Low Carbon Grid Study
WCEA
San Francisco, CA
January 8, 2016
Low Carbon Grid Study
Carbon Emission Trajectories
100
90
Electric sector emissions (MMT)
80
70
60
CARB emissions trajectory to 2050
CARB emissions
trajectory to 2050
Baseline
Case
results
Baseline Case results
Target
Case results
TargetGHG
CaseEnhanced
Target-Conventional
Accelerated Case results (Phase I)
Accelerated
Case (Phase I)
55% RE, BAU Case results
50
40
30
20
10
0
2010
2020
2030
Year
2040
2050
Low Carbon Grid Study
Curtailment of Renewable Energy
A: 55% renewables, conventional flexibility
case:
−
−
−
Solar PV dominates new procurement
No additional bulk storage
Continuation of today’s
operation policies
B: 55% renewables, enhanced flexibility
case:
−
−
−
−
Balanced portfolio
Additional bulk storage
Economically rational imports and exports
Renewables allowed to provide essential
reliability services and flexibility
Difference in Cases: B minus A
CA Cost savings: $1.1 B/yr
CA Carbon saved: 5 MMT/year
Rest of WECC carbon saved: 2.5MMT/yr
Low Carbon Grid Study
Results Summary
Case
Net Cost
(% of RevReq)
CA Carbon
(MMT/yr)
RE Curtailment
(%)
Diverse/Enhanced
0.6%
41.1
0.2%
High Solar/Enhanced
2.2%
42.2
0.5%
Diverse/Conventional
2.3%
45.0
4.2%
High Solar/Conventional 4.1%
46.8
9.7%
Low Carbon Grid Study
Steepest Ramp Day Dispatch (Winter)
Feb 8th: Target- Enhanced
Feb 8th: High Solar- Conventional
30,000
30,000
25,000
25,000
Storage
Storage
20,000
20,000
DR,ScheduledEV
DR,ScheduledEV
15,000
PhysicalImports
CAGasCommit
10,000
MW
MW
15,000
PhysicalImports
CAGasCommit
10,000
CAGasGen
CAGasGen
5,000
HydroGen
NetLoad
0
4
8
12
16
20
5,000
HydroGen
NetLoad
-
24
0
5
10
15
NetLoadBeforeCurtailment
(5,000)
(10,000)
(5,000)
Hour
(10,000)
Hour
20
25
NetLoadBeforeCurtailm
ent
Low Carbon Grid Study
Steepest Ramp Day (Winter)
30,000
30,000
25,000
25,000
20,000
20,000
15,000
15,000
10,000
10,000
MW
MW
Net Load: Load - Renewables
5,000
-
5,000
-
0
5
10
15
20
25
0
(5,000)
(5,000)
(10,000)
(10,000)
(15,000)
(15,000)
(20,000)
Hour
Target- Enhanced
(20,000)
5
10
15
Hour
High Solar- Conventional
20
25
Low Carbon Grid Study
Steepest Ramp Day (Winter)
30,000
30,000
25,000
25,000
20,000
20,000
15,000
15,000
10,000
10,000
MW
MW
Net Load - Imports
5,000
-
5,000
-
0
5
10
15
20
25
0
(5,000)
(5,000)
(10,000)
(10,000)
(15,000)
(15,000)
(20,000)
Hour
Target- Enhanced
(20,000)
5
10
15
Hour
High Solar- Conventional
20
25
Low Carbon Grid Study
Steepest Ramp Day (Winter)
30,000
30,000
25,000
25,000
20,000
20,000
15,000
15,000
10,000
10,000
MW
MW
Net Load – Imports - Storage
5,000
-
5,000
-
0
5
10
15
20
25
0
(5,000)
(5,000)
(10,000)
(10,000)
(15,000)
(15,000)
(20,000)
Hour
Target- Enhanced
(20,000)
5
10
15
Hour
High Solar- Conventional
20
25
Low Carbon Grid Study
Steepest Ramp Day (Winter)
30,000
30,000
25,000
25,000
20,000
20,000
15,000
15,000
10,000
10,000
MW
MW
Net Load – Imports – Storage - DR
5,000
-
5,000
-
0
5
10
15
20
25
0
(5,000)
(5,000)
(10,000)
(10,000)
(15,000)
(15,000)
(20,000)
Hour
Target- Enhanced
(20,000)
5
10
15
Hour
High Solar- Conventional
20
25
Low Carbon Grid Study
Steepest Ramp Day (Winter)
30,000
30,000
25,000
25,000
20,000
20,000
15,000
15,000
10,000
10,000
MW
MW
Net Load – Imports – Storage – DR- Hydro
5,000
-
5,000
-
0
5
10
15
20
25
0
(5,000)
(5,000)
(10,000)
(10,000)
(15,000)
(15,000)
(20,000)
Hour
Target- Enhanced
(20,000)
5
10
15
Hour
High Solar- Conventional
20
25
Low Carbon Grid Study
Steepest Ramp Day (Winter)
30,000
30,000
25,000
25,000
20,000
20,000
15,000
15,000
10,000
10,000
MW
MW
Curtailment:
Net Load – Imports – Storage – DR – Hydro - Gas
5,000
-
5,000
-
0
5
10
15
20
25
0
(5,000)
(5,000)
(10,000)
(10,000)
(15,000)
(15,000)
(20,000)
Hour
Target- Enhanced
(20,000)
5
10
15
Hour
High Solar- Conventional
20
25