Where are we today in renewable
heating and cooling and what
challenges remain?
Tobias Fleiter
Fraunhofer Institute for
Systems and
Innovation Research
POLICY
CONFERENCE
Background: 2 main studies
Mapping and analyses
of the current and
future heating/cooling
fuel deployment
 EC tender study
accomplished in 2016 (DG
ENER)
 First full end-use energy
balance for EU 28 (+3)
 Reference year 2012
 Ongoing Horizon 2020
project
 Update for the year 2015
 Inclusion of technologies
Total final energy in 2015 (EU28)
Total final energy 2015: ~12,600 TWh
Non-H/C
50%
Heating and
cooling
50%
H&C about 50% of FED
High importance space and
process heating
Space heating
27%
Process
heating
16%
Hot water
4%
Space
cooling
1%
Process
cooling
1%
Other heating
1%
Sector comparison H&C FED in 2015
(EU28)
3000
Space heating
Space cooling
Final energy [TWh]
2500
Process heating
Process cooling
2000
Hot water
Other heating
1500
1000
500
0
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
End-uses by sector:
• Industry: >80%
for process heat
• Residential:
>75% for space
heating
• Tertiary: highest
share of cooling
compared to
other sectors
(~10%)
Residential sector: FED H&C in 2015 by
energy carrier (EU28)
1%
1%
Gas
4%
9%
Biomass
Oil
12%
43%
Electricity
District heating
Coal
14%
Heat pumps
Solar thermal
16%
Types of energy
carriers:
• Fossil: 61%
• Renewables: 17%
• El+DH: 22%
0%
Ger ma ny
France
United Kingdo m
Italy
Pola nd
Spa in
Netherland s
Belg ium
Romania
Cze ch Repub lic
Austria
Swede n
Hunga ry
Finland
Gre ece
Denmark
Ireland
Croatia
Por tug al
Slovak Re public
Bulg aria
Latvia
Lithuan ia
Sloven ia
Esto nia
Luxembou rg
Cyp rus
Malta
100%
90%
70%
500
60%
50%
400
40%
300
30%
200
20%
10%
FED H&C [TWh]
Residential sector: FED H&C in 2015 by
country
700
600
Solar thermal
80%
Oil
Heat pumps
Electricity
District heating
100
Coal
0
Biomass
Total
Huge
diversity
across
countries!
Gas
Max RESshare ~50%
Share of Renewables in H/C over time
(Source: Eurostat SHARES project)
Top 5 countries
60
Shre of RES in total H/C final energy
Sweden
50
Finland
40
Latvia
30
Austria
20
Denmark
10
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
RES H&C share
increasing in
most
countries
EU28:
- 2006: 10%
- 2015: 17%
Residential sector: FED for H&C by
single/multi family houses in 2015 (EU28)
1600
Solar thermal
Oil
1400
Heat pumps
Final energy [TWh]
1200
Gas
1000
Electricity
District heating
800
Coal
600
Biomass
400
200
0
Hot water SFH
Space heating
SFH
Hot water MFH
Space heating
MFH
SFH twice as
important as
multi-family
houses
Residential sector: Share of SFH in total
space heating energy demand (2015)
Importance of SFH
varies heavily by
member state!
Key messages
•
•
H&C is very important with ~50% of EU28 FED
Residential sector still dominated by fossil fuels (EU28, 2015):
–
–
–
•
•
Fossil: 61% (natural gas 43%)
Renewables: 17%
El+DH: 22%
SFH consume twice as much energy as MFH do (EU28)
Huge heterogeneity among countries
However: The local situation is always different 
Contact
Tobias Fleiter
Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and
Innovation Research
Breslauer Str. 48
76139 Karlsruhe, Germany
[email protected]
+49 721 6809-208
Thank you very much for your attention!
•
EC tender study „Mapping and analyses of the current and future
heating/cooling fuel deployment “
Download reports and data sheets:
http://www.isi.fraunhofer.de/isi-de/x/projekte/mapping-heating_331945.php
•
Heat Roadmap Europe IV (Horizon 2020, ongoing)
Download Brochure:
http://heatroadmap.eu/publications.php
Report to follow soon
Join #EUSEW17
www.eusew.eu
‘EU Sustainable Energy Week’
@euenergyweek & #EUSEW17
‘EU Sustainable Energy Week’
One minute on barriers...
Examplary use case: choice of heating system at the time of renewal:
Use case
Target
group
Barriers
Policy recommendations
Single-family homes:

Mandatory building energy certificates that
show-case options at the latest 15 years after
the latest retrofit of heating system

Introduction of mandatory energy labels for H/C
technologies

Choice of H/C
system at the
time of
necessary (or
before)
renewal
(residential/
nonresidential
buildings)
Private
persons
(i.e.
owners)
Bounded rationality:
replace with the
same system, no
planning /
evaluation of
alternatives (lock-in
effects)
Competition with
other modernization
measures (e.g. new
bathroom)
Split incentives
(landlord-tenant
dilemma)
Understanding barriers requires being very specific:
- What is the „use case“?
- Who makes
the decision?  Implement tax incentives for green savings

- What are other actors and how do they affect the
decision?


Allow to put-through only 50 % of energy costs
to tenants
(e.g. tenancy law)
- Which RES technology? For which
application?

Allow
to
put-through
add-on costs for RES
Housing
Which
country?
heating
systems
(e.g.
tenancy law)
companies

Promote energy service/performance contract
- ..
schemes

Public
bodies
The procurement
routines are still not
up to date regarding
RES H/C

Promote energy service/performance contract
schemes and adjust public tendering rules
accordingly
Residential sector: H&C FED by end-use in
2015
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Space cooling
Other heating
Hot water
Germany
France
Italy
United Kingdom
Poland
Netherlands
Belgium
Spain
Romania
Czech Republic
Austria
Finland
Sweden
Hungary
Denmark
Greece
Ireland
Croatia
Slovak Republic
Bulgaria
Lithuania
Latvia
Slovenia
Estonia
Portugal
Luxembourg
Cyprus
Malta
Space heating
Space heating
dominant in nearly
all countries
Cooling only has
low shares in
southern countries
Hot water is
relatively similar in
all countries