Global Bioethanol Supply

Presented to: CFR 521
Elliott Schmitt
Photos from http://www.nrel.gov/biomass/photos.html
Research Background/Sources
• S. Kim, B. Dale. (2004). Global potential bioethanol
production from wasted crops and crop residues.
Biomass and Bioenergy 26 p.361 – 375
– Method for estimating Bioethanol potential
• United Nations FAO-Statistics
– ProdSTAT; global Agricultural product database
– ForesSTAT; global forest product database
• International Energy Agency – World Energy Outlook
2006
– Future Energy Scenarios & Trends
• US DOE-EERE
– Theoretical Ethanol Yield Calculator
Biomass Types
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Corn & Corn Stover
Barley & Barley Straw
Oat & Oat Straw
Rice & Rice Straw
Sorghum & Sorghum Straw
Wheat & Wheat Straw
Sugarcane & Bagasse
+Recovered Waste Paper
+Wood Residue (e.g. sawdust
Studied Regions
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Africa
Asia
Europe
North America
Central America
South America
Oceania
Assumptions
• Agricultural data from 2006 FAOSTAT
• Theoretical Yields from US DOE
• Waste Crops, crop residues, and waste material only
From Kim & Dale
• FBS (2003)
• Bio-feedstock properties
• Electricity & Steam generation from lignin ignored
• 60% required ground cover for all crop residues, except
rice
• Ethanol is used in Medium-sized passenger E85 vehicle ~
0.72 L of Gas per L of Ethanol
Properties
Total Feedstock
Corn Crop
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64.2% of corn
goes to Animal
Feed
4.6% of Corn is
wasted
Corn Stover can
produce 81.43
GL
Barley
67% of Barley goes to animal feed.
Rice
636 Tg of Rice produced globally in 2006
88% of Rice goes to food production.
Rice Straw can
potentially displace
43 Billion gal of
Gasoline
Recovered Paper
• World bio-ethanol produced ~ 97GL
• Theoretical Yield 116.2 gal/ton (Mixed Paper Waste)
• All paper waste is converted, no recycling
Wood Residue
• World bio-ethanol produced ~ 282 GL
• Theoretical Yield 100.8 gal/ton (Sawdust)
Results!!!
• World Crop production in 2006 was approximately 3674 Tg
– An Increase of 174% from 2003 study
– All crop production increased, except Oats which decreased by 4%
– Sugar Cane production increased by 450%
• Bio-crops in 2006 could potentially yield ~ 653 GL of Ethanol +
97 GL (Paper Waste) + 282 GL (Wood Residue) = 1032 GL of
Ethanol
• This is equivalent to 196 Billion Gallons of Gasoline (replaced
in a mid-size passenger vehicle)
• Asia has the greatest potential for Bio-ethanol production
Future Energy Trends
• Europe expected to overtake Brazil by 2010, and
the US by 2030
• Global biofuels consumption expected to
increase to73.0 Mtoe by 2015, and to 146.7 Mtoe
by 2030
– US, Brazil, & Europe makeup 89% of consumption in
2015, and 69% in 2030 (China has major increase)
• Global Oil demand expected to increase 116
mb/d in 2030 (140% increase)
• Oil peaks in 2015, major oil supply from OPEC
and Non-conventional Oil (shales)
Conclusion
• Rice straw has the greatest potential of all crops ~ 219 GL
– All Crop residues in general are important for bio-ethanol
production
• Recovered Waste Paper & Wood Residues can play
significant role
• By 2030 with increased crop production for increased
population (9 Billion), waste crops, residues, and products
have good potential as bio-ethanol feedstock
• Global Trade of biofuels should be encouraged in the future
– Especially for Europe, who has minimal resources and a greater
demand
– Need to find ways to include developing countries (Africa)
• More information needed to calculate land usage, and
other environmental, economic, & Social Impacts
Questions?