for sustainability. © 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. Keywords: Crop–livestock systems; Sustainability; Food production; Resource fluxes 1. Introduction ∗ Corresponding author. Tel.: +94-8-387180; fax: +94-8-388041. E-mail address: [email protected] (M.N.M. Ibrahim). Traditionally, animals and particularly ruminants were an asset to society by converting biomass from vast grazing areas into products useful for humans, e.g. dung, draught, milk, meat and security. However, 0167-8809/02/$ – see front matter © 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. PII: S 0 1 6 7 - 8 8 0 9 ( 0 1 ) 0 0 1 7 6 - 1 140 J.B. Schiere et al. / Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 90 (2002) 139–153 growing human populations cause increased and shifting demands for food and other products. This results in the conversion of natural forests and grazing land into arable land for crop and fodder production, thus leading to quantitative and qualitative changes in biomass availability for human food and livestock feed (Winrock, 1978). Where cropping is possible, it can feed more people in terms of calories and protein than what is possible with animal production. This is shown in Table 1 (Spedding, 1979) with data for specific conditions that reflect the general principle. However, there are soils and climates where cropping is not very successful or very risky such as on the wet peat soils in Western Europe, in high mountain ranges or in arid regions (Fig. 1). Apart from their inferior caloric output, compared to crops, animals are also associated with deforestation and erosion (Durning and Brough, 1991). However, historically, deforestation tended to start in response to the requirement for timber for fuel and construction (Ponting, 1991). Forest was cultivated with crops and grassland for food production through shifting cultivation, permanent cropping or simply as a method of occupying land (Ruthenberg, 1980; Table 1 Approximate number of people fed per hectare of land in areas where cropping is possible (adapted from Spedding, 1979) Protein Energy Crops Maize (Zea mays) Wheat (Triticum aestivum) Rice (Oryza sativa) Potatoes (Solanum tuberosum) 5.2 6.3 7.0 9.5 10.4 8.4 14.0 16.5 Livestock Chicken meat Lamb meat Beef Pork Milk 2.5 1.0 1.0 1.4 3.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 2.5 Poelhekke, 1984; Hecht, 1993). In the present day, the strong argument against keeping of livestock is that the requirement for cropland is increasing through expansion of grain-based beef, dairy and poultry production in the USA, Western Europe, in peri-urban dairies of developing countries, and recently in the Pacific Rim and China (Winrock, 1978). Combined with changing human food patterns, this has increased the demand Fig. 1. Carrying capacity in terms of human population based on crop and animal production in areas where cropping is possible (adapted from Spedding, 1979). J.B. Schiere et al. / Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 90 (2002) 139–153 for crop land relative to grazing land (Alexandratos, 1988). As a result, even marginal grazing areas are converted into crop land and overgrazing of the remaining areas becomes the rule rather than the exception (Jodha, 1986). Land scarcity starts to occur, even in pastoral areas. This upsets existing ethnic balances, and can result in animosity between pastoralists and arable farmers who peacefully co-existed to mutual benefit in the past (Powell and Waters-Bayer, 1985; Grijseels, 1988). The use of external inputs can increase the carrying capacity of some range-land systems (Breman and De Wit, 1983). However, such external inputs are not available or not affordable to all farmers. Hence, over exploitation (i.e. mining) of land without the use of external inputs tends to be the result (Van Der Pol, 1992). This threatens the sustainability of these systems, which is defined here in simple terms as “the capacity to continue production”. Too liberal use of external inputs, on the other hand, causes waste disposal problems or increased political dependency on external supplies (De Haan et al., 1997; Schiere and van Keulen, 1999). In general, animals are often considered to be the cause for unsustainability in both high and low external input agricultural systems (HEIA and LEIA). In LEIA, animals are blamed for scavenging whatever is left, and in HEIA, the role of animals as waste utilisers has been reverted to a role as polluters and converters of prime resources. Rather than being an asset to sustainability, livestock keeping has become a liability (Durning and Brough, 1991; Kaasschieter et al., 1990; Rifkin, 1992). The objective of this paper is to show that livestock can play a positive role in sustainable systems. The paper reassesses the controversial role of animals in sustainable agriculture based on scenario studies and literature. Specific objectives are (1) to describe a set of historical conditions where livestock has been essential for the sustainability of existing farming systems, particularly in mixed crop–livestock systems, (2) to outline a classification of livestock farming systems that ranges from predominantly animal production via mixed crop–livestock systems to predominantly crops at different ratios of relative access to land, labour and capital and (3) to provide some definitions and criteria for sustainability that can be operationalised in scenario studies. 141 2. Livestock and sustainability of agricultural systems 2.1. Role of livestock Livestock, and particularly ruminants, traditionally graze on natural pasture, forest areas, roadsides, fallow lands, crop re-growth or crop residues such as straws, brans, oilseeds, and other by-products. When abundant feed is available, livestock can be considered a form of wealth, power and security, a perception based on the conversion of solar energy captured in biomass into products valuable for human society. Therefore, not surprisingly, strong linguistic links between the words for cattle and capital exist in languages all over the world (Schiere, 1995). For example, the Spanish ‘ganado’ is related with ‘ganar’, and similar relations exist in African and Asian languages. Indeed, under conditions of abundant biomass, cattle were often a decisive factor in the survival (sustainability) of a system. However, ways and objectives of keeping livestock are changing as a cause and result of changing access to feed (Crotty, 1980; Palthe, 1989; De Leeuw and Rey, 1995; Schiere, 1995; Ifar, 1996). Often, animal production is associated with problems of unsustainability. This may be true in some cases, in others it is definitely not. 2.2. Benefits of livestock Livestock were components of systems with long term sustainability. For example, the keeping of livestock was essential for survival in divergent systems such as those of the pastoralists in Africa, and those on peat soil pastures of the low countries and on mountain ranges unsuitable for cropping. Animals have long been essential in sustaining crop yields in the infield–outfield systems of Western Europe and other parts of the world, where dung and draught from wasteland grazing (outfields) was used for crop cultivation on the infields around the homesteads (Chayanov, 1926; Willerding, 1980; Bieleman, 1987). In a more intricate way, animals helped to sustain crop yields by increasing the rate of nutrient flows in the mixed crop–livestock systems of the Norfolk and the Flemish systems (Slicher van Bath, 1963), or by allowing farmers to include crops that either fix atmospheric nitrogen, release immobilised 142 J.B. Schiere et al. / Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 90 (2002) 139–153 phosphorus, or enhance soil organic matter (SOM, Hoffland, 1991). Grazing by livestock usually follows rather than precedes deforestation and/or cropping. In fact, animals, such as the goat, are one of the last means of survival for large numbers of poor people on bare, exhausted, and/or arid lands. However, in spite of the importance of animals for the poor classes of farmers, the advocates for continued animal production on exhausted soils should acknowledge that livestock can tip the final balance in delicate ecosystems (Schiere and Grasman, 1997). Interestingly, Jodha (1986) notices that in the Nepalese hills, the goat can even be an indicator of unsustainability. The following section provides a conceptual framework to indicate when and where livestock can play a beneficial role in enhancing system sustainability. 3. Conceptual framework to address livestock and system sustainability Age-old systems can become unsustainable under changing conditions, alternatives and different objectives of production may be required for survival of the existing population (Hayami and Ruttan, 1985; Van Der Ploeg and Long, 1994; Schiere and De Wit, 1995). In that context, shortages of food and feed biomass, or even threats to sustainability can be tackled by a variety of methods (Boserup, 1965; Ruthenberg, 1980; Palthe, 1989; Schiere, 1995) as follows: 1. expansion of cultivated land through migration or shortened fallow cycles; 2. adjustment of consumption patterns and/or population growth; 3. increased recycling of scarce resources; 4. reliance on (liberal) use of external inputs; 5. a combination of (1), (2), (3) and/or (4). Based on the above biophysical strategies, it is possible to classify farming systems. The classification presented in Table 2 is based on a matrix in which population density, access to land and inputs change relative to each other. In more common terms, the classification is based on the relative availability of the production factors land, labour and capital (Schiere and De Wit, 1995). 3.1. Matrix to classify crop–livestock systems The vertical columns of the matrix reflect the degree of mixing between animals and crops, from predominantly livestock, via mixed systems to predominantly crops (Table 2). The horizontal rows represent four major modes of agriculture that tend to succeed gathering and hunting. The modes of agriculture are explained as follows. • Expansion agriculture (EXPAGR), where land is abundant, i.e. where shortage of land or local fertility is overcome by migration or expansion into other regions (Ponting, 1991). • Low external input agriculture (LEIA), where shortage of land cannot be overcome by migration. Lack of access to external inputs (capital) implies that only increased use of labour and skills offers a way out. This in turn implies modified practices, where demand is adjusted to resource availability (Schiere and De Wit, 1993). If not managed properly this can result in mining of soils and/or collapse of systems (Van Der Pol, 1992; Schiere and Grasman, 1997). • High external input agriculture (HEIA), based on high fluxes of external resources such as in the green revolution. Basically, in this mode, the demand for output determines use of inputs (Schiere and De Wit, 1993). The use of external resources can reach such high levels that the environment is affected by emissions from the crop and/or animal production systems, ultimately leading to waste/disposal problems, and also over-dependence economically (Kaasschieter et al., 1990; Rerat and Kauchik, 1995; De Haan et al., 1997; De Wit et al., 1997; Schiere and van Keulen, 1999; Van Keulen et al., 1999). • New conservation agriculture (NCA), is a mode of farming where production goals are matched as close as possible to the resource base. This approach represents a mix between HEIA and LEIA, and may be the archetype reasoning behind ecological farming (Altieri, 1991; Kingwell and Pannell, 1987; NRC, 1989; Van Keulen et al., 1999). 3.2. Options and constraints of mixed crop–livestock systems This paper focuses on the options and constraints of increasing the sustainability of mixed systems by J.B. Schiere et al. / Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 90 (2002) 139–153 143 144 J.B. Schiere et al. / Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 90 (2002) 139–153 utilising the animal component. Table 2 addresses both pastoral and pure crop systems, but it also emphasises the mixed crop–livestock system. This was not addressed in the classification of Durning and Brough (1991). The latter argue against pastoral systems with associated overgrazing and against specialised systems with associated waste disposal problems. Unfortunately, they insufficiently explain and explore the advantages of the mixed crop–livestock systems in terms of opportunities for waste recycling and for optimal use of resources available on and between farms. The following section discusses the constraints and options in the design of mixed crop–livestock systems of the NCA mode. Importantly, mixing can occur within and between farms and this implies a high degree of integration of functions rather than mere diversification, where livestock and crops exist side by side without being related to a significant extent. 4. Changing relations between crops and livestock The main relations between crops and livestock in mixed systems are simply depicted in Fig. 2. External resources such as solar energy, inherent soil Fig. 2. A generalised diagram with resource flows in a mixed crop–livestock system. fertility/nutrient deposits and rain are depicted in the central box of the top row. From there, the resources flow to either a short term deposit on the right, representing biomass in forests, roadsides and grazing areas, to long term stocks on the left representing fossil reserves from which “industrial” inputs such as “improved” seeds and fertilisers are also manufactured, or they flow directly to the crop system. The livestock subsystem, on the right “feeds” mainly on short term biomass deposits. The crop sector “feeds” directly on solar energy, inherent soil fertility, on long term deposits and/or indirectly on short term reserves that provide power and nutrients through livestock. The crossed broken lines are included to indicate that livestock can “feed” on inputs of fossil reserves through medicines, steel tools, etc. Livestock can further obtain food from cropping in the form of crop residues, failed crops and fodder production from leys, i.e. cultivated fallow. Feed resources from the cropping sector in mixed systems play an important role, since in NCA they replace waste land grazing from EXPAGR as a source of feed in NCA (Table 2). The boxes “losses” indicate that not all resources are transformed into a form that is directly beneficial to human society (Fig. 2). The relative importance of resource flows between crops and livestock changes as systems move from one row to another in the matrix, or even between columns (Table 2). This is illustrated with a qualitative discussion of the changes in resource flows when mixed crop–livestock systems move from EXPAGR to HEIA (Fig. 3A) and from HEIA to NCA (Fig. 3B). The thickness of the arrows in the diagrams indicates whether a flow increases or decreases relative to its original value. For example, the bold arrow from fossil resource deposits to crops in Fig. 3A indicates that this flow is more important in HEIA than in EXPAGR. Fig. 3A thus shows that the importance of energy and resource flows in biomass provided to livestock from grazing land tends to decline as access to fossil fuel increases. In other words, fertilisers and fossil fuel replace dung and animal draught when the system moves from EXPAGR to HEIA. This change is associated with increased losses from the crop systems, which initially may not pose a concern as resources are cheap and waste disposal is not immediately problematic. Another aspect of this change is that the crop and the livestock components, when restricted to J.B. Schiere et al. / Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 90 (2002) 139–153 145 Fig. 3. Influence of mode of agriculture on resource flows in mixed farming systems. (A) Resource flows when mixed systems move from EXPAGR to HEIA. (B) Resource flows when mixed systems move from HEIA to NCA. See Table 2 for definitions of EXPAGR, HEIA and NCA. specialised farms, become independent of each other under increasing (fossil reserve based) resource flows. A peculiar case is the flow of livestock feed from crop by-products (i.e. bran from cereal grain and cake (residue after oil extraction) from oil seed crops). It tends to increase at the macro scale because cropping intensifies, leading to production of more crop by-products (Kelley and Parthasarathy, 1994; Joshi et al., 1994). However, the on-farm availability of bran and cakes (i.e. crop by-products) is likely to decrease particularly on small and resource poor farms due to increasingly centralised grain/oilseed processing. The case in Fig. 3B represents an idealised situation where farming moves from HEIA to NCA. Biomass from grazing areas remains a minor source of feed or even continues to decline. The major change is the reduced use of resources based on fossil fuel, due to either high prices of these inputs and/or problems of waste disposal. Use of crop residues for animal feed and of dung and urine for cropping ideally increases together with the on-farm use of crop by-products (brans/oilseed cakes). This helps to keep nutrients and income opportunities in the local system, while allowing animal production on a basal diet of low quality feeds. It is difficult to substantiate, but it may be assumed that labour requirements for enhanced and more judicious resource recycling increase in such system (Chancellor, 1981; Boonman, 1993). Essential in the current analysis is the increased potential for use of leys when systems move to NCA. A ley is 146 J.B. Schiere et al. / Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 90 (2002) 139–153 defined here as a fallow with planted forages in the form of alley cropping, catch crops or grass/legume pastures (Janssen, 1991; Boonman, 1993). Ley crops may serve a variety of purposes. Tree or cover crops can reduce run-off and erosion, while providing fuel, timber, etc. (Kang and Reynolds, 1989). Catch crops can prevent leaching of nutrients, and legumes can save on external resources by fixing nitrogen from the air. Other crops such as certain legumes (Stylosanthes sp.), grasses (Andropogon sp.) or Cruciferae (mustard seed) stimulate mobilisation of phosphate reserves from the soil (Hoffland, 1991). The principal role of livestock in NCA is to convert biomass from leys, bunds, alleys and catch crops into economically valuable products, and to increase flow rates of available nutrients (Bosma et al., 1994; Stangel, 1995; Aarts et al., 1999). These aspects of crop–livestock integration for increased sustainability are discussed in the following section. 5. Modelling for sustainability Most definitions of sustainability commonly focus on compromises among conflicting interests (WCED, 1987; Francis et al., 1990; De Wit et al., 1995; Schiere and Grasman, 1997). New insights from the theory on complex systems show that such a definition is bound to be open to multiple interpretations, and efforts at achieving an objective standard are therefore unlikely or even impossible to succeed (De Wit et al., 1995). Conway and Barbier (1990) supplement the above definition by emphasising that sustainability needs to be maintained ‘in the face of stress or shock’. This specifically refers to aspects of system dynamics and the link with concepts from ecology. However, this aspect of sustainability needs translation into measurable criteria/parameters for practical planning and farm design (Checkland, 1991). A set of four criteria are proposed as shown below. Threshold values are likely to differ as a function of the prevailing conditions in space and time. 1. Degree of self-sufficiency in the short term (FOOD PLUS), expressed as the number of people fed from a given area unit, specified in energy and protein requirements. The affix PLUS indicates that agriculture provides not only calories and protein, but also clothing, shelter, etc. The part of FOOD PLUS that exceeds subsistence requirements, can be sold or exchanged for other goods. 2. Degree of self-sufficiency in the long term, expressed in terms of SOM content. This assumes that land quality in terms of chemical fertility and physical structure is related to SOM content. No generally accepted standards for organic matter quantity and quality have been formulated (which, in view of the current discussion, would be practically impossible), but for West Africa, Feller et al. (1991) have suggested threshold levels for SOM as a function of soil texture to maintain physical and chemical soil fertility. 3. Minimum, though not necessarily zero, use of external inputs, here expressed in terms of nitrogen use. The choice for nitrogen is debatable because (atmospheric) nitrogen can be considered a renewable resource, whereas phosphorus or potassium availability depends on fossil (finite) supplies. In that sense, resources such as water or fossil energy might also be more appropriate, but nitrogen is used here since it is very essential for life and because the reasoning can easily be extended to other nutrients. 4. Criteria derived from system dynamics: sustainability in the face of stress or shock. These aspects cover concepts such as system resilience, stability and equity (Conway, 1986; Holling, 1973; Pannell and Bathgate, 1991; Morrison et al., 1986). Quantification of these concepts is not attempted, but their importance is discussed. 6. Scenario studies 6.1. Methodology 6.1.1. Modelling approaches Several modelling approaches and software packages are available for feed allocation and simulation of livestock systems. A number of scenario studies was carried out at the Department of Animal Production Systems of the Wageningen Agricultural University, The Netherlands by using different approaches, i.e. linear programming (LP) (Kater, 1989; Bos, 1991; Insiani, 1990) and a combination of spreadsheets and dBase (Kaasschieter et al., 1990). Linear programming (resource maximisation matrix) was used in many of J.B. Schiere et al. / Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 90 (2002) 139–153 147 the above studies because it is specifically designed for resource allocation, and it provides a convenient platform for interdisciplinary discussion. Also LP can do resource allocation over time and space with no difficulty other than an expanded matrix size. Linear programming is often understood to give one solution rather than a range, but this issue was overcome by running the model several times. The studies aimed at exploring options and constraints, rather than predictions, for crop–livestock integration for more sustainable forms of agriculture. 6.1.2. Approaches to evaluate the FOOD PLUS criteria The following four approaches were taken. 1. The output of the farm system was maximised for FOOD PLUS at a set of predetermined crop/ley ratios ranging from 100% crop to 100% ley. This resulted in a series of points that formed a response curve as in Fig. 4, an approach also followed by Renkema (1972), Morrison et al. (1986), Kingwell and Pannell (1987) and Schiere et al. (1999). 2. Losses that are either inherent to the process or are the result of inappropriate management/design were ignored, although they can be quantified and incorporated in more detailed modelling. 3. The scenarios for sustainable crop–livestock systems were examined through sensitivity analysis, based on realistic standard values, rather than on data collected for a particular case that cannot be extrapolated to other contexts. 4. The model assumed that a completely vegetarian diet was possible at 100% crops and that a diet consisting of only animal products was possible at 100% ley. This simplification allowed the exploration theoretical extremes. Pastoral tribes in Africa are known to survive almost entirely on animal produce, and vegetarians survive well without any food from animal origin (Spedding, 1979; Reader, 1988). Although several aspects need further research (e.g. labour or draught requirements, the effect of livestock on nutrient dynamics, or the use of livestock for security or savings, or even the effect of seasons or indivisibility of production factors), the results provide a useful framework for further discussion and research. Fig. 4. The behaviour of farm systems consisting of a series of ratios of crops and ley with and without livestock in relation to criteria 1–3 (see text). In (a), the broken lines a1 and a2 indicate that the curvature of line A B is variable, but that the combination crops and livestock can achieve higher total FOOD PLUS than crops alone. FOOD PLUS is defined as the degree of self-sufficiency for energy, protein, and clothing, shelter, etc. In (b), SOMG and SOML are points at which the graminae/grass and legume ley lines intersect the X-axis, respectively (see text). 6.2. Results and discussion The results of the scenario studies are simplified and summarised in Fig. 4a–c, where the horizontal axis represents the percentage ley in the system. The ley can consist of either grass, legumes or a mix of the two. The vertical axis in Fig. 4a represents the number of people that can be fed (FOOD PLUS), based on energy and protein requirements. The vertical axis in Fig. 4b and c represent the SOM balance and the need for external nitrogen, respectively, simplified and assumed to be linear following Kaasschieter et al. (1990). Fig. 5 shows how the case of Fig. 4 is likely to develop over time, i.e. it suggests that the negative SOM balance 148 J.B. Schiere et al. / Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 90 (2002) 139–153 from animal produce are assumed to be 5 and 10 times as high as from crops. The results are discussed below in relation to practical observations from field conditions. Fig. 5. The production of FOOD PLUS over time (solid lines refer to crop production only, broken lines to mixed cropping systems). The t0 , t10 and tn denote short, medium and long term, respectively. FOOD PLUS is defined as the degree of self-sufficiency for energy, protein, and clothing, shelter, etc. at the left-hand side of the X-axis in year ‘0’ translates into lower FOOD PLUS over years to come. Fig. 6 shows how farm income varied at different levels of subsistence needs and when the price of nutrients Fig. 6. Effect of crop–livestock integration on-farm income if surplus production above different levels of subsistence needs can be sold, and where FOOD PLUS from animals is sold at five times as much as those of crops. The dotted lines AB and A B refer to crop production and crop–livestock systems, respectively (see text). FOOD PLUS is defined as the degree of self-sufficiency for energy, protein, and clothing, shelter, etc. 6.2.1. FOOD PLUS Cropping alone at any given time for system selected for the present study provided more FOOD PLUS than animals on fallow grazing or ley (Fig. 4a). Thus, cropping supported a larger population in the short term than 100% ley (Fig. 4a: lines AB and A B ). In this highly simplified reasoning, the line AB for crops without livestock in Fig. 4a declined linearly with an increasing proportion of ley in the rotation, purely because humans are not assumed to eat grass. However, the point A is likely to become lower over time as decreasing soil fertility associated with lower SOM levels in the absence of fallow/ley, results in lower crop yields. This is a typical example of a trade-off between short and long term food security, i.e. between FOOD PLUS and SOM (Table 2). As the SOM balance becomes positive at increasing proportions of ley (Fig. 5), crop yields over time are sustained. Eventually, the line A B is hypothesised to assume the curvilinear shape, implying that in the long term, the combination of crops and livestock can support more people than either of the components alone. Inclusion of livestock (milk, meat) products (Fig. 4a: line A B ) allows in principle also to feed more people than crops alone (Fig. 4a: line AB). Animals utilise crop by-products such as brans, broken grains, oil seed, cakes, stovers and straws (Sundstøl and Owen, 1984; Joshi et al., 1994), but they start to increasingly use fodder as the proportion of ley increases along the X-axis. The effect of inclusion of livestock in a crop system on FOOD PLUS, i.e. the distance between lines AB and A B , depends on as follows. • The requirements of humans for (animal) protein. When these are high relative to the energy needs, the system will even use food (grains) for animal feed to generate more animal protein, thus reducing total FOOD PLUS (Kater, 1989). • The quality of the crop residues and ley. Total output of milk and meat from livestock is low when only straw and stovers with low digestible J.B. Schiere et al. / Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 90 (2002) 139–153 energy contents are available. In that situation, the distance between lines AB and A B is small, ignoring the fact that animal draught can be essential for land preparation. Importantly, for the design of new mixed systems, the amount of digestible nutrients in straws and stovers can be increased through treatments, agronomic practices or choice of cultivar (Sundstøl and Owen, 1984; Singh and Schiere, 1993; Joshi et al., 1994). Also, the quality of ley fodder can be influenced, for example, by the choice between use of legumes or grasses, by cutting regimes, or by season. • Careful adjustment of individual animal and plant subsystem output for maximum total system output as discussed by Kidane (1984), Schiere and Grasman (1997) and Schiere et al. (1999). Individual animal output cannot be very high if crop residues and grasses alone are the sole feed resource. In fact, output targets that exceed the carrying capacity of the feed resource base will even result in reduced total system output (Kater, 1989). 6.2.2. SOM and N balances A major purpose of including a ley for higher system sustainability is to increase SOM including soil nitrogen (Theron and Haylett, 1953; Feigin et al., 1975; Kaasschieter et al., 1990; Bosma et al., 1994; Bationo et al., 1995). As shown above, inclusion of a ley implies a trade-off between FOOD PLUS in the short term and long term, or in terms of this paper: between FOOD PLUS and SOM. The comparison between FOOD PLUS and SOM becomes more interesting when considering the choice between a grass and a legume ley. In principle, a fertilised grass ley provides more SOM than a legume ley, if only because a legume uses part of the absorbed solar energy for the fixation of atmospheric nitrogen (Penning de Vries et al., 1989). The point where net loss/gain of SOM is zero, is the minimum ley area required for sustained FOOD PLUS. This point (the intersect of these lines on X-axis) is indicated in Fig. 4b by SOMG for grass and SOML for legume leys. If stable or increased SOM levels are required for sustainable agriculture, (position of) these points illustrate that less land needs to be followed, i.e. that more people are likely to be sustained with a fertilised grass than a legume ley. The negative trade-off of a grass ley is that nitrogen has to be applied from external 149 sources, contrary to legume leys that are self-sufficient for nitrogen. 6.2.3. Resistance to shock A system (Fig. 4) at the left-hand side of the X-axis with high FOOD PLUS is presumably politically stable in the short term. However, pure cropping systems produce less than mixed systems if no nitrogen and SOM are added from outside sources. This implies less stability in the long term and/or stronger political dependence, again a case of short versus long term. Moreover, the use of leys and keeping animals is a form of diversification that act as a kind of buffer with likely positive effects on the resilience and stability of a system (Bosma et al., 1993; Bosman, 1995; Mace and Houston, 1989; Sansoucy, 1995; Thomas and Lascano, 1995). 6.2.4. Nutrient cycling Systems that shift towards NCA in Fig. 3B show a tendency towards intensive nutrient cycling within the system. Since all resources tend to cycle within the system, a disturbance in one of the subsystems translates into disfunctioning elsewhere. Whereas HEIA lies in the supply of external resources, NCA lies in the internal circulation and mutual adjustment. Indeed, integration of crop–livestock systems for maximum FOOD PLUS in NCA is based on interdependency, i.e. it requires intensive mutual adjustment as discussed above. This is different in EXPAGR where livestock and crops are managed rather independently as a form of risk-spreading and/or economic reasons through diversification. In EXPAGR, therefore, the failure of one is compensated by the success of the other, in the case of NCA, failure of one component can imply collapse of the system. The height of the lines AB and A B above the subsistence requirements of a given population in Fig. 6 indirectly indicate income in the system. In that case, it is important to know that the price for energy and especially protein originating from animal produce can be a factor 5–10 higher than those from plant sources (Crotty, 1980). Therefore, when the production of a system is expressed in monitory terms, it moves to the line A B , illustrating that livestock helps to compensate the losses incurred with a ley (NRC, 1989), thus positively contributing to food security in the long term. 150 J.B. Schiere et al. / Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 90 (2002) 139–153 6.2.5. Equity Integration of crops and livestock on-farm can enhance equity, one of the criteria for sustainability proposed by Conway (1986). It can also affect the export of plant nutrients to the urban centres by providing labour opportunity and income for the country-side, as more added value remains on farm when crop by-products are fed on farm. Integration of several forms of production is likely to reduce pollution problems, because waste from one subsystem can serve as a resource for another subsystem. Thus, the waste/losses flows can be reduced due to integration as indicated in Fig. 3B. 7. Conclusions Changes in resource/demand patterns cause changes in the behaviour of (livestock) production systems. This implies that livestock can be essential for the sustainability of one system in one context and detrimental for the same or another system in a context elsewhere with other resource flows. It is possible to identify contexts and systems where livestock can be useful for increased sustainability and the generalised claims that livestock are detrimental is not supported. Clearly, the complexity of decision making increases when more factors are involved, i.e. when more criteria for sustainability are used. It is a form of experimentation and data handling that is alien to the traditional approaches in reductionist research that separates all factors to study only a few at a time. This paper breaks with such a tradition. The planning and design of sustainable farm systems is a process that involves multiple criteria for system success and sustainability in situations that change over time and space. Conceptual models discussed allow identification and quantification of important issues, but they clearly generate as many questions as answers. Depending on conditions in time and space, a decision can be taken that selects the best (or least destructive) option. Reduced access to land leads to modified, if not lower biomass (=feed) availability. When expansion of the resource base such as prevalent in the EXPAGR and HEIA mode of agriculture becomes difficult, sustained production of FOOD PLUS must originate from savings in the system or from adjustment of demand patterns. Proper system design and judicious use of external inputs can correct imbalances in a system with appropriate management. Especially, in pastoral and specialised systems, livestock keeping is associated with environmental degradation, but livestock creates opportunities for sustainability in mixed systems. When land is the limiting factor, a major production objective is to maintain or increase land quality, e.g. by maintaining or increasing SOM levels for assured food production in the long run, and to increase total production per unit land. Acknowledgements Thanks are particularly due to the students and colleagues Marinus Bos, Loes Kater, Yun Insiani and Gert Kaasschieter whose work was at the basis of this paper. 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