Cyclical and Structural Changes in Oil
Markets
for
Columbia University
January 29, 2016 | New York, NY
by
Adam Sieminski, Administrator
U.S. Energy Information Administration
U.S. Energy Information Administration
Independent Statistics & Analysis
www.eia.gov
Oil supply and demand begin to rebalance in 2017
world supply and demand
million barrels per day
implied stock change
million barrels per day
7
Forecast
6
100
98
96
Implied stock change and balance (right axis)
World production (left axis)
World consumption (left axis)
5
94
4
92
3
90
2
88
1
86
0
84
-1
82
2011-Q1
-2
2012-Q1
2013-Q1
2014-Q1
2015-Q1
2016-Q1
2017-Q1
Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook ,January 2016
Columbia University | GCC Countries in the New Oil World Workshop
January 29, 2016
2
OPEC drives production growth as North American and other nonOPEC production declines
world crude oil and liquid fuels production growth
million barrels per day
1.5
Forecast
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
2015
OPEC countries
Latin America
2016
North America
North Sea
2017
Russia and Caspian Sea
Other Non-OPEC
Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, January 2016
Columbia University | GCC Countries in the New Oil World Workshop
January 29, 2016
3
Production growth in top crude producing regions (Permian, Bakken,
Niobrara, and Eagle Ford) reverses in early 2015
monthly percent change
three month rolling average
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
Jan 2012
Jan 2013
Jan 2014
Jan 2015
Jan 2016
Source: EIA, Drilling Productivity Report, January 2016
Columbia University | GCC Countries in the New Oil World Workshop
January 29, 2016
4
Chinese demand growth slows but remains over 300 thousand barrels
per day in 2016 and 2017
world liquid fuels consumption
million barrels per day (MMb/d)
98
annual change (MMb/d
9
Change in U.S. consumption (right axis)
Change in China consumption (right axis)
Change in other consumption (right axis)
Total world consumption (left axis)
96
94
92
Forecast
8
7
6
90
5
88
4
86
3
84
2
82
1
80
0
78
-1
76
-2
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, January 2016
Columbia University | GCC Countries in the New Oil World Workshop
January 29, 2016
5
China is increasingly becoming a petroleum product exporter as it
liberalizes its refining sector
China refined petroleum oil exports
thousand barrels per day
China crude oil imports
thousand barrels per day
Source: China National Bureau of Statistics, China General Administration of Customs, Bloomberg
Columbia University | GCC Countries in the New Oil World Workshop
January 29, 2016
6