Can you afford to retire? A submission to the Senate Select Committee on Superannuation Inquiry into the adequacy of tax arrangements for superannuation and retirement incomes June 2002 Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ..................................................................................................................... 3 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................................................... 3 CONCLUSION........................................................................................................................................................................ 6 1. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................ 7 2. TAXING SUPER ............................................................................................................................... 9 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................................................ 9 TAX REFORM PROPOSAL : TAXING THE BENEFITS AT PERSONAL TAX RATES ................................................... 9 ADDRESSING THE REVENUE SHORTFALL ..............................................................................................................11 SIMPLIFICATION .........................................................................................................................................................11 3. ADEQUACY AND ADDITIONAL SUPER SAVINGS ................................................................... 13 3.1 INTRODUCTION ..........................................................................................................................................................13 3.2 THE REPLACEMENT RATE.........................................................................................................................................13 3.3 WHAT THE STUDIES SHOW: ADEQUACY AND RETIREMENT BENEFITS ...........................................................14 3.4 ADEQUACY FOR SELF EMPLOYED ...........................................................................................................................15 3.5 ADEQUACY FOR WOMEN AND THOSE NOT IN THE WORK FORCE ....................................................................15 3.6 INCENTIVES TO CONTRIBUTE MORE TO SUPER ....................................................................................................16 3.6.1 Extending the co contribution .................................................................................................................................16 3.6.2 Making it easier for anyone to make a voluntary contribution .................................................................................17 4. MAKING INCOME STREAMS MORE ATTRACTIVE TO RETIREES ..................................... 19 4.1 INTRODUCTION ..........................................................................................................................................................19 4.2 BREATHING LIFE INTO COMPLYING ANNUITIES ..................................................................................................20 5. REFERENCES .................................................................................................................................22 Appendices A: BACKGROUND ON AUSTRALIA’S RETIREMENT SAVING ARRANGEMENTS: ................24 A.1 INTRODUCTION .........................................................................................................................................................24 A.2 WHY THE INTEREST IN RETIREMENT INCOMES?.................................................................................................25 B: INTERNATIONAL PENSION TAXES ........................................................................................29 C: HISTORY OF AUSTRALIAN TAX ARRANGEMENTS .............................................................. 31 D: ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF PENSION TAXATION ...................................................................33 D.1 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................................................33 D.2 AGGREGATE SAVING AND INVESTMENT .............................................................................................................33 D.2.1 The significance of inter-asset distortions ............................................................................................34 D.2.2 The retirement decision ..............................................................................................................................34 D.2.3 Implications for Superannuation Tax Design .....................................................................................35 E: TAX REFORM OPTIONS — A BENEFIT TAX WITH A WITHHOLDING TAX ....................37 E.1 FORMAL PROPOSAL FOR A WITHHOLDING TAX ...................................................................................................37 F: THE AUSTRALIAN INCOME STREAM MARKET.....................................................................40 2 Executive Summary This submission by AMP offers input to the Senate Select Committee on Superannuation’s Inquiry into “the adequacy of the tax arrangements for superannuation and related policy to address the retirement income and aged and health care needs of Australians”. Introduction The Intergenerational Report released as part of the 2002-03 Budget highlights the cost of an ageing population, particularly in the areas of health, aged care and aged pension. The report warns that, without substantial reform, the fiscal position of the Commonwealth will be negative by 2016 and deficits will increase to about 5% of GDP by 2041-42. The challenge for Governments is to find solutions and implement them early enough to make a difference. Superannuation will go a long way to controlling future aged pension costs. Superannuation can also form part of the overall solution to the looming aged care and health care funding crisis, by enabling more people to save for this type of expenditure. The AMP-NATSEM Income and Wealth Report estimates the average superannuation savings for those about to retire (the 50-64 year old group) is only $56,000 per person. With this level of saving, funding 15 years of basic consumption will be difficult enough, let alone additional health and aged care costs. Obviously if superannuation is to be used to provide for aged care and health expenses, more needs to be saved, and quickly. Extra contributions to super would help build up superannuation accounts quickly. However, reforming super taxes and providing better incentives for income streams would also provide retirees with better outcomes. These areas are the focus of AMP’s submission to the Senate Select Committee on Superannuation. As the baby boomers are going to be the primary drain on future public finances, having them save more while they are working is an equitable solution to the future funding crisis. Taxation reform When superannuation was first introduced in Australian, taxes were levied on benefits at personal income tax rates. However, the many changes since 1983 now see tax levied on contributions, earnings and benefits. These changes have reduced the tax effectiveness of retirement saving. Grandfathering past arrangements has added to complexity. On the upside, the relative tax effectiveness of income streams compared with lump sums has improved. However, the tax incentive for income streams can be markedly improved on. AMP considers that the only effective tax regime is one which taxes benefits at personal income rates, and does not tax earnings or contributions. Relative to current arrangements this regime would: increase the final retirement benefit for each dollar contributed; encourage voluntary savings; reduce the distortion between housing and super; encourage the take up of income streams; and improve the overall equity and efficiency of Australia’s retirement income policy. 3 Moving to a “benefit tax only” tax regime would create a substantial revenue shortfall in the short term. To address this, the Government could adopt a withholding tax (say at 10%) on contributions in combination with a benefit tax such that the net impact of the two taxes is equal to a benefit tax levied at the retiree’s personal income tax rate. AMP estimates that by implementing a benefit tax, someone on average earnings could add an extra 9% to their superannuation over 10 years, or12% over 20 years. A benefit tax would also make income streams more attractive to retirees as an entire lump sum payout would be treated as income in the year taken and subject to the personal income tax schedule. Placing the capital into an annuity/pension would defer income tax until it is drawn out of the saving environment to fund consumption. The Government should also consider consolidating and simplifying past grandfathered taxes. These currently create substantial complexity for customers and administrators and are the basis of the need for advice for almost all superannuation members from financial planners. The value of past taxes could be estimated on transition into the new arrangements and preserved as an indexed amount until retirement. If successfully implemented, this together with the other reforms, could dramatically simplify and streamline the retirement savings system and establish Australia as a world leading benchmark. Incentives to save more The aged pension funds minimum level of retirement income. While it is only a very basic level of income, it might be considered as ‘adequate’. Individuals, on the other hand, often consider an adequate retirement income to be one that allows them to maintain a reasonable standard of living compared with the one they enjoyed in their working life. Government studies have suggested that a replacement rate of at least 60% of pre retirement income would enable individuals to maintain their standards of living1. The studies suggest this is the de facto benchmark of an adequate retirement income. Saving 9% of wages over 40 years in superannuation plus age pension entitlements can achieve this replacement rate. If superannuation alone was to fund 60% replacement rate, a higher level of saving would be required. The aged pension is an important component of retirement income. If aged pension entitlements were tightened at some point in the future, a great deal more saving would be required by all generations to make up for the loss of aged pension income. For a male on average earnings, a 60% replacement rate means a before tax retirement income of about $25,000. Superannuation saving of roughly $250,000 would buy a complying life annuity income of around $15,000 a year. The aged pension would provide the other $10,000 a year. See FitzGerald 1993, Dawkins, (1992) and Willis (1995). Once taxes are accounted for, this would be equivalent to a replacement rate of disposable income of about 80%. 1 4 The latest AMP-NATSEM Income and Wealth Report indicates the average superannuation balance for the 50-64 group is only $56,000 per person. This is a long way off what is needed to purchase an adequate retirement income. It is clear that there is a very large gap between expectations of the baby boomers, their retirement plans and reality. With this in mind, retirement saving for baby boomers in particular must be addressed as a priority. As part of the solution the Government should: Offer an incentive that encourages employees to make a contribution to superannuation. Extending the co-contribution from the maximum threshold of $32,500 to annual incomes of $60,000 would provide such a measure. AMP’s preliminary estimates show that over 10 years, the co-contribution could add 28% to super for someone on average wages. Encourage voluntary retirement savings. AMP recommends that anyone between the age of 18 and 75 be able to make personal undeducted superannuation contributions, regardless of their employment status. This will enable those outside the workforce (especially women) to voluntarily save through super while reducing the administrative complexity of checking eligibility. Index the tax deductible threshold for self employed persons to wages. These measures would cost the Government revenue to implement (some less than others). However, the short term costs would be offset by future reductions in spending on aged programs. Ensuring super is used to provide an income in retirement There have been major improvements in the tax and social security rules for income streams, which has improved their position relative to lump sums. However, only around 28% of superannuation benefits end up in income streams. This is because of low saving levels and a generous tax free threshold2. It is also due to the restrictions governing current product offerings. Under the current rules, complying annuities (term life expectancy and lifetime annuities) must offer guaranteed returns. Capital is therefore generally invested in conservative assets. This effectively prevents retirees taking advantage of capital growth and potentially higher incomes. In a low inflation environment, it locks retirees into very low paying products which in turn entitles them to more Aged pension. Interestingly, the income streams receiving the most preferable tax and social security treatment are not popular with the retiring public. For example, complying annuities are asset test exempt but attracted only 4% of income stream sales in 2001. Life annuities have an inherent disincentive in that the payments cease on death, with no return of capital to the estate unless it occurs within the 10 year guarantee period. By comparison, complying term annuities return capital to the estate on death. 2 The tax free threshold is $105,000, which is indexed to CPI. 5 About 90% of income stream sales in 2001 went into allocated pensions/annuities. These products give the retiree investment choice and allow them to choose the amount of income they can draw out (within limits). On death, the remaining balance of the fund is returned to the family. However, the allocated annuity can also leave the retiree with no income if they live past their life expectancy. They also allow leakage of funds into a lump sum, as the pension/annuity can be cashed in at any time. AMP strongly recommends that the legislation be changed to allow complying annuities to offer non guaranteed rates of return, thereby passing on the benefits of an investment in diversified growth assets to retirees. This will attract more retirees into long term annuities that also provide the opportunity for long term capital growth and potentially higher incomes. Aged pension entitlement and therefore Government outlays would fall as a direct result of these potentially higher retirement incomes. For life annuities, the guarantee period should be extended to at least life expectancy or 15 years. Conclusion Many Australians retiring in the next 15 years expect that they will have enough savings to keep them in the lifestyle to which they are accustomed. However, analysis shows that they will have little more than the aged pension to live on. Expecting this group to finance more of their future aged care and health expenditures without an accompanying savings policy is futile. The combination of tax reform and voluntary saving incentives are effective measures to build up substantial balances in superannuation for baby boomers. Better income stream design will then help retirees manage and draw down the savings over a long term retirement. All three measures should further assist retirees and Governments face the challenges of an ageing population. 6 1. Introduction The intergenerational report released as part of this year’s Budget highlights the significant cost of an ageing population, particularly in the areas of health and aged care. If future Governments are going to avoid deficit, they will have to constrain expenditure in these areas. If this is the case, then retirees will have to fund more of these services. Superannuation will go some way to helping retirees, however, estimates show that many baby boomers are unlikely to retire with much more than $56,000 in super. This is not enough to fund a 15-20 year retirement let alone increased health and aged care expenditures. The bottom line is that all generations (in particular the baby boomers) will have to save more for their retirement. Measures can be taken now to improve the long term financial position of retirees, including tax reform, voluntary saving incentives and better designed income stream products. The adequacy of Australia’s retirement savings arrangements is determined by a combination of factors, not just tax. Equally important factors include: the level of contributions and the investment earnings on these; the length of time over which the savings are made; whether the savings are made in a defined benefit or defined contribution arrangement; and most importantly, how the benefit is taken at the point of retirement — a lump sum or a pension. AMP considers tax design, contributions and income streams as the key areas for the Government to focus on. The biggest criticism of Australian superannuation tax arrangements is that taxes are levied at three points. At each point these taxes are levied at relatively high rates. This undermines the tax incentive for making contributions and increases the level of complexity for the administrators. Most other developed economies with similar occupational saving arrangements only tax savings once, usually at the benefit stage. International best practice suggests taxing benefits at marginal tax rates. This would improve the efficiency and equity of Australia’s superannuation system and increase the incentive to make contributions. Importantly, a benefits tax would dramatically increase the incentive to take an income stream at retirement. If Australia replaced the current superannuation tax arrangements with a benefit tax it would create a substantial short term reduction in the Government’s revenue. AMP proposes a withholding tax on contributions as a way to meet part of this shortfall in revenue. The withholding tax (of say 10%) would be deducted at the benefit stage, leaving the member in the same net position as under a benefit tax only arrangement. At the same time, complexity could be addressed by estimating the present value of grandfathered tax arrangements and preserving these for future payment. Adequacy cannot be fully addressed by taxation alone. While defining what an adequate retirement income might be is difficult, past Government research has estimated that contributing 9% to superannuation over a full working life can achieve a 60% before tax replacement rate income. However, this outcome requires just over 5 times average earning being accumulated in super and a substantial contribution of aged pension. The most recent 7 AMP-NATSEM Income and Wealth Report estimates that just over 1 times average wages or $56,000, is the average superannuation balance. If a 60% before tax replacement rate is taken to be adequate, then there is a huge gap between expectations and reality for upcoming generations. The forecast intergenerational inequity consequences of an ageing population as highlighted in this year’s Budget (2002-03), and bridging the gap between expectations and reality could be partly offset if people were able to save more now while they are in the workforce. Making it easier for people to make contributions, and incentives for additional voluntary saving is a start. Integration between income streams and the aged pension is also required. In particular, complying annuities, which qualify for asset test exemption under social security rules, require legislative changes to enable them to offer non guaranteed rates of return. This will enable retirees to benefit from an investment in growth assets and therefore potential capital growth and higher incomes. In turn, this reduces eligibility for aged pension payments, saving the Government money in the long run. This submission works through the three key themes of tax reform, voluntary savings and more effective income stream design which AMP considers necessary to deliver retirement incomes that are capable of funding a good standard of living in retirement. By way of background, the key economic drivers behind Australia’s retirement saving arrangements are outlined in Appendix A. 8 2. Taxing super3 2.1 Introduction Taxation of retirement savings is important from two aspects. First, the tax arrangement create a monetary incentive to encourage people to save and second, it determines how much the individual receives as a final benefit. The pension tax system often found in developed countries is based on an expenditure tax. While this is possibly the best design, it is not commonly associated with mandatory defined contribution (DC) retirement policies. Perhaps this is because the political temptation to tax the large capital accumulation is considerable. It may also be because some policy makers believe that if a contribution is mandatory, the incentive issues central to the economic analysis for tax design are no longer relevant. For a mandatory superannuation system to be successful, international best practice should be adopted. While compulsion does indeed blunt the behavioral response to taxation, mandatory retirement saving is usually integrated with a voluntary component, making it possible to save more that the minimum employer contribution. Any voluntary saving will take place at the margin, where the incentives impact. In addition, taxing the accumulation at high rates along the way seriously erodes the amount available for retirement purposes. It also reduces people’s acceptance of the policy. Australian super tax arrangements have been criticised for their complexity, however, they have proved difficult to simplify. There are several reasons for this. First, even though retirement saving is by its very nature a long term phenomenon, current tax revenue neutrality has been accepted as a requirement of reform. Second, many are concerned with the equity implications of superannuation tax change, and the very complexities of present arrangements render equitable simplification problematic. Third, and perhaps most important, the debate has been conducted without any clear economic framework for tax analysis being adopted. As a result, there has been no serious consideration of the interplay between superannuation taxation and taxation policy more generally, and the impact of superannuation taxation on overall economic efficiency has been obscured. The two most important questions facing policy makers in designing and reforming superannuation taxation are; how preferential should the taxation of retirement saving be and; at what point (contribution, earnings or benefits) should retirement saving be taxed; and how to use taxation to effectively integrate the first, second and third tiers of the retirement policy. It is argued that levying marginal tax rates on benefits is the best pension tax design. It provides a strong incentive to save and is the most effective way of encouraging an income stream purchase at retirement over taking a lump sum. 2.2 Tax reform proposal : taxing the benefits at personal tax rates This submission starts with the proposition that the ‘best’ pension tax design is an expenditure tax, levied on benefits at personal income rates. An expenditure tax could be achieved by removing the taxes on contributions and earnings, and to tax benefits at the retiree’s personal tax rate. This is how retirement saving is taxed in 3 This section draws heavily on Doyle, Kingston and Piggott (1999). 9 the US and many other OECD countries (see Appendix B for international pension tax arrangements). Not only would equity and resource allocation be improved, but also adequacy of the retirement saving would greatly increase. The simplicity and therefore administration of tax arrangements could also be improved at the same time by rolling up past grandfathering (for a history of superannuation tax arrangements, see Appendix C). The economic arguments for a benefit tax are outlined in Appendix D. Removing the earnings tax would be necessary, otherwise income would effectively be taxed twice. In addition, removing the earnings tax might dampen the incentive to retire early. It is when retirement is a viable option that the earnings tax bites most severely, reducing the lifetime reward for working another year (Kingston 1997). Given the recent changes under business tax reform, allowing shareholders with no net taxable income to receive refundable imputation credits, it seems appropriate that pensions funds should be able to retain the refundable imputation credits4. Removing the earnings tax from voluntary contributions would also be required. This would put deducted and undeducted contributions on a level playing field with regard to the incidence of tax paid. In essence, it would allow both types of contribution to be taxed on a consumption tax basis5. Deducted contributions would be tax exempt on contributions, tax exempt on earnings and taxed on the benefit (EET). Undeducted would be the reverse, taxed on contributions, tax exempt on earnings and tax exempt on benefits (TEE). A benefit tax reduces the distortion that exist between the two largest investments that Australians are likely to make in their lifetime — housing and superannuation. Owner occupied housing is currently taxed in a manner resembling a consumption tax at marginal tax rates — a house is purchased with net income and no tax is payable on imputed rental income or capital gains. Efficiency would therefore be greatly improved by taxing housing and superannuation in a similar manner. Such a policy would potentially reduce over investment in housing. Taxing retirement benefits is preferred to taxing contributions for two reasons. Firstly, taxing benefits gives rise to a perceived incentive to the individual, thereby encouraging them to save. Secondly, taxing benefits at the personal tax rate encourages individuals to take income streams over a lump sum. Taking a lump sum at retirement would subject the entire amount to personal income tax rates. Taking an income stream would defer tax until the money is withdrawn to fund consumption. Taxing super at personal income tax rates would also reduce the exposure of superannuation to political risk. Using income tax rates makes it much more difficult for any Government to change taxes on retirement saving unless income tax rates are also changed. Pension funds should retain refundable imputation credits for three reasons: i) annuity/pension business has it at the moment ii) refundable credits are really a way of correcting taxation already incurred and avoiding double taxation, and iii) to treat fairly super funds that invest via companies. If a super fund owned a property directly, it would pay no tax on rental income. If it owned a company which owned the property, the company pays tax on the rental, and the super fund loses out unless it has refundable imputation credits. 5 When earnings are not taxed, there is an equivalence between a benefit tax and a contribution tax when levied at the same rate. This equivalence is exploited under an expenditure tax. 4 10 Adopting a benefit tax allows the removal of RBLs and the tax free threshold on lump sums (alternatively indexing of the threshold could be removed). The Maximum Deductible Contributions (MDC) limits might be required to prevent excessive money going into super. 2.3 Addressing the revenue shortfall Replacing the contribution and earnings taxes on superannuation would substantially reduce Government revenue. Adopting a withholding tax on contributions harnessed with a tax on withdrawals (a benefit tax) could partly address this shortfall. The combined impact of the two taxes leaves the retiree in the same net position as if they were only taxed on benefits at marginal rates. Taxing the contributions or the benefits is equivalent if the tax on investment earnings is removed (the principles of this are outlined in Appendix E). This equivalence is exploited by the withholdings tax, because some of the revenue can be brought forward and leave the retiree with the same outcome as if they had been taxed on benefits only. In its pure form, the equivalence can be achieved by applying the benefits tax at a progressive rate, less the withholding tax rate, say set at 10%, on a “grossed up” base. The gross up is required to neutralise the impact on tax revenue of the reduction in payout caused by the withholding tax. Some simple estimates reported in Table 1 compare the current tax arrangement with a benefits tax over 10, 15 and 20 years. The timeframe chosen is relevant for the baby boomer generation, for which the oldest cohort is currently 56 and the youngest 36 years of age. Focusing on SG contributions made over the next 10 years by a man on average earnings, these should reach $42,361 (in addition to what is already in their account) with no change to tax policy. If a benefit tax (with a withholding tax rate of 10%) is adopted, the super balance would grow to $45,976 in today’s dollars, an improvement of 9%. The advantage of tax free compound interest can be seen for someone with an additional 20 years of saving. The superannuation benefit increases by 12%. Table 1: Estimates of the additional saving that can be achieved under a benefit tax: real dollars 9% SG % change Current tax Benefits tax 10 years $42,361 $45,976 9% 15 years $70,865 $78,038 10% 20 years $105,495 $117,938 12% Assumptions: Current tax arrangements assume an effective fund earnings tax of 8% and contributions taxes of 15%; the benefits tax arrangement assumes a 10% withholding tax on contributions. The discount rate is inflation, assumed to be 3%; wages growth 4% and a nominal earnings rate of 7% nominal. The calculations assume a male on AWOTE. The estimates are not net of final tax. No fees and charges are assumed. 2.4 Simplification Simplification of superannuation tax arrangement is also desirable. One of the biggest causes of the complexity is use of ‘grandfathering’. In almost each case where tax rules for super have changed, selected amounts have continued to be treated under the old rules. This results in 11 very complex administration because the selected amounts treated under the old rules have to be tracked over time. It also creates complex financial planning strategies to take advantage of the old rules. The transition to a benefit tax could be combined with a simple procedure to eliminate the need for further “grandfathering”. This avoid the need for new grandfathering. A simplification method outlined in Doyle et al (1999) looked at crystalising the value of past tax arrangements. The Institute of Actuaries (1998) has proposed a similar approach6. It involves a calculation of the value of past tax arrangements on each member’s account balance at a certain date. At this point, The tax liability would be preserved in the member’s account and carried forward (at an indexed rate) to the point of retirement; or The tax liability could be paid to the Government, which would go some way to addressing the revenue shortfall expected with a benefit tax. Estimating the value of past tax benefits would have to either assume a lump sum benefit, or an income stream payout, or a combination of both. 6 12 3. Adequacy and additional super savings 3.1 Introduction Most developed economies subscribe to social values that imply income support for the poor, especially the old poor. As such they might define a minimum retirement income benefit which is provided through the first pillar, or safety net. This benefit is usually some prescribed relationship with a poverty measure. Australia is no exception, and the aged pension acts as a social welfare safety net that is quite generous by international standards. However, the question of what is adequate for an average individual retiree or couple is not addressed by most retirement saving systems around the world. However, one would expect that the objectives of a retirement incomes policy, which mandates workers to make contributions, should address the question of what is an adequate retirement income. Because this has not been clearly defined here in Australia, the concept of adequacy and the overall policy objectives are somewhat imprecise. With a change towards greater personal responsibility for retirement saving, Australians are becoming increasingly aware that they will have to fund more of their retirement. What is not clear is if people are aware of how much they will need to save for their retirement. What is an adequate retirement income for people to be aiming for, and how much do they need to save to achieve this? There are significant differences between what an individual and a community might think is a “sufficient” replacement rate. The community might view a sufficient retirement income as private saving which provides an income stream equivalent to the aged pension. On the other hand, an individual may view a sufficient retirement income as an amount that will allow them to consume a similar pattern of goods and services in retirement to that which they consumed while working. 3.2 The replacement rate The adequacy of a retirement income reflects a standard of living, which can viewed in terms of replacement rates — the relationship between post retirement and pre retirement incomes or expenditures. A basic principle of a retirement savings program should allow retirees to maintain a reasonable proportion of their standard of living experienced during working life. A replacement rate can be expressed in two ways. First is the ratio of retirement income, expressed as an income stream, to income earned in the final year of employment. This replacement rate is a measure of the extent to which retirement income replaces working life income before tax is taken out. Alternatively, it can be expressed as a ratio of pre retirement expenditure to post retirement expenditure. That is, how much of your pre retirement consumption bundle of goods and services can you afford in retirement? Research by the Government shows that the combination of Aged pension and a contribution to super at 9% over a full working life should replace roughly 60% of a working income on a before tax basis (Willis 1995). Alternatively this could be shown to replace about 80% of preretirement disposable income. It is generally accepted that a 100% replacement rate is not required as retirees no longer incur work related expenses. 13 The bottom line, however, is that the required replacement rate depends on individual’s circumstances, such as family size, home ownership and life-style aspirations in retirement. For example, if the individual does not expect to own their home at retirement, then a higher replacement rate will be necessary. 3.3 What the studies show: Adequacy and retirement benefits Estimates by the Government and academics show that a combination of superannuation and Aged pension can deliver adequate levels of retirement income to low and middle income earners7. However, this result depends heavily on the availability if the age pension. About two thirds of the retirement income comes from superannuation and the remainder from the aged pension. This translates to just over 5 time average earnings being saved in super, which is over $250,0008. If superannuation alone was to fund a 60% replacement rate, around $410,000 (about 9 x average earnings) would be needed which requires more than a 9% contribution over a long term. Yet looking at how much is being saved in superannuation, the results point to a major shortfall between the expectations of retirees and the reality. Many baby boomers in particular are likely to retire with much lower standards of living relative to their working life. The latest AMP-NATSEM Income and Wealth Report (May 2002) analyses the income and wealth of people aged between 50 and 64. This is a significant group of people, both in size (2.7 million people) and accumulated wealth (an average of $240,000 per person). While the average accumulated wealth of this group is almost double the national average, most of that wealth is tied up in their family home. The average superannuation balance for 50-64 year olds is just $56,000 (just over 1 x average earnings). Relatively low average balances are understandable in this context because widespread superannuation coverage did not become a reality until the mid 1990s, when the oldest of this group were in their mid-50s. While $56,000 sounds like a good amount of money, it needs to be seen in perspective. A $56,000 lump sum paid by a 65 year old male into an allocated annuity will provide an income of only $100 a week up to age 80, which is just short of an average 65 year old male’s life expectancy9. If paid into a life annuity the income is much less, at $66 a week. Over time the superannuation balances and therefore payouts for the baby boomer generation should increase. However, looking at Government estimates on average superannuation payouts at retirement, baby boomers are a long way off retiring with substantial amounts of superannuation. They show that real average age payouts will rise from $62,000 per person in See Dawkins 1992 and Willis 1995; and Bateman et al. 1996 Average weekly ordinary time earnings (AWOTE) for a male is just over $47,000 p.a. 9 Quotes prepared by AMP’s Allocated Annuity calculator, based on an annual payment of $5,200 paid yearly from a $56,000 lump sum with no undeducted contributions, no invalidity component and no capital gains tax exempt component. There is no lump sum withdrawal from the allocated annuity. Assumes a 7% per annum gross of tax investment return (prescribed by ASIC). 7 8 14 2001 to $77,000 in June 2005, $97,000 in June 2010 and $135,000 in June 2020 (Kemp 2000). These are a long way off 5 time average earnings. The evidence suggests that the baby boomers need to do a lot more saving for their retirement, and quickly. Relying on the 9% SG contribution and aged pension is not enough for this group. 3.4 Adequacy for self employed The self employed represent around 10 % of the Australian workforce, or approximately 857,200 people (ABS 1997b). Superannuation coverage at any level remains voluntary for this group. Retirement saving is encouraged through tax incentives which include a 100% tax deduction for the first $3,000 contributed to super, with additional contributions only receiving a 75% tax deduction (up to age based limits). The threshold is expected to be increased to $5,000 as of 1 July 2002. This will be the first increase since 1988. It is difficult to estimate how well the tax incentives have worked in encouraging the self employed to voluntarily save for retirement. Financial planners suggest that most self employed people only make contributions up to the $3,000 threshold. To encourage greater savings by the self employed, the tax free threshold on superannuation contributions (set to rise to from $3,000 to $5,000) should be indexed to average earnings. This allows the threshold to move automatically year to year, rather than on an ad hoc basis. Encouraging this group to save more is important. Relying on the sale of a business for retirement income has a high level of risk associated with it, as it relies on the business being successful, and the expected value of the business being realised on sale10. As a result, self employed people are more exposed than employees to the risk of retiring with less funds than anticipated. 3.5 Adequacy for women and those not in the work force An important issue concerns the treatment of women within the superannuation structure. Lack of compulsion and preservation rules meant that many women did not have super before 1992. Women are seen as relatively disadvantaged by the Superannuation Guarantee because it is an earnings related accumulation scheme, and women on average earn less than men throughout their working lives. They tend to be concentrated in relatively low paid occupations, more likely to work part time and have broken work histories. This is partly why it is women who will be adversely effected by changing the minimum income threshold for super contributions from $450 per month to $1,350 per quarter. Many self employed persons rely on their business to provide for their retirement rather than contributing to a superannuation fund, and usually reject the notion of compulsory superannuation on this basis. This position has been entrenched with the policy changes allowing the use of a business as the source of retirement income, with the capital gains on the sale of a business being tax free (up to certain limits) if the funds are used for retirement purposes 10 15 Further, women often retire earlier than men and have a greater life expectancy, so that the (generally smaller) superannuation accumulation has to last longer. Finally, there is no requirement that, in the case of a couple, pensions with reversion be purchased with superannuation retirement benefits. 3.6 Incentives to contribute more to super As part of addressing the adequacy of retirement incomes, particularly for baby boomers approaching retirement within the next 20 years, additional contributions are needed. Salary sacrificing is a very effective way of increasing superannuation11. This is a voluntary measure, where employees can ask their employers to make higher contributions in lieu of part of their salary. This allows the money to go into a super fund on a pre-tax basis 12. However, there are Maximum Deductible Contribution (MDC) limits on the amount that the employer can make on behalf of their employees (these are also known as age based limits). For this financial year, the MDC for someone under 35 is $11, 912; for those aged between 35-49, $33,087; and for those over 50, $80, 054. The MDC for those under 50 should be set at a much higher rate. This would enable younger people to make a significant contribution to their super and take advantage of long term compound interest. It also enables women who expect to take leave from the workforce to make a significant contribution to their super while working. Outside employer arrangements, voluntary saving is an important avenue to increase retirement funding. Those who are likely to benefit most are those nearing retirement, those without access to salary sacrificing opportunities, and people with broken work patterns. Voluntary contributions are made from after tax income and are not eligible for a tax deduction (except under certain circumstances for self employed people). However, in order to make these contributions, the member has to satisfy the fund trustee that they are in the workforce, or have been within the last 2 years. A person can make voluntary contributions of behalf of their spouse as long as the spouse is under 6513. The Government could increase the take up of voluntary saving by adopting two measures. First, is an incentive program along the lines of the co contribution, and second, making it easier for anyone, whether working or not, to make a voluntary contribution. 3.6.1 Extending the co contribution The Government has already outlined in the 2002-03 Budget an incentive for employees to save more in super. They offers to match up to $1,000 of voluntary contributions for those on annual incomes of less than $20,000. The matching contribution phases out as incomes increase, cutting out all together for those on more than $32,500 per annum. Only those with an employment link will be eligible for the co-contribution. See AMP SuperTrends 1997, which shows that salary sacrificing is the most tax effective means of saving and can significantly increase account balances. 12 These are treated as deducted employer contributions. 13 The spouse must be non –working and legally married to the contributor. 11 16 Extending the co-contribution to those with an assessable annual income of $60,000 (the highest income tax threshold), would provide an incentive for employees to make additional superannuation contributions. The co-contribution could remain capped at $1,000 for those on less than $20,000, reducing by $0.025 per extra dollar of income, up to the $60,000 threshold. For example, a male earning an assessable annual income of $47,000 who made $1,000 of voluntary contributions would be eligible for a co contribution of $325. The Association of Superannuation Funds (ASFA) have proposed a similar measure in their 2002-03 pre-Budget submission. Their proposal is estimated to cost less than $50 Million p.a14. The proposal outlined here would be similar in cost. Table 2 shows by how much a co-contribution would add to a final superannuation benefit under the current and proposed withholding tax arrangements. Assuming that over the next 10 years, SG contributions alone would add $42,361 to a final retirement benefit for a male on average weekly earnings, a $1,000 contribution matched by a co-contribution of $325 would add $13,267 to the benefit. In other words, in the next 10 years, they could add another 31% to their retirement saving on top of their SG contributions over the same period. Table 2: Estimates of the co-contribution on the final superannuation benefit: real dollars Current tax arrangement 9% SG Co cont % change Benefit tax arrangement 9% SG Co cont % change 10 years $42,361 $13,267 31% $45,976 $13,622 30% 15 years $70,865 $20,472 29% $78,038 $21,371 27% 20 years $105,495 $28,299 27% $117,938 $30,075 26% Assumptions: The calculations for current tax arrangements assume an effective fund earnings tax of 8% and contributions taxes of 15%; for a benefits tax a 10% withholding tax on contributions is assumed. The inflation rate used to discount the flows is assumed to be 3% and wages growth 4% and an annual interest of 7% nominal. The calculations assume a male on AWOTE. The co-contribution is not indexed. Over a longer period, the value of the co-contribution and therefore the percentage change reduces because it is not indexed. The proportions under the benefit tax follow that of the current tax arrangements, although their absolute value is higher15. 3.6.2 Making it easier for anyone to make a voluntary contribution Taking in to account the Government’s recent election commitments relating to voluntary superannuation (first child tax rebate, super for children, increasing the age for voluntary contributions from 70 to 75), access to superannuation will be much improved. Although access will still be restricted to certain groups. Because the co-contribution is not indexed, the value of the incentive declines in real terms over time, which also reduces the cost to Government over time. 15 Because the contributions are made out of after tax income they are treated as ‘undeducted contributions’. Hence, the earnings tax is the only difference between the current tax and benefits tax result. 14 17 The Government should widen access to super even further, allowing anyone between the ages of 18 and 75 to make undeducted voluntary contributions, regardless of their employment or spouse status. This would avoid complex rules being designed to classify who can and cannot make contributions. It would also simplify the fund trustees’ role in determining who could and could not make voluntary contributions, particularly in relation to satisfying work test criteria. This will be beneficial for older workers who might wish to move in and out of the workforce once they have retired from full time work, but wish to save more for their retirement. Recent figures indicate that Australians are voluntarily contributing to their retirement savings. It is estimated that in 2000-01, 44% of total contributions to superannuation were voluntary employee contributions, up from 23% in 1995-96 (APRA 2002). Data also suggests that the proportion of employees making voluntary superannuation contributions rises with income (see Table 3). Table 3: Voluntary contributions to super by income— 2000 Annual income % making contributions Of this group, the level of weekly contribution Under $20 $20 - $39 $40 to $59 + $60 $1 - $19,999 $20,000 $39,999 $40,000 $59,999 $60,000 $79,000 $80,000 $99,999 $100,000 + 8.6% 23.7% 43.9% 48.5% 44.0% 39.5% 35.7% 21.7% 10.0% 11.5% 28.3% 35.1% 12.7% 8.4% 13.2% 25.9% 26.8% 21.3% 7.6% 12.4% 23.6% 43.4% 8.4% 10.1% 16.8% 51.3% 6.5% 10.0% 9.6% 61.1% Source: ABS 6360.0 By encouraging those who can, to make additional contribution, should go some way to addressing the expected pressures on future Government Budgets in relation to aged pensions, aged care and health expenditures. If the future expenditure issues are not addressed, then it will be the younger generations who will be under pressure to fund retirees needs. Introducing measures that encourage baby boomers (as well as younger generations) to fund their own retirements today should be supported, as it also allows the cost of these incentives to be spread across today’s tax payers. 18 4. Making income streams more attractive to retirees 4.1 Introduction Complying annuities (term life expectancy and lifetime annuities) must offer guaranteed returns to retirees. As a result, the underlying capital is generally invested in conservative assets, which in turn reduces the retirement income payable to the retiree. AMP strongly recommends that the legislation be changed to allow these products to offer non guaranteed rates of return, thus allowing retirees to benefit from an investment in diversified growth assets. This will give retirees the opportunity for capital growth and potentially higher incomes, which in turn reduces eligibility to the Aged pension and saves the Government money. The manner in which retirees take their super will effect the overall adequacy of their retirement income. Occupational retirement schemes in many OECD countries require the payout to be taken as a pension, with limited access to lump sums. This is not the case in Australia, where it is and always has been the norm to take a lump sum. This is possibly the biggest single downfall of Australia’s retirement system. APRA statistics show that only 20% of superannuation payouts in 2001 were taken directly as a pension as seen in Table 4. The remaining 80% were taken as a lump sum payment. However, a lump sum payout can be rolled over into an annuity at a later stage. Therefore, looking at total income stream sales of $8.4bn in 2001, the proportion of superannuation being used to purchase income streams increases to 27% (Plan for Life 2002) . Table 4: Pension and lump sum payments from superannuation funds for 2001 Type of Scheme Lump Sum Payments Pension Payments Proportion of lump Aust$ million Aust$ million sum payments Public Sector 7,170 3,628 % 66% Industry 1,570 70 96% Corporate 2,887 463 86% Retail 10,958 2,084 84% Small Funds 2,008 63 97% Total 24,593 6,308 80% Source: APRA statistics, March. 2002 The tendency to take a lump sum might be partly fueled by relatively low superannuation balances (as reported on in section 3). Therefore, retirees consider taking the lump sum and paying off debt or purchasing a new car or household goods as being wise use of the money. Nevertheless, benefits are expected to grow and the Government should aim to ensure that retirement savings are used for the purpose of providing an income. Making an income stream purchase compulsory at retirement would ensure that super is used to provide a retirement income. This is unlikely to happen as the baby boomers and therefore the Government would not support such a policy. Therefore, the package of incentives (tax 19 and social security) used to encourage an income stream purchase needs to be strong and well targeted. There is a range of tax and social security incentives for income streams. Income streams purchased with superannuation money (within the RBLs) are eligible for the annuity tax offset of 15%. In terms of social security treatment, both lifetime and life expectancy annuities (when these meet certain conditions they are called complying annuities) are exempt from the assets means test. Income derived from all three product types is tested under approximately the same concessional treatment. Complying annuities also provide access to the Pension RBL which has enhanced tax concessions on benefits. 4.2 Breathing life into complying annuities Australians have shown little preference for complying annuities, despite their favourable RBL and social security rules Only 4% of income stream sales in 2001 went into complying annuities (more detail on the Australian income stream market is outlined in Appendix F). There are several factors which give rise to their unpopularity. Complying annuities must provide a guaranteed rate of return to investors. The capital backing the annuities are therefore generally invested long term in conservative assets (bonds and cash). The result is a very low income for the retiree. Times of low interest rates make it unattractive to “lock into” a guaranteed long term investment. A further disadvantage of lifetime complying annuities is the loss of capital to the estate on death. The longest that the capital can be guaranteed for is 10 years, which is less than most retirees life expectancy. On the other hand, a complying life expectancy annuity allows the capital to be returned to the estate on death. Regardless, complying annuities have some attractive features: - they are not commutable, they last for at least life expectancy, and they are designed to drawdown capital. Allocated annuities and pensions are the most popular type of income stream with retirees, accounting for 90% of sales in 2001. These products give the retiree investment choice and allow them to choose the amount of income they can draw out (within limits). On death, the remaining balance of the fund is returned to the family. However, the allocated annuity can also leave the retiree with no income if they live past their life expectancy. They also allow leakage of funds into a lump sum, as the pension/annuity can be cashed in at any time. AMP proposes that complying annuities (being life expectancy and the lifetime annuities) would be much more attractive products to retirees if they were able to invest in a range of assets as chosen by the retiree. First, this would allow the providers to remove the rate of return guarantee from the product and pass the investment risk and rewards through to the retiree, making the annuity cheaper as a result. Second, retirees would have investment choice, allowing them to select assets according to their risk preference. Third, this would allow retirees to benefit from a long term investment in growth assets, with the potential for capital growth and therefore improved retirement income. It also avoids retirees having to lock in at low rates of return. 20 Enabling retirees to take advantage of growth assets and potentially receive higher incomes would reduce eligibility to Aged pension payments, in turn saving the Government money. Allowing complying annuities to invest in growth assets would also be beneficial to the wider economy, given a large pool of funds would remain in diversified assets rather than flowing towards fixed interest at the point of retirement16. IFSA and ARISA have proposed similar variants to AMP. However, the IFSA model only applies to an income stream that last for average life expectancy. With the trend to living longer, anyone living past their average life expectancy would run out of money under the IFSA proposal, falling onto the aged pension. For this reason, products that cater for longevity should be also be given preferential treatment. The complying status of an annuity requires that the income from year to year cannot be less than the previous year and any increase cannot be more than the rate of inflation (+1%) or a fixed rate of escalation. An annuity which experiences volatility associated with the underlying asset returns can result in income which can change from year to year by more than is allowed under the regulations. 16 21 5. References APRA (2002), Superannuation Trends - December Quarter 2002, Sydney ASFA (2002), 2002-03 Pre – Budget Submission, March 2002. Bateman, H. (1998), Economic Aspects of Mandated national Retirement Income Schemes, PhD Thesis, University of New South Wales. Bernheim, D. (1994), “Do Households Appreciate their Financial Vulnerabilities?”, Mimeograph, Princeton University. Commonwealth (2002), 2002-03 Budget, AGPS, Canberra Dawkins, J. (1992), Security in Retirement: Planning for Tomorrow Today, June 1992, AGPS, Canberra. Dixon, J. (1982), “Provident Funds in the Third World: A Cross-National Review”, Public Administration and Development, Vol.2, 325-344. Doyle, S., Kingston, G. and Piggott, J. (1999), “Taxing Super”, Australian Economic Review, Vol. 32, No. 3 (September). Hamilton, Bob and Whalley, John (1985), “Tax Treatment of Housing in a Dynamic Sequenced General Equilibrium Model”, Journal of Public Economics, 27 (2), July, 15775. Hamilton, J.H. (1987), “Taxation, Saving and Portfolio Choice in a Continuous Time Model”, Public Finance, XXXXII, 2, 264-284. Harding, A. and Kelly, S. (2002), “Live Long & Prosper?: the income and wealth of those about to retire” , The AMP - NATSEM Income & Wealth Report, Issue 2, May 2002, Sydney. Institute of Actuaries of Australia – Simple Superannuation (tax reform) Taskforce (1998), “Discussion Paper on Superannuation Tax Reform and Simplification”, Mimeo. Kemp, R. (2000) “Speech by Senator the Hon. Rod Kemp, Assistant Treasurer” at the Conference of Major Superannuation Funds, Ashmore, Queensland, 29 March, 2000 Kingston, G.H. (1996), “Efficient Timing of Retirement”, Mimeograph, University of New South Wales. Kingston, G.H. and Piggott, J. (1993), “A Ricardian Equivalence Theorem for the Taxation of Pension Funds”, Economics Letters, 42, 399-403. 22 Johnson, P. (1992), “The Taxation of Occupational and Private Pensions in Western Europe: in Mortensen, J. (ed), The Future of Pensions in the European Community, Brasseys, UK, 133-150. Merton, R.C. (1969), “Lifetime Portfolio Selection Under Uncertainty: The Continuous Time Case”, Review of Economics and Statistics, 51, 247-257. Mitchell, O.S. and Fields, G. (1984), “The Economics of Retirement Behaviour”, Journal of Labor Economics, 2, 84-105. Plan for Life Research (2002), The Allocated Pension Report, issue 38, March 2002. Willis, R. (1995), Saving for our Future, May 1995, AGPS, Canberra. 23 Appendix A A: Background on Australia’s retirement saving arrangements: A.1 Introduction The nature of retirement saving in Australia has undergone tremendous change over the past 15 years, most notably due to the introduction of compulsory superannuation. Prior to this time, policies for retirement income had mainly focused on the provision of a means tested public Aged pension and tax concessions for voluntary superannuation saving. Putting this in the World Bank three pillars context, Australia essentially relied on the first and third pillars of retirement saving. This put it at odds with most other OECD countries where there were long standing compulsory occupational linked retirement saving scheme. That was, until the mid 80s when productivity award superannuation was introduced, leading to the Superannuation Guarantee in 1992. If traditional retirement funding arrangements were to continue, that is, to rely primarily on the Aged pension, the increasing proportion of retirees would place significant pressure on public funding requirements. This pressure would be even greater if the rate of pension was increased due to lobbying from retirees. Combined with this, retirees are also living longer and therefore require pension payments over longer periods. Increased aged care and health care costs further increase the pressure on Government finances. Compulsory superannuation combined with tighter preservation rules has significantly increased coverage of the workforce. Prior to the introduction of the SG, less than a third of the private sector workforce received superannuation contributions. On the other hand, public sector participation was much higher due to it being a condition of employment. It is estimated that 86.7 % of all employees (over 8.8 million full time and part time workers) have superannuation (see Table 5). Coverage of the nation’s workforce is even higher when the self employed are considered. Table 5: Superannuation coverage of labour force — 2000 . Male Female Persons Full time 91% 93% 92% Part time 62% 76% 72% Total 88% 85% 87% Source: ABS 6360.0 Coverage of full time workers has not changed significantly in the last few years, hovering at about 92 %. Coverage of part time workers, however, has improved markedly from 54 % in 1992 to 72 percent in 2000. 24 Over the last 10 years, the funds under management in superannuation have increased markedly as shown in Figure 1. Over a ten year period, funds under management have grown by $363 billion, or 220 % between June 1992 and December 2001. Figure 1: Assets and funds under management in superannuation: 1992-2001 $b 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Jun-92 Jun-93 Jun-94 Jun-95 Jun-96 Jun-97 Jun-98 Jun-99 Jun-00 Jun-01 Source: APRA The structure of the industry has changed over this time too as seen in Table 6. In the mid 1990s, the public sector, corporate and retail sectors of the superannuation industry were equally responsible for three quarters of the assets in super. As of last year, the retail sector by itself held one third of all super assets. Growth has also been high in superannuation funds with less than 5 members. Table 6: Superannuation assets by fund type June 1995 market share $ billion % Corporate 47 21% Industry 12 5% Public sector 59 26% Retail 53 24% SMSFs & other 19 8% Other* 35 16% Balance 225 *Other includes the annuities and life office reserves Source: APRA March 2002 December 2001 $ billion 73 47 110 174 94 34 528 market share % 14% 9% 21% 33% 18% 6% A.2 Why the interest in retirement incomes? Key social developments have combined to inject urgency into developing a sustainable retirement incomes policy not only in Australia, but worldwide. One of these is demographic transition. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (2000) predicts that the Australian population is projected to grow from 19 million in 1999 to between 24.1 and 28.2 million in 2051, and to between 22.6 and 31.9 million in 2101. 25 While the population is growing over this time, so is the composition of the population changing. As can be seen from Figure 2, the ratio of those aged between 15 and 65 (the major source of income tax revenue) to the entire population will fall slightly, from 67% to 60%, while the proportion of the population aged over 65 will increase significantly, from 12% to 24 %. This results in an increased aged dependency ratio, defined here as the ratio of those above 65 to the working population between 15 and 64. This ratio is expected to more than double, from 18% in 1999 to 41 % in 2051. Figure 2: Estimate of the Australian population, 1999-2051* $ million 80% 30.0 70% 25.0 60% 20.0 50% 40% 15.0 30% 10.0 20% 5.0 10% 0% 0.0 1999 2001 2006 2010 population 2021 % over 65 2031 2041 2051 % 15-64 Based on series 1 assumptions. Source: ABS (2000) 3222.0 Compulsory private superannuation saving will go some way to restraining public expenditure on the Aged pension in the long term. This is because over time, more retirees will move from being eligible for a full rate pension to a part rate pension, thereby reducing pension outlays. Estimates by Rothman (1998) indicate these savings to be in the order of 0.6% of GDP over the next 20 years and 1.5% over the next 50 years (see Table 7). Estimates by the Department of Family and Community Services indicate that in 2000, around 83% of people of aged pension age are receiving the Aged pension of which 53% are receiving full entitlements, and a further 20% are on Veterans Affairs entitlements. Only 17% of retirees of aged pension age are self funded retirees. From a political view, the ‘baby boom’ generation is considered to be a powerful lobby group. Once in their retirement phase, there is a risk that they could lobby for higher benefits to raise their living standards, particularly if they are heavily reliant on Aged pension for their income. Estimates by the Retirement Income Modeling Unit show that an Aged pension at 30% of AWOTE would be costly to the Government (compared to the current level of Aged pension at 25% of AWOTE), increasing costs by 2.3% of GDP over the long term (Rothman 1998). 26 Table 7: Projected costs of Aged pension under various scenarios — % GDP* Base (25%) 2.99 1998-99 2.94 1999-2000 2.94 2000-01 3.06 2010-11 3.55 2020-21 4.07 2030-31 4.49 2040-41 4.48 2049-50 * Source: Rothman 1998, table 4 page 9 30 % 2.99 3.45 3.45 3.61 4.22 4.86 5.33 5.32 Universal pension 3.68 3.61 3.62 3.81 4.72 5.79 6.38 6.44 No SG 2.99 2.94 2.94 3.08 3.67 4.33 4.76 4.76 Australians are also living longer and retiring earlier. People reaching 65 today can expect to live a lot longer than those who were 65 in the 1970s and it is likely this trend will continue for the baby boomers. While average life expectancies for older men remained fairly stable throughout the first three-quarters of the 20th Century, they had improved significantly over the last 25 to 30 years as seen in Figure 3. Analysis shows that between 1901 and 1972, the average life expectancy of a 65 year old male increased by almost one year, from 11.3 years to 12.2 years. However, average life expectancies for older men had increased since then by four years, to 16.2 years. The life expectancies for 65 year old women has increased steadily throughout the 20th Century, from 12.8 years in 1900 to 19.8 years at the end of the Century, including an increase also of four years since 1972. Figure 3: Life expectancy of a male and female aged 65: 1881 - 1997 Life Expectancy years 25.00 Female age 65 Male age 65 20.00 15.00 10.00 5.00 1881-1890 1901-1910 1932-1934 1953-1955 1965-1967 1975-1977 1985-1987 1995-1997 Source: Australian Life Tables 1995-97 27 The most likely factors for the significant improvement in mortality rates are major developments in medical diagnosis and treatment, and the improved lifestyle that the postDepression generation has enjoyed. In addition there is also a trend towards earlier retirement (now 60 for men and lower for women). Other OECD countries are experiencing similar trends. The average retirement age might stay around 60, based on changing attitudes to older workers and Government initiatives to keep older people at work. However, factors such as the spread of occupational superannuation will tend to make early retirement more attractive for some. Early retirement means that people will have to support themselves for longer in retirement and there is less time over which to accumulate savings. This is really important given the effect of compounding in later years. The longer the compounding process runs the more powerful the accumulation of saving. This is an important issue when considering adequacy. The combined effect of retiring earlier and living longer means that baby boomer generation may find they are in retirement for almost as long as they were at work. Therefore, what saving they have will need to last a long time. 28 B: International pension taxes Appendix B The taxation arrangements for retirement savings in most OECD countries are based on consumption tax principles. That is, retirement savings are only taxed when taken out of the retirement saving scheme to be used for consumption purposes. Essentially, the contributions and earnings are not taxed, while the benefits are taxed at the individual’s personal income tax rate. Returns on the retirement saving investment (usually referred to as fund earnings) are untaxed under such arrangements because otherwise, income would effectively be taxed twice, and the costs of future consumption increased. However, it is possible to tax pensions at three points: on contributions, on fund earnings, and on benefits. Some countries tax contributions, but only a few tax earnings. Table 8 reports current practice for a number of countries. Australia taxes retirement saving at all three points. All are taxed concessionally, so it is less the burden of tax than its complexity that is the difficulty here17. However, the flat rate structure does introduce inequities. Taxing at three points does not necessarily make the system complex. Rather, complexity arises from the many changes that have occurred over the last 15 years, and the associated grandfathering provisions. These are discussed below. Although there are circumstances where effective tax rates can be higher than 48.5% as acknowledged by the Government in the 2002 Federal Budget. 17 29 Table 8: Taxation of Private Pensions in Selected Countries Country Income tax treatment of contributions Fund Income Contribution Earnings Pensions Lump sums Australia Employer conts tax deductible taxed at 15% to 30% taxed at 15%; tax credits available on Australian equities Taxed, with 15% rebate Taxed at 15% above threshold Belgium Tax deductible Taxed Taxed (with tax credit) Taxed 16.5% Canada Tax deductible Exempt Taxed Taxed Chile Tax deductible Exempt Taxed Lump sum tax Denmark Tax deductible Taxed Taxed Taxed t 40% France Tax deductible Exempt Taxed (some deductions). No lump sums Germany Employer conts tax deductible Exempt Taxed Taxed Ireland Tax deductible Exempt Taxed Taxed with some exemptions Italy Tax deductible Taxed Taxed Taxed 12.5% Japan Employer conts tax deductible Taxed Taxed Taxed Luxembourg Employer conts tax deductible Exempt Taxed Netherlands Tax deductible Exempt Taxed Taxed New Zealand No tax deduction Taxed Exempt Exempt Portugal Employer conts tax deductible Exempt Taxed (subject to specific rules) Taxed at income tax rates on 20% of benefit Spain Tax deductible Exempt Taxed Taxed Sweden Tax deductible Taxed Taxed Taxed Switzerland Tax deductible Exempt Taxed Taxed UK Tax deductible Exempt Taxed Taxed with some exceptions USA Tax deductible Exempt Taxed Taxed but eligible for concessions Exempt Exempt Taxed Taxed Singapore Sources: Benefits at at Dixon (1982), Johnson (1992), Bateman et al (2001). 30 Appendix C C: History of Australian tax arrangements Superannuation taxation arrangements have continued to evolve since the introduction of mandatory superannuation. Mostly, they are not retrospective but, rather, preserved. Combined with this, the design of superannuation taxation arrangements have been rather ad hoc in nature. The result is that the Australian superannuation taxation system is complex to administer and difficult to understand. Prior to 1983, earnings on superannuation saving were untaxed, and when taken as a lump sum, only 5 % of the total benefit was added to assessable income and taxed at the applicable marginal income tax rate. However, from July 1983, marginal tax rates were no longer used for retirement saving. The new tax arrangement introduced in 1983 was to levy a 30% flat tax on the post 1983 retirement benefit when withdrawn. This form of taxation was based on consumption tax principles, and equivalent to the taxation of retirement saving in most OECD countries. Then, in 1988, tax was levied on both contributions and benefits, bringing forward tax revenue. Known at the time as the then Prime Minister Keating’s “Magic Pudding”, the 30% benefit tax was replaced with a contribution tax of 15% and a benefit tax of 15%. This policy was sold as being nothing more than a rearrangement of the tax structure, not an increase in the overall tax take (see Piggott and Kingston 1997 for the formal proof of this equivalence). This would hold true if the earnings on retirement saving is untaxed, as the net present value of a benefit tax is equivalent to a tax on contributions at the same tax rate. Because of this equivalence, the new arrangements were estimated to raise an equivalent amount of tax in net present value terms, leaving retirees no worse off. However, a 15 % earnings tax was also introduced at this time, preventing the equivalence from holding. A tax rebate on the income derived from a retirement income stream was also introduced in 1988. It was introduced as a means of compensating retirees for the new contribution tax, while providing a tax incentive for income streams relative to lump sum benefits. The rebate rate is set at 15% of the assessable income and is only available for income streams purchased with an Eligible Termination Payout (ETP)18. The concessionality of the super tax rates has been further eroded due to the lowering of personal income taxes in 2000. For low income earners, the concession for making super contributions is marginal. Tax is now levied at three levels: — on contributions, earnings and benefits, effectively increasing the level of taxation on retirement savings. The introduction of the surcharge tax in 1997-98 has increased the effective tax rate for higher income earners. 18 To be eligible for the rebate, the retiree must be at or over the preservation age. 31 As a result of the many tax changes, the total tax payable on super has increased in real terms as seen in Figure 5. Taxes on contributions and earnings are now the fastest growing source of revenue for the Government. Over the 12 year period 1990-91 to 2002-03, superannuation taxes will have grown from just over $1 billion to over a (forecast) $4.8 billion (Commonwealth Budget Papers 2002). Figure 5: Tax revenue from superannuation funds: 1985-86 to 2002-03* $m 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 19 85 /8 6 19 86 /8 19 7 87 /8 8 19 88 /8 19 9 89 /9 0 19 90 /9 19 1 91 /9 2 19 92 /9 19 3 93 /9 4 19 94 /9 19 5 95 /9 6 19 96 /9 19 7 97 /9 8 19 98 /9 19 9 99 /0 0 20 00 /0 20 1 01 /0 2 20 02 /0 3 0 * 2000-01 and 2001-02 figures are forecasts. Source: Commonwealth budget papers 32 D: Economic impacts of pension taxation D.1 Introduction The unifying thrust of the economic theory of tax design lies in the question it poses: how to minimise, or reduce, the economic cost of resource misallocations through the whole economy which will occur as taxes distort prices and the choices of agents are adversely affected. At an abstract level, it is possible to envisage a set of taxes levied at rates which minimise these costs for a given revenue target, and where appropriate, for given equity criteria. The luxury of de novo tax design, however, is not available to policy practitioners, who must wrestle with options, which modify existing structures. Improvements (that is, changes which reduce distortionary cost), taking into account constraints imposed by unchangeable features of the tax system and equity concerns, are all that can be hoped for. Take this latter position as a starting point. Also assume that the income tax base is here to stay, and that equally, major institutional features of the income tax, particularly the tax preference to owner-occupier housing, are permanent as well. This allows us to consider what major resource allocation effects might result from alternative superannuation tax reforms, given the existing tax structure, and what might be the best of these alternatives. Perhaps the clearest resource allocation effect is the impact on aggregate saving, and the implied flow of domestic funds available for investment. Two further important effects relate to the choice of assets in the economy generally, and the retirement decision. All three are likely to be directly affected by superannuation taxation. Here we briefly review the literature on each. D.2 Aggregate saving and investment The impact of taxation on saving and coincident economic growth has a long history in public finance. It is particularly important in the present context because there are other grounds to suppose that the level of saving is sub-optimal, and the compounding effects of capital income taxation are therefore likely to be especially costly.19 A number of important papers through the 1980s have produced the result that the taxation of capital income is inimical to growth, and that the substitution of yield preserving taxation of consumption or labour leads to welfare improvement. Important references include Fullerton et al (1983), Judd (1987) and Lucas (1990).20 It is sometimes argued that many developed economies with income taxes at the center of their fiscal systems are already part way to a consumption tax reform, and that the impact of the income tax on aggregate saving and investment is overstated. Owner occupier housing, These include the existence of a publicly funded aged pension, and undersaving by some groups in the community. For analysis of this latter phenomenon, see Bernheim (1994) and Laibson (1996). A well known principle in public finance is that efficiency cost increases with the square of the tax which induces the price distortion. Compounding impacts can therefore be expected to impose disproportionately high efficiency costs. 20 Reducing capital taxes and increasing labour taxation would not necessarily make wage earners worse off, at least in absolute and long run terms. In the long run, the enlarged capital stock induced by low capital income taxation would actually drive wages up to the extent that wage earners would be better off with low capital income taxes and high wage taxes than with an equal revenue combination of high capital income taxes and low wage taxes. 19 33 which constitutes a major component of privately held wealth, is typically taxed under what is effectively an expenditure tax regime. This is because the return on capital invested in owner occupied housing (the imputed rent and the real capital gain) is not taxed. Pension accumulations are often given similar tax preference: the proposal put forward here is an example. While capital income taxation applies elsewhere, these two channels of tax preferred saving are seen as a partial move toward expenditure taxation, albeit through specific saving deductions from an income tax base, and therefore constitute a welfare improvement relative to comprehensive income taxation. D.2.1 The significance of inter-asset distortions If, however, pension saving is not given expenditure tax treatment, price distortions are introduced which adversely affect asset choice. This question has been relatively neglected in the literature. An important paper by Bob Hamilton and John Whalley (1985) suggests that a hybrid system, offering expenditure tax treatment to housing (but to no other form of saving), is dominated from an efficiency standpoint by both a pure expenditure tax regime and a comprehensive income tax regime. Using a dynamic general equilibrium model of the Canadian economy, fully taxing imputed housing income at the marginal rate applying to other capital income increases aggregate economic welfare by 0.3%. For a switch to pure consumption taxation, the estimated gain is 0.8%. That is to say, the efficiency costs of the inter-asset distortion introduced by a hybrid system can dominate the efficiency gains from the reduced price distortion on intertemporal choice. A second contribution, by Jonathon Hamilton (1987) uses Merton’s (1969) continuous time model of the life time portfolio choice and consumption decision to analyse the taxation of capital income. Two assets are modelled - one risky and one safe. Three types of capital taxes are considered: a tax levied on wealth each period; a tax on interest income, that is the returns to safe assets; and a tax on dividend income - the returns to risky assets. Hamilton then calculates the efficiency costs for these different kinds of capital taxes, relative to a consumption tax. He also models a general wealth tax. While the compensating variation (a measure of efficiency cost) for a general wealth tax is about 1 % of initial wealth, the compensating variation of an interest income tax is 3.2 %, and is dramatically higher for a dividend tax. In the latter two cases, all revenue is raised from the return to one type of asset. The static distortion from asset misallocation thus dominates the dynamic distortion from the misallocation between current and future consumption. Interestingly, although the two analyses use entirely different approaches, the Jonathon Hamilton result is consistent with the Hamilton-Whalley finding that inter-asset distortion resulting from a hybrid income expenditure tax system dominates the costs of the distortions of a comprehensive income tax. D.2.2 The retirement decision Two possible extreme approaches to the analysis of retirement are the simple one period model, where the timing of the retirement decision simply determines the amount of leisure consumed, and the life-cycle optimisation model. The first approach is not illuminating because it leaves out too much; the second tends to be intractable. A compromise put forward by Mitchell and Fields (1984) essentially collapses the life cycle model into a single period one by entering two arguments into the utility function: present 34 value of expected lifetime income and years of retirement. This allows them to take into account that lifetime financial wealth, pension benefits, and earnings including earnings on superannuation accumulations will all affect the retirement decision. Essentially, the MitchellFields retirement rule is as follows: “The optimal retirement date R* equates the marginal utility from an additional year of work with the marginal utility of one more year of leisure.” (p.87).21 In addition to considerations of financial wealth, therefore, you should, under the Mitchell-Fields rule, retire early to the extent that your circumstances involve high disutility of effort, low financial reward for work, and low life expectancy. The Mitchell Fields rule, however, is time-local. In pension tax design, the more appropriate framework is the life-cycle. This perspective is reinforced by demographic transition — pension tax design should be focused on the retirement saving decisions of the relatively young. For this group, a high net of tax return on saving (in other words, an absence of earnings taxes) is the best incentive for adequate retirement provision: the power of compound interest is crucial here. D.2.3 Implications for Superannuation Tax Design The studies cited here suggest that price distortions across assets can have much more significant effects on economic welfare than has been generally recognised and that the timing of retirement can be affected by pension taxes. What do they suggest about superannuation tax policy design? Perhaps the most important lesson to be drawn from this literature is that an expenditure tax type design, where the only tax levied is on benefits at the applicable marginal income tax rate, is likely to lead to the most efficient feasible allocation of resources in the economy. It eliminates the price distortion between present and future consumption, and between owner occupied housing and superannuation assets. Given the state of the debate in Australia, however, it may be worth considering each of the three points of superannuation taxation in turn, if only to make more concrete the economic implications of alternative tax design. It is convenient to begin with the taxation of pension fund earnings. A number of considerations suggest that the earnings from pension funds should not be taxed. First, enforced preservation funnels the individual disincentive effects of such taxation into a relatively narrow time frame late in the life cycle, where it is especially likely to induce socially inefficient retirement and saving decisions. In particular, on a compensated basis it appears likely that it will lead to earlier retirement, thus compounding the misallocation already introduced by unfunded public transfers for the aged. Second, it is likely to adversely affect asset allocation, penalising interest paying securities and tending to discourage international diversification. Further, the taxation of pension fund earnings is likely to impact relatively unfavourably on women, whose typical working lives involve early full time labour force participation, followed by broken participation patterns later in life. Kingston (1996) has re-examined the Mitchell-Fields rule in the context of a Merton based continuous time model. His more formal analysis confirms the Mitchell-Fields findings, but extends them to incorporate capital market considerations. For individuals with high risk aversion, early retirement will be preferred to the extent that capital markets are characterised by: high expected returns to risky assets, high interest rates, and low volatility of asset returns. 21 35 A concern relevant to Australia relates to the tax treatment of equities in the hands of pension funds when earnings are taxed. Dividend imputation, which credits the individual shareholder with the corporate tax paid on his behalf, effectively operates as withholding tax. This raises the question of how pension fund access to dividend imputation credits might be effected by removal of the earnings tax. Given the recent changes under business tax reform, allowing shareholders with a taxable income less than the company rate to be refunded the difference, it seems appropriate that pensions funds should be able to retain the refundable imputation credits22. The potential earnings tax base is set to increase in all developed countries, as the trend to increased fundedness continues and as demographic transaction matures. In Australia, the expanded coverage of funded occupational pension saving exacerbates this effect. The tax change proposed here will therefore be much more expensive to implement 20 years from now. If the arguments against earnings taxation are accepted, therefore, tax reform is not only desirable, but also urgent. Pension funds should retain refundable imputation credits for three reasons: i) annuity/pension business has it at the moment ii) refundable credits are really a way of correcting taxation already incurred and avoiding double taxation, and iii) it penalises super funds who invest via companies. If a super fund owned a property directly, it would pay no tax on rental income. If it owned a company which owned the property, the company pays tax on the rental, and the super fund looses out unless it has refundable imputation credits. 22 36 Appendix E E: Tax reform options — A benefit tax with a withholding tax E.1 Formal proposal for a withholding tax As already sated, pension taxed can be levied at three points in the saving cycle. Kingston and Piggott (1993) have derived conditions under which these three taxes are equivalent. They abstract from behavioural response, and are able to show that equal tax rates on contributions and benefits have equivalent impacts on tax revenues and benefits, while the tax rate required for equivalent earnings taxation varies with the time span of contributions. The equivalence of these two regimes may be formally demonstrated by considering the following two methods of taxing members of superannuation funds: 1. A benefit tax only: Tax at the payout stage only, with payouts P being treated as part of each member’s assessable income Y during his or her payout year N. 2. A withholding tax arrangement: Tax also during the accumulation phase, by means of a flat-rate withholding tax W on contributions. Let Q stand for the accumulation net of withholding taxes, and define the “grossed-up” payout Q Q / 1 W , which is treated as part of each member’s assessable income during his or her payout year N. The income tax rates applicable to payouts are defined net of the withholding tax rate. For example, if the top marginal rate, 2 say, were equal to 0.47, and if W 0.10 , then the top marginal rate on grossed-up payouts reduces to 0.47 - 0.10 = 0.37. Then the first and second methods of taxation will yield the same tax revenue in present-value terms. Formal proof Consider the following two-step progressive tax schedule, applying to total assessable income Y during the member’s payout year: Rate Bracket 0 0 0 D1 D1 D2 D2 Y 1 2 where 2 1 0 and P, Y D2 D1 0 (1) 37 If the first of the above two methods of taxing superannuation is adopted -- that is, if benefits only are taxed -- then the value of tax revenues, B, at time N is given by B 0 D1 1 D2 D1 2 P D2 (2) where N P ct 1 r N t (3) t 1 Here, ct is contributions at time t and r is the earnings rate of the fund. If the withholding-tax method is adopted, then the time N value of tax revenues, W, is given by the time N value of withholding tax revenues plus the time N value of adjusted income tax revenues. The required tax rates are as follows: 0 0 W 1 1 W 2 2 W (4) Now, Q N ct 1 W 1 r N t (5) t 1 and Q Q / 1 W P (6) so that under the proposed withholding tax regime, the time-N value of tax revenues, W, is given by W N W ct 1 r N t 0 D1 1 D2 D1 2 Q D2 (7) t 1 W P 0 W D1 1 W D2 D1 2 W P D2 (8) 0 D1 1 D2 D1 2 P D2 (9) B (10) 38 as required. If the various pension tax paradigms – contributions, earnings, benefits, and the proposed hybrid system – can be shown to be equivalent in the above sense, on what basis can one be said to be superior to others? The answer lies in the relation of pension taxation to the overall tax structure and in the implications of this interaction for economic and administrative efficiency. From an efficiency point of view, the best pension tax design is the benefit tax, levied at the prevailing marginal rate of personal income tax at the time of withdrawal. Because the progressive income tax rate is used, serious inequities are avoided. The challenge in implementing this reform in Australia is that it would imply a shortfall in current tax yield. The present proposal addresses this by exploiting the equivalence between contributions and benefits taxation noted above. It replaces the current superannuation taxes on contributions, earnings and benefits with a tax on contributions at a withholding tax rate equal to or less than the present lowest marginal tax rate of 17%. When accumulations are withdrawn, taxpayer liability is determined by applying the marginal personal income tax rate to benefits, adjusted for the withholding tax. We have derived above a simple formula for equivalent benefits taxation, which holds even when contributions vary over the accumulation period. Any withholding tax rate can be chosen; once implemented, however, the benefits tax equivalence will only hold if the withholding tax rate is not changed. Under our proposals the annuities rebate is abolished, along with the superannuation surcharge. Reasonable benefit limits (RBLs) are also removed.23 This further simplifies the existing superannuation tax regime. Rate scale progressivity implies that the impact will vary with income, and demographics suggest that the impact on women will be different than that on men. The proposed reform will tend to favour those with broken work histories, especially if they have worked full time early in life, and then withdrawn from the labour force. This is because earnings are not taxed. Income streams are favoured over lump sums. This follows from the application of the marginal tax rate schedule on withdrawals. For example, an $80,000 lump sum withdrawal faces the highest marginal tax rate on some of the payout, whereas using the $80,000 to buy an income stream would generate an annual income which is taxed at a much lower rate. In order to maintain the integrity of the retirement income policy, contribution limits could be introduced to control its abuse for tax avoidance reasons. 23 39 Appendix F F: The Australian income stream market The Australian income stream market comprises of three major product groupings: – lifetime annuities, term certain annuities, and allocated annuities and pensions (annuities are defined as those offered by life insurance companies. Collectively, allocated annuities and pensions are referred to as pensions). In Australia, lifetime and term certain annuities are collectively referred to as either traditional or immediate annuities. Term certain annuities are income streams that are payable for a fixed term, regardless of whether the annuitant dies during the term of the contract. The duration of term annuities varies from 1 year to 20 years, and they can be specified to return a proportion of the purchase value at the end of the contract: a residual capital value. Those were the payout term is equal to the life expectancy of the buyer are able to get favourable social security treatment. Lifetime annuity payouts may be fixed in nominal terms, indexed to the CPI, or escalated at a fixed rate. A guarantee period can be nominated at the time of purchase, where payments continue to be paid for a minimum period, even if the annuitant dies during this time. At first sight, the allocated annuity appears to be more like a pure investment instrument than a retirement income stream product. Its essence is that a sum of money is invested at retirement, in a portfolio over whose composition the retiree has considerable control. Both income and capital can be drawn down to meet the retiree’s needs. There are no guarantees offered by the provider, all the risk rests with the buyer. The drawdowns, however, are limited to a range, with both upper and lower bounds, depending on the life expectancy of the retiree when the pension is purchased. The maximum drawdown factor is calculated on the basis that the individual will live to their expected life span at the time of the purchase. The minimum is calculated on the basis that they will survive until the actuarial probability of survival from the date of purchase approximates zero. These “drawdown factors” apply to the account accumulation each year. Income streams can be purchased with money from superannuation money, or non super money, for example, from the sale of a house. The sales for 2001 are outlined in Table 9. Table 9: sales of Australian income streams for 2001 Super Non super Allocated Term Lifetime Total $ million $ million $ million $ million 7,613 744 83 8,440 0 1,681 84 1,765 Source: Plan for life, 2002 Allocated pensions are by far the most popular form of income stream sold in Australia. Funds under management in allocated pensions have grown from $81 million in 1991 to $32.7 40 billion by the end of 2001. In contrast, the fund under management in immediate annuities has stalled at just over $10 billion for the last three years (Plan for Life Research 2002). 41
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