State of the Art
&
Near Term Future
of
Smart Driving Cars
by
Alain L. Kornhauser, Ph.D.
Professor, Operations Research & Financial Engineering
Director, Program in Transportation
Faculty Chair, PAVE (Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering)
Princeton University
Presented at
ITS-NY 2013 Annual Meeting
Saratoga Springs, NY
June 14, 2013
Where Have We Been?
The Automobile’s
1st 125 Years
(1886-2011)
Benz patent 1886 1 Automobile
st
Benz Circa 2011
Deliverd: Enormous Personal Freedom & Mobility
But…Safe Operation Requires Continuous Vigilance
We Love the Freedom & Mobility
But…Continuous Vigilance is an unrealistic requirement for drivers
Txtng while driving is out of control…
TravelTainment Industry Wants Everyone’sAttention
http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/NHTSA_Hendricks2001_UnsafeDrivingActs.pdf
“In 717 out of 723 crashes (99%), a driver behavioral
error caused or contributed to the crash”
In In 717 out of 723 accidents ((99%)
Early Estimate of Motor Vehicle Traffic Fatalities in 2012
Response is Laudable
Kirkland, WA
But Not Likely to be Effective
What About Automation?
Preliminary Statement of Policy Concerning Automated Vehicles
Extending its vehicle safety standards from Crash Mitigation to
Crash Avoidance with Aim at Full Self-Driving Automation
Level 0 – No-Automation. The driver is in complete and sole control of the primary vehicle controls (brake, steering,
throttle, and motive power) at all times, and is solely responsible for monitoring the roadway and for safe operation of all vehicle
controls. Vehicles that have certain driver support/convenience systems but do not have control authority over steering, braking, or
throttle would still be considered “level 0” vehicles. Examples include systems that provide only warnings
• Level 1 – Function-specific Automation: Automation at this level involves one or more specific control
functions; if multiple functions are automated, they operate independently from each other. The driver has overall control, and is
solely responsible for safe operation, the driver. The vehicle’s automated system may assist or augment the driver in operating one of
the primary controls – either steering or braking/throttle controls (but not both).
• Level 2 - Combined Function Automation: Automation of at least two primary control functions designed to
work in unison to relieve the driver of control of those functions. Vehicles at this level of automation can utilize shared authority
when the driver cedes active primary control in certain limited driving situations. The driver is still responsible for monitoring the
roadway and safe operation and is expected to be available for control at all times and on short notice.
• Level 3 - Limited Self-Driving Automation: Vehicles at this level of automation enable the driver to cede full
control of all safety-critical functions under certain traffic or environmental conditions.
• Level 4 - Full Self-Driving Automation: The vehicle is designed to perform all safety-critical driving functions
and monitor roadway conditions for an entire trip.
Preliminary Statement of Policy Concerning Automated Vehicles
The Aim to Full Self-Driving is Laudable;
But, Ironically, it may be
overly ambitious and potentially counter productive
We Like to Drive and Can Be Vigilant
But Preferably only when we want to; Otherwise, Let us “TXT”
Eternal Vigilance should not be the price of Freedom derived from the Automobile
By Focusing on Level 3 (Limited Self-Driving, aka SmartDrivingCar)
NHTSA Can Capture “All” Safety Benefits & Make the Car Even More Desirable
The Jump to Level 4 (Full Self-Driving) Delivers Broad Societal Benefits
Equal Mobility for All (young, old, handicapped, disadvantaged), Elimination of Congestion, Halving of Energy, Pollution
These are NOT NHTSA’s Mission & Shouldn’t be Distracted by that Goal
Where Are We Now?
R&D
Has drive ~ 500,000 miles with “Level 3: Limited Self-Driving Automation”
But…Hardware too expensive and Reliance on 3D Google Maps is “non-elegant”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cdgQpa1pUUE
Where Are We Now?
“Level 4 Full Self-Driving Automation”
Operational in Exclusive
Environments
APM
Automated People Movers
Now exist in essentially every Major Airport
and a growing number of Driverless Metros
Beijing
Milan
Paris
Morgantown 1975
Today…
Remains a critical mobility system & planning an expansion
> 25M Driverless VMT
Zero serious accidents
And Today…
• Masdar & Heathrow are operational
Video
> 1M Driverless VMT
Zero accidents
Initial Demonstration
of Autonomous Transit
• Autonomous Buses at La Rochelle
(CyberCars/Cybus/INRIA) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=72-PlSFwP5Y
– Simple virtual non-exclusive roadway
• Virtual vehicle-based longitudinal (collision avoidance) and
lateral (lane keeping) systems
This is actually “Level 4 Full Self-Driving Automation”
Very Slow Speed (~ 10 mph); “Limited Pedestrian Environment”
– Driverless Trucks in Australian & Chilean Mines
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s0RCSX95QmE
Where Are We Now?
“Level 0+ Driver Support , but No Automation ”
Operational Bus Transit
Bus 2.0: Initial Demonstration of Transit-based
Driver Assistance (Level 0+ , no control, only warning)
Fleet of 10 Gillig low floor buses
Morning and evening express services
22 mile (one-way) travel distance
Reliable travel times in all weather and traffic conditions
Bus 2.0: Transit-based Driver Assistance
How Do They Do It?
Bus 2.0: Transit-based Driver Assistance
How Do They Do It?
It Just Works!
Where Are We Now?
“Level 2-, Combined Automation with constant vigilance”
Available in ShowRooms for Consumers
BAS-Plus
Active Lane-Keeping Assist (braking not steering  )
Volvo Truck Emergency braking
Intelligent Drive (active steering  )
DOT HS 810 767 Pre-Crash Scenario Typology for Crash Avoidance Research
More on Google: Levandowski Presentation
With Mercedes the Market Leader in “Level 2-” and an incremental
price tag that can be absorbed by a Price Leading Insurance Company,
then other automakers will be enticed to follow which should lead to:
• Viral adoption by the car buying public
• “Moore’s Law type of price/performance improvement
• Market-driven Transition to “Level 2” and “Level 3” at same or even
lower price structure
• Adoption and enhancement rates that are comparable to that
enjoyed by airbags (With likely a comparable hick-up)
What’s Near-term for Transit?
With Mercedes the Market Leader in “Level 2-” and an incremental
price tag that can be absorbed by a Price Leading Insurance Company,
then other automakers will be enticed to follow which should lead to:
The World’s Best
Bus Rapid Transit System
• Fact: For over 40 years New Jersey has had the
World’s Best “Bus Rapid Transit” System!
• It Consists of:
• Efficient Boarding/Alighting @ Port Authority Bus Terminal
–
–
223 Departure Gates
Readily Accommodates 700 Buses/hr
The World’s Best
Bus Rapid Transit System
• Fact: For over 40 years New Jersey has had the
World’s Best “Bus Rapid Transit” System!
• It Consists of:
• Efficient Boarding/Alighting @ PA Bus Terminal
• Direct Access/Egress to Exclusive Lanes in the Lincoln
Tunnel
• 3+ HOV Lanes on the NJ Turnpike that are,
by default, essentially bus-only
• Many Strategically Located Park&Ride Lots
The World’s Best
Bus Rapid Transit System
• Pieces are Connected by:
•
“495-viaduct” Counter-flow Exclusive Bus Lane
(XBL)
–
–
Lane Segregation is by Removable Plastic Peg
Yet exceedingly Safe
» 3 (?) accidents in 41 years, no fatalities.
A Perfect Storm Opportunity
•
•
•
•
PABT in desperate need of “rehabilitation”
XBL at capacity
“Helix” due for “rehabilitation”
Desperately need increased late afternoon inbound capacity for busses
• New bus procurement cycle begins in 2 years
• Test facility available @ Ft. Monmouth
Improving The World’s Best
Bus Rapid Transit System
• add Intelligent Cruise Control with Lane Assist
to the 3,000 buses…
• e.g. Daimler Benz Distronic Plus with Traffic Jam Assist
• even at an incremental $75,000/bus this is just $200M
• Could achieve sustained 3.0 second headways
– Increases practical throughput by 50%
• from 700 -> 1,000 buses/hr; 35,000 -> 50,000 pax/hr
– Increased passenger capacity comparable to what
would have been provided by $10B ARC rail tunnel
• Institutionally manageable:
– All Express Buses are acquired according to NJT Specs.
– Facilities (XBL, LT, PABT) are controlled by PANY&NJT
• Ideal test facility available:
– Ft. Monmouth
Improving The World’s Best
Bus Rapid Transit System
•
Concept Not New:
• Concept Makes Even More Sense Now!
Near-term Opportunity for a Substantive
Extension of Autonomous Transit
• Specific: General Mobility for Fort Monmouth Redevelopment
– Currently: Decommissioned Ft. Monmouth is vacant .
•
•
•
•
•
Ft. Monmouth Economic Revitalization Authority (FMERA) is redeveloping the 3 sq. mile “city”
Focus is on attracting high-tech industry
The “Fort” needs a mobility system.
FMEDA is receptive to incorporating an innovative mobility system
Because it is being redeveloped as a “new town” it can accommodate itself to be an ideal site for testing
more advanced driverless systems.
Where might We End Up?
Discussion!
Thank You
[email protected]
www.SmartDrivingCar.com
Assorted Videos of Self-Driving Cars
http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Videos/1
_FrozenLakeVID_onlySteeringWoIndividualWheelBraking.mp4
http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Videos/2
_FrozenLakeVID_onlySteeringWoIndividualWheelBraking.mp4
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0D
0ZN2tPihQ&feature=player_embedded
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MZ
3s_cdk_yE&feature=player_embedded
http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Videos/3
_FrozenLakeVID_onlySteeringWoIndividualWheelBraking.mp4
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rid
S396W2BY&feature=player_detailpage
http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Videos/4
_FrozenLakeVID_onlySteeringWoIndividualWheelBraking.mp4
http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/Sma
rtDrivingCars/Videos/VolvoPlatooningC
oncept.wmv