Carbon sequestra-on poten-al of Agroforestry in the Sahel Eike Luedeling Henry Neufeldt Outline •  Agroforesty for carbon sequestra1on •  Parkland Agroforestry in the Sahel •  Poten1al areas for Agroforestry •  Carbon stock in parkland Agroforestry •  Climate change impact on C stocks Agroforestry for carbon sequestra-on Agroforestry – defini-on •  Integra1on of trees or shrubs with crop and/or livestock produc1on •  Aims to enhance produc1vity, profitability, and the provision of ecosystem services •  At the interface of climate change adapta1on and mi1ga1on •  Agroforestry can sequester 3 Mg C ha-­‐1 year-­‐1 – most of all changes to cul1vated land (IPCC 2001) IPCC 2001. Special Report Land Use, Land-­‐Use Change and Forestry Agroforestry for carbon sequestra-on Research ques-ons •  How much carbon can be sequestered by parkland Agroforestry in the West African Sahel? •  How will climate change affect C sequestra1on poten1al? Parkland Agroforestry in the Sahel Parkland Agroforestry in the Sahel Poten-al areas for Agroforestry Datasets •  No data on Agroforestry distribu1on; limited on land use •  Recent 2-­‐km resolu1on land use map for West Africa (USGS, Tappan et al. unpublished) •  18 published ar1cles on parklands (101 loca1ons) •  Climate informa1on (min/max temps, precipita1on) from WorldClim database Poten-al areas for Agroforestry Approach Known parkland loca-ons Clima-c data layers Ecological niche modeling – Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) Requires occurrence input (species, ecosystems) Characterizes environment based on GIS layers (climate) Calculates suitability score for all loca1ons within study extent Phillips et al. 2006. Ecological Modelling 190, 231–259 Poten-al areas for Agroforestry Approach Known parkland loca-ons Clima-c data layers Confine to agricultural land MaxEnt suitability Poten-al areas for Agroforestry Approach Known parkland loca-ons Future climate data layers Confine to agricultural land Future MaxEnt suitability Poten-al areas for Agroforestry MaxEnt: Suitable areas for parkland Agroforestry Current clima1c condi1ons Poten-al areas for Agroforestry MaxEnt: Suitable areas for Parkland Agroforestry Current clima1c condi1ons Carbon stock in parkland agroforestry Informa1on very scarce: only 3 studies Woomer et al. 2004. Journal of Arid Environments 59, 625–642 Tschakert 2004. Clima1c Change 67, 273–290 Takimoto et al. 2008. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 125, 159–166 Carbon stock in parkland agroforestry Informa1on very scarce: only 3 studies 46 +20 26 Woomer et al. 2004. Journal of Arid Environments 59, 625–642 Tschakert 2004. Clima1c Change 67, 273–290 Takimoto et al. 2008. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 125, 159–166 Carbon stock in parkland agroforestry MaxEnt: Suitable areas for Parkland Agroforestry Current clima1c condi1ons Carbon stock in parkland agroforestry MaxEnt: Suitable areas for Parkland Agroforestry Current clima1c condi1ons Carbon stock in parkland agroforestry MaxEnt: Suitable areas for Parkland Agroforestry Current clima1c condi1ons 558 Tg C 2.05 Pg CO2 Carbon stock in parkland agroforestry MaxEnt: Suitable areas for Parkland Agroforestry Current clima1c condi1ons Open ques-ons What is the baseline / how much parkland exists? How much can be sequestered annually, for h558 ow Tg Clong? Will climate change affect suitability of the Sahel for 2.05 Pg CO2 parklands? Climate change impact on C stocks Climate change impact on C stocks Climate change impact on C stocks Conclusions •  Under current clima1c condi1ons, parkland Agroforestry can raise C stocks by about 0.5-­‐0.6 Pg above the ‘pure agriculture’ baseline •  Future expected climates may not support parklands, not even agriculture •  Agroforestry is also an adapta1on tools: controls microclimates, diversifies incomes, enhances soil fer1lity etc. Agroforestry is a valuable tool for climate change mi-ga-on and adapta-on in the West African Sahel Thanks for your aYen-on! [email protected] Agroforestry is a valuable tool for climate change mi-ga-on and adapta-on in the West African Sahel