Dengue and Yellow fever in Brazil
Nicolas Degallier, IRD
An historical fact
A seasonal fact
A biological fact
A sociocultural fact
A pilot project: where is the climate?
Mosquito: development
survival
gonotrophic cycle
Basic reproduction
number (R0)
Vectorial capacity
Virus: extrinsic cycle
Infection rate
Other factors:
trophic preferences
human behavior
interrupted feeding
virus genetics
mosquito genetics
vertical transmission
Epidemiology in space and time
Walter M. Ramalho, CENEPI - Ministry of Health
Who? – describe the patient: sex,
age, scholarship, ocupação,
socioeconomical features
Where? – describe the place: city,
address, urban equipamento,
altitude, geographical coordinates.
When? – describe time and
weather: date, weather data
How? – describe the disease:
symptomatology, laboratory data,
diagnostic, immunological status
A spatio-temporal analysis of
Dengue and Yellow fever
DENGUE
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02
Many cases
Seasonality
Urban
100
Few cases
Seasonality
Rural transmission
90%
80
80%
70
70%
60
60%
50
50%
40
40%
30
30%
20
20%
10
10%
Endemic
Epizootic
Epidemic risk
0
0%
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
YELLOW FEVER
100%
90
Total de casos de Febre Amarela Silvestre
Taxa de Letalidade (%)
Epidemiology and Climate
Erik Neves, UnB
Inputs
Users and
Models
•Dengue & YF cases
•Mosquito data
•Mosquito control data
•Meteorological data
•Populational data
•Vegetational data
•CLARIS participants
•Stakeholders
•Web community?
Climate and Epidemiology
•CLARIS participants
•Stakeholders
•Web community?
•Risk maps
•Scenario outputs
•…?
A model of climate driven epidemics
Charly Favier, CNRS
Climate
• Temperature
• Humidity
• Rainfall
Man-made
environment
Second
solution:
First
solution:
empirical
mechanistic
model model
Model
of thepresent
mechanisms
• Fit
between
climatic
sustaining and
the whole
process:
conditions
epidemiological
mosquito development and habit,
informations
virus transmission
• Parameters chosen by the
• Parameters deriving from the
modeller
mechanisms, evaluated from
• Projection of future
present situation
epidemiological information using
• Projection
of future
climatic
predictions
epidemiological information using
• Black box model
climatic predictions
Epidemiological
information
• Vectorial capacity
• R0
• Epidemic risk
• Epidemic curve
Dengue risk model
Man-made environment
Mosquito
immatur
e stages
Human
dengue
status
Reproduction
Virus transmission
Emergence
Climate
Mosquito
adult
stage
R0
Epidemic curves
Vectorial capacity