EMISSIONS OF CO2 FROM FREIGHT TRANSPORT IN LONDON: TRENDS
AND POLICIES FOR LONG RUN REDUCTIONS
Alberto M Zanni and Abigail L Bristow
Transport Studies Group, Department of Civil and Building Engineering,
Loughborough University, UK
[email protected] ; [email protected]
1. INTRODUCTION
The city of London recently launched an ambitious plan that designs a path
towards the reduction of the city’s contribution to climate change. The plan
highlights the necessity of a 60% reduction in CO2 emissions in London by
2050 and identifies transport as one of the key areas where significant CO2
emissions savings have to be made (GLA, 2007).
CO2 emissions generated by urban transport systems have been widely
analysed in the literature in the last decade. However, most studies to date
have focused on the functioning of the personal transport system and the
ways to reduce emissions generated by the movements of people around
cities. Recently the environmental impact of urban freight has begun to
interest both academics and practitioners. This new interest has happened
simultaneously with a growing recognition of the importance of urban freight
transport systems for cities’ life both in economic and social terms. Freight
transport is an important user of the limited and constrained urban space as a
large range of different types of good are not only transported to, from and
across the city streets but also packed, stored, loaded and unloaded in these
locations (Dablanc, 2007).
For all these reasons and because of the array of complex decisions that have
to be taken by different types of users, organising the freight transport system
in an urban area is particularly challenging given the need to consider the
economic efficiency of operations and also respond to growing environmental
and sustainability issues. Among the environmental externalities produced by
freight transport operations in cities, CO2 emissions, air pollution and noise are
particularly important. These issues are common in most urban areas in the
world and London, as an example of a large agglomeration, therefore
represents an important and useful case study for the analysis of CO2
emissions generated by road freight operations.
Planning and designing freight policies in London is particularly challenging
because of the city’s special characteristics. It is acknowledged that the
capital needs profound changes in its transport system in order to
accommodate projected economic and demographic growth (TfL, 2006). In
this context, and following the growing awareness of the importance of the
freight transport system, Transport for London (TfL) recently published the
London Freight Plan (LFP) (TfL, 2008b), which was produced in collaboration
with members of the London Sustainable Distribution Partnerships (LSDP),
freight operators and various bodies and associations. The LFP is a very
© Association for European Transport and contributors 2008
1
useful source of information to identify the policy initiatives and measures
which have the potential to be applied in London in the near future.
The purpose of this paper is to analyse and project freight transport related
carbon emissions in London and examine the potential impact of a range of
policy measures to reduce these emissions in the long run. This research
formed part of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Programme
“Cities”. The key research questions are: what is the amount of CO2 emissions
from freight traffic operations in London and how are these emissions likely to
evolve in the future? and to what extent can policy instruments reduce CO2
emissions from freight?.
This paper is organised as follows. Section 2 outlines the methodology as
applied. Section 3 develops baseline projections of freight traffic emissions to
2050. Section 4 assesses potential policy interventions. Section 5 analyses
the potential impact in London of five promising policy measures. Conclusions
are drawn in section 6.
2.
METHODOLOGY
This analysis has been organised according to the following methodological
steps. The first step involved the development of an approach for the
allocation of freight related CO2 emissions to London. This strongly depended
on the availability of data (see Zanni and Bristow, 2008). This process led to
the adoption of the following assumptions:
•
•
•
freight is here considered in accordance with the definition contained in
the London Freight Plan (TfL, 2008b): “the physical carriage of goods
by any mode. This includes the provision of services and utilities and
the movement of municipal, commercial and domestic waste”.
freight traffic related emissions are allocated to London on the basis of
vehicles kilometres with the Greater London area1 (‘source approach’).
all Light Goods Vehicles (LGV) traffic is counted as freight and
therefore this analysis does not distinguish private from business use of
commercial vehicles or indeed freight use from other commercial uses.
It is therefore likely that our calculations of emissions will overstate
those for the sector but will provide a reasonably accurate reflection of
emissions by vehicle type.
The next step was to develop a simple spreadsheet based model to produce a
baseline profile of traffic and emissions. This profile was then used to produce
baseline projections for both traffic and emissions based on largely upon
extrapolation of trend information on traffic growth and fleet composition.
A review of the most recent literature concerning the impact of transport
policies and logistics practices on traffic and emissions was then produced in
order to identify potential measures and assess their potential impact. The
results of this review were used to produce alternative projections. These
projections were then compared with those in London main freight policy
© Association for European Transport and contributors 2008
2
document (TfL, 2008b) and the results of a exploratory consultation among a
small number of freight experts and practitioners.
3.
BASELINE PROJECTIONS
3.1
Historical Trend and 2005 baseline
First, it has to be noted that information on freight traffic in London is not as
widely available as information on personal transport. The first stages of this
research were therefore devoted to the assessment of the availability of
historical data for the London case. The information on traffic contained in this
section is based on the United Kingdom’s (UK) Department for Transport
(DfT) Road Census information on freight vehicles traffic in London provided
to us by the Transport for London (TfL) Freight Unit and recently published in
London Freight Data Report (TfL, 2008a).
Information on freight vehicle traffic was employed to compute freight vehicles’
CO2 emissions levels for the period 1996-2005. Fleet composition data for the
period 1996 to 2005 by Euro standard technology was obtained from the
National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (NAEI) (AEA, 2007). Because of
lack of information on fleet composition at regional level, London was
assumed to have followed the United Kingdom’s (UK) average over this
period.
CO2 emission factors2 by Euro standard technology were obtained from
several sources as the NAEI website (AEA, 2007) only contained factors for
LGVs and Heavy Goods Vehicles (HGV) up to Euro II standard technology.
Factors for LGVs Euro III and IV diesel engines were taken from a recent
publication by AEA Technology (AEA, 2005). Factors for LGV Euro III and IV
petrol engines were calculated by applying the same scaling factor as for
diesel engines. Factors for HGVs above the Euro II standard were calculated
by applying a scaling factor to the NAEI Euro II figures as reported in a study
produced by NERA for the Department for Transport (NERA, 1999). Table 1
shows the resulting emission factors.
Pre-Euro I vehicles have lower emissions than more recent models largely
due to their smaller size, lower weight and the absence of air pollution
reduction technologies that can work against energy efficiency. From Euro I
there are some small improvements in CO2 emission factors.
© Association for European Transport and contributors 2008
3
Table 1. Emission factors
Vehicle
Euro standard technology
Emission factor
(grams of CO2/km)
Pre-Euro 1a
203.2269
Petrol LGVs
Euro Ia
254.1288
a
Euro II
238.3001
c
Euro III
238.3001
Euro IVc
238.3001
a
Pre-Euro 1
242.9466
Diesel LGVs
Euro Ia
246.1223
b
Euro II
240.6000
Euro IIIb
240.4000
c
Euro IV
240.4000
a
Pre-1988 models – rigid
581.2651
HGVs
Pre-1988 models – articulateda
1273.0359
1988 - 1993 models – rigida
571.9273
1988 - 1993 models – articulateda
1263.0790
Euro I – rigida
684.5428
Euro I – articulateda
1801.2594
Euro II – rigida
672.5857
a
Euro II – articulated
1569.3941
Euro III – rigidc
672.5860
c
Euro III – articulated
1569.3940
Euro IV – rigidc
652.4084
c
Euro IV – articulated
1522.3122
c
Euro IV(+) – rigid
652.4084
Euro IV (+) – articulatedc
1522.3122
Source: a (AEA, 2007), b (AEA, 2005), c adapted from NERA (1999)
Vehicle kilometre figures were then divided by the percentage of each Euro
standard technology within the fleet and then multiplied by the corresponding
emission factors. The resulting emissions profile is shown in Table 2.
Table 2. Vehicle Kilometres, (000) and CO2 emissions (Tonnes/year) in
London 1996 and 2005
Vehicle
1996
% of
2005
% of
% change
total
total
1996/
2005
LGV
Traffic
3308025
76.0
3971975
78.2
+20.1
Emissions
761927
46.4
955399
49.1
+25.4
HGV
Traffic
1041613
24.0
1108297
21.8
+6.4
Emissions
881811
53.6
989634
50.9
+12.2
Total Freight
Traffic
4349638
5080272
+16.8
Emissions
1643739
1945034
+18.3
Source: Vehicle kilometres (TfL, 2008a); Emissions - own calculations.
© Association for European Transport and contributors 2008
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Table 2 shows a significant upward trend in freight vehicle traffic on London
roads over the period 1996-2005, mostly as a result of increased LGV use. In
terms of HGVs growth is largely in the use of articulated lorries. Articulated 6+
axle HGV experienced the most significant growth in this period with total
vehicle kilometres in 2005 more than twice the level in 1996, albeit from a very
low base.
For both LGVs and HGVs growth in CO2 emissions exceeds traffic growth.
For vans this is largely due to the variation in the Euro I engine vans
proportion in the fleet. These vans have a higher CO2 emissions factor than
the Pre-Euro I ones (see Table 1). In the case of HGVs, this reflects the trend
towards heavier articulated vehicles. It is possible to argue that policy should
focus on HGVs because they account for only 20% of the vehicle kilometres
but 50% of emissions or on LGVs because of their higher traffic growth rate.
Here we consider policies targeting both vehicle types.
3.2 “Do Nothing” Projections To 2050
The data presented section 3.1 was employed to produce projections of CO2
emissions in London for the period 2006-2050. In order to do so, traffic
projections were built through extrapolation in accordance with the trend
observed in the period 1993-2005. This assumption was applied to all vehicles
except 6+ axle HGVs which experienced a 246% increase between 1993 and
2005 which, if projected, would have depicted a highly unrealistic situation.
Growth in this sector was capped at 100% to 2025. Then the same trend was
extrapolated up to 2050.
In order to estimate CO2 emissions to 2050, the emission factors described
previously were applied to the traffic projections. In terms of fleet composition,
information on the period 2006-2025, by Euro standard technology, were
taken from the NAEI (AEA, 2007). Data limitations led to the following
assumptions being made:
•
•
•
London was again assumed to follow the national average in terms of
freight vehicle fleet composition.
Emission factors do not change over time. Some efficiency gains are
achieved in the fleet as proportion of more efficient vehicles increases
over time3. Although it is likely that Euro IV engines average emission
factors in 2025 are going to be lower than those of today, no precise
information on the likely evolution of emissions could be found.
Fleet composition for the period 2025-2050 was assumed to remain as
in 2025 with all circulating vehicles belonging to the Euro IV technology
(and for the case of LGVs with a percentage of petrol and diesel
engines of 10% and 90%, respectively). Because of the lack of
information on both fleet composition and CO2 emissions factors for
Euro V and VI technology, this assumption was necessary in order to
build baseline projections.
These assumptions are conservative in assuming no further gains in energy
efficiency and the projection is likely to indicate higher emissions that might
© Association for European Transport and contributors 2008
5
occur in reality because of this. However, it does provide a clear baseline
against which to test policies.
Figure 1 shows a considerable upward trend in road freight traffic in London
over the period 2006-2050 and reflects the trends discussed earlier.
Figure 1.
London freight vehicle traffic projections 2006-2050.
London Freight Vehicles Traffic Projections 2006-2050
14000000
12000000
Total Freight
+131%
.000 v/kms
10000000
LGV
+152%
8000000
6000000
4000000
Total HGV
+54%
2000000
20
50
20
48
20
46
20
44
20
42
20
40
20
38
20
36
20
34
20
32
20
30
20
28
20
26
20
24
20
22
20
20
20
18
20
16
20
14
20
12
20
10
20
08
20
06
0
year
LGV
Rigid HGV
Artic HGV
Total HGV
Total Freight
Figure 2. London CO2 emissions by freight vehicles 2006-2050 (tonnes).
London CO2 Emissions by Freight Vehicle 2006-2050 (T/Year)
4500000
Total Freight
+109%
4000000
3500000
T of CO2/year
3000000
LGV
+152%
2500000
2000000
Total HGV
+74%
1500000
1000000
500000
20
50
20
48
20
46
20
44
20
42
20
40
20
38
20
36
20
34
20
32
20
30
20
28
20
26
20
24
20
22
20
20
20
18
20
16
20
14
20
12
20
10
20
08
20
06
0
year
LGV
Rigid HGV
Artic HGV
Total HGV
Total Freight
Figure 2 shows the total amount of CO2 produced by road freight traffic in
London in the period 2006-2050 would more than double under the
assumptions made, largely driven by traffic growth.
© Association for European Transport and contributors 2008
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Although these projections have been produced following the limiting
assumption that past trends will continue in the future, they represent a useful
comparative baseline. The 2010 and 2025 figures may be compared to
projections for the Greater London area contained in both the London
Atmospheric Emission Inventory (GLA, 2006) and the London Freight Plan
(TfL, 2008b).
Table 3. Freight vehicles total emissions. Tonnes of CO2/year
Source
2010
2025
1
London Atmospheric Emissions
2105739
n.a
Inventory
London Freight Plan
n.a.
25700002
Our baseline projections
2058797
2572156
1
This figure was obtained by adding total emissions from HGVs and LGVs for the Greater
London Area (GLA, 2006).
2
The figure of 2.57 million is reported on p. 91 of the plan (TfL, 2008b)
Table 3 shows that our baseline projections are consistent with those found
elsewhere in official policy documents. They therefore represent a useful
comparative baseline situation which could occur if no additional policy
interventions are implemented.
4. INTERVENTION MEASURES
4.1
Potential Measures
An extensive review of the most recent available literature exploring the
potential impact on freight traffic and emissions of lifestyle changes (such as
the increasing importance of online shopping) and transport policy initiatives,
logistic practices and infrastructural provision was undertaken to identify the
most promising policy measures (Zanni and Bristow, 2008).
A relatively wide range of studies were found to analyse the functioning and
implementation of different freight transport policy measures, logistic practice
and infrastructural change. Some based on evidence gathered in case-study
situations and others the product of simulation or modelling exercises. The
challenge was to identify those studies with a focus on traffic and/or emissions
that actually report the level of impact achieved for one or the other variable.
Few studies actually do this. Subsequently, it was necessary to assess
whether the relevant initiative was applicable to the specific case of London
and, as a consequence, whether it was possible to generalise the results
found in the relevant literature.
Table 4 describes a selection of the initiatives which were identified as having
the best potential to influence London’s freight traffic and/or emissions levels.
Only initiatives for which some evidence on performance was available are
included.
© Association for European Transport and contributors 2008
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Table 4. Policy Initiatives and definitions
Policy – logistics initiatives Description
Collection Delivery Points
Locations (attended or unattended) where
parcels are delivered and then collected by
the recipients.
Vehicle Reception Points
Dedicated locations in an urban area in
which drivers are assisted to park and
unload. Goods are then delivered to their
final destination on foot using handling
equipment (privately owned and managed).
Construction Consolidation
These centres collect construction material
Centres
before it reaches its final destination and
consolidate the loads in a more efficient way.
Urban Distribution Centres
Similar to the centres above but consolidate
all types of goods and are generally public
owned-managed
Dedicated Freight Lanes
Restricting access to non-freight vehicles on
certain corridors
Information
and Optimised vehicle routing, automated vehicle
Communication Technology locations systems, vehicles information
communication systems
(ICT) at Vehicle Level
Partnership
Agreement
- Agreements within businesses in a specific
Collaborative Systems
urban area who cooperate in terms of goods
distribution in order to decrease costs and
minimise the impact of deliveries.
Partnership
agreement
– Schemes to enhance collaboration among
Operators Schemes
operators, clients and local authorities in
order to promote efficient and sustainable
practices in freight operations
Drivers
Performance Safe and Fuel Efficient Driving Training,
Management
performance league among drivers, precise
fuel
consumption
recording
sheets,
tacograph monitoring
Trucking Efficiency Measures Aerodynamics, tyre inflation control, wide
(including loading factors)
base tyres, tare-weight reduction, low-friction
lubricants, reduced engine idling, maximum
speed reduction, double-decker vehicles
Low Emissions Vehicles
Promoting the usage of low or no emission
vehicles
Low
Emissions
Zone, London policies aimed at reducing traffic and
Congestion
charging
and emissions by regulating access in terms of
vehicle type, time of travelling and pricing
other restrictions/regulations
schemes
Source: (Patier, 2005), (Browne et al., 2005), (Anderson et al., 2005),
(Taniguchi et al., 2003)
© Association for European Transport and contributors 2008
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4.2
Measures for Further Testing
After the identification of a suitable list of policy initiatives to consider, the
challenge was to adapt and apply the existing impact results to the case of
London in order to produce sensible policy tests. The lack of data at national
and London levels concerning, for example, the amount of traffic for the
different sub-sectors (like construction) was a particular obstacle. Also, the
lack of adequate information on privately owned vans made this task
complicated.
For these reasons broad assumptions were made about the potential
penetration of the policy initiatives of interest on the total freight traffic in
London.
The following subsections details the assumptions of six policy initiatives
which were selected for inclusion in this paper.
Promotion of Low Emission Vehicles
The promotion of the purchase and use of low or no emissions vehicles is an
important policy initiative which could have a considerable potential in
reducing CO2 emissions from freight vehicles. At the UK level, for example,
Banister and Hickman (2006) suggest that the improved carbon efficiency of
freight vehicles has the potential to save from 3.2 (25% reduction from the
base 2000) to 6.4 (50% reduction) million tones by 2030.
To our knowledge, there are no studies which provide regional or national
forecasts on the likely penetration of low and no emission vehicles in the
future freight fleet and the likely traffic to be allocated to them (some broad
figures are reported in Selwood and Seymour, 2001), the following
assumptions were made in order to explore the potential effect of this policy
initiative:
• low emission vehicles are defined as vehicles that can achieve
(through various technical specifications and/or using alternative fuels)
carbon saving of 20%,
• no emission vehicles are defined as vehicles whose CO2 emissions at
the tailpipe is zero,
• the penetration of low emission vehicles in London’s HGVs traffic is set
as 35% of total in 2025 and 75% in 2050,
• in the case of LGVs, 20% of traffic in 2025 is allocated to no emission
vehicles, while the figure for 2050 is 60%.
• of the remaining LGV traffic in 2025, 25% is allocated to low emission
vans. In 2050, the corresponding figure is 75%
These are optimistic assumptions and depend on technological improvements
taking place and offering reliability standards and costs that lead to rapid
diffusion through the fleet.
Drivers’ Training
It is well documented in the literature that a more efficient training of freight
vehicles’ drivers and increased monitoring of their performances can achieve
© Association for European Transport and contributors 2008
9
considerable savings in CO2 emissions (McKinnon, 2007, DfT, 2007b, DfT,
2007a). In accordance with the literature, it was assumed that schemes
improving drivers’ training and performance could achieve an average 10%
reduction in CO2 emission. This was applied to our projections according to
the following assumptions:
•
•
savings are allocated to 10% of HGV traffic in 2010, 30% in 2015, 60%
in 2025 and 100% in 2050,
the same assumption is made for LGV, but in this case are applied only
to 75% of the fleet. This was done as the van sector, because of the
wider range of usage and the high proportion of privately-owned vans
(ONS, 2003, Browne et al., 2004) is less regulated and driving training
schemes are therefore likely to be adopted to a lesser extent.
Construction Consolidation Centres
Evidence of the benefit of these centres is available in the literature as there
are currently two centres operating in London, and several more are likely to
be made operational in the future to serve the increasing number of
construction sites (TfL, 2007). The existing centres have achieved
considerable savings in both traffic and CO2 emissions, up to 75% for the
relevant traffic directed to the construction sites served by the centre (Browne
et al., 2007).
It is more difficult, however, to quantify the potential savings from these
centres on total traffic as no precise information on the proportion of traffic
relative to the different sectors of the economy is available. For these reasons
the following simple assumptions were made in order to test the potential of
these centres:
•
•
•
construction consolidation centres are assumed to generate 50%
saving with respect to the situation in which construction traffic vehicles
do not use a centre,
the saving figure indicated above is applied to 15% of London total
HGV traffic in 2025 and 25% in 2050 (these figures broadly take into
consideration the increase in construction traffic both in absolute and
relative terms as a consequence of the projected increase in the
number of construction sites in London (TfL, 2007))
in the case of vans, which are assumed to be less likely to make an
extensive use of these sites, the corresponding figures are 7.5% and
15%, for 2025 and 2050, respectively.
Urban Distribution Centres
These centres have been experimented in various cities across Europe and
have been found to have potential to generate considerable CO2 emissions
reduction (up to 60%) in congested urban areas (Dablanc, 2007, Patier,
2005). In combination with Collection/Delivery Points, these centres have
been implemented in order to accommodate the increased delivery traffic,
which has been generated, among other factors, by the growing success of
on-line commerce (Cairns, 2005, Taniguchi and Kakimoto, 2003).
© Association for European Transport and contributors 2008
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Various sources at national (ONS, 2003, ONS, 2004, ONS, 2006) and London
(TfL, 2008a, Browne et al., 2004) levels were consulted in order to estimate
the likely proportion of delivery traffic in London which could potentially
employ these centres but no precise figures could be found. Information from
these sources were nonetheless used to build the following broad
assumptions for the testing of the impact of this initiative:
•
•
•
urban distribution centres were assumed to be capable of generating a
25% saving in the relevant delivery traffic
this saving figure was applied to 7.5% of HGV traffic in 2025 and 15%
in 2050
in the case of LGV, the figures for 2025 and 2050 were 20% and 35%,
respectively (this reflected the higher usage of vans, rather than lorries,
for deliveries within urban areas).
Vehicle Reception Points
The experimentation of Vehicle Reception Points in France achieved
considerable savings in traffic and up to 80% reduction in CO2 emissions for
the operators using them (Patier, 2007). The following assumptions were
made in order to test the potential of these centres to achieve CO2 emission
savings in London:
•
•
•
vehicle reception points were assumed to generate a 15% saving in
delivery traffic in the relevant area,
in the case of HGVs, saving figures were assumed to apply to 2.5% of
traffic in 2050 and to 5% in 2050,
in the case of LGVs, the corresponding figures for 2025 and 2050 were
10% and 25%, respectively.
Relaxing delivery times
The last initiative treated in this paper is the relaxation of restrictions on
delivery time/windows. This initiative has been treated in the literature (Yannis
et al., 2006, Anderson et al., 2005, Holguin-Veras, 2007) and it appears that
under certain conditions relaxing restrictions and, in particular, allowing goods
to be delivered at night, could achieve considerable saving in both traffic and
emissions. The following assumptions were made in order to test the
potential of this policy initiatives in London:
•
•
5.
the relaxation of delivery times could achieve savings in traffic of up to
15% if implemented
these savings could apply to 15% of total freight traffic in London in
2025, and to 30% in 2050 (for both HGVs and LGVs)
POLICY IMPACTS
This section reports on results of the policy impact analysis wich was carried
out according to the assumptions discussed in the previous section. It is
important to note that the assumptions made remain highly debatable and
were adopted in order to assess the potential of the single initiatives and test
© Association for European Transport and contributors 2008
11
‘what would happen if’ rather than provide a precise measure of the impact of
the single policy in London.
The following table reports potential impact figures derived from the literature
analysis and the assumptions that were made on five policy initiatives which
were selected for inclusion in this paper.
Results are summarised in the Table 5 where they are compared with the
baseline projections and the 2005 emissions figures which were presented
previously in Table 2.
Table 5. Impact results
Policy
Baseline
Low
Emissions
Vehicles
Drivers’
Training
Construction
Consolidation
Centres
Urban
Distribution
Centres
Vehicle
Reception
Points
Relaxing
Delivery
Times
CO2
emissions
2025
%
change
from
baseline
2572156
%
change
from
2005
32.2
CO2
emissions
2050
%
change
from
baseline
4073101
%
change
from
2005
109.4
2147451
-16.5
10.4
2071523
-49.1
6.5
2456409
-4.5
26.3
3767618
-7.5
93.7
2417261
-6.0
24.3
3438529
-15.6
85.6
2478955
-3.6
27.5
3660207
-10.1
88.2
2546320
-1.0
31.2
3929435
-3.5
102.0
2487533
-3.3
27.9
3790067
-6.9
94.9
Table 5 shows that no single measure leads to a fall in emissions relative to
2005 levels. However, the optimistic vehicle efficiency and technology
assumptions almost completely offset the emissions growth in the baseline –
with emissions up only 6.5% by 2050 as opposed to over 100% in the
baseline.
There is potential for Construction Consolidation Centres to help deliver
savings in terms of CO2 emissions for construction traffic, and this is borne out
by the performance to date of two centres that recently commenced operation
in London (TfL, 2007). On the other hand, these centres, as well as measures
aiming at increasing the share of low emission vehicles in London require a
considerable infrastructural effort which has to be taken into consideration in
discussing their potential. Those measures targeting delivery traffic have
potential to help reducing freight emissions, however, their impact have to be
able to offset the projected increased in delivery traffic as a result of the
growing success of online commerce (Taniguchi and Kakimoto, 2003, Esser
and Kurte, 2005, Cairns, 2005).
© Association for European Transport and contributors 2008
12
Each measure has been assessed separately and it is difficult to draw
conclusions on additionality. Clearly if vehicles emit less CO2 per kilometre the
savings from measures to reduce vehicle kilometres or to encourage more
energy efficient driving practices will deliver lower savings than are shown
here. However, there are a number of reasons for avoiding dependence on
technological solutions:
•
•
•
•
Firstly, there is a need to start to reduce emissions now and some of
these savings could be delivered within a short timeframe and would
deliver potentially significant savings sooner rather than later.
Secondly, technological gains of the extent assumed are highly
uncertain and may not occur even in the longer run.
Thirdly, the other measures here might help to avoid further growth in
emissions, as technology does not appear to be able to reduce
emissions in the presence of traffic growth. It is therefore important to
use all available measures and to work towards changing behaviours.
Fourthly, zero emission vehicles would be dependent on the total
decarbonisation and indeed expansion of the energy supply sector.
These results may be compared with both the London Freight Plan (TfL,
2008b) and preliminary consultation with freight experts and this comparison
is shown in Table 6.
Direct comparisons with the Freight Plan for all polices is not possible as
assumptions are different and some initiatives are grouped together.
However, it can be observed that the plan generally reports less optimistic
impact figures. This is particularly the case for Low Emission Vehicles and for
the relaxation of delivery times. The figures for driver training are more
optimistic than ours. The plan is clearly also reflective of policies that are
under the influence of TfL/ GLA and what is politically feasible (the plan
reports two impact figures for each policy, according to two possible levels of
collaboration, high or low, between operators, users and local authorities),
whereas this research is looking at the maximum possible policy impacts.
© Association for European Transport and contributors 2008
13
Table 6. Comparison of Emissions Projections
Measure
Impact (% change from baseline)
Our calculations
Low Emissions
Vehicles3
Drivers’ Training4
London Freight Plan1
2025
-16.5
2050
-49.1
2025
-11.7
-4.5
-7.5
-11.3
2050
n.a
Experts
Consultation2
2025
2050
-20/50
-30/80
n.a
-3/30
-5/35
Construction
-6.0
-15.6
-5.5 n.a
-1/15
-1/15
Consolidation
Centres
Urban Distribution
-3.6
-10.1
n.a n.a
n.a.
n.a.
Centres
Vehicle Reception
-1.0
-3.5
n.a n.a
-1/10
-1/10
Points
Relaxing Delivery
-3.3
-6.9
-0.4 n.a
0/-40
0/-45
Times
Source: Own calculations and (TfL, 2008b)
1
Figures reported in this table are the most optimistic ones included in the plan, those relying
on a high degree of collaboration within the freight transport sector.
2
This column reports ranges
3
Voluntary adoption of Low Emission Vehicles in the London Freight Plan
4
Fleet efficiency in the London Freight Plan
In order to decrease the degrees of uncertainty of both the impact measures
and penetration assumption an exploratory Delphi questionnaire was
designed in order to gather information from experts in freight and
environmental matters about their expectations over the likely impact of
certain policies on London. Preliminary consultation with a small number,
seven, of freight experts revealed large ranges for drivers’ training and
relaxing delivery time especially. This indicated a lack of general consensus
about the potential of these two initiatives. In the case of low emissions
vehicles most experts considered 20% and 30% potential savings for 2025
and 2050 respectively (only one expert indicated higher figures). In the case
of Construction Consolidation centres most experts indicated a figure of
around 3% for both 2025 and 2050 apparently revealing a lower confidence in
the potential of these centres to reduce the growth in construction traffic.
Finally, It is important to note that no assumptions were made, at this stage of
the research, about the way to implement the single policy initiatives.
6. CONCLUSIONS
This paper has briefly analysed the historical, current and future situations in
terms freight transport sector in London, focusing on its road movements
activities and CO2 emissions. Key conclusions are:
(1)
From 1996 to 2005 emissions from HGVs and LGVs in London
increased by around 18%.
© Association for European Transport and contributors 2008
14
(2)
If the growth in freight traffic continues, and in the absence of further
policy intervention these CO2 emissions may increase further by 113% by
2050.
(3)
A range of potential policy interventions are available for reducing CO2
emissions from freight transport in London.
(4)
However, policy tests suggest that even with optimistic assumptions
single policy interventions cannot deliver absolute reductions from 2005 levels
only slower growth.
(5)
The most effective single development would be through the entry and
success of low and no carbon vehicles into the fleet. Under our assumptions
emissions growth could be held to 6% to 2050.
(6)
However, reliance on technical developments to deliver emissions
savings is hugely risky as such vehicles may not enter the fleet and zero
carbon vehicles would be dependant on a larger and decarbonised energy
sector.
(7)
Even if very low and no carbon vehicles achieve significant fleet
penetration by 2050, emissions may still increase in the presence of trend
traffic growth.
(8)
Interventions that influence behaviour are therefore critical to the
success of carbon reduction measures in the freight sector as in the
passenger sector.
(9)
This will require very high levels of collaboration between planners and
operators. The London Freight Plan represents a significant step forward in
achieving a collaborative approach and developing the policies required.
Acknowledgements
The authors would like to thank Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
for supporting this research as well as Bashir Khan (TfL) and Julian Allen
(University of Westminster) for providing data and information about policies.
The authors would also like to thank the experts who completed our
questionnaire. Needless to say the paper represents the views of the authors
alone and any errors or omissions are likewise ours alone.
Notes
1The Greater London are comprises a surface of around 1,600 km2 and a population of around 7,500
millions (GLA, 2008).
2
These are the amount of pollutant (grams) emitted from a specific type of vehicle, at a given speed, per
km travelled (AEA, 2005).
3
For example, Euro I LGVs are expected to cease their contribution to traffic beginning from 2013, and
in 2025 all vans are going to be Euro IV powered (AEA, 2007).
© Association for European Transport and contributors 2008
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