Organic Produce
Data Ending 28th February 16
© Kantar Worldpanel
SUMMARY
In the latest quarter Organic Produce has reached its highest level in both Value and
Volume, following an overall strong 2015.
During 2015 Organic Produce has consistently overperformed vs. Non-Organic,
although both have returned to growth after a poor 2014.
Organic Produce is worth £213m and has grown 15.6% over the past year
driven by shoppers buying more per trip & buying more often.
Repeat shoppers are driving the market, and existing shoppers have spent
more this year on Organic Produce than last year.
Organic Produce Shoppers are more likely to be older & affluent. They try to lead
a healthy lifestyle & are valuable shoppers spending £302 a year on Produce.
Bananas are the best selling Organic Produce item worth £29m, whilst Kale is the best
performing over the past year.
2
© Kantar Worldpanel
How has Organic Produce changed in value and volume over time?
In the latest 12 weeks Organic Produce has reached its highest Value & Volume level over
the past 5 years, following strong growth throughout 2015.
60000
Value (£000s)
50000
Volume (000kgs)
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
M J J A S O N D J F MA AM J J A S O N D J F MMAM J J A S O N D J F MMAM J J A S O N D J F MMAM J J A S O N D J J F
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
12 w/e 28th February 2016
© Kantar Worldpanel
How has Organic Produce performed vs. Non-Organic over time?
Following a struggling performance for Total Produce in 2014, both Organic & Non-Organic
returned to growth in 2015. Organic Produce far outperforms its counterpart throughout
2015 into 2016 in both value and volume.
25.0%
YoY %
Organic Value YoY%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
Organic Volume YoY%
5.0%
0.0%
Non-Organic
Volume YoY%
-5.0%
-10.0%
Non-Organic
Value YoY%
-15.0%
-20.0%
M J J A S O N D J F MM A M J J A S O N D J F MM A M J J A S O N D J F MM A M J J A S O N D J J F
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
12 w/e 28th February 2016
© Kantar Worldpanel
What has driven Organic Produce over the past year?
A combination of an increased shopper base, with shoppers buying more per trip and returning
to the fixture more often has contributed to 15.6% growth in Organic Produce.
Measure
Spend (£000)
Volume (000 kg)
Penetration (%)
Frequency
Spend per Buyer (£)
Volume per Buyer (kg)
Spend per Trip (£)
Volume per Trip (kg)
Price per kg (£)
52 w/e 01 52 w/e 28 Change
Mar 15
Feb 16
(Actual)
184,194
75,705
55.90
6.10
12.37
5.08
2.03
0.83
2.43
212,958
88,387
57.13
6.44
13.86
5.75
2.15
0.89
2.41
+28,764
+12,682
+1.23
+0.34
+1.49
+0.67
+0.13
+0.06
-0.02
Change
(%)
+15.6%
+16.8%
+2.2%
+5.5%
+12.0%
+13.1%
+6.2%
+7.2%
-1.0%
Value up 15.6% worth £28.8m
-5,000
0
5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000
Spend (£000)
£213m (+15.6%)
+£28.8m
Volume (000 kg)
Price per kg (£)
88.4m (+16.8%)
+£30.5m
£2.41 (-1%)
-£1,722k
Volume per Buyer (kg)
Penetration (%)
5.8 kg (+13.1%)
+£24.4m
57.1% (+2.2%)
+£6,127k
Frequency
Volume per Trip (kg)
6.4 trips (+5.5%)
+£10.6m
0.9 kg (+7.2%)
+£13.8m
* Penetration contribution
includes population growth of 1%
52 w/e 28th February 2016
© Kantar Worldpanel
How has the contribution to growth changed over time in Organic Produce
The growth in Organic Produce over the past year has been predominantly driven by existing
shoppers spending more on the category, whilst there have also been some gains from
shopper switching their spend from Non-Organic to Organic Produce. This follows a period of
time where shoppers were dropping Organic from their Produce buying repertoire.
40000
Organic, Rolling Source of Change in Spend (£000s)
30000
20000
10000
0
-10000
-20000
-30000
Total Switching
Shoppers Held
Category Level Changes
Shoppers Won
Category Departures
52 w/e 28th February 2016
© Kantar Worldpanel
What type of Shoppers have driven Organic Produce growth?
The Organic Produce market benefits from repeat shoppers who are engaged with the
category. Very little growth in the latest 52 weeks has come from new shoppers entering the
market.
Organic - Net New/Lost & Repeat Buyers - Contribution to Change
35
30
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
Net New/Lost
Repeat
28 Feb 16
31 Jan 16
03 Jan 16
06 Dec 15
11 Oct 15
08 Nov 15
13 Sep 15
16 Aug 15
19 Jul 15
21 Jun 15
24 May 15
26 Apr 15
29 Mar 15
01 Mar 15
01 Feb 15
04 Jan 15
07 Dec 14
09 Nov 14
12 Oct 14
14 Sep 14
17 Aug 14
20 Jul 14
22 Jun 14
25 May 14
27 Apr 14
30 Mar 14
02 Mar 14
02 Feb 14
05 Jan 14
08 Dec 13
10 Nov 13
13 Oct 13
15 Sep 13
18 Aug 13
21 Jul 13
23 Jun 13
26 May 13
28 Apr 13
-20
31 Mar 13
-15
03 Mar 13
Actual Contribution (000,000s)
25
Total
52 w/e 28th February 2016
© Kantar Worldpanel
So, who are the Organic Produce shoppers?
Organic Produce shoppers are from medium sized, more affluent households and overtrade
strongly in London.
OVER INDEX ON
SOCIAL CLASS
AB (113)
C1 (103)
OVER INDEX ON
1-2 CHILDREN
AT HOME
(101)
Aged 55+
2-4 Member
Households
OVER INDEX IN
LONDON (112)
SOUTH (104)
E.ENGLAND (101)
WALES+W (104)
More Affluent
OVER INDEX ON
2-4 MEMBER
HOUSEHOLDS
(110, 104 & 104)
OVER INDEX
HW AGED
55-64 (101)
65+ (107)
OVER INDEX ON
YOUNG FAMILY 0-4 YEARS
(102)
OLDER DEPENDENTS
(109)
RETIRED
(106)
Total Organic Produce Shopper
Buyer %
*Benchmarked vs. Total
Produce Shoppers
52 w/e 28th February 2016
© Kantar Worldpanel
What is important to Organic Produce Shoppers?
Almost 40%
tend not to
‘work to a strict
budget’
76.7% agree
that they ‘try to
lead a healthy
lifestyle’
41.7%
disagreed with
the statement ‘I
have little time
to myself’
62% consider
themselves ‘a
good cook’
9
1 year continuous panel
52 w/e 28th February
2016
© Kantar Worldpanel
Organic Produce shoppers spend £302 per year on fresh produce…
…that’s £122
more than a non-organic produce
shopper!
10
© Kantar Worldpanel
What are the best selling Organic Produce items?
All of the top 10 best selling items are in growth, apart from mushrooms.
1
£23.5m
£29m
2
+11.8%
+28.8%
3
£20.8m
£12.1m
4
£16.8m
5
+6.2%
+11.0%
+30.3%
11
52 w/e 28th February 2016
© Kantar Worldpanel
What are the best performing Organic Produce items?
Year on Year Value Growth. £1 million minimum.
2)AVOCADO
1)KALE
Up 104%
Up 262.5%
3)LEMON
Up 62.4%
5)DATES
4)ORANGE
Up 49.5%
Up 52.3%
12
52 w/e 28th February 2016
© Kantar Worldpanel
Thank you
For further information please contact:
Lauren Webb
Telephone: +44 (0)208 967 1423
[email protected]
© Kantar Worldpanel