Geoderma 122 (2004) 1 – 23 www.elsevier.com/locate/geoderma Review article Carbon sequestration in the agricultural soils of Europe Annette Freibauer a,*, Mark D.A. Rounsevell b, Pete Smith c, Jan Verhagen d a Max-Planck-Institute for Biogeochemistry, P.O. Box 100164, 07701 Jena, Germany Department of Geography, Université catholique de Louvain, Place Pasteur, 3, B-1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium c Department of Plant and Soil Science, University of Aberdeen, Cruikshank Building, Aberdeen, AB24 3UU, UK d Plant Research International, Business Unit Agrosystems Research, P.O. Box 16, 6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands b Available online 27 February 2004 Abstract In this review, technical and economically viable potentials for carbon sequestration in the agricultural soils of Europe by 2008 – 2012 are analysed against a business-as-usual scenario. We provide a quantitative estimation of the carbon absorption potential per hectare and the surface of agricultural land that is available and suitable for the implementation of those measures, their environmental effects as well as the effects on farm income. Realistically, agricultural soils in EU-15 can sequester up to 16 – 19 Mt C year 1 during the first Kyoto commitment period (2008 – 2012), which is less than one fifth of the theoretical potential and equivalent to 2% of European anthropogenic emissions. We identified as most promising measures: the promotion of organic inputs on arable land instead of grassland, the introduction of perennials (grasses, trees) on arable set-aside land for conservation or biofuel purposes, to promote organic farming, to raise the water table in farmed peatland, and—with restrictions—zero tillage or conservation tillage. Many options have environmental benefits but some risk of increasing N2O emissions. For most measures it is impossible to determine the overall impact on farm profitability. Efficient carbon sequestration in agricultural soils demands a permanent management change and implementation concepts adjusted to local soil, climate and management features in order to allow selection of areas with high carbon sequestering potential. Some of the present agricultural policy schemes have probably helped to maintain carbon stocks in agricultural soils. D 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. Keywords: Carbon sequestration; Kyoto protocol; Agriculture; Carbon; Management 1. Introduction Abbreviations: CAP, Common Agricultural Policy of European Community; ECCP, European Climate Change Programme; FAO, Food and Agriculture Organisation; IGBP-DIS, International Geosphere – Biosphere Programme-Data and Information Services; IPCC, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; LFA, Less Favoured Areas; NVZ, Nitrate Vulnerable Zones; SD, Standard deviation; UAA, Utilised agricultural area. * Corresponding author. Tel.: +49-3641-576164; fax: +493641-577100. E-mail address: [email protected] (A. Freibauer). 0016-7061/$ - see front matter D 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.geoderma.2004.01.021 Carbon sequestration in agricultural soils is accountable under Article 3.4 of the Kyoto Protocol. Principal challenges associated with the identification and quantification of accountable activities still remain unanswered, which require political decisions to be made. Here, as one of the prerequisites for carbon accounting, the technical and economically viable potentials for carbon sequestration in agricultural soils of Europe by 2008 – 2012 are analysed against a business-as-usual scenario. We provide a quantitative 2 A. Freibauer et al. / Geoderma 122 (2004) 1–23 estimation of the carbon absorption potential per hectare, and for the total area of agricultural land that is available and suitable for the implementation of those measures, their environmental effects, as well as the effects on farm income. 2. Carbon sequestration under business-as-usual 2.1. Land use and management change arising from European policy 2.1.1. General effects The principal aim of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) mechanisms has been to maintain farm incomes by manipulating producer prices (intervention, import duties), whilst imposing production controls (quotas or set aside). The 1990s, however, experienced radical change in the structure of the CAP with a move away from price support based on production to area-based payments, and the introduction of a wealth of rural development and agri-environmental measures. Whilst these policies are likely to influence land use and management in different ways, it is also difficult to disaggregate direct policy effects from the influence of other socio-economic trends. These include, for example, technological change, the effects of world markets and international agreements, changing consumer preferences as well as soil and water quality (Rounsevell et al., 2002). 2.1.2. Specific land use changes Set aside following the 1992 MacSharry reforms is one of the few land use changes that is a direct consequence of policy. Current terms require 10% set aside with a provision for voluntary set aside up to a maximum of 50% of the arable area, although these areas were different in the past. Set aside is important because of the potential for soil C sequestration and for fossil fuel off-set using biofuels planted on set aside land (Smith et al., 2000a,b). Current estimates suggest that 20% of set aside land is being used for non-food crops, of which rapeseed for the production of biodiesel accounts for 80% (Joaris, 2002). There has been a clear decline in the area of grassland in Europe since the 1960s. This has largely resulted from the increased production of maize at a time when livestock numbers were reduced due to the implementation of milk quotas in 1984. Since the early 1990s, however, grassland areas have remained fairly stable. Two explanations seem plausible: the 1992 CAP price support reforms and the introduction of agri-environmental and rural development measures. The MacSharry reforms effectively prevented grassland to arable conversions by fixing the area of land that was eligible for arable area payments. Thus, only land that was in arable production on 31 December 1991, could claim the aid payment. The Less Favoured Areas (LFA) policies have probably contributed to the maintenance of permanent pastures in arid and upland grazing areas. Thus, the policy has effectively maintained the status quo in many grassland areas and one could question what land use would have existed if marginal areas were abandoned or converted to other uses. It is possible that the return of land to natural vegetation types would have led to an increase in C stocks in the biomass whilst soil carbon could have rather decreased (Guo and Gifford, 2002; Jackson et al., 2002). The total area of woodland in Europe has increased throughout the period of the CAP (Rounsevell et al., 2002). Although woodland on agricultural land accounts for only a small proportion of this area, recent afforestation policies have contributed to a large increase. A total of 519,350 ha (excluding Belgium and Fig. 1. Yearly C fluxes per hectare and in EU-15 under business as usual scenario in the first commitment period 2008 – 2012 (Vleeshouwers and Verhagen, 2002). Positive sign: carbon sink; negative sign: carbon source. Standard deviation (SD) of total flux sum from cropland flux estimates. Yield data used were on a whole country basis (FAO-data) and soil data (C and texture) were taken from the IGBP-DIS soil map (Global Soil Data Task, 2000). A. Freibauer et al. / Geoderma 122 (2004) 1–23 Sweden) were afforested between 1993 and 1997 with Spain alone accounting for 46% of this area. The area of permanent crops (vineyards, orchards) in Europe has reduced substantially since the mid 1970s (Rounsevell et al., 2002). This was mostly because of reductions in the area of vineyards between 1980 and 1995, which was strongly influenced by the Community aid for the grubbing-up of vines, and a shift either to better quality 3 wine production or the cultivation of other crops. Olive plantation areas have tended to remain fairly stable during this period, although there has been a trend of replacing older systems with more up-to-date production methods. Agri-environmental measures encouraged conversion to, and maintenance of, organic farming by providing financial compensation to farmers for any Fig. 2. Simulated carbon fluxes in soil organic matter in Europe (t C ha 1 year 1) in the commitment period 2008 – 2012 (business-as-usual scenario). Simulations were made using the mean soil organic carbon content (SOC) reported by IGBP-DIS (Global Soil Data Task, 2000) and its standard deviation (SD) as the initial situation in 2000 (Vleeshouwers and Verhagen, 2001). 4 A. Freibauer et al. / Geoderma 122 (2004) 1–23 losses incurred during conversion. The total area of land devoted to organic farming is just under 2% of the utilised agricultural area (UAA) of the EU-15, but varies considerably between countries. Italy alone has 27% of the EU organic land, followed by Germany (16%) Austria (12%) and Sweden (9%) (EC, 2001). It is currently impossible to say how the nitrates directive has influenced land use. In theory, the policy affects the profitability of farm enterprises and, therefore, farmer land use decisions. Nitrate Vulnerable Zones (NVZ) are implemented very differently in different regions of Europe, and at the European scale it is impossible to generalise about its effects on land use. Limiting the addition of N fertiliser may also play a role in reducing soil C contents, although this effect may be negligible at the European scale since many soils are N-saturated. 2.2. Baseline carbon sequestration Whether agricultural soils are a sink or source of carbon depends on the actual organic matter content in the soil (Vleeshouwers and Verhagen, 2002). Establishing a baseline of carbon contents in the topsoil is crucial when establishing whether agricultural land was a sink or source in 1990. When assessing the effects of mitigation options this question is of minor importance, because a measure may result in an enhancement of a sink or a reduction of a source. To establish a baseline we need to look at changes in management practices over time (e.g. increase of fertiliser in organic farming systems). Area specific data related to land use and carbon are presented in Section 3. The only available spatially explicit European baseline was modelled by Vleeshouwers and Verhagen (2002) with the CESAR model. A detailed description of the model and considered environmental factors is given in Vleeshouwers and Verhagen (2002). The resulting variation of C stock changes under business as usual estimated in Europe was high (Fig. 2). Assuming the use of inorganic fertiliser and removal of crop residues from the field, which is probably a worst case scenario, Vleeshouwers and Verhagen (2002) calculated average carbon fluxes under the business as usual scenario in the 2008 –2012 commitment period for Europe. Per hectare values for grassland fluxes of carbon range from 1.81 to 2.31, mean = 0.60, SD = 0.64 t C ha 1 year 1. Equivalent figures for arable land were min: 2.93, max: 0.31, mean = 0.83, SD = 0.40 t C ha 1 year 1 (Fig. 1). Positive fluxes mean carbon uptake by the soil while a negative sign indicates a carbon source (Fig. 2). 2.3. Variability and uncertainty Ecosystem productivity as well as organic matter decomposition are strongly determined by environmental conditions. Weather, soil type and past land management have a direct effect on the carbon sequestering potential. This variability is reflected in the decomposition rate as a function of soil temperature and moisture (Vleeshouwers and Verhagen, 2002; Fig. 3). High decomposition rates occur in regions where high temperatures in summer coincide with moist conditions whereas low decomposition rates occur in areas with low temperatures and wet conditions. Regional differences in crop yield exist, but the FAO data set does not contain such information. Besides the spatial variation of C input from crop residues, quality of data of soil carbon stocks due to the high standard deviation in the IGBP-DIS database and of land management, especially of manure application, residue management and tillage, is a point of concern. For grassland production only a limited amount of yield data is available, adding to the large uncertainty associated with the spatial variability, the same holds for farm management practices of grazing and grass cutting. So far, only the uncertainty in soil Fig. 3. Annual relative decomposition rates (% year 1 of total soil organic matter) calculated by CESAR (Vleeshouwers and Verhagen, 2001). A. Freibauer et al. / Geoderma 122 (2004) 1–23 carbon stocks has been incorporated in the uncertainty estimates in Figs. 1 and 2. 3. Potential measures for carbon sequestration in agricultural soils 3.1. Options for sequestering carbon in mineral soils In agricultural cropping systems, the larger part of the carbon is stored in the soil. Input of carbon to soil is determined by the net primary production and the fraction of it remaining on the field. Loss of carbon is determined by decomposition and loss of topsoil by erosion. The rate of decomposition is controlled by ambient temperature and soil physical and soil chemical conditions. In general, low crop yields, high soil carbon contents and high soil organic matter decomposition rates enhance the loss of carbon from agricultural soils. Evaluation of current and new management practices for carbon sequestration will focus on the input and the output of soil organic carbon. Possible changes of emissions of N2O and CH4 are important when determining the greenhouse gas mitigation effect of a given activity, especially when organic amendments and no-till options are involved (Smith et al., 2001a; 2000b). More research is needed in order to better evaluate the overall greenhouse gas effect of C sequestration measures. This paper concentrates upon cropland and grassland management, though organic soils are also considered where they are used for agriculture. Management changes within a single land-use (e.g. reduced tillage on cropland) as well as transitions between landuses are considered (cropland to grassland conversion). Increasing the soil carbon content means increasing the carbon input, decreasing the output or a combination of the two through improved management. Carbon sequestration can also occur through a reduction in soil disturbance because more carbon is lost from tilled soils than from soils that are less disturbed. Measures for reducing soil disturbance include reduced or zero tillage systems, set-aside land and the growth of perennial crops. Measures for increasing soil carbon inputs include the preferential use of animal manure, crop residues, sewage sludge, and compost on cropland instead of grassland, improved rotations with higher carbon inputs to the soil, and in 5 some cases fertilsation/irrigation/livestock management to increase productivity. Switching from conventional arable agriculture to other land-uses with higher carbon inputs or reduced disturbance (e.g. bioenergy crop production, conversion to grassland, natural regeneration) will increase soil carbon stocks (Table 2). The potential for carbon sequestration of these measures is discussed in Section 3.3. Increased yields in the past have not produced higher input of carbon in the soil. In contrast, increases in yields were mainly achieved through changes in the harvest index (Evans, 1993). So while grain yields increased, the amount of crop residues was reduced. 3.2. Alternative use of peatlands Virgin peatlands take up carbon at rates between 0.1 and 0.3 t C ha 1 year 1, but emit CH4 at significant rates, turning them into a source of 0.16 (range: 0.14 –1.5) t ha 1 year 1 C-equivalents (Cannell and Milne, 1995) based on the following global warming potentials: CO2 = 1, CH4 = 21, N2O = 310 (IPCC, 1996). The cultivation of peatlands releases carbon by rapid peat oxidation, at a rate of 2.2 – 5.4 t C ha 1 year 1 (min: 2.2, max: 31 t C ha 1 year 1; Kasimir Klemedtsson et al., 1997; Freibauer, 2003). Carbon losses increase with deep drainage and intensive mechanical soil disturbance, especially after deep ploughing (Kasimir Klemedtsson et al., 1997). Whilst CH4 emissions more or less cease completely after drainage, N2O emerges at rates that exceed those from mineral agricultural soils by a factor of 2 –10. In total, average greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural peat soils are estimated to range between 3.5 (2.2 – 5.2) t ha 1 year 1 C-equivalents in grasslands, 4.9 (3.3 – 6.5) in croplands, and 6.5 (3.8 – 9.5) under potatoe or sugar beet (Freibauer, 2003). Large variability in C losses is mainly caused by differences in drainage, climate, fertility and peat type (Aerts and Toet, 1997; Chapman and Thurlow, 1996; Kasimir Klemedtsson et al., 1997). Decomposition rates after drainage in eutrophic peats are higher than in oligotrophic peats (Minkkinen et al., 1998). In the context of carbon sequestration, the rationale for alternative use of peatlands is the preservation of the existing large carbon stocks in peat soils and the reduction of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions rather than an increase of soil carbon stocks in the short 6 A. Freibauer et al. / Geoderma 122 (2004) 1–23 term (Komulainen et al., 1999). On the other hand, peat carbon losses may be compensated by enhanced vegetation growth (Cannell et al., 1993; Minkkinen et al., 1998), so only a full greenhouse gas budget reveals the climatic benefit of rewetting drained peatlands. Potential alternative uses of agricultural peat soils include the avoidance of potatoes and sugar beet, avoidance of deep ploughing, maintenance of a more shallow water table and the conversion of arable cropping to permanent cultures as well as new crops on restored wetlands. 3.3. Potential of different agricultural management options for sequestering carbon in soils The carbon sequestration potential in agricultural soils has been estimated globally, emphasizing temperate croplands (Table 1). Table 1 Carbon sequestration potential outside Europe Measure Cropland Improved crop production and erosion control Improved farming on eroded soils Conservation agriculture Conservation tillage No-till Eliminate bare fallow Region Global Potential soil carbon sequestration rate (t C ha 1 year 1) Reference 0.05 – 0.76 Watson et al., 2000 Humid Semi-arid 0.2 – 0.5 0.1 – 0.2 Lal, 1999a Lal, 1999a Drylands Tropical areas Australia, Canada, USA Drylands Tropical areas Canada 0.15 – 0.3 0.3 – 0.8 Lal, 1999b Lal, 1999b 0.2 – 0.4 Watson et al., 2000 0.1 – 0.2 0.2 – 0.5 Lal, 1999b Lal, 1999b Model: 0.07 – 0.14 9 long-term experiments: 0.16 Smith et al., 2000a; 2000b Janzen et al., 1998, in Smith et al. 2000a; 2000b Watson et al., 2000 Canada 0.17 – 0.76 Table 1 (continued) Measure Cropland Organic amendments Mulch farming or plant cover Composting Nutrient management Water management Cultivation after land conversion Slash and burn conversion Moimbo woodland conversion to maize cultivation Continuos cultivation Grassland Reduce degradation Improve grazing management Grassland and pastures Afforestation Agroforestry Wetland Wetland restoration Conversion to agriculture Region Potential soil carbon sequestration rate (t C ha 1 year 1) Reference USA 0.1 – 0.3 Drylands Tropical areas Drylands Tropical areas Drylands Tropical areas Drylands 0.05 – 0.1 0.1 – 0.3 Watson et al., 2000 Lal, 1999b Lal, 1999b 0.1 – 0.3 0.2 – 0.5 Lal, 1999b Lal, 1999b 0.1 – 0.3 0.2 – 0.5 Lal, 1999b Lal, 1999b 0.05 – 0.1 Lal, 1999b Western Kenya Mozambique 10 (loss) 8 (loss) Zimbabwe 2.7 (loss) Kenya 0.9 (loss) Woomer et al., 1997 Woomer et al., 1997 Woomer et al., 1997 Woomer et al., 1997 Global 0.024 – 0.5 Global 0.22 – 0.7 Drylands 0.05 – 0.1 Watson et al., 2000 Watson et al., 2000 Lal, 1999b Tropical areas Tropical areas Tropical areas 0.1 – 0.2 Lal, 1999b 4– 8 Lal, 1999b 0.2 – 3.1 Lal, 1999b 0.1 – 1.0 Watson et al., 2000 1 to 19 (loss) 0.4 to 40 (loss) Watson et al., 2000 Range of reported values Boreal and temperate Tropical A. Freibauer et al. / Geoderma 122 (2004) 1–23 Few studies have estimated agricultural soil carbon sequestration potentials for Europe. Early estimates by Smith et al. (1997a,b, 1998a,b) were based on 46 long-term experiments in Europe. Since these studies collected together all available long-term experimental data on agricultural soil carbon sequestration in Europe, we do not re-review that literature here. Instead, we use these values, other estimates added by Batjes (1996) and Nabuurs et al. (1999) and the most recent estimates of Smith et al. (2000a;b) and Vleeshouwers and Verhagen (2002) to provide up-todate estimates of agricultural soil carbon sequestration potential in Europe. Based on values in the papers listed above, which already include reviews of European measurements and long-term experiments, and on our own calculations, estimates per hectare for agricultural soil carbon sequestration potential in Europe are presented in Table 2, including estimates of uncertainty associated with these figures. All fluxes are given as gross values without consideration of the hidden C cost of the input involved. Carbon sequestration rates in Table 2 are at the high end of worldwide estimates (Table 1), but are restricted to a time scale of few decades. The figures given in Table 2 were largely derived using statistical relationships that averaged across soil types and climates from a large number of long-term experiments. The carbon sequestration values were also derived for average European arable soils. The average stock of soil C was calculated for all nonorganic soils (i.e. less than 5% C); arable soils were assumed to be placed at random on soils of different C content, so the average stock of soil C in European arable soils is equal the average C stock of nonorganic soils in Europe—about 53 t C ha 1 for 0– 30 cm depth (Smith et al., 2001b). As such, there is much variability among climatic regions and soil types. Whilst clay soils accumulate carbon relatively quickly, sandy soils may accumulate practically no carbon even after 100 years of high carbon inputs (Christensen, 1996). Similarly, soils in colder climates where decomposition is slower, may accumulate carbon more rapidly than soils in warmer climates. According to Vleeshouwers and Verhagen (2002), the highest sequestration rates through the application of farm-yard manure were calculated for South – West and South – East Europe (e.g. Spain and Turkey), where low soil carbon contents occur together with 7 a dry summer season, which reduces the decomposition of soil organic matter, but in reality little manure is available in this region. Conversion of arable land into grassland and leaving behind cereal straw exerted the greatest effect in Western Europe, where grassland and cereal yields are highest. The effect of reduced tillage was highest where relatively high soil carbon contents occur simultaneously with relatively high decomposition rates, like for example in the Netherlands and in North-Germany. When calculating total carbon sequestration potentials for Europe, the area where it is feasible to carry out a specific measure should be taken into account (Smith et al., 2000a,b). For example, application of farmyard manure is restricted by the amount, of manure produced, and conversion of arable land to grassland is restricted to the area of surplus arable land. Finding better estimates for these values will be an important step forward in assessing regional differentiation in the efficacy of carbon dioxide abatement options in European agriculture. European totals based on estimates of the average gain of measures and the average proportion of agricultural areas that may be subjected to the measures were calculated by Smith et al. (2000a,b). The relative effects of the different measures in the study by Vleeshouwers and Verhagen (2002) agree well with Smith et al. (2000a,b., 2001a) and long-term experiments referred to therein. Only the effect of applying farm-yard manure to cropland calculated in Vleeshouwers and Verhagen (2002) as 1.5 t C ha 1 year 1 clearly exceeds the one calculated by Smith et al. (2000a,b, 2001a) as 0.4 t C ha 1 year 1 although both studies apply farm-yard manure at 10 t fresh matter per hectare and use similar humification rates. However, the CESAR model tends to overestimate carbon sequestration rates when the supply of organic matter strongly increases (Vleeshouwers and Verhagen, 2002). In addition, Vleeshouwers and Verhagen (2002) calculate the biophysical sequestration potential whilst the estimate of Smith et al. (2000a,b, 2001a) is partly constrained by resource availability. Both studies rely on the assumption that farmyard manure spread on cropland sequesters more carbon than if spread on grassland, which has recently produced some controversy (Arrouays et al., 2002). Compared to the business-as-usual scenarios, the changes in carbon fluxes owing to the different 8 Table 2 Measures for increasing soil carbon stocks in agricultural soils and potential yearly soil carbon sequestration rates (t C ha measures for increasing soil carbon stocks in agricultural soils for Europe (EU15) and limiting factors Measure 1 year 1 ) and total carbon sequestration potential of Estimated uncertainty (%) Reference/ notes Total soil carbon sequestration potential if all agric. land used (Mt C year 1) Limiting factor Soil carbon sequestration potential (Mt C year 1) given limitation Soil carbon sequestration potential (Mt C year 1) by 2012 Reference/ notes Cropland Zero-tillage 0.4; 0.3 F 0.1 >50%; 0 to 0.7 1, 2 28 24 2.4 19 Reduced-tillage < 0.4 H50% 3 < 28 < 24 < 2.4 19, 20 Set-aside < 0.4 H50% 4 28 < 2.4 0 21 Perennial grasses and permanent crops Deep-rooting crops 0.6 >50% 5 45 Suitable land = 63 Mha Suitable land = 63 Mha < 10% of arable land; < 7.3 Mha No incentives to grow more 0? 0? 22 0.6 >50% 5 45 0? 0? 22 Animal manure 0.4; 1.5 F 0.1 >50%; 0.7 to 3.2 1 27 24 ? 23 Crop residues 0.7; 0.2 F 0.1 1 26 5.5 ? 23 Sewage sludge 0.3 >50%; 0.3 to 0.3 >50% 1 19 2.1 ? 23 Composting 0.4 H50% 6 27 3 3? 24 Improved rotations Fertilisation Irrigation >0 Very high 7 0 Research and breeding needed for annual crops Manure available = 385 Mt dm year 1 Surplus straw = 71 Mt dm year 1 Sewage sludge = 8.1 Mt dm year 1 = enough to cover 8.1 mio ha at 1 t ha 1 year 1 13 – 22 Mt year 1 d.m = enough to cover 6 – 11 mio ha at 20 t ha 1 year 1 >0 0? 0? 25 0 0 Very high Very high 8 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 25 25 A. Freibauer et al. / Geoderma 122 (2004) 1–23 Potential soil carbon sequestration rate (t C ha 1 year 1) 0.6 H50% 1 45 Extensification 0.5 H50% 1 39 Organic farming 0 – 0.5 H50% 9 0 – 39 Convert arable to woodland 0.3 – 0.6 H50% 1, 18 45 Convert arable to grassland 1.2 – 1.7; 1.9 F 0.6; 0.3 – 0.6 110% (0.6 – 3.1) 10, 18 87 – 123 Convert grassland to arable 1.0 to 1.7 H50% 11, 18 70 to Convert permanent crops to arable 1.0 to 0.6 1.7; H50% 11, 18 12 Convert woodland to arable 0.6 > 50% 18 Less than 0.1 – 0.5 H50% 12 7 to 37 Grassland Increase the duration of grass leys 124 78 Assuming food demand remains the same—can use only current set-aside = 7.3 Mha Assuming food demand remains the same—can use current set-aside to extensify about 30% of arable agriculture = 20 Mha Currently 2% or arable area = 1.5 Mha. Could increase to 10% = 7.3 Mha. Assuming food demand remains the same—can use only current set-aside = 7.3 Mha Assuming food demand remains the same—can use only current set-aside = 7.3 Mha Land-use change since 1990 calculated as 2.7 Mha Land-use change since 1990 calculated as 0.4 Mha Negligible land-use change since 1990 Assuming food demand remains the same – can use only current set-aside = 7.3 Mha, which means a doubling of leys in existing rotations 4.5 0.9 26 11.4 ? 27 3.9 < 3.9 28 4.5 < 4.5 29 9 – 12 0 30 3 since 1990. Future = 0 0 31 0 32 0 0 33 0.8 – 3.5 0.8 – 3.5 30 0.4 since 1990 9 (continued on next page) A. Freibauer et al. / Geoderma 122 (2004) 1–23 Bioenergy crops 10 Table 2 (continued) Measure Estimated uncertainty (%) Reference/ notes Total soil carbon sequestration potential if all agric. land used (Mt C year 1) Limiting factor Soil carbon sequestration potential (Mt C year 1) given limitation Soil carbon sequestration potential (Mt C year 1) by 2012 Reference/ notes 0.3 – 0.4 H50% 12 22 – 29 2.2 – 2.7 2.2 – 2.7 30 0.2 H50% 12 9 Assuming food demand remains the same – can use only current set-aside, extent of present leys = 7.2 Mha Opposes present CAP to maintain extensive grassland 0 0 25 H50% 12 Opposes present CAP, uncertain effect on climate 0 0 25 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 34 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 34 Revegetation Abandoned arable land 0.3 – 0.6 H50% 13 29, 18 Assuming food demand remains the same—can use only current set-aside = 7.3 Mha 4.5 < 4.5 35 Farmed organic soils Protection and restoration Up to 4.6 Range 0 – 4.6 Spatial variability high 14 >10 >10 10 14 0 >50% 14 0 GHG: 0.5 Assuming all cultivated organic soils are restored = 4% of total agricultural area High yields and financial returns for sugar beets and potatoes, no incentive 0? 0? 14 Grassland Change from short duration to permanent grasslands Increase of fertilizer on nutrient poor permanent grassland Intensification of organic soils with permanent grassland Livestock management Fire protection Avoid row crops and tubers 0.9 to 1.1 2 to 2 A. Freibauer et al. / Geoderma 122 (2004) 1–23 Potential soil carbon sequestration rate (t C ha 1 year 1) Avoid deep ploughing More shallow water table >50% 14 0.8 GHG: 0.8 1.4 – 4.1 >50% 14 10 GHG: 10 Convert arable to grassland Convert arable to woodland 1.4 >50% 14 0.8 GHG: 0.8 0.5 – 1.4 H50% 15 0.5 GHG: 0.8 New crops on restored wetlands from arable New crops on restored wetlands from grassland Sheep grazing on undrained peatland 2.2 – 4.6 >50% 16 >2 GHG: < 2 0.8 – 3.3 >50% 16 6 GHG: 5 >2.2 >50% 17 >6 GHG:>8 >2.2 >50% 14 >6 GHG: >8 Abandon for conservation Traditional land-use system, no incentive Possibly attractive on grassland when new melioration is needed—50% of grassland area during first commitment period = 1.5 Mha No incentive 0? 0? 14 4 4 14 0? 0? 14 Subsidies compensate income losses— adoption rate max. 50% of arable area = 0.3 Mha Needs more research and demonstration 0.3 0.3 14 0? 0? 14 0? 0? 14 3 3 17 0? 0? 14 Needs more research and demonstration Common practice in Scotland and Ireland, could be linked to subsidies for extensification – adoption rate probably 50% of grassland area 1.5 Mha No incentive A. Freibauer et al. / Geoderma 122 (2004) 1–23 1.4 11 12 A. Freibauer et al. / Geoderma 122 (2004) 1–23 Notes to Table 2: The potential indicated is to a large extent non-additive. GHG: Greenhouse gas reduction in C-equivalents. 1. Smith et al. (2000a,b); per hectare values calculated using the average C content of arable top soils (to 30 cm) of 53 t C ha 1; Vleeshouwers and Verhagen (2002). 10 t of farmyard manure (fresh matter) applied annually per hectare. 2. Uncertainty estimated from 95% confidence interval about the mean-statistical uncertainty of the mean only; actual uncertainty is higher. 3. Estimated from papers reviewed in Smith et al. (2000a,b). 4. Assumed to be the same as zero tillage figure of Smith et al. (2000a,b). 5. Assumed to be the same as for bioenergy crops figure of Smith et al. (2000a,b). 6. Assumed to be the same as animal manure figure of Smith et al. (2000a;b). 7. Minimal impact of arable rotations in papers reviewed in Smith et al. (2000a,b) but perennial crops in rotations may increase soil carbon levels. 8. Net carbon impact of irrigation and fertilisation is minimal or negative when carbon costs of producing fertiliser and pumping irrigation water are considered (Schlesinger, 1999). 9. Organic farming is increasing in Europe, but is not a single management practice. Within an organic farm, a combination of practices may be used including extensification, improved rotations, residue incorporation and manure use. These will contribute to carbon sequestration positively, but in different proportions depending of the degree of implementation of a given practice. Zero and reduced tillage are generally incompatible with organic farming since increased tillage is frequently used to control weeds. It is, therefore, impossible to assign an exact figure for the carbon sequestration potential of organic farming, but a range between the lowest and highest potential sequestration rate can be given. 10. From Vleeshouwers and Verhagen (2002). Also based on figures from Rothamsted grass to arable conversions; for first 15 – 25 years after conversion. 11. From figures of Jenkinson (1988) used by Smith et al. (1996). Also based on figures from Rothamsted grass to arable conversions; for first 15 – 25 years after conversion. 12. From French experiments by P. Loiseau, in Arrouays et al. (2002). Grassland area from EC (2001) for 1997, grassland on organic soils estimated from Lappalainen (1996). 13. Per hectare value assumed to be the same as Rothamsted Geescroft natural regeneration (Poulton, 1996). 14. Calculated in this study. Carbon sequestration is from avoiding carbon loss from peats. Further benefit through reduced emission of N2O, which is not compensated by increased CH4 emissions. GHG: Effect including N2O and CH4, given as CO2-equivalents. 15. Sites in Ireland, Scotland and Sweden (Byrne and Farrell, 2001; Cannell et al., 1993; Maljanen et al., 2001). 16. Typha: German constructed wetland (Kamp et al., 2001). 17. Garnett et al. (2000). 18. Land use change estimates also from Guo and Gifford (2002), Murty et al. (2002): relative changes in soil carbon stocks given in these studies were linearly discounted over a 25-years period, assuming initial soil carbon stocks of 43 t C ha 1 in cropland and of 70 t C ha 1 in grassland and forest (average for France, Arrouays et al., 2002). 19. Total figure for EU15 calculated from figures in Smith et al. (2000a; 2000b). Suitable land area from Smith et al. (1998a,b). Estimated maximum of 10% adoption before 2008 estimated from uptake in the USA since 1970 in Lal et al. (1998). 20. Total figure for EU15 estimated to be lower than figure for zero-till calculated from figures in Smith et al. (2000a,b). 21. Set-aside has decreased during the 1990s. If at current levels (10% of arable area; Smith et al., 2000a,b) the potential would be 2.4 Mt C year 1, but is likely to be negligible by 2012. 22. Total figure for EU15 based on per hectare value assumed to be the same as for bioenergy crops. There are no special incentives for perennial crops so the prevalence of perennial crops is unlikely to increase. 23. Total figure for EU15 calculated from figures in Smith et al. (2000a,b). Total amount of manure and sewage sludge available from Smith et al. (1997a,b) of surplus cereal straw from Smith et al. (2000a,b). Guestimate that only 20% of surplus cereal straw will be usable for incorporation into the soil, with remaining straw either used for bioenergy combustion or not viable due to transport/economic constraints. 24. Total figure for EU15 based on per hectare value assumed to be the same as animal manure. Total compost dry matter from Enzo Favoino, Monza/Italy, personal communication. 25. Assumed negligible benefit, e.g. Rounsevell et al. (2002). 26. Total figure for, and area available in, EU15 calculated from figures in Smith et al. (2000a,b). Uptake assumed to be 20% of maxiumum potential by 2008 as for the UK (UNFCCC, 2001). 27. Total figure for, and area available in, EU15 calculated from figures in Smith et al. (2000a; 2000b). 28. Total area currently under organic production (2%) in EU15 taken from values given in Rounsevell et al. (2002), total area from those calculated from Smith et al. (2000a; 2000b). Assuming that organic farming would remain profitable only if less than 10% of farm products were produced organically. 29. Total figure for and area available in EU15 calculated from figures in Smith et al. (2000a, 2000b) and from ECCP (2001). 30. Total figure for EU15 from Vleeshouwers and Verhagen (2002). Available area ( < 10% set aside) from Smith et al. (2000a,b). Livestock numbers are falling; unlikely to be greater demand for new grassland. A. Freibauer et al. / Geoderma 122 (2004) 1–23 measures or climate change effects evaluated in Vleeshouwers and Verhagen (2002) were considerably less sensitive to the initial soil carbon content. The reason for this is that they are the resultant of the difference between two carbon fluxes calculated with the same initial value of soil carbon content. This favorably affects the robustness of the estimates and the quantification of regional differences. Inter-annual variability in climate affects yields and hence, the amount of carbon returned to the soil, and also decomposition rates. As illustrated by Vleeshouwers and Verhagen (2002), the effect of leaving behind and incorporating straw residues varies. Even when averaged over a period of 5 years, natural interannual variation in prevailing conditions and crop yields may cause substantial variation in the effect of the measure. This raises the question whether it may be more appropriate to reward an activity aimed at the increase of carbon rather than to reward its actual effect on the carbon stock in the field, since the latter may partly depend on the climatic conditions beyond farmers’ influence. 3.4. Factors limiting carbon sequestration in soils 3.4.1. Mechanisms of carbon sequestration Carbon sequestration is usually measured in terms of the total carbon stored in the soil but how much carbon is stored, and for how long this carbon can be stored, depends upon the pools (active/labile vs. recalcitrant/passive) and their recycling (Six et al., 2001; Gleixner et al., 2002), form of stabilization (chemical/physical) (Kaiser et al., 2002) and physical location (inter/intra-aggregate vs. free) (Balesdent et al., 2000; Six et al., 2001) of the carbon in the soil. It is beyond the scope of this review to cover the huge body of literature on these mechanisms. Instead we 13 Fig. 4. The accumulation of total soil carbon in silty clay loam soils at Rothamsted, UK, when old arable land is sown to permanent grass. Adapted from nitrogen content in Fig. 18.10 of Jenkinson (1988), C/N ratio = 10. focus on the practical management options available to increase to total carbon content of the soil. 3.4.2. Sink saturation Whilst the figures given in Table 2 are approximate for a short period (5 years Kyoto Commitment Period), changes in carbon sequestration with time need to be considered. Soil carbon sequestration is non-linear. Long-term experiments show that increases in soil carbon are often greatest soon after a land-use or landmanagement change is implemented (Smith et al., 1997a,b and papers quoted therein). As the soil reaches a new equilibrium, the rate of change decreases, so that after between 20 and 100 years a new equilibrium is reached and no further change takes place (Fig. 4). This phenomenon is sometimes referred to as sink saturation (Watson et al., 2000). Whilst soil carbon levels may not reach a new equilibrium until 100 years after land-use or land-management change (Smith et al., 1996), carbon sequestration potential Notes to Table 2 (continued): 31. Total area available in EU15 calculated from figures in Smith et al. (2000a,b) and EC (2001). About 3 Mha of permanent pasture have been lost since 1990. 60% of the 0.5 Mha afforested between 1993 and 1997 under regulation 2080/2092 came from permanent grassland = 0.3 Mha. This leaves a total area of grassland to arable conversion of about 2.7 Mha from 1990 to present. Further change from grassland to arable is unlikely to occur due to stable food demand. 32. Loss of area of permanent crops (vineyards, olives, orchards) does not necessarily mean conversion to arable land, the land could be abandonded and revegetated. Therefore worst-case estimate. 33. Loss of carbon when converting woodland to arable similar to or smaller than converting grassland to arable (Guo and Gifford, 2002). Actually, afforestation has occurred meaning that the net change will be positive. 34. No reliable data. 35. Same figure as for conversion of arable to woodland. 14 A. Freibauer et al. / Geoderma 122 (2004) 1–23 Table 3 Potential environmental side effects of the soil carbon sequestration options Measure Cropland Zero-tillage Reduced-tillage Set-aside Perennial grasses and permanent crops Deep-rooting crops Animal manure Crop residues Sewage sludge Composting Improved rotations Fertilisation Irrigation Bioenergy crops Potential environmental side effects Some increase in pesticide usage but less fossil fuel used (included in calculations). N2O emissions may increase as soils may become more anaerobic leading to more N2O production from denitrification. When these potential increases in N2O are converted to carbon equivalents and included in the calculations, the total mitigation effect in terms of the global warming potential is reduced by about 50 – 60% compared to when only soil carbon sequestration is considered (Smith et al., 2001a). As for zero tillage. More weeds in years following set-aside—more herbicide usage possible. Improved biodiversity for some species possible. Improved biodiversity for some species possible. Improved continuity of soil pores to greater depth, enhanced deep infiltration. Potentially a number of environmental side effects associated with the significantly increased transport required for this measure (Smith and Smith, 2000). Increased transport emissions which are about 30% of sequestered carbon if average distance moved is 100 km. But increased demand for fuel, increased particulate losses from combustion of fuel, if fitted with catalytic converters, increased ammonia and other gaseous emissions from transport etc. (ECCP, 2001). On the positive side possible trace gas benefits (compared to applying the manure to grasslands) and improved soil structure and water holding capacity (Smith et al., 2001a). Possible slight increase in N2O emissions due to more organic material in the soil as a source of mineralisable N (Smith et al., 2001a). Possible slight increase in N2O emissions due to more organic material in the soil as a source of mineralisable N. Non-regulated sewage sludge or any other waste can have negative environmental effects such as the build-up of heavy metals and organic pollutants. The sludge could, however, be applied at below the safe EU limits (Smith et al., 2001a). Environmental benefits from application of urban composts including the avoided use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides, improved tilth, positive effect on trace minerals. Possible slight, increase in N2O emissions due to more organic material in the soil as a source of mineralisable N, but not confirmed by measurements. Also possible N2O emissions during composting process. If carefully planned, could reduce nitrate leaching. Increased N2O emissions due to addition of extra reactive N to the soil. CO2 carbon costs of fertiliser production can be greater than the soil carbon sequestration benefit (Schlesinger, 1999). CO2 carbon costs of pumping irrigation water can be greater than the soil carbon sequestration benefit (Schlesinger, 1999). This is a measure that the UK Government believes can mitigate emissions of CO2 from fossil fuels and has introduced the Energy Crops Scheme under the England Rural Development Programme to support these activities. Expenditure of £ 30 m over the seven year life of the programme will support planting of crops and setting up of producer groups for short-rotation coppice growers. Because the biomass fuel chain results only in some GHG emissions (sometimes nearly C-neutral-depending on the biomass chain, considered), energy crops can make a significant contribution to Government targets on renewable energy and climate change. The Prime Minister recently announced a further £ 50 m support for renewable energy from biomass and offshore wind. This is not carbon sequestration since the carbon is rapidly burnt to substitute for fossil fuels. The IPCC calls this ‘‘carbon substitution’’, replacing fossil carbon by ‘‘recent’’ carbon (ECCP, 2001). May also improve biodiversity and leisure and amenity value of the arable land (Smith et al., 2001a). A. Freibauer et al. / Geoderma 122 (2004) 1–23 15 Table 3 (continued) Measure Cropland Extensification Organic farming Convert arable to woodland Convert arable to grassland Convert grassland to arable Convert permanent crops to arable Convert woodland to arable Grassland Increase the duration of grass leys Change from short duration to permanent grasslands Increase of fertilizer on nutrient poor permanent grassland Potential environmental side effects Wildlife benefits, animal welfare benefits, improved soil structure (Smith et al., 2001a). Potential benefits due to reduced fertilizer production (hence less CO2 produced), more fuel carbon used as physical methods are used to reduce weeds in place of herbicides, possible wildlife benefits, animal welfare benefits, improved soil structure, potentially more nitrate leaching and N2O emissions (depending on time of application of manure). Benefits potentially high if afforestation is sensitive to regional habitats and landscapes. Biodiversity and landscape will not be improved by commercial monocultures. This requires abandonment of agricultural land. Afforestation is already part of agroenvironmental schemes in some member states (ECCP, 2001). May improve biodiversity and leisure and amenity value of the land (Smith et al., 2001a). Potentially high benefits depending on end use and type of restored grassland habitat. May reduce leaching. Lose soil carbon. Of minor importance. The arable land area has been largely fixed since 1992. Lose soil carbon. Lose soil carbon. May reduce leaching. Beneficial for soil structure and erosion protection. May reduce leaching. Beneficial for soil structure and erosion protection. Intensification of organic soils with permanent grassland Livestock management Fire protection Increased N2O emissions due to addition of extra reactive N to the soil. CO2 carbon costs of fertiliser production can be greater than the soil carbon sequestration benefit (Schlesinger, 1999). May enhance productivity. Uncertain benefit for CO2, and risk of increased N2O emissions (cf. above). May reduce soil degradation and compaction. Improve biodiversity in fire prone areas. Revegetation Abandoned arable land Same as for ‘‘convert arable to woodland’’. Farmed organic soils Protection Avoid row crops and tubers Avoid deep ploughing More shallow water table Convert arable to grassland The potential for GHG reduction is high. If the reduction of N2O and CO2 emissions originally emitted from peat oxidation is included, the overall effect is >1.4 Mt C-equivalents year 1 if an adoption on 10% of farmed peatlands of either of the measures (1) no roots and tubers, (2) abandon tillage, (3) recultivation, is achieved (ECCP, 2001). Frequent and intensive soil disturbance under vegetables, potatoes, and sugar beets and enhances N mineralisation (Klemedtsson et al., 1999). In several Swedish studies, N2O emissions were higher than under cereals. Avoid a pulse in soil aeration. However, this means to abandon the traditional practice in many regions with a sandy mineral layer underneath the peat and makes the soil less workable. This will restrict the choice of arable crops and will probably be restricted to grasslands. Best in conjuntion with a more shallow water table. (continued on next page) 16 A. Freibauer et al. / Geoderma 122 (2004) 1–23 Table 3 (continued) Measure Farmed organic soils Convert arable to woodland New crops on restored wetlands from arable New crops on restoredwetlands from grassland Sheep grazing on undrained peatland Abandon for conservation Potential environmental side effects Afforestation of peat soils under arable crops only if provided that a more shallow water table than before is maintained. There will be also some extra benefit through carbon sequestration in wood and wood products (Cannell and Milne, 1995). The afforestation of grasslands will only show long-term benefits. However, Swedish studies suggest that in the first years of afforestation greenhouse gas emissions may be higher (Maljanen et al., 2001). Also Birch planted as short-rotation coppice increased carbon losses and greenhouse gas emissions due to the lowering of the water table by intensive respiration (Å. Kasimir Klemedtsson, personal communication, 2001). Further research is needed before afforestation of peat soils can be recommended as option with short-term and long-term benefits. Unfortunately, a recent EU research proposal in this direction was not funded. Typha produced for industrial raw material on rewetted, formerly drained, fens reduces the emission of greenhouse gases, retains water and probably reactivates the function of peatlands as a sink of nutrients in the landscape (Wild et al., 2001). However, economic viability and large-scale applicability still remain to be proven. Same as for new crops on restored wetlands from arable. Abandon drainage and use native grass sod for extensive sheep grazing. Sheep-grazing and rotational burning are widely practised on blanket peat moorlands in the United Kingdom. In a study of Garnett et al. (2000), light sheep-grazing did not affect rates of C accumulation over 30 years in blanket peat, but decadal burning of moorland reduced C sequestration. Peatlands need decades to recover from drainage and to regain the original vegetation cover. Nevertheless, the restoration will rapidly stop peat oxidation. Manifold conservation and recreation benefits. may be minimal after 20 years. Twenty years is also the period used by the IPCC for national greenhouse gas inventories (IPCC, 1997). Soil carbon sequestration does not have unlimited potential to offset CO2 emissions and the yearly benefits will continue for about 20– 50 years. The final level at which the soil carbon stabilises depends upon the ability of the soil to stabilise carbon (related for instance to its cation exchange capacity or clay content), the prevailing climate determiing soil moisture and temperature, the quality (decomposability) of the carbon added to the soil, and the balance between the carbon input to the soil and the carbon lost through respiration. 3.4.3. Non-permanence Soil carbon sequestered in arable soils is nonpermanent. By changing agricultural management or land-use, soil carbon is lost more rapidly than it accumulates (Smith et al., 1996). For soil carbon sequestration to occur, the land-use or land-management change must also be permanent. Whilst agricul- tural soils that are tilled every few years may contain more carbon than the same soils cultivated every year (Smith et al., 1997a,b and papers quoted therein), much of the benefit of reduced tillage is lost by ploughing, when compared to a permanent management change. The impacts of such practices can be estimated; for example permanent set-aside or zerotillage might result in a carbon sequestration potential of 0.4 t C ha 1 year 1, whilst set-aside or zero-till which is ploughed every 3– 4 years would have a carbon sequestration potential that is much lower. For practical purposes, however, in order to implement a meaningful carbon sequestration policy on agricultural land, management changes must be permanent. 3.4.4. Availability of land and adoption of measures Other factors limiting the implementation of soil carbon sequestration measures are the availability of suitable land and soils and the availability of limited resources such as the amount of sewage sludge, animal manure or cereal straw available. In a recent A. Freibauer et al. / Geoderma 122 (2004) 1–23 review comparing bioenergy offsets with carbon sequestration potential, Cannell (2003) estimated the biological potential, realistically achievable potential, and a conservative achievable potential for carbon sequestration. In Table 2, we give the total estimated carbon sequestration potential for Europe of each of the measures, taking account of limitation in suitable land/resources, etc. (between the biological potential and realistically achievable potential according to the definitions of Cannell, 2003). Where possible, the potential attainable by the end of the first Kyoto Commitment Period (2012) is estimated (between the realistically achievable and conservative achievable potential as defined by Cannell, 2003), though more work needs to be done in estimating social and economic limitations to the implementation of these measures. 4. Potential environmental side effects of soil carbon sequestration measures A number of potential side-effects of agricultural carbon mitigation measures were described by Smith et al. (2001a) and expanded upon by the European Climate Change Programme (ECCP, 2001). In Table 3, we summarise these results and add new findings for the extra land management changes suggested here. A main consideration for many agricultural practices is the impact on the trace gases N2O and CH4 and impacts on other nitrogen losses. Given that organic matter contains nitrogen as well as carbon, increasing the soil carbon content also provides more substrate for N loss by leaching and N2O emission. For practices that potentially increase denitrification (e.g. no-till), these N2O losses can be substantial and may impact the overall greenhouse gas mitigation potential significantly (Smith et al., 2001a). Other practices, such as conversion to woodland, may have significant positive side effects such as increased biodiversity. 5. Effects on farm income Since the Treaty of Rome, the underlying principle of the CAP has been to maintain farmer incomes. This 17 principle has continued into the 1990s, and each new policy whether related to production, rural development or agri-environment has had some mechanism for compensating farmers for potential losses in income following the implementation of the policy. AGENDA 2000 (EC, 1997), for example, has been estimated to have increased average farm incomes by 4.5% (Mortimer, 1998). Furthermore, policies such as the Less Favoured Areas (LFAs) have as their main aim the maintenance of incomes in disadvantaged areas, i.e. where farming would otherwise not be viable. There are, however, regional disparities in these effects with northern European countries (except Ireland) benefiting from higher LFA subsidy payments than in the south. Some incomes in simple LFAs in France and Germany, for example, are even higher than the EU average. Thus, in general the effect of post 1990 policies on farmer incomes has been positive or neutral. 5.1. Factors affecting farm profitability of soil carbon sequestration measures In addition to the effect of specific CAP policies on farmer incomes, one can also examine the potential effects of soil C sequestration measures based on land management. At present, we can describe only qualitatively the impact of these measures on farm profitability and/or costs. Some potential impacts are described in Table 4. Many carbon sequestration measures have potential positive and negative effects on farm profitability. For a few, a net positive impact of farm profitability is expected, whilst for the restoration of drained organic soils, a net negative impact is expected (see Table 4). Within the rural development policy (agrienvironmental scheme), a measure for no tillage in combination with a mulch-seed system exists e.g. in Germany, where between 25 and 60o ha 1 is paid for this measure. Within the ECCP, 20o for the reduction of 1 t CO2 ( 73o per t C) is assumed to be cost effective. Taking this figure and an absorption potential of 0.3 t C ha 1 year 1, 22o could be paid for 1 ha of agricultural land (ECCP, 2001). The economic benefits from CO2 sequestration by themselves could finance additional ‘‘agri-environmental measures’’. The agricultural sector could receive additional benefits from ‘‘emission trading’’. In the 18 A. Freibauer et al. / Geoderma 122 (2004) 1–23 Table 4 Factors affecting farm profitability of soil carbon sequestration measures Measure Cropland Zero-tillage Reduced-tillage Set-aside Perennial grasses and permanent crops Deep-rooting crops Animal manure Crop residues Sewage sludge Composting Improved rotations Fertilisation Irrigation Bioenergy crops Extensification Potential positive effects on farm profitability Potential negative effects on farm profitability Overall effect on farm profitability In dry areas may improve productivity via improved moisture retention In wetter areas more risk of fungal attack, reduced emergence and crop failure. High initial equipment investment cost. In wetter areas more risk of fungal attack, reduced emergence and crop failure. Unless subsidised, reduced area available for production Less flexibility to respond to market changes + or unclear, regionally specific In dry areas may improve productivity via improved moisture retention Possible better long term soil fertility Possible better long term soil fertility Possible better long term soil fertility Possible better long term soil fertility Possible better long term soil fertility Possible better long term soil fertility Possible better long term soil fertility Possible better long term soil fertility Improved production Improved production Depends on price of other fuels. Potential improved long-term fertility Potential improved long-term fertility Premium paid for organic products + or unclear, regionally specific + or + or + or + + Possible harmful effects of sludge may reduce long-term soil fertility + or + + Small increase in fertilizer cost Cost of irrigation water and fuel to pump it Less flexibility to respond to market changes + + or + or + or + or + or + or Convert arable to woodland Possible subsidies to improved leisure and amenity value of the land Convert arable to grassland Convert grassland to arable Convert woodland to arable Depends on relative product values Depends on relative product values More land available for production Less intensive production may lead to reduced per hectare profits Long-term commitment and less flexibility to respond to market changes Reduced area available for production and less flexibility to respond to market changes Depends on relative product values Depends on relative product values Initial clearance costs Depends on relative product values Depends on relative product values + or Depends on relative product values Depends on relative product values + or Improved production Small increase in fertilizer cost + Improved production Small increase in fertilizer cost + Organic farming Grassland Increase the duration of grass leys Change from short duration to permanent grasslands Increase of fertilizer on nutrient poor permanent grassland Intensification of organic soils with permanent grassland + + or A. Freibauer et al. / Geoderma 122 (2004) 1–23 19 Table 4 (continued) Measure Grassland Livestock management Fire protection Revegetation Abandoned arable land Potential positive effects on farm profitability Potential negative effects on farm profitability Overall effect on farm profitability Possibly higher labour costs. Productivity may increase Increased labour cost Labour costs could be lower. Productivity may decrease Product lost to fire less regularly + + or Possible subsidies for improved leisure and amenity value of the land Less land for production + or Farmed organic soils Protection and restoration USA, farmers already have contracts with the industry, offering CO2 credits resulting from changing their land-use systems. If the USA does not participate in the future in the Kyoto Protocol, a lower price per tonne CO2 is expected on the CO2 market due to a reduced demand for CO2 credits (ECCP, 2001). However, with present market prices as low as 3o per t CO2 (0.82o per t C) the economic benefit per hectare is negligible. Another example of measures that promote the accumulation of organic matter in the soil occurs in some regions of Italy, where under the scope of rural development plans (2000 – 2006), farmers are subsidised for the application of organic fertilisers, in particular composted products, by between 155 and 220o ha 1 (ECCP, 2001). 6. Summary and conclusions The direct effect of CAP measures on carbon sequestration in agricultural sinks cannot always be quantified due to interactions with other socio-economic drivers. Indirectly, however, some productionrelated policies and the agri-environmental schemes have probably helped to maintain carbon stocks in agricultural soils. Specific effects include the increase in carbon stocks through afforestation subsidies, the encouragement of organic farming, and the introduction of set aside with its scope for biofuel production with perennial species. Farm-yard manure, which partly consists of straw, is likely to be more resistant to decomposition than Less land for production pure animal manure. In Vleeshouwers and Verhagen (2002), conversion into grassland is the most effective carbon mitigation option, which endorses the main conclusion by Smith et al. (2000a,b, 2001a) implying that putting surplus arable land into longterm alternative land-use, suitable for climate change abatement is the most effective land use option in agriculture. Conversely, however, LFA schemes may have contributed to the maintenance of lower than natural carbon stocks in ecosystems of extensive grazing areas which might otherwise have been abandoned and revegetated by species that assist carbon sequestration. There is a realistic potential to sequester up to 16– 19 Mt C year 1 in agricultural soils of EU-15 during the first commitment period, which is equivalent to 2% of its anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Promising policy measures in all three categories of FCCC/CP/2001/13/Add.1, 2002 (Table 5) imply ancillary environmental and economic benefits: – Cropland management: Promotion of increased C input from organic amendments, organic farming, conservation tillage; – Grazing land management: Maintain a more shallow water table and rewet grasslands on peat soils; – Revegetation: permanent revegetation of set-aside areas with perennial grasses or woody bioenergy crops instead of rotational fallow. Because of regional differences in soil, site, and climatic conditions a substantial spatial component 20 A. Freibauer et al. / Geoderma 122 (2004) 1–23 Table 5 Most promising policy measures (summary of Table 2, cropland only) Policy measure Potential per unit area t C ha 1 year 1 Potential in EU-15 during first commitment period Mt C year Environmental side effects Impact on farm income More N2O from organic amendments? Accounting of N in organic input as fertiliser required to avoid nitrate losses. Erosion control and reduced nitrate leaching under cover crops. Benefits for wildlife, biodiversity, amenity Positive long-term tendency due to better soil fertility, easy implementation 1 1 Promote organic input on arable land instead of grassland (crop residues, cover crops, FYM, compost, sewage sludge) 0.3 – 0.8 5.5 2 Permanent revegetation of arable set-aside arable land (e.g. afforestation) or extensivation of arable production by introduction of perennial components Biofuel production with short-rotation coppice plantations and perennial grasses on arable set-aside land. Promote organic farming 0.5 – 1.9 (mean: 0.6) 4.1 0.5 – 1.9 (mean: 0.6) 4.1 Much greater additional benefit from substitution of fossil fuels by bioenergy Regionally specific, positive if linked to subsidies or emerging markets >0 to 0.5 3.8 Benefits for wildlife, biodiversity, amenity, but risk of more N2O loss from incorporation of legume residues Benefits for wildlife, biodiversity, amenity, water retention, reduced N2O losses Risk of more N2O, more pesticides, very small C sink in reduced tillage systems, erosion control Positive due to premium and growing market 3 4 5 Promote permanently shallow water table in farmed peatland 1.4 – 4.1 4.1 6 Zero tillage/conservation tillage >0 – 0.8 < 2.5 in the net sequestration potential may be expected. Consequently, uncertainties in European scale estimates are large (>50%). To support the development of climate policies, regional estimates of the carbon mitigation potential of land-management strategies are helpful. Such estimates should be supported by regional specific data on soil, climate, land cover, land management and ecosystem productivity. These data are, however, not readily available and quality of the available data varies strongly. The resolution of the FAO data, as used Regionally specific, positive if linked to compensation payment for nature protection Regionally specific, positive if linked to compensation payment for nature protection Site and region specific, increased production risk for farmer positive only if linked to good erosion control and better soil fertility in here is too coarse and produces an unbalanced picture. Creating data sets on above mentioned topics covering Europe at a high (sub-country) resolution will improve estimates and allow selection of areas with high carbon sequestering potential. Acknowledgements This paper was based on a report produced under Contract No. 2001.40.CO001 within the framework of A. 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