The Graduate
School of
Political
Management
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
Strategies in the 2008
Presidential Campaign
Christopher Arterton
Dean of the GSPM
805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401  Washington, DC 20052  202-994-6000  www.gspm.gwu.edu
The Graduate
School of
Political
Management
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
Definition of Strategy in Electoral Politics
A road map defining an objective*
and
specifying the means* to achieve it
* Precision and concreteness matter!
805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401  Washington, DC 20052  202-994-6000  www.gspm.gwu.edu
Elements of Strategy in Electoral
Politics
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
1. Goals – coalition of voters to support candidacy
2. Available Resources – money, staff, volunteers
3. Deployment of Scarce Resources
4. Messages
The Graduate School of Political Management
805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401  Washington, DC 20052  202-994-6000  www.gspm.gwu.edu
Messaging in Electoral Politics
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
POLICIES:
Proposals advanced by candidate
IMAGES:
Unique qualities of candidate
NARRATIVE: Unique history of candidate
FRAME:
Question to be decided by election
The Graduate School of Political Management
805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401  Washington, DC 20052  202-994-6000  www.gspm.gwu.edu
The Graduate
School of
Political
Management
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
McCain’s General Election Strategy (A)
Goals:
•
•
•
•
Unify party particularly social conservatives
Reach toward undecided voters in middle
Attract women disaffected by treatment of
Clinton
Focus on “Bush states” from 2000 and 2004
805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401  Washington, DC 20052  202-994-6000  www.gspm.gwu.edu
The Graduate
School of
Political
Management
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
McCain’s General Election Strategy (B)
Resources:
•
•
•
•
•
Federal Public Funding: $84 million
RNC Party Funds: $150 Million (?)
Party committees in “Red States”
Choice of Vice-Presidential Running Mate
Highly Centralized Campaign Structure
805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401  Washington, DC 20052  202-994-6000  www.gspm.gwu.edu
The Graduate
School of
Political
Management
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
McCain’s General Election Strategy (C)
Messaging:
•
•
•
“Mavericks” will reform Washington
National Security Expertise: “Country First”
Obama: Cultural “Celebrity” (Not Leader)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ocngIAeXjQ
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Id1IKJGVkvg
4.
5.
6.
Obama: Untested and Inexperienced
Obama: “Tax-and-Spend Liberal”
Obama: “Un-American” http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ONfJ7YSXE5w
805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401  Washington, DC 20052  202-994-6000  www.gspm.gwu.edu
Obama’s General Election Strategy (A)
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
Goals:
•
•
•
•
•
Unify party particularly Clinton supporters
Reach toward undecided voters (“Change Election”)
Mobilize Young Voters (18 to 30)
Increase African-American & Hispanic turnout
35 states = multiple paths to Electoral College victory
The Graduate School of Political Management
805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401  Washington, DC 20052  202-994-6000  www.gspm.gwu.edu
Obama’s General Election Strategy (B)
Resources:
•
•
•
•
•
•
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
Ability to raise money ($151 Million in September)
Three million plus on mybarackobama.com
Organization built during primary campaign
Wholly owned campaign organization
Cohesive structure of “insurgent” campaign
80% of public believing nation on “wrong track”
The Graduate School of Political Management
805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401  Washington, DC 20052  202-994-6000  www.gspm.gwu.edu
Obama’s General Election Strategy (C)
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
Messaging:
•
•
“Change we can believe in”
“Yes we can!”
•
•
Middle-class tax cut http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X8BDyz4J-QA
Jobs, healthcare, environment, energy
independence
McCain = Bush http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PluoMotgl2w
•
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jjXyqcx-mYY http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oTji3oiUKnA
The Graduate School of Political Management
805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401  Washington, DC 20052  202-994-6000  www.gspm.gwu.edu
Competing Frames: McCain
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
This election is about
► effective, experienced leadership; a genuine hero
► a choice for “mavericks” that can and will change
Washington (except in matters of national security)
► choosing a team that will put “Country First”
► times are too critical to elect Obama

an untested, unknown leader

with liberal policies, and

ties to radical elements
The Graduate School of Political Management
805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401  Washington, DC 20052  202-994-6000  www.gspm.gwu.edu
Competing Frames: Obama
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
This election is about
► Change … change we can believe in
► Uniting Americans in a quest: “we are all one people”
► “This is our time” (for greatness): generational shift
► Republican policies have produced the economic crisis
► McCain equals third term for Bush
► Choosing a candidate that embodies change & progress

low key persona and moderate policies

bi-partisan approaches to public policy

the first African-American president
The Graduate School of Political Management
805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401  Washington, DC 20052  202-994-6000  www.gspm.gwu.edu
Electoral College Results 2004 and 2008
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/election/2008/
The Graduate School of Political Management
805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401  Washington, DC 20052  202-994-6000  www.gspm.gwu.edu
BATTLEGROUND 2008 Tracking Poll
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
October 23, October 26 - October 29, 2008
N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E.
The Graduate School of Political Management
805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401  Washington, DC 20052  202-994-6000  www.gspm.gwu.edu
UNAIDED BALLOT (N=800)
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
60%
47% 47% 48% 48% 47%
45%
46%
45%
45%
45%
45%
45%
44% 45%
43% 43% 44%
41% 41% 42%
40%
44% 43% 43% 43% 42% 43% 43% 42%
42% 41%
41% 41% 40%
41% 44%
40% 39% 39% 39% 40%
40%
30%
50%
20%
45%
14% 14% 13% 14%
14% 14% 13% 13%
12% 12% 12% 12% 13% 12% 12% 11%
12% 11% 12% 12% 13%
10%
0%
Week Week
1
2
9/21
9/22
9/23
9/24
9/25
9/28
9/29
9/30
10/1
10/2
10/5
10/6
10/7
10/8
10/9
10/12
10/13
10/14
10/15
McCain
45%
41%
41%
42%
43%
43%
42%
43%
43%
42%
41%
41%
40%
40%
42%
41%
40%
39%
39%
39%
40%
Obama
41%
44%
44%
43%
44%
45%
45%
45%
43%
43%
44%
45%
46%
45%
45%
45%
47%
47%
48%
48%
47%
Barr
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Nader
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
Other
0%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
0%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
Unsure
14%
14%
13%
14%
12%
11% 12% 12% 13% 14% 14% 13% 13% 12% 12% 12%
The
Graduate School of Political Management
12%
13%
12%
12%
11%
805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401  Washington, DC 20052  202-994-6000  www.gspm.gwu.edu
Overall, how satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the choice of
candidates for president this year -- are you very satisfied,
somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied or very dissatisfied?
50%
41%
40%
30%
35%
24%
20% 22%
10%
0%
18%
35%
28%
43%
31%
25%
44%
26%
20%
16%
17%
7%
21%
19%
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
45%
22%
22%
9%
9%
9%
44%
41%
40%
24% 24%
25%
22%
25%
20%
11%
11%
8%
5/7
8/1
9/11
9/25
10/2
10/9
10/15
10/22
10/29
Very Satisfied
22%
20%
31%
25%
26%
22%
24%
24%
25%
Somewhat Satisfied
35%
35%
41%
43%
44%
45%
41%
44%
40%
Somewhat Dissatisfied
24%
28%
17%
21%
19%
22%
22%
20%
25%
Very Dissatisfied
18%
16%
7%
9%
9%
9%
11%
11%
8%
The Graduate School of Political Management
805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401  Washington, DC 20052  202-994-6000  www.gspm.gwu.edu
Who better represents this quality:
John McCain or Barack Obama?
WILL BRING CHANGE TO WASHINGTON
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
80%
70%
61%
60%
52%
55%
57%
58%
57%
59%
50%
40%
34%
32%
30%
29%
20%
28%
28%
28%
28%
9/11
9/25
10/2
10/9
10/15
10/22
10/29
McCain
34%
32%
29%
28%
28%
28%
28%
Obama
52%
55%
57%
61%
58%
57%
59%
The Graduate School of Political Management
805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401  Washington, DC 20052  202-994-6000  www.gspm.gwu.edu
Who better represents this quality:
John McCain or Barack Obama?
IS A STRONG LEADER
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
60%
52%
50%
48%
51%
50%
46%
40%
43%
41%
41%
46%
43%
46%
45%
43%
43%
46%
44%
37%
37%
5/7
8/1
9/11
9/25
10/2
10/9
10/15
10/22
10/29
McCain
48%
52%
51%
50%
46%
46%
43%
45%
46%
Obama
43%
37%
37%
41%
41%
43%
46%
43%
44%
30%
The Graduate School of Political Management
805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401  Washington, DC 20052  202-994-6000  www.gspm.gwu.edu
Who better represents this quality:
John McCain or Barack Obama?
WILL CREATE JOBS*
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
60%
55%
54%
52%
48%
50%
53%
49%
51%
51%
47%
40%
39%
30%
39%
38%
33%
34%
32%
33%
36%
37%
5/7
8/1
9/11
9/25
10/2
10/9
10/15
10/22
10/29
McCain
33%
39%
39%
38%
34%
32%
33%
36%
37%
Obama
54%
48%
47%
49%
52%
55%
53%
51%
51%
The Graduate School of Political Management
805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401  Washington, DC 20052  202-994-6000  www.gspm.gwu.edu
Who better represents this quality:
John McCain or Barack Obama?
KEEPING AMERICA SAFE AND SECURE
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
60%
57%
55%
55%
56%
57%
55%
52%
50%
40%
33%
30%
36%
37%
39%
35%
37%
37%
9/11
9/25
10/2
10/9
10/15
10/22
10/29
McCain
57%
55%
55%
57%
52%
56%
55%
Obama
33%
36%
37%
35%
39%
37%
37%
The Graduate School of Political Management
805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401  Washington, DC 20052  202-994-6000  www.gspm.gwu.edu
Who better represents this quality:
John McCain or Obama?
WILL KEEP AMERICA PROSPEROUS
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
60%
50%
40%
49%
47%
43%
44%
43%
43%
45%
47% 45%
46%
41%
41%
38%
30%
48%
36%
37%
39%
40%
5/7
8/1
9/11
9/25
10/2
10/9
10/15
10/22
10/29
McCain
41%
43%
43%
41%
38%
36%
37%
39%
40%
Obama
47%
43%
44%
45%
46%
49%
47%
45%
48%
The Graduate School of Political Management
805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401  Washington, DC 20052  202-994-6000  www.gspm.gwu.edu
Who better represents this quality:
John McCain or Obama?
WILL UNITE THE COUNTRY
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
60%
53%
52%
50%
50%
52%
52%
53%
49%
47%
39%
40%
36%
37%
34%
33%
30%
53%
33%
32%
33%
32%
5/7
8/1
9/11
9/25
10/2
10/9
10/15
10/22
10/29
McCain
33%
36%
39%
37%
34%
33%
32%
33%
32%
Obama
53%
50%
47%
49%
52%
53%
52%
52%
53%
The Graduate School of Political Management
805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401  Washington, DC 20052  202-994-6000  www.gspm.gwu.edu
Who better represents this quality:
John McCain or Barack Obama?
FIGHTS FOR PEOPLE LIKE ME
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
60%
53%
48%
50%
40%
39%
48%
42%
51%
39%
52%
37%
33%
30%
53%
53%
35%
35%
53%
52%
38%
38%
5/7
8/1
9/11
9/25
10/2
10/9
10/15
10/22
10/29
McCain
33%
39%
42%
39%
37%
35%
35%
38%
38%
Obama
53%
48%
48%
51%
52%
53%
53%
53%
52%
The Graduate School of Political Management
805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401  Washington, DC 20052  202-994-6000  www.gspm.gwu.edu
Who better represents this quality:
John McCain or Barack Obama?
SHARES YOUR VALUES
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
60%
50%
50%
46%
40%
30%
43%
46%
46%
46%
45%
45%
43%
50%
47%
47%
43%
43%
42%
47%
44%
40%
5/7
8/1
9/11
9/25
10/2
10/9
10/15
10/22
10/29
McCain
43%
46%
45%
45%
43%
42%
40%
43%
44%
Obama
46%
43%
46%
46%
47%
50%
50%
47%
47%
The Graduate School of Political Management
805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401  Washington, DC 20052  202-994-6000  www.gspm.gwu.edu
Putting aside your own personal feelings for a moment, how
comfortable do you think that your friends or neighbors would
be voting for a Presidential candidate who is African American? POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
40%
30%
20%
35%
37%
32%
31%
31%
20%
32%
27%
27%
27%
18%
10%
32%
18%
19%
34%
30%
29%
27%
32%
30%
21%
22%
21%
20%
7%
7%
6%
6%
7%
6%
6%
5%
8/8
9/11
9/25
10/2
10/9
10/15
10/22
10/29
Extremely comfortable
18%
20%
18%
19%
21%
22%
21%
20%
Very Comfortable
27%
32%
27%
31%
27%
30%
27%
30%
Somewhat Comfortable
37%
31%
35%
32%
32%
29%
34%
32%
6%School6%
5%Management
7%
7%
Not at all Comfortable The7%
Graduate
of Political
6%
6%
0%
805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401  Washington, DC 20052  202-994-6000  www.gspm.gwu.edu
Putting aside your own personal feelings for a moment, how
comfortable do you think that your friends or neighbors would
be voting for a Presidential candidate who is 72 years old?
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
50%
40%
40%
30%
27%
39%
40%
25%
40%
25%
21%
20%
19%
18%
9%
10%
8/8
9/11
9/25
Extremely comfortable
11%
9%
Very Comfortable
19%
Somewhat Comfortable
40%
11%
43%
16%
43%
39%
24%
14%
17%
10%
42%
24%
18%
21%
23%
16%
16%
9%
8%
9%
9%
10/2
10/9
10/15
10/22
10/29
10%
7%
9%
8%
9%
9%
18%
17%
16%
14%
18%
16%
16%
39%
40%
40%
42%
39%
43%
43%
27%
25%School
21%
25%Management
24%
24%
Not at all Comfortable The
Graduate
of Political
21%
23%
0%
7%
805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401  Washington, DC 20052  202-994-6000  www.gspm.gwu.edu
Regardless of who you intend to vote for, which candidate –
John McCain, or Barack Obama -- do you think is
running a more negative campaign?
60%
53%
50%
42%
40%
28%
44%
32%
0%
11%
10%
9%
10%
9%
12%
8%
5%
52%
57%
28%
20%
12%
56%
47%
21%
20%
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
13%
9%
4%
14%
7%
6%
19%
21%
14%
15%
8%
8%
4%
4%
19%
13%
7%
4%
8/8
9/11
9/25
10/2
10/9
10/15
10/22
10/29
McCain
50%
42%
44%
47%
53%
56%
52%
57%
Both
10%
12%
12%
13%
14%
14%
15%
13%
Neither / No difference
9%
9%
5%
4%
6%
4%
4%
4%
Undecided
11%
10%
8%
9%
7%
8%
8%
7%
21%
28%
32%
28%
20%
19%
The Graduate School of Political Management
21%
19%
Obama
805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401  Washington, DC 20052  202-994-6000  www.gspm.gwu.edu
UNAIDED BALLOT (N=800)
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
60%
47% 47% 48% 48% 47%
45%
46%
45%
45%
45%
45%
45%
44% 45%
43% 43% 44%
41% 41% 42%
40%
44% 43% 43% 43% 42% 43% 43% 42%
42% 41%
41% 41% 40%
41% 44%
40% 39% 39% 39% 40%
40%
30%
50%
20%
45%
14% 14% 13% 14%
14% 14% 13% 13%
12% 12% 12% 12% 13% 12% 12% 11%
12% 11% 12% 12% 13%
10%
0%
Week Week
1
2
9/21
9/22
9/23
9/24
9/25
9/28
9/29
9/30
10/1
10/2
10/5
10/6
10/7
10/8
10/9
10/12
10/13
10/14
10/15
McCain
45%
41%
41%
42%
43%
43%
42%
43%
43%
42%
41%
41%
40%
40%
42%
41%
40%
39%
39%
39%
40%
Obama
41%
44%
44%
43%
44%
45%
45%
45%
43%
43%
44%
45%
46%
45%
45%
45%
47%
47%
48%
48%
47%
Barr
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Nader
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
Other
0%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
0%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
Unsure
14%
14%
13%
14%
12%
11% 12% 12% 13% 14% 14% 13% 13% 12% 12% 12%
The
Graduate School of Political Management
12%
13%
12%
12%
11%
805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401  Washington, DC 20052  202-994-6000  www.gspm.gwu.edu
SUMMARY (with Exit Poll Data):
Obama won because ….
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
► … the economy tanked (63% said most
important: 53/44)*
► … Bush disapproval (51% strongly
disapproved: 82/16)
► … a “Change Election” (34%: 89/9)
► … he raised more money ($639M to $360M
for McCain)
► … the African-American turnout (11% in ’04;
13% in ’08: 95/4)
The Graduate School of Political Management
805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401  Washington, DC 20052  202-994-6000  www.gspm.gwu.edu
SUMMARY Cont. (with Exit Poll Data):
Obama won because ….
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
► … the Latino vote (9% of electorate; 67/31)
► … the young voters (+1% in ’08 to 18%:
66/32)
► … the gender gap (men = 47%: 49/48;
women = 53%: 56/43)
► … a surge in turnout (17% did not vote in
’04: 71/27; increase from 124M to 126M)
► … better organization (26% contacted by
Obama: 64/34; versus 18% contacted by
McCain (38/60)
The Graduate School of Political Management
805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401  Washington, DC 20052  202-994-6000  www.gspm.gwu.edu
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
The Graduate School of Political Management
805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401  Washington, DC 20052  202-994-6000  www.gspm.gwu.edu