MEMO To: Tom Peterson From: Bill Dougherty Date: 25 January 2014 RE: Final of the integration of electric demand and supply cost curve results for Oregon This memo provides both an overview of the methodological approach for the integration of electricity demand and supply options, as well as the application of that methodology to develop a final tabular summary of integrated cost curve results for the state of Oregon. The scope of work is based on the Terms of Reference as shown in Annex 1. Background In July 2012, the Center for Climate Strategies (CCS) submitted a report (hereafter the "Report") to the Oregon Department of Energy (ODOE) that provided sector-specific marginal abatement cost curves for carbon dioxide-equivalent (CO2e) mitigation measures for Oregon (OR). Table 1 summarizes the sectors considered and the number of major measures analyzed in each sector. Table 1: Framework for the OR marginal abatement cost curve project # 1 2 3 4 Total GHG-emitting Sector Residential, Commercial, and Industrial (RCI) Power supply (PS) Agriculture, forestry, and Waste (AFW) Transportation and Land Use (TLU) # of GHG mitigation measures analyzed 136 26 13 37 212 Each major GHG mitigation measure in the demand sectors (i.e., RCI, AFW, and TLU) was analyzed relative to three (3) plausible future scenarios that governed the penetration levels of each measure, and hence their potential and associated costs for achieving future GHG emission reductions. A summary of the scenario storylines is provided in Table 2. Table 2: Demand-side scenario framework for previous OR cost curve project # 1 2 3 Scenario Name Modest Effort, Continued State and Federal Policies Moderate Increase in Federal Action Moderate Increase in Federal Action plus more State Action Scenario Description Represents continuation of state & federal policies and action at current levels Represents increased Federal action, relative to Scenario 1 (i.e., the level of state effort remains the same as in Scenario 1). Represents moderate increase in both Federal and State programs, relative to Scenario 1 and Scenario 2. In addition, "foundational macroeconomic modeling" was conducted to explore the 1800 K Street, NW, Suite 714, Washington, DC 20006 (202) 293-4596 office, (202) 540-9122 fax www.climatestrategies.us IMPROVING OUR ECONOMY, ENVIRONMENT AND ENERGY SYSTEMS CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo macroeconomic impacts (i.e., job creation, gross state product) of each of the scenarios shown in Table 2 using the outputs of the GHG marginal abatement cost curve analysis. Moreover, this modeling considered the macroeconomic impact of the OR Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) and a more aggressive RPS, both of which were relative to the accepted OR Business-as-usual (BAU) capacity expansion plan. Motivation for the current assignment It is important to note that the scenarios described in Table 2 could not be applied to GHG mitigation measures in the power supply sector absent the integration of electricity demand and electricity supply. Hence, all 26 GHG measures in the PS sector were analyzed in the original cost curve analysis relative to a single reference technology (i.e., the likely power generation source that would be displaced), which was assumed to be highefficiency natural gas combined cycle technology. Since the results for all 26 PS GHG mitigation options were identical in the tabular cost curves provided in the Report for Scenarios 1, 2, and 3, the fundamental motivation for this assignment is to show how PS results would change when PS measures are integrated the electric demand reductions in Scenarios 1, 2, and 3. Modeling electric supply system expansion incorporating demand-side reductions can show how PS results would change. Scenario framework To undertake an integration analysis of demand and supply GHG mitigation options, two types of input scenarios are required. One type of input scenario is demand-based, and corresponds to the three scenarios shown previously in Table 2. The other type of input scenario is supply-based and corresponds to the penetration of each eligible PS GHG mitigation option. Given the existing OR Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) under ORS 469A, this policy has been identified by the OR Department of Energy (ORDOE) as the basis by which to establish a penetration scenario for PS GHG mitigation options. As sensitivity, the ORDOE identified an additional input scenario, a more aggressive RPS policy. Table 3 summarizes the key assumptions underlying both RPS scenarios. Table 3: Supply-side scenario framework for current OR cost curve analysis Scenario # Name Standard 1 RPS Aggressive 2 RPS Required renewable generation share of retail electricity sales (%) from 2015 to 2019 from 2020 to 2025 from 2025 to 2035 Large Medium Small Large Medium Small Large Medium Small utilities utilities utilities utilities utilities utilities utilities utilities utilities 15 0 0 20 0 0 25 10 5 20 0 0 25 0 0 30 15 10 To conduct the integration analysis, all combinations of the demand- and supply-side scenarios in Tables 2 and 3 were considered. That is, six (6) integration scenarios were analyzed, as shown in Table 4. 2 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo Technology types Two major types of technologies are involved. One major type of technology is focused on the demand side and consists of the 136 RCI options, the cost and performance characteristics of which have already been used to produce the results in the Report. As per discussions with ORDOE, no other technologies from other demand side sectors were considered. It is important to note that the sum of the GHG reductions associated with RCI options is net of any overlaps and synergies between the options. It is also important to note that GHG reductions correspond to both electricity and natural gas savings, while the demand-supply integration analysis necessarily corresponds to electricity savings only. Table 4: Scenario framework for the integration analysis Input scenarios Electricity demand Electricity supply # Name # Name Modest Effort, Continued 1 1 Standard RPS State and Federal Policies Moderate Increase in Federal 2 1 Standard RPS Action 3 Moderate Increase in Federal Action plus more State Action Modest Effort, Continued State and Federal Policies Moderate Increase in Federal 2 Action 1 3 Moderate Increase in Federal Action plus more State Action # 1 2 1 Standard RPS 3 2 Aggressive RPS 4 2 Aggressive RPS 5 2 Aggressive RPS 6 Integration Scenarios Name Modest Effort, Continued State and Federal Policies, integrated with the Standard RPS Moderate Increase in Federal Action, integrated with the Standard RPS Moderate Increase in Federal Action plus more State Action, integrated with the Standard RPS Modest Effort, Continued State and Federal Policies, integrated with the Aggressive RPS Moderate Increase in Federal Action, integrated with the Aggressive RPS Moderate Increase in Federal Action plus more State Action, integrated with the Aggressive RPS The other major type of technology is focused on the supply side and consists of a subset of the 26 PS options that are eligible under the OR RPS. Eligible RPS resources, as defined in OR House Bill 3649 and OR House Bill 3674, include biomass, geothermal, hydropower, ocean thermal, solar, tidal, wave, wind and hydrogen (if produced from any of these sources). There are eighteen (18) eligible PS options that are applicable to the integration analysis. These options are indicated in Table 5, using the same PS option identifiers as previously used in the Report. The cost and performance characteristics of each of the 18 eligible technologies have also been previously established in the course of preparing the Report. The total number of GHG mitigation measures for both PS and RCI is therefore 154 (i.e., 18 eligible PS options plus 136 RCI measures). Methodological approach The approach for the integration analysis involves a basic 3-step process, as described in the bullets below. 1. Benchmarking. This involves conducting separate integration analyses relative to the PS Business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. These analyses apply the integrated cost curve model developed for this current assignment to the previous cost and performance assumptions used in the Report (i.e., Annex A for PS; Annex B for RCI in the Report) in order to directly compare results and establish that the model is adequately 3 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo Table 5: Eligible renewable generation technologies under the RPS scenarios # PS-1 PS-2 PS-3 PS-4 PS-5 PS-6 PS-7 PS-8 PS-9 PS-10 PS-11 PS-12 PS-13 PS-14 PS-15 PS-16 PS-17 PS-18 PS Option Name Hydropower, New projects Hydropower, Conventional hydro upgrades in OR Wastewater treatment gas, Reciprocating engines Landfill gas, Reciprocating engine Animal manure, Reciprocating engine Woody residues, Steam-electric - brownfield Woody residues, Steam-electric - greenfield Geothermal, Binary hydrothermal Geothermal, Enhanced Geothermal Tidal current, Water current turbines Wave, Various buoy & overtopping devices Offshore Wind, Floating WTG Solar, Utility-scale Photovoltaic arrays Solar (Nevada), Parabolic trough Wind (in OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Alberta to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Montana to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Wyoming to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Renewable resource Hydropower Hydropower MSW (biogenic) Landfill gas MSW (biogenic) Biomass Biomass Geothermal Geothermal Tidal current Wave Wind-offshore Solar PV Solar CSP Wind-onshore Wind-onshore Wind-onshore Wind-onshore benchmarked. This involves the development and analysis of five (5) benchmarking scenarios, as described in Table 6. Where original RCI and PS assumptions differ, the original PS assumptions are assumed. The sole differing parameter is electric transmission and distribution (T&D) losses, which were assumed to 5.71% in all years in the integration analysis instead of 5.70% as used in the original RCI analysis. For PS, the least cost expansion-modeling framework was updated and improved to better reflect for the lumpiness of new renewable generation capacity. A comparison of grand summary results for each of the relevant scenario is shown in Table 7. For RCI, the results show the difference between the integration modeling results and the previous reported results to be small, between -1% and 4%, with the difference explained by the change in T&D loss rate and the fact that natural gas savings were included in the original analysis (i.e., totals for original electricity and natural gas savings will always differ from totals for revised electricity and original natural gas savings). For PS, the results show differences, which directly correspond to the improvements in the leastcost expansion plan modeling framework. Large differences, between -59% and -21%, are found in the early portion of the planning period (i.e., through 2022), while the differences through 2035 are smaller, between -1% and 12%. The conclusion of the benchmarking analyses is that the updated benchmarking/integration model is reliable in producing consistent results for all supply and demand scenarios. 4 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo Table 7: Benchmarking results (% difference from previously reported results) Grey-shaded rows: assuming point-of-combustion CO2e emission factors Green-shaded rows: assuming full fuel cycle CO2e emission factors Electric system benchmark scenarios Supply Demand scenario scenario Modest Effort, Continued State and BAU Federal Policies Moderate Increase in Federal Action BAU Moderate Increase in Federal Action plus more State Action BAU 2022 -1% GHG reductions Cumulative 201320132035 2022 2035 -1% -2% -1% NPV 2013- 20132022 2035 0% 0% Costeffectiveness 2013- 20132022 2035 13% 13% -1% -2% -2% -2% 0% 0% 15% 14% 1% -4% 1% -2% 0% 0% -1% 2% 0% -5% 0% -3% 0% 0% 0% 3% 4% -3% 6% 1% 0% 0% -5% -1% 2% -4% 4% -1% 0% 0% -4% 1% BAU Standard RPS -30% 16% -42% -1% -59% 12% -28% 13% -26% 13% -40% -1% -59% 12% -31% 13% BAU Aggressive RPS -35% 23% -27% 1% -39% 3% -16% 1% -30% 20% -22% 2% -39% 3% -21% 0% 2. Least-cost expansion modeling. This involves applying a least-cost approach to establishing the expansion plan for eligible RPS resources through 2035, consistent with RPS scenario annual targets, OR-specific cost/performance characteristics, and renewable resource constraints. The analytical model to establish the least-cost expansion plan had been previously developed to produce foundational macroeconomic modeling results for the RPS in the Report. As noted under the benchmarking approach, the methodology was updated and vetted to be reproduce original results and be capable of modeling the integration of demand side measures and applied to each of the six (6) integration scenarios. Table 6: Benchmarking scenario framework for Step 1 in the integration analysis Demand and supply input Scenarios Sector # Name Modest Effort, Continued State 1 and Federal Policies Moderate Increase in Federal Demand 2 Action Moderate Increase in Federal 3 Action plus more State Action 1 Standard RPS Supply 2 Aggressive RPS BAU benchmarking scenarios for demand and supply # Name Modest Effort, Continued State and Federal Policies, 1 integrated with the PS BAU Scenario Moderate Increase in Federal Action, integrated with 2 the PS BAU Scenario Moderate Increase in Federal Action plus more State 3 Action, integrated with the PS BAU Scenario 4 Standard RPS, integrated with the PS BAU Scenario 5 Aggressive RPS, integrated with the PS BAU Scenario 3. Reporting. This involves preparing tabular cost curve results for each of the six (6) integration scenarios. The reporting format was kept consistent with the format used in the Report. That is, annual GHG emission reductions are reported for the years 2022 and 2035; cumulative GHG emission reductions are reported for the periods 2013-2022 5 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo and 2013-2035; net present value is reported for the periods 2013-2022 and 20132035; and cost effectiveness is reported for the periods 2013-2022 and 2013-2035. Results are reported for both CO2e emission factor types (i.e., point-of-combustion and full fuel cycle). Analytical setup The analytical setup involved the development of a simple spreadsheet model that consists of the following seven (7) worksheets. Overview. This is a brief overview of the spreadsheet model with hyperlinks to other worksheets for easy navigation. START HERE. This is the worksheet where one can identify which of the eleven (11) scenarios (i.e., 5 benchmark scenarios and 6 integration scenarios) to analyze. The worksheet also includes macro that analyzes and reports results for each scenario and CO2e emission factor combination by clicking on a button in the worksheet. Summary. This worksheet provides a summary of the analytical result for all eleven (11) scenarios using point-of-combustion GHG emission factors and for all eleven (11) scenarios using full fuel cycle GHG emission factors. Adjacent to the cells providing overall results are tables summarizing whether default or alternative assumptions were used to generate the results. Running the macro on the START HERE worksheet is the only way to generate these results. The macro has been designed to run on both MAC and PC computers. Assumptions. This worksheet provides a summary of the key assumptions used in the integration analysis. The user has option to enter alternative assumptions in designated cells to explore sensitivity analysis. PS inputs. This worksheet provides a downloading of the final version of the PS spreadsheet used to develop the results that are presented in the Report. The name of that spreadsheet is "FINAL Oregon PS cost curve analysis - combustion e-factors (25 July 2012).xlsx". These results have been entered as values to avoid having external files linked to the integration tool. RCI inputs. This worksheet provides a downloading of the final version of the RCI spreadsheet used to develop the results that are presented in the Report. The name of that spreadsheet is " ODOE-RCI-Options-Final_rev.xlsx". These results have been entered as values to avoid having external files linked to the integration tool. Integration. This worksheet contains the analysis of each of the benchmark and integration scenarios. The initial rows of the worksheet show a roadmap of the results of individual components of the analysis with hyperlinks to these sections for easy navigation. Memo. This worksheet is where a largely unformatted, limited set of charts is presented that provide context for the overall results. Each of the above worksheets is "protected" meaning that one can not change the content of any cell, except those cells where user input is needed. The only user input needed is in 6 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo the START HERE worksheet in the clearly marked cells that identify which scenario is to be analyzed and which type of CO2e emission factor is to be used. Worksheets can be "unprotected" as desired - there is no password. Results Tabular cost curve results for the integration analysis of each of the 154 GHG mitigation options considered for the RCI and PS sectors are presented in annexes to this memo, as outlined in the three leftmost columns in Table 8. In addition, certain PS-specific results are presented in the annexes to this memo in order to highlight the impact of integrating supply and demand on the cost curve results for power supply options. To this end, a limited number of detailed PS-specific results is also presented, as identified in the two rightmost column in Table 8. To show the overall impact of the integration of supply and demand on the total costs and benefits for implementing all RCI and PS GHG mitigation options, an overall grand summary of the results for the integration analysis is presented on a scenario basis in Table 9. The only difference between the results for a given individual scenario is the type of CO2e emission factor assumed. That is, grey-shaded cells for a given individual scenario report results assuming point-of-combustion CO2e emission factors; the green-shaded cells for a given individual scenario report results assuming full fuel cycle CO2e emission factors. Table 8: Detailed results roadmap Supply and demand Integration scenario Modest Effort, Continued State and Federal Policies, integrated with the Standard RPS Moderate Increase in Federal Action, integrated with the Standard RPS Moderate Increase in Federal Action plus more State Action, integrated with the Standard RPS Modest Effort, Continued State and Federal Policies, integrated with the Aggressive RPS Moderate Increase in Federal Action, integrated with the Aggressive RPS Moderate Increase in Federal Action plus more State Action, integrated with the Aggressive RPS CO2e e-factor point-of-combustion full fuel cycle point-of-combustion full fuel cycle point-of-combustion full fuel cycle point-of-combustion full fuel cycle point-of-combustion full fuel cycle point-of-combustion full fuel cycle Annex 2 2a 3 3a 4 4a 5 5a 6 6a 7 7a Supply only Type of result Annex Benchmark & integration scenarios (by CO2e e-factor) Least-cost RPS schedule (Tabular summary) Least-cost RPS schedule (Figures) 8a 8b 9 10 Table 9: Grand summary for integration analysis, all supply & demand measures Grey-shaded rows: assuming point-of-combustion CO2e emission factors Green-shaded rows: assuming full fuel cycle CO2e emission factors Electric system integration scenarios Electricity Demand scenario supply Modest Effort, Standard Continued State and RPS Federal Policies GHG reductions (million tonnes CO2e) Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 2022 2035 3.4 5.4 14.3 73.1 3.9 6.6 17.0 7 88.1 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 $386 $1,716 $386 $1,716 Cost-effectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 201320132022 2035 $27 $23 $23 $19 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo Standard RPS 4.1 6.6 17.4 88.5 $469 $1,775 $27 $20 4.8 8.1 20.7 107.0 $469 $1,775 $23 $17 Standard RPS 6.0 9.9 26.0 130.7 $351 $607 $14 $5 7.0 12.2 30.9 157.6 $351 $607 $11 $4 Aggressive RPS 4.1 6.1 18.3 85.8 $974 $3,237 $53 $38 4.7 7.6 21.2 103.4 $974 $3,237 $46 $31 Moderate Increase in Federal Action Aggressive RPS 4.9 7.2 21.7 101.5 $1,088 $3,191 $50 $31 5.6 8.9 25.1 122.0 $1,088 $3,191 $43 $26 Moderate Increase in Federal Action plus more State Action Aggressive RPS 6.6 10.6 30.2 143.4 $899 $1,929 $30 $13 7.6 13.0 35.3 172.3 $899 $1,929 $25 $11 Moderate Increase in Federal Action Moderate Increase in Federal Action plus more State Action Modest Effort, Continued State and Federal Policies Figure 1: Net generation savings from RCI measures, relative to the BAU Scenario Discussion A number of summary charts are presented in this section to provide context to the twelve (12) sets of integrated cost curve results that are shown in Annexes 2 through 10. Net generation savings from the 136 RCI measures The annual electricity savings associated with the three original demand-side scenarios are shown in Figure 1 for savings of net generation at power plants (shown in Figure 1, at left) and savings of retail electricity sales at the customer meter (shown in Figure 1, at right). The discussion that follows focuses on the net generation savings achieved at power stations due to the RCI measures incorporated into the three original demand-side scenarios. By 2035, electricity savings associated with RCI measures reach 24,074 GWh in the most aggressive demand-side scenario, representing a 35% reduction from BAU levels in that year. This translates into an average annual growth rate for electricity demand of -0.43% per year for the 2010-2035 period. That is, retail electricity use is 4,723 GWh less in 2035 than in the 2010 Base year. For the least aggressive demand side-scenario, electricity savings associated with RCI measures reach 9,800 GWh by 2035. These reductions represent a 15% savings relative to 8 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo BAU levels in that year. This results in a 0.65% per year average annual growth rate for the 2010-2035 period and retail electricity use of 8,158 GWh more in 2035 than in the 2010 Base year. For the demand side-scenario between the least and most aggressive scenario, electricity savings associated with RCI policies reach 13,494 GWh by 2035. These reductions represent a 21% savings relative to BAU levels for that year. This results in a 0.37% per year average annual growth rate for the 2010-2035 period and retail electricity use of 4,463 GWh more in 2035 than in the 2010 Base year. Renewable energy generation Annual renewable energy generation from eligible resources under the OR RPS for the three supply side scenarios (i.e., BAU scenario, standard RPS scenario, and aggressive RPS scenario) is shown in Figure 2. By 2035, renewable electricity generation from eligible resources reaches 13,210 GWh in 2035 in the standard RPS scenario, representing 2.5 times BAU levels in that year. For the aggressive RPS, the increase is 3.1 times BAU levels in 2035. Figure 2: Renewable energy generation under the RPS Over the period 2011-2035, eligible RPS resources in the BAU scenario are mostly (i.e., 63%) qualifying low impact hydro (based on OR 469A.025, sections 5a and 5b) with wind (31%), biomass (5%), geothermal (1%), landfill gas (0.4%), and solar PV (0.02%) comprising the remaining 37% of eligible RPS resources. Notably, existing renewable generation in the BAU scenario satisfies RPS requirements during the period 2011-2014 for each of the RPS scenarios. Annual CO2e emission reductions Annual CO2e emission reductions for each of the eleven (11) scenarios (i.e., 5 benchmark scenarios and 6 integration scenarios) are shown in Figure 3 for point-of-combustion CO2e emission factors. By 2035, annual CO2e emission reductions reach 10.6 million tonnes in 2035 in Scenario #11 (i.e., the most ambitious scenario representing a moderate increase 9 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo in Federal Action plus more State Action, integrated with the Aggressive RPS), resulting in a 40% decrease from annual BAU levels in that year. For the other integration scenarios that include the aggressive RPS, the reductions are 23% and 27%, respectively, relative to BAU levels in 2035. The large spike in annual CO2e emission reductions during the period 2020-2024 in Figure 3 is an artifact related to assumptions regarding the OR electricity generation margin obtained from the 6th Northwest Plan. During the 2020-2024 period, marginal CO2e emission factors are (in units of tCO2e per MWh): 0.37, 0.44, 0.51, 0.58 and 0.65 for the years 2020 through 2024, respectively. These values are significantly higher than the 0.36 marginal CO2e emission factor assumed for the 2025-2035 period. For this latter period, the CO2e marginal emission factor is consistent with mostly natural gas on the margin. In the former period, the CO2e marginal emission factor is consistent with a mix of fossil resources, including substantial levels of coal-fired generation. Hence, the displacement of generation from these power stations due retail electricity savings yields substantially higher CO2e emission reductions. Figure 3: Annual CO2e emission reductions for all scenarios, point-of-combustion CO2e emission factors # 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Name of scenario Standard RPS, integrated with the BAU scenario Aggressive RPS, integrated with the BAU scenario Modest Effort, Continued State and Federal Policies, integrated with the BAU scenario Moderate Increase in Federal Action, integrated with the BAU scenario Moderate Increase in Federal Action plus more State Action, integrated with the BAU scenario Modest Effort, Continued State and Federal Policies, integrated with the Standard RPS Moderate Increase in Federal Action, integrated with the Standard RPS Moderate Increase in Federal Action plus more State Action, integrated with the Standard RPS Modest Effort, Continued State and Federal Policies, integrated with the Aggressive RPS Moderate Increase in Federal Action, integrated with the Aggressive RPS Moderate Increase in Federal Action plus more State Action, integrated with the Aggressive RPS 10 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo Cumulative CO2e emission reductions Cumulative CO2e emission reductions for each of the eleven (11) scenarios (i.e., 5 benchmark scenarios and 6 integration scenarios) are shown in Figure 4 for point-ofcombustion CO2e emission factors. By 2035, cumulative CO2e emission reductions reach 143.4 million tonnes in 2035 in Scenario #11. For the other integration scenarios that include the aggressive RPS, the cumulative CO2e emission reductions are 85.8 for Scenario #9 and 101.5 million tonnes for Scenario #10. When considered on a cumulative basis, as would be expected, CO2e emission reductions do not demonstrate a similar large spike during the 2020-2024 period. Notably, the least aggressive RCI-only scenario in Figure 4 (i.e., Scenario #3: Modest Effort, Continued State and Federal Policies, integrated with the BAU scenario) yields greater cumulative CO2e emission reduction than the most aggressive PS-only scenario (i.e., Scenario #2: Aggressive RPS, integrated with the BAU scenario). The implementation of the demand side measures in Scenario #3 would cumulatively yield a total of 50.3 million tonnes of CO2e reductions, compared to 42.7 million tonnes of CO2e reductions in Scenario #2. Figure 4: Cumulative CO2e emission reductions for all scenarios, point-of-combustion CO2e emission factors # 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Name of scenario Standard RPS, integrated with the BAU scenario Aggressive RPS, integrated with the BAU scenario Modest Effort, Continued State and Federal Policies, integrated with the BAU scenario Moderate Increase in Federal Action, integrated with the BAU scenario Moderate Increase in Federal Action plus more State Action, integrated with the BAU scenario Modest Effort, Continued State and Federal Policies, integrated with the Standard RPS Moderate Increase in Federal Action, integrated with the Standard RPS Moderate Increase in Federal Action plus more State Action, integrated with the Standard RPS Modest Effort, Continued State and Federal Policies, integrated with the Aggressive RPS Moderate Increase in Federal Action, integrated with the Aggressive RPS Moderate Increase in Federal Action plus more State Action, integrated with the Aggressive RPS 11 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo Figure 5: Annual CO2e emissions for all scenarios, point-of-combustion CO2e emission factors Annual CO2e emissions 0 30 1 2 25 3 million tonnes 20 4 5 15 6 7 10 8 5 0 2010 # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 9 10 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 11 Name of scenario BAU scenario Standard RPS, integrated with the BAU scenario Aggressive RPS, integrated with the BAU scenario Modest Effort, Continued State and Federal Policies, integrated with the BAU scenario Moderate Increase in Federal Action, integrated with the BAU scenario Moderate Increase in Federal Action plus more State Action, integrated with the BAU scenario Modest Effort, Continued State and Federal Policies, integrated with the Standard RPS Moderate Increase in Federal Action, integrated with the Standard RPS Moderate Increase in Federal Action plus more State Action, integrated with the Standard RPS Modest Effort, Continued State and Federal Policies, integrated with the Aggressive RPS Moderate Increase in Federal Action, integrated with the Aggressive RPS Moderate Increase in Federal Action plus more State Action, integrated with the Aggressive RPS Annual CO2e emissions Annual CO2e emissions for each of the eleven (11) scenarios (i.e., 5 benchmark scenarios and 6 integration scenarios) are shown in Figure 5 for point-of-combustion CO2e emission factors. By 2035, annual CO2e emissions reach 26.7 million tonnes in 2035 in the BAU Scenario. This level is reduced to 16.1 million tonnes in Scenario #11 (i.e., Moderate Increase in Federal Action plus more State Action, integrated with the Aggressive RPS). For the other integration scenarios that include the aggressive RPS, annual CO2e emissions are 20.6 million tonnes for Scenario #9 and 19.5 million tonnes for Scenario #10. The large dip in annual CO2e emissions during the period 2020-2024 in Figure 5 is the impact from the mix of power stations on the margin during those years, as discussed earlier. That is, the high levels of CO2e emission reductions during the 2020-2024 period result in lower annual emissions for each of the benchmark and integration scenarios during this period. For the BAU scenario, the dip in annual CO2e emissions in 2021 is due to the retirement of the Boardman coal-fired power station at the end of 2020, with its average annual net generation level of 4,126 GWh replaced by high efficiency natural gasfired generation in the period 2021-2035. 12 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo Annual incremental costs Annual incremental costs for the eleven scenarios (i.e., 5 benchmark scenarios and 6 integration scenarios) are shown in Figure 6. By 2035, annual incremental costs reach 186 million 2010$ by 2035 in Scenario #11 (i.e., Moderate Increase in Federal Action plus more State Action, integrated with the Aggressive RPS). For the other integration scenarios that include the aggressive RPS, annual incremental costs 514 million 2010$ for Scenario #9 and 437 million 2010$ for Scenario #10. It is important to note the impact of RCI and PS GHG mitigation options on annual incremental costs, when considered as options applied in a sector-specific way as opposed to options applied in an integrated way. That is, annual incremental costs for the most ambitious RCI-only scenario (i.e., Scenario #5 - Moderate Increase in Federal Action plus more State Action, integrated with the BAU scenario) show the lowest value of any scenario by 2035, negative 102 million 2010$. In contrast, annual incremental costs for the most ambitious PS-only scenario (i.e., Scenario #2 - Aggressive RPS, integrated with the BAU scenario) show the highest value of any scenario by 2035, positive 643 million 2010$. The integration of both of these ambitious scenarios results in a net 186 million 2010$ in 2035, due to the need for less high-cost renewable generation to meet annual RPS absolute generation targets due to retail electricity savings. Net present value The net present value for the eleven scenarios (i.e., 5 benchmark scenarios and 6 integration scenarios) are shown in Figure 7. For the period 2013-2035, the net present value reaches 1.93 billion 2010$ in Scenario #11 (i.e., Moderate Increase in Federal Action plus more State Action, integrated with the Aggressive RPS). For the other integration scenarios that include the aggressive RPS, net present value reaches 3.24 and 3.19 billion 2010$ for Scenarios #9 and #10, respectively. For both RPS scenarios, there is a sharp decrease in NPV between the most aggressive and middle demand side scenarios, much greater than between the least aggressive and middle scenario. This is due in large part to the combination of greater retail electricity reductions and reduced renewable generation. 13 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo Figure 6: Annual incremental costs for all scenarios Annual incremental costs 1 1000 2 3 800 4 million 2010$ 600 5 400 6 7 200 8 0 2010 -200 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 9 10 11 # 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Name of scenario Standard RPS, integrated with the BAU scenario Aggressive RPS, integrated with the BAU scenario Modest Effort, Continued State and Federal Policies, integrated with the BAU scenario Moderate Increase in Federal Action, integrated with the BAU scenario Moderate Increase in Federal Action plus more State Action, integrated with the BAU scenario Modest Effort, Continued State and Federal Policies, integrated with the Standard RPS Moderate Increase in Federal Action, integrated with the Standard RPS Moderate Increase in Federal Action plus more State Action, integrated with the Standard RPS Modest Effort, Continued State and Federal Policies, integrated with the Aggressive RPS Moderate Increase in Federal Action, integrated with the Aggressive RPS Moderate Increase in Federal Action plus more State Action, integrated with the Aggressive RPS 14 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo Figure 7: Net present value for all scenarios Net present value of the incremental costs $5,000 2013-2022 million 2010$ $4,000 2013-2035 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 $0 #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 #8 #9 #10 #11 -$1,000 # 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Name of scenario Standard RPS, integrated with the BAU scenario Aggressive RPS, integrated with the BAU scenario Modest Effort, Continued State and Federal Policies, integrated with the BAU scenario Moderate Increase in Federal Action, integrated with the BAU scenario Moderate Increase in Federal Action plus more State Action, integrated with the BAU scenario Modest Effort, Continued State and Federal Policies, integrated with the Standard RPS Moderate Increase in Federal Action, integrated with the Standard RPS Moderate Increase in Federal Action plus more State Action, integrated with the Standard RPS Modest Effort, Continued State and Federal Policies, integrated with the Aggressive RPS Moderate Increase in Federal Action, integrated with the Aggressive RPS Moderate Increase in Federal Action plus more State Action, integrated with the Aggressive RPS Cost effectiveness The cost effectiveness for the eleven scenarios (i.e., 5 benchmark scenarios and 6 integration scenarios) is shown in Figure 8 for point-of-combustion CO2e emission factors. For the period 2013-2035, the cost effectiveness is 11 2010$/tonne CO2e avoided in Scenario #13 (i.e., Moderate Increase in Federal Action plus more State Action, integrated with the Aggressive RPS). For the other integration scenarios that include the aggressive RPS, the cost effectiveness is 38 and 31 2010$/tonne CO2e avoided for Scenarios #9 and #10, respectively. 15 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo Figure 8: Cost effectiveness for all scenarios Cost effec veness $150 2013-2022 2010$/tCO2e $100 2013-2035 $50 $0 #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 #8 #9 #10 #11 -$50 -$100 -$150 # 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Name of scenario Standard RPS, integrated with the BAU scenario Aggressive RPS, integrated with the BAU scenario Modest Effort, Continued State and Federal Policies, integrated with the BAU scenario Moderate Increase in Federal Action, integrated with the BAU scenario Moderate Increase in Federal Action plus more State Action, integrated with the BAU scenario Modest Effort, Continued State and Federal Policies, integrated with the Standard RPS Moderate Increase in Federal Action, integrated with the Standard RPS Moderate Increase in Federal Action plus more State Action, integrated with the Standard RPS Modest Effort, Continued State and Federal Policies, integrated with the Aggressive RPS Moderate Increase in Federal Action, integrated with the Aggressive RPS Moderate Increase in Federal Action plus more State Action, integrated with the Aggressive RPS 16 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo Annex 1: Terms of Reference for assignment (source: Contract Amendment #9 between the Center for Climate Strategies and William Dougherty, finalized on 12 November 2013 Task 1. November 1, 2013 Oregon Stakeholder meeting attendance (by phone), conferral, and technical support. Share results of previous cost curve analysis and respond to clarifying questions and or questions regards upcoming analysis or proposed modifications to past analysis made by stakeholders and agencies. Task 2. Analytical setup, including adapting current power supply cost curve analysis framework to handle integration; harmonizing demand side tabular cost curve results with power supply parameters for margin & electricity costs; and updating demand side cost curve tabular results to account for supply side assumptions. Task 3. Analysis, including developing cost curve results for Scenario 2 (i.e., with RPS) and Scenario 3 (i.e., with aggressive RPS); producing tabular integrated cost curve results of all supply and demand side options Task 4. Technical reporting, consisting of the preparation of a brief memo summarizing final results and the submission of all spreadsheets and other documents/files used in analysis. 17 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo Annex 2a: Tabular cost curve results for the Integration Scenario: "Modest Effort, Continued State and Federal Policies, integrated with the Standard RPS", using point-of-combustion CO2e emission factors and ranked relative to cost-effectiveness over the 2013-2035 period GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Commercial Wood-fueled Space Heat Replacing Gas Commercial Insulation Measures--Gas Heat Commercial Clothes Washer Commercial Laundry Equipment--Gas Industrial Agriculture Irrigation Improvements Commercial Demand Control Ventilation Natural Replacement/Retro Commercial Windows New/Integrated Design Commercial Package Rooftop Measures New/Integrated Design Industrial Biomass-fired CHP Commercial Exit Signs Commercial Ice-Maker Improvements Industrial Lumber Conveyor Replacement Commercial Insulation Natural Replacement/Retrofit Commercial Heat Pump Water Heater Industrial Electonics Clean Room Measures Industrial Kraft Pulp Measures Industrial Metals Arc Furnace Industrial General: Lighting and Controls Commercial Demand Control Ventilation New/Integrated Design Commercial Package Rooftop Measures Natural Replacement/Retro Commercial Variable Speed Chiller New/Integrated Design Commercial Hot Water Efficiency Measures Industrial Fruit Storage Measures Schools Building Envelope Measures Commercial Variable Speed Chiller Natural Replacement/Retro Industrial Digester Gas-fired CHP Option # RCI-98 RCI-89 RCI-73 RCI-86 RCI-123 RCI-53 RCI-38 RCI-45 RCI-131 RCI-66 RCI-71 RCI-120 RCI-52 RCI-76 RCI-110 RCI-118 RCI-116 RCI-102 RCI-42 RCI-56 RCI-44 RCI-75 RCI-113 RCI-39 RCI-55 RCI-132 18 2022 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.01 2035 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.02 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.03 0.01 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.16 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.12 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.04 0.10 0.57 0.01 0.04 0.01 0.07 0.03 0.13 0.07 0.36 0.05 0.26 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.57 0.01 0.04 0.04 0.16 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.03 0.16 0.00 0.00 0.11 0.51 0.03 0.17 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 $0 $1 -$1 -$6 -$11 -$40 $0 $0 -$5 -$18 $0 -$3 $0 -$1 -$1 -$3 -$8 -$45 -$1 -$3 -$1 -$5 -$3 -$10 -$5 -$24 -$4 -$16 $0 -$1 -$1 -$4 $0 $0 -$8 -$33 $0 -$2 -$2 -$9 $0 -$1 $0 -$1 -$2 -$8 $0 $0 -$6 -$25 -$1 -$7 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 201320132022 2035 -$3,833 -$2,518 -$500 -$468 -$350 -$256 -$252 -$200 -$149 -$153 -$124 -$120 -$105 -$90 -$101 -$87 -$82 -$78 -$89 -$75 -$89 -$73 -$87 -$72 -$70 -$67 -$73 -$61 -$72 -$60 -$71 -$60 -$70 -$59 -$69 -$58 -$44 -$57 -$58 -$56 -$61 -$53 -$61 -$52 -$60 -$52 -$8 -$50 -$56 -$49 -$42 -$45 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Industrial Wood Panels Hydraulic Press Industrial Food Storage Measures Industrial Mechanical Pulp Measures Commercial Contols Commissioning HVAC New/Integrated Design Residential Lighting Improvement Commercial LDP New/Integrated Design Commercial ECM on VAV Boxes Natural Replacement/Retro Industrial General: Motors Measures Landfill gas, Reciprocating engine Industrial Cold Storage Measures Commercial Wastewater Heat Exchanger Industrial General: Transformers Commercial Solar Water Heat Commercial Cooking/Food Service Improvements Commercial Computer/Server Improvements Industrial Food Processing Measures Commercial LDP Natural Replacement/Retrofit Commercial Refrigeration Improvements Commercial ECM on VAV Boxes New/Integrated Design Manufactured Home Weatherization--Insulation Commercial Chiller Tower 6F Approach Commercial Economizer Measures Residential Heat Pump Water Heater Schools Lighting Measures Commercial Heat Reclamation Measures Commercial Lighting Controls Natural Replacement/Retrofit Commercial Lighting Controls New/Integrated Design Industrial General: Materials Movement Measures Industrial General: Air Compressor Measures Residential Electric Water Heat Efficiency Option # RCI-121 RCI-114 RCI-117 RCI-47 RCI-16 RCI-34 RCI-54 RCI-103 PS-4 RCI-112 RCI-74 RCI-106 RCI-80 RCI-62 RCI-61 RCI-111 RCI-48 RCI-70 RCI-43 RCI-4 RCI-83 RCI-78 RCI-12 RCI-35 RCI-79 RCI-50 RCI-37 RCI-107 RCI-101 RCI-11 19 2022 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.22 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.17 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.15 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.04 2035 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.16 0.03 0.00 0.01 -0.06 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.03 0.30 0.02 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.03 0.26 0.02 0.00 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.08 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.04 0.02 0.09 1.46 3.70 0.05 0.34 0.01 0.06 0.02 0.07 -0.04 -0.61 0.03 0.16 0.01 0.05 0.02 0.08 0.03 0.14 0.03 0.21 0.11 0.55 0.07 0.33 0.83 3.87 0.05 0.27 0.00 0.02 0.08 0.39 0.01 0.05 0.09 0.44 0.62 3.24 0.06 0.26 0.00 0.01 0.06 0.40 0.07 0.37 0.07 0.35 0.07 0.34 0.17 0.92 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 -$2 -$1 -$4 -$82 -$145 -$2 -$12 $0 -$2 -$1 -$3 $5 $20 -$1 -$5 $0 -$2 -$1 -$2 -$1 -$5 -$1 -$6 -$3 -$16 -$2 -$10 -$25 -$112 -$1 -$8 $0 $0 -$2 -$11 $0 -$1 -$2 -$11 -$14 -$78 -$1 -$6 $0 $0 -$1 -$9 -$1 -$8 -$1 -$7 -$1 -$7 -$2 -$17 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 201320132022 2035 -$47 -$42 -$47 -$42 -$46 -$41 -$37 -$41 -$56 -$39 -$41 -$36 -$38 -$35 -$37 -$35 -$137 -$34 -$35 -$34 -$34 -$32 -$33 -$32 -$33 -$32 -$33 -$31 -$32 -$30 -$30 -$30 -$30 -$29 -$30 -$29 -$31 -$29 -$29 -$28 -$26 -$26 -$23 -$25 -$23 -$24 -$23 -$23 -$20 -$23 -$24 -$22 -$19 -$22 -$19 -$21 -$18 -$21 -$15 -$19 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Industrial General: Fan Measures Industrial Agriculture Pump and Related Measures Industrial General: Energy Management Commercial Contols Commissioning HVAC Retrofit Commercial DVC Hood Industrial Gas-fired CHP Industrial Electonics Chip Fab Measures Industrial General: Pump Measures Commercial Daylighting New/Integrated Design Commercial Gas-fired CHP Commercial Wood-fueled Space Heat Replacing Electric Industrial Grocery Distribution Measures Commercial Rooftop Condensing Burner Commercial Low Press. Dist. Complex HVAC New/Integrated Design Residential Wood-fueled Heat Replacing Electric Resistance Industrial Paper Sector Measures Single Family Weatherization--Windows Schools HVAC Single Family Home HVAC Conversion/Upgrade Manufactured Home HVAC Conversion/Upgrade Resdential CHP Tidal current, Water current turbines Geothermal, Binary hydrothermal Commercial Premium HVAC Natural Replacement/Retro Commercial Parking Lighting Commercial Daylighting Natural Replacement/Retrofit Hydropower, New projects Multifamily Weatherization--Windows Commercial Premium HVAC New/Integrated Design Animal manure, Reciprocating engine Option # RCI-104 RCI-122 RCI-108 RCI-58 RCI-65 RCI-130 RCI-109 RCI-105 RCI-36 RCI-96 RCI-97 RCI-115 RCI-84 RCI-40 RCI-32 RCI-119 RCI-9 RCI-41 RCI-3 RCI-2 RCI-31 PS-10 PS-8 RCI-57 RCI-59 RCI-49 PS-1 RCI-7 RCI-46 PS-5 20 2022 0.03 0.02 0.10 0.05 0.00 0.21 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.14 0.10 0.03 0.19 0.48 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.22 0.03 0.00 0.08 2035 0.05 0.01 0.17 0.04 0.00 0.39 0.01 0.05 0.01 0.20 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.01 0.08 0.00 0.23 0.18 0.05 0.12 0.30 0.00 0.03 0.01 0.14 0.04 0.00 0.05 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.13 0.63 0.09 0.30 0.45 2.15 0.24 0.77 0.02 0.07 0.82 4.70 0.01 0.07 0.12 0.59 0.01 0.10 0.33 2.17 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.06 0.01 0.03 0.01 0.04 0.08 0.44 0.01 0.07 0.24 1.10 0.02 0.07 0.62 3.08 0.39 2.18 0.11 0.63 0.68 2.48 1.49 5.99 0.00 0.02 0.06 0.39 0.01 0.08 0.59 2.67 0.12 0.55 0.00 0.01 0.60 1.37 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 -$2 -$12 -$1 -$5 -$4 -$31 -$1 -$11 $0 -$1 -$13 -$58 $0 $0 $0 -$3 $0 $0 $1 $3 $0 $0 $0 $1 $0 $0 $0 $1 $2 $7 $1 $1 $9 $24 $1 $2 $26 $74 $17 $55 $4 $17 $25 $66 $56 $174 $0 $1 $3 $14 $1 $3 $26 $99 $8 $22 $0 $0 $36 $62 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 201320132022 2035 -$15 -$18 -$13 -$17 -$9 -$14 -$6 -$14 -$8 -$13 -$16 -$12 $1 -$7 $3 -$5 $8 $1 $3 $2 $20 $9 $25 $11 $27 $12 $27 $15 $30 $16 $37 $20 $40 $21 $55 $23 $42 $24 $43 $25 $36 $26 $36 $26 $38 $29 $51 $32 $57 $35 $57 $37 $45 $37 $64 $39 $63 $41 $60 $45 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Wastewater treatment gas, Reciprocating engines Single Family Weatherization--Insulation Manufactured Home Weatherization--Windows Wind (in OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Offshore Wind, Floating WTG Woody residues, Steam-electric - brownfield Residential Gravity Film Heat Exchanger Multifamily Weatherization--Insulation Residential Solar Water Heat--Electric Back-up Commercial Signage Woody residues, Steam-electric - greenfield Industrial Solar PV Commercial Ground-source Heat Pump Commercial Solar PV Residential Solar Photovoltaic Residential Refrigerator Recycle Solar, Utility-scale Photovoltaic arrays Commercial Heating Measures--Gas Commercial Wood-fueled Space Heat Replacing Oil/LPG Residential Cooling Appliances Commercial Insulation Measures--Gas Residential Laundry Appliance Improvement Residential Dishwasher Improvement Residential Refrigerator/Freezer Improvement Residential Cooking Appliance Improvement Home Energy Monitor Residential Electronics Improvements Residential Gas Water Heat Measures Residential Gas Furnace Upgrade Multifamily HVAC--Gas Heat Option # PS-3 RCI-8 RCI-5 PS-15 PS-12 PS-6 RCI-17 RCI-6 RCI-19 RCI-67 PS-7 RCI-136 RCI-85 RCI-100 RCI-10 RCI-21 PS-13 RCI-91 RCI-99 RCI-1 RCI-93 RCI-13 RCI-14 RCI-15 RCI-18 RCI-20 RCI-22 RCI-23 RCI-24 RCI-25 21 2022 0.00 0.07 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.03 0.01 0.14 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.04 0.08 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2035 0.01 0.11 0.03 0.26 0.49 0.13 0.06 0.02 0.20 0.01 0.14 0.09 0.00 0.06 0.11 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.00 0.09 0.31 1.52 0.08 0.39 0.00 1.70 0.00 5.53 0.09 1.76 0.12 0.68 0.06 0.31 0.66 2.97 0.01 0.07 0.00 1.53 0.29 1.31 0.00 0.02 0.18 0.82 0.36 1.62 0.00 0.02 0.06 0.27 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 $0 $4 $21 $78 $6 $20 $0 $91 $0 $315 $6 $101 $13 $48 $10 $37 $114 $358 $2 $8 $0 $204 $61 $195 $1 $3 $41 $132 $83 $265 $1 $3 $17 $68 $4 $12 $0 $0 $6 $19 $0 -$1 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $4 $9 -$2 -$10 $0 $0 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 201320132022 2035 NA $48 $69 $51 $75 $51 NA $53 NA $57 $61 $57 $104 $70 $159 $120 $172 $121 $184 $128 NA $133 $211 $149 $215 $151 $226 $160 $230 $163 $265 $189 $290 $251 $1,011 $596 $865 $643 $7,148 $5,283 $7,904 $7,699 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Residential Gas Heat Windows Residential Gas Heat, Insulation/Ducts/Weatherization Residential Multi-Measure Gas Heat Residential Solar Hot Water--Gas Back-up Residential Heat/Energy Recovery Ventillation--Gas Residential Wood-fueled Heat Replacing Oil/LPG Commercial Windows Natural Replacement/Retrofit Commercial Refrigeration Improvements Commercial Wastewater Treatment Improvements Commercial Water Supply Improvements Commercial Fume Hood Commercial Street Lighting Commercial Vending Machines Commercial Transformers Commercial Heating Duct Measures Commercial Energy Management Systems Commercial Cooking Equipment--Gas Commercial Hot Water Measures--Gas Commercial Heat Reclamation--Gas Commercial Wastewater Heat Exchanger--Gas Commercial Windows Measures--Gas Commercial Solar Hot Water--Gas Back-up Industrial Rural Area Lighting Industrial Traffic Signals Relamping Industrial Boiler Measures Industrial Hot Water Measures Industrial Space Heating Measures Industrial Weatherization Measures Industrial Cement Production Emissions Reduction Industrial Electronics Industry Solvent Emissions Reduction Option # RCI-26 RCI-27 RCI-28 RCI-29 RCI-30 RCI-33 RCI-51 RCI-60 RCI-63 RCI-64 RCI-68 RCI-69 RCI-72 RCI-77 RCI-81 RCI-82 RCI-87 RCI-88 RCI-90 RCI-92 RCI-94 RCI-95 RCI-124 RCI-125 RCI-126 RCI-127 RCI-128 RCI-129 RCI-133 RCI-134 22 2022 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2035 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 -$4 -$16 $19 $61 -$2 -$19 $6 $17 $2 $6 $0 -$1 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 -$1 -$6 -$1 -$4 $0 $0 $0 $0 $3 $8 $0 $1 $0 $0 $0 $0 -$2 -$10 -$3 -$13 -$6 -$24 -$3 -$12 $0 $0 $0 $0 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 201320132022 2035 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Industrial Halon Consumption Reduction Hydropower, Conventional hydro upgrades in OR Geothermal, Enhanced Geothermal Wave, Various buoy & overtopping devices Solar (Nevada), Parabolic trough Wind (from Alberta to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Montana to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Wyoming to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Total - RCI options only Total - PS options only Total - All RCI and PS options Option # RCI-135 PS-2 PS-9 PS-11 PS-14 PS-16 PS-17 PS-18 23 2022 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.34 1.03 3.37 2035 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.77 1.60 5.37 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.79 50.32 3.47 22.79 14.26 73.11 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $215 $512 $171 $1,204 $386 $1,716 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 201320132022 2035 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA $20 $10 $49 $53 $27 $23 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo Annex 2b: Tabular cost curve results for the Integration Scenario: "Modest Effort, Continued State and Federal Policies, integrated with the Standard RPS", using full fuel cycle CO2e emission factors and ranked relative to costeffectiveness over the 2013-2035 period GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Commercial Wood-fueled Space Heat Replacing Gas Commercial Insulation Measures--Gas Heat Commercial Clothes Washer Commercial Laundry Equipment--Gas Industrial Agriculture Irrigation Improvements Commercial Demand Control Ventilation Natural Replacement/Retro Commercial Windows New/Integrated Design Commercial Package Rooftop Measures New/Integrated Design Landfill gas, Reciprocating engine Industrial Biomass-fired CHP Commercial Exit Signs Commercial Ice-Maker Improvements Industrial Lumber Conveyor Replacement Commercial Insulation Natural Replacement/Retrofit Commercial Heat Pump Water Heater Industrial Electonics Clean Room Measures Industrial Kraft Pulp Measures Industrial Metals Arc Furnace Industrial General: Lighting and Controls Commercial Demand Control Ventilation New/Integrated Design Commercial Package Rooftop Measures Natural Replacement/Retro Commercial Variable Speed Chiller New/Integrated Design Commercial Hot Water Efficiency Measures Industrial Fruit Storage Measures Schools Building Envelope Measures Commercial Variable Speed Chiller Natural Replacement/Retro Option # RCI-98 RCI-89 RCI-73 RCI-86 RCI-123 RCI-53 RCI-38 RCI-45 PS-4 RCI-131 RCI-66 RCI-71 RCI-120 RCI-52 RCI-76 RCI-110 RCI-118 RCI-116 RCI-102 RCI-42 RCI-56 RCI-44 RCI-75 RCI-113 RCI-39 RCI-55 24 2022 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.03 2035 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.03 0.06 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.04 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.04 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.19 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.14 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.04 0.00 -0.31 0.12 0.69 0.01 0.05 0.02 0.09 0.04 0.16 0.08 0.43 0.06 0.31 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.09 0.00 0.00 0.14 0.68 0.01 0.05 0.04 0.19 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.19 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.62 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 $0 $1 -$1 -$6 -$11 -$40 $0 $0 -$5 -$18 $0 -$3 $0 -$1 -$1 -$3 $5 $20 -$8 -$45 -$1 -$3 -$1 -$5 -$3 -$10 -$5 -$24 -$4 -$16 $0 -$1 -$1 -$4 $0 $0 -$8 -$33 $0 -$2 -$2 -$9 $0 -$1 $0 -$1 -$2 -$8 $0 $0 -$6 -$25 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 201320132022 2035 -$3,232 -$2,084 -$421 -$388 -$294 -$212 -$212 -$166 -$125 -$127 -$104 -$99 -$88 -$74 -$85 -$72 $1,422 -$66 -$69 -$65 -$75 -$62 -$75 -$60 -$73 -$60 -$59 -$56 -$62 -$51 -$60 -$50 -$60 -$50 -$59 -$49 -$58 -$48 -$37 -$47 -$49 -$46 -$52 -$44 -$51 -$43 -$51 -$43 -$7 -$41 -$47 -$41 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Industrial Digester Gas-fired CHP Industrial Wood Panels Hydraulic Press Industrial Food Storage Measures Industrial Mechanical Pulp Measures Commercial Contols Commissioning HVAC New/Integrated Design Residential Lighting Improvement Commercial LDP New/Integrated Design Commercial ECM on VAV Boxes Natural Replacement/Retro Industrial General: Motors Measures Industrial Cold Storage Measures Commercial Wastewater Heat Exchanger Industrial General: Transformers Commercial Solar Water Heat Commercial Cooking/Food Service Improvements Commercial Computer/Server Improvements Industrial Food Processing Measures Commercial LDP Natural Replacement/Retrofit Commercial Refrigeration Improvements Commercial ECM on VAV Boxes New/Integrated Design Manufactured Home Weatherization--Insulation Commercial Chiller Tower 6F Approach Commercial Economizer Measures Residential Heat Pump Water Heater Schools Lighting Measures Commercial Heat Reclamation Measures Commercial Lighting Controls Natural Replacement/Retrofit Commercial Lighting Controls New/Integrated Design Industrial General: Materials Movement Measures Industrial General: Air Compressor Measures Residential Electric Water Heat Efficiency Option # RCI-132 RCI-121 RCI-114 RCI-117 RCI-47 RCI-16 RCI-34 RCI-54 RCI-103 RCI-112 RCI-74 RCI-106 RCI-80 RCI-62 RCI-61 RCI-111 RCI-48 RCI-70 RCI-43 RCI-4 RCI-83 RCI-78 RCI-12 RCI-35 RCI-79 RCI-50 RCI-37 RCI-107 RCI-101 RCI-11 25 2022 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.25 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.02 0.20 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.17 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.05 2035 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.19 0.04 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.06 0.03 0.37 0.03 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.04 0.32 0.02 0.00 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.09 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.03 0.20 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.04 0.02 0.11 1.73 4.44 0.06 0.41 0.01 0.07 0.02 0.09 0.04 0.20 0.01 0.06 0.02 0.09 0.03 0.17 0.04 0.25 0.13 0.67 0.08 0.40 0.98 4.67 0.06 0.33 0.00 0.02 0.10 0.48 0.01 0.06 0.11 0.53 0.73 3.91 0.07 0.31 0.00 0.01 0.07 0.48 0.09 0.45 0.09 0.42 0.08 0.41 0.20 1.11 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 -$1 -$7 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 -$2 -$1 -$4 -$82 -$145 -$2 -$12 $0 -$2 -$1 -$3 -$1 -$5 $0 -$2 -$1 -$2 -$1 -$5 -$1 -$6 -$3 -$16 -$2 -$10 -$25 -$112 -$1 -$8 $0 $0 -$2 -$11 $0 -$1 -$2 -$11 -$14 -$78 -$1 -$6 $0 $0 -$1 -$9 -$1 -$8 -$1 -$7 -$1 -$7 -$2 -$17 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 201320132022 2035 -$35 -$37 -$39 -$35 -$39 -$35 -$39 -$34 -$31 -$34 -$47 -$33 -$35 -$30 -$32 -$29 -$31 -$29 -$30 -$28 -$28 -$27 -$28 -$27 -$28 -$26 -$27 -$26 -$27 -$25 -$25 -$24 -$25 -$24 -$25 -$24 -$26 -$24 -$24 -$23 -$22 -$22 -$20 -$21 -$19 -$20 -$19 -$19 -$17 -$19 -$20 -$19 -$16 -$18 -$16 -$18 -$15 -$17 -$12 -$15 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Industrial General: Fan Measures Industrial Agriculture Pump and Related Measures Industrial General: Energy Management Commercial Contols Commissioning HVAC Retrofit Commercial DVC Hood Industrial Gas-fired CHP Industrial Electonics Chip Fab Measures Industrial General: Pump Measures Commercial Daylighting New/Integrated Design Commercial Gas-fired CHP Commercial Wood-fueled Space Heat Replacing Electric Industrial Grocery Distribution Measures Commercial Rooftop Condensing Burner Commercial Low Press. Dist. Complex HVAC New/Integrated Design Residential Wood-fueled Heat Replacing Electric Resistance Industrial Paper Sector Measures Single Family Weatherization--Windows Schools HVAC Single Family Home HVAC Conversion/Upgrade Manufactured Home HVAC Conversion/Upgrade Resdential CHP Tidal current, Water current turbines Geothermal, Binary hydrothermal Commercial Premium HVAC Natural Replacement/Retro Commercial Parking Lighting Commercial Daylighting Natural Replacement/Retrofit Hydropower, New projects Multifamily Weatherization--Windows Commercial Premium HVAC New/Integrated Design Animal manure, Reciprocating engine Option # RCI-104 RCI-122 RCI-108 RCI-58 RCI-65 RCI-130 RCI-109 RCI-105 RCI-36 RCI-96 RCI-97 RCI-115 RCI-84 RCI-40 RCI-32 RCI-119 RCI-9 RCI-41 RCI-3 RCI-2 RCI-31 PS-10 PS-8 RCI-57 RCI-59 RCI-49 PS-1 RCI-7 RCI-46 PS-5 26 2022 0.03 0.02 0.11 0.06 0.00 0.24 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.16 0.11 0.03 0.22 0.56 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.26 0.03 0.00 0.10 2035 0.06 0.02 0.21 0.05 0.00 0.48 0.01 0.06 0.01 0.25 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.01 0.09 0.00 0.28 0.22 0.07 0.15 0.38 0.00 0.04 0.01 0.17 0.05 0.00 0.06 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.16 0.76 0.11 0.36 0.54 2.60 0.28 0.93 0.02 0.08 0.98 5.68 0.02 0.08 0.15 0.71 0.02 0.12 0.40 2.62 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.07 0.01 0.04 0.01 0.05 0.09 0.53 0.02 0.09 0.28 1.33 0.02 0.08 0.74 3.72 0.47 2.63 0.13 0.77 0.80 3.02 1.76 7.30 0.00 0.02 0.07 0.47 0.02 0.09 0.70 3.26 0.14 0.66 0.00 0.01 0.72 1.67 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 -$2 -$12 -$1 -$5 -$4 -$31 -$1 -$11 $0 -$1 -$13 -$58 $0 $0 $0 -$3 $0 $0 $1 $3 $0 $0 $0 $1 $0 $0 $0 $1 $2 $7 $1 $1 $9 $24 $1 $2 $26 $74 $17 $55 $4 $17 $25 $66 $56 $174 $0 $1 $3 $14 $1 $3 $26 $99 $8 $22 $0 $0 $36 $62 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 201320132022 2035 -$12 -$15 -$11 -$14 -$8 -$12 -$5 -$12 -$7 -$11 -$14 -$10 $1 -$6 $3 -$4 $7 $0 $2 $1 $17 $7 $21 $9 $23 $10 $23 $12 $26 $13 $31 $17 $34 $18 $47 $20 $35 $20 $37 $21 $31 $22 $31 $22 $32 $24 $43 $26 $48 $29 $48 $30 $38 $30 $54 $33 $53 $34 $50 $37 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Wastewater treatment gas, Reciprocating engines Wind (in OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Single Family Weatherization--Insulation Manufactured Home Weatherization--Windows Offshore Wind, Floating WTG Residential Gravity Film Heat Exchanger Woody residues, Steam-electric - brownfield Multifamily Weatherization--Insulation Residential Solar Water Heat--Electric Back-up Commercial Signage Industrial Solar PV Commercial Ground-source Heat Pump Commercial Solar PV Residential Solar Photovoltaic Woody residues, Steam-electric - greenfield Residential Refrigerator Recycle Solar, Utility-scale Photovoltaic arrays Commercial Heating Measures--Gas Commercial Wood-fueled Space Heat Replacing Oil/LPG Residential Cooling Appliances Commercial Insulation Measures--Gas Residential Laundry Appliance Improvement Residential Dishwasher Improvement Residential Refrigerator/Freezer Improvement Residential Cooking Appliance Improvement Home Energy Monitor Residential Electronics Improvements Residential Gas Water Heat Measures Residential Gas Furnace Upgrade Multifamily HVAC--Gas Heat Option # PS-3 PS-15 RCI-8 RCI-5 PS-12 RCI-17 PS-6 RCI-6 RCI-19 RCI-67 RCI-136 RCI-85 RCI-100 RCI-10 PS-7 RCI-21 PS-13 RCI-91 RCI-99 RCI-1 RCI-93 RCI-13 RCI-14 RCI-15 RCI-18 RCI-20 RCI-22 RCI-23 RCI-24 RCI-25 27 2022 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.02 0.00 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.16 0.00 0.07 0.00 0.05 0.09 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2035 0.01 0.33 0.14 0.03 0.63 0.07 0.11 0.03 0.25 0.01 0.11 0.00 0.07 0.13 0.12 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.00 0.11 0.00 2.14 0.37 1.83 0.10 0.47 0.00 6.99 0.15 0.82 0.09 1.55 0.07 0.37 0.79 3.58 0.02 0.08 0.35 1.58 0.00 0.02 0.22 0.99 0.43 1.95 0.00 1.33 0.00 0.02 0.07 0.33 0.01 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 $0 $4 $0 $91 $21 $78 $6 $20 $0 $315 $13 $48 $6 $101 $10 $37 $114 $358 $2 $8 $61 $195 $1 $3 $41 $132 $83 $265 $0 $204 $1 $3 $17 $68 $4 $12 $0 $0 $6 $19 $0 -$1 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $4 $9 -$2 -$10 $0 $0 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 201320132022 2035 NA $38 NA $42 $58 $42 $63 $43 NA $45 $88 $58 $66 $65 $134 $99 $145 $100 $155 $106 $178 $124 $181 $125 $190 $133 $193 $136 NA $154 $223 $156 $244 $206 $851 $494 $729 $532 $6,015 $4,379 $6,651 $6,381 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Residential Gas Heat Windows Residential Gas Heat, Insulation/Ducts/Weatherization Residential Multi-Measure Gas Heat Residential Solar Hot Water--Gas Back-up Residential Heat/Energy Recovery Ventillation--Gas Residential Wood-fueled Heat Replacing Oil/LPG Commercial Windows Natural Replacement/Retrofit Commercial Refrigeration Improvements Commercial Wastewater Treatment Improvements Commercial Water Supply Improvements Commercial Fume Hood Commercial Street Lighting Commercial Vending Machines Commercial Transformers Commercial Heating Duct Measures Commercial Energy Management Systems Commercial Cooking Equipment--Gas Commercial Hot Water Measures--Gas Commercial Heat Reclamation--Gas Commercial Wastewater Heat Exchanger--Gas Commercial Windows Measures--Gas Commercial Solar Hot Water--Gas Back-up Industrial Rural Area Lighting Industrial Traffic Signals Relamping Industrial Boiler Measures Industrial Hot Water Measures Industrial Space Heating Measures Industrial Weatherization Measures Industrial Cement Production Emissions Reduction Industrial Electronics Industry Solvent Emissions Reduction Option # RCI-26 RCI-27 RCI-28 RCI-29 RCI-30 RCI-33 RCI-51 RCI-60 RCI-63 RCI-64 RCI-68 RCI-69 RCI-72 RCI-77 RCI-81 RCI-82 RCI-87 RCI-88 RCI-90 RCI-92 RCI-94 RCI-95 RCI-124 RCI-125 RCI-126 RCI-127 RCI-128 RCI-129 RCI-133 RCI-134 28 2022 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2035 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 -$4 -$16 $19 $61 -$2 -$19 $6 $17 $2 $6 $0 -$1 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 -$1 -$6 -$1 -$4 $0 $0 $0 $0 $3 $8 $0 $1 $0 $0 $0 $0 -$2 -$10 -$3 -$13 -$6 -$24 -$3 -$12 $0 $0 $0 $0 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 201320132022 2035 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Industrial Halon Consumption Reduction Hydropower, Conventional hydro upgrades in OR Geothermal, Enhanced Geothermal Wave, Various buoy & overtopping devices Solar (Nevada), Parabolic trough Wind (from Alberta to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Montana to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Wyoming to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Total - RCI options only Total - PS options only Total - All RCI and PS options Option # RCI-135 PS-2 PS-9 PS-11 PS-14 PS-16 PS-17 PS-18 29 2022 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.71 1.20 3.92 2035 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.63 1.95 6.58 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 12.82 60.70 4.14 27.38 16.96 88.08 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $215 $512 $171 $1,204 $386 $1,716 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 201320132022 2035 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA $17 $8 $41 $44 $23 $19 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo Annex 3a: Tabular cost curve results for the Integration Scenario: "Moderate Increase in Federal Action, integrated with the Standard RPS", using point-of-combustion CO2e emission factors and ranked relative to cost-effectiveness over the 2013-2035 period GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Commercial Wood-fueled Space Heat Replacing Gas Commercial Insulation Measures--Gas Heat Commercial Clothes Washer Commercial Laundry Equipment--Gas Industrial Agriculture Irrigation Improvements Schools Building Envelope Measures Commercial Demand Control Ventilation Natural Replacement/Retro Commercial Windows New/Integrated Design Commercial Package Rooftop Measures New/Integrated Design Commercial Insulation Natural Replacement/Retrofit Industrial Biomass-fired CHP Commercial Ice-Maker Improvements Industrial Lumber Conveyor Replacement Commercial Heat Pump Water Heater Industrial Electonics Clean Room Measures Industrial General: Lighting and Controls Industrial Kraft Pulp Measures Industrial Metals Arc Furnace Commercial Package Rooftop Measures Natural Replacement/Retro Commercial Demand Control Ventilation New/Integrated Design Commercial Variable Speed Chiller New/Integrated Design Commercial Hot Water Efficiency Measures Industrial Fruit Storage Measures Commercial Variable Speed Chiller Natural Replacement/Retro Industrial Digester Gas-fired CHP Residential Lighting Improvement Option # RCI-98 RCI-89 RCI-73 RCI-86 RCI-123 RCI-39 RCI-53 RCI-38 RCI-45 RCI-52 RCI-131 RCI-71 RCI-120 RCI-76 RCI-110 RCI-102 RCI-118 RCI-116 RCI-56 RCI-42 RCI-44 RCI-75 RCI-113 RCI-55 RCI-132 RCI-16 30 2022 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.02 0.25 2035 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.07 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.00 0.05 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.04 0.18 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.16 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.12 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.05 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.04 0.08 0.41 0.15 0.86 0.01 0.07 0.03 0.13 0.05 0.26 0.00 0.01 0.14 0.66 0.01 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.19 0.01 0.04 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.03 0.16 0.13 0.60 0.09 0.50 1.70 4.31 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 $0 $1 -$2 -$8 -$11 -$40 $0 $0 -$5 -$18 $0 $0 -$1 -$5 $0 -$1 -$1 -$3 -$7 -$34 -$12 -$67 -$1 -$5 -$3 -$10 -$4 -$16 $0 -$1 -$10 -$40 -$1 -$4 $0 $0 -$3 -$11 $0 -$2 $0 -$1 $0 -$1 -$2 -$8 -$8 -$30 -$4 -$22 -$103 -$189 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 201320132022 2035 -$3,833 -$2,518 -$551 -$505 -$350 -$256 -$252 -$200 -$149 -$153 -$87 -$110 -$86 -$98 -$105 -$90 -$101 -$87 -$91 -$83 -$82 -$78 -$89 -$73 -$87 -$72 -$73 -$61 -$72 -$60 -$71 -$60 -$71 -$60 -$70 -$59 -$61 -$58 -$44 -$57 -$61 -$53 -$61 -$52 -$60 -$52 -$58 -$50 -$42 -$45 -$61 -$44 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Residential Refrigerator/Freezer Improvement Industrial Wood Panels Hydraulic Press Industrial Food Storage Measures Industrial Mechanical Pulp Measures Commercial Contols Commissioning HVAC New/Integrated Design Commercial ECM on VAV Boxes Natural Replacement/Retro Commercial LDP New/Integrated Design Industrial General: Motors Measures Industrial Cold Storage Measures Commercial LDP Natural Replacement/Retrofit Commercial Wastewater Heat Exchanger Industrial General: Transformers Commercial Solar Water Heat Commercial Cooking/Food Service Improvements Manufactured Home Weatherization--Insulation Commercial Computer/Server Improvements Industrial Food Processing Measures Residential Heat Pump Water Heater Commercial Refrigeration Improvements Commercial ECM on VAV Boxes New/Integrated Design Commercial Lighting Controls Natural Replacement/Retrofit Landfill gas, Reciprocating engine Commercial Chiller Tower 6F Approach Schools Lighting Measures Commercial Economizer Measures Residential Electric Water Heat Efficiency Commercial Heat Reclamation Measures Commercial Lighting Controls New/Integrated Design Industrial General: Materials Movement Measures Industrial General: Air Compressor Measures Option # RCI-15 RCI-121 RCI-114 RCI-117 RCI-47 RCI-54 RCI-34 RCI-103 RCI-112 RCI-48 RCI-74 RCI-106 RCI-80 RCI-62 RCI-4 RCI-61 RCI-111 RCI-12 RCI-70 RCI-43 RCI-50 PS-4 RCI-83 RCI-35 RCI-78 RCI-11 RCI-79 RCI-37 RCI-107 RCI-101 31 2022 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.20 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.17 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.02 2035 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.35 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.05 0.03 0.31 0.02 0.00 0.04 -0.05 0.00 0.02 0.03 0.09 0.00 0.03 0.03 0.03 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.01 0.07 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.04 0.02 0.09 0.01 0.07 0.05 0.34 0.02 0.07 0.03 0.16 0.96 4.51 0.01 0.05 0.02 0.08 0.03 0.14 0.03 0.21 0.09 0.43 0.11 0.55 0.07 0.33 0.72 3.78 0.05 0.27 0.00 0.02 0.07 0.46 -0.01 -0.60 0.01 0.05 0.06 0.28 0.09 0.44 0.20 1.07 0.00 0.01 0.07 0.37 0.07 0.35 0.07 0.34 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 -$1 -$3 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 -$2 -$1 -$4 -$1 -$2 -$2 -$12 -$1 -$3 -$1 -$5 -$35 -$151 $0 -$2 -$1 -$2 -$1 -$5 -$1 -$6 -$3 -$13 -$3 -$16 -$2 -$10 -$21 -$110 -$1 -$8 $0 $0 -$2 -$13 $2 $16 $0 -$1 -$2 -$7 -$2 -$11 -$4 -$26 $0 $0 -$1 -$8 -$1 -$7 -$1 -$7 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 201320132022 2035 -$48 -$43 -$47 -$42 -$47 -$42 -$46 -$41 -$37 -$41 -$40 -$37 -$41 -$36 -$37 -$35 -$35 -$34 -$36 -$33 -$34 -$32 -$33 -$32 -$33 -$32 -$33 -$31 -$33 -$31 -$32 -$30 -$30 -$30 -$30 -$29 -$30 -$29 -$31 -$29 -$31 -$28 -$319 -$27 -$26 -$26 -$27 -$26 -$23 -$25 -$22 -$24 -$20 -$23 -$19 -$22 -$19 -$21 -$18 -$21 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Residential Electronics Improvements Industrial General: Fan Measures Commercial Contols Commissioning HVAC Retrofit Industrial Agriculture Pump and Related Measures Industrial General: Energy Management Commercial DVC Hood Industrial Gas-fired CHP Industrial Electonics Chip Fab Measures Industrial General: Pump Measures Commercial Daylighting New/Integrated Design Commercial Gas-fired CHP Commercial Wood-fueled Space Heat Replacing Electric Industrial Grocery Distribution Measures Commercial Rooftop Condensing Burner Single Family Weatherization--Windows Commercial Low Press. Dist. Complex HVAC New/Integrated Design Single Family Home HVAC Conversion/Upgrade Residential Wood-fueled Heat Replacing Electric Resistance Manufactured Home HVAC Conversion/Upgrade Schools HVAC Industrial Paper Sector Measures Resdential CHP Commercial Daylighting Natural Replacement/Retrofit Tidal current, Water current turbines Commercial Premium HVAC Natural Replacement/Retro Geothermal, Binary hydrothermal Multifamily Weatherization--Windows Commercial Parking Lighting Hydropower, New projects Commercial Exit Signs Option # RCI-22 RCI-104 RCI-58 RCI-122 RCI-108 RCI-65 RCI-130 RCI-109 RCI-105 RCI-36 RCI-96 RCI-97 RCI-115 RCI-84 RCI-9 RCI-40 RCI-3 RCI-32 RCI-2 RCI-41 RCI-119 RCI-31 RCI-49 PS-10 RCI-57 PS-8 RCI-7 RCI-59 PS-1 RCI-66 32 2022 0.06 0.03 0.06 0.02 0.10 0.00 0.31 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.33 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.16 0.02 0.11 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.19 0.00 0.48 0.03 0.02 0.22 0.00 2035 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.01 0.17 0.00 0.59 0.01 0.05 0.01 0.76 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.09 0.00 0.26 0.04 0.20 0.00 0.01 0.11 0.01 0.12 0.00 0.31 0.04 0.03 0.14 0.00 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.33 1.05 0.13 0.63 0.28 0.90 0.09 0.30 0.45 2.15 0.02 0.07 1.23 7.06 0.01 0.07 0.12 0.59 0.01 0.10 1.25 8.13 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.06 0.01 0.03 0.27 1.25 0.01 0.04 0.71 3.52 0.08 0.44 0.44 2.46 0.02 0.08 0.01 0.07 0.22 1.27 0.02 0.09 0.50 2.29 0.00 0.02 1.49 5.95 0.14 0.63 0.06 0.39 0.58 2.64 0.01 0.04 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 -$1 -$21 -$2 -$12 -$3 -$15 -$1 -$5 -$4 -$31 $0 -$1 -$20 -$87 $0 $0 $0 -$3 $0 $0 $3 $12 $0 $0 $0 $1 $0 $0 $8 $17 $0 $1 $22 $56 $2 $7 $14 $42 $1 $1 $1 $1 $6 $26 $1 $2 $14 $55 $0 $1 $56 $173 $7 $19 $3 $14 $25 $98 $1 $1 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 201320132022 2035 -$3 -$20 -$15 -$18 -$10 -$17 -$13 -$17 -$9 -$14 -$8 -$13 -$16 -$12 $1 -$7 $3 -$5 $8 $1 $3 $2 $20 $9 $25 $11 $27 $12 $29 $13 $27 $15 $31 $16 $30 $16 $32 $17 $49 $19 $37 $20 $29 $20 $39 $23 $29 $24 $46 $27 $38 $29 $51 $30 $57 $35 $44 $37 $58 $39 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Commercial Premium HVAC New/Integrated Design Manufactured Home Weatherization--Windows Single Family Weatherization--Insulation Animal manure, Reciprocating engine Wastewater treatment gas, Reciprocating engines Residential Cooking Appliance Improvement Residential Gravity Film Heat Exchanger Wind (in OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Offshore Wind, Floating WTG Woody residues, Steam-electric - brownfield Industrial Cement Production Emissions Reduction Residential Solar Water Heat--Electric Back-up Multifamily Weatherization--Insulation Woody residues, Steam-electric - greenfield Commercial Signage Residential Dishwasher Improvement Industrial Solar PV Commercial Ground-source Heat Pump Commercial Solar PV Residential Solar Photovoltaic Residential Refrigerator Recycle Residential Laundry Appliance Improvement Solar, Utility-scale Photovoltaic arrays Commercial Heating Measures--Gas Commercial Wood-fueled Space Heat Replacing Oil/LPG Home Energy Monitor Residential Cooling Appliances Commercial Insulation Measures--Gas Residential Gas Water Heat Measures Residential Gas Furnace Upgrade Option # RCI-46 RCI-5 RCI-8 PS-5 PS-3 RCI-18 RCI-17 PS-15 PS-12 PS-6 RCI-133 RCI-19 RCI-6 PS-7 RCI-67 RCI-14 RCI-136 RCI-85 RCI-100 RCI-10 RCI-21 RCI-13 PS-13 RCI-91 RCI-99 RCI-20 RCI-1 RCI-93 RCI-23 RCI-24 33 2022 0.00 0.02 0.08 0.07 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.16 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.00 0.12 0.08 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2035 0.00 0.03 0.12 0.05 0.01 0.01 0.07 0.09 0.51 0.14 0.00 0.23 0.03 0.11 0.01 0.01 0.14 0.00 0.17 0.11 0.00 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.00 0.01 0.09 0.44 0.34 1.66 0.45 1.19 0.00 0.09 0.02 0.12 0.14 0.80 0.00 0.98 0.00 5.52 0.00 1.47 -0.01 -0.02 0.77 3.47 0.06 0.33 0.00 0.62 0.01 0.07 0.02 0.08 0.47 2.09 0.00 0.02 0.55 2.47 0.36 1.62 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.19 0.06 0.27 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 $0 $0 $6 $18 $19 $70 $27 $52 $0 $4 $2 $6 $12 $45 $0 $56 $0 $315 $0 $90 -$1 -$1 $104 $321 $9 $36 $0 $79 $2 $8 $3 $11 $98 $312 $1 $3 $124 $395 $83 $265 $1 $3 $12 $44 $17 $68 $4 $12 $0 $0 $8 $28 $6 $21 $0 -$2 $3 $4 -$3 -$12 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 201320132022 2035 $63 $41 $62 $42 $56 $42 $59 $43 NA $49 $84 $52 $85 $56 NA $57 NA $57 NA $61 $87 $61 $135 $93 $145 $110 NA $127 $184 $128 $192 $135 $211 $149 $215 $151 $226 $160 $230 $163 $265 $189 $315 $225 $293 $253 $876 $510 $865 $643 $3,308 $2,444 $6,525 $4,821 $9,105 $8,587 NA NA NA NA CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Multifamily HVAC--Gas Heat Residential Gas Heat Windows Residential Gas Heat, Insulation/Ducts/Weatherization Residential Multi-Measure Gas Heat Residential Solar Hot Water--Gas Back-up Residential Heat/Energy Recovery Ventillation--Gas Residential Wood-fueled Heat Replacing Oil/LPG Commercial Windows Natural Replacement/Retrofit Commercial Refrigeration Improvements Commercial Wastewater Treatment Improvements Commercial Water Supply Improvements Commercial Fume Hood Commercial Street Lighting Commercial Vending Machines Commercial Transformers Commercial Heating Duct Measures Commercial Energy Management Systems Commercial Cooking Equipment--Gas Commercial Hot Water Measures--Gas Commercial Heat Reclamation--Gas Commercial Wastewater Heat Exchanger--Gas Commercial Windows Measures--Gas Commercial Solar Hot Water--Gas Back-up Industrial Rural Area Lighting Industrial Traffic Signals Relamping Industrial Boiler Measures Industrial Hot Water Measures Industrial Space Heating Measures Industrial Weatherization Measures Industrial Electronics Industry Solvent Emissions Reduction Option # RCI-25 RCI-26 RCI-27 RCI-28 RCI-29 RCI-30 RCI-33 RCI-51 RCI-60 RCI-63 RCI-64 RCI-68 RCI-69 RCI-72 RCI-77 RCI-81 RCI-82 RCI-87 RCI-88 RCI-90 RCI-92 RCI-94 RCI-95 RCI-124 RCI-125 RCI-126 RCI-127 RCI-128 RCI-129 RCI-134 34 2022 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2035 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 $0 $0 -$4 -$19 $19 $62 -$3 -$25 $4 $7 $2 $6 $0 -$1 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 -$1 -$6 -$1 -$4 $0 $0 $0 $0 $3 $8 $0 $1 $0 $0 $0 $0 -$2 -$10 -$3 -$13 -$7 -$28 -$3 -$14 $58 $143 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 201320132022 2035 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Industrial Halon Consumption Reduction Hydropower, Conventional hydro upgrades in OR Geothermal, Enhanced Geothermal Wave, Various buoy & overtopping devices Solar (Nevada), Parabolic trough Wind (from Alberta to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Montana to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Wyoming to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Total - RCI options only Total - PS options only Total - All RCI and PS options Option # RCI-135 PS-2 PS-9 PS-11 PS-14 PS-16 PS-17 PS-18 35 2022 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.14 0.98 4.12 2035 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.20 1.44 6.64 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 14.31 68.12 3.07 20.42 17.37 88.54 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 $0 -$1 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $327 $769 $142 $1,006 $469 $1,775 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 201320132022 2035 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA $23 $11 $46 $49 $27 $20 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo Annex 3b: Tabular cost curve results for the Integration Scenario: ""Moderate Increase in Federal Action, integrated with the Standard RPS"", using full fuel cycle CO2e emission factors and ranked relative to cost-effectiveness over the 2013-2035 period GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Commercial Wood-fueled Space Heat Replacing Gas Commercial Insulation Measures--Gas Heat Commercial Clothes Washer Commercial Laundry Equipment--Gas Industrial Agriculture Irrigation Improvements Schools Building Envelope Measures Commercial Demand Control Ventilation Natural Replacement/Retro Commercial Windows New/Integrated Design Commercial Package Rooftop Measures New/Integrated Design Commercial Insulation Natural Replacement/Retrofit Industrial Biomass-fired CHP Commercial Ice-Maker Improvements Industrial Lumber Conveyor Replacement Commercial Heat Pump Water Heater Industrial Electonics Clean Room Measures Industrial General: Lighting and Controls Industrial Kraft Pulp Measures Industrial Metals Arc Furnace Commercial Package Rooftop Measures Natural Replacement/Retro Commercial Demand Control Ventilation New/Integrated Design Landfill gas, Reciprocating engine Commercial Variable Speed Chiller New/Integrated Design Commercial Hot Water Efficiency Measures Industrial Fruit Storage Measures Commercial Variable Speed Chiller Natural Replacement/Retro Industrial Digester Gas-fired CHP Option # RCI-98 RCI-89 RCI-73 RCI-86 RCI-123 RCI-39 RCI-53 RCI-38 RCI-45 RCI-52 RCI-131 RCI-71 RCI-120 RCI-76 RCI-110 RCI-102 RCI-118 RCI-116 RCI-56 RCI-42 PS-4 RCI-44 RCI-75 RCI-113 RCI-55 RCI-132 36 2022 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.03 2035 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.09 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.00 0.06 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.00 -0.03 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.05 0.05 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.19 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.14 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.06 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.04 0.09 0.49 0.18 1.04 0.02 0.09 0.04 0.16 0.06 0.31 0.00 0.01 0.17 0.80 0.02 0.09 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.23 0.01 0.05 0.01 -0.35 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.19 0.16 0.72 0.10 0.60 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 $0 $1 -$2 -$8 -$11 -$40 $0 $0 -$5 -$18 $0 $0 -$1 -$5 $0 -$1 -$1 -$3 -$7 -$34 -$12 -$67 -$1 -$5 -$3 -$10 -$4 -$16 $0 -$1 -$10 -$40 -$1 -$4 $0 $0 -$3 -$11 $0 -$2 $2 $16 $0 -$1 $0 -$1 -$2 -$8 -$8 -$30 -$4 -$22 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 201320132022 2035 -$3,232 -$2,084 -$464 -$419 -$294 -$212 -$212 -$166 -$125 -$127 -$74 -$91 -$73 -$81 -$88 -$74 -$85 -$72 -$77 -$69 -$69 -$65 -$75 -$60 -$73 -$60 -$62 -$51 -$60 -$50 -$60 -$50 -$60 -$50 -$59 -$49 -$51 -$48 -$37 -$47 $335 -$47 -$52 -$44 -$51 -$43 -$51 -$43 -$49 -$42 -$35 -$37 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Residential Lighting Improvement Residential Refrigerator/Freezer Improvement Industrial Wood Panels Hydraulic Press Industrial Food Storage Measures Industrial Mechanical Pulp Measures Commercial Contols Commissioning HVAC New/Integrated Design Commercial ECM on VAV Boxes Natural Replacement/Retro Commercial LDP New/Integrated Design Industrial General: Motors Measures Industrial Cold Storage Measures Commercial LDP Natural Replacement/Retrofit Commercial Wastewater Heat Exchanger Industrial General: Transformers Commercial Solar Water Heat Commercial Cooking/Food Service Improvements Manufactured Home Weatherization--Insulation Commercial Computer/Server Improvements Industrial Food Processing Measures Residential Heat Pump Water Heater Commercial Refrigeration Improvements Commercial ECM on VAV Boxes New/Integrated Design Commercial Lighting Controls Natural Replacement/Retrofit Commercial Chiller Tower 6F Approach Schools Lighting Measures Commercial Economizer Measures Residential Electric Water Heat Efficiency Commercial Heat Reclamation Measures Commercial Lighting Controls New/Integrated Design Industrial General: Materials Movement Measures Industrial General: Air Compressor Measures Option # RCI-16 RCI-15 RCI-121 RCI-114 RCI-117 RCI-47 RCI-54 RCI-34 RCI-103 RCI-112 RCI-48 RCI-74 RCI-106 RCI-80 RCI-62 RCI-4 RCI-61 RCI-111 RCI-12 RCI-70 RCI-43 RCI-50 RCI-83 RCI-35 RCI-78 RCI-11 RCI-79 RCI-37 RCI-107 RCI-101 37 2022 0.29 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.01 0.24 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.02 0.20 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.06 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.02 2035 0.23 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.04 0.01 0.02 0.43 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.03 0.38 0.03 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.03 0.04 0.11 0.00 0.04 0.03 0.03 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 2.02 5.18 0.01 0.08 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.04 0.02 0.11 0.02 0.08 0.06 0.41 0.02 0.09 0.04 0.20 1.15 5.45 0.01 0.06 0.02 0.09 0.03 0.17 0.04 0.25 0.11 0.52 0.13 0.67 0.08 0.40 0.86 4.57 0.06 0.33 0.00 0.02 0.08 0.56 0.01 0.06 0.07 0.34 0.11 0.53 0.24 1.30 0.00 0.01 0.09 0.45 0.09 0.42 0.08 0.41 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 -$103 -$189 -$1 -$3 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 -$2 -$1 -$4 -$1 -$2 -$2 -$12 -$1 -$3 -$1 -$5 -$35 -$151 $0 -$2 -$1 -$2 -$1 -$5 -$1 -$6 -$3 -$13 -$3 -$16 -$2 -$10 -$21 -$110 -$1 -$8 $0 $0 -$2 -$13 $0 -$1 -$2 -$7 -$2 -$11 -$4 -$26 $0 $0 -$1 -$8 -$1 -$7 -$1 -$7 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 201320132022 2035 -$51 -$37 -$41 -$35 -$39 -$35 -$39 -$35 -$39 -$34 -$31 -$34 -$34 -$30 -$35 -$30 -$31 -$29 -$30 -$28 -$31 -$28 -$28 -$27 -$28 -$27 -$28 -$26 -$27 -$26 -$28 -$26 -$27 -$25 -$25 -$24 -$25 -$24 -$25 -$24 -$26 -$24 -$26 -$23 -$22 -$22 -$23 -$21 -$20 -$21 -$19 -$20 -$17 -$19 -$16 -$18 -$16 -$18 -$15 -$17 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Residential Electronics Improvements Industrial General: Fan Measures Commercial Contols Commissioning HVAC Retrofit Industrial Agriculture Pump and Related Measures Industrial General: Energy Management Commercial DVC Hood Industrial Gas-fired CHP Industrial Electonics Chip Fab Measures Industrial General: Pump Measures Commercial Daylighting New/Integrated Design Commercial Gas-fired CHP Commercial Wood-fueled Space Heat Replacing Electric Industrial Grocery Distribution Measures Commercial Rooftop Condensing Burner Single Family Weatherization--Windows Commercial Low Press. Dist. Complex HVAC New/Integrated Design Single Family Home HVAC Conversion/Upgrade Residential Wood-fueled Heat Replacing Electric Resistance Manufactured Home HVAC Conversion/Upgrade Schools HVAC Industrial Paper Sector Measures Resdential CHP Commercial Daylighting Natural Replacement/Retrofit Tidal current, Water current turbines Commercial Premium HVAC Natural Replacement/Retro Geothermal, Binary hydrothermal Multifamily Weatherization--Windows Commercial Parking Lighting Hydropower, New projects Commercial Exit Signs Option # RCI-22 RCI-104 RCI-58 RCI-122 RCI-108 RCI-65 RCI-130 RCI-109 RCI-105 RCI-36 RCI-96 RCI-97 RCI-115 RCI-84 RCI-9 RCI-40 RCI-3 RCI-32 RCI-2 RCI-41 RCI-119 RCI-31 RCI-49 PS-10 RCI-57 PS-8 RCI-7 RCI-59 PS-1 RCI-66 38 2022 0.06 0.03 0.07 0.02 0.11 0.00 0.36 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.39 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.00 0.19 0.02 0.13 0.01 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.22 0.00 0.56 0.03 0.02 0.26 0.00 2035 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.02 0.21 0.00 0.72 0.01 0.06 0.01 0.93 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.11 0.00 0.32 0.04 0.25 0.01 0.01 0.13 0.01 0.15 0.00 0.38 0.05 0.04 0.18 0.00 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.39 1.26 0.16 0.76 0.33 1.08 0.11 0.36 0.54 2.60 0.02 0.08 1.46 8.52 0.02 0.08 0.15 0.71 0.02 0.12 1.48 9.83 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.07 0.01 0.04 0.32 1.51 0.01 0.05 0.84 4.25 0.09 0.53 0.53 2.97 0.02 0.09 0.02 0.09 0.27 1.53 0.02 0.11 0.59 2.79 0.00 0.02 1.76 7.26 0.16 0.76 0.07 0.47 0.68 3.23 0.01 0.05 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 -$1 -$21 -$2 -$12 -$3 -$15 -$1 -$5 -$4 -$31 $0 -$1 -$20 -$87 $0 $0 $0 -$3 $0 $0 $3 $12 $0 $0 $0 $1 $0 $0 $8 $17 $0 $1 $22 $56 $2 $7 $14 $42 $1 $1 $1 $1 $6 $26 $1 $2 $14 $55 $0 $1 $56 $173 $7 $19 $3 $14 $25 $98 $1 $1 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 201320132022 2035 -$3 -$16 -$12 -$15 -$8 -$14 -$11 -$14 -$8 -$12 -$7 -$11 -$14 -$10 $1 -$6 $3 -$4 $7 $0 $2 $1 $17 $7 $21 $9 $23 $10 $24 $11 $23 $12 $26 $13 $26 $13 $27 $14 $41 $16 $31 $17 $24 $17 $33 $19 $24 $20 $38 $23 $32 $24 $43 $25 $48 $29 $37 $30 $49 $32 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Commercial Premium HVAC New/Integrated Design Manufactured Home Weatherization--Windows Single Family Weatherization--Insulation Animal manure, Reciprocating engine Wastewater treatment gas, Reciprocating engines Residential Cooking Appliance Improvement Wind (in OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Offshore Wind, Floating WTG Residential Gravity Film Heat Exchanger Industrial Cement Production Emissions Reduction Woody residues, Steam-electric - brownfield Residential Solar Water Heat--Electric Back-up Multifamily Weatherization--Insulation Commercial Signage Residential Dishwasher Improvement Industrial Solar PV Commercial Ground-source Heat Pump Commercial Solar PV Residential Solar Photovoltaic Woody residues, Steam-electric - greenfield Residential Refrigerator Recycle Residential Laundry Appliance Improvement Solar, Utility-scale Photovoltaic arrays Commercial Heating Measures--Gas Commercial Wood-fueled Space Heat Replacing Oil/LPG Home Energy Monitor Residential Cooling Appliances Commercial Insulation Measures--Gas Residential Gas Water Heat Measures Residential Gas Furnace Upgrade Option # RCI-46 RCI-5 RCI-8 PS-5 PS-3 RCI-18 PS-15 PS-12 RCI-17 RCI-133 PS-6 RCI-19 RCI-6 RCI-67 RCI-14 RCI-136 RCI-85 RCI-100 RCI-10 PS-7 RCI-21 RCI-13 PS-13 RCI-91 RCI-99 RCI-20 RCI-1 RCI-93 RCI-23 RCI-24 39 2022 0.00 0.02 0.09 0.08 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.19 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.11 0.00 0.14 0.09 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2035 0.00 0.04 0.15 0.07 0.01 0.01 0.11 0.64 0.08 0.00 0.12 0.29 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.17 0.00 0.20 0.13 0.10 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.00 0.01 0.11 0.53 0.40 2.00 0.54 1.45 0.00 0.11 0.03 0.15 0.00 1.24 0.00 6.97 0.17 0.96 -0.01 -0.02 0.00 1.28 0.92 4.18 0.08 0.39 0.02 0.08 0.02 0.09 0.55 2.52 0.00 0.02 0.65 2.97 0.43 1.95 0.00 0.54 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.24 0.07 0.33 0.01 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 $0 $0 $6 $18 $19 $70 $27 $52 $0 $4 $2 $6 $0 $56 $0 $315 $12 $45 -$1 -$1 $0 $90 $104 $321 $9 $36 $2 $8 $3 $11 $98 $312 $1 $3 $124 $395 $83 $265 $0 $79 $1 $3 $12 $44 $17 $68 $4 $12 $0 $0 $8 $28 $6 $21 $0 -$2 $3 $4 -$3 -$12 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 201320132022 2035 $53 $34 $52 $34 $47 $35 $50 $36 NA $38 $70 $43 NA $45 NA $45 $72 $46 $73 $51 NA $70 $113 $77 $122 $91 $155 $106 $162 $112 $178 $124 $181 $125 $190 $133 $193 $136 NA $147 $223 $156 $266 $187 $247 $207 $737 $422 $729 $532 $2,783 $2,026 $5,490 $3,997 $7,662 $7,117 NA NA NA NA CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Multifamily HVAC--Gas Heat Residential Gas Heat Windows Residential Gas Heat, Insulation/Ducts/Weatherization Residential Multi-Measure Gas Heat Residential Solar Hot Water--Gas Back-up Residential Heat/Energy Recovery Ventillation--Gas Residential Wood-fueled Heat Replacing Oil/LPG Commercial Windows Natural Replacement/Retrofit Commercial Refrigeration Improvements Commercial Wastewater Treatment Improvements Commercial Water Supply Improvements Commercial Fume Hood Commercial Street Lighting Commercial Vending Machines Commercial Transformers Commercial Heating Duct Measures Commercial Energy Management Systems Commercial Cooking Equipment--Gas Commercial Hot Water Measures--Gas Commercial Heat Reclamation--Gas Commercial Wastewater Heat Exchanger--Gas Commercial Windows Measures--Gas Commercial Solar Hot Water--Gas Back-up Industrial Rural Area Lighting Industrial Traffic Signals Relamping Industrial Boiler Measures Industrial Hot Water Measures Industrial Space Heating Measures Industrial Weatherization Measures Industrial Electronics Industry Solvent Emissions Reduction Option # RCI-25 RCI-26 RCI-27 RCI-28 RCI-29 RCI-30 RCI-33 RCI-51 RCI-60 RCI-63 RCI-64 RCI-68 RCI-69 RCI-72 RCI-77 RCI-81 RCI-82 RCI-87 RCI-88 RCI-90 RCI-92 RCI-94 RCI-95 RCI-124 RCI-125 RCI-126 RCI-127 RCI-128 RCI-129 RCI-134 40 2022 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2035 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 $0 $0 -$4 -$19 $19 $62 -$3 -$25 $4 $7 $2 $6 $0 -$1 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 -$1 -$6 -$1 -$4 $0 $0 $0 $0 $3 $8 $0 $1 $0 $0 $0 $0 -$2 -$10 -$3 -$13 -$7 -$28 -$3 -$14 $58 $143 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 201320132022 2035 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Industrial Halon Consumption Reduction Hydropower, Conventional hydro upgrades in OR Geothermal, Enhanced Geothermal Wave, Various buoy & overtopping devices Solar (Nevada), Parabolic trough Wind (from Alberta to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Montana to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Wyoming to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Total - RCI options only Total - PS options only Total - All RCI and PS options Option # RCI-135 PS-2 PS-9 PS-11 PS-14 PS-16 PS-17 PS-18 41 2022 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.64 1.15 4.79 2035 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.37 1.75 8.12 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 17.00 82.20 3.66 24.84 107.0 20.65 3 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 $0 -$1 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $327 $769 $142 $1,006 $469 $1,775 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 201320132022 2035 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA $19 $9 $39 $41 $23 $17 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo Annex 4a: Tabular cost curve results for the Integration Scenario: "Moderate Increase in Federal Action plus more State Action, integrated with the Standard RPS", using point-of-combustion CO2e emission factors and ranked relative to cost-effectiveness over the 2013-2035 period GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Commercial Insulation Measures--Gas Heat Schools Building Envelope Measures Commercial Laundry Equipment--Gas Commercial Heating Measures--Gas Commercial Clothes Washer Commercial Demand Control Ventilation Natural Replacement/Retro Industrial Agriculture Irrigation Improvements Commercial Heat Reclamation--Gas Commercial Windows New/Integrated Design Industrial Biomass-fired CHP Commercial Package Rooftop Measures New/Integrated Design Commercial Windows Natural Replacement/Retrofit Commercial Insulation Natural Replacement/Retrofit Industrial Digester Gas-fired CHP Commercial Demand Control Ventilation New/Integrated Design Commercial Windows Measures--Gas Industrial Traffic Signals Relamping Commercial Ice-Maker Improvements Commercial Fume Hood Commercial Transformers Industrial Lumber Conveyor Replacement Commercial Refrigeration Improvements Commercial Wastewater Treatment Improvements Industrial Rural Area Lighting Commercial Heating Duct Measures Commercial Energy Management Systems Option # RCI-89 RCI-39 RCI-86 RCI-91 RCI-73 RCI-53 RCI-123 RCI-90 RCI-38 RCI-131 RCI-45 RCI-51 RCI-52 RCI-132 RCI-42 RCI-94 RCI-125 RCI-71 RCI-68 RCI-77 RCI-120 RCI-60 RCI-63 RCI-124 RCI-81 RCI-82 42 2022 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.01 2035 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.19 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.02 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.07 0.34 0.07 0.23 0.05 0.16 0.02 0.08 0.00 0.03 0.40 2.29 0.01 0.05 0.03 0.15 0.09 0.48 0.23 1.32 0.01 0.05 0.01 0.05 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.10 0.04 0.20 0.05 0.23 0.04 0.18 0.02 0.09 0.09 0.39 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.06 0.29 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 -$2 -$8 $0 $0 $0 $0 $1 -$7 -$14 -$54 -$10 -$32 -$6 -$21 -$3 -$11 -$1 -$3 -$48 -$254 -$1 -$4 -$3 -$14 -$9 -$42 -$20 -$112 -$1 -$4 $1 -$4 $0 -$2 -$2 -$7 -$3 -$15 -$4 -$16 -$4 -$13 -$2 -$7 -$7 -$28 $0 $0 $0 -$1 -$5 -$20 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 2013- 20132022 2035 -$558 -$510 -$261 -$262 -$249 -$209 $97 -$190 -$216 -$161 -$146 -$139 -$137 -$136 -$149 -$132 -$131 -$117 -$119 -$111 -$105 -$91 -$93 -$89 -$96 -$87 -$88 -$85 -$74 -$84 $70 -$81 -$88 -$73 -$89 -$73 -$89 -$73 -$87 -$73 -$88 -$72 -$84 -$72 -$82 -$72 -$80 -$70 -$78 -$69 -$78 -$69 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Commercial Hot Water Efficiency Measures Commercial Computer/Server Improvements Commercial Water Supply Improvements Commercial Street Lighting Commercial Vending Machines Commercial Heat Pump Water Heater Industrial Electonics Clean Room Measures Industrial Kraft Pulp Measures Commercial Package Rooftop Measures Natural Replacement/Retro Industrial Metals Arc Furnace Industrial General: Lighting and Controls Commercial Cooking/Food Service Improvements Commercial Variable Speed Chiller New/Integrated Design Industrial Fruit Storage Measures Commercial Wood-fueled Space Heat Replacing Electric Commercial Wastewater Heat Exchanger Commercial Variable Speed Chiller Natural Replacement/Retro Commercial Contols Commissioning HVAC New/Integrated Design Industrial Wood Panels Hydraulic Press Industrial Food Storage Measures Industrial Mechanical Pulp Measures Residential Lighting Improvement Industrial General: Motors Measures Landfill gas, Reciprocating engine Residential Refrigerator/Freezer Improvement Industrial Cold Storage Measures Commercial LDP New/Integrated Design Industrial General: Transformers Commercial Solar Water Heat Commercial ECM on VAV Boxes Natural Replacement/Retro Option # RCI-75 RCI-61 RCI-64 RCI-69 RCI-72 RCI-76 RCI-110 RCI-118 RCI-56 RCI-116 RCI-102 RCI-62 RCI-44 RCI-113 RCI-97 RCI-74 RCI-55 RCI-47 RCI-121 RCI-114 RCI-117 RCI-16 RCI-103 PS-4 RCI-15 RCI-112 RCI-34 RCI-106 RCI-80 RCI-54 43 2022 0.00 0.08 0.01 0.03 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.29 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.00 0.01 0.00 2035 0.01 0.13 0.01 0.05 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.06 0.04 0.00 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.05 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.21 0.01 -0.04 0.04 0.02 0.04 0.01 0.02 0.01 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.02 0.07 0.32 1.89 0.04 0.17 0.12 0.65 0.01 0.05 0.07 0.34 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.09 0.05 0.21 0.00 0.01 0.16 0.76 0.11 0.58 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.21 0.01 0.09 0.02 0.11 0.15 0.69 0.02 0.12 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.01 0.05 1.94 4.93 0.02 0.10 0.01 -0.45 0.10 0.54 0.04 0.22 0.07 0.45 0.02 0.10 0.04 0.19 0.01 0.08 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 -$1 -$5 -$29 -$126 -$2 -$11 -$8 -$42 -$1 -$3 -$5 -$22 $0 -$1 -$1 -$6 -$3 -$13 $0 $0 -$12 -$46 -$8 -$33 $0 -$1 -$3 -$12 -$1 -$5 -$1 -$6 -$9 -$36 -$1 -$7 $0 -$1 $0 -$1 -$1 -$2 -$118 -$216 -$1 -$4 $4 $19 -$5 -$23 -$2 -$9 -$3 -$19 -$1 -$4 -$2 -$8 -$1 -$3 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 2013- 20132022 2035 -$78 -$67 -$90 -$67 -$62 -$65 -$64 -$64 -$65 -$64 -$77 -$64 -$75 -$63 -$75 -$63 -$67 -$62 -$74 -$62 -$73 -$61 -$71 -$58 -$67 -$57 -$66 -$57 -$55 -$56 -$61 -$54 -$61 -$53 -$52 -$53 -$55 -$49 -$55 -$49 -$55 -$49 -$61 -$44 -$48 -$44 $341 -$43 -$48 -$43 -$46 -$42 -$48 -$41 -$45 -$41 -$44 -$41 -$45 -$41 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Industrial Food Processing Measures Commercial Refrigeration Improvements Commercial ECM on VAV Boxes New/Integrated Design Commercial Chiller Tower 6F Approach Commercial LDP Natural Replacement/Retrofit Commercial Economizer Measures Commercial Heat Reclamation Measures Commercial Lighting Controls New/Integrated Design Industrial General: Materials Movement Measures Industrial General: Air Compressor Measures Commercial Lighting Controls Natural Replacement/Retrofit Industrial General: Fan Measures Schools Lighting Measures Industrial Agriculture Pump and Related Measures Manufactured Home Weatherization--Insulation Residential Heat Pump Water Heater Industrial General: Energy Management Commercial DVC Hood Commercial Contols Commissioning HVAC Retrofit Residential Electric Water Heat Efficiency Industrial Electonics Chip Fab Measures Industrial Gas-fired CHP Industrial General: Pump Measures Residential Electronics Improvements Industrial Cement Production Emissions Reduction Commercial Gas-fired CHP Commercial Daylighting New/Integrated Design Industrial Grocery Distribution Measures Commercial Rooftop Condensing Burner Commercial Low Press. Dist. Complex HVAC New/Integrated Design Option # RCI-111 RCI-70 RCI-43 RCI-83 RCI-48 RCI-78 RCI-79 RCI-37 RCI-107 RCI-101 RCI-50 RCI-104 RCI-35 RCI-122 RCI-4 RCI-12 RCI-108 RCI-65 RCI-58 RCI-11 RCI-109 RCI-130 RCI-105 RCI-22 RCI-133 RCI-96 RCI-36 RCI-115 RCI-84 RCI-40 44 2022 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.23 0.03 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.04 0.02 0.03 0.02 0.19 0.13 0.01 0.07 0.05 0.00 0.52 0.04 0.44 0.00 0.55 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2035 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.40 0.05 0.00 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.07 0.03 0.02 0.04 0.35 0.23 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.01 0.98 0.06 0.49 0.00 1.27 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.09 0.44 0.07 0.37 0.00 0.02 0.01 0.07 1.10 5.16 0.12 0.58 0.00 0.01 0.10 0.50 0.10 0.46 0.10 0.45 0.08 0.53 0.18 0.84 0.07 0.34 0.13 0.40 0.11 0.53 0.82 4.32 0.60 2.87 0.03 0.09 0.32 1.03 0.23 1.23 0.02 0.09 2.06 11.76 0.17 0.79 2.62 8.41 -0.02 -0.05 2.09 13.55 0.02 0.13 0.02 0.08 0.01 0.04 0.01 0.05 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 -$4 -$17 -$3 -$15 $0 -$1 -$1 -$2 -$45 -$190 -$4 -$21 $0 $0 -$3 -$16 -$3 -$15 -$3 -$15 -$3 -$17 -$5 -$26 -$2 -$11 -$4 -$12 -$4 -$16 -$24 -$126 -$15 -$79 -$1 -$3 -$6 -$27 -$5 -$30 $0 -$2 -$54 -$251 -$3 -$16 -$9 -$166 $0 $1 -$29 -$175 $0 -$2 $0 -$1 $0 $0 $0 $0 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 2013- 20132022 2035 -$42 -$39 -$42 -$39 -$41 -$38 -$39 -$37 -$40 -$37 -$37 -$36 -$34 -$34 -$33 -$33 -$33 -$33 -$32 -$32 -$35 -$32 -$30 -$31 -$33 -$31 -$28 -$30 -$32 -$30 -$30 -$29 -$25 -$28 -$24 -$27 -$20 -$26 -$22 -$24 -$17 -$22 -$26 -$21 -$15 -$21 -$3 -$20 $2 -$15 -$14 -$13 -$7 -$12 $2 -$8 $4 -$7 $7 -$4 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Industrial Paper Sector Measures Schools HVAC Resdential CHP Commercial Parking Lighting Commercial Exit Signs Single Family Weatherization--Windows Residential Wood-fueled Heat Replacing Electric Resistance Commercial Daylighting Natural Replacement/Retrofit Commercial Signage Commercial Premium HVAC New/Integrated Design Commercial Premium HVAC Natural Replacement/Retro Single Family Home HVAC Conversion/Upgrade Manufactured Home HVAC Conversion/Upgrade Tidal current, Water current turbines Geothermal, Binary hydrothermal Multifamily Weatherization--Windows Animal manure, Reciprocating engine Hydropower, New projects Wastewater treatment gas, Reciprocating engines Manufactured Home Weatherization--Windows Single Family Weatherization--Insulation Offshore Wind, Floating WTG Woody residues, Steam-electric - brownfield Residential Cooking Appliance Improvement Residential Gravity Film Heat Exchanger Industrial Solar PV Commercial Solar PV Residential Solar Water Heat--Electric Back-up Commercial Ground-source Heat Pump Woody residues, Steam-electric - greenfield Option # RCI-119 RCI-41 RCI-31 RCI-59 RCI-66 RCI-9 RCI-32 RCI-49 RCI-67 RCI-46 RCI-57 RCI-3 RCI-2 PS-10 PS-8 RCI-7 PS-5 PS-1 PS-3 RCI-5 RCI-8 PS-12 PS-6 RCI-18 RCI-17 RCI-136 RCI-100 RCI-19 RCI-85 PS-7 45 2022 0.00 0.01 0.21 0.02 0.00 0.07 0.15 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.19 0.13 0.20 0.51 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.09 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.04 0.17 0.19 0.19 0.00 0.00 2035 0.01 0.01 0.40 0.05 0.00 0.10 0.29 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.31 0.24 0.14 0.36 0.05 0.06 0.17 0.01 0.04 0.15 0.24 0.18 0.08 0.08 0.25 0.28 0.27 0.00 0.05 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.02 0.09 0.02 0.09 0.84 4.76 0.08 0.52 0.01 0.05 0.32 1.47 0.63 3.52 0.02 0.10 0.03 0.16 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.83 4.11 0.52 2.90 0.52 2.55 1.29 6.37 0.16 0.73 0.07 0.76 0.06 1.88 0.00 0.10 0.11 0.52 0.42 2.07 0.00 2.53 0.00 1.81 0.18 0.98 0.16 0.91 0.81 3.66 0.91 4.11 0.88 3.96 0.01 0.03 0.00 0.49 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 $0 $0 $1 $0 $5 $16 $2 $6 $0 $1 $9 $19 $17 $46 $1 $1 $1 $2 $0 $0 $0 $0 $27 $68 $18 $52 $16 $62 $45 $174 $8 $22 $4 $27 $3 $66 $0 $4 $7 $23 $26 $96 $0 $129 $0 $93 $15 $51 $14 $51 $87 $229 $114 $309 $119 $367 $1 $3 $0 $55 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 2013- 20132022 2035 $12 -$1 $28 $2 $6 $3 $30 $12 $30 $13 $28 $13 $26 $13 $27 $13 $42 $15 $34 $15 $33 $16 $32 $17 $34 $18 $31 $24 $35 $27 $50 $29 $56 $35 $45 $35 NA $43 $65 $44 $62 $46 NA $51 NA $51 $84 $52 $85 $56 $107 $63 $124 $75 $135 $93 $154 $101 NA $112 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Multifamily Weatherization--Insulation Residential Dishwasher Improvement Commercial Wood-fueled Space Heat Replacing Oil/LPG Residential Solar Photovoltaic Residential Refrigerator Recycle Residential Laundry Appliance Improvement Solar, Utility-scale Photovoltaic arrays Residential Cooling Appliances Commercial Wood-fueled Space Heat Replacing Gas Home Energy Monitor Commercial Insulation Measures--Gas Residential Gas Water Heat Measures Residential Gas Furnace Upgrade Multifamily HVAC--Gas Heat Residential Gas Heat Windows Residential Gas Heat, Insulation/Ducts/Weatherization Residential Multi-Measure Gas Heat Residential Solar Hot Water--Gas Back-up Residential Heat/Energy Recovery Ventillation--Gas Residential Wood-fueled Heat Replacing Oil/LPG Commercial Cooking Equipment--Gas Commercial Hot Water Measures--Gas Commercial Wastewater Heat Exchanger--Gas Commercial Solar Hot Water--Gas Back-up Industrial Boiler Measures Industrial Hot Water Measures Industrial Space Heating Measures Industrial Weatherization Measures Industrial Electronics Industry Solvent Emissions Reduction Industrial Halon Consumption Reduction Option # RCI-6 RCI-14 RCI-99 RCI-10 RCI-21 RCI-13 PS-13 RCI-1 RCI-98 RCI-20 RCI-93 RCI-23 RCI-24 RCI-25 RCI-26 RCI-27 RCI-28 RCI-29 RCI-30 RCI-33 RCI-87 RCI-88 RCI-92 RCI-95 RCI-126 RCI-127 RCI-128 RCI-129 RCI-134 RCI-135 46 2022 0.02 0.03 0.00 0.10 0.00 0.07 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2035 0.03 0.05 0.00 0.15 0.00 0.13 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.08 0.41 0.13 0.63 0.00 0.00 0.48 2.16 0.00 0.02 0.30 1.56 0.06 0.30 0.01 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 $12 $48 $24 $85 $0 $0 $111 $353 $1 $4 $94 $351 $17 $69 $7 $22 $0 -$4 $68 $229 $0 -$2 $0 -$20 -$3 -$12 $0 -$2 -$5 -$20 $21 $67 -$3 -$27 $4 $8 $3 $7 -$1 -$6 -$2 -$7 -$3 -$12 $0 $0 $0 $1 -$3 -$13 -$4 -$16 -$7 -$31 -$4 -$15 $75 $160 $0 -$1 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 2013- 20132022 2035 $155 $117 $192 $135 $428 $151 $230 $163 $265 $189 $315 $225 $286 $230 $770 $548 $401 $1,125 $2,943 $2,174 $9,255 $8,711 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Hydropower, Conventional hydro upgrades in OR Geothermal, Enhanced Geothermal Wave, Various buoy & overtopping devices Solar (Nevada), Parabolic trough Wind (in OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Alberta to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Montana to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Wyoming to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Total - RCI options only Total - PS options only Total - All RCI and PS options Option # PS-2 PS-9 PS-11 PS-14 PS-15 PS-16 PS-17 PS-18 47 2022 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.27 0.78 6.05 2035 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.74 1.19 9.93 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 114.3 23.98 8 2.00 16.34 130.7 25.99 2 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $262 -$91 $89 $698 $351 $607 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 2013- 20132022 2035 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA $11 -$1 $44 $43 $14 $5 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo Annex 4b: Tabular cost curve results for the Integration Scenario: " Moderate Increase in Federal Action plus more State Action, integrated with the Standard RPS ", using full fuel cycle CO2e emission factors and ranked relative to costeffectiveness over the 2013-2035 period GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Commercial Insulation Measures--Gas Heat Schools Building Envelope Measures Commercial Laundry Equipment--Gas Commercial Heating Measures--Gas Commercial Clothes Washer Commercial Demand Control Ventilation Natural Replacement/Retro Industrial Agriculture Irrigation Improvements Commercial Heat Reclamation--Gas Landfill gas, Reciprocating engine Commercial Windows New/Integrated Design Industrial Biomass-fired CHP Commercial Package Rooftop Measures New/Integrated Design Commercial Windows Natural Replacement/Retrofit Commercial Insulation Natural Replacement/Retrofit Industrial Digester Gas-fired CHP Commercial Demand Control Ventilation New/Integrated Design Commercial Windows Measures--Gas Industrial Traffic Signals Relamping Commercial Ice-Maker Improvements Commercial Fume Hood Commercial Transformers Industrial Lumber Conveyor Replacement Commercial Refrigeration Improvements Commercial Wastewater Treatment Improvements Industrial Rural Area Lighting Commercial Heating Duct Measures Option # RCI-89 RCI-39 RCI-86 RCI-91 RCI-73 RCI-53 RCI-123 RCI-90 PS-4 RCI-38 RCI-131 RCI-45 RCI-51 RCI-52 RCI-132 RCI-42 RCI-94 RCI-125 RCI-71 RCI-68 RCI-77 RCI-120 RCI-60 RCI-63 RCI-124 RCI-81 48 2022 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 2035 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.01 -0.02 0.00 0.23 0.01 0.01 0.05 0.14 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.03 0.00 0.00 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.08 0.41 0.08 0.28 0.06 0.19 0.02 0.10 0.03 -0.19 0.01 0.03 0.48 2.77 0.01 0.06 0.04 0.19 0.11 0.58 0.27 1.60 0.01 0.06 0.01 0.06 0.01 0.03 0.02 0.12 0.04 0.25 0.05 0.27 0.05 0.21 0.02 0.11 0.11 0.48 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 -$2 -$8 $0 $0 $0 $0 $1 -$7 -$14 -$54 -$10 -$32 -$6 -$21 -$3 -$11 $4 $19 -$1 -$3 -$48 -$254 -$1 -$4 -$3 -$14 -$9 -$42 -$20 -$112 -$1 -$4 $1 -$4 $0 -$2 -$2 -$7 -$3 -$15 -$4 -$16 -$4 -$13 -$2 -$7 -$7 -$28 $0 $0 $0 -$1 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 2013- 20132022 2035 -$469 -$423 -$220 -$217 -$209 -$174 $81 -$157 -$182 -$133 -$123 -$116 -$115 -$113 -$125 -$109 $146 -$103 -$111 -$97 -$100 -$92 -$88 -$75 -$78 -$74 -$81 -$72 -$74 -$70 -$62 -$70 $59 -$68 -$74 -$61 -$75 -$60 -$75 -$60 -$73 -$60 -$74 -$60 -$71 -$60 -$69 -$60 -$68 -$58 -$66 -$57 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Commercial Energy Management Systems Commercial Hot Water Efficiency Measures Commercial Computer/Server Improvements Commercial Water Supply Improvements Commercial Street Lighting Commercial Heat Pump Water Heater Commercial Vending Machines Industrial Electonics Clean Room Measures Industrial Kraft Pulp Measures Commercial Package Rooftop Measures Natural Replacement/Retro Industrial Metals Arc Furnace Industrial General: Lighting and Controls Commercial Cooking/Food Service Improvements Commercial Variable Speed Chiller New/Integrated Design Industrial Fruit Storage Measures Commercial Wood-fueled Space Heat Replacing Electric Commercial Wastewater Heat Exchanger Commercial Variable Speed Chiller Natural Replacement/Retro Commercial Contols Commissioning HVAC New/Integrated Design Industrial Wood Panels Hydraulic Press Industrial Food Storage Measures Industrial Mechanical Pulp Measures Residential Lighting Improvement Industrial General: Motors Measures Residential Refrigerator/Freezer Improvement Industrial Cold Storage Measures Industrial General: Transformers Commercial LDP New/Integrated Design Commercial Solar Water Heat Commercial ECM on VAV Boxes Natural Replacement/Retro Option # RCI-82 RCI-75 RCI-61 RCI-64 RCI-69 RCI-76 RCI-72 RCI-110 RCI-118 RCI-56 RCI-116 RCI-102 RCI-62 RCI-44 RCI-113 RCI-97 RCI-74 RCI-55 RCI-47 RCI-121 RCI-114 RCI-117 RCI-16 RCI-103 RCI-15 RCI-112 RCI-106 RCI-34 RCI-80 RCI-54 49 2022 0.01 0.00 0.10 0.01 0.03 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.04 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.33 0.01 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.00 2035 0.03 0.01 0.17 0.01 0.06 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.00 0.07 0.05 0.00 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.06 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.26 0.01 0.06 0.02 0.01 0.05 0.02 0.01 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.07 0.35 0.02 0.09 0.38 2.28 0.05 0.21 0.14 0.78 0.08 0.42 0.01 0.06 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.11 0.06 0.26 0.00 0.01 0.19 0.91 0.13 0.70 0.00 0.02 0.05 0.25 0.02 0.11 0.03 0.13 0.18 0.83 0.02 0.15 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.01 0.06 2.31 5.91 0.02 0.12 0.12 0.66 0.05 0.26 0.03 0.12 0.08 0.55 0.05 0.23 0.02 0.09 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 -$5 -$20 -$1 -$5 -$29 -$126 -$2 -$11 -$8 -$42 -$5 -$22 -$1 -$3 $0 -$1 -$1 -$6 -$3 -$13 $0 $0 -$12 -$46 -$8 -$33 $0 -$1 -$3 -$12 -$1 -$5 -$1 -$6 -$9 -$36 -$1 -$7 $0 -$1 $0 -$1 -$1 -$2 -$118 -$216 -$1 -$4 -$5 -$23 -$2 -$9 -$1 -$4 -$3 -$19 -$2 -$8 -$1 -$3 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 2013- 20132022 2035 -$66 -$57 -$66 -$55 -$75 -$55 -$52 -$54 -$54 -$53 -$64 -$53 -$55 -$53 -$63 -$53 -$63 -$52 -$57 -$52 -$62 -$51 -$61 -$51 -$60 -$48 -$56 -$48 -$56 -$47 -$46 -$46 -$51 -$44 -$51 -$44 -$43 -$44 -$47 -$41 -$46 -$40 -$46 -$40 -$51 -$37 -$40 -$36 -$41 -$35 -$39 -$35 -$38 -$34 -$40 -$34 -$37 -$34 -$38 -$34 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Industrial Food Processing Measures Commercial Refrigeration Improvements Commercial ECM on VAV Boxes New/Integrated Design Commercial Chiller Tower 6F Approach Commercial LDP Natural Replacement/Retrofit Commercial Economizer Measures Commercial Heat Reclamation Measures Commercial Lighting Controls New/Integrated Design Industrial General: Materials Movement Measures Industrial General: Air Compressor Measures Commercial Lighting Controls Natural Replacement/Retrofit Industrial General: Fan Measures Schools Lighting Measures Industrial Agriculture Pump and Related Measures Manufactured Home Weatherization--Insulation Residential Heat Pump Water Heater Industrial General: Energy Management Commercial DVC Hood Commercial Contols Commissioning HVAC Retrofit Residential Electric Water Heat Efficiency Industrial Electonics Chip Fab Measures Industrial Gas-fired CHP Industrial General: Pump Measures Residential Electronics Improvements Industrial Cement Production Emissions Reduction Commercial Gas-fired CHP Commercial Daylighting New/Integrated Design Industrial Grocery Distribution Measures Commercial Rooftop Condensing Burner Commercial Low Press. Dist. Complex HVAC New/Integrated Design Option # RCI-111 RCI-70 RCI-43 RCI-83 RCI-48 RCI-78 RCI-79 RCI-37 RCI-107 RCI-101 RCI-50 RCI-104 RCI-35 RCI-122 RCI-4 RCI-12 RCI-108 RCI-65 RCI-58 RCI-11 RCI-109 RCI-130 RCI-105 RCI-22 RCI-133 RCI-96 RCI-36 RCI-115 RCI-84 RCI-40 50 2022 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.27 0.03 0.00 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.22 0.15 0.01 0.08 0.06 0.00 0.61 0.04 0.52 0.00 0.64 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 2035 0.04 0.04 0.00 0.01 0.49 0.06 0.00 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.03 0.02 0.05 0.43 0.28 0.01 0.06 0.12 0.01 1.21 0.08 0.60 0.00 1.55 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.01 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.11 0.53 0.08 0.45 0.00 0.03 0.02 0.08 1.31 6.23 0.14 0.70 0.00 0.01 0.12 0.60 0.12 0.56 0.11 0.55 0.09 0.64 0.21 1.01 0.09 0.42 0.15 0.48 0.13 0.64 0.98 5.22 0.72 3.46 0.03 0.11 0.38 1.24 0.27 1.48 0.02 0.11 2.44 14.20 0.20 0.95 3.12 10.12 -0.02 -0.06 2.47 16.39 0.02 0.16 0.02 0.10 0.01 0.05 0.01 0.06 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 -$4 -$17 -$3 -$15 $0 -$1 -$1 -$2 -$45 -$190 -$4 -$21 $0 $0 -$3 -$16 -$3 -$15 -$3 -$15 -$3 -$17 -$5 -$26 -$2 -$11 -$4 -$12 -$4 -$16 -$24 -$126 -$15 -$79 -$1 -$3 -$6 -$27 -$5 -$30 $0 -$2 -$54 -$251 -$3 -$16 -$9 -$166 $0 $1 -$29 -$175 $0 -$2 $0 -$1 $0 $0 $0 $0 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 2013- 20132022 2035 -$35 -$33 -$35 -$33 -$35 -$32 -$32 -$31 -$34 -$30 -$31 -$30 -$29 -$28 -$28 -$27 -$28 -$27 -$27 -$27 -$30 -$26 -$25 -$26 -$28 -$25 -$24 -$25 -$27 -$25 -$25 -$24 -$21 -$23 -$21 -$23 -$17 -$22 -$19 -$20 -$14 -$18 -$22 -$18 -$13 -$17 -$3 -$16 $2 -$12 -$12 -$11 -$6 -$10 $2 -$7 $3 -$6 $6 -$3 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Industrial Paper Sector Measures Schools HVAC Resdential CHP Commercial Parking Lighting Commercial Exit Signs Single Family Weatherization--Windows Residential Wood-fueled Heat Replacing Electric Resistance Commercial Daylighting Natural Replacement/Retrofit Commercial Signage Commercial Premium HVAC New/Integrated Design Commercial Premium HVAC Natural Replacement/Retro Single Family Home HVAC Conversion/Upgrade Manufactured Home HVAC Conversion/Upgrade Tidal current, Water current turbines Geothermal, Binary hydrothermal Multifamily Weatherization--Windows Hydropower, New projects Animal manure, Reciprocating engine Wastewater treatment gas, Reciprocating engines Manufactured Home Weatherization--Windows Single Family Weatherization--Insulation Offshore Wind, Floating WTG Residential Cooking Appliance Improvement Residential Gravity Film Heat Exchanger Industrial Solar PV Woody residues, Steam-electric - brownfield Commercial Solar PV Residential Solar Water Heat--Electric Back-up Commercial Ground-source Heat Pump Multifamily Weatherization--Insulation Option # RCI-119 RCI-41 RCI-31 RCI-59 RCI-66 RCI-9 RCI-32 RCI-49 RCI-67 RCI-46 RCI-57 RCI-3 RCI-2 PS-10 PS-8 RCI-7 PS-1 PS-5 PS-3 RCI-5 RCI-8 PS-12 RCI-18 RCI-17 RCI-136 PS-6 RCI-100 RCI-19 RCI-85 RCI-6 51 2022 0.00 0.01 0.24 0.02 0.00 0.08 0.18 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.22 0.15 0.24 0.59 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.00 0.03 0.11 0.00 0.05 0.05 0.20 0.00 0.23 0.22 0.00 0.02 2035 0.01 0.01 0.49 0.06 0.00 0.13 0.36 0.01 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.38 0.30 0.18 0.45 0.06 0.21 0.08 0.01 0.05 0.19 0.30 0.10 0.09 0.30 0.16 0.34 0.33 0.00 0.04 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.02 0.11 0.03 0.11 1.00 5.75 0.09 0.63 0.01 0.06 0.38 1.77 0.75 4.26 0.02 0.13 0.04 0.19 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.03 0.99 4.96 0.62 3.51 0.61 3.08 1.53 7.70 0.19 0.89 0.07 2.32 0.08 0.94 0.00 0.13 0.13 0.63 0.50 2.50 0.00 3.15 0.21 1.18 0.19 1.10 0.97 4.41 0.00 1.64 1.09 4.95 1.05 4.78 0.01 0.03 0.10 0.50 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 $0 $0 $1 $0 $5 $16 $2 $6 $0 $1 $9 $19 $17 $46 $1 $1 $1 $2 $0 $0 $0 $0 $27 $68 $18 $52 $16 $62 $45 $174 $8 $22 $3 $66 $4 $27 $0 $4 $7 $23 $26 $96 $0 $129 $15 $51 $14 $51 $87 $229 $0 $93 $114 $309 $119 $367 $1 $3 $12 $48 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 2013- 20132022 2035 $10 -$1 $24 $1 $5 $3 $25 $10 $25 $11 $24 $11 $22 $11 $23 $11 $36 $13 $29 $13 $28 $14 $27 $14 $29 $15 $26 $20 $29 $23 $42 $24 $38 $28 $47 $28 NA $35 $54 $37 $52 $38 NA $41 $70 $43 $72 $46 $90 $52 NA $57 $104 $62 $113 $77 $130 $83 $130 $97 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Residential Dishwasher Improvement Woody residues, Steam-electric - greenfield Commercial Wood-fueled Space Heat Replacing Oil/LPG Residential Solar Photovoltaic Residential Refrigerator Recycle Residential Laundry Appliance Improvement Solar, Utility-scale Photovoltaic arrays Residential Cooling Appliances Commercial Wood-fueled Space Heat Replacing Gas Home Energy Monitor Commercial Insulation Measures--Gas Residential Gas Water Heat Measures Residential Gas Furnace Upgrade Multifamily HVAC--Gas Heat Residential Gas Heat Windows Residential Gas Heat, Insulation/Ducts/Weatherization Residential Multi-Measure Gas Heat Residential Solar Hot Water--Gas Back-up Residential Heat/Energy Recovery Ventillation--Gas Residential Wood-fueled Heat Replacing Oil/LPG Commercial Cooking Equipment--Gas Commercial Hot Water Measures--Gas Commercial Wastewater Heat Exchanger--Gas Commercial Solar Hot Water--Gas Back-up Industrial Boiler Measures Industrial Hot Water Measures Industrial Space Heating Measures Industrial Weatherization Measures Industrial Electronics Industry Solvent Emissions Reduction Industrial Halon Consumption Reduction Option # RCI-14 PS-7 RCI-99 RCI-10 RCI-21 RCI-13 PS-13 RCI-1 RCI-98 RCI-20 RCI-93 RCI-23 RCI-24 RCI-25 RCI-26 RCI-27 RCI-28 RCI-29 RCI-30 RCI-33 RCI-87 RCI-88 RCI-92 RCI-95 RCI-126 RCI-127 RCI-128 RCI-129 RCI-134 RCI-135 52 2022 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.00 0.08 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2035 0.06 0.04 0.00 0.18 0.00 0.15 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.15 0.76 0.00 0.44 0.00 0.00 0.57 2.61 0.01 0.02 0.35 1.88 0.07 0.36 0.01 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 $24 $85 $0 $55 $0 $0 $111 $353 $1 $4 $94 $351 $17 $69 $7 $22 $0 -$4 $68 $229 $0 -$2 $0 -$20 -$3 -$12 $0 -$2 -$5 -$20 $21 $67 -$3 -$27 $4 $8 $3 $7 -$1 -$6 -$2 -$7 -$3 -$12 $0 $0 $0 $1 -$3 -$13 -$4 -$16 -$7 -$31 -$4 -$15 $75 $160 $0 -$1 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 2013- 20132022 2035 $162 $112 NA $124 $361 $125 $193 $136 $223 $156 $266 $187 $241 $190 $648 $455 $338 $931 $2,477 $1,802 $7,788 $7,220 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Hydropower, Conventional hydro upgrades in OR Geothermal, Enhanced Geothermal Wave, Various buoy & overtopping devices Solar (Nevada), Parabolic trough Wind (in OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Alberta to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Montana to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Wyoming to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Total - RCI options only Total - PS options only Total - All RCI and PS options Option # PS-2 PS-9 PS-11 PS-14 PS-15 PS-16 PS-17 PS-18 53 2022 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.12 0.91 7.03 2035 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.72 1.43 12.16 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 138.0 28.49 1 2.39 19.58 157.5 30.88 9 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $262 -$91 $89 $698 $351 $607 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 2013- 20132022 2035 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA $9 -$1 $37 $36 $11 $4 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo Annex 5a: Tabular cost curve results for the Integration Scenario: "Modest Effort, Continued State and Federal Policies, integrated with the Aggressive RPS", using point-of-combustion CO2e emission factors and ranked relative to cost-effectiveness over the 2013-2035 period GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Commercial Wood-fueled Space Heat Replacing Gas Commercial Insulation Measures--Gas Heat Commercial Clothes Washer Commercial Laundry Equipment--Gas Industrial Agriculture Irrigation Improvements Commercial Demand Control Ventilation Natural Replacement/Retro Commercial Windows New/Integrated Design Commercial Package Rooftop Measures New/Integrated Design Industrial Biomass-fired CHP Commercial Exit Signs Commercial Ice-Maker Improvements Industrial Lumber Conveyor Replacement Commercial Insulation Natural Replacement/Retrofit Commercial Heat Pump Water Heater Industrial Electonics Clean Room Measures Industrial Kraft Pulp Measures Industrial Metals Arc Furnace Industrial General: Lighting and Controls Commercial Demand Control Ventilation New/Integrated Design Landfill gas, Reciprocating engine Commercial Package Rooftop Measures Natural Replacement/Retro Commercial Variable Speed Chiller New/Integrated Design Commercial Hot Water Efficiency Measures Industrial Fruit Storage Measures Schools Building Envelope Measures Commercial Variable Speed Chiller Natural Replacement/Retro Option # RCI-98 RCI-89 RCI-73 RCI-86 RCI-123 RCI-53 RCI-38 RCI-45 RCI-131 RCI-66 RCI-71 RCI-120 RCI-52 RCI-76 RCI-110 RCI-118 RCI-116 RCI-102 RCI-42 PS-4 RCI-56 RCI-44 RCI-75 RCI-113 RCI-39 RCI-55 54 2022 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.00 -0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.02 2035 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.02 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.05 0.00 -0.06 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.03 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.16 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.12 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.04 0.10 0.57 0.01 0.04 0.01 0.07 0.03 0.13 0.07 0.36 0.05 0.26 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.57 0.01 0.04 -0.23 -0.87 0.04 0.16 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.03 0.16 0.00 0.00 0.11 0.51 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 $0 $1 -$1 -$6 -$11 -$40 $0 $0 -$5 -$18 $0 -$3 $0 -$1 -$1 -$3 -$8 -$45 -$1 -$3 -$1 -$5 -$3 -$10 -$5 -$24 -$4 -$16 $0 -$1 -$1 -$4 $0 $0 -$8 -$33 $0 -$2 $30 $49 -$2 -$9 $0 -$1 $0 -$1 -$2 -$8 $0 $0 -$6 -$25 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 201320132022 2035 -$3,833 -$2,518 -$500 -$468 -$350 -$256 -$252 -$200 -$149 -$153 -$124 -$120 -$105 -$90 -$101 -$87 -$82 -$78 -$89 -$75 -$89 -$73 -$87 -$72 -$70 -$67 -$73 -$61 -$72 -$60 -$71 -$60 -$70 -$59 -$69 -$58 -$44 -$57 -$128 -$56 -$58 -$56 -$61 -$53 -$61 -$52 -$60 -$52 -$8 -$50 -$56 -$49 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Industrial Digester Gas-fired CHP Industrial Wood Panels Hydraulic Press Industrial Food Storage Measures Industrial Mechanical Pulp Measures Commercial Contols Commissioning HVAC New/Integrated Design Residential Lighting Improvement Commercial LDP New/Integrated Design Commercial ECM on VAV Boxes Natural Replacement/Retro Industrial General: Motors Measures Industrial Cold Storage Measures Commercial Wastewater Heat Exchanger Industrial General: Transformers Commercial Solar Water Heat Commercial Cooking/Food Service Improvements Commercial Computer/Server Improvements Industrial Food Processing Measures Commercial LDP Natural Replacement/Retrofit Commercial Refrigeration Improvements Commercial ECM on VAV Boxes New/Integrated Design Manufactured Home Weatherization--Insulation Commercial Chiller Tower 6F Approach Commercial Economizer Measures Residential Heat Pump Water Heater Schools Lighting Measures Commercial Heat Reclamation Measures Commercial Lighting Controls Natural Replacement/Retrofit Commercial Lighting Controls New/Integrated Design Industrial General: Materials Movement Measures Industrial General: Air Compressor Measures Residential Electric Water Heat Efficiency Option # RCI-132 RCI-121 RCI-114 RCI-117 RCI-47 RCI-16 RCI-34 RCI-54 RCI-103 RCI-112 RCI-74 RCI-106 RCI-80 RCI-62 RCI-61 RCI-111 RCI-48 RCI-70 RCI-43 RCI-4 RCI-83 RCI-78 RCI-12 RCI-35 RCI-79 RCI-50 RCI-37 RCI-107 RCI-101 RCI-11 55 2022 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.22 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.17 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.15 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.04 2035 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.16 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.03 0.30 0.02 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.03 0.26 0.02 0.00 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.08 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.03 0.17 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.04 0.02 0.09 1.46 3.70 0.05 0.34 0.01 0.06 0.02 0.07 0.03 0.16 0.01 0.05 0.02 0.08 0.03 0.14 0.03 0.21 0.11 0.55 0.07 0.33 0.83 3.87 0.05 0.27 0.00 0.02 0.08 0.39 0.01 0.05 0.09 0.44 0.62 3.24 0.06 0.26 0.00 0.01 0.06 0.40 0.07 0.37 0.07 0.35 0.07 0.34 0.17 0.92 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 -$1 -$7 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 -$2 -$1 -$4 -$82 -$145 -$2 -$12 $0 -$2 -$1 -$3 -$1 -$5 $0 -$2 -$1 -$2 -$1 -$5 -$1 -$6 -$3 -$16 -$2 -$10 -$25 -$112 -$1 -$8 $0 $0 -$2 -$11 $0 -$1 -$2 -$11 -$14 -$78 -$1 -$6 $0 $0 -$1 -$9 -$1 -$8 -$1 -$7 -$1 -$7 -$2 -$17 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 201320132022 2035 -$42 -$45 -$47 -$42 -$47 -$42 -$46 -$41 -$37 -$41 -$56 -$39 -$41 -$36 -$38 -$35 -$37 -$35 -$35 -$34 -$34 -$32 -$33 -$32 -$33 -$32 -$33 -$31 -$32 -$30 -$30 -$30 -$30 -$29 -$30 -$29 -$31 -$29 -$29 -$28 -$26 -$26 -$23 -$25 -$23 -$24 -$23 -$23 -$20 -$23 -$24 -$22 -$19 -$22 -$19 -$21 -$18 -$21 -$15 -$19 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Industrial General: Fan Measures Industrial Agriculture Pump and Related Measures Industrial General: Energy Management Commercial Contols Commissioning HVAC Retrofit Commercial DVC Hood Industrial Gas-fired CHP Industrial Electonics Chip Fab Measures Industrial General: Pump Measures Commercial Daylighting New/Integrated Design Commercial Gas-fired CHP Commercial Wood-fueled Space Heat Replacing Electric Industrial Grocery Distribution Measures Commercial Rooftop Condensing Burner Commercial Low Press. Dist. Complex HVAC New/Integrated Design Residential Wood-fueled Heat Replacing Electric Resistance Industrial Paper Sector Measures Single Family Weatherization--Windows Schools HVAC Single Family Home HVAC Conversion/Upgrade Manufactured Home HVAC Conversion/Upgrade Resdential CHP Tidal current, Water current turbines Commercial Premium HVAC Natural Replacement/Retro Geothermal, Binary hydrothermal Commercial Parking Lighting Commercial Daylighting Natural Replacement/Retrofit Multifamily Weatherization--Windows Commercial Premium HVAC New/Integrated Design Hydropower, New projects Animal manure, Reciprocating engine Option # RCI-104 RCI-122 RCI-108 RCI-58 RCI-65 RCI-130 RCI-109 RCI-105 RCI-36 RCI-96 RCI-97 RCI-115 RCI-84 RCI-40 RCI-32 RCI-119 RCI-9 RCI-41 RCI-3 RCI-2 RCI-31 PS-10 RCI-57 PS-8 RCI-59 RCI-49 RCI-7 RCI-46 PS-1 PS-5 56 2022 0.03 0.02 0.10 0.05 0.00 0.21 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.14 0.10 0.03 0.19 0.00 0.47 0.02 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.22 0.08 2035 0.05 0.01 0.17 0.04 0.00 0.39 0.01 0.05 0.01 0.20 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.01 0.08 0.00 0.23 0.18 0.05 0.11 0.00 0.28 0.03 0.01 0.04 0.00 0.13 0.05 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.13 0.63 0.09 0.30 0.45 2.15 0.24 0.77 0.02 0.07 0.82 4.70 0.01 0.07 0.12 0.59 0.01 0.10 0.33 2.17 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.06 0.01 0.03 0.01 0.04 0.08 0.44 0.01 0.07 0.24 1.10 0.02 0.07 0.62 3.08 0.39 2.18 0.11 0.63 0.49 2.16 0.00 0.02 1.37 5.54 0.06 0.39 0.01 0.08 0.12 0.55 0.00 0.01 0.56 2.50 0.54 1.26 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 -$2 -$12 -$1 -$5 -$4 -$31 -$1 -$11 $0 -$1 -$13 -$58 $0 $0 $0 -$3 $0 $0 $1 $3 $0 $0 $0 $1 $0 $0 $0 $1 $2 $7 $1 $1 $9 $24 $1 $2 $26 $74 $17 $55 $4 $17 $17 $62 $0 $1 $56 $183 $3 $14 $1 $3 $8 $22 $0 $0 $29 $106 $35 $62 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 201320132022 2035 -$15 -$18 -$13 -$17 -$9 -$14 -$6 -$14 -$8 -$13 -$16 -$12 $1 -$7 $3 -$5 $8 $1 $3 $2 $20 $9 $25 $11 $27 $12 $27 $15 $30 $16 $37 $20 $40 $21 $55 $23 $42 $24 $43 $25 $36 $26 $36 $29 $51 $32 $41 $33 $57 $35 $57 $37 $64 $39 $63 $41 $51 $43 $64 $49 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Single Family Weatherization--Insulation Manufactured Home Weatherization--Windows Wastewater treatment gas, Reciprocating engines Offshore Wind, Floating WTG Wind (in OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Residential Gravity Film Heat Exchanger Woody residues, Steam-electric - brownfield Wind (from Alberta to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Multifamily Weatherization--Insulation Residential Solar Water Heat--Electric Back-up Wind (from Montana to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Commercial Signage Industrial Solar PV Commercial Ground-source Heat Pump Woody residues, Steam-electric - greenfield Commercial Solar PV Residential Solar Photovoltaic Residential Refrigerator Recycle Hydropower, Conventional hydro upgrades in OR Solar, Utility-scale Photovoltaic arrays Commercial Heating Measures--Gas Commercial Wood-fueled Space Heat Replacing Oil/LPG Residential Cooling Appliances Commercial Insulation Measures--Gas Residential Laundry Appliance Improvement Residential Dishwasher Improvement Residential Refrigerator/Freezer Improvement Residential Cooking Appliance Improvement Home Energy Monitor Residential Electronics Improvements Option # RCI-8 RCI-5 PS-3 PS-12 PS-15 RCI-17 PS-6 PS-16 RCI-6 RCI-19 PS-17 RCI-67 RCI-136 RCI-85 PS-7 RCI-100 RCI-10 RCI-21 PS-2 PS-13 RCI-91 RCI-99 RCI-1 RCI-93 RCI-13 RCI-14 RCI-15 RCI-18 RCI-20 RCI-22 57 2022 0.07 0.02 0.01 0.16 0.14 0.03 0.25 0.00 0.01 0.14 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.27 0.04 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2035 0.11 0.03 0.01 0.46 0.58 0.06 0.12 0.39 0.02 0.20 0.10 0.01 0.09 0.00 0.13 0.06 0.11 0.00 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.31 1.52 0.08 0.39 0.08 0.20 0.41 5.86 0.94 7.60 0.12 0.68 1.60 3.52 0.00 2.35 0.06 0.31 0.66 2.97 0.00 1.07 0.01 0.07 0.29 1.31 0.00 0.02 1.73 3.81 0.18 0.82 0.36 1.62 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.30 0.06 0.25 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 $21 $78 $6 $20 $7 $12 $29 $374 $85 $506 $13 $48 $146 $263 $0 $248 $10 $37 $114 $358 $0 $135 $2 $8 $61 $195 $1 $3 $309 $584 $41 $132 $83 $265 $1 $3 $0 $72 $18 $69 $4 $12 $0 $0 $6 $19 $0 -$1 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 201320132022 2035 $69 $51 $75 $51 $79 $62 $72 $64 $90 $67 $104 $70 $91 $75 NA $106 $159 $120 $172 $121 NA $126 $184 $128 $211 $149 $215 $151 $179 $153 $226 $160 $230 $163 $265 $189 NA $241 $305 $271 $1,011 $596 $865 $643 $7,148 $5,283 $7,904 $7,699 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Residential Gas Water Heat Measures Residential Gas Furnace Upgrade Multifamily HVAC--Gas Heat Residential Gas Heat Windows Residential Gas Heat, Insulation/Ducts/Weatherization Residential Multi-Measure Gas Heat Residential Solar Hot Water--Gas Back-up Residential Heat/Energy Recovery Ventillation--Gas Residential Wood-fueled Heat Replacing Oil/LPG Commercial Windows Natural Replacement/Retrofit Commercial Refrigeration Improvements Commercial Wastewater Treatment Improvements Commercial Water Supply Improvements Commercial Fume Hood Commercial Street Lighting Commercial Vending Machines Commercial Transformers Commercial Heating Duct Measures Commercial Energy Management Systems Commercial Cooking Equipment--Gas Commercial Hot Water Measures--Gas Commercial Heat Reclamation--Gas Commercial Wastewater Heat Exchanger--Gas Commercial Windows Measures--Gas Commercial Solar Hot Water--Gas Back-up Industrial Rural Area Lighting Industrial Traffic Signals Relamping Industrial Boiler Measures Industrial Hot Water Measures Industrial Space Heating Measures Option # RCI-23 RCI-24 RCI-25 RCI-26 RCI-27 RCI-28 RCI-29 RCI-30 RCI-33 RCI-51 RCI-60 RCI-63 RCI-64 RCI-68 RCI-69 RCI-72 RCI-77 RCI-81 RCI-82 RCI-87 RCI-88 RCI-90 RCI-92 RCI-94 RCI-95 RCI-124 RCI-125 RCI-126 RCI-127 RCI-128 58 2022 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2035 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 $4 $9 -$2 -$10 $0 $0 -$4 -$16 $19 $61 -$2 -$19 $6 $17 $2 $6 $0 -$1 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 -$1 -$6 -$1 -$4 $0 $0 $0 $0 $3 $8 $0 $1 $0 $0 $0 $0 -$2 -$10 -$3 -$13 -$6 -$24 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 201320132022 2035 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Industrial Weatherization Measures Industrial Cement Production Emissions Reduction Industrial Electronics Industry Solvent Emissions Reduction Industrial Halon Consumption Reduction Geothermal, Enhanced Geothermal Wave, Various buoy & overtopping devices Solar (Nevada), Parabolic trough Wind (from Wyoming to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Total - RCI options only Total - PS options only Total - All RCI and PS options Option # RCI-129 RCI-133 RCI-134 RCI-135 PS-9 PS-11 PS-14 PS-18 59 2022 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.34 1.80 4.13 2035 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.77 2.33 6.11 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.79 50.32 7.54 35.53 18.33 85.85 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 -$3 -$12 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $215 $512 $759 $2,725 $974 $3,237 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 201320132022 2035 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA $20 $10 $101 $77 $53 $38 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo Annex 5b: Tabular cost curve results for the Integration Scenario: " Modest Effort, Continued State and Federal Policies, integrated with the Aggressive RPS ", using full fuel cycle CO2e emission factors and ranked relative to costeffectiveness over the 2013-2035 period GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Commercial Wood-fueled Space Heat Replacing Gas Commercial Insulation Measures--Gas Heat Commercial Clothes Washer Commercial Laundry Equipment--Gas Industrial Agriculture Irrigation Improvements Landfill gas, Reciprocating engine Commercial Demand Control Ventilation Natural Replacement/Retro Commercial Windows New/Integrated Design Commercial Package Rooftop Measures New/Integrated Design Industrial Biomass-fired CHP Commercial Exit Signs Commercial Ice-Maker Improvements Industrial Lumber Conveyor Replacement Commercial Insulation Natural Replacement/Retrofit Commercial Heat Pump Water Heater Industrial Electonics Clean Room Measures Industrial Kraft Pulp Measures Industrial Metals Arc Furnace Industrial General: Lighting and Controls Commercial Demand Control Ventilation New/Integrated Design Commercial Package Rooftop Measures Natural Replacement/Retro Commercial Variable Speed Chiller New/Integrated Design Commercial Hot Water Efficiency Measures Industrial Fruit Storage Measures Schools Building Envelope Measures Commercial Variable Speed Chiller Natural Replacement/Retro Option # RCI-98 RCI-89 RCI-73 RCI-86 RCI-123 PS-4 RCI-53 RCI-38 RCI-45 RCI-131 RCI-66 RCI-71 RCI-120 RCI-52 RCI-76 RCI-110 RCI-118 RCI-116 RCI-102 RCI-42 RCI-56 RCI-44 RCI-75 RCI-113 RCI-39 RCI-55 60 2022 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.03 2035 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.01 -0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.04 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.04 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.19 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.14 -0.06 -0.43 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.04 0.12 0.69 0.01 0.05 0.02 0.09 0.04 0.16 0.08 0.43 0.06 0.31 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.09 0.00 0.00 0.14 0.68 0.01 0.05 0.04 0.19 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.19 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.62 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 $0 $1 -$1 -$6 -$11 -$40 $0 $0 -$5 -$18 $30 $49 $0 -$3 $0 -$1 -$1 -$3 -$8 -$45 -$1 -$3 -$1 -$5 -$3 -$10 -$5 -$24 -$4 -$16 $0 -$1 -$1 -$4 $0 $0 -$8 -$33 $0 -$2 -$2 -$9 $0 -$1 $0 -$1 -$2 -$8 $0 $0 -$6 -$25 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 201320132022 2035 -$3,232 -$2,084 -$421 -$388 -$294 -$212 -$212 -$166 -$125 -$127 -$492 -$114 -$104 -$99 -$88 -$74 -$85 -$72 -$69 -$65 -$75 -$62 -$75 -$60 -$73 -$60 -$59 -$56 -$62 -$51 -$60 -$50 -$60 -$50 -$59 -$49 -$58 -$48 -$37 -$47 -$49 -$46 -$52 -$44 -$51 -$43 -$51 -$43 -$7 -$41 -$47 -$41 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Industrial Digester Gas-fired CHP Industrial Wood Panels Hydraulic Press Industrial Food Storage Measures Industrial Mechanical Pulp Measures Commercial Contols Commissioning HVAC New/Integrated Design Residential Lighting Improvement Commercial LDP New/Integrated Design Commercial ECM on VAV Boxes Natural Replacement/Retro Industrial General: Motors Measures Industrial Cold Storage Measures Commercial Wastewater Heat Exchanger Industrial General: Transformers Commercial Solar Water Heat Commercial Cooking/Food Service Improvements Commercial Computer/Server Improvements Industrial Food Processing Measures Commercial LDP Natural Replacement/Retrofit Commercial Refrigeration Improvements Commercial ECM on VAV Boxes New/Integrated Design Manufactured Home Weatherization--Insulation Commercial Chiller Tower 6F Approach Commercial Economizer Measures Residential Heat Pump Water Heater Schools Lighting Measures Commercial Heat Reclamation Measures Commercial Lighting Controls Natural Replacement/Retrofit Commercial Lighting Controls New/Integrated Design Industrial General: Materials Movement Measures Industrial General: Air Compressor Measures Residential Electric Water Heat Efficiency Option # RCI-132 RCI-121 RCI-114 RCI-117 RCI-47 RCI-16 RCI-34 RCI-54 RCI-103 RCI-112 RCI-74 RCI-106 RCI-80 RCI-62 RCI-61 RCI-111 RCI-48 RCI-70 RCI-43 RCI-4 RCI-83 RCI-78 RCI-12 RCI-35 RCI-79 RCI-50 RCI-37 RCI-107 RCI-101 RCI-11 61 2022 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.25 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.02 0.20 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.17 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.05 2035 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.19 0.04 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.06 0.03 0.37 0.03 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.04 0.32 0.02 0.00 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.09 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.03 0.20 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.04 0.02 0.11 1.73 4.44 0.06 0.41 0.01 0.07 0.02 0.09 0.04 0.20 0.01 0.06 0.02 0.09 0.03 0.17 0.04 0.25 0.13 0.67 0.08 0.40 0.98 4.67 0.06 0.33 0.00 0.02 0.10 0.48 0.01 0.06 0.11 0.53 0.73 3.91 0.07 0.31 0.00 0.01 0.07 0.48 0.09 0.45 0.09 0.42 0.08 0.41 0.20 1.11 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 -$1 -$7 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 -$2 -$1 -$4 -$82 -$145 -$2 -$12 $0 -$2 -$1 -$3 -$1 -$5 $0 -$2 -$1 -$2 -$1 -$5 -$1 -$6 -$3 -$16 -$2 -$10 -$25 -$112 -$1 -$8 $0 $0 -$2 -$11 $0 -$1 -$2 -$11 -$14 -$78 -$1 -$6 $0 $0 -$1 -$9 -$1 -$8 -$1 -$7 -$1 -$7 -$2 -$17 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 201320132022 2035 -$35 -$37 -$39 -$35 -$39 -$35 -$39 -$34 -$31 -$34 -$47 -$33 -$35 -$30 -$32 -$29 -$31 -$29 -$30 -$28 -$28 -$27 -$28 -$27 -$28 -$26 -$27 -$26 -$27 -$25 -$25 -$24 -$25 -$24 -$25 -$24 -$26 -$24 -$24 -$23 -$22 -$22 -$20 -$21 -$19 -$20 -$19 -$19 -$17 -$19 -$20 -$19 -$16 -$18 -$16 -$18 -$15 -$17 -$12 -$15 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Industrial General: Fan Measures Industrial Agriculture Pump and Related Measures Industrial General: Energy Management Commercial Contols Commissioning HVAC Retrofit Commercial DVC Hood Industrial Gas-fired CHP Industrial Electonics Chip Fab Measures Industrial General: Pump Measures Commercial Daylighting New/Integrated Design Commercial Gas-fired CHP Commercial Wood-fueled Space Heat Replacing Electric Industrial Grocery Distribution Measures Commercial Rooftop Condensing Burner Commercial Low Press. Dist. Complex HVAC New/Integrated Design Residential Wood-fueled Heat Replacing Electric Resistance Industrial Paper Sector Measures Single Family Weatherization--Windows Schools HVAC Single Family Home HVAC Conversion/Upgrade Manufactured Home HVAC Conversion/Upgrade Resdential CHP Tidal current, Water current turbines Commercial Premium HVAC Natural Replacement/Retro Geothermal, Binary hydrothermal Commercial Parking Lighting Commercial Daylighting Natural Replacement/Retrofit Multifamily Weatherization--Windows Commercial Premium HVAC New/Integrated Design Hydropower, New projects Animal manure, Reciprocating engine Option # RCI-104 RCI-122 RCI-108 RCI-58 RCI-65 RCI-130 RCI-109 RCI-105 RCI-36 RCI-96 RCI-97 RCI-115 RCI-84 RCI-40 RCI-32 RCI-119 RCI-9 RCI-41 RCI-3 RCI-2 RCI-31 PS-10 RCI-57 PS-8 RCI-59 RCI-49 RCI-7 RCI-46 PS-1 PS-5 62 2022 0.03 0.02 0.11 0.06 0.00 0.24 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.16 0.11 0.03 0.22 0.00 0.55 0.02 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.25 0.09 2035 0.06 0.02 0.21 0.05 0.00 0.48 0.01 0.06 0.01 0.25 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.01 0.09 0.00 0.28 0.22 0.07 0.14 0.00 0.36 0.04 0.01 0.05 0.00 0.17 0.06 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.16 0.76 0.11 0.36 0.54 2.60 0.28 0.93 0.02 0.08 0.98 5.68 0.02 0.08 0.15 0.71 0.02 0.12 0.40 2.62 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.07 0.01 0.04 0.01 0.05 0.09 0.53 0.02 0.09 0.28 1.33 0.02 0.08 0.74 3.72 0.47 2.63 0.13 0.77 0.59 2.67 0.00 0.02 1.64 6.84 0.07 0.47 0.02 0.09 0.14 0.66 0.00 0.01 0.68 3.08 0.66 1.55 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 -$2 -$12 -$1 -$5 -$4 -$31 -$1 -$11 $0 -$1 -$13 -$58 $0 $0 $0 -$3 $0 $0 $1 $3 $0 $0 $0 $1 $0 $0 $0 $1 $2 $7 $1 $1 $9 $24 $1 $2 $26 $74 $17 $55 $4 $17 $17 $62 $0 $1 $56 $183 $3 $14 $1 $3 $8 $22 $0 $0 $29 $106 $35 $62 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 201320132022 2035 -$12 -$15 -$11 -$14 -$8 -$12 -$5 -$12 -$7 -$11 -$14 -$10 $1 -$6 $3 -$4 $7 $0 $2 $1 $17 $7 $21 $9 $23 $10 $23 $12 $26 $13 $31 $17 $34 $18 $47 $20 $35 $20 $37 $21 $31 $22 $30 $23 $43 $26 $34 $27 $48 $29 $48 $30 $54 $33 $53 $34 $42 $34 $53 $40 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Single Family Weatherization--Insulation Manufactured Home Weatherization--Windows Offshore Wind, Floating WTG Wastewater treatment gas, Reciprocating engines Wind (in OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Residential Gravity Film Heat Exchanger Wind (from Alberta to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Woody residues, Steam-electric - brownfield Wind (from Montana to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Multifamily Weatherization--Insulation Residential Solar Water Heat--Electric Back-up Commercial Signage Industrial Solar PV Commercial Ground-source Heat Pump Commercial Solar PV Residential Solar Photovoltaic Residential Refrigerator Recycle Woody residues, Steam-electric - greenfield Hydropower, Conventional hydro upgrades in OR Solar, Utility-scale Photovoltaic arrays Commercial Heating Measures--Gas Commercial Wood-fueled Space Heat Replacing Oil/LPG Residential Cooling Appliances Commercial Insulation Measures--Gas Residential Laundry Appliance Improvement Residential Dishwasher Improvement Residential Refrigerator/Freezer Improvement Residential Cooking Appliance Improvement Home Energy Monitor Residential Electronics Improvements Option # RCI-8 RCI-5 PS-12 PS-3 PS-15 RCI-17 PS-16 PS-6 PS-17 RCI-6 RCI-19 RCI-67 RCI-136 RCI-85 RCI-100 RCI-10 RCI-21 PS-7 PS-2 PS-13 RCI-91 RCI-99 RCI-1 RCI-93 RCI-13 RCI-14 RCI-15 RCI-18 RCI-20 RCI-22 63 2022 0.08 0.02 0.18 0.01 0.16 0.03 0.00 0.23 0.00 0.02 0.16 0.00 0.07 0.00 0.05 0.09 0.00 0.25 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2035 0.14 0.03 0.60 0.01 0.74 0.07 0.50 0.10 0.13 0.03 0.25 0.01 0.11 0.00 0.07 0.13 0.00 0.11 0.03 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.37 1.83 0.10 0.47 0.49 7.45 0.10 0.24 1.13 9.64 0.15 0.82 0.00 3.02 1.47 3.15 0.00 1.38 0.07 0.37 0.79 3.58 0.02 0.08 0.35 1.58 0.00 0.02 0.22 0.99 0.43 1.95 0.00 0.02 1.59 3.41 0.00 0.38 0.07 0.31 0.01 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 $21 $78 $6 $20 $29 $374 $7 $12 $85 $506 $13 $48 $0 $248 $146 $263 $0 $135 $10 $37 $114 $358 $2 $8 $61 $195 $1 $3 $41 $132 $83 $265 $1 $3 $309 $584 $0 $72 $18 $69 $4 $12 $0 $0 $6 $19 $0 -$1 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 201320132022 2035 $58 $42 $63 $43 $60 $50 $65 $51 $75 $52 $88 $58 NA $82 $99 $83 NA $98 $134 $99 $145 $100 $155 $106 $178 $124 $181 $125 $190 $133 $193 $136 $223 $156 $195 $171 NA $188 $255 $220 $851 $494 $729 $532 $6,015 $4,379 $6,651 $6,381 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Residential Gas Water Heat Measures Residential Gas Furnace Upgrade Multifamily HVAC--Gas Heat Residential Gas Heat Windows Residential Gas Heat, Insulation/Ducts/Weatherization Residential Multi-Measure Gas Heat Residential Solar Hot Water--Gas Back-up Residential Heat/Energy Recovery Ventillation--Gas Residential Wood-fueled Heat Replacing Oil/LPG Commercial Windows Natural Replacement/Retrofit Commercial Refrigeration Improvements Commercial Wastewater Treatment Improvements Commercial Water Supply Improvements Commercial Fume Hood Commercial Street Lighting Commercial Vending Machines Commercial Transformers Commercial Heating Duct Measures Commercial Energy Management Systems Commercial Cooking Equipment--Gas Commercial Hot Water Measures--Gas Commercial Heat Reclamation--Gas Commercial Wastewater Heat Exchanger--Gas Commercial Windows Measures--Gas Commercial Solar Hot Water--Gas Back-up Industrial Rural Area Lighting Industrial Traffic Signals Relamping Industrial Boiler Measures Industrial Hot Water Measures Industrial Space Heating Measures Option # RCI-23 RCI-24 RCI-25 RCI-26 RCI-27 RCI-28 RCI-29 RCI-30 RCI-33 RCI-51 RCI-60 RCI-63 RCI-64 RCI-68 RCI-69 RCI-72 RCI-77 RCI-81 RCI-82 RCI-87 RCI-88 RCI-90 RCI-92 RCI-94 RCI-95 RCI-124 RCI-125 RCI-126 RCI-127 RCI-128 64 2022 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2035 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 $4 $9 -$2 -$10 $0 $0 -$4 -$16 $19 $61 -$2 -$19 $6 $17 $2 $6 $0 -$1 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 -$1 -$6 -$1 -$4 $0 $0 $0 $0 $3 $8 $0 $1 $0 $0 $0 $0 -$2 -$10 -$3 -$13 -$6 -$24 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 201320132022 2035 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Industrial Weatherization Measures Industrial Cement Production Emissions Reduction Industrial Electronics Industry Solvent Emissions Reduction Industrial Halon Consumption Reduction Geothermal, Enhanced Geothermal Wave, Various buoy & overtopping devices Solar (Nevada), Parabolic trough Wind (from Wyoming to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Total - RCI options only Total - PS options only Total - All RCI and PS options Option # RCI-129 RCI-133 RCI-134 RCI-135 PS-9 PS-11 PS-14 PS-18 65 2022 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.71 2.00 4.72 2035 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.63 2.93 7.56 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 12.82 60.70 8.34 42.69 103.3 21.16 9 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 -$3 -$12 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $215 $512 $759 $2,725 $974 $3,237 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 201320132022 2035 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA $17 $8 $91 $64 $46 $31 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo Annex 6a: Tabular cost curve results for the Integration Scenario: "Moderate Increase in Federal Action, integrated with the Aggressive RPS", using point-of-combustion CO2e emission factors and ranked relative to cost-effectiveness over the 2013-2035 period GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Commercial Wood-fueled Space Heat Replacing Gas Commercial Insulation Measures--Gas Heat Commercial Clothes Washer Commercial Laundry Equipment--Gas Industrial Agriculture Irrigation Improvements Schools Building Envelope Measures Commercial Demand Control Ventilation Natural Replacement/Retro Commercial Windows New/Integrated Design Commercial Package Rooftop Measures New/Integrated Design Commercial Insulation Natural Replacement/Retrofit Industrial Biomass-fired CHP Commercial Ice-Maker Improvements Industrial Lumber Conveyor Replacement Landfill gas, Reciprocating engine Commercial Heat Pump Water Heater Industrial Electonics Clean Room Measures Industrial General: Lighting and Controls Industrial Kraft Pulp Measures Industrial Metals Arc Furnace Commercial Package Rooftop Measures Natural Replacement/Retro Commercial Demand Control Ventilation New/Integrated Design Commercial Variable Speed Chiller New/Integrated Design Commercial Hot Water Efficiency Measures Industrial Fruit Storage Measures Commercial Variable Speed Chiller Natural Replacement/Retro Industrial Digester Gas-fired CHP Option # RCI-98 RCI-89 RCI-73 RCI-86 RCI-123 RCI-39 RCI-53 RCI-38 RCI-45 RCI-52 RCI-131 RCI-71 RCI-120 PS-4 RCI-76 RCI-110 RCI-102 RCI-118 RCI-116 RCI-56 RCI-42 RCI-44 RCI-75 RCI-113 RCI-55 RCI-132 66 2022 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.00 0.01 -0.01 0.01 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.02 2035 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.07 0.01 0.01 -0.06 0.02 0.00 0.05 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.04 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.16 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.12 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.05 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.04 0.08 0.41 0.15 0.86 0.01 0.07 0.03 0.13 -0.22 -0.83 0.05 0.26 0.00 0.01 0.14 0.66 0.01 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.19 0.01 0.04 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.03 0.16 0.13 0.60 0.09 0.50 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 $0 $1 -$2 -$8 -$11 -$40 $0 $0 -$5 -$18 $0 $0 -$1 -$5 $0 -$1 -$1 -$3 -$7 -$34 -$12 -$67 -$1 -$5 -$3 -$10 $32 $52 -$4 -$16 $0 -$1 -$10 -$40 -$1 -$4 $0 $0 -$3 -$11 $0 -$2 $0 -$1 $0 -$1 -$2 -$8 -$8 -$30 -$4 -$22 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 201320132022 2035 -$3,833 -$2,518 -$551 -$505 -$350 -$256 -$252 -$200 -$149 -$153 -$87 -$110 -$86 -$98 -$105 -$90 -$101 -$87 -$91 -$83 -$82 -$78 -$89 -$73 -$87 -$72 -$147 -$62 -$73 -$61 -$72 -$60 -$71 -$60 -$71 -$60 -$70 -$59 -$61 -$58 -$44 -$57 -$61 -$53 -$61 -$52 -$60 -$52 -$58 -$50 -$42 -$45 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Residential Lighting Improvement Residential Refrigerator/Freezer Improvement Industrial Wood Panels Hydraulic Press Industrial Food Storage Measures Industrial Mechanical Pulp Measures Commercial Contols Commissioning HVAC New/Integrated Design Commercial ECM on VAV Boxes Natural Replacement/Retro Commercial LDP New/Integrated Design Industrial General: Motors Measures Industrial Cold Storage Measures Commercial LDP Natural Replacement/Retrofit Commercial Wastewater Heat Exchanger Industrial General: Transformers Commercial Solar Water Heat Commercial Cooking/Food Service Improvements Manufactured Home Weatherization--Insulation Commercial Computer/Server Improvements Industrial Food Processing Measures Residential Heat Pump Water Heater Commercial Refrigeration Improvements Commercial ECM on VAV Boxes New/Integrated Design Commercial Lighting Controls Natural Replacement/Retrofit Commercial Chiller Tower 6F Approach Schools Lighting Measures Commercial Economizer Measures Residential Electric Water Heat Efficiency Commercial Heat Reclamation Measures Commercial Lighting Controls New/Integrated Design Industrial General: Materials Movement Measures Industrial General: Air Compressor Measures Option # RCI-16 RCI-15 RCI-121 RCI-114 RCI-117 RCI-47 RCI-54 RCI-34 RCI-103 RCI-112 RCI-48 RCI-74 RCI-106 RCI-80 RCI-62 RCI-4 RCI-61 RCI-111 RCI-12 RCI-70 RCI-43 RCI-50 RCI-83 RCI-35 RCI-78 RCI-11 RCI-79 RCI-37 RCI-107 RCI-101 67 2022 0.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.20 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.17 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.02 2035 0.18 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.35 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.05 0.03 0.31 0.02 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.02 0.03 0.09 0.00 0.03 0.03 0.03 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 1.70 4.31 0.01 0.07 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.04 0.02 0.09 0.01 0.07 0.05 0.34 0.02 0.07 0.03 0.16 0.96 4.51 0.01 0.05 0.02 0.08 0.03 0.14 0.03 0.21 0.09 0.43 0.11 0.55 0.07 0.33 0.72 3.78 0.05 0.27 0.00 0.02 0.07 0.46 0.01 0.05 0.06 0.28 0.09 0.44 0.20 1.07 0.00 0.01 0.07 0.37 0.07 0.35 0.07 0.34 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 -$103 -$189 -$1 -$3 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 -$2 -$1 -$4 -$1 -$2 -$2 -$12 -$1 -$3 -$1 -$5 -$35 -$151 $0 -$2 -$1 -$2 -$1 -$5 -$1 -$6 -$3 -$13 -$3 -$16 -$2 -$10 -$21 -$110 -$1 -$8 $0 $0 -$2 -$13 $0 -$1 -$2 -$7 -$2 -$11 -$4 -$26 $0 $0 -$1 -$8 -$1 -$7 -$1 -$7 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 201320132022 2035 -$61 -$44 -$48 -$43 -$47 -$42 -$47 -$42 -$46 -$41 -$37 -$41 -$40 -$37 -$41 -$36 -$37 -$35 -$35 -$34 -$36 -$33 -$34 -$32 -$33 -$32 -$33 -$32 -$33 -$31 -$33 -$31 -$32 -$30 -$30 -$30 -$30 -$29 -$30 -$29 -$31 -$29 -$31 -$28 -$26 -$26 -$27 -$26 -$23 -$25 -$22 -$24 -$20 -$23 -$19 -$22 -$19 -$21 -$18 -$21 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Residential Electronics Improvements Industrial General: Fan Measures Commercial Contols Commissioning HVAC Retrofit Industrial Agriculture Pump and Related Measures Industrial General: Energy Management Commercial DVC Hood Industrial Gas-fired CHP Industrial Electonics Chip Fab Measures Industrial General: Pump Measures Commercial Daylighting New/Integrated Design Commercial Gas-fired CHP Commercial Wood-fueled Space Heat Replacing Electric Industrial Grocery Distribution Measures Commercial Rooftop Condensing Burner Single Family Weatherization--Windows Commercial Low Press. Dist. Complex HVAC New/Integrated Design Single Family Home HVAC Conversion/Upgrade Residential Wood-fueled Heat Replacing Electric Resistance Manufactured Home HVAC Conversion/Upgrade Schools HVAC Industrial Paper Sector Measures Resdential CHP Commercial Daylighting Natural Replacement/Retrofit Commercial Premium HVAC Natural Replacement/Retro Tidal current, Water current turbines Multifamily Weatherization--Windows Geothermal, Binary hydrothermal Commercial Parking Lighting Commercial Exit Signs Commercial Premium HVAC New/Integrated Design Option # RCI-22 RCI-104 RCI-58 RCI-122 RCI-108 RCI-65 RCI-130 RCI-109 RCI-105 RCI-36 RCI-96 RCI-97 RCI-115 RCI-84 RCI-9 RCI-40 RCI-3 RCI-32 RCI-2 RCI-41 RCI-119 RCI-31 RCI-49 RCI-57 PS-10 RCI-7 PS-8 RCI-59 RCI-66 RCI-46 68 2022 0.06 0.03 0.06 0.02 0.10 0.00 0.31 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.33 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.16 0.02 0.11 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.19 0.03 0.48 0.02 0.00 0.00 2035 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.01 0.17 0.00 0.59 0.01 0.05 0.01 0.76 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.09 0.00 0.26 0.04 0.20 0.00 0.01 0.11 0.01 0.00 0.11 0.04 0.28 0.03 0.00 0.00 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.33 1.05 0.13 0.63 0.28 0.90 0.09 0.30 0.45 2.15 0.02 0.07 1.23 7.06 0.01 0.07 0.12 0.59 0.01 0.10 1.25 8.13 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.06 0.01 0.03 0.27 1.25 0.01 0.04 0.71 3.52 0.08 0.44 0.44 2.46 0.02 0.08 0.01 0.07 0.22 1.27 0.02 0.09 0.00 0.02 0.50 2.20 0.14 0.63 1.24 5.50 0.06 0.39 0.01 0.04 0.00 0.01 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 -$1 -$21 -$2 -$12 -$3 -$15 -$1 -$5 -$4 -$31 $0 -$1 -$20 -$87 $0 $0 $0 -$3 $0 $0 $3 $12 $0 $0 $0 $1 $0 $0 $8 $17 $0 $1 $22 $56 $2 $7 $14 $42 $1 $1 $1 $1 $6 $26 $1 $2 $0 $1 $18 $64 $7 $19 $51 $180 $3 $14 $1 $1 $0 $0 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 201320132022 2035 -$3 -$20 -$15 -$18 -$10 -$17 -$13 -$17 -$9 -$14 -$8 -$13 -$16 -$12 $1 -$7 $3 -$5 $8 $1 $3 $2 $20 $9 $25 $11 $27 $12 $29 $13 $27 $15 $31 $16 $30 $16 $32 $17 $49 $19 $37 $20 $29 $20 $39 $23 $46 $27 $37 $29 $51 $30 $41 $33 $57 $35 $58 $39 $63 $41 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Manufactured Home Weatherization--Windows Single Family Weatherization--Insulation Hydropower, New projects Animal manure, Reciprocating engine Residential Cooking Appliance Improvement Residential Gravity Film Heat Exchanger Industrial Cement Production Emissions Reduction Wastewater treatment gas, Reciprocating engines Offshore Wind, Floating WTG Wind (in OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Woody residues, Steam-electric - brownfield Residential Solar Water Heat--Electric Back-up Wind (from Alberta to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Multifamily Weatherization--Insulation Commercial Signage Residential Dishwasher Improvement Industrial Solar PV Woody residues, Steam-electric - greenfield Commercial Ground-source Heat Pump Commercial Solar PV Residential Solar Photovoltaic Residential Refrigerator Recycle Residential Laundry Appliance Improvement Solar, Utility-scale Photovoltaic arrays Commercial Heating Measures--Gas Commercial Wood-fueled Space Heat Replacing Oil/LPG Home Energy Monitor Residential Cooling Appliances Commercial Insulation Measures--Gas Residential Gas Water Heat Measures Option # RCI-5 RCI-8 PS-1 PS-5 RCI-18 RCI-17 RCI-133 PS-3 PS-12 PS-15 PS-6 RCI-19 PS-16 RCI-6 RCI-67 RCI-14 RCI-136 PS-7 RCI-85 RCI-100 RCI-10 RCI-21 RCI-13 PS-13 RCI-91 RCI-99 RCI-20 RCI-1 RCI-93 RCI-23 69 2022 0.02 0.08 0.13 0.08 0.01 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.16 0.14 0.26 0.16 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.28 0.00 0.12 0.08 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2035 0.03 0.12 0.13 0.05 0.01 0.07 0.00 0.01 0.47 0.58 0.12 0.23 0.20 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.14 0.13 0.00 0.17 0.11 0.00 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.09 0.44 0.34 1.66 0.34 2.10 0.55 1.28 0.02 0.12 0.14 0.80 -0.01 -0.02 0.09 0.20 0.41 5.97 0.96 7.73 1.64 3.62 0.77 3.47 0.00 1.39 0.06 0.33 0.01 0.07 0.02 0.08 0.47 2.09 1.77 3.92 0.00 0.02 0.55 2.47 0.36 1.62 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.19 0.06 0.26 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 $6 $18 $19 $70 $18 $90 $36 $63 $2 $6 $12 $45 -$1 -$1 $7 $13 $30 $375 $87 $508 $151 $269 $104 $321 $0 $148 $9 $36 $2 $8 $3 $11 $98 $312 $314 $591 $1 $3 $124 $395 $83 $265 $1 $3 $12 $44 $18 $69 $4 $12 $0 $0 $8 $28 $6 $21 $0 -$2 $3 $4 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 201320132022 2035 $62 $42 $56 $42 $52 $43 $65 $49 $84 $52 $85 $56 $87 $61 $80 $62 $72 $63 $90 $66 $92 $74 $135 $93 NA $106 $145 $110 $184 $128 $192 $135 $211 $149 $177 $151 $215 $151 $226 $160 $230 $163 $265 $189 $315 $225 $302 $267 $876 $510 $865 $643 $3,308 $2,444 $6,525 $4,821 $9,105 $8,587 NA NA CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Residential Gas Furnace Upgrade Multifamily HVAC--Gas Heat Residential Gas Heat Windows Residential Gas Heat, Insulation/Ducts/Weatherization Residential Multi-Measure Gas Heat Residential Solar Hot Water--Gas Back-up Residential Heat/Energy Recovery Ventillation--Gas Residential Wood-fueled Heat Replacing Oil/LPG Commercial Windows Natural Replacement/Retrofit Commercial Refrigeration Improvements Commercial Wastewater Treatment Improvements Commercial Water Supply Improvements Commercial Fume Hood Commercial Street Lighting Commercial Vending Machines Commercial Transformers Commercial Heating Duct Measures Commercial Energy Management Systems Commercial Cooking Equipment--Gas Commercial Hot Water Measures--Gas Commercial Heat Reclamation--Gas Commercial Wastewater Heat Exchanger--Gas Commercial Windows Measures--Gas Commercial Solar Hot Water--Gas Back-up Industrial Rural Area Lighting Industrial Traffic Signals Relamping Industrial Boiler Measures Industrial Hot Water Measures Industrial Space Heating Measures Industrial Weatherization Measures Option # RCI-24 RCI-25 RCI-26 RCI-27 RCI-28 RCI-29 RCI-30 RCI-33 RCI-51 RCI-60 RCI-63 RCI-64 RCI-68 RCI-69 RCI-72 RCI-77 RCI-81 RCI-82 RCI-87 RCI-88 RCI-90 RCI-92 RCI-94 RCI-95 RCI-124 RCI-125 RCI-126 RCI-127 RCI-128 RCI-129 70 2022 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2035 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 -$3 -$12 $0 $0 -$4 -$19 $19 $62 -$3 -$25 $4 $7 $2 $6 $0 -$1 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 -$1 -$6 -$1 -$4 $0 $0 $0 $0 $3 $8 $0 $1 $0 $0 $0 $0 -$2 -$10 -$3 -$13 -$7 -$28 -$3 -$14 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 201320132022 2035 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Industrial Electronics Industry Solvent Emissions Reduction Industrial Halon Consumption Reduction Hydropower, Conventional hydro upgrades in OR Geothermal, Enhanced Geothermal Wave, Various buoy & overtopping devices Solar (Nevada), Parabolic trough Wind (from Montana to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Wyoming to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Total - RCI options only Total - PS options only Total - All RCI and PS options Option # RCI-134 RCI-135 PS-2 PS-9 PS-11 PS-14 PS-17 PS-18 71 2022 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.14 1.76 4.90 2035 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.20 2.02 7.22 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 14.31 68.12 7.35 33.36 101.4 21.66 8 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 $58 $143 $0 -$1 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $327 $769 $761 $2,422 $1,088 $3,191 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 201320132022 2035 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA $23 $11 $104 $73 $50 $31 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo Annex 6b: Tabular cost curve results for the Integration Scenario: " Moderate Increase in Federal Action, integrated with the Aggressive RPS ", using full fuel cycle CO2e emission factors and ranked relative to cost-effectiveness over the 2013-2035 period GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Commercial Wood-fueled Space Heat Replacing Gas Commercial Insulation Measures--Gas Heat Commercial Clothes Washer Commercial Laundry Equipment--Gas Landfill gas, Reciprocating engine Industrial Agriculture Irrigation Improvements Schools Building Envelope Measures Commercial Demand Control Ventilation Natural Replacement/Retro Commercial Windows New/Integrated Design Commercial Package Rooftop Measures New/Integrated Design Commercial Insulation Natural Replacement/Retrofit Industrial Biomass-fired CHP Commercial Ice-Maker Improvements Industrial Lumber Conveyor Replacement Commercial Heat Pump Water Heater Industrial Electonics Clean Room Measures Industrial General: Lighting and Controls Industrial Kraft Pulp Measures Industrial Metals Arc Furnace Commercial Package Rooftop Measures Natural Replacement/Retro Commercial Demand Control Ventilation New/Integrated Design Commercial Variable Speed Chiller New/Integrated Design Commercial Hot Water Efficiency Measures Industrial Fruit Storage Measures Commercial Variable Speed Chiller Natural Replacement/Retro Industrial Digester Gas-fired CHP Option # RCI-98 RCI-89 RCI-73 RCI-86 PS-4 RCI-123 RCI-39 RCI-53 RCI-38 RCI-45 RCI-52 RCI-131 RCI-71 RCI-120 RCI-76 RCI-110 RCI-102 RCI-118 RCI-116 RCI-56 RCI-42 RCI-44 RCI-75 RCI-113 RCI-55 RCI-132 72 2022 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.03 2035 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 -0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.09 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.00 0.06 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.05 0.05 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.19 0.00 0.00 -0.04 -0.38 0.04 0.14 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.06 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.04 0.09 0.49 0.18 1.04 0.02 0.09 0.04 0.16 0.06 0.31 0.00 0.01 0.17 0.80 0.02 0.09 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.23 0.01 0.05 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.19 0.16 0.72 0.10 0.60 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 $0 $1 -$2 -$8 -$11 -$40 $0 $0 $32 $52 -$5 -$18 $0 $0 -$1 -$5 $0 -$1 -$1 -$3 -$7 -$34 -$12 -$67 -$1 -$5 -$3 -$10 -$4 -$16 $0 -$1 -$10 -$40 -$1 -$4 $0 $0 -$3 -$11 $0 -$2 $0 -$1 $0 -$1 -$2 -$8 -$8 -$30 -$4 -$22 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 201320132022 2035 -$3,232 -$2,084 -$464 -$419 -$294 -$212 -$212 -$166 -$775 -$135 -$125 -$127 -$74 -$91 -$73 -$81 -$88 -$74 -$85 -$72 -$77 -$69 -$69 -$65 -$75 -$60 -$73 -$60 -$62 -$51 -$60 -$50 -$60 -$50 -$60 -$50 -$59 -$49 -$51 -$48 -$37 -$47 -$52 -$44 -$51 -$43 -$51 -$43 -$49 -$42 -$35 -$37 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Residential Lighting Improvement Residential Refrigerator/Freezer Improvement Industrial Wood Panels Hydraulic Press Industrial Food Storage Measures Industrial Mechanical Pulp Measures Commercial Contols Commissioning HVAC New/Integrated Design Commercial ECM on VAV Boxes Natural Replacement/Retro Commercial LDP New/Integrated Design Industrial General: Motors Measures Industrial Cold Storage Measures Commercial LDP Natural Replacement/Retrofit Commercial Wastewater Heat Exchanger Industrial General: Transformers Commercial Solar Water Heat Commercial Cooking/Food Service Improvements Manufactured Home Weatherization--Insulation Commercial Computer/Server Improvements Industrial Food Processing Measures Residential Heat Pump Water Heater Commercial Refrigeration Improvements Commercial ECM on VAV Boxes New/Integrated Design Commercial Lighting Controls Natural Replacement/Retrofit Commercial Chiller Tower 6F Approach Schools Lighting Measures Commercial Economizer Measures Residential Electric Water Heat Efficiency Commercial Heat Reclamation Measures Commercial Lighting Controls New/Integrated Design Industrial General: Materials Movement Measures Industrial General: Air Compressor Measures Option # RCI-16 RCI-15 RCI-121 RCI-114 RCI-117 RCI-47 RCI-54 RCI-34 RCI-103 RCI-112 RCI-48 RCI-74 RCI-106 RCI-80 RCI-62 RCI-4 RCI-61 RCI-111 RCI-12 RCI-70 RCI-43 RCI-50 RCI-83 RCI-35 RCI-78 RCI-11 RCI-79 RCI-37 RCI-107 RCI-101 73 2022 0.29 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.01 0.24 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.02 0.20 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.06 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.02 2035 0.23 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.04 0.01 0.02 0.43 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.03 0.38 0.03 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.03 0.04 0.11 0.00 0.04 0.03 0.03 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 2.02 5.18 0.01 0.08 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.04 0.02 0.11 0.02 0.08 0.06 0.41 0.02 0.09 0.04 0.20 1.15 5.45 0.01 0.06 0.02 0.09 0.03 0.17 0.04 0.25 0.11 0.52 0.13 0.67 0.08 0.40 0.86 4.57 0.06 0.33 0.00 0.02 0.08 0.56 0.01 0.06 0.07 0.34 0.11 0.53 0.24 1.30 0.00 0.01 0.09 0.45 0.09 0.42 0.08 0.41 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 -$103 -$189 -$1 -$3 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 -$2 -$1 -$4 -$1 -$2 -$2 -$12 -$1 -$3 -$1 -$5 -$35 -$151 $0 -$2 -$1 -$2 -$1 -$5 -$1 -$6 -$3 -$13 -$3 -$16 -$2 -$10 -$21 -$110 -$1 -$8 $0 $0 -$2 -$13 $0 -$1 -$2 -$7 -$2 -$11 -$4 -$26 $0 $0 -$1 -$8 -$1 -$7 -$1 -$7 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 201320132022 2035 -$51 -$37 -$41 -$35 -$39 -$35 -$39 -$35 -$39 -$34 -$31 -$34 -$34 -$30 -$35 -$30 -$31 -$29 -$30 -$28 -$31 -$28 -$28 -$27 -$28 -$27 -$28 -$26 -$27 -$26 -$28 -$26 -$27 -$25 -$25 -$24 -$25 -$24 -$25 -$24 -$26 -$24 -$26 -$23 -$22 -$22 -$23 -$21 -$20 -$21 -$19 -$20 -$17 -$19 -$16 -$18 -$16 -$18 -$15 -$17 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Residential Electronics Improvements Industrial General: Fan Measures Commercial Contols Commissioning HVAC Retrofit Industrial Agriculture Pump and Related Measures Industrial General: Energy Management Commercial DVC Hood Industrial Gas-fired CHP Industrial Electonics Chip Fab Measures Industrial General: Pump Measures Commercial Daylighting New/Integrated Design Commercial Gas-fired CHP Commercial Wood-fueled Space Heat Replacing Electric Industrial Grocery Distribution Measures Commercial Rooftop Condensing Burner Single Family Weatherization--Windows Commercial Low Press. Dist. Complex HVAC New/Integrated Design Single Family Home HVAC Conversion/Upgrade Residential Wood-fueled Heat Replacing Electric Resistance Manufactured Home HVAC Conversion/Upgrade Schools HVAC Industrial Paper Sector Measures Resdential CHP Commercial Daylighting Natural Replacement/Retrofit Commercial Premium HVAC Natural Replacement/Retro Tidal current, Water current turbines Multifamily Weatherization--Windows Geothermal, Binary hydrothermal Commercial Parking Lighting Commercial Exit Signs Commercial Premium HVAC New/Integrated Design Option # RCI-22 RCI-104 RCI-58 RCI-122 RCI-108 RCI-65 RCI-130 RCI-109 RCI-105 RCI-36 RCI-96 RCI-97 RCI-115 RCI-84 RCI-9 RCI-40 RCI-3 RCI-32 RCI-2 RCI-41 RCI-119 RCI-31 RCI-49 RCI-57 PS-10 RCI-7 PS-8 RCI-59 RCI-66 RCI-46 74 2022 0.06 0.03 0.07 0.02 0.11 0.00 0.36 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.39 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.00 0.19 0.02 0.13 0.01 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.23 0.03 0.56 0.02 0.00 0.00 2035 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.02 0.21 0.00 0.72 0.01 0.06 0.01 0.93 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.11 0.00 0.32 0.04 0.25 0.01 0.01 0.13 0.01 0.00 0.14 0.05 0.36 0.04 0.00 0.00 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.39 1.26 0.16 0.76 0.33 1.08 0.11 0.36 0.54 2.60 0.02 0.08 1.46 8.52 0.02 0.08 0.15 0.71 0.02 0.12 1.48 9.83 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.07 0.01 0.04 0.32 1.51 0.01 0.05 0.84 4.25 0.09 0.53 0.53 2.97 0.02 0.09 0.02 0.09 0.27 1.53 0.02 0.11 0.00 0.02 0.60 2.72 0.16 0.76 1.49 6.79 0.07 0.47 0.01 0.05 0.00 0.01 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 -$1 -$21 -$2 -$12 -$3 -$15 -$1 -$5 -$4 -$31 $0 -$1 -$20 -$87 $0 $0 $0 -$3 $0 $0 $3 $12 $0 $0 $0 $1 $0 $0 $8 $17 $0 $1 $22 $56 $2 $7 $14 $42 $1 $1 $1 $1 $6 $26 $1 $2 $0 $1 $18 $64 $7 $19 $51 $180 $3 $14 $1 $1 $0 $0 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 201320132022 2035 -$3 -$16 -$12 -$15 -$8 -$14 -$11 -$14 -$8 -$12 -$7 -$11 -$14 -$10 $1 -$6 $3 -$4 $7 $0 $2 $1 $17 $7 $21 $9 $23 $10 $24 $11 $23 $12 $26 $13 $26 $13 $27 $14 $41 $16 $31 $17 $24 $17 $33 $19 $38 $23 $31 $24 $43 $25 $34 $27 $48 $29 $49 $32 $53 $34 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Manufactured Home Weatherization--Windows Hydropower, New projects Single Family Weatherization--Insulation Animal manure, Reciprocating engine Residential Cooking Appliance Improvement Residential Gravity Film Heat Exchanger Offshore Wind, Floating WTG Wastewater treatment gas, Reciprocating engines Industrial Cement Production Emissions Reduction Wind (in OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Residential Solar Water Heat--Electric Back-up Woody residues, Steam-electric - brownfield Wind (from Alberta to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Multifamily Weatherization--Insulation Commercial Signage Residential Dishwasher Improvement Industrial Solar PV Commercial Ground-source Heat Pump Commercial Solar PV Residential Solar Photovoltaic Residential Refrigerator Recycle Woody residues, Steam-electric - greenfield Residential Laundry Appliance Improvement Solar, Utility-scale Photovoltaic arrays Commercial Heating Measures--Gas Commercial Wood-fueled Space Heat Replacing Oil/LPG Home Energy Monitor Residential Cooling Appliances Commercial Insulation Measures--Gas Residential Gas Water Heat Measures Option # RCI-5 PS-1 RCI-8 PS-5 RCI-18 RCI-17 PS-12 PS-3 RCI-133 PS-15 RCI-19 PS-6 PS-16 RCI-6 RCI-67 RCI-14 RCI-136 RCI-85 RCI-100 RCI-10 RCI-21 PS-7 RCI-13 PS-13 RCI-91 RCI-99 RCI-20 RCI-1 RCI-93 RCI-23 75 2022 0.02 0.16 0.09 0.10 0.01 0.04 0.19 0.02 0.00 0.17 0.19 0.24 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.11 0.00 0.14 0.09 0.00 0.26 0.01 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2035 0.04 0.17 0.15 0.06 0.01 0.08 0.60 0.01 0.00 0.74 0.29 0.10 0.25 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.17 0.00 0.20 0.13 0.00 0.11 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.11 0.53 0.41 2.62 0.40 2.00 0.67 1.58 0.03 0.15 0.17 0.96 0.50 7.56 0.10 0.25 -0.01 -0.02 1.16 9.79 0.92 4.18 1.52 3.27 0.00 1.78 0.08 0.39 0.02 0.08 0.02 0.09 0.55 2.52 0.00 0.02 0.65 2.97 0.43 1.95 0.00 0.02 1.64 3.54 0.04 0.24 0.07 0.32 0.01 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 $6 $18 $18 $90 $19 $70 $36 $63 $2 $6 $12 $45 $30 $375 $7 $13 -$1 -$1 $87 $508 $104 $321 $151 $269 $0 $148 $9 $36 $2 $8 $3 $11 $98 $312 $1 $3 $124 $395 $83 $265 $1 $3 $314 $591 $12 $44 $18 $69 $4 $12 $0 $0 $8 $28 $6 $21 $0 -$2 $3 $4 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 201320132022 2035 $52 $34 $43 $34 $47 $35 $54 $40 $70 $43 $72 $46 $60 $50 $66 $51 $73 $51 $75 $52 $113 $77 $99 $82 NA $83 $122 $91 $155 $106 $162 $112 $178 $124 $181 $125 $190 $133 $193 $136 $223 $156 $191 $167 $266 $187 $252 $216 $737 $422 $729 $532 $2,783 $2,026 $5,490 $3,997 $7,662 $7,117 NA NA CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Residential Gas Furnace Upgrade Multifamily HVAC--Gas Heat Residential Gas Heat Windows Residential Gas Heat, Insulation/Ducts/Weatherization Residential Multi-Measure Gas Heat Residential Solar Hot Water--Gas Back-up Residential Heat/Energy Recovery Ventillation--Gas Residential Wood-fueled Heat Replacing Oil/LPG Commercial Windows Natural Replacement/Retrofit Commercial Refrigeration Improvements Commercial Wastewater Treatment Improvements Commercial Water Supply Improvements Commercial Fume Hood Commercial Street Lighting Commercial Vending Machines Commercial Transformers Commercial Heating Duct Measures Commercial Energy Management Systems Commercial Cooking Equipment--Gas Commercial Hot Water Measures--Gas Commercial Heat Reclamation--Gas Commercial Wastewater Heat Exchanger--Gas Commercial Windows Measures--Gas Commercial Solar Hot Water--Gas Back-up Industrial Rural Area Lighting Industrial Traffic Signals Relamping Industrial Boiler Measures Industrial Hot Water Measures Industrial Space Heating Measures Industrial Weatherization Measures Option # RCI-24 RCI-25 RCI-26 RCI-27 RCI-28 RCI-29 RCI-30 RCI-33 RCI-51 RCI-60 RCI-63 RCI-64 RCI-68 RCI-69 RCI-72 RCI-77 RCI-81 RCI-82 RCI-87 RCI-88 RCI-90 RCI-92 RCI-94 RCI-95 RCI-124 RCI-125 RCI-126 RCI-127 RCI-128 RCI-129 76 2022 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2035 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 -$3 -$12 $0 $0 -$4 -$19 $19 $62 -$3 -$25 $4 $7 $2 $6 $0 -$1 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 -$1 -$6 -$1 -$4 $0 $0 $0 $0 $3 $8 $0 $1 $0 $0 $0 $0 -$2 -$10 -$3 -$13 -$7 -$28 -$3 -$14 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 201320132022 2035 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Industrial Electronics Industry Solvent Emissions Reduction Industrial Halon Consumption Reduction Hydropower, Conventional hydro upgrades in OR Geothermal, Enhanced Geothermal Wave, Various buoy & overtopping devices Solar (Nevada), Parabolic trough Wind (from Montana to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Wyoming to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Total - RCI options only Total - PS options only Total - All RCI and PS options Option # RCI-134 RCI-135 PS-2 PS-9 PS-11 PS-14 PS-17 PS-18 77 2022 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.64 1.96 5.60 2035 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.37 2.52 8.89 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 17.00 82.20 8.11 39.83 122.0 25.11 2 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 $58 $143 $0 -$1 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $327 $769 $761 $2,422 $1,088 $3,191 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 201320132022 2035 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA $19 $9 $94 $61 $43 $26 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo Annex 7a: Tabular cost curve results for the Integration Scenario: "Moderate Increase in Federal Action plus more State Action, integrated with the Aggressive RPS", using point-of-combustion CO2e emission factors and ranked relative to cost-effectiveness over the 2013-2035 period GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Commercial Insulation Measures--Gas Heat Schools Building Envelope Measures Commercial Laundry Equipment--Gas Commercial Heating Measures--Gas Commercial Clothes Washer Commercial Demand Control Ventilation Natural Replacement/Retro Industrial Agriculture Irrigation Improvements Commercial Heat Reclamation--Gas Commercial Windows New/Integrated Design Industrial Biomass-fired CHP Commercial Package Rooftop Measures New/Integrated Design Commercial Windows Natural Replacement/Retrofit Commercial Insulation Natural Replacement/Retrofit Industrial Digester Gas-fired CHP Commercial Demand Control Ventilation New/Integrated Design Landfill gas, Reciprocating engine Commercial Windows Measures--Gas Industrial Traffic Signals Relamping Commercial Ice-Maker Improvements Commercial Fume Hood Commercial Transformers Industrial Lumber Conveyor Replacement Commercial Refrigeration Improvements Commercial Wastewater Treatment Improvements Industrial Rural Area Lighting Commercial Heating Duct Measures Option # RCI-89 RCI-39 RCI-86 RCI-91 RCI-73 RCI-53 RCI-123 RCI-90 RCI-38 RCI-131 RCI-45 RCI-51 RCI-52 RCI-132 RCI-42 PS-4 RCI-94 RCI-125 RCI-71 RCI-68 RCI-77 RCI-120 RCI-60 RCI-63 RCI-124 RCI-81 78 2022 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.06 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 2035 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.19 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.11 0.00 -0.05 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.00 0.00 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.07 0.34 0.07 0.23 0.05 0.16 0.02 0.08 0.00 0.03 0.40 2.29 0.01 0.05 0.03 0.15 0.09 0.48 0.23 1.32 0.01 0.05 -0.19 -0.69 0.01 0.05 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.10 0.04 0.20 0.05 0.23 0.04 0.18 0.02 0.09 0.09 0.39 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 -$2 -$8 $0 $0 $0 $0 $1 -$7 -$14 -$54 -$10 -$32 -$6 -$21 -$3 -$11 -$1 -$3 -$48 -$254 -$1 -$4 -$3 -$14 -$9 -$42 -$20 -$112 -$1 -$4 $34 $57 $1 -$4 $0 -$2 -$2 -$7 -$3 -$15 -$4 -$16 -$4 -$13 -$2 -$7 -$7 -$28 $0 $0 $0 -$1 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 2013- 20132022 2035 -$558 -$510 -$261 -$262 -$249 -$209 $97 -$190 -$216 -$161 -$146 -$139 -$137 -$136 -$149 -$132 -$131 -$117 -$119 -$111 -$105 -$91 -$93 -$89 -$96 -$87 -$88 -$85 -$74 -$84 -$176 -$83 $70 -$81 -$88 -$73 -$89 -$73 -$89 -$73 -$87 -$73 -$88 -$72 -$84 -$72 -$82 -$72 -$80 -$70 -$78 -$69 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Commercial Energy Management Systems Commercial Hot Water Efficiency Measures Commercial Computer/Server Improvements Commercial Water Supply Improvements Commercial Street Lighting Commercial Vending Machines Commercial Heat Pump Water Heater Industrial Electonics Clean Room Measures Industrial Kraft Pulp Measures Commercial Package Rooftop Measures Natural Replacement/Retro Industrial Metals Arc Furnace Industrial General: Lighting and Controls Commercial Cooking/Food Service Improvements Commercial Variable Speed Chiller New/Integrated Design Industrial Fruit Storage Measures Commercial Wood-fueled Space Heat Replacing Electric Commercial Wastewater Heat Exchanger Commercial Variable Speed Chiller Natural Replacement/Retro Commercial Contols Commissioning HVAC New/Integrated Design Industrial Wood Panels Hydraulic Press Industrial Food Storage Measures Industrial Mechanical Pulp Measures Residential Lighting Improvement Industrial General: Motors Measures Residential Refrigerator/Freezer Improvement Industrial Cold Storage Measures Commercial LDP New/Integrated Design Industrial General: Transformers Commercial Solar Water Heat Commercial ECM on VAV Boxes Natural Replacement/Retro Option # RCI-82 RCI-75 RCI-61 RCI-64 RCI-69 RCI-72 RCI-76 RCI-110 RCI-118 RCI-56 RCI-116 RCI-102 RCI-62 RCI-44 RCI-113 RCI-97 RCI-74 RCI-55 RCI-47 RCI-121 RCI-114 RCI-117 RCI-16 RCI-103 RCI-15 RCI-112 RCI-34 RCI-106 RCI-80 RCI-54 79 2022 0.01 0.00 0.08 0.01 0.03 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.29 0.00 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.00 0.01 0.00 2035 0.02 0.01 0.13 0.01 0.05 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.06 0.04 0.00 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.05 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.21 0.01 0.04 0.02 0.04 0.01 0.02 0.01 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.06 0.29 0.02 0.07 0.32 1.89 0.04 0.17 0.12 0.65 0.01 0.05 0.07 0.34 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.09 0.05 0.21 0.00 0.01 0.16 0.76 0.11 0.58 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.21 0.01 0.09 0.02 0.11 0.15 0.69 0.02 0.12 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.01 0.05 1.94 4.93 0.02 0.10 0.10 0.54 0.04 0.22 0.07 0.45 0.02 0.10 0.04 0.19 0.01 0.08 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 -$5 -$20 -$1 -$5 -$29 -$126 -$2 -$11 -$8 -$42 -$1 -$3 -$5 -$22 $0 -$1 -$1 -$6 -$3 -$13 $0 $0 -$12 -$46 -$8 -$33 $0 -$1 -$3 -$12 -$1 -$5 -$1 -$6 -$9 -$36 -$1 -$7 $0 -$1 $0 -$1 -$1 -$2 -$118 -$216 -$1 -$4 -$5 -$23 -$2 -$9 -$3 -$19 -$1 -$4 -$2 -$8 -$1 -$3 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 2013- 20132022 2035 -$78 -$69 -$78 -$67 -$90 -$67 -$62 -$65 -$64 -$64 -$65 -$64 -$77 -$64 -$75 -$63 -$75 -$63 -$67 -$62 -$74 -$62 -$73 -$61 -$71 -$58 -$67 -$57 -$66 -$57 -$55 -$56 -$61 -$54 -$61 -$53 -$52 -$53 -$55 -$49 -$55 -$49 -$55 -$49 -$61 -$44 -$48 -$44 -$48 -$43 -$46 -$42 -$48 -$41 -$45 -$41 -$44 -$41 -$45 -$41 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Industrial Food Processing Measures Commercial Refrigeration Improvements Commercial ECM on VAV Boxes New/Integrated Design Commercial Chiller Tower 6F Approach Commercial LDP Natural Replacement/Retrofit Commercial Economizer Measures Commercial Heat Reclamation Measures Commercial Lighting Controls New/Integrated Design Industrial General: Materials Movement Measures Industrial General: Air Compressor Measures Commercial Lighting Controls Natural Replacement/Retrofit Industrial General: Fan Measures Schools Lighting Measures Industrial Agriculture Pump and Related Measures Manufactured Home Weatherization--Insulation Residential Heat Pump Water Heater Industrial General: Energy Management Commercial DVC Hood Commercial Contols Commissioning HVAC Retrofit Residential Electric Water Heat Efficiency Industrial Electonics Chip Fab Measures Industrial Gas-fired CHP Industrial General: Pump Measures Residential Electronics Improvements Industrial Cement Production Emissions Reduction Commercial Gas-fired CHP Commercial Daylighting New/Integrated Design Industrial Grocery Distribution Measures Commercial Rooftop Condensing Burner Commercial Low Press. Dist. Complex HVAC New/Integrated Design Option # RCI-111 RCI-70 RCI-43 RCI-83 RCI-48 RCI-78 RCI-79 RCI-37 RCI-107 RCI-101 RCI-50 RCI-104 RCI-35 RCI-122 RCI-4 RCI-12 RCI-108 RCI-65 RCI-58 RCI-11 RCI-109 RCI-130 RCI-105 RCI-22 RCI-133 RCI-96 RCI-36 RCI-115 RCI-84 RCI-40 80 2022 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.23 0.03 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.04 0.02 0.03 0.02 0.19 0.13 0.01 0.07 0.05 0.00 0.52 0.04 0.44 0.00 0.55 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2035 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.40 0.05 0.00 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.07 0.03 0.02 0.04 0.35 0.23 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.01 0.98 0.06 0.49 0.00 1.27 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.09 0.44 0.07 0.37 0.00 0.02 0.01 0.07 1.10 5.16 0.12 0.58 0.00 0.01 0.10 0.50 0.10 0.46 0.10 0.45 0.08 0.53 0.18 0.84 0.07 0.34 0.13 0.40 0.11 0.53 0.82 4.32 0.60 2.87 0.03 0.09 0.32 1.03 0.23 1.23 0.02 0.09 2.06 11.76 0.17 0.79 2.62 8.41 -0.02 -0.05 2.09 13.55 0.02 0.13 0.02 0.08 0.01 0.04 0.01 0.05 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 -$4 -$17 -$3 -$15 $0 -$1 -$1 -$2 -$45 -$190 -$4 -$21 $0 $0 -$3 -$16 -$3 -$15 -$3 -$15 -$3 -$17 -$5 -$26 -$2 -$11 -$4 -$12 -$4 -$16 -$24 -$126 -$15 -$79 -$1 -$3 -$6 -$27 -$5 -$30 $0 -$2 -$54 -$251 -$3 -$16 -$9 -$166 $0 $1 -$29 -$175 $0 -$2 $0 -$1 $0 $0 $0 $0 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 2013- 20132022 2035 -$42 -$39 -$42 -$39 -$41 -$38 -$39 -$37 -$40 -$37 -$37 -$36 -$34 -$34 -$33 -$33 -$33 -$33 -$32 -$32 -$35 -$32 -$30 -$31 -$33 -$31 -$28 -$30 -$32 -$30 -$30 -$29 -$25 -$28 -$24 -$27 -$20 -$26 -$22 -$24 -$17 -$22 -$26 -$21 -$15 -$21 -$3 -$20 $2 -$15 -$14 -$13 -$7 -$12 $2 -$8 $4 -$7 $7 -$4 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Industrial Paper Sector Measures Schools HVAC Resdential CHP Commercial Parking Lighting Commercial Exit Signs Single Family Weatherization--Windows Residential Wood-fueled Heat Replacing Electric Resistance Commercial Daylighting Natural Replacement/Retrofit Commercial Signage Commercial Premium HVAC New/Integrated Design Commercial Premium HVAC Natural Replacement/Retro Single Family Home HVAC Conversion/Upgrade Manufactured Home HVAC Conversion/Upgrade Tidal current, Water current turbines Multifamily Weatherization--Windows Geothermal, Binary hydrothermal Hydropower, New projects Manufactured Home Weatherization--Windows Single Family Weatherization--Insulation Animal manure, Reciprocating engine Residential Cooking Appliance Improvement Residential Gravity Film Heat Exchanger Offshore Wind, Floating WTG Wastewater treatment gas, Reciprocating engines Industrial Solar PV Wind (in OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Woody residues, Steam-electric - brownfield Commercial Solar PV Residential Solar Water Heat--Electric Back-up Commercial Ground-source Heat Pump Option # RCI-119 RCI-41 RCI-31 RCI-59 RCI-66 RCI-9 RCI-32 RCI-49 RCI-67 RCI-46 RCI-57 RCI-3 RCI-2 PS-10 RCI-7 PS-8 PS-1 RCI-5 RCI-8 PS-5 RCI-18 RCI-17 PS-12 PS-3 RCI-136 PS-15 PS-6 RCI-100 RCI-19 RCI-85 81 2022 0.00 0.01 0.21 0.02 0.00 0.07 0.15 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.19 0.13 0.12 0.03 0.48 0.02 0.02 0.09 0.08 0.04 0.04 0.00 0.01 0.17 0.14 0.26 0.19 0.19 0.00 2035 0.01 0.01 0.40 0.05 0.00 0.10 0.29 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.31 0.24 0.13 0.05 0.33 0.15 0.04 0.15 0.06 0.08 0.08 0.55 0.01 0.25 0.20 0.16 0.28 0.27 0.00 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.02 0.09 0.02 0.09 0.84 4.76 0.08 0.52 0.01 0.05 0.32 1.47 0.63 3.52 0.02 0.10 0.03 0.16 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.83 4.11 0.52 2.90 0.29 1.99 0.16 0.73 1.22 5.94 0.06 1.74 0.11 0.52 0.42 2.07 0.57 1.38 0.18 0.98 0.16 0.91 0.00 5.86 0.09 0.22 0.81 3.66 0.99 3.43 1.70 4.00 0.91 4.11 0.88 3.96 0.01 0.03 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 $0 $0 $1 $0 $5 $16 $2 $6 $0 $1 $9 $19 $17 $46 $1 $1 $1 $2 $0 $0 $0 $0 $27 $68 $18 $52 $10 $57 $8 $22 $45 $187 $3 $73 $7 $23 $26 $96 $37 $67 $15 $51 $14 $51 $0 $349 $7 $13 $87 $229 $89 $227 $156 $283 $114 $309 $119 $367 $1 $3 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 2013- 20132022 2035 $12 -$1 $28 $2 $6 $3 $30 $12 $30 $13 $28 $13 $26 $13 $27 $13 $42 $15 $34 $15 $33 $16 $32 $17 $34 $18 $32 $29 $50 $29 $37 $31 $48 $42 $65 $44 $62 $46 $65 $49 $84 $52 $85 $56 NA $60 $80 $61 $107 $63 $90 $66 $91 $71 $124 $75 $135 $93 $154 $101 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Wind (from Alberta to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Multifamily Weatherization--Insulation Residential Dishwasher Improvement Woody residues, Steam-electric - greenfield Commercial Wood-fueled Space Heat Replacing Oil/LPG Residential Solar Photovoltaic Residential Refrigerator Recycle Residential Laundry Appliance Improvement Solar, Utility-scale Photovoltaic arrays Residential Cooling Appliances Commercial Wood-fueled Space Heat Replacing Gas Home Energy Monitor Commercial Insulation Measures--Gas Residential Gas Water Heat Measures Residential Gas Furnace Upgrade Multifamily HVAC--Gas Heat Residential Gas Heat Windows Residential Gas Heat, Insulation/Ducts/Weatherization Residential Multi-Measure Gas Heat Residential Solar Hot Water--Gas Back-up Residential Heat/Energy Recovery Ventillation--Gas Residential Wood-fueled Heat Replacing Oil/LPG Commercial Cooking Equipment--Gas Commercial Hot Water Measures--Gas Commercial Wastewater Heat Exchanger--Gas Commercial Solar Hot Water--Gas Back-up Industrial Boiler Measures Industrial Hot Water Measures Industrial Space Heating Measures Industrial Weatherization Measures Option # PS-16 RCI-6 RCI-14 PS-7 RCI-99 RCI-10 RCI-21 RCI-13 PS-13 RCI-1 RCI-98 RCI-20 RCI-93 RCI-23 RCI-24 RCI-25 RCI-26 RCI-27 RCI-28 RCI-29 RCI-30 RCI-33 RCI-87 RCI-88 RCI-92 RCI-95 RCI-126 RCI-127 RCI-128 RCI-129 82 2022 0.00 0.02 0.03 0.21 0.00 0.10 0.00 0.07 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2035 0.12 0.03 0.05 0.17 0.00 0.15 0.00 0.13 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.00 1.24 0.08 0.41 0.13 0.63 1.38 3.68 0.00 0.00 0.48 2.16 0.00 0.02 0.30 1.56 0.06 0.28 0.01 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 $0 $125 $12 $48 $24 $85 $240 $512 $0 $0 $111 $353 $1 $4 $94 $351 $17 $70 $7 $22 $0 -$4 $68 $229 $0 -$2 $0 -$20 -$3 -$12 $0 -$2 -$5 -$20 $21 $67 -$3 -$27 $4 $8 $3 $7 -$1 -$6 -$2 -$7 -$3 -$12 $0 $0 $0 $1 -$3 -$13 -$4 -$16 -$7 -$31 -$4 -$15 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 2013- 20132022 2035 NA $101 $155 $117 $192 $135 $173 $139 $428 $151 $230 $163 $265 $189 $315 $225 $302 $248 $770 $548 $401 $1,125 $2,943 $2,174 $9,255 $8,711 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Industrial Electronics Industry Solvent Emissions Reduction Industrial Halon Consumption Reduction Hydropower, Conventional hydro upgrades in OR Geothermal, Enhanced Geothermal Wave, Various buoy & overtopping devices Solar (Nevada), Parabolic trough Wind (from Montana to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Wyoming to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Total - RCI options only Total - PS options only Total - All RCI and PS options Option # RCI-134 RCI-135 PS-2 PS-9 PS-11 PS-14 PS-17 PS-18 83 2022 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.27 1.34 6.61 2035 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.74 1.85 10.59 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 114.3 23.98 8 6.17 29.05 143.4 30.15 3 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 $75 $160 $0 -$1 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $262 -$91 $637 $2,020 $899 $1,929 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 2013- 20132022 2035 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA $11 -$1 $103 $70 $30 $13 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo Annex 7b: Tabular cost curve results for the Integration Scenario: " Moderate Increase in Federal Action plus more State Action, integrated with the Aggressive RPS ", using full fuel cycle CO2e emission factors and ranked relative to cost-effectiveness over the 2013-2035 period GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Commercial Insulation Measures--Gas Heat Landfill gas, Reciprocating engine Schools Building Envelope Measures Commercial Laundry Equipment--Gas Commercial Heating Measures--Gas Commercial Clothes Washer Commercial Demand Control Ventilation Natural Replacement/Retro Industrial Agriculture Irrigation Improvements Commercial Heat Reclamation--Gas Commercial Windows New/Integrated Design Industrial Biomass-fired CHP Commercial Package Rooftop Measures New/Integrated Design Commercial Windows Natural Replacement/Retrofit Commercial Insulation Natural Replacement/Retrofit Industrial Digester Gas-fired CHP Commercial Demand Control Ventilation New/Integrated Design Commercial Windows Measures--Gas Industrial Traffic Signals Relamping Commercial Ice-Maker Improvements Commercial Fume Hood Commercial Transformers Industrial Lumber Conveyor Replacement Commercial Refrigeration Improvements Commercial Wastewater Treatment Improvements Industrial Rural Area Lighting Commercial Heating Duct Measures Option # RCI-89 PS-4 RCI-39 RCI-86 RCI-91 RCI-73 RCI-53 RCI-123 RCI-90 RCI-38 RCI-131 RCI-45 RCI-51 RCI-52 RCI-132 RCI-42 RCI-94 RCI-125 RCI-71 RCI-68 RCI-77 RCI-120 RCI-60 RCI-63 RCI-124 RCI-81 84 2022 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 2035 0.00 -0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.23 0.01 0.01 0.05 0.14 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.03 0.00 0.00 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.00 0.02 -0.01 -0.22 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.08 0.41 0.08 0.28 0.06 0.19 0.02 0.10 0.01 0.03 0.48 2.77 0.01 0.06 0.04 0.19 0.11 0.58 0.27 1.60 0.01 0.06 0.01 0.06 0.01 0.03 0.02 0.12 0.04 0.25 0.05 0.27 0.05 0.21 0.02 0.11 0.11 0.48 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 -$2 -$8 $34 $57 $0 $0 $0 $0 $1 -$7 -$14 -$54 -$10 -$32 -$6 -$21 -$3 -$11 -$1 -$3 -$48 -$254 -$1 -$4 -$3 -$14 -$9 -$42 -$20 -$112 -$1 -$4 $1 -$4 $0 -$2 -$2 -$7 -$3 -$15 -$4 -$16 -$4 -$13 -$2 -$7 -$7 -$28 $0 $0 $0 -$1 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 201320132022 2035 -$469 -$423 -$2,803 -$260 -$220 -$217 -$209 -$174 $81 -$157 -$182 -$133 -$123 -$116 -$115 -$113 -$125 -$109 -$111 -$97 -$100 -$92 -$88 -$75 -$78 -$74 -$81 -$72 -$74 -$70 -$62 -$70 $59 -$68 -$74 -$61 -$75 -$60 -$75 -$60 -$73 -$60 -$74 -$60 -$71 -$60 -$69 -$60 -$68 -$58 -$66 -$57 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Commercial Energy Management Systems Commercial Hot Water Efficiency Measures Commercial Computer/Server Improvements Commercial Water Supply Improvements Commercial Street Lighting Commercial Heat Pump Water Heater Commercial Vending Machines Industrial Electonics Clean Room Measures Industrial Kraft Pulp Measures Commercial Package Rooftop Measures Natural Replacement/Retro Industrial Metals Arc Furnace Industrial General: Lighting and Controls Commercial Cooking/Food Service Improvements Commercial Variable Speed Chiller New/Integrated Design Industrial Fruit Storage Measures Commercial Wood-fueled Space Heat Replacing Electric Commercial Wastewater Heat Exchanger Commercial Variable Speed Chiller Natural Replacement/Retro Commercial Contols Commissioning HVAC New/Integrated Design Industrial Wood Panels Hydraulic Press Industrial Food Storage Measures Industrial Mechanical Pulp Measures Residential Lighting Improvement Industrial General: Motors Measures Residential Refrigerator/Freezer Improvement Industrial Cold Storage Measures Industrial General: Transformers Commercial LDP New/Integrated Design Commercial Solar Water Heat Commercial ECM on VAV Boxes Natural Replacement/Retro Option # RCI-82 RCI-75 RCI-61 RCI-64 RCI-69 RCI-76 RCI-72 RCI-110 RCI-118 RCI-56 RCI-116 RCI-102 RCI-62 RCI-44 RCI-113 RCI-97 RCI-74 RCI-55 RCI-47 RCI-121 RCI-114 RCI-117 RCI-16 RCI-103 RCI-15 RCI-112 RCI-106 RCI-34 RCI-80 RCI-54 85 2022 0.01 0.00 0.10 0.01 0.03 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.04 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.33 0.01 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.00 2035 0.03 0.01 0.17 0.01 0.06 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.00 0.07 0.05 0.00 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.06 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.26 0.01 0.06 0.02 0.01 0.05 0.02 0.01 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.07 0.35 0.02 0.09 0.38 2.28 0.05 0.21 0.14 0.78 0.08 0.42 0.01 0.06 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.11 0.06 0.26 0.00 0.01 0.19 0.91 0.13 0.70 0.00 0.02 0.05 0.25 0.02 0.11 0.03 0.13 0.18 0.83 0.02 0.15 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.01 0.06 2.31 5.91 0.02 0.12 0.12 0.66 0.05 0.26 0.03 0.12 0.08 0.55 0.05 0.23 0.02 0.09 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 -$5 -$20 -$1 -$5 -$29 -$126 -$2 -$11 -$8 -$42 -$5 -$22 -$1 -$3 $0 -$1 -$1 -$6 -$3 -$13 $0 $0 -$12 -$46 -$8 -$33 $0 -$1 -$3 -$12 -$1 -$5 -$1 -$6 -$9 -$36 -$1 -$7 $0 -$1 $0 -$1 -$1 -$2 -$118 -$216 -$1 -$4 -$5 -$23 -$2 -$9 -$1 -$4 -$3 -$19 -$2 -$8 -$1 -$3 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 201320132022 2035 -$66 -$57 -$66 -$55 -$75 -$55 -$52 -$54 -$54 -$53 -$64 -$53 -$55 -$53 -$63 -$53 -$63 -$52 -$57 -$52 -$62 -$51 -$61 -$51 -$60 -$48 -$56 -$48 -$56 -$47 -$46 -$46 -$51 -$44 -$51 -$44 -$43 -$44 -$47 -$41 -$46 -$40 -$46 -$40 -$51 -$37 -$40 -$36 -$41 -$35 -$39 -$35 -$38 -$34 -$40 -$34 -$37 -$34 -$38 -$34 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Industrial Food Processing Measures Commercial Refrigeration Improvements Commercial ECM on VAV Boxes New/Integrated Design Commercial Chiller Tower 6F Approach Commercial LDP Natural Replacement/Retrofit Commercial Economizer Measures Commercial Heat Reclamation Measures Commercial Lighting Controls New/Integrated Design Industrial General: Materials Movement Measures Industrial General: Air Compressor Measures Commercial Lighting Controls Natural Replacement/Retrofit Industrial General: Fan Measures Schools Lighting Measures Industrial Agriculture Pump and Related Measures Manufactured Home Weatherization--Insulation Residential Heat Pump Water Heater Industrial General: Energy Management Commercial DVC Hood Commercial Contols Commissioning HVAC Retrofit Residential Electric Water Heat Efficiency Industrial Electonics Chip Fab Measures Industrial Gas-fired CHP Industrial General: Pump Measures Residential Electronics Improvements Industrial Cement Production Emissions Reduction Commercial Gas-fired CHP Commercial Daylighting New/Integrated Design Industrial Grocery Distribution Measures Commercial Rooftop Condensing Burner Commercial Low Press. Dist. Complex HVAC New/Integrated Design Option # RCI-111 RCI-70 RCI-43 RCI-83 RCI-48 RCI-78 RCI-79 RCI-37 RCI-107 RCI-101 RCI-50 RCI-104 RCI-35 RCI-122 RCI-4 RCI-12 RCI-108 RCI-65 RCI-58 RCI-11 RCI-109 RCI-130 RCI-105 RCI-22 RCI-133 RCI-96 RCI-36 RCI-115 RCI-84 RCI-40 86 2022 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.27 0.03 0.00 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.22 0.15 0.01 0.08 0.06 0.00 0.61 0.04 0.52 0.00 0.64 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 2035 0.04 0.04 0.00 0.01 0.49 0.06 0.00 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.03 0.02 0.05 0.43 0.28 0.01 0.06 0.12 0.01 1.21 0.08 0.60 0.00 1.55 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.01 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.11 0.53 0.08 0.45 0.00 0.03 0.02 0.08 1.31 6.23 0.14 0.70 0.00 0.01 0.12 0.60 0.12 0.56 0.11 0.55 0.09 0.64 0.21 1.01 0.09 0.42 0.15 0.48 0.13 0.64 0.98 5.22 0.72 3.46 0.03 0.11 0.38 1.24 0.27 1.48 0.02 0.11 2.44 14.20 0.20 0.95 3.12 10.12 -0.02 -0.06 2.47 16.39 0.02 0.16 0.02 0.10 0.01 0.05 0.01 0.06 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 -$4 -$17 -$3 -$15 $0 -$1 -$1 -$2 -$45 -$190 -$4 -$21 $0 $0 -$3 -$16 -$3 -$15 -$3 -$15 -$3 -$17 -$5 -$26 -$2 -$11 -$4 -$12 -$4 -$16 -$24 -$126 -$15 -$79 -$1 -$3 -$6 -$27 -$5 -$30 $0 -$2 -$54 -$251 -$3 -$16 -$9 -$166 $0 $1 -$29 -$175 $0 -$2 $0 -$1 $0 $0 $0 $0 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 201320132022 2035 -$35 -$33 -$35 -$33 -$35 -$32 -$32 -$31 -$34 -$30 -$31 -$30 -$29 -$28 -$28 -$27 -$28 -$27 -$27 -$27 -$30 -$26 -$25 -$26 -$28 -$25 -$24 -$25 -$27 -$25 -$25 -$24 -$21 -$23 -$21 -$23 -$17 -$22 -$19 -$20 -$14 -$18 -$22 -$18 -$13 -$17 -$3 -$16 $2 -$12 -$12 -$11 -$6 -$10 $2 -$7 $3 -$6 $6 -$3 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Industrial Paper Sector Measures Schools HVAC Resdential CHP Commercial Parking Lighting Commercial Exit Signs Single Family Weatherization--Windows Residential Wood-fueled Heat Replacing Electric Resistance Commercial Daylighting Natural Replacement/Retrofit Commercial Signage Commercial Premium HVAC New/Integrated Design Commercial Premium HVAC Natural Replacement/Retro Single Family Home HVAC Conversion/Upgrade Manufactured Home HVAC Conversion/Upgrade Tidal current, Water current turbines Multifamily Weatherization--Windows Geothermal, Binary hydrothermal Hydropower, New projects Manufactured Home Weatherization--Windows Single Family Weatherization--Insulation Animal manure, Reciprocating engine Residential Cooking Appliance Improvement Residential Gravity Film Heat Exchanger Offshore Wind, Floating WTG Wastewater treatment gas, Reciprocating engines Industrial Solar PV Wind (in OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Commercial Solar PV Woody residues, Steam-electric - brownfield Residential Solar Water Heat--Electric Back-up Wind (from Alberta to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Option # RCI-119 RCI-41 RCI-31 RCI-59 RCI-66 RCI-9 RCI-32 RCI-49 RCI-67 RCI-46 RCI-57 RCI-3 RCI-2 PS-10 RCI-7 PS-8 PS-1 RCI-5 RCI-8 PS-5 RCI-18 RCI-17 PS-12 PS-3 RCI-136 PS-15 RCI-100 PS-6 RCI-19 PS-16 87 2022 0.00 0.01 0.24 0.02 0.00 0.08 0.18 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.22 0.15 0.14 0.04 0.56 0.03 0.03 0.11 0.10 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.02 0.20 0.17 0.23 0.24 0.22 0.00 2035 0.01 0.01 0.49 0.06 0.00 0.13 0.36 0.01 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.38 0.30 0.17 0.06 0.42 0.19 0.05 0.19 0.07 0.10 0.09 0.70 0.01 0.30 0.25 0.34 0.14 0.33 0.15 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.02 0.11 0.03 0.11 1.00 5.75 0.09 0.63 0.01 0.06 0.38 1.77 0.75 4.26 0.02 0.13 0.04 0.19 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.03 0.99 4.96 0.62 3.51 0.35 2.46 0.19 0.89 1.46 7.27 0.07 2.19 0.13 0.63 0.50 2.50 0.69 1.68 0.21 1.18 0.19 1.10 0.00 7.41 0.11 0.26 0.97 4.41 1.19 4.23 1.09 4.95 1.59 3.69 1.05 4.78 0.00 1.56 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 $0 $0 $1 $0 $5 $16 $2 $6 $0 $1 $9 $19 $17 $46 $1 $1 $1 $2 $0 $0 $0 $0 $27 $68 $18 $52 $10 $57 $8 $22 $45 $187 $3 $73 $7 $23 $26 $96 $37 $67 $15 $51 $14 $51 $0 $349 $7 $13 $87 $229 $89 $227 $114 $309 $156 $283 $119 $367 $0 $125 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 201320132022 2035 $10 -$1 $24 $1 $5 $3 $25 $10 $25 $11 $24 $11 $22 $11 $23 $11 $36 $13 $29 $13 $28 $14 $27 $14 $29 $15 $27 $23 $42 $24 $31 $26 $40 $33 $54 $37 $52 $38 $54 $40 $70 $43 $72 $46 NA $47 $66 $50 $90 $52 $75 $54 $104 $62 $98 $77 $113 $77 NA $80 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Commercial Ground-source Heat Pump Multifamily Weatherization--Insulation Residential Dishwasher Improvement Commercial Wood-fueled Space Heat Replacing Oil/LPG Residential Solar Photovoltaic Woody residues, Steam-electric - greenfield Residential Refrigerator Recycle Residential Laundry Appliance Improvement Solar, Utility-scale Photovoltaic arrays Residential Cooling Appliances Commercial Wood-fueled Space Heat Replacing Gas Home Energy Monitor Commercial Insulation Measures--Gas Residential Gas Water Heat Measures Residential Gas Furnace Upgrade Multifamily HVAC--Gas Heat Residential Gas Heat Windows Residential Gas Heat, Insulation/Ducts/Weatherization Residential Multi-Measure Gas Heat Residential Solar Hot Water--Gas Back-up Residential Heat/Energy Recovery Ventillation--Gas Residential Wood-fueled Heat Replacing Oil/LPG Commercial Cooking Equipment--Gas Commercial Hot Water Measures--Gas Commercial Wastewater Heat Exchanger--Gas Commercial Solar Hot Water--Gas Back-up Industrial Boiler Measures Industrial Hot Water Measures Industrial Space Heating Measures Industrial Weatherization Measures Option # RCI-85 RCI-6 RCI-14 RCI-99 RCI-10 PS-7 RCI-21 RCI-13 PS-13 RCI-1 RCI-98 RCI-20 RCI-93 RCI-23 RCI-24 RCI-25 RCI-26 RCI-27 RCI-28 RCI-29 RCI-30 RCI-33 RCI-87 RCI-88 RCI-92 RCI-95 RCI-126 RCI-127 RCI-128 RCI-129 88 2022 0.00 0.02 0.03 0.00 0.12 0.20 0.00 0.08 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2035 0.00 0.04 0.06 0.00 0.18 0.15 0.00 0.15 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.01 0.03 0.10 0.50 0.15 0.76 0.00 0.00 0.57 2.61 1.29 3.39 0.01 0.02 0.35 1.88 0.07 0.34 0.01 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 $1 $3 $12 $48 $24 $85 $0 $0 $111 $353 $240 $512 $1 $4 $94 $351 $17 $70 $7 $22 $0 -$4 $68 $229 $0 -$2 $0 -$20 -$3 -$12 $0 -$2 -$5 -$20 $21 $67 -$3 -$27 $4 $8 $3 $7 -$1 -$6 -$2 -$7 -$3 -$12 $0 $0 $0 $1 -$3 -$13 -$4 -$16 -$7 -$31 -$4 -$15 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 201320132022 2035 $130 $83 $130 $97 $162 $112 $361 $125 $193 $136 $186 $151 $223 $156 $266 $187 $252 $203 $648 $455 $338 $931 $2,477 $1,802 $7,788 $7,220 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Industrial Electronics Industry Solvent Emissions Reduction Industrial Halon Consumption Reduction Hydropower, Conventional hydro upgrades in OR Geothermal, Enhanced Geothermal Wave, Various buoy & overtopping devices Solar (Nevada), Parabolic trough Wind (from Montana to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Wyoming to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Total - RCI options only Total - PS options only Total - All RCI and PS options Option # RCI-134 RCI-135 PS-2 PS-9 PS-11 PS-14 PS-17 PS-18 89 2022 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.12 1.48 7.60 2035 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.72 2.26 12.98 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 138.0 28.49 1 6.80 34.27 172.2 35.29 8 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 $75 $160 $0 -$1 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $262 -$91 $637 $2,020 $899 $1,929 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 201320132022 2035 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA $9 -$1 $94 $59 $25 $11 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo Annex 8a: Tabular results for benchmark & integration scenarios, Power supply measures only (using point-ofcombustion CO2e emission-factors) a) Overall total results (point-of-combustion) GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 201320132022 2035 PS Option 2022 2035 Standard RPS All 1.30 2.12 4.50 28.62 $279 $1,777 $62 $62 Aggressive RPS All 2.15 2.80 8.59 42.65 $997 $3,805 $116 $89 All 1.03 1.60 3.47 22.79 $171 $1,204 $49 $53 All 0.98 1.44 3.07 20.42 $142 $1,006 $46 $49 All 0.78 1.19 2.00 16.34 $89 $698 $44 $43 All 1.80 2.33 7.54 35.53 $759 $2,725 $101 $77 All 1.76 2.02 7.35 33.36 $761 $2,422 $104 $73 All 1.34 1.85 6.17 29.05 $637 $2,020 $103 $70 Option description Modest Effort, Continued State and Federal Policies, integrated with Standard RPS Moderate Increase in Federal Action, integrated with Standard RPS Moderate Increase in Federal Action plus more State Action, integrated with Standard RPS Modest Effort, Continued State and Federal Policies, integrated with Aggressive RPS Moderate Increase in Federal Action, integrated with Aggressive RPS Moderate Increase in Federal Action plus more State Action, integrated with Aggressive RPS 90 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo b) Standard RPS (point-of-combustion) GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Hydropower, New projects Hydropower, Conventional hydro upgrades in OR Wastewater treatment gas, Reciprocating engines Landfill gas, Reciprocating engine Animal manure, Reciprocating engine Woody residues, Steam-electric - brownfield Woody residues, Steam-electric - greenfield Geothermal, Binary hydrothermal Geothermal, Enhanced Geothermal Tidal current, Water current turbines Wave, Various buoy & overtopping devices Offshore Wind, Floating WTG Solar, Utility-scale Photovoltaic arrays Solar (Nevada), Parabolic trough Wind (in OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Alberta to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Montana to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Wyoming to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Total PS Option PS-1 PS-2 PS-3 PS-4 PS-5 PS-6 PS-7 PS-8 PS-9 PS-10 PS-11 PS-12 PS-13 PS-14 PS-15 PS-16 PS-17 PS-18 2022 0.22 0.00 0.01 -0.01 0.08 0.14 0.00 0.48 0.00 0.19 0.00 0.16 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.30 91 2035 0.13 0.00 0.01 -0.06 0.05 0.12 0.13 0.28 0.00 0.11 0.00 0.47 0.01 0.00 0.58 0.30 0.00 0.00 2.12 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.58 2.56 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.15 -0.08 -0.69 0.64 1.37 0.56 2.41 0.00 1.45 1.78 6.05 0.00 0.00 0.50 2.21 0.00 0.00 0.42 6.00 0.06 0.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.37 0.00 1.49 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.50 28.62 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 $30 $106 $0 $0 $2 $8 $21 $39 $39 $66 $43 $153 $0 $220 $79 $204 $0 $0 $18 $62 $0 $0 $30 $370 $18 $69 $0 $0 $0 $324 $0 $156 $0 $0 $0 $0 $1,77 $279 7 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 201320132022 2035 $51 $41 NA NA $61 $51 -$266 -$57 $62 $49 $77 $64 NA $152 $44 $34 NA NA $36 $28 NA NA $71 $62 $297 $265 NA NA NA $60 NA $104 NA NA NA NA $62 $62 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo c) Aggressive RPS (point-of-combustion) GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Hydropower, New projects Hydropower, Conventional hydro upgrades in OR Wastewater treatment gas, Reciprocating engines Landfill gas, Reciprocating engine Animal manure, Reciprocating engine Woody residues, Steam-electric - brownfield Woody residues, Steam-electric - greenfield Geothermal, Binary hydrothermal Geothermal, Enhanced Geothermal Tidal current, Water current turbines Wave, Various buoy & overtopping devices Offshore Wind, Floating WTG Solar, Utility-scale Photovoltaic arrays Solar (Nevada), Parabolic trough Wind (in OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Alberta to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Montana to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Wyoming to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Total PS Option PS-1 PS-2 PS-3 PS-4 PS-5 PS-6 PS-7 PS-8 PS-9 PS-10 PS-11 PS-12 PS-13 PS-14 PS-15 PS-16 PS-17 PS-18 2022 0.21 0.00 0.01 -0.02 0.08 0.24 0.26 0.45 0.00 0.18 0.00 0.30 0.02 0.00 0.27 0.16 0.00 0.00 2.15 92 2035 0.12 0.03 0.01 -0.07 0.04 0.11 0.11 0.26 0.00 0.10 0.00 0.43 0.01 0.00 0.54 0.64 0.46 0.00 2.80 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.53 2.38 0.00 0.28 0.08 0.19 -0.28 -0.97 0.51 1.20 1.46 3.27 1.59 3.54 1.40 5.41 0.00 0.00 0.45 2.06 0.00 0.00 0.53 6.31 0.05 0.24 0.00 0.00 1.22 7.90 1.05 8.24 0.00 2.61 0.00 0.00 8.59 42.65 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 $29 $110 $0 $72 $7 $13 $33 $54 $36 $65 $153 $274 $317 $596 $64 $198 $0 $0 $18 $65 $0 $0 $39 $414 $18 $70 $0 $0 $114 $556 $170 $1,001 $0 $318 $0 $0 $3,80 $997 5 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 201320132022 2035 $56 $46 NA $254 $88 $68 -$115 -$55 $71 $54 $104 $84 $200 $168 $46 $37 NA NA $39 $32 NA NA $73 $66 $329 $286 NA NA $93 $70 $162 $121 NA $122 NA NA $116 $89 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo d) Modest Effort, Continued State and Federal Policies, integrated with Standard RPS (point-of-combustion) GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Hydropower, New projects Hydropower, Conventional hydro upgrades in OR Wastewater treatment gas, Reciprocating engines Landfill gas, Reciprocating engine Animal manure, Reciprocating engine Woody residues, Steam-electric - brownfield Woody residues, Steam-electric - greenfield Geothermal, Binary hydrothermal Geothermal, Enhanced Geothermal Tidal current, Water current turbines Wave, Various buoy & overtopping devices Offshore Wind, Floating WTG Solar, Utility-scale Photovoltaic arrays Solar (Nevada), Parabolic trough Wind (in OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Alberta to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Montana to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Wyoming to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Total PS Option PS-1 PS-2 PS-3 PS-4 PS-5 PS-6 PS-7 PS-8 PS-9 PS-10 PS-11 PS-12 PS-13 PS-14 PS-15 PS-16 PS-17 PS-18 2022 0.22 NA NA 0.00 0.08 0.04 NA 0.48 NA 0.19 NA NA 0.02 NA NA NA NA NA 1.03 93 2035 0.14 NA 0.01 -0.06 0.05 0.13 0.14 0.30 NA 0.12 NA 0.49 0.01 NA 0.26 NA NA NA 1.60 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.59 2.67 NA NA NA 0.09 -0.04 -0.61 0.60 1.37 0.09 1.76 NA 1.53 1.49 5.99 NA NA 0.68 2.48 NA NA NA 5.53 0.06 0.27 NA NA NA 1.70 NA NA NA NA NA NA 3.47 22.79 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 $26 $99 NA NA NA $4 $5 $20 $36 $62 $6 $101 NA $204 $56 $174 NA NA $25 $66 NA NA NA $315 $17 $68 NA NA NA $91 NA NA NA NA NA NA $1,20 $171 4 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 201320132022 2035 $45 $37 NA NA NA $48 -$137 -$34 $60 $45 $61 $57 NA $133 $38 $29 NA NA $36 $26 NA NA NA $57 $290 $251 NA NA NA $53 NA NA NA NA NA NA $49 $53 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo e) Moderate Increase in Federal Action, integrated with Standard RPS (point-of-combustion) GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Hydropower, New projects Hydropower, Conventional hydro upgrades in OR Wastewater treatment gas, Reciprocating engines Landfill gas, Reciprocating engine Animal manure, Reciprocating engine Woody residues, Steam-electric - brownfield Woody residues, Steam-electric - greenfield Geothermal, Binary hydrothermal Geothermal, Enhanced Geothermal Tidal current, Water current turbines Wave, Various buoy & overtopping devices Offshore Wind, Floating WTG Solar, Utility-scale Photovoltaic arrays Solar (Nevada), Parabolic trough Wind (in OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Alberta to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Montana to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Wyoming to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Total PS Option PS-1 PS-2 PS-3 PS-4 PS-5 PS-6 PS-7 PS-8 PS-9 PS-10 PS-11 PS-12 PS-13 PS-14 PS-15 PS-16 PS-17 PS-18 2022 0.22 NA NA 0.00 0.07 NA NA 0.48 NA 0.19 NA NA 0.02 NA NA NA NA NA 0.98 94 2035 0.14 NA 0.01 -0.05 0.05 0.14 0.11 0.31 NA 0.12 NA 0.51 0.01 NA 0.09 NA NA NA 1.44 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.58 2.64 NA NA NA 0.09 -0.01 -0.60 0.45 1.19 NA 1.47 NA 0.62 1.49 5.95 NA NA 0.50 2.29 NA NA NA 5.52 0.06 0.27 NA NA NA 0.98 NA NA NA NA NA NA 3.07 20.42 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 $25 $98 NA NA NA $4 $2 $16 $27 $52 NA $90 NA $79 $56 $173 NA NA $14 $55 NA NA NA $315 $17 $68 NA NA NA $56 NA NA NA NA NA NA $1,00 $142 6 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 201320132022 2035 $44 $37 NA NA NA $49 -$319 -$27 $59 $43 NA $61 NA $127 $38 $29 NA NA $29 $24 NA NA NA $57 $293 $253 NA NA NA $57 NA NA NA NA NA NA $46 $49 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo f) Moderate Increase in Federal Action plus more State Action, integrated with Standard RPS (point-of-combustion) GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Hydropower, New projects Hydropower, Conventional hydro upgrades in OR Wastewater treatment gas, Reciprocating engines Landfill gas, Reciprocating engine Animal manure, Reciprocating engine Woody residues, Steam-electric - brownfield Woody residues, Steam-electric - greenfield Geothermal, Binary hydrothermal Geothermal, Enhanced Geothermal Tidal current, Water current turbines Wave, Various buoy & overtopping devices Offshore Wind, Floating WTG Solar, Utility-scale Photovoltaic arrays Solar (Nevada), Parabolic trough Wind (in OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Alberta to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Montana to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Wyoming to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Total PS Option PS-1 PS-2 PS-3 PS-4 PS-5 PS-6 PS-7 PS-8 PS-9 PS-10 PS-11 PS-12 PS-13 PS-14 PS-15 PS-16 PS-17 PS-18 2022 0.02 NA NA 0.00 0.02 NA NA 0.51 NA 0.20 NA NA 0.02 NA NA NA NA NA 0.78 95 2035 0.17 NA 0.01 -0.04 0.06 0.18 0.05 0.36 NA 0.14 NA 0.24 0.02 NA NA NA NA NA 1.19 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.06 1.88 NA NA NA 0.10 0.01 -0.45 0.07 0.76 NA 1.81 NA 0.49 1.29 6.37 NA NA 0.52 2.55 NA NA NA 2.53 0.06 0.30 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 2.00 16.34 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 $3 $66 NA NA NA $4 $4 $19 $4 $27 NA $93 NA $55 $45 $174 NA NA $16 $62 NA NA NA $129 $17 $69 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA $89 $698 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 201320132022 2035 $45 $35 NA NA NA $43 $341 -$43 $56 $35 NA $51 NA $112 $35 $27 NA NA $31 $24 NA NA NA $51 $286 $230 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA $44 $43 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo g) Modest Effort, Continued State and Federal Policies, integrated with Aggressive RPS (point-of-combustion) GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Hydropower, New projects Hydropower, Conventional hydro upgrades in OR Wastewater treatment gas, Reciprocating engines Landfill gas, Reciprocating engine Animal manure, Reciprocating engine Woody residues, Steam-electric - brownfield Woody residues, Steam-electric - greenfield Geothermal, Binary hydrothermal Geothermal, Enhanced Geothermal Tidal current, Water current turbines Wave, Various buoy & overtopping devices Offshore Wind, Floating WTG Solar, Utility-scale Photovoltaic arrays Solar (Nevada), Parabolic trough Wind (in OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Alberta to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Montana to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Wyoming to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Total PS Option PS-1 PS-2 PS-3 PS-4 PS-5 PS-6 PS-7 PS-8 PS-9 PS-10 PS-11 PS-12 PS-13 PS-14 PS-15 PS-16 PS-17 PS-18 2022 0.22 NA 0.01 -0.01 0.08 0.25 0.27 0.47 NA 0.19 NA 0.16 0.02 NA 0.14 NA NA NA 1.80 96 2035 0.13 0.03 0.01 -0.06 0.05 0.12 0.13 0.28 NA 0.11 NA 0.46 0.01 NA 0.58 0.39 0.10 NA 2.33 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.56 2.50 NA 0.30 0.08 0.20 -0.23 -0.87 0.54 1.26 1.60 3.52 1.73 3.81 1.37 5.54 NA NA 0.49 2.16 NA NA 0.41 5.86 0.06 0.25 NA NA 0.94 7.60 NA 2.35 NA 1.07 NA NA 7.54 35.53 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 $29 $106 NA $72 $7 $12 $30 $49 $35 $62 $146 $263 $309 $584 $56 $183 NA NA $17 $62 NA NA $29 $374 $18 $69 NA NA $85 $506 NA $248 NA $135 NA NA $2,72 $759 5 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 201320132022 2035 $51 $43 NA $241 $79 $62 -$128 -$56 $64 $49 $91 $75 $179 $153 $41 $33 NA NA $36 $29 NA NA $72 $64 $305 $271 NA NA $90 $67 NA $106 NA $126 NA NA $101 $77 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo h) Moderate Increase in Federal Action, integrated with Aggressive RPS (point-of-combustion) GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Hydropower, New projects Hydropower, Conventional hydro upgrades in OR Wastewater treatment gas, Reciprocating engines Landfill gas, Reciprocating engine Animal manure, Reciprocating engine Woody residues, Steam-electric - brownfield Woody residues, Steam-electric - greenfield Geothermal, Binary hydrothermal Geothermal, Enhanced Geothermal Tidal current, Water current turbines Wave, Various buoy & overtopping devices Offshore Wind, Floating WTG Solar, Utility-scale Photovoltaic arrays Solar (Nevada), Parabolic trough Wind (in OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Alberta to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Montana to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Wyoming to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Total PS Option PS-1 PS-2 PS-3 PS-4 PS-5 PS-6 PS-7 PS-8 PS-9 PS-10 PS-11 PS-12 PS-13 PS-14 PS-15 PS-16 PS-17 PS-18 2022 0.13 NA 0.01 -0.01 0.08 0.26 0.28 0.48 NA 0.19 NA 0.16 0.02 NA 0.14 NA NA NA 1.76 97 2035 0.13 NA 0.01 -0.06 0.05 0.12 0.13 0.28 NA 0.11 NA 0.47 0.01 NA 0.58 0.20 NA NA 2.02 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.34 2.10 NA NA 0.09 0.20 -0.22 -0.83 0.55 1.28 1.64 3.62 1.77 3.92 1.24 5.50 NA NA 0.50 2.20 NA NA 0.41 5.97 0.06 0.26 NA NA 0.96 7.73 NA 1.39 NA NA NA NA 7.35 33.36 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 $18 $90 NA NA $7 $13 $32 $52 $36 $63 $151 $269 $314 $591 $51 $180 NA NA $18 $64 NA NA $30 $375 $18 $69 NA NA $87 $508 NA $148 NA NA NA NA $2,42 $761 2 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 201320132022 2035 $52 $43 NA NA $80 $62 -$147 -$62 $65 $49 $92 $74 $177 $151 $41 $33 NA NA $37 $29 NA NA $72 $63 $302 $267 NA NA $90 $66 NA $106 NA NA NA NA $104 $73 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo i) Moderate Increase in Federal Action plus more State Action, integrated with Aggressive RPS (point-of-combustion) GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Hydropower, New projects Hydropower, Conventional hydro upgrades in OR Wastewater treatment gas, Reciprocating engines Landfill gas, Reciprocating engine Animal manure, Reciprocating engine Woody residues, Steam-electric - brownfield Woody residues, Steam-electric - greenfield Geothermal, Binary hydrothermal Geothermal, Enhanced Geothermal Tidal current, Water current turbines Wave, Various buoy & overtopping devices Offshore Wind, Floating WTG Solar, Utility-scale Photovoltaic arrays Solar (Nevada), Parabolic trough Wind (in OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Alberta to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Montana to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Wyoming to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Total PS Option PS-1 PS-2 PS-3 PS-4 PS-5 PS-6 PS-7 PS-8 PS-9 PS-10 PS-11 PS-12 PS-13 PS-14 PS-15 PS-16 PS-17 PS-18 2022 0.02 NA 0.01 -0.01 0.08 0.26 0.21 0.48 NA 0.12 NA NA 0.02 NA 0.14 NA NA NA 1.34 98 2035 0.15 NA 0.01 -0.05 0.06 0.16 0.17 0.33 NA 0.13 NA 0.55 0.02 NA 0.20 0.12 NA NA 1.85 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.06 1.74 NA NA 0.09 0.22 -0.19 -0.69 0.57 1.38 1.70 4.00 1.38 3.68 1.22 5.94 NA NA 0.29 1.99 NA NA NA 5.86 0.06 0.28 NA NA 0.99 3.43 NA 1.24 NA NA NA NA 6.17 29.05 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 $3 $73 NA NA $7 $13 $34 $57 $37 $67 $156 $283 $240 $512 $45 $187 NA NA $10 $57 NA NA NA $349 $17 $70 NA NA $89 $227 NA $125 NA NA NA NA $2,02 $637 0 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 201320132022 2035 $48 $42 NA NA $80 $61 -$176 -$83 $65 $49 $91 $71 $173 $139 $37 $31 NA NA $32 $29 NA NA NA $60 $302 $248 NA NA $90 $66 NA $101 NA NA NA NA $103 $70 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo Annex 8b: Tabular results for benchmark & integration scenarios, Power supply measures only (using full fuel cycle CO2e emission factors) a) Overall total results (full fuel cycle) GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 201320132022 2035 PS Option 2022 2035 Standard RPS All 1.50 2.65 5.37 34.91 $279 $1,777 $52 $51 Aggressive RPS All 2.44 3.57 9.76 52.18 $997 $3,805 $102 $73 All 1.20 1.95 4.14 27.38 $171 $1,204 $41 $44 All 1.15 1.75 3.66 24.84 $142 $1,006 $39 $41 All 0.91 1.43 2.39 19.58 $89 $698 $37 $36 All 2.00 2.93 8.34 42.69 $759 $2,725 $91 $64 All 1.96 2.52 8.11 39.83 $761 $2,422 $94 $61 All 1.48 2.26 6.80 34.27 $637 $2,020 $94 $59 Option description Modest Effort, Continued State and Federal Policies, integrated with Standard RPS Moderate Increase in Federal Action, integrated with Standard RPS Moderate Increase in Federal Action plus more State Action, integrated with Standard RPS Modest Effort, Continued State and Federal Policies, integrated with Aggressive RPS Moderate Increase in Federal Action, integrated with Aggressive RPS Moderate Increase in Federal Action plus more State Action, integrated with Aggressive RPS 99 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo b) Standard RPS (full fuel cycle) GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Hydropower, New projects Hydropower, Conventional hydro upgrades in OR Wastewater treatment gas, Reciprocating engines Landfill gas, Reciprocating engine Animal manure, Reciprocating engine Woody residues, Steam-electric - brownfield Woody residues, Steam-electric - greenfield Geothermal, Binary hydrothermal Geothermal, Enhanced Geothermal Tidal current, Water current turbines Wave, Various buoy & overtopping devices Offshore Wind, Floating WTG Solar, Utility-scale Photovoltaic arrays Solar (Nevada), Parabolic trough Wind (in OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Alberta to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Montana to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Wyoming to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Total PS Option PS-1 PS-2 PS-3 PS-4 PS-5 PS-6 PS-7 PS-8 PS-9 PS-10 PS-11 PS-12 PS-13 PS-14 PS-15 PS-16 PS-17 PS-18 2022 0.26 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.10 0.13 0.00 0.56 0.00 0.22 0.00 0.19 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.50 100 2035 0.17 0.00 0.01 -0.04 0.06 0.10 0.11 0.36 0.00 0.14 0.00 0.60 0.02 0.00 0.74 0.38 0.00 0.00 2.65 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.70 3.15 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.18 0.04 -0.30 0.76 1.66 0.53 2.15 0.00 1.24 2.13 7.42 0.00 0.00 0.60 2.72 0.00 0.00 0.50 7.59 0.07 0.32 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.87 0.00 1.91 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.37 34.91 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 $30 $106 $0 $0 $2 $8 $21 $39 $39 $66 $43 $153 $0 $220 $79 $204 $0 $0 $18 $62 $0 $0 $30 $370 $18 $69 $0 $0 $0 $324 $0 $156 $0 $0 $0 $0 $1,77 $279 7 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 201320132022 2035 $42 $34 NA NA $51 $41 $518 -$130 $52 $40 $81 $71 NA $178 $37 $27 NA NA $30 $23 NA NA $59 $49 $248 $215 NA NA NA $47 NA $82 NA NA NA NA $52 $51 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo c) Aggressive RPS (full fuel cycle) GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Hydropower, New projects Hydropower, Conventional hydro upgrades in OR Wastewater treatment gas, Reciprocating engines Landfill gas, Reciprocating engine Animal manure, Reciprocating engine Woody residues, Steam-electric - brownfield Woody residues, Steam-electric - greenfield Geothermal, Binary hydrothermal Geothermal, Enhanced Geothermal Tidal current, Water current turbines Wave, Various buoy & overtopping devices Offshore Wind, Floating WTG Solar, Utility-scale Photovoltaic arrays Solar (Nevada), Parabolic trough Wind (in OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Alberta to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Montana to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Wyoming to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Total PS Option PS-1 PS-2 PS-3 PS-4 PS-5 PS-6 PS-7 PS-8 PS-9 PS-10 PS-11 PS-12 PS-13 PS-14 PS-15 PS-16 PS-17 PS-18 2022 0.25 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.09 0.22 0.24 0.53 0.00 0.21 0.00 0.35 0.03 0.00 0.32 0.19 0.00 0.00 2.44 101 2035 0.16 0.03 0.01 -0.04 0.06 0.09 0.09 0.34 0.00 0.14 0.00 0.56 0.02 0.00 0.70 0.83 0.59 0.00 3.57 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.64 2.97 0.00 0.37 0.10 0.23 -0.11 -0.52 0.62 1.48 1.34 2.91 1.45 3.15 1.70 6.73 0.00 0.00 0.55 2.57 0.00 0.00 0.64 7.99 0.07 0.30 0.00 0.00 1.49 10.06 1.28 10.55 0.00 3.38 0.00 0.00 9.76 52.18 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 $29 $110 $0 $72 $7 $13 $33 $54 $36 $65 $153 $274 $317 $596 $64 $198 $0 $0 $18 $65 $0 $0 $39 $414 $18 $70 $0 $0 $114 $556 $170 $1,001 $0 $318 $0 $0 $3,80 $997 5 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 201320132022 2035 $46 $37 NA $195 $72 $55 -$297 -$102 $58 $44 $114 $94 $219 $190 $38 $29 NA NA $32 $25 NA NA $61 $52 $271 $229 NA NA $77 $55 $133 $95 NA $94 NA NA $102 $73 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo d) Modest Effort, Continued State and Federal Policies, integrated with Standard RPS (full fuel cycle) GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Hydropower, New projects Hydropower, Conventional hydro upgrades in OR Wastewater treatment gas, Reciprocating engines Landfill gas, Reciprocating engine Animal manure, Reciprocating engine Woody residues, Steam-electric - brownfield Woody residues, Steam-electric - greenfield Geothermal, Binary hydrothermal Geothermal, Enhanced Geothermal Tidal current, Water current turbines Wave, Various buoy & overtopping devices Offshore Wind, Floating WTG Solar, Utility-scale Photovoltaic arrays Solar (Nevada), Parabolic trough Wind (in OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Alberta to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Montana to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Wyoming to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Total PS Option PS-1 PS-2 PS-3 PS-4 PS-5 PS-6 PS-7 PS-8 PS-9 PS-10 PS-11 PS-12 PS-13 PS-14 PS-15 PS-16 PS-17 PS-18 2022 0.26 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.10 0.03 0.00 0.56 0.00 0.22 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.20 102 2035 0.17 0.00 0.01 -0.03 0.06 0.11 0.12 0.38 0.00 0.15 0.00 0.63 0.02 0.00 0.33 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.95 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.70 3.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.11 0.00 -0.31 0.72 1.67 0.09 1.55 0.00 1.33 1.76 7.30 0.00 0.00 0.80 3.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.99 0.07 0.33 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.14 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.14 27.38 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 $26 $99 $0 $0 $0 $4 $5 $20 $36 $62 $6 $101 $0 $204 $56 $174 $0 $0 $25 $66 $0 $0 $0 $315 $17 $68 $0 $0 $0 $91 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $1,20 $171 4 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 201320132022 2035 $38 $30 NA NA NA $38 $1,422 -$66 $50 $37 $66 $65 NA $154 $32 $24 NA NA $31 $22 NA NA NA $45 $244 $206 NA NA NA $42 NA NA NA NA NA NA $41 $44 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo e) Moderate Increase in Federal Action, integrated with Standard RPS (full fuel cycle) GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Hydropower, New projects Hydropower, Conventional hydro upgrades in OR Wastewater treatment gas, Reciprocating engines Landfill gas, Reciprocating engine Animal manure, Reciprocating engine Woody residues, Steam-electric - brownfield Woody residues, Steam-electric - greenfield Geothermal, Binary hydrothermal Geothermal, Enhanced Geothermal Tidal current, Water current turbines Wave, Various buoy & overtopping devices Offshore Wind, Floating WTG Solar, Utility-scale Photovoltaic arrays Solar (Nevada), Parabolic trough Wind (in OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Alberta to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Montana to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Wyoming to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Total PS Option PS-1 PS-2 PS-3 PS-4 PS-5 PS-6 PS-7 PS-8 PS-9 PS-10 PS-11 PS-12 PS-13 PS-14 PS-15 PS-16 PS-17 PS-18 2022 0.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.56 0.00 0.22 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.15 103 2035 0.18 0.00 0.01 -0.03 0.07 0.12 0.10 0.38 0.00 0.15 0.00 0.64 0.02 0.00 0.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.75 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.68 3.23 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.11 0.01 -0.35 0.54 1.45 0.00 1.28 0.00 0.54 1.76 7.26 0.00 0.00 0.59 2.79 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.97 0.07 0.33 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.24 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.66 24.84 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 $25 $98 $0 $0 $0 $4 $2 $16 $27 $52 $0 $90 $0 $79 $56 $173 $0 $0 $14 $55 $0 $0 $0 $315 $17 $68 $0 $0 $0 $56 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $1,00 $142 6 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 201320132022 2035 $37 $30 NA NA NA $38 $335 -$47 $50 $36 NA $70 NA $147 $32 $24 NA NA $24 $20 NA NA NA $45 $247 $207 NA NA NA $45 NA NA NA NA NA NA $39 $41 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo f) Moderate Increase in Federal Action plus more State Action, integrated with Standard RPS (full fuel cycle) GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Hydropower, New projects Hydropower, Conventional hydro upgrades in OR Wastewater treatment gas, Reciprocating engines Landfill gas, Reciprocating engine Animal manure, Reciprocating engine Woody residues, Steam-electric - brownfield Woody residues, Steam-electric - greenfield Geothermal, Binary hydrothermal Geothermal, Enhanced Geothermal Tidal current, Water current turbines Wave, Various buoy & overtopping devices Offshore Wind, Floating WTG Solar, Utility-scale Photovoltaic arrays Solar (Nevada), Parabolic trough Wind (in OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Alberta to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Montana to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Wyoming to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Total PS Option PS-1 PS-2 PS-3 PS-4 PS-5 PS-6 PS-7 PS-8 PS-9 PS-10 PS-11 PS-12 PS-13 PS-14 PS-15 PS-16 PS-17 PS-18 2022 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.59 0.00 0.24 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.91 104 2035 0.21 0.00 0.01 -0.02 0.08 0.16 0.04 0.45 0.00 0.18 0.00 0.30 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.43 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.07 2.32 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.03 -0.19 0.08 0.94 0.00 1.64 0.00 0.44 1.53 7.70 0.00 0.00 0.61 3.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.15 0.07 0.36 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.39 19.58 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 $3 $66 $0 $0 $0 $4 $4 $19 $4 $27 $0 $93 $0 $55 $45 $174 $0 $0 $16 $62 $0 $0 $0 $129 $17 $69 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $89 $698 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 201320132022 2035 $38 $28 NA NA NA $35 $146 -$103 $47 $28 NA $57 NA $124 $29 $23 NA NA $26 $20 NA NA NA $41 $241 $190 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA $37 $36 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo g) Modest Effort, Continued State and Federal Policies, integrated with Aggressive RPS (full fuel cycle) GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Hydropower, New projects Hydropower, Conventional hydro upgrades in OR Wastewater treatment gas, Reciprocating engines Landfill gas, Reciprocating engine Animal manure, Reciprocating engine Woody residues, Steam-electric - brownfield Woody residues, Steam-electric - greenfield Geothermal, Binary hydrothermal Geothermal, Enhanced Geothermal Tidal current, Water current turbines Wave, Various buoy & overtopping devices Offshore Wind, Floating WTG Solar, Utility-scale Photovoltaic arrays Solar (Nevada), Parabolic trough Wind (in OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Alberta to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Montana to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Wyoming to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Total PS Option PS-1 PS-2 PS-3 PS-4 PS-5 PS-6 PS-7 PS-8 PS-9 PS-10 PS-11 PS-12 PS-13 PS-14 PS-15 PS-16 PS-17 PS-18 2022 0.25 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.09 0.23 0.25 0.55 0.00 0.22 0.00 0.18 0.03 0.00 0.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.00 105 2035 0.17 0.03 0.01 -0.04 0.06 0.10 0.11 0.36 0.00 0.14 0.00 0.60 0.02 0.00 0.74 0.50 0.13 0.00 2.93 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.68 3.08 0.00 0.38 0.10 0.24 -0.06 -0.43 0.66 1.55 1.47 3.15 1.59 3.41 1.64 6.84 0.00 0.00 0.59 2.67 0.00 0.00 0.49 7.45 0.07 0.31 0.00 0.00 1.13 9.64 0.00 3.02 0.00 1.38 0.00 0.00 8.34 42.69 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 $29 $106 $0 $72 $7 $12 $30 $49 $35 $62 $146 $263 $309 $584 $56 $183 $0 $0 $17 $62 $0 $0 $29 $374 $18 $69 $0 $0 $85 $506 $0 $248 $0 $135 $0 $0 $2,72 $759 5 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 201320132022 2035 $42 $34 NA $188 $65 $51 -$492 -$114 $53 $40 $99 $83 $195 $171 $34 $27 NA NA $30 $23 NA NA $60 $50 $255 $220 NA NA $75 $52 NA $82 NA $98 NA NA $91 $64 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo h) Moderate Increase in Federal Action, integrated with Aggressive RPS (full fuel cycle) GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Hydropower, New projects Hydropower, Conventional hydro upgrades in OR Wastewater treatment gas, Reciprocating engines Landfill gas, Reciprocating engine Animal manure, Reciprocating engine Woody residues, Steam-electric - brownfield Woody residues, Steam-electric - greenfield Geothermal, Binary hydrothermal Geothermal, Enhanced Geothermal Tidal current, Water current turbines Wave, Various buoy & overtopping devices Offshore Wind, Floating WTG Solar, Utility-scale Photovoltaic arrays Solar (Nevada), Parabolic trough Wind (in OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Alberta to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Montana to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Wyoming to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Total PS Option PS-1 PS-2 PS-3 PS-4 PS-5 PS-6 PS-7 PS-8 PS-9 PS-10 PS-11 PS-12 PS-13 PS-14 PS-15 PS-16 PS-17 PS-18 2022 0.16 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.10 0.24 0.26 0.56 0.00 0.23 0.00 0.19 0.03 0.00 0.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.96 106 2035 0.17 0.00 0.01 -0.04 0.06 0.10 0.11 0.36 0.00 0.14 0.00 0.60 0.02 0.00 0.74 0.25 0.00 0.00 2.52 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.41 2.62 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.25 -0.04 -0.38 0.67 1.58 1.52 3.27 1.64 3.54 1.49 6.79 0.00 0.00 0.60 2.72 0.00 0.00 0.50 7.56 0.07 0.32 0.00 0.00 1.16 9.79 0.00 1.78 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.11 39.83 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 $18 $90 $0 $0 $7 $13 $32 $52 $36 $63 $151 $269 $314 $591 $51 $180 $0 $0 $18 $64 $0 $0 $30 $375 $18 $69 $0 $0 $87 $508 $0 $148 $0 $0 $0 $0 $2,42 $761 2 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 201320132022 2035 $43 $34 NA NA $66 $51 -$775 -$135 $54 $40 $99 $82 $191 $167 $34 $27 NA NA $31 $24 NA NA $60 $50 $252 $216 NA NA $75 $52 NA $83 NA NA NA NA $94 $61 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo i) Moderate Increase in Federal Action plus more State Action, integrated with Aggressive RPS (full fuel cycle) GHG reductions (million tCO2e) Option description Hydropower, New projects Hydropower, Conventional hydro upgrades in OR Wastewater treatment gas, Reciprocating engines Landfill gas, Reciprocating engine Animal manure, Reciprocating engine Woody residues, Steam-electric - brownfield Woody residues, Steam-electric - greenfield Geothermal, Binary hydrothermal Geothermal, Enhanced Geothermal Tidal current, Water current turbines Wave, Various buoy & overtopping devices Offshore Wind, Floating WTG Solar, Utility-scale Photovoltaic arrays Solar (Nevada), Parabolic trough Wind (in OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Alberta to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Montana to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Wyoming to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Total PS Option PS-1 PS-2 PS-3 PS-4 PS-5 PS-6 PS-7 PS-8 PS-9 PS-10 PS-11 PS-12 PS-13 PS-14 PS-15 PS-16 PS-17 PS-18 2022 0.03 0.00 0.02 0.01 0.10 0.24 0.20 0.56 0.00 0.14 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.48 107 2035 0.19 0.00 0.01 -0.02 0.07 0.14 0.15 0.42 0.00 0.17 0.00 0.70 0.02 0.00 0.25 0.15 0.00 0.00 2.26 Cumulative 2013- 20132022 2035 0.07 2.19 0.00 0.00 0.11 0.26 -0.01 -0.22 0.69 1.68 1.59 3.69 1.29 3.39 1.46 7.27 0.00 0.00 0.35 2.46 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.41 0.07 0.34 0.00 0.00 1.19 4.23 0.00 1.56 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.80 34.27 NPV (million 2010$) 2013- 20132022 2035 $3 $73 $0 $0 $7 $13 $34 $57 $37 $67 $156 $283 $240 $512 $45 $187 $0 $0 $10 $57 $0 $0 $0 $349 $17 $70 $0 $0 $89 $227 $0 $125 $0 $0 $0 $0 $2,02 $637 0 Costeffectiveness ($2010/tCO2e saved) 201320132022 2035 $40 $33 NA NA $66 $50 -$2,803 -$260 $54 $40 $98 $77 $186 $151 $31 $26 NA NA $27 $23 NA NA NA $47 $252 $203 NA NA $75 $54 NA $80 NA NA NA NA $94 $59 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo Annex 9: Tabular summary of least-cost renewable resource expansion plans to meet RPS targets (all benchmark and integration scenarios) a) Standard RPS scenario (GWh) Renewable resource Hydropower, New projects Hydropower, Conventional hydro upgrades in OR Wastewater treatment gas, Reciprocating engines Landfill gas, Reciprocating engine Animal manure, Reciprocating engine Woody residues, Steam-electric - brownfield Woody residues, Steam-electric - greenfield Geothermal, Binary hydrothermal Geothermal, Enhanced Geothermal Tidal current, Water current turbines Wave, Various buoy & overtopping devices Offshore Wind, Floating WTG Solar, Utility-scale Photovoltaic arrays Solar (Nevada), Parabolic trough Wind (in OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Alberta to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Montana to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Wyoming to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Total Option PS-1 PS-2 PS-3 PS-4 PS-5 PS-6 PS-7 PS-8 PS-9 PS-10 PS-11 PS-12 PS-13 PS-14 PS-15 PS-16 PS-17 PS-18 108 2010 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2015 0 0 0 107 162 93 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 362 2020 438 0 25 250 162 370 0 946 0 379 0 315 45 0 0 0 0 0 2,931 2025 438 0 25 250 162 648 701 946 0 379 0 1,577 45 0 1,121 333 0 0 6,624 2030 438 0 25 250 162 648 701 946 0 379 0 1,577 45 0 1,682 333 0 0 7,185 2035 438 0 25 250 162 648 701 946 0 379 0 1,577 45 0 1,962 999 0 0 8,131 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo b) Aggressive RPS scenario (GWh) Renewable resource Hydropower, New projects Hydropower, Conventional hydro upgrades in OR Wastewater treatment gas, Reciprocating engines Landfill gas, Reciprocating engine Animal manure, Reciprocating engine Woody residues, Steam-electric - brownfield Woody residues, Steam-electric - greenfield Geothermal, Binary hydrothermal Geothermal, Enhanced Geothermal Tidal current, Water current turbines Wave, Various buoy & overtopping devices Offshore Wind, Floating WTG Solar, Utility-scale Photovoltaic arrays Solar (Nevada), Parabolic trough Wind (in OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Alberta to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Montana to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Wyoming to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Total Option PS-1 PS-2 PS-3 PS-4 PS-5 PS-6 PS-7 PS-8 PS-9 PS-10 PS-11 PS-12 PS-13 PS-14 PS-15 PS-16 PS-17 PS-18 109 2010 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2015 0 0 25 250 162 648 701 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 280 333 0 0 2,399 2020 438 0 25 250 162 648 701 946 0 379 0 315 45 0 561 333 0 0 4,802 2025 438 92 25 250 162 648 701 946 0 379 0 1,577 45 0 1,962 1,664 333 0 9,222 2030 438 92 25 250 162 648 701 946 0 379 0 1,577 45 0 1,962 2,330 666 0 10,221 2035 438 92 25 250 162 648 701 946 0 379 0 1,577 45 0 1,962 2,330 1,664 0 11,219 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo c) Modest Effort, Continued State and Federal Policies, integrated with Standard RPS scenario (GWh) Renewable resource Hydropower, New projects Hydropower, Conventional hydro upgrades in OR Wastewater treatment gas, Reciprocating engines Landfill gas, Reciprocating engine Animal manure, Reciprocating engine Woody residues, Steam-electric - brownfield Woody residues, Steam-electric - greenfield Geothermal, Binary hydrothermal Geothermal, Enhanced Geothermal Tidal current, Water current turbines Wave, Various buoy & overtopping devices Offshore Wind, Floating WTG Solar, Utility-scale Photovoltaic arrays Solar (Nevada), Parabolic trough Wind (in OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Alberta to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Montana to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Wyoming to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Total Option PS-1 PS-2 PS-3 PS-4 PS-5 PS-6 PS-7 PS-8 PS-9 PS-10 PS-11 PS-12 PS-13 PS-14 PS-15 PS-16 PS-17 PS-18 110 2010 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2015 0 0 0 12 145 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 157 2020 438 0 0 131 162 93 0 946 0 379 0 0 45 0 0 0 0 0 2,193 2025 438 0 25 250 162 648 526 946 0 379 0 1,577 45 0 280 0 0 0 5,275 2030 438 0 25 250 162 648 701 946 0 379 0 1,577 45 0 561 0 0 0 5,731 2035 438 0 25 250 162 648 701 946 0 379 0 1,577 45 0 841 0 0 0 6,011 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo d) Moderate Increase in Federal Action, integrated with Standard RPS scenario (GWh) Renewable resource Hydropower, New projects Hydropower, Conventional hydro upgrades in OR Wastewater treatment gas, Reciprocating engines Landfill gas, Reciprocating engine Animal manure, Reciprocating engine Woody residues, Steam-electric - brownfield Woody residues, Steam-electric - greenfield Geothermal, Binary hydrothermal Geothermal, Enhanced Geothermal Tidal current, Water current turbines Wave, Various buoy & overtopping devices Offshore Wind, Floating WTG Solar, Utility-scale Photovoltaic arrays Solar (Nevada), Parabolic trough Wind (in OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Alberta to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Montana to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Wyoming to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Total Option PS-1 PS-2 PS-3 PS-4 PS-5 PS-6 PS-7 PS-8 PS-9 PS-10 PS-11 PS-12 PS-13 PS-14 PS-15 PS-16 PS-17 PS-18 111 2010 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2015 0 0 0 12 112 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 124 2020 438 0 0 12 117 0 0 946 0 379 0 0 45 0 0 0 0 0 1,937 2025 438 0 25 250 162 648 175 946 0 379 0 1,577 45 0 280 0 0 0 4,925 2030 438 0 25 250 162 648 175 946 0 379 0 1,577 45 0 280 0 0 0 4,925 2035 438 0 25 250 162 648 526 946 0 379 0 1,577 45 0 280 0 0 0 5,275 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo e) Moderate Increase in Federal Action plus more State Action, integrated with Standard RPS scenario (GWh) Renewable resource Hydropower, New projects Hydropower, Conventional hydro upgrades in OR Wastewater treatment gas, Reciprocating engines Landfill gas, Reciprocating engine Animal manure, Reciprocating engine Woody residues, Steam-electric - brownfield Woody residues, Steam-electric - greenfield Geothermal, Binary hydrothermal Geothermal, Enhanced Geothermal Tidal current, Water current turbines Wave, Various buoy & overtopping devices Offshore Wind, Floating WTG Solar, Utility-scale Photovoltaic arrays Solar (Nevada), Parabolic trough Wind (in OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Alberta to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Montana to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Wyoming to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Total Option PS-1 PS-2 PS-3 PS-4 PS-5 PS-6 PS-7 PS-8 PS-9 PS-10 PS-11 PS-12 PS-13 PS-14 PS-15 PS-16 PS-17 PS-18 112 2010 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2015 0 0 0 12 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 2020 44 0 0 24 34 0 0 946 0 379 0 0 45 0 0 0 0 0 1,471 2025 438 0 25 250 162 648 175 946 0 379 0 631 45 0 0 0 0 0 3,699 2030 438 0 25 250 162 648 175 946 0 379 0 631 45 0 0 0 0 0 3,699 2035 438 0 25 250 162 648 175 946 0 379 0 631 45 0 0 0 0 0 3,699 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo f) Modest Effort, Continued State and Federal Policies, integrated with Aggressive RPS scenario (GWh) Renewable resource Hydropower, New projects Hydropower, Conventional hydro upgrades in OR Wastewater treatment gas, Reciprocating engines Landfill gas, Reciprocating engine Animal manure, Reciprocating engine Woody residues, Steam-electric - brownfield Woody residues, Steam-electric - greenfield Geothermal, Binary hydrothermal Geothermal, Enhanced Geothermal Tidal current, Water current turbines Wave, Various buoy & overtopping devices Offshore Wind, Floating WTG Solar, Utility-scale Photovoltaic arrays Solar (Nevada), Parabolic trough Wind (in OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Alberta to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Montana to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Wyoming to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Total Option PS-1 PS-2 PS-3 PS-4 PS-5 PS-6 PS-7 PS-8 PS-9 PS-10 PS-11 PS-12 PS-13 PS-14 PS-15 PS-16 PS-17 PS-18 113 2010 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2015 0 0 25 250 162 648 701 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 280 0 0 0 2,066 2020 438 0 25 250 162 648 701 946 0 379 0 315 45 0 280 0 0 0 4,189 2025 438 92 25 250 162 648 701 946 0 379 0 1,577 45 0 1,962 333 333 0 7,891 2030 438 92 25 250 162 648 701 946 0 379 0 1,577 45 0 1,962 666 333 0 8,224 2035 438 92 25 250 162 648 701 946 0 379 0 1,577 45 0 1,962 1,332 333 0 8,889 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo g) Moderate Increase in Federal Action, integrated with Aggressive RPS scenario (GWh) Renewable resource Hydropower, New projects Hydropower, Conventional hydro upgrades in OR Wastewater treatment gas, Reciprocating engines Landfill gas, Reciprocating engine Animal manure, Reciprocating engine Woody residues, Steam-electric - brownfield Woody residues, Steam-electric - greenfield Geothermal, Binary hydrothermal Geothermal, Enhanced Geothermal Tidal current, Water current turbines Wave, Various buoy & overtopping devices Offshore Wind, Floating WTG Solar, Utility-scale Photovoltaic arrays Solar (Nevada), Parabolic trough Wind (in OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Alberta to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Montana to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Wyoming to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Total Option PS-1 PS-2 PS-3 PS-4 PS-5 PS-6 PS-7 PS-8 PS-9 PS-10 PS-11 PS-12 PS-13 PS-14 PS-15 PS-16 PS-17 PS-18 114 2010 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2015 0 0 25 250 162 648 701 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 280 0 0 0 2,066 2020 263 0 25 250 162 648 701 946 0 379 0 315 45 0 280 0 0 0 4,014 2025 438 0 25 250 162 648 701 946 0 379 0 1,577 45 0 1,962 333 0 0 7,465 2030 438 0 25 250 162 648 701 946 0 379 0 1,577 45 0 1,962 333 0 0 7,465 2035 438 0 25 250 162 648 701 946 0 379 0 1,577 45 0 1,962 666 0 0 7,798 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo h) Moderate Increase in Federal Action plus more State Action, integrated with Aggressive RPS scenario (GWh) Renewable resource Hydropower, New projects Hydropower, Conventional hydro upgrades in OR Wastewater treatment gas, Reciprocating engines Landfill gas, Reciprocating engine Animal manure, Reciprocating engine Woody residues, Steam-electric - brownfield Woody residues, Steam-electric - greenfield Geothermal, Binary hydrothermal Geothermal, Enhanced Geothermal Tidal current, Water current turbines Wave, Various buoy & overtopping devices Offshore Wind, Floating WTG Solar, Utility-scale Photovoltaic arrays Solar (Nevada), Parabolic trough Wind (in OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Alberta to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Montana to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Wind (from Wyoming to OR/WA), Wind turbine generators Total Option PS-1 PS-2 PS-3 PS-4 PS-5 PS-6 PS-7 PS-8 PS-9 PS-10 PS-11 PS-12 PS-13 PS-14 PS-15 PS-16 PS-17 PS-18 115 2010 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2015 0 0 25 250 162 648 526 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 280 0 0 0 1,891 2020 44 0 25 250 162 648 526 946 0 227 0 0 45 0 280 0 0 0 3,153 2025 438 0 25 250 162 648 701 946 0 379 0 1,577 45 0 561 333 0 0 6,064 2030 438 0 25 250 162 648 701 946 0 379 0 1,577 45 0 561 333 0 0 6,064 2035 438 0 25 250 162 648 701 946 0 379 0 1,577 45 0 561 333 0 0 6,064 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo Annex 10: Graphical summary of least-cost renewable resource expansion plans to meet RPS targets (both PS-related benchmark scenarios and all integration scenarios) PS-1: Hydropower, New projects 1 2,500 2 2,000 GWh 6 1,500 7 1,000 8 9 500 10 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 116 2030 2035 11 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo PS-2: Hydropower, Conven onal hydro upgrades in OR 1 2,500 2 2,000 6 7 1,000 8 GWh 1,500 9 500 10 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 117 2030 2035 11 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo PS-3: Wastewater treatment gas, Reciproca ng engines 1 2,500 2 2,000 GWh 6 1,500 7 1,000 8 9 500 10 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 118 2030 2035 11 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo PS-4: Landfill gas, Reciproca ng engine 1 2,500 2 2,000 GWh 6 1,500 7 1,000 8 9 500 10 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 119 2030 2035 11 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo PS-5: Animal manure, Reciproca ng engine 1 2,500 2 2,000 GWh 6 1,500 7 1,000 8 9 500 10 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 120 2030 2035 11 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo PS-6: Woody residues, Steam-electric -lbrownfie d 1 2,500 2 2,000 GWh 6 1,500 7 1,000 8 9 500 10 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 121 2030 2035 11 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo PS-7: Woody residues, Steam-electric -lgreenfie d 1 2,500 2 2,000 GWh 6 1,500 7 1,000 8 9 500 10 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 122 2030 2035 11 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo PS-8: Geothermal, Binary hydrothermal 1 2,500 2 2,000 GWh 6 1,500 7 1,000 8 9 500 10 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 123 2030 2035 11 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo PS-10: Tidal current, Water current turbines 1 2,500 2 2,000 GWh 6 1,500 7 1,000 8 9 500 10 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 124 2030 2035 11 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo PS-11: Wave, Various buoy & overtopping devices 1 2,500 2 2,000 GWh 6 1,500 7 1,000 8 9 500 10 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 125 2030 2035 11 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo PS-12: Offshore Wind, Floa ng WTG 1 2,500 2 2,000 GWh 6 1,500 7 1,000 8 9 500 10 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 126 2030 2035 11 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo PS-13: Solar, U lity-scale Photovoltaic arrays 1 2,500 2 2,000 GWh 6 1,500 7 1,000 8 9 500 10 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 127 2030 2035 11 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo PS-14: Solar (Nevada), Parabolic trough 1 2,500 2 2,000 GWh 6 1,500 7 1,000 8 9 500 10 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 128 2030 2035 11 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo PS-15: Wind (in OR/WA), Wind turbine generators 1 2,500 2 2,000 GWh 6 1,500 7 1,000 8 9 500 10 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 129 2030 2035 11 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo PS-16: Wind (from Alberta to OR/WA), turbine generators 1 2,500 2 2,000 GWh 6 1,500 7 1,000 8 9 500 10 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 130 2030 2035 11 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo PS-17: Wind (from Montana to OR/WA),turbine generators 1 2,500 2 2,000 GWh 6 1,500 7 1,000 8 9 500 10 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 131 2030 2035 11 CCS, January 25, 2014 Oregon Integrated Cost Curve Memo PS-18: Wind (from WY to OR/WA),turbine generators 1 2,500 2 2,000 GWh 6 1,500 7 1,000 8 9 500 10 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 132 2030 2035 11
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