WO 13: California Residential Replacement
Lamp Market Status Report
Energy Division
California Public Utilities Commission
August 4, 2014
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Agenda
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Time
Topic
1:00 PM
Introduction – Energy Division
1:05 – 1:50PM
California Residential
Replacement Lamp Market
Status Report Presentation–
DNV GL
1:50 PM – 2:00PM
Adjourn – Energy Division
Timeline
8/4/2014
Webinar and Report Posted
8/18/2014 Comments due on PDA
9/1/2014
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Final report posted
PDA – Public Document Area
http://www.energydataweb.com/cpuc/
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PDA – Public Document Area
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PDA – Public Document Area
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PDA – Public Document Area
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PDA – Public Document Area
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California Residential Replacement Lamp
Market Status Report
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California Residential Replacement Lamp Market
Status Report: Upstream Lighting Program and
Market Activities in California Through 2013
WO13: Residential Lighting Process Evaluation and Market Characterization
Jenna Canseco, DNV GL
August 4, 2014
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SAFER, SMARTER, GREENER
Overview
 Background and Objectives
 Data Sources
 Report Structure and Contents
 Conclusions
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Report Background and Objectives
 Several work orders (WO) collected data regarding California’s
replacement lamp market and Upstream Lighting Program (ULP)
activities
– WO13: Residential Lighting Process Evaluation and Market Characterization
– WO21: California Lighting and Appliance Saturation Study
– WO28: Residential/Advanced/Upstream Lighting Impact Evaluation
 DNV GL developed the report to provide a status update on the
residential replacement lamp market in California, including supply- and
demand-side market activities through 2013 as well as ULP activities
 Report leverages data collected as part of other work orders and
provides an opportunity to ensure that this valuable information is
shared
– Example of WO28 supplier interview results – market status, ULP influence on
status, market predictions, etc.
 Majority of research for this report was conducted for other purposes
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Data Sources
Data Sources
Data Collection Effort
Source
Timing
n
Residential electric customer phone
surveys
WO28
2012
2013
791
800
Retail store shelf surveys
WO28
2012
2012-13
2013
200
200
201
Shopper intercept surveys
WO28
2012
2013
472
350
In-home lighting inventories
WO21
06/08 study*
2012
2009
1,987
1,223
Supplier phone interviews
WO28
2013
33
Lamp choice model
WO28
-
-
Numerous other data sources
-
Multiple
-
* Impact evaluation of 2006-2008 ULP
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Report Structure
Organization of the Report
1. Introduction
2. Data Sources
3. Market Context
4. Market Supply
5. Market Demand
6. Market Penetration
7. Remaining Installation Potential for Energy-Efficient Lamps
8. Projected Lamp Technology Choices Under Changed Regulatory and Market
Conditions
9. Conclusions
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Report Structure
Organization of the Report
 Report also has six appendices:
– Appendix A: Bibliography
– Appendix B: Shelf Survey Weights
– Appendix C: Additional Data Tables: Shelf Survey Results
– Appendix D: Additional Data Tables: Market Penetration Results
– Appendix E: Additional Data Tables: Remaining Installation Potential for EnergyEfficient Lamps by IOU Service Territory
– Appendix F: Summary of Reviewer Comments and Author Responses
– To be added after comments received on draft report
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Report Structure
Chapter 3: Market Context
 Describes:
– Lamp efficacy regulations
– Lamp quality standards
– California Long-Term Energy Efficiency Strategic Plan
– California IOU residential lighting energy-efficiency programs
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Report Structure
Chapter 4: Market Supply
 Describes:
– Lamp suppliers
– Lamp availability
– Lamp diversity
– Lamp pricing
– Market barriers
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Report Structure
Chapter 5: Market Demand
 Describes:
– Lamp awareness and purchases
– CFL awareness, purchases, storage, and disposal
– Lamp purchasing decisions
– Lamp installation intentions
– Consumer awareness of EISA
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Report Structure
Chapter 6: Market Penetration
 Describes:
– Sockets per household
– Lamp installation
– Lamp storage
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Report Structure
Chapter 7: Remaining Installation Potential for EE Lamps
 Describes:
– Change in remaining potential between 2009 and 2012
– Remaining potential by installation location (2012)
– Remaining potential by control type (2012)
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Report Structure
Chapter 8: Projected Lamp Technology Choices
Under Changed Regulatory and Market Conditions
 Describes the lamp choices consumers would have made in 2012 and 2013 under
different market conditions
 Models 5 different scenarios (each building on those that precede it):
– Baseline (approximate market conditions in 2012-2013)
– Eliminate traditional incandescent A-lamps
– Expected as a result of AB 1109 and EISA
– Eliminate IOU incentives basic spiral CFLs and CFL A-lamps
– Possible given CPUC direction to IOUs
– Decrease LED lamp prices by $5 each
– Decrease LED lamp prices by $10 each
– Market predictions suggest reduced LED lamp prices in the future
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Conclusions
Conclusions
1. CFL installations increased among consumers between 2009 and 2012, but retail
stocking declined—particularly in big box stores—possibly as a result of
decreased ULP support for CFLs between 2006-2008 and 2010-2012.
2. Largely driven by changes in big box stores, the overall quantities of
replacement lamp stock declined in retail stores between 2012 and 2013, but
the diversity of products increased.
3. CFL awareness and purchase rates declined between 2012 and 2013, but
awareness and purchase rates for other lamp technologies—including EISAcompliant halogen lamps and LED lamps—held steady or increased. Several
factors may be driving these trends.
4. California’s LED replacement lamp market was still in its infancy in 2013. Key
market barriers included lamp price, lack of availability, and lack of consumer
familiarity with LED lamps.
5. Overall average LED lamp prices remained stable between 2012 and 2013 in
California retail stores, largely because of a shift away from lamps with the
lowest light output and toward lamps in the middle and higher-brightness
ranges between years. Within each lumen bin except the lowest (<310 lumens),
average LED lamp prices declined.
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Conclusions
Conclusions
6. The effects of EISA and AB 1109 on energy-efficient lamp sales and stocking are
unclear, but the regulations may have contributed to decreased stocking and
sales of CFLs.
7. EISA and AB 1109 drove increases in halogen lamps’ market presence between
2012 and 2013, but halogen lamp installations were still low in 2012.
8. As of 2012, there remained substantial potential for additional energy-efficient
lamp installations among PG&E, SCE, and SDG&E residential electric customers.
9. Of the CFLs and LED lamps purchased in 2012 and 2013, the majority were
acquired to replace inefficient lamp technologies (such as incandescent or
halogen lamps) or to fill empty sockets.
10.The quantity of lamps in storage among PG&E, SCE and SDG&E residential
electric customers averaged roughly 10 lamps per household in 2009 and 2012,
and the share of stored lamps comprised by CFLs versus incandescent lamps
changed little between years.
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Questions?
Jenna Canseco, Principal Consultant
DNV GL – Energy
Oakland, CA
Email: [email protected]
Tel: 510-891-0446 x44121
www.dnvgl.com
SAFER, SMARTER, GREENER
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Adjourn
www.energydataweb.com/cpuc
8/4 Draft report posted on PDA
8/18 Comments due on PDA
Contact: [email protected]
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