INTERNATIONAL
ENERGY AGENCY
Light’s Labour’s Lost:
Policies for Energy-efficient Lighting
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
LIGHT’S
LABOUR’S
LOST
Policies for
Energy-efficient
Lighting
© OECD/IEA - 2007
INTERNATIONAL
ENERGY AGENCY
How important is lighting?
„ 2650 TWh of electricity consumption
„ some 19% of global electricity use
(15-17% greater than nuclear or hydro
power)
„ equivalent to production of all gas-fired
power generation, or 1265 power
plants
LIGHT’S
LABOUR’S
LOST
Policies for
Energy-efficient
Lighting
INTERNATIONAL
ENERGY AGENCY
Lighting CO2 emissions in 2005
„ All lighting = 1889 MtCO2
¾ Grid based = 1528 MtCO2
¾ Fuel-based lighting = 200 MtCO2
¾ Vehicle lighting = 161 MtCO2
„ Equivalent to 70% of world passenger
vehicle emissions
LIGHT’S
LABOUR’S
LOST
Policies for
Energy-efficient
Lighting
INTERNATIONAL
ENERGY AGENCY
Lighting electricity consumption
shares by sector in 2005
8%
18%
43%
31%
LIGHT’S
LABOUR’S
LOST
Policies for
Energy-efficient
Lighting
Commercial
Residential
Industrial
Outdoor stationary
INTERNATIONAL
ENERGY AGENCY
The cost of lighting in 2005
„ Total cost of lighting is US$460 billion
per annum
„ Equivalent to >1% of global GDP or
the total GDP of the Former Soviet
Union
„ Two thirds of the cost is for the energy
used
LIGHT’S
LABOUR’S
LOST
Policies for
Energy-efficient
Lighting
INTERNATIONAL
ENERGY AGENCY
Cost of residential lighting in 2005
„ Total cost of residential electric lighting
is US$136 billion
„ Equivalent to US$7.1 per Mlm-hr
„ The cost of electricity is ¾ of the total
LIGHT’S
LABOUR’S
LOST
Policies for
Energy-efficient
Lighting
„ Most energy is for incandescent
lighting but this only provides 44% of
the delivered light in this sector
INTERNATIONAL
ENERGY AGENCY
Artificial source-lumens:
residential sector in 2005
„ Global average consumption of 3 Megalumens of residential electric-light per
capita/year
„ Average North American uses 13.2 Mega-lmhrs; average Chinese 1.5 Mega-lm-hrs
„ But that’s still 300 times average artificial per
capita light use in England in C19th
„ Yet average Japanese uses 18.5 Mlmh and
the average European or Australian uses
2.7Mlmh
LIGHT’S
LABOUR’S
LOST
Policies for
Energy-efficient
Lighting
„ Global light consumption = 19.2 Peta-lm-hrs
in 2005
"These lovely lamps, these
windows of the soul."
z
Incandescent
z
Fluorescent
z
HID
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Large differences in lamp efficacy
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Total delivered light in 2005
((Teralumen
Teralumen hours)
Residential
LFL
CFL
Halogen
HID
Incandescent
LED
Outdoor Stationary
Industrial
Commercial
0
20000
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
40000
60000
Light output (Tlm-hours)
80000
100000
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Light output by lamp type in 2005
(global res. total 19.2 Peta
-lumen hrs)
Peta-lumen
18.9%
41.3%
21.2%
T12
T8
T5
CFL b-i
CFL b-o
Halogen
LED
Sodium HID
Metal halide
Mercury HID
Incan-ref
Incan
2.4%
2.5%
5.6%
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
8.0%
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Estimated share of res. light provided
by major lighting technologies in 2005
China
Russia
LFL
CFL
Halogen
Incandescent
USA
Japan
Europe
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Share of residential light
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
INTERNATIONAL
ENERGY AGENCY
Large differences in residential
sector efficacy by region
Global average residential electric
lighting system efficacy was:
„ 23.7 lm/W in 2005
„ Greater than a factor of five variation
between regions
„ 11.5 lm/W in FSU to 64 lm/W in Japan
LIGHT’S
LABOUR’S
LOST
Policies for
Energy-efficient
Lighting
Important differences in OECD
Country
UK
Sw eden
Germany
Denmark
Greece
Italy
France
USA
Japan
Lighting
electricity
consumption
per
household
kWh/year
720
760
775
426
381
375
465
1946
939
Lamps
per
household
Lamps
20.1
40.4
30.3
23.7
10.4
14.0
18.5
43.0
17.0
Average
lamp
efficacy
lm/W
25
24
27
32
26
27
18
18
64
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
Light
consumption
per unit floor
area
Installed
lighting
pow er
density
Lighting
electricity
consumption
per unit floor
area
Lamp
operating
time
Household
floor
area
M-lmhrs/m2/year
0.21
0.16
0.22
0.10
0.09
0.09
0.22
0.27
0.49
W/m2
14.7
14.0
15.6
5.7
7.8
10.6
16.1
21.5
8.1
kWh/m2/yr
8.6
6.9
9.3
3.3
3.7
4.0
5.7
15.1
10.0
hours/day
1.60
1.35
1.48
1.59
1.30
1.03
0.97
1.92
3.38
m2
84
110
83
134
113
108
81
132
94
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
800
600
550
400
283
214
209
200
148
53
127
83
No
rth
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
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Electricity consumption (kWh/capita)
Res. lighting electricity consumption
per capita in 2005 (kWh/year)
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Electricity consumption (TWh/yr)
800
Residential lighting electricity
consumption in 2005
OECD = 372 TWh
non-OECD = 439 TWh
600
400
296
238
200
79
50
70
74
5
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pa
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O
No
rth
Am
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ic
a
0
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Annual average residential electric light
consumption vs. GDP/capita
Lighting cons. (M-lm-hrs/Capita/year)
18
16
0.0602x
y = 1.4125e
2
R = 0.8588
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
0
10
20
30
40
50
GDP per capita (2000US$ thousands)
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Residential light output by lamp type in
2030 (global total 49 Peta
-lumen hrs)
Peta-lumen
10.5%
28.5%
T12
18.0%
T8
T5
CFL b-i
CFL b-o
Halogen
LED
Sodium HID
4.5%
9.3%
Metal halide
Mercury HID
Incan-ref
Incan
8.8%
20.5%
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
INTERNATIONAL
ENERGY AGENCY
Consider use of CFLs in homes
Incandescent
CFL
Initial cost of bulb
Efficacy
US$0.5
12lm/W
US$10
60 lm/W
Lifespan
For 10000 hours
use
1000 hours
10000 hours
Electricity cost
Cost of lamps
US$75
US$5
US$15
US$10
Total cost of
ownership
US$80
US$25
IRR = 186%
LIGHT’S
LABOUR’S
LOST
Policies for
Energy-efficient
Lighting
INTERNATIONAL
ENERGY AGENCY
LIGHT’S
LABOUR’S
LOST
Policies for
Energy-efficient
Lighting
Assumptions under least-life
cycle cost from 2008 scenario
In majority of cases when the operating hours exceed
an economic threshold assume:
¾ CFLs replace incandescent lamps (75% of cases)
¾ T12s and halo-phosphor T8s are replaced by triphosphor T8s and T5s
¾ Proportion of halogens replaced by LEDs (from
medium term onwards)
¾ Halogen torchieres are phased out
¾ Electronic ballasts
¾ In line with natural replacement cycles for lamps,
ballasts and fixtures
LLCC Light output by lamp type in 2030
(global res. total 49 Peta
-lumen hrs)
Peta-lumen
0.8% 5.5% 2.3%
3.0%
13.0%
16.9%
T12
T8
T5
CFL b-i
CFL b-o
Halogen
LED
Sodium HID
Metal halide
Mercury HID
Incan-ref
Incan
58.5%
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Res. energy consumption: no
-policies,
no-policies,
current
-policies and LLCC
-scenarios
current-policies
LLCC-scenarios
2500
Lighting electricity consumption (TWh)
No Policies
Current Policies
2000
181 TWh
= 9%
LLCC from 2008
610 TWh
= 35%
1500
1000
500
0
1995
2000
2005
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Residential lighting cost savings
compared to Current Policies
Lighting cost savings (billion US$)
80
70
LLCC from 2008
60
No Policies
50
40
30
20
10
0
-101990
2000
2010
2020
2030
-20
-30
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
INTERNATIONAL
ENERGY AGENCY
Benefits from residential LLCC
scenario compared to Current
Policies scenario
The least life cycle cost from 2008 results in
global savings of:
¾ US$69 billion and 356 Mt CO2 in 2030
¾ US$1.3 trillion and 6.4 Gt CO2 of cumulative
savings to 2030
¾ Net cost of avoided CO2 is negative
(-US$205/tonne)
LIGHT’S
LABOUR’S
LOST
Policies for
Energy-efficient
Lighting
INTERNATIONAL
ENERGY AGENCY
Lighting energy consumption
scenarios for all grid-electric end-use
sectors
Lighting electricity consumption (TWh)
6000
LIGHT’S
LABOUR’S
LOST
Policies for
Energy-efficient
Lighting
No Policies
5000
Current Policies
745 TWh
= 17.5%
LLCC from 2008
4000
1635 TWh
= 38.4%
3000
2000
1000
0
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
INTERNATIONAL
ENERGY AGENCY
Cumulative benefits of the LLCC
from 2008 scenario to 2030
„Avoids 28000 TWh of electricity use
(almost 6% of all electricity demand over the
same timeframe)
LIGHT’S
LABOUR’S
LOST
Policies for
Energy-efficient
Lighting
„Total costs of lighting are US$2.6
trillion (1000 billion) lower
„Avoids 16 Gt of CO2 emissions
„Net cost of avoided CO2 emissions
are negative i.e.
-US$161/tonne of CO2
INTERNATIONAL
ENERGY AGENCY
LIGHT’S
LABOUR’S
LOST
Policies for
Energy-efficient
Lighting
Cumulative benefits from
phasing-out incandescent
lighting
„ Globally incandescent lamps are estimated to
have accounted for 970 TWh of final electricity
consumption and 560 Mt of CO2 in 2005
„ About 61% of this demand was in the
residential sector with most of the rest in
commercial and public buildings
„ With current trends incandescent lamps could
use 1610 TWh of final electricity by 2030
„ In the hypothetical case that all these lamps
were to be replaced by CFLs it would save
roughly 800 TWh and 470 Mt CO2 emissions in
2010 rising to 1200 TWh and 700 Mt CO2 in 2030
INTERNATIONAL
ENERGY AGENCY
Barriers to efficient lighting
LIGHT’S
LABOUR’S
LOST
Policies for
Energy-efficient
Lighting
„Lack of user awareness
„Lack of information
„Customers don’t look at total
ownership cost – just initial price
„Split incentives
„Low priority
„Some product labelling/quality
issues
INTERNATIONAL
ENERGY AGENCY
Some policies to bring it about
LIGHT’S
LABOUR’S
LOST
Policies for
Energy-efficient
Lighting
„ Minimum energy performance standards
and labelling for lamps, ballasts &
luminaires
„ Police CFL quality and provide
incentives to adopt good CFLs in place
of incandescent lamps
„ Building codes setting performance
requirements for lighting
„ Fiscal incentives
„ Increase public awareness and market
transformation efforts
„ But what is the right blend?
"It is not in the stars to hold our
destiny, but in ourselves”
--William Shakespeare
[email protected]
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