ENERGY
INDICATORS
International Comparisons of Energy
Use and Carbon Dioxide Emissions
The IEA Indicator Approach
Worldwide Trends
in Energy Use and
Efficiency
Dr Peter G Taylor
Acting Head, Energy Technology Policy Division
Key Insights from
IEA Indicator Analysis
Climate Change and Sustainable Development – The Role of Indicators
Expert Group Meeting, United Nations, 15 – 16 October 2008, New York
INTERNATIONAL
ENERGY AGENCY
© OECD/IEA - 2008
Overview
ENERGY
INDICATORS
 Introduction to the IEA work
 Simple energy and CO2 indicators
 Analysing trends and drivers
 CO2 reduction potentials
Worldwide Trends
in Energy Use and
Efficiency
Key Insights from
IEA Indicator Analysis
 Conclusions
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ENERGY AGENCY
© OECD/IEA - 2008
IEA Indicators Work
ENERGY
INDICATORS
 Establish a harmonised framework for analysis
 Harmonisation => Comparability
 Comparability => Understanding of global trends
and drivers
 Produce meaningful cross-country analysis to
provide guidance to policy-makers on:
 Underlying drivers (economic activity &
structure, income, prices...)
 Trends in energy use and CO2 emissions
 Energy efficiency opportunities and progress
 Policy effectiveness
Worldwide Trends
in Energy Use and
Efficiency
Key Insights from
IEA Indicator Analysis
INTERNATIONAL
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Shares of Global Final Energy Consumption
and CO2 Emissions by Sector, 2006
Other
3%
ENERGY
INDICATORS
Other
4%
Manufacturing
33%
Transport
26%
Services
9%
Transport
25%
Manufacturing
38%
Services
12%
Households
29%
Total final energy consumption: 285 EJ
Households
21%
Total direct and indirect CO2 emissions: 21 Gt CO2
Worldwide Trends
in Energy Use and
Efficiency
Key Insights from
IEA Indicator Analysis
INTERNATIONAL
ENERGY AGENCY
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Total Final Energy Consumption by Sector
ENERGY
INDICATORS
70
60
50
EJ
40
30
20
Worldwide Trends
in Energy Use and
Efficiency
10
Key Insights from
IEA Indicator Analysis
EC
O
O
EC
D
Eu
ro
p
e
19
90
D
20
Pa
0
ci
fic 5
19
U
90
S
&
C
an 20
ad 05
a
19
90
20
M
ex
05
ic
o
19
90
20
C
0
hi
na 5
19
90
20
In
05
di
a
19
90
20
B
05
ra
zi
l1
99
So
0
ut
h
2
A
00
fr
5
ic
a
19
90
20
R
us
05
si
a
19
90
20
0
R
oW 5
19
90
20
05
0
Manufacturing
Households
Services
Transport
Other
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Total Final Energy Consumption by Energy
Commodity
ENERGY
INDICATORS
100%
80%
60%
40%
Worldwide Trends
in Energy Use and
Efficiency
20%
Key Insights from
IEA Indicator Analysis
Oil
Natural gas
Coal
Renewables
District heat
19
90
20
05
oW
R
R
us
s
ia
19
90
20
05
19
90
20
05
So
ut
h
A
fr
ic
a
19
90
20
05
ra
zi
l
19
90
20
05
B
In
di
a
19
90
20
05
C
hi
na
19
90
20
05
ic
o
U
S
&
M
ex
C
an
ad
a
19
90
20
05
19
90
20
05
D
EC
O
O
EC
D
Eu
ro
pe
Pa
ci
fic
19
90
20
05
0%
Electricity
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Carbon Intensity of the Final Energy Mix
ENERGY
INDICATORS
120
100
kg CO2 per GJ
80
60
40
Worldwide Trends
in Energy Use and
Efficiency
20
Key Insights from
IEA Indicator Analysis
0
OECD
Europe
OECD
Pacific
US &
Canada
Mexico
China
1990
India
Brazil
South
Africa
Russia
RoW
2005
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CO2 Emissions per Capita
ENERGY
INDICATORS
18
16
t CO2 per capita
14
12
10
8
6
Worldwide Trends
in Energy Use and
Efficiency
4
2
Key Insights from
IEA Indicator Analysis
0
Other
Transport
Services
Households
Manufacturing
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CO2 Emissions per Unit of GDP
130
ENERGY
INDICATORS
3.5
2005 values
120
3.0
110
2.5
kg CO2 per USD 2000
Index (1990=100)
100
90
80
70
60
2.0
1.5
Worldwide Trends
in Energy Use and
Efficiency
1.0
50
0.5
Key Insights from
IEA Indicator Analysis
40
30
0.0
1990
Brazil
Mexico
India
China
1995
OECD Pacific
RoW
OECD Europe
2000
2005
South Africa
US & Canada
Russia
using GDP at PPP
using GDP at MER
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End-Use Coverage for Indicators
ENERGY
INDICATORS
Worldwide Trends
in Energy Use and
Efficiency
Key Insights from
IEA Indicator Analysis
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Factors Affecting Energy-Related
CO2 Emissions
ENERGY
INDICATORS
 Level of Energy Use
Activity
Structure (mix of activities)
Energy intensity of each activity
 Carbon Intensity of Energy Use
Fuel mix
Carbon intensity of each fuel
Worldwide Trends
in Energy Use and
Efficiency
Key Insights from
IEA Indicator Analysis
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Household CO2 Emissions by
End-Use, IEA19
900
ENERGY
INDICATORS
100%
800
Space
heating
700
600
80%
45%
39%
Appliances
60%
Mt CO2
500
Water
heating
400
40%
27%
34%
300
Lighting
200
20%
14%
8%
8%
5%
4%
1990
2005
Key Insights from
IEA Indicator Analysis
Cooking
100
0
1990
16%
Worldwide Trends
in Energy Use and
Efficiency
0%
1995
2000
2005
Note: Energy use for space heating has been climate corrected
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Energy consumption of
Appliances, EU15
Average Unit Energy Consumption
Share of Large and Small Appliances
500
65%
60%
Share in total appliances energy use
400
300
kWh per year
ENERGY
INDICATORS
200
100
0
55%
50%
Worldwide Trends
in Energy Use and
Efficiency
45%
40%
Key Insights from
IEA Indicator Analysis
35%
1990
1995
Large appliances
1990
Source: ODYSSEE
1995
2000
2000
2005
Other appliances
2005
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Passenger Transport CO2
Emissions per Capita, 2005
ENERGY
INDICATORS
5
t CO2 per capita
4
3
2
1
Worldwide Trends
in Energy Use and
Efficiency
0
Key Insights from
IEA Indicator Analysis
Cars
Other passenger modes
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Energy Use per PassengerKilometre (All Modes)
ENERGY
INDICATORS
2.5
MJ per pkm
2.0
1.5
1.0
Worldwide Trends
in Energy Use and
Efficiency
0.5
Key Insights from
IEA Indicator Analysis
0.0
1990
2005
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Share of Total Passenger
Transport by Mode, 2005
ENERGY
INDICATORS
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
Worldwide Trends
in Energy Use and
Efficiency
30%
20%
Key Insights from
IEA Indicator Analysis
10%
0%
Cars
Buses
Rail
Air
Water
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Average Fuel Intensity of the
Car Stock
ENERGY
INDICATORS
Litres of gasoline equivalent per 100 vehicle-km
13
US
Australia
Japan
New Zealand
Canada
Switzerland
Sweden
Ireland
Germany
Netherlands
Norway
Austria
France
UK
Finland
Denmark
Italy
Greece
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
1990
1995
2000
Worldwide Trends
in Energy Use and
Efficiency
Key Insights from
IEA Indicator Analysis
2005
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Decomposition of Trends in
Overall CO2 Emissions, IEA16
ENERGY
INDICATORS
2.5%
Average annual percent change
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
-0.5%
Worldwide Trends
in Energy Use and
Efficiency
-1.0%
Key Insights from
IEA Indicator Analysis
-1.5%
1990-1995
Actual energy use
1995-2000
Actual CO2 emissions
2000-2005
Activity
Structure
Intensity
1990-2005
Fuel mix
Carbon intensity
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Decomposition of Trends in CO2
per Unit of GDP
ENERGY
INDICATORS
1.0%
Average annual percent change
0.5%
0.0%
-0.5%
-1.0%
-1.5%
-2.0%
Worldwide Trends
in Energy Use and
Efficiency
-2.5%
-3.0%
Key Insights from
IEA Indicator Analysis
-3.5%
Energy efficiency effect
Energy services per GDP
CO2 intensity effect
CO2 per GDP
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Factors impacting CO2 emissions
from final energy use, IEA16
ENERGY
INDICATORS
12
10
Hypothetical CO 2 emissions without either
energy efficiency or CO 2 intensity improvements
18%
8
Gt CO2
CO2 emissions savings from reductions
in CO2 intensity of energy mix
CO2 emissions savings from energy
efficiency improvements
Actual CO 2 emissions
6
Worldwide Trends
in Energy Use and
Efficiency
4
Key Insights from
IEA Indicator Analysis
2
0
1990
1995
2000
2005
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Using Indicators to Calculate
Reduction Potentials for CO2 Emissions
ENERGY
INDICATORS
 Use of BAT/BPT to assess potential in the
industrial and electricity generation sectors
 These indicators are useful for showing:
 To what extent existing technology can achieve
further savings
 Where the potential lies (countries and processes)
 However, there are limitations to the use of the
indicators:
 Assess instantaneous technical potential
 Do not take into account practical constraints
 Not suitable for short-term target setting
Worldwide Trends
in Energy Use and
Efficiency
Key Insights from
IEA Indicator Analysis
 But calculated potentials are easy to understand
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CO2 Reduction Potential in Cement, Based
on Best Available Technology
0.50
450
0.45
0.39
400
0.40
350
0.35
Mt CO2
300
0.30
0.25
250
200
0.22
0.25
0.20
0.20
0.18
0.19
0.16
0.14
150
0.15
0.09
100
0.20
0.10
0.06
50
0.05
0
Specific savings potential (t CO2 per tonne of cement)
500
ENERGY
INDICATORS
Worldwide Trends
in Energy Use and
Efficiency
Key Insights from
IEA Indicator Analysis
0.00
World
Fuel CO2
Russia
Canada
Electricity savings
US
China
Alternative fuel
Korea
BF slag
Brazil
India
OECD
Europe
Other clinker substitute
Japan
Other
Specific savings potential
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Technical Fuel and CO2 Savings Potential
from Improving the Efficiency of Electricity
Production
ENERGY
INDICATORS
Worldwide Trends
in Energy Use and
Efficiency
Key Insights from
IEA Indicator Analysis
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Key Conclusions and Policy
Messages
ENERGY
INDICATORS
 Indicators are a powerful tool for analysing trends in




energy use and CO2 emissions, and calculating potentials
for further savings
Results show the important role of energy efficiency in
shaping patterns of energy use and CO2 emissions in IEA
countries, but gains are often offset by other factors
Large potential for further energy and CO2 savings in
many industries and power generation (and other sectors)
Sustainable development requires that CO2 emissions be
decoupled from economic growth, this is possible but will
require strong policy-action from Governments
Urgent need for governments to enhance framework for
monitoring end-use energy consumption and address the
gaps in available statistical data
Worldwide Trends
in Energy Use and
Efficiency
Key Insights from
IEA Indicator Analysis
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ENERGY
INDICATORS
Thank you !
Worldwide Trends
in Energy Use and
Efficiency
Key Insights from
IEA Indicator Analysis
INTERNATIONAL
ENERGY AGENCY
contact: [email protected]
The latest IEA indicators report (published May 2008) is
available for free download at:
www.iea.org/Textbase/Papers/2008/Indicators_2008.pdf
© OECD/IEA - 2008