GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL
CHANGE SCIENCE
2004 and Beyond
International Human Diemsions Programme
International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme
The Anthropocene Era
Role and Objective
IGBP is an international scientific research programme on
global change. Its objective is:
• to describe and understand
Earth System dynamics,
• focusing on the interactive
biological, chemical and
physical processes,
• the changes that are occurring
in these dynamics,
• and the role of human
activities in these changes.
CHARACTERISTICS OF NEXT
DECADE OF GEC RESEARCH
• Strategic partnerships via Earth System Science-Partnership
(IGBP + IHDP + WCRP + Diversitas)
• More emphasis on issues of societal concern
• More emphasis on the regional scale
• Global change v climate change
• Science focus on the coupled human environment system
IGBP and IHDP in 2004 - 2005
The transition to the 2nd phase and new structure of
IHDP and IGBP is complete. Priorities for 2004 - 2005 are:
• launch the final 2 new joint IHDP-IGBP core projects – GLP
and LOICZ
• Implementation of iLEAPS
• promote and support a small number of Fast Track Initiatives
(e.g., Fire, Nitrogen, Monsoon Asian Integrated Regional
Study (MAIRS))
• enhance links to the observation community (e.g. via IGOS)
• model-data assimilation
• improved predictability of Earth System dynamics
• contribute to and support ESSP
COUPLED HUMAN-ENVIRONMENT SYSTEM
GHG
VOC, NOx
O3
Combined Anthropogenic-Driven Activities
Land
• The nature and causes of land system change.
• The consequences of land system change for
ecosystem services and Earth System functioning.
• Support for sustainable use of land systems using
integrated analysis and modelling.
The IGBP Land Project….
…the Ultimate Challenge
• What are the limits to adaptability? Resilience?
Sustainability?
• In terms of land systems, where are the critical thresholds
that should not be crossed under any circumstances?
• What changes in the Earth System - nature, magnitude,
rate - would be fatal for land systems in the context of
modern societies?
• What are the accessible but intolerable domains in the
co-evolution space of nature and humanity?
Earth System Science Partnership
DIVERSITAS, IGBP, IHDP, WCRP
• an integrated study of the Earth System,
• the changes occurring to the System, and
• the implications for global sustainability.
Implementation
• Approaches
– Place-based research studies
– long-term observations/experiments
– Process models (e.g., vegetation/ecosystem models,
agroecosystem models, agent-based models)
– Integrated studies
• Networks / networks of networks
– existing GCTE, LUCC, Diversitas (and other EESP)
networks
– new networks
– thematic, specific phenomena, tools
• Case studies
– specific systems, e.g. arid, mountains
– regional studies - incl. shared with other projects
Data-Model
Fusion of
Multiple streams
of Datasets
Canadell et al. 2000
OBSERVING EXTENT OF NATURAL DISTUBANCES
J. Logan,
USFS
Urban Footprints and Impacts
Pataki 2002
GCTE-Focus 1
Urban-Settlement Area
Point: Industrial tropospheric pollution [O3] of prime croplands
Chamedies et al. 1994. Science
Point: Area of urban-industrial infrastructure remains small relative to other land-use/cover
changes, but its “footprint” has significant land implications.
An annually averaged MODIS aerosol optical depth for 2001
(courtesy of David Fillmore and NASA MODIS team)
0.0
0.15
0.30
0.45
Aerosol Optical Depth
0.60
Global Terrestrial Datasets
•
REGIONAL AND
PROCESS STUDIES
• FLUX TOWERS
• LAND USE AND
INTENSITY STUDIES
• INVENTORY ANALYSIS
SPACE-TIME COVERAGE OF
TERRESTRIAL OBSERVATION NETWORK
From Ciais et al. Igco draft report, June 2002.
Information Technology for Biogeosciences
•
•
•
•
Developing and testing theory and models requires
integration of complex in situ process data with large
gridded data sets.
Required data are multi-scale, many formats,
originating in multiple disciplines.
Rapid prototyping and development cycle to maximize
user control of information systems, implies
incorporating existing state-of-the-art components
rather than de novo development
Data systems must allow user-driven, knowledgebased querying of multiple data types
User-driven so that information can be retrieved in the form
needed for a research question rather than in the stored
format(s). Example: Land cover, weather, eddy covariance
point fluxes all brought to a common grid for carbon model
validation.
Knowledge-based meaning that known properties of one
queried variable may influence the retrieval of another
variable. Example: known lags between climate and fluxes
in the carbon cycle vary between ocean regions and
ecosystem types. Example: known instrument
characteristics affect the assignment of uncertainties, timelocation-view angle affect interpretation and use in
computations…
From points to pixels
?
Create high res. products
by coupling high res. imagery
with field and tower data
Correlate
Aggregate
Some graphics
of BigFoot
project,
layout
courtesy of
Shunlin
Liang
Multiple
use ofcourtesy
airborne
or high
res.
satellite
data
imply
some efficiencies in coordinated activities/sites
Eg., Carbon uptake modeled
using satellite inputs checked
against eddy correlation data
from the Niwot Ridge LTER site
Point observations are
characteristic of bioregions but
must link to regional
management history data for
extrapolation to grid scale
Soil Carbon Density
(kg/m2)
Low
High
IGBP (DIS) Global Soils (2000)
Flux Towers
An annually averaged MODIS aerosol optical depth for 2001
(courtesy of David Fillmore and NASA MODIS team)
0.0
0.15
0.30
0.45
Aerosol Optical Depth
0.60
Extent of Agriculture
DRAFT: Based on EDC’s Seasonal Land Cover Characteristics Data
Free Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE)
FluxNet Tower Sites
Global Monitoring Networks
Based on DeFries et al., 2000
From Ciais et al. Igco draft report, June 2002.
EOS Land Validation Core Sites
Global Sampling and STEP
Maintenance
• Live (!!) Database: currently ~2300 sites globally
Northeast Land Cover Product
Evergreen
Needleleaf
Forest
Agriculture
Mixed Forest
Agriculture/Natural
Vegetation Mosaic
Urban
Deciduous
Broadleaf
Forest
MODIS Vegetation Phenology:
What is it?
(Zhang et al. 2003; RSE; Zhang et al. 2004 GCB; Zhang et al. 2004, GRL)
• Quantifies Intra-annual Variation (phenology)
– Greenup, maturity, senescence, dormancy
Global Results -2001
(e.g., Northern Hemisphere Green Wave)
Credit: Xiaoyang Zhang