Prevention of introduction
and spread of emerging plant
pests and diseases
Michael Jeger*,
Centre for Environmental Policy,
Imperial College London
and Chair, EFSA Plant Health Panel
Giuseppe Stancanelli and Marco Pautasso,
Animal and Plant Health Unit, EFSA, Parma
Context
• Prevention of the entry, establishment and spread of
plant pests and diseases is a key component of risk
management in relation to plant pests and diseases
in the European Union.
• As part of its risk assessment mandate, the Plant
Health Panel of EFSA evaluates risk reduction options
in its scientific opinions using a variety of
approaches.
• In particular the use of quantitative as opposed to
purely qualitative methods has been recognised as
an important issue in assessing the effectiveness of
risk reduction options.
Developments at EFSA
• The use of quantitative methods by the Plant Health Panel
was reviewed with some comparison to the work of other
EFSA Panels in relation to biological hazards
(http://www.efsa.europa.eu/en/search/doc/251e.pdf).
• The Opinions of the Plant Health Panel (2006 - May 2011)
were examined, with particular attention paid to whether
quantitative methods were used in evaluating the
effectiveness of risk reduction options.
• In only four opinions (out of 46) were quantitative methods
explicitly used in the evaluation of risk reduction options in
relation to one or more aspects of entry, establishment,
spread, and impact.
EFSA Opinions on biological
hazards (2004 - May 2011)
EFSA Opinions on biological
hazards (2004 - May 2011)
EFSA Opinions on biological
hazards (2004 - May 2011)
A growing temporal trend
Methods used
Additional issues
EFSA Opinions
• Monilinia fructicola
(http://www.efsa.europa.eu/en/efsajournal/pub/2119.htm)
• Tilletia indica
(http://www.efsa.europa.eu/en/efsajournal/pub/1621.htm)
• Dryocosmus kuriphilus
(http://www.efsa.europa.eu/en/efsajournal/pub/1619.htm)
• Pine wood nematode
(http://www.efsa.europa.eu/en/efsajournal/pub/1055.htm)
Puffing from apothecia of Monilinia fructicola
from: Sanoamuang & Gaunt (1996) Plant Disease
EFSA PLH Opinion on Monilinia fructicola (2011)
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Actual spread of Dryocosmus kuriphilus in Piemonte, NW Italy
(2002-2009)
EFSA PLH Opinion on D. kuriphilus (2010)
Actual spread of Dryocosmus kuriphilus in Italy (as of 2009)
Simulated spread of Dryocosmus kuriphilus (2010-2016)
EFSA PLH Opinion on D. kuriphilus (2010)
Actual spread of Dryocosmus kuriphilus in France (as of 2012)
Actual spread of Dryocosmus kuriphilus in France (as of Sep 2014)
vs. predicted spread
for 2014 (EFSA 2010)
Bunted wheat grains (Tilletia indica)
Source: EPPO
Importance of the influence variables in the updated model for
wheat for grain, on average teliospores on surface after 1st year
EFSA PLH Opinion on Tilletia indica (2010)
Importance of the influence variables in the updated model for
durum wheat, on average teliospores on surface after 1st year
EFSA PLH Opinion on Tilletia indica (2010)
Pine wood nematodes
Source: Wikipedia Commons
Pine wood nematodes: USDA risk reduction 100% effective?
EFSA PLH Opinion on Bursaphelenchus xylophilus (2009)
The EFSA Plant Health Panel published in 2012 a
guidance on evaluating risk reduction options:
“Guidance of the Scientific Panel on Plant Health on methodology for evaluation
of the effectiveness of options for reducing the risk of introduction and spread of
organisms harmful to plant health in the EU territory”
(http://www.efsa.europa.eu/en/efsajournal/pub/2755.htm)
The Opinion included guidance on:
•quantitative methods to be applied by the Panel for evaluation of the
effectiveness of options;
•information and data to be provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of
options; and
•experimental designs & statistical methods for assessing the effectiveness
of options to reduce the level of risk of introduction & spread.
EFSA PLH (2012) guidance on evaluating risk reduction options
In particular stress was placed on:
•computing confidence/credibility levels to assess uncertainty
over effectiveness,
•comparing effectiveness to some standard,
•comparing the equivalence of any two risk reduction options,
•estimating dose-effectiveness relationships,
•and choosing an appropriate statistical model according to the
type of available data.
Acknowledgements
EFSA Plant Health Panel & ALPHA Unit