Graphical Analysis Why Graph Data? Graphical methods Require very little training Easy to use Massive amounts of data can be presented more readily Can provide an understanding of the distribution of the data May be easier to interpret for individuals with less mathematical background than engineers Graphical methods Quantitative data (numerical data) Cost of a computer (continuous) Number of production defects (discrete) Weight of a person (continuous) Parts produced this month (discrete) Temperature of etch bath (continuous) Graphical tools Line charts Histograms Scatter charts Graphical methods Qualitative data (categorical and attribute) Type of equipment (Manual, automated, semiautomated) Operator (Tom, Nina, Jose) Graphical tools Bar charts Pie charts Pareto charts Getting Started Classify data Quantitative vs. Qualitative Continuous or discrete (quantitative) Chose the right graphical tool Chose axes and scales to provide best “view” of data Label graphs to eliminate ambiguity Graphical Analysis Examples Bar or Column Graph Displays frequency of observations that fall into nominal categories Color distribution for a random package of M&Ms 25 20 Qty 15 10 5 0 brown red yellow green Color orange blue 0 CCD1 CCD2 LR LCCD Low Light Normal Light Bright Light Freehand Scan Controlled Scan Max Pitch Average Max Skew Average Scan Time (Seconds) Line Chart Shows trends in data at equal intervals 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 Performance Category CMOS Graphical methods Acceptable graph EDC Warehouse Test Results for Read Time ALL SYSTEMS 2 Read Time (secs/read) 1.46 1 0.81 0.88 0.52 0.64 0.66 7 8 0.20 N/A 0 1 2 3 4 5 RFID System 6 Graphical methods Better graph EDC Warehouse Test Results for Read Time ALL SYSTEMS Read Time (secs/read) 2 1.46 0.81 0.88 0.52 0.64 0.66 G H 0.20 N/A 0 A B C D E RFID System F Graphical Analysis Details Always label axis with titles and units Always use chart titles Use scales that are appropriate to the range of data being plotted Use legends only when they add value Use both points and lines on line graphs only if it is appropriate – don’t use if the data is discrete Histograms Histograms are pictorial representations of the distribution of a measured quantity or of counted items. It is a quick tool to use to display the average and the amount of variation present. Histogram example The Pareto principle Dr. Joseph Juran (of total quality management fame) formulated the Pareto Principle after expanding on the work of Wilfredo Pareto, a nineteenth century economist and sociologist. The Pareto Principle states that a small number of causes is responsible for a large percentage of the effect--usually a 20-percent to 80-percent ratio. Pareto example Histogram Example in Excel Line Width Histogram 70 50 40 30 20 10 Line Width (um) 4. 96 4. 54 4. 12 3. 69 3. 27 2. 85 2. 43 2. 01 1. 59 1. 17 0 0. 75 Frequency 60 ENGR 112 Fitting Equations to Data Introduction Engineers frequently collect paired data in order to understand Characteristics of an object Behavior of a system Relationships between paired data is often developed graphically Mathematical relationships between paired data can provide additional insight Regression Analysis Regression analysis is a mathematical analysis technique used to determine something about the relationship between random variables. Regression Analysis Goal To develop a statistical model that can be used to predict the value of a variable based on the value of another Regression Analysis Regression models are used primarily for the purpose of prediction Regression models typically involve A dependent or response variable Represented as y One or more independent or explanatory variables Represented as x1, x2, …,xn Regression Analysis Our focus? Models with only one explanatory variable These models are called simple linear regression models Regression Analysis A scatter diagram is used to plot an independent variable vs. a dependent variable Mail-Order House Relationship b/w Weight of Mail vs. No. of Orders 25 No. of Orders (thousands) 20 15 10 5 0 0 100 200 300 400 Weight of Mail (lbs) 500 600 700 800 Regression Analysis Remember!! Relationships between variables can take many forms Selection of the proper mathematical model is influenced by the distribution of the X and Y values on the scatter diagram Regression Analysis Y Y X Y X Y X X Regression Analysis Model SIMPLE LINEAR REGRESSION MODEL Yi = b0 + b1Xi + ei However, both b0 and b1 are population parameters ei Represents the random error in Y for each observation i that occurs Regression Analysis Model Since we will be working with samples, the previous model becomes ^ Yi = b0 + b1Xi Where b0 = Y intercept (estimate of b0) Value of Y when X = 0 b1 = Slope (estimate of b1) Expected change in Y per unit change in X ^ Yi = Predicted (estimated) value of Y Regression Analysis Model What happened with the error term? Unfortunately, it is not gone. We still have errors in the estimated values e i Yi Ŷi Regression Analysis Find the straight line That BEST fits the data Regression Analysis Y Positive Straight-Line Relationship Yi = b0 + b1Xi b1 e4 e2 b0 e1 0 0 e3 x y e5 X Least Squares Method Mathematical technique that determines the values of b0 and b1 It does so by minimizing the following expression n Min e i 1 n n i 1 i 1 Min ei2 Yi Ŷi 2 2 i Yi b 0 b1X i n i 1 2 Least Squares Method Resulting equations (1) (2) n n i 1 i 1 Yi nb 0 b1 Xi n n n i 1 i 1 i 1 Xi Yi b0 Xi b1 X Equations (1) and (2) are called the “normal equations” 2 i Least Squares Method Assume the following values n 5, x 2, y 20, x 2 10, xy 15 Resulting equations 1 5b0 2b1 20 2 2b0 10b1 15 Assessing Fit How do we know how good a regression model is? Sum of squares of errors (SSE) Good if we have additional models to compare against Coefficient of determination r2 A value close to 1 suggests a good fit SSE r 1 SST 2 Where do we get these values?
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