Ronald Wintrobe (1990): The Tinpot and the
Totalitarian: An Economic Theory of Dictatorship
Presented for The Political Economics Reading Group at ESOP
25/5 2009, Carl Henrik Knutsen
Politics in dictatorships
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Wintrobe’s early contribution (1990). A growing political
economic literature. Some exemplary studies: Olson
(1993), Wintrobe (1998), Bueno de Mesquita et al. (2003),
Acemoglu and Robinson (2006). + papers discussed in
pol.ec. group and several others…
What motivates different dictators?
How do dictators respond to exogenous changes,
especially economic shocks?
What policies should Western countries pursue when
dealing with different dictatorships?
Wintrobe’s contribution
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The importance of modelling heterogeneous dictators; more
specifically: Explicitly taking into account that different
dictators/regimes are motivated by different objectives..
Wintrobe’s two main types of dictators: The Tinpot and the
Totalitarian.
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1998 book: Adds the Tyrant and the Timocrat
Elaborating on the means at the dictators disposal (loyalty and
repression)
Explaining heterogeneous policy responses to similar shocks.
 heterogeneous interactions between political
actors/structures and the economy.
Policy implications for democratic leaders wanting to
maximize freedom abroad
Some comments
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The historical backdrop. 1990 and the end of
Communism. Do Totalitarians still exist?
Other and more refined classifications
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Geddes
Linz and Stepan
Hadenius and Teorell
Classifications related to motivation, institutional
structure, democracy-dictatorship continuum, other
variables?
Notation and assumptions
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π (L, R) = production function for power, where L is loyalty and
R is repression
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π’L and π’R > 0
π’’LR > 0
π’’LL and π’’RR < 0
PR , PL: price/cost of repression, loyalty. Some distinctions in
paper between of price paid by dictator for loyalty and price
received by suppliers of loyalty.
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PL = PL (L, R, PE)
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dPL/dL>0, dPL/dR<0, dPL/dPE<0
PE: economic performance
Dictator’s expenditure function:
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B = PRR + PL (L, R, PE)L