Cumulative Impact Monitoring Program
2011/12 Project description summary
Project name: Landscape Scale Flooding in the Great Slave Lake Plain
Program theme: (landscape change, cumulative impacts, thresholds) Cumulative impacts monitoring
and research.
Project keywords and valued components: Valued components are water quantity and quality.
Key words: abrupt ecosystem change, habitat flooding, remote sensing, tree-rings, climatic change,
lake cores, traditional knowledge
Project team/partners:
Terry Armstrong (ENR), Michael Pisaric (Carleton Univ.), Steve Kokelj (AANDC), Wayne Condon
(Aurora College), Sonia Wesche (Univ. Ottawa), Peter de Montigny (Carleton Univ.), Fort
Providence Resource Management Board (FPRMB)
Status: In development / Pending funding / In Progress / Completed
In progress
Location: If research is localized please include lats and longs. Please attach shapefile or
GoogleEarth image, if available. If the study is regional, please use a bounding box if possible.
The study area is the Great Slave Lake Plain region north of Fort Providence.
Brief project description:
- Describe the objectives/goals of the project
- Describe the methodology and sampling techniques used
- Describe how communities and/or partner organizations were or will be involved
- Describe how Traditional Knowledge was or will be involved, if applicable
- Were the objectives of your project achieved?
- The objectives of this project are to (1) examine the change in lake area in this ecoregion, (2)
quantify the type and amount of habitat loss or modification; (3) investigate whether recent
changes are part of a longer-term cycle and evaluate the causes of this change; (4) document
and integrate local and traditional knowledge of physical and biological habitat changes to
land use and wildlife populations; and (5) work with project partners (researchers, land users,
resource managers) to determine the implications of results from 1-4.
- Objective (1) was accomplished using historical Landsat imagery and aerial photographs to
calculate changes in area of sample lakes. Measuring changes in habitats (Objective 2) is
ongoing and will be studied using current satellite imagery. Objective (3) will be
accomplished using climatic records and by collecting tree cores and studying tree growth as
revealed in their growth rings. Objective (4) will be done in collaboration with the community
of Fort Providence and the FPRMB by interviewing and recording land users and elders
willing to share their knowledge of changes in the region. Objective (5) will be done in a
workshop format when results of 1-4 are available.
- Fort Providence community members have been involved in guiding field sampling locations,
supporting and assisting field work. The FPRMB has supported and coordinated this work.
- Objective (1) has been achieved; the remaining objectives are on-going.
Significance of the results (rationale):
- What are the key contributions to cumulative effects monitoring in the NWT?
- What is the relevance to decision-makers?
- Which decision-makers will likely be impacted by / interested in results?
-
What is the relevance to communities?
What are the key contributions to science/our knowledge base of northern environments
What are the project milestones? (including beginning date and anticipated end-date)
In 2010, a study was undertaken to examine lake expansion observed north of Fort
Providence, NWT. Lake level expansion can be driven by changes in climate, however climate data
for this region are limited both temporally and spatially. To better understand the possible climatic
drivers of recent lake expansion in the region, longer climate records are needed. Dendrochronology
(the study of tree rings) is a tool that can be used to develop proxy climate records that extend back in
time before measurements were made using thermometers and precipitation gauges. Our previous
work in the area examined recent lake level fluctuations in the region using tree ring chronologies
developed from five black spruce sites where trees had been impacted by recent lake expansion. A
comparison between the tree growth records and temperature and precipitation records from Fort
Providence and Hay River suggested the growth of trees in this region was not strongly influenced by
either temperature or precipitation but rather a combination of these. Based on these results, the
correlation between tree growth and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), which is a climate
index that incorporates both temperature and precipitation, was examined. Although correlations were
highest between the tree ring chronologies and the PDSI, the climate-growth relationship is
convoluted in recent decades as many of the sampled trees became submerged by rising water levels
and their growth was impacted.
As a result, an additional 14 sites were sampled in summer of 2011, with a minimum of 30
tree cores extracted per site per species. These sites are situated in areas thought to be unaffected by
rising lake levels which, as a result, may provide a more dependable climatic relationship and
strengthen confidence in results. Furthermore, multiple species were sampled (white spruce, tamarack,
jack pine) in order to examine the climate-growth responses from different species. Results are
presently unavailable as analysis of the samples is still being completed. In addition to the tree core
samples, two lake core samples from Caen Lake were also obtained, which will aid in the
understanding of past climates of the region. The lake cores are to be analyzed by a student in the near
future.
Tree ring sampling locations near Fort Providence during the summer of 2011.
Site Code
FP01
Latitude
61°33’01.39” N
Longitude
117°09’15.3” W
Elevation
190
FP02
FP03
FP05
FP06
FP08
FP09
FP10
FP11
61°41’45.3”
61°26’23.0”
61°51’18.0”
62°41’26.0”
62°43’34.1”
61°53’49.7”
61°40’48.0”
61°49’15.5”
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
116°54’56.8”
117°22’24.5”
116°37’12.6”
116°09’51.0”
116°05’53.8”
116°31’38.8”
116°58’41.0”
116°42’43.8”
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
208
160
228
227
248
240
254
227
FP12
FP13
FP14
FP15
FP16
61°43’57.2”
62°08’54.2”
62°02’13.3”
61°37’56.3”
61°32’06.1”
N
N
N
N
N
116°52’27.4” W
116°15’56.0” W
116°18’50.1” W
117°07’12.2” N
117°12’38.7” N
231
220
214
215
194
Sample Type
White spruce,
tamarack
White spruce
White spruce
Jack pine
White spruce
Jack pine
White spruce
White spruce
Jack pine,
White spruce
Jack pine
Jack pine
White spruce
Jack pine
White spruce
Analysis of aerial photographs dating from the late 1947 to 1971 and satellite imagery from 1984 to
2010 for 12 lakes in the study area showed that some had dramatic changes in size over that time,
while others had changed little. Most of the study lakes had flooded large areas in the late 1940’s to
1971, were smaller by 1984 and then increased in area after that time. Some lakes increased to 8 – 10
times their earlier size.
This study’s key contributions to cumulative effects monitoring in the NWT will be baseline data on
range of fluctuations in lake area and associated gain and loss of different wildlife habitats. Our
results will assist in determining long-term objectives and indicators for community-based monitoring
and inform management of the Mackenzie wood bison population, support climate change adaptation
strategies for planning infrastructure (e.g. transportation) and provide the community and traditional
harvesters information for planning adaptation to the changing environment.
Results will be very relevant to communities because they are most directly and closely affected by
regional water level changes. Community decision-makers, infrastructure planners and land and
wildlife managers will be impacted by the results of this project.
The project began with preliminary sampling in 2010. Field sampling sessions were completed in
September 2011 and in March 2012 more field sampling and a community workshop were completed.
Further sampling is planned for fall 2012, winter 2013, and a second community workshop is planned
for winter 2013. Anticipated completion date is 2014.
Key deliverables and reporting: Link to needs of NWT
- Describe how results of the project were reported or will be reported to communities and other
stakeholder groups
The study team hosted a workshop for community members in Fort Providence where results of work
to date were presented, followed by discussion and input on future work from workshop participants.
de Montigny, P., Pisaric, M.J.F., Armstrong, T., Condon, W., van der Wielen, S., Kokelj, S.V. Lake
level fluctuations and its impact on bison habitat: a climate reconstruction of the Fort Providence
region, NWT. 2011 NWT Geoscience Forum, 2011 Nov 15-17. Yellowknife.
de Montigny, P., Pisaric, M.J.F., Armstrong, T., Condon, W., van der Wielen, S., Kokelj, S.V. Lake
level fluctuations and its impact on bison habitat: a climate reconstruction of the Fort Providence
region, NWT. 2012 Ottawa-Carleton Student Northern Research Symposium. University of Ottawa,
Ottawa, Canada.
Published Papers
None to date
Are you willing to be part of GNWT’s ‘ask an expert program’ (Yes / No) *
No
Contact Information
Terry Armstrong
Box 900, Fort Smith NT X0E 0P0. [email protected]
* ENR is developing an on-line resource through which the public can ‘ask an expert’. There
will be a drop-down box of subject areas and you will be asked to identify the subject area within
which you can answer questions. The on-line service will be set-up so that questions posed
within this subject area will be automatically sent to you.