Turkey: Expanding Opportunities for the Next Generation Francisco Ferreira and Jesko Hentschel April 19, 2010 Motivation Inequality of Opportunity Child Development ECD Reflections Outline 1. Motivation 2. Inequality of Opportunity 3. Child Development Today 4. Early Childhood Development 5. Reflections 2 Motivation Inequality of Opportunity Child Development ECD Reflections Turkey’s income inequality remains high by European standards, and “middling” by international standards Gini Index for Income per capita 70.0 60.0 45.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 Source: United Nations University – WIDER Data (2003) 3 Motivation Inequality of Opportunity Child Development ECD Reflections Still, Turks appear to be unusually inequalityaverse. The share of the population that strongly agrees that "the gap between rich and poor should be reduced in the country" 80 70 66 60 50 % 40 35 36 38 41 41 45 43 43 44 47 49 51 51 52 52 54 55 55 58 58 69 61 30 28 29 29 30 20 23 20 10 0 Source data: Life in Transition Survey, 2006 4 Motivation Inequality of Opportunity Child Development ECD Reflections What is the main reason why there are some What is the Main Reason why there are people needin in Turkey some peoplein in need Turkey today?today? Inevitable part of life, 3% Unluckiness, 8% Laziness, 25% Injustice, 65% Source data: Life in Transition Survey, 2006 Source: Life in Transition Survey (2006) 5 Motivation Inequality of Opportunity Child Development ECD Reflections • Does that perception of unjust inequality reflect unequal opportunities, more than differences in effort or merit? 1. Can we quantify the extent of inequality of opportunity in Turkey? 2. How does the process of intergenerational transmission of life chances affect Turkish children today? 3. What are the implications for social policy going forward? • There is an established literature on inequality of opportunity in theories of justice: Dworkin (1981): What is Equality? Part 1: Equality of Welfare; Part 2: Equality of Resources”, Philos. Public Affairs, 10, pp.185-246; 283-345. Arneson (1989): “Equality of Opportunity for Welfare”, Philosophical Studies, 56, pp.77-93. Cohen (1989): “On the Currency of Egalitarian Justice”, Ethics, 99, pp.906-944. Roemer (1998): Equality of Opportunity, (Harvard University Press) Fleurbaey (2009): Fairness, Responsibility and Welfare (OUP) 6 Motivation Inequality of Opportunity Child Development ECD Reflections • More recently, there have also been a number of efforts to measure inequality of opportunities empirically: • • • • • • van de Gaer, Schokkaert and Martinez (Economica, 2001) Roemer et. al. (J. Pub. E., 2003) Checchi and Peragine (2005) Bourguignon, Ferreira and Menéndez (RIW, 2007) Lefranc, Pistolesi and Trannoy (RIW, 2008) Lefranc, Pistolesi and Trannoy (J. Pub. E., 2009) • And the concept has been used to inform the policy debate in development circles: • • • • World Development Report 2006: Equity and Development Barros, Ferreira, Molinas and Saavedra (2009) ADB: (Zhuang, 2010) Poverty, Inequality and Inclusive Growth in Asia UNDP: LAC Human Development Report 2010 7 Motivation Inequality of Opportunity Child Development ECD Reflections • But what is inequality of opportunity, exactly? • Most of this applied literature has drawn on John Roemer’s definition of equality of opportunities: • Advantages (such as income, education, well-being) are determined by individual efforts, as well as pre-determined circumstances. • Circumstances should be treated as morally irrelevant. • Thus: “Leveling the playing field means guaranteeing that those who apply equal degrees of effort end up with equal achievement, regardless of their circumstances. The centile of the effort distribution of one’s type provides a meaningful intertype comparison of the degree of effort expended in the sense that the level of effort does not” (Roemer, 1998, p.12) 8 Motivation Inequality of Opportunity Child Development ECD Reflections • This definition has been formalized as follows: • Consider a finite population of agents indexed by i 1,...N • Each i is characterized by • C is a vector of J elements, each of which is discrete and can take a finite number of values xj. • Define a partition T1 , T2 ,...,TK • Roemer’s definition implies: yi , Ci , ei y k y l , 0,1; Tk , Tl • Invert the quantile function to obtain the “strong criterion” of inequality of opportunity in Bourguignon, Ferreira and Walton (2007) and Lefranc, Pistolesi and Trannoy (2008). F k y F l y , l , k Tk , Tl Motivation Inequality of Opportunity Child Development ECD Reflections • Empirically, the estimation of Fk(y) is very data-intensive. There is a trade off between implementing a full-distribution identification criterion, and recognizing the role of the full set of observable circumstances. • An alternative approach (CP, 2005; BFM, 2007; FG, 2008) is to consider a weaker empirical identification criterion for E. Op.: k y l y , l , k Tk , Tl • Proposed as an empirical identification criterion, given the above trade-off and a desire to incorporate a richer typology in the empirical analysis. • Measuring inequality of opportunity would now seem to require assessing differences in the smoothed distribution ik , rather than on the marginal distribution y = y1 ,..., y N . • Two obvious candidate measures: a I ik I ik r I y Motivation Inequality of Opportunity Child Development ECD Reflections • Computing such a measure requires data on two types of variables : – Advantage: an outcome that everyone can be reasonably presumed to value: e.g. income, earnings, educational achievement – Circumstances: pre-determined and beyond the control of the individual: e.g. family background, race or ethnicity, birthplace • High quality data sets that contain both sets of variables are rare in developing countries, and were not available in Turkey – In particular, most household or labor surveys have limited information on family background for today’s adults (i.e. the incomes, education levels, or occupations of their parents) 11 Motivation Inequality of Opportunity Child Development ECD Reflections The Data Configuration in Turkey HBS TDHS • Surveyed in 2003 • 8,500 households • Surveyed in 2003-04. • 10,836 household • 8,075 ever-married women • Detailed information on consumption • but no information on parental background • No information on incomes or consumption... • but good information on family background • common set of household “asset” variables • common set of household “asset” variables Motivation Inequality of Opportunity Child Development ECD Reflections The Data Configuration in Turkey • Proposed methods to circumvent data configuration: nk yk 2 n ˆrN k Var y .05 Then compute: 0 Density x pi x p yi a p s p p .1 .15 • Method 1: compute a Filmer-Pritchett (2001) “wealth index” for each household, as the first principal component of a vector of assets (x) that includes: – durable goods Distribution of the asset index (with weights) – housing characteristics – access to amenities. -10 -5 0 Asset index 5 10 Table 1: The Household wealth index Principal components and summary statistics for asset indicators Variable Mean Std. Dev. Scoring factor (/sd): full set of variables Has gas or electric oven Has microwave oven Has dishwasher Has blender/mixer Has DVD/VCD player Has washing machine Has video camera Has iron Has satellite antenna Has vacuum cleaner Has air conditioner Has television Has video Has cable TV Has camera Has CD player Has cellular phone Has computer Has internet Has private car Has motorcycle Has bicycle Works own or family's agricultural land Source of water for drinking (ordered variable) Piped water inside dwelling Type of toilet (ordered variable) Toilet inside dwelling Type of floor material in dwelling (ordered variable) Dwelling is owned by a household member Dwelling is rented Dwelling is a lodging No rent paid for dwelling Other type of dwelling Number of members per sleeping room 0.712 0.072 0.221 0.392 0.317 0.783 0.035 0.851 0.143 0.756 0.047 0.947 0.073 0.062 0.339 0.182 0.671 0.116 0.063 0.258 0.045 0.193 0.137 0.501 0.742 0.675 0.782 0.041 0.620 0.248 0.014 0.116 0.002 2.412 0.453 0.259 0.415 0.488 0.465 0.412 0.184 0.356 0.350 0.429 0.212 0.223 0.259 0.240 0.473 0.386 0.470 0.320 0.242 0.437 0.208 0.394 0.344 0.861 0.437 1.946 0.413 0.520 0.485 0.432 0.118 0.321 0.040 1.223 Number of members per room Observations 1.325 10,836 0.872 0.234 0.138 0.257 0.269 0.218 0.243 0.140 0.221 0.106 0.263 0.140 0.128 0.153 0.164 0.249 0.205 0.223 0.222 0.196 0.195 -0.009 0.116 -0.136 0.105 Scoring factor (/sd): common set of variables 0.191 0.331 0.258 0.265 0.208 0.205 0.138 0.212 0.240 0.252 0.316 0.295 0.251 -0.026 -0.182 0.244 0.224 0.266 0.219 -0.043 0.062 0.039 -0.031 -0.017 -0.133 -0.047 0.043 -0.043 -0.165 Notes: mean and standard deviation of the ownership, access to amenities and dwelling characteristics (full and reduced) set of variables, and scoring factors for the first principal components, divided by the standard deviation. Motivation Inequality of Opportunity Child Development ECD Reflections The Data Configuration in Turkey • Proposed methods to circumvent data configuration: • Method 2: Combine information from the two surveys to impute estimated consumption into the TDHS. – Estima ln c X w on the ancillary sample (HBS), for common set of X, w. ~ ˆ – Impute ci exp ' xi ˆ' wi i into the main sample (TDHS), using linear prediction from the HBS, and a bootstrapped, heteroscedasticity-consistent estimate of the residuals. .8 Log annual expenditure observed in the HBS and predicted in the DHS .6 Then compute: 0 .2 .4 E0 ik r E0 y 4 6 Predicted in the TDHS 8 Observed in the HBS 10 Motivation Inequality of Opportunity Child Development ECD Reflections Circumstances and Types Table 4: Partition of the population by circumstances Characteristics Pop. Share Percent Type of area Rural area Urban area 57.0 43.0 Birth region East Central West 22.3 45.7 32.0 Mother's education no education or unknown primary education Secondary education higher education 68.8 28.3 2.5 0.3 Father's education no education or unknown primary education Secondary education higher education 43.0 48.5 6.8 1.7 Mother tongue Other language Turkish 14.9 85.1 Number of siblings less than 3 21.7 4 to 5 48.8 6 to 8 25.0 9 or more 4.5 Sample of ever-married women aged 30-49 Source: TDHS 2003 4x4x4x3x2x2=768 Motivation Inequality of Opportunity Child Development ECD Reflections Table 6: Measures of Inequality of Opportunity for ever-married Turkish women Economic outcomes measure Inequality measure Parametric decomposition Overall inequality Total share of inequality of opportunity Non parametric Parametric Partial shares associated with circumstances Type of area Birth region Mother's education Father's education Mother tongue Number of siblings Asset index (main) Asset index (subsidiary) Imputed consumption Variance Imputed consumption (no residuals) Variance Variance Imputed consumption (no residuals) MLD Log Imputed consumption 6.01 [0.13] 4.14 [0.12] 26985 [1895] 57512 0.255 [0.007] 0.362 0.358 [0.012] 0.311 [0.012] 0.357 [0.014] 0.302 [0.014] 0.407 [0.023] 0.334 [0.021] 0.264 0.426 [0.015] 0.374 [0.016] 0.323 0.116 [0.009] 0.004 [0.004] 0.058 [0.008] 0.074 [0.009] 0.030 [0.005] 0.029 [0.006] 0.114 [0.009] 0.003 [0.004] 0.064 [0.009] 0.074 [0.011] 0.022 [0.005] 0.025 [0.005] 0.073 [0.007] 0.016 [0.005] 0.113 [0.018] 0.085 [0.015] 0.016 [0.004] 0.031 [0.005] 0.042 0.154 [0.011] 0.039 [0.009] 0.136 [0.016] 0.128 [0.015] 0.073 [0.008] 0.070 [0.010] 0.107 Variance Observations 5229 Bootstrap standard errors in brackets. Bootstrap S.E.s not reported for imputed consumption with residuals, given double boostrapping. Source: TDHS 2003 with consumption imputed from HBS 2003. Sample: ever-married women, aged 30-49 0.195 0.008 0.069 0.048 0.010 0.018 MLD Log 0.262 0.025 0.097 0.090 0.051 0.049 Motivation Inequality of Opportunity Child Development ECD Reflections Inequality of Opportunity for Wealth Decomposition of wealth inequality in Turkey 100% Efforts, luck and circumstances not measured 90% 80% 70% 60% 68% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 32% Circumstances: Lowerbound estimation for inequality in wealth asset index attributable to opportunities Partial shares of opportunities contributing to inequality Birth region 1% Birth Area (Urban/Rural) 39% Number of siblings 9% Language 10% Mother's education 18% Father's education 23% 0% 1 18 Motivation Inequality of Opportunity Child Development ECD Reflections Opportunity profiles • The non-parametric decompositions used to calculate lower-bound estimates of a cardinal measure of inequality of opportunity can also yield various orderings of types: – Complete orderings can be generated by choosing a particular moment or percentile of the type-specific distributions, and ordering them accordingly – Two examples: * T1 , T2 ,..., TK | 1 2 ... K – “Opportunity Profile”: – “Opportunity-deprivation profile”: T1 , T2 ,..., T j ,..., TJ | ... ; , k J ; and * 1 2 J J k J 1 N j 1 J j N N j j 1 Motivation Inequality of Opportunity Child Development ECD Reflections Opportunity profiles Motivation Inequality of Opportunity Child Development ECD Reflections Inequality of Opportunity for Educational Achievement • Using PISA results (2006), between a quarter and a third of overall educational achievement variation can be traced to underlying inequality of opportunities. • That range depends on alternative treatments for selection into the PISA sample. • While gender emerges as a key correlate of enrollment, as we will report later on, it is not a significant correlate of achievement. • Family background variables are the key circumstances “explaining” achievement. • Books, durables and cultural possessions more important than parental occupation. 22 Motivation Inequality of Opportunity Child Development ECD Reflections Inequality of Opportunity for Educational Achievement 23 Motivation Inequality of Opportunity Child Development ECD Reflections The intergenerational transmission of opportunity continues to shape children’s life chances today. Intergenerational Opportunity Groups Birth place of Mother Education of maternal grandparents Low Intergenerational Opportunity Group Rural East Less than primary completed High Intergenerational Opportunity Group Urban West/Center At least primary completed 24 Motivation Inequality of Opportunity Child Development ECD Reflections Child nutritional outcomes differ considerably across the two groups of children. 0 .1 .2 .3 .4 Height-for-Age Measure Height for Age Measures LINOG and HINOG (indicates for stunting) -6 -4 -2 0 Standard deviations from mean Lowest opportunity group of mothers 2 4 Highest opportunity group of mothers Note: Stunting is often defined as height for age less than two SDs below the25mean. Motivation Inequality of Opportunity Child Development ECD Reflections Relative Risk of Child Poverty, Stunting and Iodine efficiency by Intergenerational Opportunity Relative Risk of Child Poverty, StuntingGroup, and Iodine2004 Deficiency, by intergenerational opportunity group, 2004 2.0 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -0.7 -1.0 -0.6 -0.8 Child poverty (below age 5) Stunting Iodine deficiency Note: Risk relative to average incidence for all children aged 5 and younger (poverty rate is 36.2%, stunting rate is 12% and iodine deficiency rate is 50%). Source: Staff calculations based on Turkey Demographic and Health Survey (2003/2004) 26 Motivation Inequality of Opportunity Child Development ECD Reflections Cognitive Development Inputs at Household Level for 36-47 month old children in Turkey Cognitive Development Inputs at Household Level for 36-47 month old children in Turkey 86.8 90 77.1 80 65.3 Score 70 60 76.6 63.5 57.4 50.9 50 35.3 40 30 20 12.8 10 Mean for low SES Mean for middle SES Mean for high SES Responsivity score (of mother towards the child) Language stimulation score (of mother for the child) Learning materials score (avaliable to child at home) Source: Data from The Study of Early Childhood Developmental Ecologies in Turkey, 2008 27 Motivation Inequality of Opportunity Child Development ECD Reflections Cognitive Development Scores of 36-47 month old children in Turkey Cognitive Development Scores of 36-47 month old children in Turkey Score 1.5 1.3 1.0 Tifaldi test- receptive language score 0.5 Corsi test- short term memory score 0.6 0.1 0.0 Mean for low SES -0.5 -1.0 Mean for middle SES Mean for high SES -0.4 -0.8 -0.6 Source: Data from the Study of Early Childhood Developmental Ecologies in Turkey, 2008, 36-47 month old children and their families. 28 Motivation Inequality of Opportunity Child Development ECD Reflections Enrollment Age Profiles by Opportunity Group and Gender, (2004) 7 8 9 10 11 age 12 13 .6 14 15 .2 .5 .4 .6 .7 enrollment rate .8 .8 .9 1 Enrollment-age profiles within low opportunity group 1 Enrollment-age profiles by opportunity group 7 8 9 10 11 age low opportunity: grandparents did not go to school and mother born in a rural area of the East region high opportunity: grandparents did go to school and mother born in an urban area of another region Girls 12 13 14 Boys 29 15 Motivation Inequality of Opportunity Child Development ECD Reflections Under-5 Mortality Rate (2006, per 1,000 live births) U5 mortality rate per 1000 live births 40 35 Indonesia Mexico 30 Turkey 25 20 15 Brazil Argentina Russia 10 Chile Poland 5 Korea 0 0 10,000 20,000 US UK Ireland Spain Germany FranceJapan Italy Finland 30,000 40,000 50,000 GDP per capita (constant prices) 30 Motivation Inequality of Opportunity Child Development ECD Reflections Early Childhood Development • Development of child begins pre-natally, learning begins directly after birth • All basic brain development takes place in early years – on which later growth and learning ability depends – Stunting (low height for age) in early ages reduces intelligence – Iodine deficiency leads to mental retardation – Insufficient cognitive stimulation reduces learning abilities 31 Motivation Inequality of Opportunity Child Development ECD Reflections Coverage of Various ECD programs in Turkey by Age Category Intervention Coverage of Age Group Pregnancy Monitoring, MOH (2004) ~ 80% Immunizations - DPT, MoH (2004) ~ 90% Growth and Psycho-Social Monitoring - Family Doctors, MoH (2008) < 10 % Private day-care centers, nurseries and community driven models (2008) Preschool (Ages 4-5-6) Parent training, MONE (2008) Toddler and posttoddler (18-36 months) Infancy (0-18 months) Prenatal Child Development Phase SHÇEK Community Centers (2008) ~3% 100 % coverage line <1% Parent training, MONE (2008) ~ 3% Growth and Psycho-Social Monitoring - Family Doctors, MoH (2008) < 10 % < 2% Home-based MOCEP - for 6 year group only, MONE (2008) ~ 6% Private preschools (2008) ~ 1% Public preschools & kindergartens - for 5-6 year group, MONE (2008) ~ 30 % 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 32 Motivation Inequality of Opportunity Child Development ECD Reflections Pre-primary Gross Enrollment for 3-6 year olds (%) 2006 120 France Germany Mexico Preprimary Enrollment (Gross) 100 Korea Italy Sweden Russia 80 Japan UK 60 Finland Poland Chile 40 US Indonesia Kazakhstan 20 Turkey 2006 0 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 GDP per capita (constant prices) 33 Motivation Inequality of Opportunity Child Development ECD Reflections Pre-primary Enrollment 3-6 year olds (%) Graph Z: PreschoolsGross and Daycare Access, byfor socioeconomic status and rural/urban 2006 location [2008] 90 Mothers in sample (%) 76.6 76.2 80 73.9 68.2 70 62.7 60 54.0 50 40.7 34.7 40 26.2 30 20 18.8 10 0 Low SES Middle SES High SES Socio-economic status There is pre/nursery school in neighborhood Rural Urban Location There is elementary school in neighborhood Note: Socio-economic status is defined as an index that combines income, household assets and the educational level of adults in the household. Source: The Study of Early Childhood Developmental Ecologies in Turkey (2008), Koc University. 34 Motivation Inequality of Opportunity Child Development ECD Reflections Graph ZZZ: Pre-School Enrolment [2008] and Human Pre-School Enrolment and (2004), Human by Development Development Province Index, by Province % of children in preschool (%) 60 Sakarya, 54.1 50 Amasya, 48.7 40 Trabzon, 40.2 Erzurum, 37.6 Burdur, 36.8 30 Siirt, 28.7 20 Istanbul, 14.6 Van, 11.7 Ağrı, 8.6 10 0 0 20 40 High HDI Ranking of Province in HDI index 60 80 Low HDI 35 Motivation Inequality of Opportunity Child Development ECD Reflections • Spending-incidence by age group: • Centrally financed expenditures that are not contributionfinanced • Age-beneficiary relationship derived for each individual budgetary program • Health: age-specific beneficiary weights from existing utilization/cost study. Also applied to non-contributory treasury financing of SSI deficit; • Education: each functional item with specific breakdown (e.g., part of primary expenditure going to pre-school age) • SP: program by program according to nature • Simulations: how does intra-household distribution of cash transfers (especially pensions) alter distributional picture? 36 Motivation Inequality of Opportunity Child Development ECD Reflections Per Capita Social Expenditures by Age Group in Turkey Per Capita Social Expenditures by Age Group in Turkey (2008) Security (Central Government, Excluding Social (Central Government, Excluding Social Security Contributions) Contributions, 2008 2.5 Education TL in 2008 Social Protection 2.0 Health 1.5 1.0 0.5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 Age Group (0-90) 37 Motivation Inequality of Opportunity Child Development ECD Reflections Benefit Simulations of ECD policies: Pre-School Education • Impact evaluation of one year pre-school programs: one-year additional net schooling impact (Ertem et al, 2006, Kaytaz 2005) • Microsimulation approach a la Bourguignon, Ferreira and Leite (2008) • Increases in education attainment based on individual/family characteristics and given mean expansion at national level • Fertility choices • Occupational choices (unemployment, formal, informal, independent) • Earnings changes (formal, informal, independent) – constant returns assumption 38 Motivation Inequality of Opportunity Child Development ECD Reflections Benefit Simulations of ECD policies: Pre-School Education benefits! • Expanding education of the 20-39 year olds today by one year (equal to measured impact of pre-school education) • Two channels: increased education on earnings occupational distribution • Impacts: 8 percent increase of mean earnings of all individuals 20-39 years of age 14 percent increase in female labor force participation rate 5 percent reduction of poverty 39 Motivation Inequality of Opportunity Child Development ECD Reflections Aggregate Income and Poverty Reduction Effects of Aggregate Female Income and Poverty Reduction Effects of Increased Labor Force Participation Increased Female Labor Force Participation 10.0 6.9 3.4 5.0 % points 0.0 -5.0 -10.0 -8.0 -15.0 -15.0 -20.0 Poverty Reduction Full-time Income Growth Part-time 40 Motivation Inequality of Opportunity Child Development ECD Reflections A. inequality of opportunity shown for determining education and wealth outcomes. Region less important than area; B. inequity travels across generations: children’s life chances are significantly impacted by their grandparents socio-economic profile C. child development diverges strongly across opportunity groups and poverty at very early ages, especially for girls. Traditional solidarity system does not compensate for disadvantage 41 Motivation Inequality of Opportunity Child Development ECD Reflections D. Pro-equity policies would aim to weaken the link between circumstances and outcomes in early ages – early childhood development policies E. Today, social expenditures are not reaching children below school age and coverage of disadvantaged children is low F. Quo vadis, social policy? 42
© Copyright 2026 Paperzz