SRI LANKA
Joint Assessment of Drought Impact
on Food Security and Livelihoods
15 March 2017
Implemented By: Ministry of Disaster Management, National Disaster Relief Services Centre, Disaster Management Centre and Hector
Kobbekaduwa Agrarian Research & Training Institute
Assessment Technical Lead: United Nations World Food Programme
1
BACKGROUND
Compared with the past 30 years, rainfall during the North–Eastern monsoon season in 2016 was highly erratic and far
below average in many parts of the country. More than half of the year’s total precipitation fell in May 2016, while little
rain arrived during the October-November inter-monsoon period. The consequential prolonged dry spell over the
entire country meant that one-third of the normal paddy farms were not cultivated during the main “Maha” agricultural
season (from Sept-March). Moreover, out of the total area cultivated, over 137,017 ha were destroyed due to a lack of
water for irrigation and there was further yield loss due water stress.
In December 2016, the Ministry of Disaster Management, with technical support from the World Food Programme,
conducted an analysis of secondary data on the impacts of the drought. The recommendations of the review were
submitted to the Drought Response Task Force and the Cabinet of Ministers of the Government of Sri Lanka, with the
recommendations endorsed by the Cabinet for rapid implementation by relevant line Ministries and agencies.
Following this initial review, the Inter-Ministerial Committee for Drought Response recommended to monitor the
drought’s impact on household food security and livelihoods. As such, a joint field verification exercise was conducted
by the Ministry of Disaster Management jointly with the National Disaster Relief Services Centre (NDRSC), Disaster
Management Centre (DMC) and Hector Kobbekaduwa Agrarian Research & Training Institute (HARTI), with technical
support of the United Nations World Food Programme in February 2017. UNICEF, FAO and Save the Children
partnered in the survey. The main objectives were to assess the household-level impact of the drought on the most
vulnerable areas in the ten most affected districts. The exercise also estimated the immediate needs for food security,
agriculture (inputs & seeds) and water to inform the design of potential short- medium- and long-term response
options.
KEY FINDINGS
NUMBER OF FOOD INSECURE HOUSEHOLDS BY
The 2016/17 drought is the one of the major hits in Sri DISASTER (2012-2017)
Lanka in the past five years, causing around 227,000
households to become food insecure so far in the affected
areas. Community interviews also suggest that the
households have not experienced this level of drought for 40 years
(since 1974). Food insecurity is widespread and increasing in
drought affected regions, with some areas having reached severely
deteriorated levels of food consumption and over 16 percent of
households becoming food insecure or borderline food insecure.
Food insecurity is also reported as significantly higher among femaleheaded households. Food insecure and borderline households are
also resorting to negative coping strategies such as selling livelihood
assets, taking children out of school or reducing expenditures on
health and hygiene. With the Maha harvest only concluding in
February/March, the food security status of these groups will continue to deteriorate throughout the year and until the
next harvest in March 2018. Regular monitoring of nutrition is underway and will help inform the impact and needed
responses to the drought.
Around 60 percent of the affected households lost more than one third of their expected income
during 2016/17 Maha season and all affected farming households need immediate support to compensate for
crop loss to cultivate in the 2017 Yala agricultural season due to start in May.
Farming and Agricultural labours were identified as the most affected livelihood groups in surveyed districts which
represents 70% of the affected livelihood groups. Every fifth farmer and every fourth agricultural casual laborer
has been identified as food insecure.
Access to drinking water and water quality is a major concern with one-quarter of affected households
seriously concerned about the quality of their current drinking water source.
Seeds are still a major constraint to plant the Yala 2017. Every fifth farmer affected by drought said they
had no source of paddy seed. Only 10 percent of farmers have produced their own paddy seeds for the next
season compared to more than 80 percent who usually produce seeds in the Maha season for use in the Yala.
Identification of possible seed suppliers and demarcation of current successful paddy harvests for seeds is needed.
Half of the affected population requested cash or food assistance to meet immediate needs. (27% cash and 27% food).
2
1. Food Security
Deteriorated food consumption:
Results of the assessment show that the food consumption score
(FCS) has severely deteriorated among the affected population and 16 percent of households surveyed have
either poor or borderline scores. These rates are three times higher than during normal periods in Sri
Lanka and are significantly higher than the 2012 and 2014 droughts. The worst food consumption levels were
found among casual agricultural labourers and farming communities which represent more than 75 percent of the
affected community. Out of the 10 districts assessed, four districts showed very poor food consumption levels (Mannar,
Vavuniya, Kurunegala and Moneragala).
FOOD CONSUMPTION AMONGST AFFECTED
LIVELIHOOD GROUPS
This poor food consumption is three times higher among
female headed households compared to those headed by
males. The gender aspects of the affected population, already a
major area of concern in Sri Lanka, should be carefully considered
when planning the targeting for assistance.
Loss of income and lack of income
generation opportunities: Approximately one third of
the affected population have experienced more than a 50%
reduction of their regular incomes. Therefore, the
affordability of a minimum cost of a nutritious diet has dramatically
decreased. Over 60% of the income drop is reported as a result of
total crop failure, severe yield losses and loss of livelihood.
Indebtedness was also found to be very high. Currently over 60
percent of the
households were reported to have
outstanding short-term loans. This amount is very high compared to the reported household income levels (36
percent of households earn less than 100 USD/month and 42 percent households earn less than 166 USD/month). An
estimated of span of at least two years or two successful major agricultural seasons will be required to pay back the
loans.
Exhausted food security coping capacity:
Over half of the affected population is currently
using negative coping practices to address food needs. Households are taking measures such as eating less
preferred foods, limiting portion sizes, and reducing the number of meals consumed per day. Coping capacity is
expected to worsen as the year progresses and wile prospects of the Yala harvest remain poor, and use of seriously
negative coping behaviours such as taking children out of school and selling of livelihood assets could increase as limits
of the initial coping practices are reached.
FOOD INSECURITY BY HOUSEHOLD GENDER
Increased staple food prices:
The retail price
female headed
of par-boiled long-grain rice has increased by 18 percent
since May 2016, and is currently USD 0.67/kilogram. The
terms of trade are also a concern, with the daily-wage
male headed
labour vs staple food prices further declining as a result of
the poor labour market opportunities and the increased
retail price of rice. While the outlook is unfavourable for
agricultural labourers, a reduction of taxes and relaxing of
import quotas for rice are supporting availability and helping
Further reading:
Initial Rapid Drought Assessment, 2016 (https://www.wfp.org/Sri_Lanka_Drought_Assessment).
Food security review of Sri Lanka, 2017 (http://www.wfp.org/Sri_Lanka_Food_Security_Review).
3
3%
18%
1%
0%
16%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Proportion of Households
Poor
Borderline
25%
II. Water and Sanitation
Overall, the quality of water was acceptable across the country, however 25 percent of the respondents were not
satisfied with the quality of their water, with some areas citing serious concern: 31 percent from Mannar, 34 percent
from Vavuniya and 46 percent from Kurunegala,
On the adequacy of drinking water, 41 percent of respondents claimed their water supply to be sufficient to cover their
drinking water needs, while 43 percent reported ‘some water shortages’ and another 15 per cent cited severe
shortages. Severe shortages were reported from Batticaloa (19 percent), Mannar (30 percent) and
Ampara (41 percent).
Respondents were required to state whether they accessed water from their regular source, or from an
alternative source, or both 65 per cent claimed to access water from their regular source, while 22 percent accessed
water from a non-regular source. On a district basis, 22 percent from Batticaloa were accessing water from an
alternative source, followed by 29 percent from Ampara, Moneragala (26 percent), 37 percent from
Puttalam and Kurunegala (49 percent).
SUFFICIENCY OF WATER FOR BATHING
AND WASHING
Regarding water collection for household needs, in 54 percent of the cases it
was the mother and in 22 percent of the households it was the father. In 4
per cent of the cases, the children were sent to fetch water. On a district
basis, collection of water for the needs of the household were
concentrated on the mother. This was observed extremely high in
the case of Vavuniya (65 percent), Ampara (73 percent), Mannar
(80 percent), Moneragala (84 percent) and Hambantota (88
percent). Combined with the fact that many of them are the districts that
already reported severe water shortages and had to shift to alternative
sources of water, this raises a concern on potential threat to the child’s
safety and security in mother’s absence.
On the sufficiency of water for latrine needs, 95 percent claimed water
was sufficient to clean and flush toilets before the drought conditions.
However, this dropped to 60 percent during the current drought.
Similarly, on water availability for bathing and washing, 95 per cent of
respondents reported to have had sufficient water before the drought but
now, only 52 percent said they had sufficient water for these needs.
III. Child Welfare
To capture the effect of the intensity of the
REDUCED EXPENDITURE ON CHILD’S EDUCATION DUE TO DROUGHT
drought on children, respondents were queried
on whether drought conditions forced them to
take out their children out of school. This
was not the case in the majority of the cases (96
percent). A similar scenario was observed across
districts. Households were also asked whether
drought conditions were forcing them to reduce
child expenditure on education. This was not
reported by the majority of respondents (85 percent). However, 44 per cent of respondents
from Mannar and another 39 percent from
Vavuniya reported incidences whereby
drought prompted them to cut these expenditures.
4
On child’s welfare, households were inquired whether the drought IMPACT OF DROUGHT ON CHILD'S ROUTINE
ACTIVITIES
condition has had an impact on the child’s normal activities. Seventy
one percent claimed that drought has not impacted their child’s routine activities, while 27 percent stated otherwise.
On a district level basis, 29 percent from Ampara, 40 percent
from Anuradhapura, 43 per cent from Pollonnaruwa and 50
percent from Mannar, stated that their child’s activities had
been disturbed by drought conditions during the time of the survey.
IV. Agriculture and Outlook for Yala 2017
Sri Lanka needs 2.3 million MT of rice for its annual consumption. The current most likely projections indicate
production of only 1.44 million MT. The field assessment findings confirmed that there is a significant drop in the Maha
2016/17 cultivation and the country’s main harvest is estimated to be approximately 50 percent below average. At this
rate the Maha 2016/17 harvest is sufficient to provide less than four and a half months of the national
demand of rice (Department of Agriculture, February 2017) compared to the normal 8-9 months of
demand.
Limited carry–over capacity of water in the major irrigation reservoirs as well as the limited availability
of seed stocks will be major factors affecting the coming Yala planting season. Despite periodic rains, the current
water levels of the natural reservoirs is reported to be low (39 percent on average) while levels of more
than 50 percent are required for planting in the Yala season. This low water level will greatly hinder the enrolment rate
for the Yala 2017. The availability of seeds is also a significant uncertainty for affected households, with only 10% of
farmers having produced their own paddy seeds to plant the coming season. One third of the farmers are planning to
purchase from private vendors while 40 percent of farmers said they will rely on government intervention. Moreover,
highly indebted farming communities will continue to struggle to find enough capital to invest in the 2017 Yala
cultivation. Labor opportunities will
RICE PRODUCTION FORECAST– 2017
again be negatively affected, putting
further hardship on this population
group.
If the all climate conditions are
favorable in the coming Yala sesason
(Yala 2017,) the total forecasted
rice production is around 1.93 Mn
MT.
If the Yala 2017 is not successful
due lower carrying capacity, the
estimated annual rice production
will reach only 1.44 Mn MT.
** Best case scenario ** Scenario with a failure of Yala 2017
For more information, please contact:
Ministry of Disaster Management
United Nations World Food Programme
Telephone: : +94-112-665170
Vidya Mawatha, Colombo 07.
E-mail:
Telephone: +94 11 2586244
2, Jawatte Avenue, Colombo 5, Sri Lanka.
5
SRI LANKA
food security and livelihoods affected by erratic weather
Annex I
Detailed Findings
SRI LANKA
food security and livelihoods affected by erratic weather
Meteorological drought conditions
Rainfall anomaly, as a percentage of the long-term average, Aug-Dec 2016
August
September
October
November
December
Vegetation Health Index, Aug– Dec 2016
August
September
October
November
December
SRI LANKA
food security and livelihoods affected by erratic weather
Methodology
Coverage
10 Districts( Ampara, Batticaloa,
Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa,
Mannar, Vavuniya, Kurunegala,
Puttlam, Moneragala, Hambanthota)
Five livelihood zones
48 DS Divisions
80 Locations(GN Divisions)
1,524 household interviews
Over 50 focus group discussions
Sampling
Considered only the affected areas
PPS technique for sample creation by
using the population data and
reported under drought / dry
weather impacts
SRI LANKA
food security and livelihoods affected by erratic weather
Key Findings
 Food insecurity has been deteriorated
among many communities and increasing
in drought affected regions. Some regions
reached alarming levels of poor/borderline
food consumption.
 > 50% of the affected households have lost
more than one third of their expected
income during Maha 2016/17 season
 Farming households needs immediate
compensation for crop losses to plan Yala
2017
 Seeds are still a major constraint to plan
Yala 2017
 Access to drinking water and quality is still
a major concern
 Half of the affected population request for
cash and food assistance to meet
immediate needs.
SRI LANKA
food security and livelihoods affected by erratic weather
Captured by : Laksiri Nanayakkara/WFP
FOOD SECURITY &
LIVELIHOOD
SRI LANKA
food security and livelihoods affected by erratic weather
Livelihood profile of the
affected people
4% 3%
7%
10%
53%
22%
Crop based
Casual labour
Formal employment
Other
Petty trading/business
Fishing
Livestock/poultry
Estate worker
SRI LANKA
food security and livelihoods affected by erratic weather
Proportion of Households
Food consumption based
coping strategies
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Consume less preferred food
Borrow food/money from friends & relativs
Limit the portion size
Limit the numbe of meals
49%
40%
29%
23%
SRI LANKA
food security and livelihoods affected by erratic weather
Proportion of households
Livelihood coping strategies
100%
80% 75% 74%
67%
66%
65%
56% 60%
55%
60%
50%
48%
43% 40%
41% 41%
40%
35% 31%
35%
40%
29%
24%
20%
10%
3%
0%
Proportion of Households
Pawned jewellery
reduce exp. on essential items_health
60%
40%
15%
6%
20%
0%
Sold HH assets
Sold agricultural assets
take children out of school to work
reduce expenditure on children's education
SRI LANKA
food security and livelihoods affected by erratic weather
Food consumption -2017
Polonnaruwa
0.6%
4.4%
Ampara
2.6% 9.4%
Anuradhapura
0.7%10.6%
Hambanthota
13.0%
Batticaloa
0.5% 14.1%
Puttlam
14.3%
Kurunegala
0.4%
17.2%
Moneragala
0.5%
17.7%
Vavuniya
3.9%
Mannar
3.3%
Average
25.0%
30.0%
1.3% 15.9%
0%
Poor
20% 40% 60% 80%
Proportion of Households
Borderline
Acceptable
100%
SRI LANKA
food security and livelihoods affected by erratic weather
Food consumption by
livelihood
Proportion of Households
30%
25%
20%
15%
22%
10%
18%
9%
5%
0%
2%
1%
1%
Poor
8%
1%
Borderline
8%
7%
4%
SRI LANKA
food security and livelihoods affected by erratic weather
Food consumption by
income groups
50,000-75,000
9%
25,000-50,000
14%
15,000-25,000 1%
<15,000 2%
0%
14%
21%
5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Proportion of Households
Poor
Borderline
Statistically significant difference between the bottom-line and
topline income groups
SRI LANKA
food security and livelihoods affected by erratic weather
Food consumption further
deteriorated – Poor and
borderline
2017 Drought
17.2%
2014 Drought
14.0%
2012 Drought
Baseline (PW Survey -2016)
13%
0.6%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
Proportion of Households
20.0%
SRI LANKA
food security and livelihoods affected by erratic weather
Change in food insecurity
population
NUMBER OF FOOD INSECURE HOUSEHOLDS BY Disaster
(2012-2017)
SRI LANKA
food security and livelihoods affected by erratic weather
Captured by : Indu Abeyratne/ WFP
DRIVERS OF FOOD
INSECURITY
SRI LANKA
food security and livelihoods affected by erratic weather
Reduced levels of household
income
Proportion of Households
100%
80%
60%
40%
26%
60%
20%
42%
38%
35%
28%
27%
17%
12%
0%
12%
9%
Very high impact(50%)
High impact(30-50%)
Some impact(20-30%)
No impact
7%
SRI LANKA
food security and livelihoods affected by erratic weather
Nature of the damage
100%
Proportion of Households
80%
60%
93%
40%
88%
82%
72%
67%
64%
56%
56%
55%
20%
50%
36%
0%
Crop damage/failures
Loss of livelhood
Death or disease in livestock
No major impact
SRI LANKA
food security and livelihoods affected by erratic weather
Indebtedness
Proportion of Households
100%
80%
69%
60%
69%
67%
64%
64%
64%
59%
57%
61%
54%
47%
40%
20%
0%
HH reported as having loans exceeds over
60% of the total population surveyed.
SRI LANKA
food security and livelihoods affected by erratic weather
Market prices – retail price
of rice (long-grain)
100.00
LKR/ 1kg
80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00
Source: HARTI, 2017
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
Jan
0.00
SRI LANKA
food security and livelihoods affected by erratic weather
Captured by : Indu Abeyratne/WFP
AGRICULTURE
SRI LANKA
food security and livelihoods affected by erratic weather
Average extent of cultivation of
subsistence farming households
3
2.72
2.5
2.19
Acres
2
1.5
1
0.98
1.01
0.5
0
OFC_2015_16
OFC_2016/17
Paddy_2015/16
Paddy_2016/17
SRI LANKA
food security and livelihoods affected by erratic weather
Availability of seeds for Yala
2017
100%
7%
4%
7%
Proportion of Households
26%
80%
13%
35%
60%
27%
53%
77%
33%
8%
60%
53%
77%
7%
21%
79%
32%
21%
49%
42%
69%
40%
20%
25%
32%
36%
40%
14%
17%
19%
0%
11%
7%
7%
8%
8%
8%
10%
12%
12%
4%
3%
3%
Currently there is no source
Produced in 2016/17
Department of Agriculture
Private vendors
20%
7%
SRI LANKA
food security and livelihoods affected by erratic weather
SANITATION
SRI LANKA
food security and livelihoods affected by erratic weather
Access to water for
domestic needs
Not sufficient bathing and
washing
Not sufficient water for latrine
use
46%
3%
38%
2%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Proportion of Households
During drought
During normal conditions
Water for livestock is not a major concern yet
SRI LANKA
food security and livelihoods affected by erratic weather
Captured by : Indu Abeyratne/WFP
DRINKING WATER
SRI LANKA
food security and livelihoods affected by erratic weather
Sufficiency of water for bathing
and washing
Proportion of households
95%
52%
45%
3%
0%
Before drought During drought
Yes
No
SRI LANKA
food security and livelihoods affected by erratic weather
Proportion of Households
Access to drinking water
100%
80%
10% 10% 10% 3% 2% 2%
19%
41% 30% 30%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Sufficient
Some shortage
Extreme shortage
15%
SRI LANKA
food security and livelihoods affected by erratic weather
Proportion of Households
Current water source
100%
9%
25%
80%
60%
49%
1%
10%
25%
38%
26%
12%
23%
29%
22%
15%
8%
9%
40%
20%
0%
Regular
Alternative
Both
7%
11%
10%
2%
13%
22%
SRI LANKA
food security and livelihoods affected by erratic weather
Proportion of Households
Proportion of households who
do not accept quality of
current drinking water
100%
80%
60% 46% 45%
34% 34% 32%
40%
20%
0%
18% 14%
25%
11% 7% 5%
SRI LANKA
food security and livelihoods affected by erratic weather
Photo Credit : Indu Abeyratne/WFP
CHILD WELFARE
SRI LANKA
food security and livelihoods affected by erratic weather
Impact on children’s
normal life routine pattern
50
Proportion of households
45
44.17
38.89
40
35
30
25
20
15.13
15
10
5
0
Mannar
Vavuniya
Yes
Average
SRI LANKA
food security and livelihoods affected by erratic weather
Impact on children’s
normal life routine
27% respondent households have mentioned that their
children have an impact.
*****
53% of the reported households(out of 27% total pop)
having an impact health condition
Health conditions
53%
Food & Nutrition
21%
Education and schooling
18%
Safe and adequate drinking water
6%
Children's protection issues
1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Proportion of households with impacts on children
60%
SRI LANKA
food security and livelihoods affected by erratic weather
Reduced expenditure on child’s
education due to drought
60%
50%
40%
40%
43%
Proportion of households
27%
20%
0%
Yes
SRI LANKA
food security and livelihoods affected by erratic weather
Demographics
 Average Household size : 4
 Average number of people in the
HH who contribute to household
income: 1.39
 Respondents - 43% Males, 57%
Females
 13% of the surveyed households
are female headed.
SRI LANKA
food security and livelihoods affected by erratic weather
ASSISTANCE
SRI LANKA
food security and livelihoods affected by erratic weather
Assistance requests
Cash
27%
Food
20%
Water
17%
Crop seeds
11%
Work opportunities
9%
Rehabilitation of irrigation
8%
Fertilizer and pesticides
7%
Animal feed
1%
0%
5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Proportion of Households
30%