ACCOUNTING FOR INTANGIBLES By Baruch Lev New York University Tel: 212-998-0028 Email: [email protected] Web: www.baruch-lev.com This presentation, or any part of it, should not be reproduced, or otherwise used in any form without Baruch Lev’s written permission. © Baruch Lev, April 2003. All Rights Reserved. AT A GLANCE Intangible Assets are the Major Drivers of Corporate Value and Growth. The Economics of Intangibles: Value-Drivers and Value-Detractors. Intangibles Challenge Investor Valuations. © Baruch Lev, April 2003. All Rights Reserved. 2 AT A GLANCE - Continued The Traditional Accounting System is of Little Help in Monitoring and Accounting for Intangibles, and in Providing Useful Information to Investors. Despite Widespread Disbeliefs, Accounting Data Can be Adjusted, to Better Reflect Value, and Intangibles Can Be Valued. © Baruch Lev, April 2003. All Rights Reserved. 3 I. What They Say Alan Greenspan From one perspective, the ever-increasing proportion of our GDP that represents conceptual as distinct from physical value added may actually have lessened cyclical volatility. In particular, the fact that concepts cannot be held as inventories means a greater share of GDP is not subject to a type of dynamics that amplifies cyclical swings. But an economy in which concepts form an important share of valuation has its own vulnerabilities. As the recent events surrounding Enron have highlighted, a firm is inherently fragile if its value added emanates more from conceptual as distinct from physical assets. A physical asset, whether an office building or an automotive assembly plant, has the capability of producing goods even if the reputation of the managers of such facilities falls under a cloud. The rapidity of Enron's decline is an effective illustration of the vulnerability of a firm whose market value largely rests on capitalized reputation. The physical assets of such a firm comprise a small proportion of its asset base. Trust and reputation can vanish overnight. A factory cannot. Source: Testimony before the Committee on Financial Services, U.S. House of Representatives, February 27, 2002. 4 Leonard Nakamura I argue that U.S. private gross investment in intangibles is at least $1 trillion. Most of this investment goes uncounted. This is not surprising, in that it is new: the rate of investment in intangibles, and its economic value, accelerated significantly beginning around 1980. An intangibles investment rate of $1 trillion suggests that U.S. businesses are investing nearly as much in intangibles as they are in plant and equipment. If we are investing $1 trillion a year in intangibles…then the long-run equilibrium value of intangibles is $6 trillion. Source: Leonard Nakamura, " A Trillion Dollars a Year in Intangibles Investment and the New Economy," 2001. 5 ec -9 M 5 ar -9 6 Ju n9 Se 6 p9 D 6 ec -9 M 6 ar -9 7 Ju n9 Se 7 p9 D 7 ec -9 M 7 ar -9 8 Ju n9 Se 8 p9 D 8 ec -9 M 8 ar -9 9 Ju n9 Se 9 p9 D 9 ec -9 M 9 ar -0 0 Ju n0 Se 0 p0 D 0 ec -0 M 0 ar -0 1 Ju n0 Se 1 p0 D 1 ec -0 M 1 ar -0 2 Ju n02 D Market-To-Book S&P 500 Average Market-To-Book Ratio: 19952002 8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 Month Source: Factset 6 II. WHAT ARE INTANGIBLES? I. DEFINITION Intangible assets are sources of future benefits which do not have a physical embodiment. II. THE MAJOR CATEGORIES OF INTANGIBLES Discovery/Learning: New products, services, patents, communities of practice, Intranet, adaptive capacity. III. Customers: Brands, trademarks, on-line distribution channels,marketing alliances. Human Resources: Work and compensation practices, employee training, incentives. Organizational Structure: Business structures and processes, incentive systems, information and control systems. ALLIANCES PREVALENT IN DISCOVERY/LEARNING AND CUSTOMERS INTANGIBLES © Baruch Lev, April 2003. All Rights Reserved. 7 MANAGERIAL AND INVESTOR CHALLENGES Partial Excludability Value dissipates Hazy property rights Alliance partners capture IP Non-Tradeablility No exit strategy Absence of comparables Absence of futures markets © Baruch Lev, April 2003. All Rights Reserved. High Risks Sunk costs Technology and commercial uncertainty Information Challenged Insufficient performance data Missing inputoutput linkages Non-standardized measures 8 Merck & Co.: Return on Equity (ROE) Based on Expensing (top curve) and Capitalization (bottom curve) of R&D ROE 0.65 0.6 0.55 0.5 0.45 0.4 0.35 0.3 0.25 0.2 Year 0.15 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 © Baruch Lev, April 2003. All Rights Reserved. 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 9 A MAJOR PROBLEM: MONITORING ALLIANCES “Most large companies now have at least 30 alliances, and many have more than 100. Yet despite the ubiquity of alliances—and the considerable assets and revenues they often involve—very few companies systematically track their performance. Doing so is not a straightforward task… Our experience suggests that fewer than one in four has adequate performance metrics… Few Senior management teams know whether the alliance portfolio as a whole really supports corporate strategy.” Source: "Managing an Alliance Portfolio," MckInsey Quarterly, 2002 Number 3. 10 III. Mismeasurement & Biased Reporting of Intangibles The myth of conservative accounting: Mismeasurements of Assets and Income of Intangibles-Intensive Enterprises. Endogenous Software Capitalization: Computer Associates-Yes; Microsoft-No. Asymmetric Accounting: Expense Internally- Generated Intangibles, Capitalize Acquired Intangibles. © Baruch Lev, April 2003 All Rights Reserved. 11 Mismeasurement and Biased Reporting of Intangibles - Continued Manipulation with In-Process R&D. Manipulation with R&D Expenditures (and Other Intangibles?). Reporting Opaqueness: No Information on Employee Training, Brand Enhancement, Software and Technology Acquisitions, R&D Breakdowns, Innovation Revenues, etc., etc. The Myth of Enron, Global Crossing and Winstar Being Intangibles-Intensive. © Baruch Lev, April 2003. All Rights Reserved. 12 IV. Overcoming Accounting Limitations Capitalizing Intangibles. Forming Investment Strategies From Intangibles’ Values. © Baruch Lev, April 2003. All Rights Reserved. 13 Table 1 Descriptive Statistics Panel A: Distribution of R&D intensity by industry* Industry (abbreviation; SIC) Chemicals and Pharmaceutics (Chem.; 28) Fabricated Metal (Fab.; 34) Machinery and Computer Hardware (Mach.; 35) Electrical and Electronics (Elec.; 36) Transportation Vehicles (Trans.; 37) Scientific Instruments (Scient.; 38) Business Services (Bus.; 73) Total Obs. 2,981 1,431 3,803 4,311 1,354 3,400 3,223 Mean 0.0423 0.0262 0.0929 0.0836 0.0454 0.0930 0.0659 SD 0.0655 0.0653 0.2081 0.1526 0.0687 0.1405 0.1887 Median 0.0272 0.0075 0.0423 0.0411 0.0203 0.0552 0.0013 20,503 0.072 0.153 0.032 Scient. 119 139 138 130 128 138 138 154 166 172 178 190 183 188 190 192 Bus. 83 106 104 99 98 103 108 115 134 139 171 183 184 192 187 187 Total 792 921 883 839 835 837 828 879 944 967 1044 1102 1105 1137 1125 1103 2543 2193 15341 Panel B: Observations by industry and year (subsequent returns analysis) Year Chem. Fab. Mach. Elec. Trans. 1983 119 79 152 172 68 1984 135 84 178 198 81 1985 126 81 173 185 76 1986 122 73 163 181 71 1987 116 72 169 183 69 1988 116 74 154 188 64 1989 114 71 157 178 62 1990 124 67 172 184 63 1991 135 66 179 197 67 1992 142 67 185 193 69 1993 160 75 190 202 68 1994 170 72 194 223 70 1995 173 68 194 232 71 1996 179 65 197 242 74 1997 180 62 195 242 69 1998 185 61 184 228 66 Total 2296 1137 2836 3228 1108 * R&D Intensity is measured as the ratio of R&D expense to the market value of equity at the end of the fiscal year. Source: Lev, Nissim, Thomas. 2001. "On the Informational Usefulness of R&D Capitalization." 14 Table 2 Analysis of the Change in the Association of Earnings and Book Value with Price from Capitalization and Amortizing R&D Panel A: Statistics from the reported numbers regression (T = 0) 2000 P/A = β y 1983 1y D y + 2 1/A + 3 B0/A + 4 E0/A + 5 DNE E0/A + 6 DNE + Chem. Fab. Mach. Elec. Trans. Scient. Bus. 1/A 0.090 0.330 1.583 9.222 1.071 6.929 0.022 0.132 0.070 0.183 0.440 2.285 0.968 5.399 B0/A 2.056 17.303 0.568 7.546 1.168 16.358 1.130 14.669 0.963 12.540 1.389 14.667 1.309 14.160 E0/A 8.789 15.271 7.341 15.289 6.304 16.410 7.708 20.504 8.661 20.024 4.581 10.350 10.688 19.870 -13.918 -11.630 -8.634 -10.071 -9.976 -7.534 -13.623 -22.056 -21.249 -21.041 -24.621 -18.749 -15.108 -24.083 DNE 0.002 0.017 -0.223 -3.899 -0.063 -1.134 0.054 0.904 0.092 1.561 0.094 1.091 0.037 0.453 R2 0.268 0.418 0.226 0.250 0.458 0.164 0.284 N 2981 1431 3803 4311 1354 3400 3223 DNE E0/A Source: Lev, Nissim, Thomas. 2001. "On the Informational Usefulness of R&D Capitalization." 15 Panel B: Percentage increase in R2 relative to T = 0 T Chem. Fab. Mach. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Elec. Trans. Scient. Bus. 7.950 1.198 4.457 3.983 1.169 11.743 4.087 14.921 19.621 2.175 2.823 7.433 9.408 7.393 9.637 2.175 2.839 18.130 20.441 5.895 6.891 23.392 3.377 10.205 11.730 3.289 20.910 7.656 26.283 28.659 3.803 3.749 9.808 9.186 13.764 15.239 3.531 3.594 20.584 19.638 7.715 7.074 30.590 3.474 8.552 16.185 3.496 18.505 6.004 32.283 3.346 8.123 16.706 3.168 17.351 4.803 Trans. Scient. Bus. 2.689 2.902 2.435 2.544 3.309 3.210 2.823 2.615 3.155 2.725 2.583 2.560 2.447 3.171 2.977 2.432 2.288 2.563 2.244 2.116 2.051 1.941 1.949 1.558 Panel C: Test statistic (standard normal) for the change in R2 T Chem. Fab. Mach. Elec. 1 7.322 1.597 4.223 4.316 2 7.948 1.695 4.272 5.797 3 8.035 1.738 4.247 6.224 4 8.209 1.747 3.960 5.918 5 8.169 1.619 3.471 5.062 6 8.086 1.500 3.061 4.361 7 7.965 1.432 2.651 3.902 8 7.838 1.333 2.294 3.564 Source: Lev, Nissim, Thomas. 2001. "On the Informational Usefulness of R&D Capitalization." 16 Panel D: Statistics from the “optimal” regression 2000 P/A = β y 1983 1y D y + 2 1/A + 3 BT*/A + 4 ET*/A + 5 DNE ET*/A + 6 DNE + Chem. Fab. Mach. Elec. Trans. Scient. Bus. 0.233 0.905 1.541 9.095 1.057 6.933 -0.031 -0.198 0.253 0.673 0.441 2.338 1.111 6.285 B0/A 2.220 24.023 0.643 8.575 1.117 17.525 1.028 16.903 0.970 12.845 1.384 15.761 1.227 14.904 E0/A 10.459 19.549 7.087 15.066 6.743 18.825 8.760 26.113 8.402 20.592 6.918 15.247 11.061 22.588 -13.581 -11.308 -8.671 -10.379 -9.522 -9.356 -13.404 -22.300 -21.049 -22.341 -27.519 -18.699 -18.383 -25.532 DNE 0.480 4.808 -0.218 -3.868 0.030 0.555 0.272 4.645 0.136 2.350 0.367 4.277 0.208 2.578 R2 0.355 0.434 0.249 0.292 0.475 0.198 0.306 N 2981 1431 3803 4311 1354 3400 3223 1/A DNE E0/A Panel E: Mean (first row) and standard deviation (second row) of the “optimal” book value and earnings adjustments Chem. Fab. Mach. Elec. Trans. Scient. Bus. BT*/A – B0/A 0.1246 0.1692 0.0189 0.0323 0.0729 0.0847 0.1329 0.1574 0.0408 0.0493 0.0954 0.0868 0.0892 0.1444 ET*/A – E0/A 0.0111 0.0334 0.0002 0.0083 0.0031 0.0232 0.0082 0.0296 0.0026 0.0107 0.0058 0.0332 0.0052 0.0345 P is market value of common equity, A is total assets, D y is a dummy variables that equals one for year y, BT (ET) is pro-forma book value (earnings) assuming T years useful R&D life (hence T = 0 implies the reported book-value and earnings), and DNE is a dummy variable that equals one when pre-R&D earnings are negative. Panel B reports the percentage change in R 2 (relative to the benchmark T = 0 regression) from using earnings and book value that have been adjusted to reflect R&D capitalization and amortization over the subsequent T years. The test statistics in Panel C are calculated as (N .5 mean[r02 – rT2]) / std[r02 – rT2], where N is the number of observations, r0 is the residual from the benchmark regressions, and r T is the residual from the adjusted earnings and book value regression. The test statistics have a limiting standard normal distribution. T* denotes the value of T that maximizes the percentage change in R 2 (identified in panel B using bold font). Source: Lev, Nissim, Thomas. 2001. "On the Informational Usefulness of R&D Capitalization." 17 Cisco Systems R&D Capitalization and Amortization ($millions) I. R&D Amortization for 2002 and 2001: Based on Table 2, Cisco’s R&D life is four years (25% annual amortization). R&D Expense 2002 Amortization 2001 Amortization $3,448 3,922 2,704 2,065 1,614 1,207 -$980 676 516 403 -- --$676 516 403 302 Annual Amortization 2,575 1,897 Original Expense 3,448 3,992 2002 1,893 3,448 (2,575) 2,766 2001 (1,014) 3,922 (1,897) 1,011 Vintage/Year 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 II. Adjusted Earnings Reported Earnings Add: R&D expense Subtract: R&D amortization Adjusted earnings © Baruch Lev, April 2003. All Rights Reserved. 18 III. Adjusted Book Value (equity) Reported R&D Vintages: Current year Year -1 Year -2 Year -3 Year -4 R&D Capital Adjusted book value 2002 2001 28,656 27,120 3,448 2,941 1,352 516 0 8,257 3,922 2,028 1,032 403 0 7,385 36,913 34,505 IV. Return on Equity 2002 Reported Adjusted © Baruch Lev, April 2003. All Rights Reserved. 1,893 (28,656+27,120)/2 2,766 (36,913+34,505)/2 = 0.068 = 0.077 19 V. Earnings Growth Reported: Undefined Adjusted: (2,766-1,011)/1,011 = 174% VI. BVDIST(Book Value Distortion) 1.117x(36,913/46,052-28,656/46,052) = 0.201 © Baruch Lev, April 2003. All Rights Reserved. 20 Figure 2: Cumulative Abnormal Returns (CAR) to BVDIST Portfolios 0 .2 Janua Janua 0 .1 5 0 .1 Janua CAR 0 .0 5 0 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 p o rt. p o rt. p o rt. p o rt. 1 (lo w B V D IS T ) 2 3 4 p o rt. 5 (h ig h B V D IS T ) -0 .0 5 -0 .1 -0 .1 5 -0 .2 M o n th Cumulative abnormal return (CAR) is measured as the cumulative sum of the portfolio monthly abnormal returns. Portfolio monthly abnormal return for each of the 36 months is calculated as the average abnormal return for the corresponding month across all firm-year observations that “belong” to the portfolio. Monthly abnormal return is calculated as the difference between the firm’s return and the contemporaneous return on a SIZE and B/M matched portfolio (SIZE and B/M are updated every twelve months). Source: Lev, Nissim, Thomas. 2001. "On the Informational Usefulness of R&D Capitalization." 21 Baruch Lev, 2002. All rights reserved. 22
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