Meteorology
From Common sense to Computer Science.
How Computers and Mathematics changed weather forecasts
and what it it means for us?
The Early Instruments
The Early Instruments
The Early Instruments
 The Radiosonde, is a unit used in
weather balloons to measure
various atmospheric values.
 developed in the late late 19th
century.
 The development of the Radiosonde
provided vital information for the
Numerical weather prediction
calculations.
Early forecasting
 People were able to observe certain atmospheric
patterns and conditions. Such as cloud formations,
Surface wind directions and intensity.
 People were able to make close predictions based on
their experiences.
 They used analog techniques and models
Weather Prediction by a
Numerical Process
 First proposed by a Norwegian Scientist Vilhelm
Bjerknes in 1904.
 In 1922, Richard Lewis Fry published “Weather
Prediction by Numerical Process”
 Although the method was plausible the the sheer
number of parameters and the length of the
calculations were too large to calculate without
computers.
The first use of computers in
Weather forecasting
 In the 1950’s the use of computers in the field became
feasible.
 A team led by mathematician John von Neumann made
the first computerized weather forecast, with Neumann
publishing the paper Numerical Integration of the
Barotropic Vorticity Equation in 1950
 The practical application of Computerized Weather
forecast began 1955, spurred by the creation of
programmable electronic computers.
Basics of Numerical Weather
prediction and Chaos theory.
 The basic idea behind Numerical Weather Prediction
methods is take the state of a fluid at a given time and
calculate its future condition within the mathematical
model.
 The Chaotic nature of the Atmospheric system was
discovered in the 1960’s, and mathematically described
by Edward Lorentz, who founded the field of chaos
theory
 These discoveries led to the development of the
Ensemble Forecasting Method commonly used today.
The Ensemble Forecasting
 Uses a numerical algorithm to determine the future
state of Dynamical system given a set of starting values
which are all plausible given the chaotic nature of the
weather system.
 Scientist take into account a certain amount uncertainty
caused by 1. The imperfect initial conditions amplified
by the chaotic property of the atmosphere 2. The error
introduced due to imperfect mathematical formulation
and approximation.
Modern Meteorology
 Today meteorology is worldwide multi- million dollar
industry with the use of many media outlet such as the
local TV stations and Online sources. All thanks to
technological advances
 Meteorologist use many advanced technologies such as
GPS tracking, sounding rockets, and satellite imagery to
deliver the most accurate and up to date information.
What does this mean for the
aviation industry
 The commercial aviation industry
relies heavily of accurate weather
information. For safety of operation
and flight planning
 The FAA and the ICAO (International
Civil Aviation Organization) has
commissioned one of the most
comprehensive weather report and
forecast systems.
 The use of Automated weather
reporting systems and online outlets
such a www.aviationweather.com and
www.duats.com enable pilots to
receive the most timely information
without a hassle.