ASSESSMENT OF
CANADA’S LIGHT TIGHT
OIL RESOURCES
Part 1 – Oil in Place
www.petrelrob.com
Worldwide Petroleum Consulting
Definitions
• “Light” oil – API gravity > 30o
• “Tight” oil – Reservoir cannot produce at
economic rates from conventional vertical
wellbores
• Horizontal drilling and multi-stage hydraulic
fracturing required for economic production
• Reservoirs include shales as well as tight
sandstones and carbonates
Data Sources
• Federal agencies (GSC / NEB)
• Provincial agencies (AGS)
• U.S. Energy Information Administration
• Technical literature
• Corporate reports
Oil Resource Calculations
• Conventional plays – statistical techniques, using
exploration play definition and analysis of existing pool size
distribution
• GSC - PETRIMES
• NEB - @Risk
• Unconventional plays are generally continuously distributed
– not in pools
• Not well suited to conventional analysis
• Oil-in-place volumes based on probabilistic analysis of
reservoir parameters are most credible
• U.S. EIA, Alberta Geological Survey, National Energy Board
• These are major projects, and only a few exist
• Simple, deterministic volumetric estimates are more
commonly available (e.g., analyst reports)
Canadian Petroleum Basins
Northern
Interior Platform
East Coast
Offshore
Western
Intermontane
Western Canada
Sedimentary Basin
Interior
Cratonic
Eastern
Cratonic Basins
GSC Open File 4673
Light Tight Oil Play Classification
• Established Plays
• Regionally extensive unconventional plays
• Significant exploration and development activity
• All are in Western Canada Sedimentary Basin
• Established / Isolated Plays
• As above, areal extent and resource potential are limited
• Emerging Plays
• Proven tight oil potential, limited production history
• Potential Plays
• Oil in place resources likely, but no production history
Established Play
Slave Point
Fringing Reef Complex
Swan Hills / Slave Point
(Devonian)
Peace River Arch
Waterways
Shale Basin
• Regionally extensive carbonate
banks and platforms, fringing
emergent landmasses
• Conventional production from
reefal buildups
Swan Hills
Platform
• Waterways shale basin forms
regional stratigraphic trap
Established Play
Slave Point
Fringing Reef Complex
Swan Hills / Slave Point
(Devonian)
Peace River Arch
Waterways
Shale Basin
• No systematic assessment of
tight oil in place
• Existing estimates:
Swan Hills
Platform
• 1190 e6m3 (7.5 BBO) for entire
system (CIBC, 2011)
• 397 e6m3 (2.5 BBO) for
undeveloped Swan Hills platform
lands (BMO, 2011)
• Significant reserve additions
associated with tight
development (Carson Creek,
Judy Creek)
Bakken
(Devonian / Carboniferous)
Established Play
• Tight silt / sandstone
encased in organicrich shales, deposited
in extensive open
seaway
• Regional basincentred accumulation,
flanked by
conventional traps
• Intensive development
in U.S. and Canada
Bakken
(Devonian / Carboniferous)
Established Play
• 3580 e6m3 (22.5 BBO)
for Canada (EIA)
• Where >30 ft thick
• Shale parameters
• 795 e6m3 (5 BBO)
(CIBC, 2011)
• 731 e6m3 (4.6 BBO)
(Crescent Point, 2011)
• 36 e6m3 (0.25 BBO)
public company P+P
reserves (NEB, 2011)
Spearfish
(Jurassic)
Established Play
• Sandstone / siltstone red
beds, variably cemented
by evaporites
• Widespread floodplain to
marginal marine, lying on
profound unconformity
• Conventional strat traps
locally, but hz drilling and
multi-frac completions
allow access to
compartmentalized lowquality reservoir
Spearfish
(Jurassic)
Established Play
• Volumetric upside
constrained to large,
discrete stratigraphic
traps
• 397 e6m3 (2.5 BBO)
(CIBC, 2011)
• 139 e6m3 (0.88 BBO)
(Penn West, on company
lands)
Montney
(Triassic)
Established Play
AB
BC
• Tight siltstone, deposited in
open marine setting along
western flank of craton
• Downdip, overpressured gas
and liquids are regionally
prospective, with oil along
updip margin
• Horizontal / multi-frac wells
also used to develop lowquality reservoir in subcrop
edge traps
BC OGC
Montney Play Atlas
• Improved oil recoveries
compared to vertical wells
• Extensive and intensive
development
Rokosh et al., 2012
Established Play
Montney
Oil in Place
• NEB (2013) probabilistic values
• P50: 22484 e6m3 (141.5 BBO)
• P10: 36113 e6m3 (227 BBO)
• P90: 12865 e6m3 (80.9 BBO)
• Dominated by Alberta volumes
(Rokosh et al., 2012)
• These calculations require
calibration with test results – a
lot of wet sandstones in areas
with largest calculated oil
volumes
Established Play
Lower Shaunavon
(Jurassic)
• Tight muddy and fossiliferous
limestone, locally porous and
dolomitized
• Deposited on broad shallow
marine shelf with limited water
circulation and little clastic input
• Discrete structural control on
prospective fairway – oil charge
and fracturing along uplift
Established Play
Lower Shaunavon
(Jurassic)
• No systematic assessment of
tight oil in place
• 684 e6m3 (4.3 BBO) estimated
for entire Shaunavon fairway
(Crescent Point, 2014)
Viking
(Cretaceous)
Established Play
Reinson et al., 1994
• Thinly-bedded conventionalquality sandstones
interbedded with siltstone and
shale, producing poor overall
reservoir quality
• Deposited in shallow marine
cratonic seaway
Tight Oil
Fairway
Conventional Viking
Oil Pools
• Horizontal / multi-frac wells
access multiple layers and
compartments to recover
economic volumes of oil
Viking
(Cretaceous)
Established Play
Reinson et al., 1994
• No systematic volumetric
assessments – play fairway is
loosely defined
• 795 e6m3 (5 BBO) cited by
CIBC (2011), but basis of
calculation unclear
Tight Oil
Fairway
Conventional Viking
Oil Pools
• Corporate presentations
indicate in-place volumes of
22 to 59 e6m3 (0.14-0.37 BBO)
on township-scale properties
Established Play
Cardium
(Cretaceous)
• Tight sandstones, deposited in
shallow marine / shoreline
settings
• Large oil volumes recovered from
conventional vertical wells, but
unconventional potential lies in
three main settings:
• Cardium “fringe / halo” – tighter
sandstones deposited in deeper
water settings around main
pools
• Broad sand sheets with little
conventional reservoir rock
• Poorer reservoir within existing
pools
Established Play
Cardium
(Cretaceous)
• NEB (2011):
• 1678 e6m3 (10.6 BBO) for entire
Cardium
• 159 – 477 e6m3 (1-3 BBO) for fringe /
halo accumulations
• Corporate estimates generally
2.5 - 6 MMBOIP per section on
their prospective lands
• Significant reserve additions
associated with tight
development (Brazeau,
Garrington, Harmattan, Lochend,
Pembina)
Established Isolated Plays
• Charlie Lake (Upper Triassic)
• Sub-regional uppermost Charlie Lake (“Worsley Mbr”)
• Variably-cemented, marginal marine sandstones, capped
and sealed beneath post-Triassic unconformity
• Systematic horizontal / multi-frac development in
northwestern Alberta
• Basal Belly River (Upper Cretaceous)
• Deltaic / shoreface sandstones deposited in multiple cycles
• Oil-charged in west-central Alberta, existing conventional
development from stratigraphic traps
• Systematic horizontal / multi-frac development of marginal
sands
Emerging Play
Duvernay
(Devonian)
• Organic-rich shale with interbedded
calcareous shale / limestone
• Deposited in deep marine anoxic
basin
• Major source rock with clearlydefined areas of oil- and gasgenerative capacity
Switzer et al, 1994
• Industry currently testing limits of
liquids-rich gas and oil production
Rokosh et al, 2012
Emerging Play
Duvernay
Oil in Place
• Rokosh et al (2012)
probabilistic values
• P50: 9803 e6m3 (61.7 BBO)
• P10: 13171 e6m3 (82.9 BBO)
• P90: 7004 e6m3 (44.1 BBO)
• EIA (2013)
• 10620 e6m3 (66.8 BBO)
• Is reservoir energy in updip
oil-bearing areas sufficient to
produce this oil?
“Alberta Bakken”
(Devonian / Carboniferous)
Emerging Play
• Multi-cycle complex of
organic-rich shale, tight
sandstone, and tight
carbonate
• Original play concept
focused on overpressured Exshaw
• Modeled on Bakken
production to east
• Failed to produce
economically
• Now limited production
from lower Banff sands at
Ferguson, and
uppermost Devonian
carbonates to west
• Oil in place estimates
based on old play
model; not valid
Horn River
(Devonian)
Potential Play
• Organic-rich shale with
calcareous and silty intervals
Gross thickness,
Horn River Group
• Deep marine anoxic basin;
northern extension of
Duvernay / Muskwa fairway
• Major source rock with
established oil-generating
capacity
• Industry in early stages of
testing play
• Additional potential in
adjacent Yukon basins
Hayes, 2011
• Large (unquantified) oil
potential
Rokosh et al, 2012
Potential Play
Muskwa
Oil in Place
• Rokosh et al (2012)
probabilistic values
• P50: 18296 e6m3 (115 BBO)
• P10: 25418 e6m3 (160 BBO)
• P90: 11884 e6m3 (74.8 BBO)
• EIA (2013)
• 6740 e6m3 (42.4 BBO)
• EIA applied “risk factor” to
reflect industry’s reluctance to
pursue the play
Other Light Tight Oil Plays
Northern
Interior Platform
East Coast
Offshore
Chinkeh
Western
Intermontane
Nordegg
Second
White Specks
GSC Open File 4673
Ordovician
shales?
Macasty
Light Tight Oil Summary
• Huge oil-in-place potential exists in several plays:
•
•
•
•
8 established
2 established / isolated
3 emerging
5 potential
• Only a few plays have been analyzed systematically
• Play definition, geographic limits, and reservoir parameters
are generally unclear in early stages of exploration and
development
• Oil in place volumetric estimates carry large uncertainties
• Regional analysis must be refined with ground truthing against
both historic and current industry test results
Light Tight Oil Summary
• Defining light tight oil plays depends upon large data sets
• All established plays are in WCSB
• Northern interior platform, cratonic basins, and eastern
onshore and offshore basins have light tight oil potential, but
we don’t have sufficient data to define the plays
• Light tight oil potential can be identified conceptually in
many other formations and basins, based on our regional
knowledge of petroleum systems