Proactive Network Planning in Medium Voltage Level
 Introduction
 Analysis
 Methods
 Exemplary Examinations
 Conclusion
M.Sc. Marius Sieberichs
40th Annual IAEE International Conference
Singapore, 20. June 2017
1
Introduction
Background – Tasks of Network Planning
Projects
Projects
Projects
Reference
Network
Current
Network
Development of Network Utilization
1
Reference Network Planning
 Identification of network structure with long-term
minimal costs
 Compliance with regulations for secure and reliable
network operation
10 years
2
Time
Network Expansion Planning
 Determination of planning measures and selection
of economical realization times
 Compliance with regulations for secure and reliable
network operation
2
Introduction
Motivation
Development of the Supply Task
 Increase in distributed and renewable generation units in medium voltage level
 Integration of novel consumers such as electromobility and heat pumps
 Development of the supply task requires network expansion measures by distribution system operator
§
Impact of the Regulatory Framework
 Regulatory Framework aims to guarantee secure and cost-efficient electricity supply
 Incentive Regulation decouples cost-minimization strategy from value-oriented strategy
 Distribution System Operators (DSO) have to adapt network expansion planning to the impacts of the
regulatory framework
Improvement of Data Quality in Planning Process
 Increasing need for precision of network data in the planning process
 Availability of dedicated data platforms providing precise, processible topographical data
 DSOs should integrate topographical boundaries into the planning process
Extension of an approach for proactive network planning with regard to topographical
restrictions and impacts of the regulatory framework
3
Analysis
§
Regulatory Framework
 Cyclical Cost Review defines the initial level of the revenue cap for following regulatory period
 Efficiency Factor determines the level of reduction of the revenue cap by comparisons of DSOs
Payments
Cyclical Cost Review and
Efficiency Factor
Costs1
Inefficient
Costs
Efficient Costs
Time
2019
Expenditures
Revenue Cap
Base
2023
Free Cash Flow to investors (positive)
Free Cash Flow to investors (negative)
Focus Year 2016
1: Legislation for Networks Fees of
Electricity Networks (StromNEV)
3
Analysis
§
Regulatory Framework




Cyclical Cost Review defines the initial level of the revenue cap for following regulatory period
Efficiency Factor determines the level of reduction of the revenue cap by comparisons of DSOs
Quality Element interperiodically grants a bonus / a sanction on the revenue cap depending on the reliability
Expansion Factor interperiodically adjusts the revenues depending on the change of the supply task
Cyclical Cost Review and
Efficiency Factor
Payments
Quality Element and Expansion Factor
Costs1
Inefficient
Costs
Efficient Costs
Time
2019
Expenditures
Revenue Cap
Base
2023
Free Cash Flow to investors (positive)
Free Cash Flow to investors (negative)
Focus Year 2016
1: Legislation for Networks Fees of
Electricity Networks (StromNEV)
4
Analysis
§
Economical Evaluation of Planning Projects
Cost-Optimization
 Calculation of costs associated with all M planning measures
 Determination of Net Present Value (NPV) over all years N
 Minimization of total NPV over observation period
𝑁
𝑏=1
𝑡=1
𝑁𝑃𝑉 =
𝐶𝑡
(1 + 𝑖)𝑡
Free-Cash-Flow (FCF) to equity
provider
Revenue
DFCF-Optimization
 Company and project evaluation by Discounted-Free-CashFlow-method (DFCF)
 Method evaluates future free cashflow for payout to
investors
 Determination of DFCF for expected return on
equity (ROE)
 Maximization of total DFCF for given ROE
𝑀
Payments for Investments
Payments for Taxes and Borrowed
Capital
Operating payments
𝑀
𝑁
𝐷𝐹𝐶𝐹 =
𝑏=1 𝑡=1
FCF
(1 + ROE)𝑡
Cashflow Calculation in Year 1
5
Analysis
Cost Drivers of a Medium Voltage Network and Topographical Data
Topographical Data for Line Routings
 Digital data for topographical structures available on public data
platforms (example: Open Street Map)
 Capturing of real topographical data such as streets, rivers,
buildings, railroad lines etc.
 Filtering and preparation of the data enables automatized
processing in the planning process
 Consideration of topographical data in the planning process
to design reliable, secure and cost-efficient target network
Exemplary investment costs for
trench and cable
100
80
%
Costs
Cost Drivers
 Costs for underground cables are the main cost driver in cable networks
 Trench construction holds high share of underground cable costs
 Multiple utilization of one trench for multiple cables has a significant
potential for cost reduction (Especially consideration of empty tubes)
 Evaluation of topography is beneficial for the planning process to
optimize multiple utilization of trenches
60
trench
40
cable
20
0
Possible line routing
Building
Railroad line
Method
67
Two-step Approach for Proactive Network Planning
Combined reference network and network expansion planning
 Determination of long-term cost-minimal network structures in reference network planning
 Utilization of results of Reference Network Planning in Network expansion Planning as input parameters
 Determination of optimal realization times of expansion measures to approach long-term cost-minimal structure
Network /
Supply tasks
Degrees of freedom in
regulation and planning
Reference Network Planning
Network Expansion Planning
Determination of street graph
Identification of expansion measures
Development of reference network
Development of expansion plan
Technical / Economical Evaluation
Technical / Economical Evaluation
Optimal expansion measures and
realization plan
Method
68
Two-step Approach for Proactive Network Planning
Combined reference network and network expansion planning
 Determination of long-term cost-minimal network structures in reference network planning
 Utilization of results of Reference Network Planning in Network expansion Planning as input parameters
 Determination of optimal realization times of expansion measures to approach long-term cost-minimal structure
Network /
Supply tasks
Reference Network Planning
Determination of street graph
Degrees of freedom in
regulation and planning
Determination of the initial
street graph
Development of reference network
Amalgamation of network and
street data
Technical / Economical Evaluation
Calculation of the shortest paths
Optimal expansion measures and
realization plan
Method
69
Two-step Approach for Proactive Network Planning
Combined reference network and network expansion planning
 Determination of long-term cost-minimal network structures in reference network planning
 Utilization of results of Reference Network Planning in Network expansion Planning as input parameters
 Determination of optimal realization times of expansion measures to approach long-term cost-minimal structure
Network /
Supply tasks
Degrees of freedom in
regulation and planning
Reference Network Planning
Network Expansion Planning
Determination of street graph
Identification of expansion measures
Development of reference network
Development of expansion plan
Technical / Economical Evaluation
Technical / Economical Evaluation
Optimal expansion measures and
realization plan
Method
6
10
Two-step Approach for Proactive Network Planning
Combined reference network and network expansion planning
 Determination of long-term cost-minimal network structures in reference network planning
 Utilization of results of Reference Network Planning in Network expansion Planning as input parameters
 Determination of optimal realization times of expansion measures to approach long-term cost-minimal structure
Network /
Supply tasks
Degrees of freedom in
regulation and planning
Network Expansion Planning
§
FCF
Revenue
Expenditures
Identification of expansion measures
Development of expansion plan
Technical / Economical Evaluation
Optimal expansion measures and
realization plan
7
Exemplary Examinations
Exemplary Examinations
Current Network
Supply Task
 Current Network: Rural distribution system on
medium-voltage level
• Total Load: ~ 50 MW
• Total Feed-in: ~ 3 MW
 Current supply task characterized by the load
of the customers
 Development of the supply task in the observation period
of 10 years
 13 % increase of loads and number of customers
 175 % increase of feed-in peak power
 Significant expansion of feed-in over the planning horizon
Primary substation
Medium-Voltage line
8
Exemplary Examinations
Results of Reference Network Planning
Functional structure of reference network
 Combined ring- and branch-structure
•
4 medium-voltage rings, 3 medium-voltage
branches
Primary substation
target grid structure
Substations:
S < 300 kVA
300 kVA < S < 600 kVA
S > 600 kVA
Line routings of current grid and target grid
 Line routings of new lines follow courses of roads
 High correlation of line routings between the grids
 Multiple utilization of trenches possible (empty tubes)
Primary substation
target grid line
current grid line
Substations:
S < 300 kVA
300 kVA < S < 600 kVA
S > 600 kVA
9
Exemplary Examinations
Effects of the Regulatory Framework on the Realization Plan
 Shift of the economically optimal realization times depending on the underlying economical evaluation
 Concentration of expansion measures in specific years of Incentive Regulation Ordinance for DFCF-Optimization
 Cost-optimization leads to lower return on expansion measures
 Value-oriented DSOs should implement optimization towards regulatory framework to maximize economical outcome
18
30
7%
T. 29
€
14
DFCF
Number of planning measures
16
12
10
8
28
27
6
4
26
2
25
0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
CostOptimization
DFCFOptimization
10
Conlcusion and main results
Conclusions
Aim of the Study
 Advanced proactive network planning for consideration of supply task Development
Analysis
 Topographical data provides potential for improved efficiency in reference network planning
 Regulatory framework impacts the economical evaluation for planning projects
Method
 Combined two step approach consisting of reference network planning and network expansion planning
provides long-term cost reductions while maintaining short-term profitability of the network operator
Results
 The integration of geographical data enables the design of a practically applicable reference networks
 The optimization towards the underlying regulatory framework impacts Discounted-Free-Cash-Flow
§
DISCUSSION
M. SC. MARIUS SIEBERICHS
INSTITUTE FOR POWER SYSTEMS AND POWER ECONOMICS
RWTH AACHEN UNIVERSITY - GERMANY
PHONE: +49 (0) 241 80-97880
E-MAIL: [email protected]
HTTP://WWW.IAEW.RWTH-AACHEN.DE
CO-AUTHORS
B. SC. ROBIN ASHRAFUZZAMAN
UNIV.-PROF. DR.-ING. ALBERT MOSER