OPPORTUNITIES FOR DUTCH CLEAN ENERGY COMPANIES IN CHINA AZURE INTERNATIONAL December 2013 Prepared for: In collaboration with: Azure International Azure International – Opportunities for Dutch Clean Energy Companies in China – 2013 Opportunities for Dutch Clean Energy Companies in China Authors: Anders Hove, Guo Hong, Xue Shan, Emiel van Sambeek Azure International Suite H, 6 Floor, Office Tower, Oriental Kenzo 48 DongzhimenWai Street Dongcheng District, Beijing 100027, China T +86 10 8447 7053 F +86 10 8447 7058 I www.azure-international.com 2 Azure International – Opportunities for Dutch Clean Energy Companies in China – 2013 Contents 1 PREFACE ...............................................................................................................................................5 2 POSITIONING DUTCH CLEAN ENERGY TECH ..........................................................................................6 2.1 DUTCH BIOENERGY STRENGTHS ................................................................................................................ 6 2.2 DUTCH WIND STRENGTHS ....................................................................................................................... 7 2.3 DUTCH SOLAR STRENGTHS ....................................................................................................................... 9 2.4 DUTCH SMART GRID STRENGTHS .............................................................................................................. 9 3 TRENDS AND DRIVERS FOR CLEAN ENERGY TECHNOLOGY IN CHINA ..................................................11 3.1 MACRO DRIVERS FOR CLEAN ENERGY ........................................................................................................ 11 3.2 POLICY TARGETS FOR CLEAN ENERGY ........................................................................................................ 12 3.3 AREAS OF POLICY UNCERTAINTY............................................................................................................... 13 3.4 SUMMARY .......................................................................................................................................... 14 4 WIND .................................................................................................................................................15 4.1 POLICY ............................................................................................................................................... 15 4.2 TRENDS AND MAJOR PLAYERS ................................................................................................................. 16 4.3 FUTURE STRATEGY AND POTENTIAL COOPERATION ...................................................................................... 18 5 SOLAR ................................................................................................................................................19 5.1 POLICY ............................................................................................................................................... 19 5.2 PROJECTS AND KEY PLAYERS.................................................................................................................... 20 5.3 FUTURE STRATEGY AND POTENTIAL COOPERATION ...................................................................................... 21 6 SMART GRIDS.....................................................................................................................................23 6.1 POLICY ............................................................................................................................................... 23 6.2 PROJECTS ........................................................................................................................................... 23 6.3 KEY PLAYERS ........................................................................................................................................ 25 6.4 FUTURE STRATEGY AND POTENTIAL COOPERATION ...................................................................................... 26 7 ENERGY STORAGE ..............................................................................................................................28 7.1 POLICY ............................................................................................................................................... 28 7.2 PROJECTS ........................................................................................................................................... 30 7.3 KEY PLAYERS ........................................................................................................................................ 30 7.4 FUTURE STRATEGY AND POTENTIAL COOPERATION ...................................................................................... 32 8 BIO-ENERGY .......................................................................................................................................33 8.1 CURRENT STATUS AND TRENDS ............................................................................................................... 33 8.2 GASEOUS BIO-ENERGY ........................................................................................................................... 33 8.3 LIQUID BIO-ENERGY .............................................................................................................................. 34 8.4 SOLID BIO-ENERGY ............................................................................................................................... 35 8.4.1 Solid Biomass to Electricity ......................................................................................................... 35 8.4.2 Solid Bio-fuel Boilers .................................................................................................................... 36 8.5 CONCLUSIONS ..................................................................................................................................... 36 9 INVESTMENT TRENDS IN AND OUT OF CHINA ....................................................................................37 9.1 9.2 CHINA OUTBOUND DEALS FOCUS ON STRATEGIC EMERGING INDUSTRIES ......................................................... 37 CHINA OUTBOUND INVESTMENT IS GROWING, BOTH FOR M&A AND VC/PE ................................................... 38 3 Azure International – Opportunities for Dutch Clean Energy Companies in China – 2013 9.3 THE GEOGRAPHY OF INVESTING IS SHIFTING ............................................................................................... 39 9.4 PRIVATE COMPANIES ARE COMING TO THE FORE ......................................................................................... 39 9.5 CHINA’S CLEANTECH INVESTING INTERESTS DIVERSIFYING.............................................................................. 39 9.6 CONCLUSIONS ON CHINA OUTBOUND INVESTMENT TRENDS ......................................................................... 40 10 GUIDANCE ON A SUCCESSFUL CHINA STRATEGY ................................................................................42 10.1 STARTING NOTIONS ON CHINA ................................................................................................................ 42 10.2 TOWARDS EFFECTIVE STRATEGIES ............................................................................................................ 44 11 GOVERNMENT SUPPORT FOR DUTCH CLEANTECH COMPANIES IN CHINA..........................................47 11.1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................................... 47 11.2 NL AGENCY......................................................................................................................................... 47 11.3 MOU ENERGY COOPERATION CHINA – NETHERLANDS ................................................................................. 47 11.4 SUPPORT FOR DOING BUSINESS IN CHINA .................................................................................................. 48 11.5 REPRESENTATION OF THE NETHERLANDS IN CHINA...................................................................................... 49 CLEANTECH HOLLAND ................................................................................................................................50 AZURE INTERNATIONAL .............................................................................................................................50 REFERENCES ...............................................................................................................................................51 4 Azure International – Opportunities for Dutch Clean Energy Companies in China – 2013 1 Preface China is now the largest and one of the most dynamic markets for cleantech in the world and offers significant opportunities for Dutch clean energy entrepreneurs. Nevertheless, many clean energy technology companies are insufficiently aware of the opportunities that China provides. Such opportunities could consist of market potential of the huge China market. For early and mid stage technology companies China could also provide interesting partnership opportunities that can lower the cost of commercialization and accelerate the commercialization worldwide. Therefore it is often wise to start incorporating internationalization and making the step to China at an early stage of strategic business planning. However, many companies do not know where to start in conducting business in China and what to plan for. A lot of growth and export potential may remain unexploited if an effective China strategy is not considered. In addition, the Netherlands and China have a joint MoU on energy collaboration that is largely focused on clean energy. Activities under this MoU seek to reinforce institutional and business collaboration between China and the Netherlands. NL Agency is the executing agency for this MoU on behalf of the Dutch government. In this context FME-CMW, Azure International and NL Agency have developed this report on the business opportunities for Dutch clean energy technology companies in China. This report outlines the overall nature of those opportunities and makes clear the vast range of potential cooperation between the two countries across several areas of clean energy technology. 5 Azure International – Opportunities for Dutch Clean Energy Companies in China – 2013 2 Positioning Dutch clean energy tech Historically, the Netherlands has always been one of the most densely populated countries in the world. This has forced it early on to find ways to mitigate the environmental impact of its dense population, intensive agriculture, industry and its distribution and logistics sector. The result is broad range of unique and interconnected innovations in technology, business, regulation and policy—including policy on ecological areas. The Netherlands’ energy infrastructure is dominated by natural gas and is strongly integrated with gas markets throughout Europe. With diminishing gas reserves the Netherlands is now aiming to leverage its gas infrastructure and technological knowhow to transition to a green gas supply. Its traditional position in agricultural and chemical industries is now the basis of a transition towards a bio-based economy. The Netherlands’ renewable energy target is to increase the share of renewable energy from 4% in 2010 to 16% by 2023. With its long maritime tradition, the Netherlands offers knowledge and know-how in the areas of marine engineering relevant to both the oil and gas sector as well as the emerging offshore wind sector. With the Rotterdam port and Amsterdam airport the Netherlands is one of the main logistical hubs of Europe. Its location and position as a distribution node are also important for its connection to Europe’s energy infrastructure. The 2012 Global Cleantech Innovation Index puts the Netherlands on the 14th place, just below China which takes the 13th position.1 The two countries therefore appear close to each other in terms over overall cleantech innovation. However, the overall ranking masks important differences and areas of complementarity between the two countries. The most striking difference and complementarity follows from the fact that China scores well on commercialization of cleantech innovations, while the Netherlands scores better on generating new innovations. Another important difference is that innovations generated by the Netherlands result more from its general innovation drive and infrastructure across the economy, whereas China has a more specific cleantech focused innovation and deployment agenda. Economic ties between the Netherlands and China are strong. Within the EU, the Netherlands is third largest investor in China and the Netherlands is also the third largest destination of investment from China. Within the EU, the Netherlands is the second largest trading partner with China, after Germany and it ranks number ten on the global list of China’s trading partners. 2.1 Dutch Bioenergy Strengths Key features relevant to bio-energy development are the high population density resulting in a strong need to effectively manage environmental pressures associated with resource use, an open economy with a strong focus on distribution and logistics, a highly intensive agricultural sector and a strong knowledge infrastructure. Key areas of strength include: Torrefaction: The Netherlands has eight companies focused on developing different technology concepts for different biomass and waste feedstocks. Currently three demonstration plants are in operation. 6 Azure International – Opportunities for Dutch Clean Energy Companies in China – 2013 2.2 Gasification: The Netherlands has several companies with advanced expertise in the design and engineering of biomass gasification systems, as well as know-how in the operation of gasification systems for indirect co-firing of solid biomass in coal-fired power stations. Gas cleaning and upgrading are critical to increase the quality biogas from digestion processes or syngas from gasification processes so that it can be fed into the natural gas mains, used as a clean burning fuel or used as a chemical feedstock. With a well-developed natural gas infrastructure and emerging green gas sector the Netherlands has extensive expertise in gas cleaning and upgrading, as well as R&D in biomass gasification and syngas cleaning. Second generation biofuels: The Netherlands also has advanced expertise and technology in second generation liquid biofuel production technologies. Strong centres of technology development are clustered around Wageningen Agricultural University (www.wur.nl) and Technical University of Delft (www.tudelft.nl). Furthermore, DSM provides yeasts and enzymes for cellulose conversion. Co-digestion: The Netherlands has seen rapid development of co-digestion projects. Specific expertise and know-how in the Netherlands exists in the design and operation of co-digestion facilities of organic waste and wastewater treatment plant sludge. In addition, there is emerging expertise on increasing the quality of digestate to improve the utilization potential as fertilizer. Algae: A number of demonstration algae projects for food and energy applications are being implemented in the Netherlands and by Dutch companies and organizations outside the Netherlands. Through these activities a number of Dutch companies have built up strong research, design and operating expertise and knowhow in this field. Environmental controls: With its high population density and intensive use of resources and space the Netherlands has long had a strong focus on environmental management. Moreover, the use of biomass for energy production requires special environmental management systems and technologies. This has resulted in specialized companies that provide environmental control technologies such as flue gas cleaning, fly ash and bottom ash processing, including specifically for bio-energy systems. Dutch Wind Strengths With its long history of offshore oil and gas development, the Netherlands boasts a well-developed offshore engineering and construction sector, and now has a number of companies active in the the field of offshore wind. Offshore engineering and construction is a key area of know-how, expertise and technology in the Netherlands. Damen offers wind farm maintenance barges, utility vessels, fast crew suppliers and offshore lift capability, and has 16 shipyards located throughout the world.2 Van Oord has been involved in offshore wind farm projects in North West Europe, including the 62 MW Teesside plant in the U.K., the Dutch Princess Amalia Wind Farm and the Belwind Phase I Offshore Wind Farm. The company provides construction services such as foundation and turbine installation, cable installation, scour protection, and Engineering, Procurement and Construction (EPC) services.3 7 Azure International – Opportunities for Dutch Clean Energy Companies in China – 2013 Operations and maintenance of offshore wind farms is a key goal of Project DOWES, or Dutch Offshore Wind Energy Services. The project, a consortium of five companies, is aimed at experimenting with technologies for improved maintenance in the following areas: Development of fibre optic sensors to monitor blade conditions Development of corrosion sensors to monitor tower conditions Data warehousing Data into information processing Integration of spare part management Integration of logistical planning and services Costs optimisation Costs estimation Operational and strategic decision support The project is partly financed by the EU and was planned to take place between 2009 and 2013, meaning that results and follow-on work should be forthcoming.4 The Netherlands has set the goal of research and development to reduce the cost of installing offshore wind by 40% from 2010 to 2020. The development of the sector into a worldwide industry leader is being coordinated by the Topconsortium Kennis en Innovatie Wind op Zee, or Top Consortium for Knowledge and Innovation Offshore Wind, which is part of the Dutch Topsector Policy that targets the development of successful industry sectors through research and development in cooperation with universities and knowledge institutes. The TKI Offshore Wind directs the research, innovation activities and implementation of offshore wind technology for industry (including SMEs) in Netherlands. In addition, the TKI Wind op Zee promises rapid dissemination and deployment of the developed knowledge, techniques and working methods. TKI Offshore Wind is contributing to Project Leeghwater, an offshore wind farm for test and demonstration of innovations.5 The Netherlands is already working to form connections between industry and China on wind technology. The China Wind Consortium of the Netherlands, a spin-off from the MoU on energy cooperation between the Chinese National Energy Administration (NEA) and the Netherlands Ministry of Economic Affairs, is a group of ten companies and three knowledge institutes, that have worked closely together with the Dutch government and Dutch diplomatic network in China to increase market share. NL Agency has initiated the government-to-government-project “SinoDutch energy cooperation wind energy policy” aimed at bilateral cooperation in offshore wind power. The kick-off took place in June 2013 in Shanghai with a seminar on cost reduction in offshore wind. Holland Home of Wind Energy (HHWE) (www.hhwe.eu) is an independent exporters association representing the interests of the Dutch wind energy companies and knowledge institutes abroad. HHWE is a platform for encouraging international collaboration on wind energy and promote the Dutch wind energy sector. Particular regions targeted by the collaboration include China, Japan, Korea, India, Brazil and the United States. HHWE is able to set up public-private partnerships to enter emerging markets, as well as providing market scans and legal support. HHWE has 8 Azure International – Opportunities for Dutch Clean Energy Companies in China – 2013 sponsored booths at conferences around the world, including recently in China and Brazil; recent trade missions in Yokohama, Japan, and Shanghai, China, have focused on potential for collaboration on offshore wind. 2.3 Dutch Solar Strengths The Netherlands has a strong track record in Solar PV technology development. In the area of crystalline solar PV the Energy research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN, www.ecn.nl ) is a globally leading research institute with advanced technologies in back-contact cells and n-type monocrystalline cells. TKI Solar PV consortium is one of the Netherlands’ Top Sector Energy collaboration platform, with over 60 companies now participating. Currently, the TKI is focused on three areas: systems and applications, wafer-based silicon PV technology, and thin-film PV. Within thin film, TKI Solar PV areas of R&D focus include organic PV (development of processes and equipment for roll to roll manufacturing of novel OPV concepts by all printed processing, and development of OPV module integration concepts), and copper-indium-gallium-diselenide (CIGS) thin-film PV. As part of the CIGS element of the platform, Dutch and international partners are already working together to develop equipment and processes for roll to roll manufacturing solutions that combine improved optical (transmission and light management) and electrical (conductivity and charge conservation) properties to improve PV performance at reduced cost. The Solliance consortium (www.solliance.eu/) is coordinating these collaborations. Several universities are also engaged in advanced research and technology development in solar PV. The Technical University of Eindhoven is focused on thin-film technology development through the Solliance consortium with ECN, TNO (www.tno.nl) and industrial partners. The Netherlands also has a strong position in supplying manufacturing equipment for solar cell production with companies such as Tempress (www.tempress.nl), Eurotron (www.eurotron.nl/) and Smit Ovens (www.smitovens.nl/) as market leaders in their segment. 2.4 Dutch Smart Grid Strengths The Netherlands is home to a high quality, dense, and resilient electricity network, and the country is extremely well-connected in terms of information technology. Approximately 96% of homes are connected to coaxial or fiber-optic networks and the country has extensive ICT-development capability. The country is experienced in testing resilience and security technologies as well as peak shaving and load control. The Top consortium on Knowledge and Innovation (TKI) Switch2SmartGrids (S2SG) is one of the seven TKIs within the Dutch top sector of energy. Key Dutch smart grid companies include Alliander, DNV KEMA, Enexis, and TNO. Specific examples and areas of expertise include: Using gas fired electricity generators to balance wind power The DC cable between Norway and the Netherlands using Norwegian large scale storage for balancing Dutch wind-power facilitating the north-west European market 9 Azure International – Opportunities for Dutch Clean Energy Companies in China – 2013 Intelligent substations with storage solutions Local self-healing micro grid solutions Supply and demand matching technologies and solutions, such as TNO’s PowerMatcher Development of open standards for uniform, large scale integration of Smart Grid enabled equipment by the Flexiblepower Alliance Network (FAN), founded by TNO and Alliander.6 In addition to these areas, the Smart City Amsterdam includes different projects ranging from sustainable living, sustainable working, sustainable mobility and sustainable public space. Consumers use home management technologies to help reduce and shift energy consumption. In 2010 the Smart Energy Collective 5000 was organized; the collective is a cross-sector partnership between 23 companies in the Netherlands (including Alliander, Enexis, Stedin, IBM, Philips, Smart Dutch and Siemens). The collective planned large scale demonstration projects covering roughly 5000 residential and industrial customers.7 Ecofys, DNV KEMA and Utrecht University have collaborated on research to show how the integration of a large quantity of PV can be achieved cost-effectively, and how solar power can be effectively connected to consumers based on smart grids and demand response. The project partners developed and validated a solar forecasting prediction system, a tool that can better predict the performance of local PV installations.8 10 Azure International – Opportunities for Dutch Clean Energy Companies in China – 2013 3 Trends and drivers for clean energy technology in China 3.1 Macro drivers for clean energy Clean energy technology in China has advanced rapidly in the last five years, making China the largest clean energy market in the world, and there is no doubt this trend will continue. Several important drivers underlie China’s push towards clean energy: Urgency of shifting from coal: Among major world economic regions China is uniquely reliant on coal as a share of its energy mix, which has led to China becoming the largest greenhouse gas emitting country. Coal combustion is also one of the main contributors to urban air pollution. China has established targets for non-fossil energy—nuclear, hydro, biomass, wind and solar power—to rise from an 8% share of China’s energy mix in 2011 to 15% by 2020, but coal will still account for over 60% of China’s primary energy in that year.9 Urgency of addressing air pollution: Since Beijing began preparation for the 2008 Olympic Games China has made addressing urban air pollution a policy priority, however only in the past two years has the government made great strides in providing data and public health information regarding pollution. Hourly PM2.5 data from the Chinese government became widely available in 2012 and Chinese media began to devote substantially more coverage to air pollution events in 2013. The government also established its first major five-year plan targets for urban PM2.5 on a provincial basis. Urgency of water and carbon issues: China’s coal producing areas are mainly located in the northern provinces which also face mounting challenges with water supply and water pollution. Coal thermal plants typically consume large volumes of water.10 Proposed coalto-gas and coal-to-liquids projects have been criticized as further exacerbating this problem.11 Furthermore, urbanization, agricultural practices and the effects of climate change will continue to contribute to water shortages. Need to promote clean energy as part of industrial policy: From its inception, clean energy policy has been driven by economic and industrial goals, particularly in the area of renewable energy. China’s initial focus on relatively economical wind and bio-energy projects was designed both to take advantage of carbon credit trading and establish new industries that could eventually create export markets. The solar industry in China began as a low-cost export industry for the subsidized renewable energy markets in Europe and elsewhere, but in the last few years has risen from just 10% of the global solar market to 33%. 12 Recently, to cope with worldwide global manufacturing overcapacity, the government has focused on industry consolidation,13 while maintaining active policies and lending practices designed to encourage acquisition of key energy technologies, especially through the Strategic Emerging Industries plan.14 Need to shift towards circular economy in terms of resource utilization: Reducing reliance on export-oriented manufacturing has been a priority for years, and the government has tried to promote domestic consumption of goods and services and the creation of a so11 Azure International – Opportunities for Dutch Clean Energy Companies in China – 2013 called circular economy, which includes promoting water-saving and energy-saving products, waste reduction and recycling. The 2009 circular economy law states that, “The state encourages and guides citizens to use products and recycle products featured by energy saving, water saving, material saving and environmental protection, and reduce the generation and discharge of wastes.” 15 2013 marks a major leadership transition for China, and in the first few months of the year the state-run media have made it clear that the government intends to make environment a top priority—in other words, the quality of growth will be considered as well as the size of growth. The prior leadership team had established numerous policy goals related to environmental issues, including carbon emissions, energy intensity, clean water and clean air. In 2009 China’s State Council approved a commitment to reducing carbon intensity of GDP versus 2005 levels by 40-45% by 2020.16 The subsequent 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-2015) includes targets for energy intensity: China plans to achieve a 16% reduction in energy intensity, compared to a 19% reduction achieved in the prior five years.17 3.2 Policy targets for clean energy In addition to these measures, China has made renewable energy technology a leading industry and has devoted a large number of policies to its promotion. Not only have these policies helped establish a new, high-tech manufacturing industry in China for wind and solar, but they have slowly begun to transform China’s energy production. Near term targets in this area include: Wind: China had 78 GW of wind power installed at the end of 2012,18 of which 63 GW was connected to the grid.19 China’s official target for 2015 is for at least 100 GW of gridconnected wind capacity.20 Solar: China had 4.5-4.7 GW of solar PV installed at the end of 2012, accounting for just 14% of world installed capacity.21 In December 2012 China established a new 2013 installation target of 10 GW, which would more than triple the country’s total solar capacity.22 In January 2013, the National Energy Agency announced an unofficial 2015 total solar capacity target of 35 GW, up from the prior target of at least 21 GW.23 The new 35 GW target includes 10 GW of distributed solar.24 China anticipates reaching at least 50 GW of solar by 2020.25 Bio-energy: China's bio-energy production to end users experienced dramatic growth from 160 PJ in 2000 to more than 1500 PJ in 2010, and it is expected to further double during the 12th Five-Year Plan period (2011-2015). Bio-energy production accounted for around 0.6% of China's total energy consumption in 2012.26 Strong and Smart Grid: In 2009, the State Grid Corporation of China (State Grid) released an RMB 3.5 trillion investment plan called the strong and smart grid. The 11-year plan focuses on building high-voltage transmission, but includes RMB 384 billion for smart grid solutions.27 These investments will help increase the distribution efficiency of intermittent renewable sources, such as wind and solar.28 12 Azure International – Opportunities for Dutch Clean Energy Companies in China – 2013 3.3 Areas of policy uncertainty Overall, China’s targets in the field of renewable energy have had an impressive record of success, but there have been some areas of weakness and in several cases targets have not been met or policies have been announced and not carried through to implementation. Currently, there are several unsettled areas of policy surrounded clean energy. These include: Carbon taxes and carbon trading: Over the past several years there have been a number of announcements concerning introduction of carbon taxes, resource taxes or environmental taxes. In 2012 several cities and provinces were designated as pilot carbon trading regions, exchanges have been set up and several carbon credit trades have been made.29 However, in the absence of clear rules, allocation procedures, and properly benchmarked historical emissions measurements, the carbon trading market remains in its infancy.30 Renewable portfolio standards: In 2012 China announced a draft standard for the amount of renewable energy that would be generated by each province by 2015 from solar, wind and bio-energy.31 The plan could help address past problems caused by an emphasis on installed capacity as opposed to actual generation, as well as help more closely align renewable generation with provinces that have adequate transmission and local power demand. However, implementation schedules remain unclear.32 Coal caps: As part of China’s new aggressive campaign against air pollution, the central government in 2012 announced 2015 targets for PM2.5 levels in certain provinces.33 To achieve these targets the government has announced that coal consumption in certain regions would be reduced versus present levels—Hebei, Shandong and Beijing would have to reduce coal consumption by an absolute amount of 73 million tons, or 2.5% per year, between 2013 an 2017, a dramatic change versus business-as-usual growth of 6% for these same provinces.34 In March 2013, China announced a non-binding nationwide coal use cap of 3.9 billion tons for 2015,35 and in June 2013 stated that coal should account for no more than 65% of national energy use in 2017.36 These policies could have an immense impact on the way energy is produced and consumed in China, depending on how they are implemented. According to some studies, in the past, regional officials have evaded such targets by providing inaccurate statistics.37 Opening door to foreign participation in China’s energy sector: In early 2013 China completed a historic leadership transition. There has been considerable speculation about the degree of market-oriented reforms that will be pursued under the new leadership. After the conclusion of the 3rd Party Plenum in early November 2013, the government published a document covering decisions taken at the session, including a long section related to the reform of state-owned enterprises.38 Shortly after the Plenum, Premier Li Keqiang spoke at the China Council for International Co-operation on Environment and Development in Beijing about the need to open up the environment and renewable energy sectors to greater foreign cooperation.39 Most analysts agree that reform and opening of the state sector will take considerable time and require overcoming powerful interest groups that favor the status quo. 13 Azure International – Opportunities for Dutch Clean Energy Companies in China – 2013 3.4 Summary China’s increasingly aggressive targets for renewable energy and new goals for pollution reduction, combined with the urgent need to do more to meet the government’s vision of the China dream, imply opportunities across a range of clean energy industries. Though China faces immense challenges in transforming its economy from one based on heavy industry and energy from coal to one based more on a diversified economic base and fuel mix, including clean renewable energy, the country has already made great strides in establishing itself as a world leader in installed wind capacity and solar PV manufacturing. As these developments spread to new areas there will be a large scope for collaboration between China and other advanced industrial economies. The following chapters elaborate key developments in selected clean energy sectors. The figure below summarizes the key areas for collaboration between China and Dutch clean energy tech companies. A full circle on the China side implies strong capabilities, demand and focus, whereas a full circle on the Netherlands side signifies strong capabilities and supply. FIGURE: CHINA – NETHERLANDS COLLABORATION POTENTIAL 14 Azure International – Opportunities for Dutch Clean Energy Companies in China – 2013 4 Wind 4.1 Policy China was a late-comer to the race to adopt wind energy, but thanks to extensive policy support and targets for installations the country now leads the world in wind capacity, and Chinese wind manufacturers have generally succeeded in establishing themselves in foreign as well as domestic markets. Wind power in China has been a story of dramatic growth, but in recent years the industry has stabilized as developers cope with difficulties integrating wind with the country’s grid. China had 78 GW of wind power installed at the end of 2012,40 of which 63 GW was connected to the grid.41 China’s official target for 2015 is for at least 100 GW of grid-connected wind capacity, which the country should easily surpass based on present trends. China’s 2015 wind target also specifies that China should have 5 GW of offshore wind installed by that date, and wind power should contribute at least 190 TWh of generation to the grid each year.42 The generation target should help ensure that wind development policy focuses more on efficient and effective energy generation than on investment in capital equipment. FIGURE: CHINA WIND INSTALLED CAPACITY, 2004-2012, FORECAST FOR 2013 120 GW 100 GW 80 GW 60 GW 40 GW 20 GW 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Azure International For the wind sector, feed-in tariffs under national policy range from RMB 0.51/kWh and RMB 0.61/kWh. The tariff amounts are determined by geography, with the windiest regions offering lower tariffs. A small number of cities and provinces have established higher tariffs, 43 and there is currently no offshore wind tariff. 15 Azure International – Opportunities for Dutch Clean Energy Companies in China – 2013 FIGURE: WIND FEED-IN TARIFF FOR DIFFERENT REGIONS 黑龙江 吉林 新疆 辽宁 内蒙古 北京 天津 宁夏 青海 山西 陕西 西藏 河南 湖北 四川 重庆 Class I – RMB 0.51/kWh Class II – RMB 0.54/kWh Class III – RMB 0.58/kWh 湖南 贵州 云南 广西 山东 江苏 安徽 江西 福建 广东 Class IV – RMB 0.61/kWh Source: NDRC The sunniest and windiest regions are located in China’s North and West, which are lightly populated relative to China’s coastal regions. In the three provinces of Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and Gansu provinces, wind and solar developers suffer curtailment when local demand and transmission are insufficient to handle the power. The problem is getting worse: in 2012 curtailed wind energy doubled from the prior year.44 Curtailed power is currently not compensated, though the government may change this policy once measurement methods are in place.45 As a result of curtailment, wind developers have gradually shifted away from these regions, but the alternatives (such as coastal provinces) are also potential places for solar. In addition, regions with ample solar continue to promote large-scale solar facilities that dwarf local demand, causing concern that the solar industry will repeat the pattern experienced by wind.46 Subsidy payment delays can take place in areas with too many renewable plants relative to local load. This is because feed-in tariffs are paid by provincial grid companies to plant operators out of funds collected through a surcharge on most electricity customers, but for provinces like Gansu there is insufficient local surcharge collection to cover costs, and the province must receive payment transfers from other grid companies. A rapid increase in solar installations in certain regions with ample wind capacity will worsen the problem, since solar is compensated at an even higher feed-in tariff. As a result of payment delays, state-owned developers have no choice but to pass along the delays to their suppliers.47 4.2 Trends and major players China’s leading wind developers and manufacturers all faced tough times in 2012. Manufacturers in particular were hard hit by a decline in orders as developers worked through a backlog. Sinovel 16 Azure International – Opportunities for Dutch Clean Energy Companies in China – 2013 revenues have fallen from an RMB 2-3 billion quarterly run rate in early 2011 to just RMB 551 million in 3Q 2012. Goldwind revenues have fallen from a 3Q 2011 high of RMB 4.2 billion to RMB 2.5 billion in 3Q 2012. Ming Yang revenues have fallen from a high of RMB 1.9 billion in 3Q 2011 to RMB 788 million in 3Q 2012. Margins and profits have suffered as well. For developers the situation has been somewhat better, with revenues generally staying flat despite increased installation rates and net profit flat or falling. FIGURE: CHINA TOP 10 DOMESTIC AND FOREIGN WIND MANUFACTURERS, BY CUMULATIVE INSTALLED CAPACITY IN 2012 Goldwind Sinovel Dongfang Turbine Guodian United Power Vestas Gamesa Mingyang Shanghai Electric Sewind Xiangdian GE Wind - 2 GW 4 GW 6 GW 8 GW 10 GW 12 GW 14 GW 16 GW Source: Azure International Foreign wind manufacturers such as Vestas and Gamesa have also faced headwinds, and pointed to China as one of the main causes of the global wind slow-down. Gamesa’s reported Asia order intake fell from 343 MW in the first half of 2011 to 102 MW in the first half of 2012—Gamesa blamed project delays and grid connection problems for the drop. Vestas’ shipments to the Asia Pacific region fell from a 2011 high of 344 MW in 4Q 2011 to 101 MW in 3Q 2012. Lower shipments and orders supports the thesis that China has been working through a major overhang in orders, while installations have been showing a more stable pattern. The period of slower growth and absorption of inventory has led most players to deepen involvement in the international market, despite concerns that both Europe and North America are expanding less rapidly. Latin America, India and Australia are also expansion targets. Within China, developers continued to deepen their exposure to regions outside China’s top wind resource areas. The industry in 2012 faced a large overhang of manufacturing capacity at a time when cash flows were challenged by policy issues (late interconnections and slow payments of surcharge revenue, for example) and reduced international demand. Despite this anticipated return to prior levels, wind turbine manufacturers continue to make downbeat statements about prospects for 2013. For example, Sinovel Chairman Han Junliang, speaking in November 2012 at an industry 17 Azure International – Opportunities for Dutch Clean Energy Companies in China – 2013 conference, noted, “China’s wind market will be a bit arduous next year as it demands quite a process to cope with grid constraints, slowing growth and economic environment.”48 4.3 Future strategy and potential cooperation As noted above, the market for wind power in China has stabilized, and the country has developed a mature domestic wind industry. For large-scale projects in places like Inner Mongolia, domestic manufacturers have supplanted imports for wind turbines and towers, and development of renewable energy projects in China is relatively closed to foreign players. The 2011 intellectual property scandal involving Sinovel and American Superconductor also gave foreign companies pause, and the case has yet to complete its course through the Chinese court system. However, there remain a number of foreign companies participating in the Chinese wind industry, not only in the turbine market but also in the area of components, magnets, rotors, blades, power converters and advanced coatings. Given that growth in wind power capacity is shifting towards lower wind speed regions and offshore areas, technologies specific to overcoming these challenges will be in high demand. For many years China’s government has made offshore wind a development target, especially wind bases in intertidal areas, yet without providing the necessary policy support or pricing structures to reach its goals. Given the need to expand wind development offshore, these policy barriers will likely be temporary. When offshore wind does start to advance, China will need extensive offshore engineering and construction and offshore operations and maintenance experience, some of which will likely come from the international oil and gas sector. Such services could range from cranes and barges for offshore installation to cable-laying, advanced coatings and weatherization. Wind integration is another area where China urgently seeks solutions to the ever-greater problem of using the wind energy from turbines already installed or soon to be built. Needs include improved forecasting technologies, communications networks, remote monitoring and smart grid equipment. In the long-term, depending on the trajectory of technology cost, energy storage has potential for helping resolve wind curtailment problems in areas with high wind penetration. China is likely to continue to subsidize energy storage demonstration projects, some of which will include foreign technology. 18 Azure International – Opportunities for Dutch Clean Energy Companies in China – 2013 5 Solar China had 4.5-4.7 GW of solar PV installed at the end of 2012, accounting for just 14% of world installed capacity.49 In December 2012 China established a new 2013 installation target of 10 GW, which would more than triple the country’s total solar capacity.50 In January, the National Energy Agency announced an unofficial 2015 total solar capacity target of 35 GW, up from the prior target of at least 21 GW.51 The new 35 GW target includes 10 GW of distributed solar.52 China anticipates reaching at least 50 GW of solar by 2020.53 5.1 Policy In the last two years China has taken steps to boost domestic demand for solar, partly to resolve issues of overcapacity in the domestic solar manufacturing sector. In 2010, solar was generally seen as too expensive for the China market, and 95% of Chinese-made solar panels were for export,54 especially to Western European countries with attractive feed-in tariffs. As prices have come down, solar has become more competitive as an energy source. At the same time, price plunges have caused financial difficulties at solar manufacturers worldwide, including China. In 2012 world solar demand was estimated at 20 GW, compared to 40 GW of world manufacturing capacity, of which 20 GW was located in China.55 China’s new solar energy targets have been viewed in part as an effort to boost demand, but in the near term these measures are unlikely to be sufficient to resolve the overcapacity issue, and more insolvencies are anticipated. Solar feed-in tariffs vary by geography. As a result of falling solar PV prices, the National Development and Reform Commission recently reduced solar FITs in the sunniest regions. Tariffs now range from RMB 0.9/kWh to RMB 1.00/kWh. As of fall 2013, the government announced distributed PV projects will receive subsidies of RMB 0.42/kWh for all power generated, including self-consumed power;56 such subsidies can be paid monthly. FIGURE: 2013 SOLAR FEED-IN TARIFFS BY REGION Source: NDRC 19 Azure International – Opportunities for Dutch Clean Energy Companies in China – 2013 5.2 Projects and key players At the end of 2012 roughly 51% of China’s installed solar capacity was located in the four sunny provinces of Gansu, Qinghai, Xinjiang and Ningxia.57 Ground-mounted solar projects account for 80% of solar projects in China. FIGURE: PROVINCES WITH THE MOST ANNOUNCED SOLAR PROJECTS, MW Gansu Qinghai Xinjiang Jiangsu Ningxia Liaoning Shaanxi Shanghai Hebei Guangdong Hunan Zhejiang Yunnan Heilongjiang Anhui Jilin Hubei - 1,000 2,000 Existing 3,000 4,000 5,000 Planned 6,000 Source: Azure International China’s solar players include major companies in every stage of the value chain: silicon, cells, modules, panels, developers, power producers and service companies. Notwithstanding state support and rising solar installation targets to promote domestic consumption, upstream companies have struggled with market oversupply and many are now in parlous financial circumstances. The industry is likely entering a period of consolidation, especially among cell, module and panel makers. The victors are likely to be two or three of the strongest manufacturers along with the major power producers that could absorb existing solar companies. While the various solar manufacturing companies have differing levels of integration along the value chain, the top ten firms are remarkably similar in present output capacity, between 1,000 and 3,000 MW in output capacity. GCL-Poly has a very large wafer capacity but a supply glut for poly-silicon means much of this capacity is unused. Top Chinese solar manufacture companies are also concentrating on novel technology research areas. 20 Azure International – Opportunities for Dutch Clean Energy Companies in China – 2013 FIGURE: TOP CHINA SOLAR MANUFACTURERS BY PRODUCTION AND TYPE, 2012 Manufacturer Module capacity (MW) Cell capacity (MW) Ingot/wafer Poly-silicon capacity capacity (MW) (ton) Yingli Green Energy 2,450 2,450 2,450 Suntech 2,400 1,800 1,600 Trina Solar 2,400 2,400 1,200 Canadian Solar 1,400 JinKo Solar 1,300 1,200 1,200 JA Solar 2,000 2,800 1,000 Hanwha SolarOne 1,500 1,300 800 China Sunergy 1,200 1,000 GCL-Poly 8,000 Hareon Solar 1,000 1,550 515 Source: ENF, China Securities, company information Headquarters Baoding, Heibei Wuxi, Jiangsu Changzhou, Jiangsu Suzhou, Jiangsu Shangrao, Jiangxi Shanghai Shanghai Nanjing 65,000 Hong Kong Jiangyin, Jiangsu Web site http://yinglisolar.com http://suntech-power.com http://trinasolar.com http://www.canadiansolar.com http://www.jinkosolar.com http://www.jasolar.com http://www.hanwhasolarone.com http://www.chinasunergy.com http://gcl-power.com http://hareonsolar.com China’s major solar power developers are almost all either large state-owned enterprises, mainly in the energy sector, and large renewable energy players such as Longyuan and Suntech. The relative rankings of these players are likely to change substantially over the next two years as China’s solar build-out accelerates. FIGURE: TOP 14 CHINA SOLAR DEVELOPMENT COMPANIES BY 2012 INSTALLED CAPACITY, MW China Power Investment Corp China Energy Cons. & Env. Protection Datang Group Guodian Power China Guangdong Nuclear CHNT Longyuan China Aerospace Ningxia Electric Huadian Suntech SDIC Beijing Energy Investment China Huaneng - 200 400 600 800 Source: Azure International 5.3 Future strategy and potential cooperation Collaboration between Dutch and China in PV depends strongly on the state of the world solar market. While Chinese solar demand is rising due to favorable policies, worldwide oversupply of 21 Azure International – Opportunities for Dutch Clean Energy Companies in China – 2013 PV cells, modules and panels continues, leading to expectations of industry consolidation and near-term reduced manufacturing output. Chinese consolidation has already taken place, and more is likely. At the technology level, the most logical starting point for cooperation and collaboration is the 12th Five-Year Plan for the Chinese solar industry, which lays out priority areas for sector development.58 These research and development areas are as follows: High purity silicon: the plan calls for breakthroughs in “purification, high-efficiency nitrogen recovery and purification, high-efficiency chemical vapor deposition, and … utilization of poly-silicon by-products.” The plan also calls for large-scale production to reduce energy consumption below 120 kWh/kg. The acquisition of Elkem appears aligned with this goal. Silicon ingots/wafers: The plan calls for reducing silicon waste, increasing efficiency of silicon usage, developing quasi-single crystal technology and reducing cutting thickness to below 160 microns. Crystalline silicon: The plan focuses on “low-reflectivity texturing technology, selective emitter technology, electrode alignment technology, plasma passivation technology, lowtemperature electrode technology, and full back junction technology.” Thin-film cells: The plan lists a variety of R&D areas including: laminated and multijunction thin-film cells, reduced degradation, roll-to-roll production techniques for flexible silicon-based thin-film solar cells, copper indium gallium (di)selenide (CIGS) and organic thin-film cells, non-vacuum CIGS thin-film cells, magnetron sputtering cells, and vacuum co-evaporate cells. High-concentration solar cells: Among other areas, the plan proposes to develop 500x concentrating solar systems, and PV cells that can reach 35% (non-concentrated) conversion efficiency (40% under concentrated conditions). Building-integrated PV: The plan advocates “building materials that can be directly integrated into buildings, double-glass BIPV modules and insulating glass components that are applied to factory rooftops, agricultural greenhouses, and curtain walls.” Specialized PV production equipment: The plan advocates localization of technologies including large-scale silicon ingot and module automation as well as chemical vapor deposition and other thin-film processes. Ancillary materials: The plan promises to localize “production of crucibles, high-purity graphite, high-purity quartz sand, carbon-carbon composite materials, glass, ethylenevinyl acetate copolymer (EVA), backplane, electronic paste, and line cutting fluid.” Given the advanced state of the Netherlands chemical and basic materials sectors, and ongoing innovation in these areas, basic research on advanced solar PV appears to be a major area of potential collaboration with China. Scientific research collaboration through the Netherlands’ research base, in connection with companies or research institutions in China, is promising, though Chinese firms may need additional incentives to support Dutch research. In addition, acquisitions and consolidation will no doubt continue to speed the integration of the world’s crystalline silicon PV solar industry, with Chinese solar manufacturing and development firms taking the lead. 22 Azure International – Opportunities for Dutch Clean Energy Companies in China – 2013 6 6.1 Smart grids Policy China’s smart grid development plan is one of the most comprehensive and capital intensive in the world. Suppliers looking to participate in China’s smart grid market will primarily deal with China’s two main transmission and distribution operators, the State Grid Corporation of China (SGCC) and China Southern Power Grid Company (CSG), which respectively control roughly 80% and 20% of the nation’s T&D resources.59 Historically, State Grid has taken the lead in smart grid planning and development with CSG following suit.60 In 2009, the State Grid Corporation of China (State Grid) released an RMB 3.5 trillion investment plan called the strong and smart grid. The 11-year plan focuses on building high-voltage transmission, but includes RMB 384 billion for smart grid solutions, particularly user-sited equipment such as meters, dispatch equipment, and distribution substations.61 As a part of the plan, China has undertaken pilot projects and demonstration projects in a variety of high technology smart grid areas. A number of foreign technology providers have been able to establish cooperation partnerships to participate in smart grid development. Furthermore, China is leading in certain aspects of the grid-scale energy storage market, especially in the area of renewable integration. China’s Zhangbei project, which includes solar, wind and energy storage, is the largest such hybrid plant in the world.62 Since State Grid first introduced its Strong and Smart Grid Development Plan in 2009, its stated investment levels and installation goals have been revised several times. These changes reflect new priorities and resistance from the central government on State Grid’s UHV transmission development plans.63 From 2009-2020, the total smart grid investment is expected to reach RMB 3.8 trillion. According to a report released by State Grid in February 2013, during the 12th FiveYear Period (2011-2015) State Grid will invest RMB 1.6 trillion into grid expansion and upgrades, with RMB 286 billion—approximately 18%—going toward smart grid projects.64 The smart grid investment will be evenly divided between transmission and distribution level projects. 50% of distribution level investment will go towards rural electrification projects.65 6.2 Projects Smart grid project development in China spans the spectrum from early stage research and development to full-scale technology implementation. On the research and development side of the spectrum, both State Grid and China Southern Grid have invested significant time and money into producing and vetting technologies, ranging from MW-scale energy storage systems to 1000 kV UHV direct current (DC) transmission. On the full-scale installation and implementation side, State Grid and China Southern Grid have made significant progress with smart meters and EV charging infrastructure deployment. On both sides, a great deal of emphasis has been placed on the development of standards to support the smart grid: by 2015, State Grid aims to develop 93 standards across the value chain.66 23 Azure International – Opportunities for Dutch Clean Energy Companies in China – 2013 Zhangbei National Wind Solar and Energy Storage Demonstration Project This pilot project calls for 100 MW wind, 40 MW solar and 20 MW energy storage. Primarily an engineering test bed, the Zhangbei project was designed to test dispatch methodologies for a combined energy storage and renewable energy generation system. As of May 2013, 16 MW of energy storage are currently in operation, featuring 14 MW/63-MWh of lithium iron phosphate battery systems from four Chinese suppliers and one 2 MW/8-MWh vanadium redox flow battery from Prudent Energy. The project has a stated phase one investment of RMB 8 billion.67 China EPRI is currently planning the next phase of this project. Jindongnan-Jingmen UHV AC 1000-kV Demonstration Built in 2009, this 640 km line was State Grid’s first proof of concept for its ambitious UHV AC plans. This line, which has a rated capacity of 5 GW, serves as a critical connection between China’s North and Central power grids. However, lower than expected performance and higher than expected costs from this first project has caused China’s national government to reconsider its UHV plans.68 Since the completion of this project, only two other segments have been approved by the NDRC, well behind the schedule original laid out in State Grid’s 2009 Strong and Smart Grid Plan.69 Smart Substation Project As of September 2011, China State Grid had 74 digital stations either currently operating, under construction, or in the planning phase, 11 of which are at the 500-kV level.70 By 2015, all smart substations should be operational. State Grid plans to build 11 at the 500-kV level, four at the 330kV level, 22 at the 220-KV level, 32 at the 110-kV level and five at the 66-kV level. An important aspect of these projects has been the adoption of unified standards: all of these projects utilize the IEC61850 protocol. Distribution Automation China State Grid has established automated distribution systems in 23 municipalities and plans to expand to 53 in 2013.71 Distribution automation projects are primarily designed to address reliability and voltage issues in 35 kV and under networks. Through better monitoring and automated switchgear, Chinese grid operators can significantly lessen the scope and duration of power outages in rural grids, which average over 20 hours a year nationally. Nationwide Smart Meter Deployment China has been installing smart meters at a pace of 50-60 million a year. Unlike U.S. and European markets, many of these meters are AMR-type one-way communication devices that have limited functionality. GTM Research predicts that 300 million meters will be installed by 2015, with the average price of a residential meter being US$ 26. The Yuanta Group estimates that the smart 24 Azure International – Opportunities for Dutch Clean Energy Companies in China – 2013 meter market will be worth RMB 53 billion by 2020, with RMB 12 billion going toward three-phase meters for commercial and industrial loads and RMB 42 billion for single phase meters.72 Intelligent Communities Projects State Grid planned to establish 25 intelligent buildings/communities by 2011, with initial pilot projects occurring in Beijing, Chongqing, Hebei and Shanghai.73 These communities utilize two-way communication devices that pave the way for demand response applications. However, due to flat electricity rates for residential power consumers and limited consumer engagement, it is unclear how State Grid will use these initial pilot projects to create a commercial market for residential demand side management. Micro-grid Deployments Although not explicitly defined in the Strong and Smart Grid plan, micro-grid deployment has become a significant emerging trend in China. The central government has called for 130 projects by 2015. These projects-like the Sino-Singaporean Tianjin Eco-city Project that features a 2 MW lithium ion BESS-are important technology testing platforms for energy storage and small-scale renewable energy resources. Thus far, a majority of projects have been developed in rural and island locations. 6.3 Key players Domestic suppliers currently dominate the UHV transmission, transformation and smart meter markets. FIGURE: CHINA DOMESTIC SUPPLIERS Company Name Wasion Group Huawei XJ Electric BYD Main Business Leads the smart meter market. Works with Siemens and Cogo Group to offer higher-end AMR and AMI products Huawei has partnered with State Grid to lead the communication equipment market with offerings covering the entire grid-from generation to end-user, comprehensively called its 74 “One Net” solution This transmission and distribution equipment supplier is majority owned (60%) by State Grid. It is expected to continue to be a key supplier for transmission and distribution 75 substation projects. It was one of the top five smart meter suppliers in 2010 BYD is a key player in both the electric vehicle and energy storage markets. 25 Azure International – Opportunities for Dutch Clean Energy Companies in China – 2013 International leading transmission and generation infrastructure companies have targeted the Chinese smart grid market with varying degrees of success. FIGURE: INTERNATIONAL SUPPLIERS Company Name ABB Siemens GE Main Business ABB has been in the Chinese market since 1974 and supplies a range of transmission and distribution equipments. In 2012, ABB’s China sales reached US$ 5.2 billion. Recently, ABB has seen its UHV DC market share diminished by domestic suppliers who have developed their own thyristor technology but it continues to expand into related markets, like building energy management. Siemens first entered the Chinese market in 1872 and has had strong ties ever since. In 76 2012, Siemens China sales topped US$ 8.2 billion. Siemens is aiming to capitalize on China’s urbanization trends, supplying smart logistics services, building energy management systems and distribution level grid infrastructure. GE has participated in a number of smart grid collaboration projects in China. In January 2010, it formed a smart grid demonstration center with Yangzhou Beichen Electrical 77 Equipment Company, a subsidiary of SGCC. GE is bringing a wide array of smart grid solutions to the Chinese market, including wireless smart meters, residential demand energy management, automated outage management systems, network software and EV management systems. Joint ventures have reemerged as the preferred way for foreign technology providers to enter the Chinese market. Recently announced joint ventures have focused on information management, smart metering and energy storage segments. FIGURE: JV SUPPLIERS Company Name Atos Origin Echelon ZBB Energy Siemens ABB 6.4 Main Business Formed JV in May 2011 with telecom equipment provider ZTE to deliver smart meter 78 management and other IT solutions for the electric power industry. Formed JV in March 2012 with Holley Metering to target the smart meter market. 79 Formed JV in September 2011 with Xinlong Electrical and Wuhu Huarui Power to target the gridscale energy storage market. Announced JV in September 2012 with Wasion Group to target smart meter data management 80 and analysis segment. Formed JV in September 2011 with State Grid Nanjing Automation to research, develop and produce transmission and distribution level equipment. Future strategy and potential cooperation China’s large smart grid market appears to offer several niches where collaboration with other countries would benefit market development: There are prospects in demand side management but not demand response. Motivated by energy intensity reduction goals, increased adoption of time-of-use rates at commercial and industrial loads as well as the prospect of growing power shortages, there remains a significant opportunity to participate in the end-user segment of the smart grid market through software, monitoring and services. 26 Azure International – Opportunities for Dutch Clean Energy Companies in China – 2013 Data management, analysis and visualization: A number of foreign technology companies have technology offerings to contribute to this segment; however, a primary concern for the national Chinese government will be data security. While there will be opportunities to participate at the municipal and provincial level, it is highly unlikely that foreign firms will be able to manage this sensitive information at the national scale. Energy storage and EV technology are promising but both fields have yet become fully commercial markets, so companies will likely have to partner with Chinese firms to participate in government supported demonstration projects. 27 Azure International – Opportunities for Dutch Clean Energy Companies in China – 2013 7 Energy storage In 2012, China’s electrical grid will become the largest in the world in terms of both installed generation capacity and electricity produced. China also possesses the world’s largest installed wind power base and the world’s largest declared investment in renewable energy. These facts alone suggest that China is also the most attractive market for energy storage in the world, even though China currently has just 4% of the worldwide energy storage capacity. However, energy storage is a new technology that requires new market mechanisms to fully realize its potential to transform the power sector. There is significant precedent for such technology-driven shifts in industrial development. And given China’s rocket-like ascent to global cleantech energy leadership, it is reasonable to predict that China will help lead a global paradigm shift that establishes energy storage as a normal and ubiquitous component of our energy generation and distribution systems. 7.1 Policy Economic viability of grid energy storage depends on the structure and pricing mechanisms of power markets and public policies, which are deeply interrelated. The current design and structure of China’s power markets make energy storage economically unviable in several respects. Current wholesale pricing mechanisms are failing to incentivize investment in load-following capacity, ancillary services and even power generation. For instance, total compensation for ancillary services is less than a tenth that of the U.S., wholesale power prices generally do not vary during the day, and time-of-use (TOU) pricing is at the pilot stage in China. This limits energy storage for load-leveling and peak-shaving to a few cases. Because the magnitude of the wholesale, retail, and ancillary services market reforms that would be needed to make storage attractive in the near term, storage may find the most attractive growth opportunities in provinces with reform pilot programs, and in situations where storage has received direct policy support through subsidies, targets, or demonstration projects. China already has a number of direct policy supports for energy storage. However, these will take time to show results given the early stage of the market, the risk-averse nature of utility sector investors, and the need for longer utility experience with storage before it can cross the inflection point of rapid adoption. Over the last several years, the central government has released a number of policies with direct implications for energy storage in China. Much of China’s political process revolves around FiveYear Plans that set goals and agenda priorities for all levels of government. China's 12th Five-Year Plan includes a number of items related to alternative energy technology and policy. 28 Azure International – Opportunities for Dutch Clean Energy Companies in China – 2013 FIGURE: NATIONAL POLICIES RELATED TO ENERGY STORAGE Policy Issuing Ministry Year Content Summary PRC State Council 2006 Within the new energy materials section, it calls for the development of energy storage materials and systems. It also calls for the development of energy storage to aid the development of distributed generation. The Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress (NPCSC) State Grid 2010 Energy Storage mentioned as an enabling technology. 2011 These technical guidelines apply to all provinces under State Grid control. They apply to energy storage in parts of the grid operating at 35 kV or below. NDRC 2011 National 12th Five-Year Science and Technology Development Plan MOST 2011 Priority Development Guide for Hightech Industries (2011) NDRC, MOST, MIIT, MOF, State Intellectual Property Office 2011 The most important section of the catalogue, the encouraged articles, contains six articles related to energy storage. These articles can be classified into four categories: grid scale energy storage development and application, energy storage systems for light rail and regenerative braking, energy storage systems for electric vehicles (battery materials, separators, management systems and charging) and light engineering applications of energy storage. This plan lists renewable energy, smart grid and electric vehicle industries as key strategic industries. As a supporting technology, energy storage is listed as a strategic developing field—a government supported technology. For strategic fields, like energy storage, further development of core technology is the primary goal. This guide identifies 137 technologies within ten industries that are to receive stronger support and government focus. The goal of the Priority Development Guide for High-tech Industries (2011) is to promote industrial restructuring in order to align China’s industrial development with its new energy and environmental goals. This 2011 release builds upon the original 2007 policy. Long-term Scientific and Technological Development Plan 2006-2020 Renewable Energy Law, Amendment Technical Guidelines for Connecting Energy Storage in the Distribution Network Guiding Catalogue of Industrial Structure Development for 2011 Source: CNESA and Azure International Most of the policies mentioned are related to China’s industrial planning process. These policies contain guiding principles, or suggestions, intended to instruct provincial and city-level governments developing their own development plans. 29 Azure International – Opportunities for Dutch Clean Energy Companies in China – 2013 7.2 Projects Unlike in other countries, China’s grid energy storage market has developed with a focus on renewable energy integration, load-shifting and peak shaving. Whereas other countries have focused on power quality, ancillary services and similar applications. China is currently entering the demonstration phase of development for most energy storage technologies, and will take time to accumulate the experience and capabilities necessary to enter full commercialization. China has only a small number of energy storage companies currently active, though this should change rapidly once the market takes off. This report includes our forecasts for capacity and annual demand for various energy storage applications and technologies. Pumped hydro storage is forecast to double or triple by 2016 to 40-60 GW installed, while other storage technologies are forecast to rise from currently insignificant levels to over 750 MW installed by 2016. According to Yu Zhenhua, Chairman of the China Energy Storage Alliance, China’s energy storage industry is just entering the demonstration phase.81 Over the next several years, the Chinese government will need to support the development of the Chinese energy storage industry through a number of demonstration projects, covering an increasingly diverse set of applications and technologies. Almost all the industry players interviewed for this report echoed this sentiment. The Chinese government has already supported to several demonstration projects. The first phase of the Zhangbei National Wind Solar and Energy Storage Demonstration Project (100 MW wind, 40 MW solar and 20 MW energy storage) will begin full operation in the summer of 2012, once the last 6 MW of energy storage are installed. The second stage calls for the project to increase to 300500 of MW wind, 100 MW of solar and 110 MW of energy storage. In Guangdong and Hunan, two 10 MW energy storage demonstration projects are currently under development (4 MW of the first project and 2 MW of the second project are already in operation).In addition to these largerscale demonstration projects, a number of small PV integration and micro-grid demonstration projects began operation in 2011, primarily in rural and remote grid locations. 7.3 Key players This section profiles the top 20 energy storage manufacturers in China. The content is based on Azure International’s investigation and interviews with producers of lithium ion batteries, flow batteries, lead acid batteries and flywheels. The information is presented in alphabetical order by company name. 30 Azure International – Opportunities for Dutch Clean Energy Companies in China – 2013 FIGURE: OVERVIEW OF COMPANIES Technology Year Founded Production Capacity* Revenue LFP. Li-polymer 1999 2013E: 5 GWh 2013E: US$ 3.2 billion Anhui Meineng ZnBr Flow 2011 2012E: 200 MWh - Boston Power LiCoMn 2005 2012E: 400 MWh Company ATL - LFP 1995 2013E: 4 GWh VRB Flow 2006 2012E: 500 MWh LFP 2007 2012E: 576 MWh LFP, Li-polymer 2001 2012E: 120 MWh MGL NCM, LCO 2000 2012E: 6.5 GWh 2011: US$ 7.7 billion 2013E: US$ 284 million (VRB only) 2011: US$ 14 million 2011: US$ 219 million - Dalian Rongke VRB Flow 2008 2012: <100 MWh - Desay Battery LFP, Li-polymer 1983 - Sail Battery Pb-Acid, Li-ion 1958 2011: 3.5 GWh PbAcid 2011: US$ 362 million 2011: US$ 635 million VRB Flow 2003 - - Horizon Haode Adv. Pb-Acid 2011 2012E: 550 MWh - Tianjin Lishen LFP 1997 2011: 1.5 GWh VRB Flow 2009 2010: 12.5 MW 2011: US$ 295 million - LFP 2008 2011: 832 MWh - Pb-Acid, NiMH, Liion 1982 2011: 7.6 MWh LFP - Wanxiang LFP 1969 2012E: 2.5 GWh 2010: US$ 10.4 billion Yingli Solar Flywheel 1987 2015E: 50 MW - 2013E: 2.5 GWh 2014E: US$ 7.8 billion BYD Chengde Wanlitong CALB China BAK Golden Energy Fuel Cell Prudent Energy RealForce Huanyu Zhuhai Yintong LTO 2004 Note: Information based on manufacturer interviews and published company information. * Some figures based on overall business while others are based on energy storage segment only. Source: Azure International Only a handful of Chinese energy storage manufacturers have participated in large-scale demonstration projects. Among Chinese energy storage developers, BYD and Prudent Energy stand out as the only companies with large-scale project both in China and abroad. Sail Battery, China’s leading Pb-Acid battery manufacturer, stands out due to the sheer number of small-scale projects that have incorporated its Pb-acid cells. 31 Azure International – Opportunities for Dutch Clean Energy Companies in China – 2013 7.4 Future strategy and potential cooperation China has a unique need for energy storage technology. As energy storage technology is still in early stage, there are great opportunities for international companies to provide advanced technology and room for the cooperation between China and other countries are enormous. Government policy will likely drive the China energy storage market over the next few years, so government plans for the industry essentially set the terms for attractive areas of international cooperation. The National Energy Administration’s National Energy Technology 12th Five-Year Plan identifies key energy storage technologies and calls for a number of specific R&D and demonstration projects: 10 MW large-scale supercritical compressed air energy storage demonstration MW-scale flywheel energy storage demonstration project MW-scale superconducting magnetic energy storage (SMES) project MW-scale NaS battery demonstration project MW-scale flow battery demonstration project Energy storage R&D and associated development goals include the following: Develop metal-air and other new advanced battery technologies Develop enabling technologies for large-scale supercritical compressed air energy storage Further develop ion exchange membranes for flow batteries Establish a platform for the development of technology and engineering standards Create a stronger system for energy storage intellectual property protection Establish greater international communication and cooperation for new technology development While the NEA’s policy demonstrates strong government support for the development of energy storage, it does not contain details concerning how these projects are to be financed. As such, the above goals should be viewed as an industry development wish list rather than as binding government commitments to the energy storage industry. 32 Azure International – Opportunities for Dutch Clean Energy Companies in China – 2013 8 8.1 Bio-energy Current Status and Trends China's bio-energy production to end users experienced dramatic growth from 160 PJ in 2000 to more than 1500 PJ in 2010, and it is expected to further double during the 12th Five-Year Plan period (2011-2015). Bio-energy production accounted for around 0.6% of China's total energy consumption at 3.62 billion tons of standard coal equivalent in 2012.82 Power generation from biomass is about 38 TWh in 2012, contributing around half of the total bio-energy production, followed by biogas production of 16 billion m3, mostly through anaerobic digestion with household-scale systems.83 FIGURE: BIO-ENERGY PRODUCTION IN CHINA 2000-2015 Source: NEA Bio-energy policies have several objectives: promoting clean energy, mitigating energy shortages, diversifying energy supply, accelerating the industrialization of agriculture, and improving rural living standards. Under the 12th Five-Year Plan, the annual utilization of bio-energy will exceed 50 million tons of standard coal equivalent, and annual output value will reach RMB 150 billion.84 8.2 Gaseous bio-energy As early as the 1970s, to solve energy shortages in its vast rural areas, China promoted biogas technologies and utilization. By the end of 2010, 40 million rural households were using biogas, with the total annual production volume reaching 13 billion m3, and another 1 billion m3 of biogas was generated from 50,000 livestock and poultry farms.85 In 2012 total biogas production was 16 billion m3.86 The 2015 target is 22 billion m3, excluding biogas-to-electricity. Distributed household digesters in rural areas account for more than 85% of the total biogas production. The substrate used for digestion is mostly manure from family-raised livestock, as well 33 Azure International – Opportunities for Dutch Clean Energy Companies in China – 2013 as human excrement. The average capacity is 8-10 m3 and the biogas produced is mainly used for cooking and lighting. To encourage the adoption of household biogas systems, the national government provides subsidies of RMB 1300-3500 per installation.87 Biogas production from livestock and poultry farms is growing faster than that from household systems, as fewer peasants raise pigs individually and more are raised at larger farms. While initial projects in the 1980s and 1990s focused on rural applications below 1 MW thermal capacity, current developments are increasingly focused on larger scale developments for power production in the range of 5-15 MW electric capacity, a trend that should continue.88 8.3 Liquid bio-energy Currently liquid bio-fuel accounts for less than 0.5% of China's transportation fuel, with 1.8 million tons of bio-ethanol and 0.5 million tons of bio-diesel produced in 2010.89 China initially promoted biofuel under the 11th Five-Year plan (2006-2011), but later bio-fuel market demand dropped and bio-fuel manufacturing experienced over-capacity. The 12th Five-Year Plan on Renewable Energy raised the target of liquid bio-fuel utilization to 5 million tons, including 4 million tons of ethanol and 1 million tons of biodiesel in 2015.90 New production of ethanol will come from sorghum and cassava. The main sorghum regions are Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia, Shandong and Jilin, while 90% of cassava resources are located in Guangdong and Guangxi.91 Bio-diesel production will be mainly from waste kitchen oil and waste animal oil. China has technical standards for bio-diesel blending with diesel and ethanol blending with gasoline, but lacks national-level mandatory requirement for bio-diesel sale and use.92 Preferential tax subsidies exist for bio-diesel and bio-ethanol sale and production, but not for end user consumption.93 However, since 2012 China has discouraged bio-ethanol from food-crops and hence reduced direct subsidies and increased VAT in some areas.94 Bio-ethanol: In the 12th Five-Year Plan, China aims to increase the bio-ethanol production to 4 million tons in 2015, versus 1.8 million tons in 2010. Beginning in 2002, China developed its bioethanol industry to deal with over 100 million tons of rotten grains that China had stored for food security reasons. However, the Ministry of Agriculture (MOA) in 2007 released a biomass industry plan stating that bio-energy development cannot compete with food and arable land resources, shifting focus to next-generation technologies such as cellulose-derived ethanol.95 Bio-diesel: The target for bio-diesel production in the 12th Five-Year Plan is 1 million tons in 2015, doubling the production in 2010. China started bio-diesel development in the 9th Five-Year Plan period (1996 to 2000). MOST listed R&D on bio-diesel as part of the national 863 Plan.96 The three oil giants in China—CNPC, Sinopec and CNOOC—have each developed their own bio-diesel demonstration projects in Sichuan, Guizhou and Hainan, respectively, using Jatropha as the raw material. So far only the 60,000-ton production line in Hainan, developed by CNOOC has been in operation, whose technology provider is the University of Sichuan.97 Sichuan Gushan, Hainan Zhenghe and Fujian Zhuoyue have established a production line of 10,000-20,000 tons annual capacity, using kitchen waste oil and acidic oil.98 Tsinghua University, China Research Institute of 34 Azure International – Opportunities for Dutch Clean Energy Companies in China – 2013 Petroleum Processing, Zhejiang University of Technology, and Beijing University of Chemical Technology are conducting independent research on bio-diesel technologies, such as low-cost enzyme for bio-diesel from animal and vegetable fat under room temperature, the synthesis of diesel from non-edible plant oil and from micro-algae.99 8.4 Solid Bio-energy 8.4.1 Solid Biomass to Electricity China generates a significant amount of power from bio-energy and the country has set targets which specified the target of power generation capacity from biomass at 5.5 gigawatts (GW) in 2010 and 30 GW in 2020.100 The target for 2015 is 13 GW, including 8 GW from agricultural and forestry biomass, 2 GW from biogas, and 3 GW from solid waste incineration, and the annual power generation from each source is 48, 12 and 18 terawatthours (TWh), respectively.101 The Renewable Energy Law requires grid companies to purchase 100% of power produced from covered sources, and includes an RMB 0.25 per kWh Feed-in tariff (FiT) established for biomass power delivered to the grid above the local price for coal power of an average RMB 0.4 per kWh.102 This is further boosted by a FiT of fixed total RMB 0.75 per kWh for using agriculture and forestry biomass since late 2010, replacing the previous RMB 0.25 per kWh premium subsidy.103 Table: China's Biomass-to-Electricity Development (2010-2015) Power Generation (TWh) Installation (GW) 2010 2011 2012 2015 target 2010 2015 target Ag/forest 3.6 4 - 8 - 48 MSW 1.7 1.7 - 3 - 18 Biogas 0.2 0.2 - 2 - 12 Total 5.5 5.9 9.12 13 33 78 Direct combustion in dedicated biomass power plants: China has mature technologies of biomass power generation under high temperature and pressure conditions. Guangdong Yuedian Group brought world's largest biomass power plant online in November 2011, installing two 50 MW capacity units using fluid-bed technology and agricultural and forest residue as feedstock.104 In addition, Wuhan Kaidi Electric has developed three biomass power projects, which were all operational by May 2012, using a high-temperature and ultra-high pressure circulating fluid-bed boiler.105 35 Azure International – Opportunities for Dutch Clean Energy Companies in China – 2013 Municipal Solid Waste-to-Energy: China produced about 221 million tons of municipal solid waste (MSW) in 2010, with annual growth of 8-10%.106 In 2010, between 77% and 80% of MSW was sent to landfills.107 However, due to the rapid growth of MWS generation, existing landfill sites are estimated to be full in recent 3-5 years.108 To solve this problem, Chinese government is promoting incinerating MSW for power generation. The national incineration capacity is planned to grow from 89,600 tons daily in 2010 (32.7 million annually) to 300,000 tons daily (109 million tons annually ) by 2015, an implied annual growth rate of 27%. This implies that in 2015 one third of MSW will be incinerated for power generation.109 However, because China lacks an effective MSW separation system, Chinese MSW has a high water content, and incineration is usually incomplete. It is estimated that about 20% of residues (by weight) are produced after incineration, which still needs to be landfilled. Moreover, toxic flue gas, especially dioxin, causes severe health issues to residents surrounding the plants.110 8.4.2 Solid Bio-fuel Boilers The utilization of solid biomass is minimal. In 2010, only 3 million tons of briquettes were used for heating boilers and as bio-charcoal.111 For briquetting, the currently wide-applied solid biomass briquette manufacturing equipment in China is of small capacity at one ton per hour. The annual production is about 280,000 tons, accounting for over 90% of the total production. For large-scale industrial use, China has imported more than 20 large biomass compression molding production lines. By the end of 2008, China had completed 102 biomass solid molding factories in Beijing, Liaoning, Heilongjiang, Sichuan, Shandong, and Henan.112 For combustion, there are about 400,000 biomass stoves in China in 2009.113 Small-scale biomass stove and boiler technology developed rapidly after the release of the Renewable Energy Law in 2006. 8.5 Conclusions Because of the size of the Chinese market and the many existing policies to promote bio-energy in all its forms, all areas of bio-energy have some appeal for international collaboration. There are three broad areas with particular attraction for collaboration between the two countries: (1) Biomass-to-electricity, including biomass co-firing with coal as well as MSW-to-electricity are areas where the Netherlands has broad experience and where China is beginning increase the scale of power plants. Given the diversity of biomass-to-electricity projects and technical engineering difficulties entailed, it is likely many companies will need to cooperate to make efficient use of this resource over the long term. (2) Currently China has some domestic gas upgrading technologies, but their high cost makes the market potentially appealing for foreign manufacturers. Flue-gas cleaning is widespread in Chinese factories but the quality is relatively low and operational issues suggest ample room for improvement. Improved gas cleaning could also benefit MSW plant operation. (3) Cellulosic ethanol and algae-based biofuels appear to offer long-term promise as transportation fuels. Since research institutes in both China and the Netherlands are actively developing cellulosic ethanol and algae-based biofuel technologies, collaborations are already underway, and these links will likely continue to deepen. 36 Azure International – Opportunities for Dutch Clean Energy Companies in China – 2013 9 Investment trends in and out of China China and the Netherlands: the two countries have dramatic differences in population, growth and development. What they have in common is a desire to develop clean energy technology and bring such technology to the global marketplace. The Netherlands stands to benefit from a number of trends in China cleantech outbound investment. After China initiated the outbound investment strategy as a part of national policy in 2000, the country gradually picked up the pace of global investment, with an emphasis on a small number of markets (such as North America) and a narrow focus on resource acquisition, particularly in oil, gas, copper, iron and steel. With the most recent 12th Five-Year Plan, it is clear that this focus has shifted towards giving much more attention to technology at the national level. At the company level as well, Chinese corporate investors are looking to M&A and investment in more complex ways. New motives include gaining management talent, scientific knowhow, engineering experience, solid brands, and technology or market synergies. 9.1 China outbound deals focus on Strategic Emerging Industries China’s economic rise has been attended by enormous ecological consequences, but at the same time China’s government has successfully prioritized clean and renewable energy, in the process transforming the country into a cleantech industrial powerhouse. China’s renewable energy is spurred by government targets, subsidies, low-cost loans from state-owned banks, and most particularly the set of industries defined as Strategic Emerging Industries, SEIs, in China’s 12th FiveYear Plan. The majority of the SEIs have a clean energy component, including obviously new energy, energy savings and environmental protection, and new energy vehicles, but also to a lesser extent next generation IT (such as advanced meters), advanced materials and advanced manufacturing. Within these SEIs, the government has established remarkably specific goals for technology China should have mastered. Investment, international cooperation and acquisitions are all explicit methods for acquiring mastery in strategic fields, which is reflected in recent dealflow. For example, the Hanergy acquisition of Miasole (a U.S.-based thin-film developer) and the Wanxiang acquisition of A123 appear clearly aligned to acquire technologies in SEIs. China’s support for outbound foreign investment is highly selective. Policy changes related to outbound investment are, in general, not designed to liberalize the market. Instead, they are designed to expand markets for Chinese companies and acquire technology and knowhow for important industries. Industries falling outside the government’s defined scope may struggle to attract investment. Market openness is also a concern. Although senior Chinese policy-makers have said that foreign companies would be able to participate on equal terms in Strategic Emerging Industries, domestic companies are often given preference.114 37 Azure International – Opportunities for Dutch Clean Energy Companies in China – 2013 9.2 China outbound investment is growing, both for M&A and VC/PE China’s outbound M&A activity reached a record high in 2012 as Chinese enterprises continued to seek deals abroad, especially in the energy and resources sectors. From 2008-2012, Outbound M&A grew at an average CAGR of 58%. State-owned enterprises (SOEs) provided a majority of the investment, accounting for 83% of deal value, while private firms accounted for a majority of the deals, 73% of total deal volume. FIGURE: CHINA OUTBOUND M&A 2008-2012 250 70 Value (left axis) 50 150 40 30 100 Number of Deals Deal Value (US$ Billion) 60 Deals (right axis) 200 20 50 10 0 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: PWC, Azure 2012 was a slow year in terms of fundraising and investment in China. Domestic investment dropped from 362 deals worth US$ 6.2 billion in 2011 to 202 deals worth US$ 3.7 billion in 2012. Fundraising also fell well short of 2011’s historic highs, the total value of new USD-denominated funds fell 36% from 2011 to 2012. Market inhibitors in 2012 may become market drivers in 2013. A number of disappointing IPOs in early 2012 forced many VC-supported firms to enter a holding pattern. In 2012, there were 98 IPO exits compared to 171 in 2011.115 IPO activity should increase in 2013, bolstered by recent upswings in global stock exchanges and built up backlog. In addition, overcapacity in global solar, wind and LED industries has also created a buyer’s market for firms looking to acquire resources and next generation technologies. Government support and the global economic environment are encouraging outbound investment. Since 2010, the Chinese government has now officially prioritized outbound investment over inbound direct investment. 116 A number of recent changes to outbound investment regulations have expedited the outbound investment approval process while opening up investment to high net wealth individuals. This will enable private investors-the fastest growing outbound investor class-to pursue more deals abroad with less government oversight. 38 Azure International – Opportunities for Dutch Clean Energy Companies in China – 2013 9.3 The geography of investing is shifting Even as recently as five years ago, China foreign outbound investment was essentially limited to North America, Asia and one or two deals elsewhere, typically in the developing world. The focus at that time was also clearly on resource acquisition. Given China’s need to diversify foreign exchange holdings and the need for major SOEs to diversify their businesses globally, it is unlikely that big-dollar dealflow will taper off. Instead, what has already happened is that deals are diversifying, particularly in terms of geography. Chinese cleantech companies looking to boost margins are actively pursuing a policy of vertical integration, expanding into both upstream and downstream segments of the value chain. This expansion is not only motivated by profit margins but also the fact that high labor inflation is eroding Chinese companies’ major competitive advantage—low cost manufacturing. Although many Chinese cleantech firms have established good reputations regarding their technology, they need to improve their sales and service capabilities. To succeed in foreign markets, renewable firms, particularly solar firms, need to learn how to function in a fragmented market that places more emphasis on quality of service. Downstream investments and acquisitions will focus on new sales channels and service networks. Established cleantech manufacturers will require a stronger on the ground presence in foreign markets to provide proper distribution and after sale services. In developed markets this can be pursued through acquisitions of local companies with strong sales support networks and brand recognition. In developing markets, Chinese firms will look to establish manufacturing and build new brands. Upstream acquisitions will focus on technology and manufacturing advances. 9.4 Private companies are coming to the fore Private firms are driving outbound investment growth. Private firms set new records in terms of absolute deal value and percent of overall investment in 2012.117 Private investment growth continues to gain on state-owned enterprise investment with private M&A deals accounting 39% of deal value in 2012 compared to 22% of deal value in 2011.118 Although private firms are subject to more rigorous approval processes, they have several advantages over SOEs in the global M&A market. Private firms are less bureaucratic and are more motivated by commercial interests. Many private Chinese firms have foreign stock market listings, giving them better access to offshore capital markets and more transparency.119 Another encouraging sign is the size of deals. Although the average deal size by year for outbound investments ranged widely between a low of US$ 21 million in 2003 and a high of US$ 489 million in 2009, the largest number of deals from 2002-2011 fell into the range of US$ 1-10 million.120 According to a recent Deloitte survey, of 69 M&A practitioners surveyed, 78% expect average outbound M&A deal size to be less than US$ 300 million.121 9.5 China’s cleantech investing interests diversifying Looking purely at the venture capital segment of China’s investment sector, it is clear that the focus on new technology is rapidly diversifying to new sectors of cleantech. Early on, just a few 39 Azure International – Opportunities for Dutch Clean Energy Companies in China – 2013 sectors attracted interest in terms of funds invested, particularly waste and water treatment and solar. Solar investments led the industry several years ago but are now largely ignored, reflecting overcapacity in PV manufacturing and silicon supply, among other factors. (Large Chinese power groups have continued to invest abroad in solar, however.) Through analyzing China’s top five cleantech VCs investment trends over time, one can see a clear trend towards diversification and new sectors.122 In particular, LEDs and new materials are capturing significantly more attention in recent years. FIGURE: CLEANTECH VC SEGMENTS BY YEAR FOR TOP FIVE CHINA CLEANTECH VC FIRMS 100% Others 90% Wind 80% Waste/Water Treatment 70% Sustainable Transportation Sustainable Agriculture 60% Solar 50% Other Generation 40% New Materials 30% LED 20% Grid Energy Efficiency 10% Cleaner Coal 0% 2003 2004 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Battery/ES Source: Azure International and company information In looking at the number of investments by industry segment per year, definite trends emerge. 2008 is by far the most diverse year, mostly reflecting that Tsing Capital was beginning to invest from its CEF III Fund. From 2008 to 2010, battery and energy storage technology became very popular but it enthusiasm quickly faded, mirroring the rise and fall of interest in electric vehicles in the global market—a trend that might now reverse. Finally, the most dominant trend featured in this figure is the growing optimism in the LED industry from 2010 to 2012. Despite production overcapacity in 2012, venture capitalists in China are still bullish about the long term prospects of the LED lighting industry. Innovative LED lighting producers are receiving significant government support as the nation tries to develop its own core IP. Chinese venture capital firms typically invest in foreign technologies that have a strong cost reduction or sales potential in the Chinese market. These investments also reflect deficiencies in domestic technology: Chinese VC firms invest abroad when domestic technology is limited or uncompetitive. In recent years, we see increased investment in new material and battery and energy storage segments. This trend should pick up as slower than expected growth in global electric vehicle and energy storage markets leaves many early stage companies stranded, allowing Chinese firms to acquire superior foreign technologies at bargain prices. 9.6 Conclusions on China Outbound Investment Trends China outbound investment has reached an exciting new phase, as a result of a growing domestic clean energy industry and a new central government push towards strategic industrial acquisitions. In several important areas of clean energy, China has already established itself as a 40 Azure International – Opportunities for Dutch Clean Energy Companies in China – 2013 leader in a field with shrinking margins due to commodity oversupply. As a result, leading clean energy companies, as well as government agencies, are looking to both consolidate the industry while expanding into high technology. European countries, with their highly professional research and development centers and long-standing commitment to sustainable development, continue to lead in many fields of cleantech where China would like to expand. China-Europe dealflow is still small, but seems poised to grow, especially as private deals and small deals become more common. 41 Azure International – Opportunities for Dutch Clean Energy Companies in China – 2013 10 Guidance on a successful China strategy Doing business in China has been an attractive proposition for Western companies for many years, but many companies and organizations have been reluctant to devote significant time to expanding in China due to the many perceived difficulties and uncertainties. Though many Chinese speak English, the cultural and language barriers can be quite high. The role of companies and governments in society is different as well. Added to these issues are concerns about intellectual property and complying with complex legal and regulatory mandates. Nevertheless, many Western companies have been successfully doing business in China for years—and not all are giant multi-national conglomerates. The purpose of this chapter is to both give guidance on China market entry and briefly debunk some of the myths about doing business there. 10.1 Starting notions on China China is a big country: It may seem obvious, but one of the first lessons about doing business is understanding the size and complexity of the China market. First-tier cities like Shanghai and Beijing bear little resemblance to the small villages of Yunnan or the vast empty wastes of Xinjiang. In the energy market, policies and market design vary substantially among provinces, as does openness to international cooperation. National policies and directives may be issued in Beijing with only broad guidance for local officials on how to meld them with other priorities and directives, leaving substantial leeway in how and whether to implement them. Demonstration cities or projects may adopt policies, rules or pricing that enable major leaps in technology deployment. In other cases, pilot cities or projects may be announced and then not go forward. These are just a few examples to illustrate how understanding the China market at the ground level, including in the energy and environment fields, takes time and effort. Connections matter, but aren’t everything: Tourist guidebooks and business magazines are all quick to bring up the issue of guanxi, connections, and rightly so. Connections are critical to many Chinese in getting ahead in a career, doing business deals and overcoming regulatory hurdles. That said, connections aren’t everything, and many a Western company has been lured by the promise of high-level connections only to find themselves at a dead-end. In China, as most places, what matters most is the business case. A technology with higher quality, better performance or lower cost will find partners and buyers in China, while those without appealing characteristics will not move forward on connections alone. Technology companies working in China are better off seeking partners with technical experience, engineering capability, and a real track record of project success. In the absence of such expertise or subject-area track record, the idea that a company can pay a single well-connected individual who can influence the right government agencies and make things happen is usually an expensive illusion. Cultural differences matter: Though business sense and good technology can go a long way towards overcoming cultural barriers, the time needed to do so may be longer than anticipated. Chinese business culture is hierarchical, centralized, and focused on decisions taken by a few key leaders. The process for reaching decisions may not always be transparent, and in many cases companies or individuals may repeatedly express a high degree of enthusiasm for undefined 42 Azure International – Opportunities for Dutch Clean Energy Companies in China – 2013 cooperation, without ever showing interest in moving to next steps. Fancy dinners and expensive drinks don’t imply a done deal. One of the most complex elements in securing true cooperation is finding officials at the right level to deal with a topic directly. Even when access to the right level is open, there may be secrets and hidden motivations that act against progress. Officials may be embarrassed to openly recognize the reasons for lack of cooperation. Experience of a Dutch Entrepreneur: “Take time” We4Ce provides engineering licenses for rotor blade designs for wind turbines in the MW classes 1.5-2.0-2.5-3.0-5.0-6.0. The company was established in 2008 and was almost directly active in China. Currently China represents 60% of annual turnover of the company and We4Ce is well established in China with 7 of the top 10 Chinese wind turbine manufacturers as their client. What sets We4Ce apart is its focus on innovation. This allows the company to stay ahead of its clients by ensuring ever better performance of the blades against the best cost price, while making sure that their clients keep coming back to them. “You have to make sure that you have something they can’t make yet themselves,” says Director Arnold Timmer. Despite the success of We4Ce Arnold Timmer cautions against high expectations of quick returns. “Take the time to invest in relationships and getting to know the market,” he says. It took We4Ce at least 2 years to get started in China and the company had to invest significantly in marketing and trips. “At first, a lot of doors were closed. But, as our presence in China increased the doors started to open.’ Arnold Timmer explains that they first started with an agent who they already knew for a long time and had a strong trust relationship with. To enforce the idea of being present in China Arnold Timmer or his colleague Hendrik Jan Zwanenburg would often accompany their agent in meetings and would make a trip to China about every 6 weeks or so. Since 2010 We4Ce has its own a Representative Office in China. Behind the successes is also a process of trial-and-error. Timmer emphasizes the importance of managing relations carefully. “Chinese want to know that they can trust the persons behind the business. It takes time to build that trust and you should be prepared to invest in this type of relationship building. It is much less contract based and transactional than in Europe.” “And, you also have to be flexible,” stresses Timmer as he recounts experiences of protracted negotiations that forced him to reschedule flights several times and of trip schedules that came together at the last moment and kept changing. Finally, Timmer argues that maintaining face and showing respect is critically important to doing business in China. This is often difficult as we cannot always ‘read’ the situation and the underlying dynamics with our Chinese counterparts. Timmer has experienced that it can be helpful to have other people help you with this – “you can’t do it alone.” Chinese companies often want control: The Chinese market is huge and China has some of the largest companies in the world—including many industrial behemoths unknown outside the borders of a single province. Chinese companies are often looking to do deals to acquire 43 Azure International – Opportunities for Dutch Clean Energy Companies in China – 2013 technologies and know-how. In many cases, deals may be motivated by vertical integration and the desire to control the supply chain. Simply becoming an intermediary or a distributor may not hold sufficient attraction. Of course, this depends on the technology and the nature of cooperation. Intellectual property can be protected: Given some high profile cases of intellectual property disputes, many Western companies are rightly concerned about this issue. Even companies looking to find a partner for a strategic sale of technology would need to be concerned. There are a number of different tactics companies can use to ensure IP protection. The first and most important is a good partner screening process. Before beginning detailed partner discussions, companies should focus on developing a list of high-potential partners and ranking them using specific criteria. Chinese conglomerates are often much more complex and opaque than Western equivalents, and understanding areas of overlap and competition can be difficult, especially in cases of hidden ownership or control structures. The role of local government relationships is also important: does the local government have a key interest that would be helped or hurt by a business deal? Doing a distributed solar deal with a property developer might not make sense if it goes against the interest of the local solar manufacturing firm, even if the two are located in different cities. 10.2 Towards effective strategies While it is impossible to define a single success recipe for entering the China market and each company’s experience is different and unique, there are a number of common steps and processes that often underlie successes. These processes and steps are based on the above starting notions for doing business in China. They are designed to focus on the underlying business case for collaboration and to ensure the best possible strategic alignment between Western and Chinese business partners. The initial phase focuses on developing the market entry strategy. This entails learning as much as possible about the market, policies, the value chain and key players relevant to your business. The resulting analysis is then used to define the business plan for China. It is important to note that this China business plan may deviate from the original company business plan in terms of how products, services and partnerships are defined. Considering the strategic importance of the China market in cleantech today, it is vitally important for many companies to go through this phase, whether or not it results in an actual entry into China or not. In today’s cleantech market you need to know the impact of the China market on your business and you need to have a plan for it. Investors, clients and partners will be asking for it. And, if you don’t come to China, China may come to you. The next phase is to select the right business partners. The right business partners are those that have the right capabilities and who’s business interests are fully aligned with yours. There are many different types of partners, many different reasons for partnering and various forms of structuring a partnership. To ensure good alignment of business interests the market position, ownership, technological capabilities and strategy of potential partners needs to be carefully assessed. The market analysis supports this. Often a ranking of potential partners along a set of 44 Azure International – Opportunities for Dutch Clean Energy Companies in China – 2013 carefully defined partnership criteria creates clarity as to the relative strengths and weaknesses of the different potential partners. Initial meetings with potential partners can be useful to assess the scope for and interest in collaboration and to validate the business strategy. It may answer questions such as whether your product and strategy is set up to deliver the best results in a partnership approach in the China market. FIGURE: PROCESS STEPS FOR DEVELOPING CHINA PARTNERSHIPS Source: Azure International Commercial negotiations may be entered into with a number of potential partners. Typically the process can be structured as working through a series of agreements from the high-level MOU to term sheet to commercial contracts and the actual structuring of the partnership. In the course of these negotiations China-based cost modeling of your product or technology may be important to better understand the business case from your counterpart’s point of view. Furthermore, in order to protect IP it will be important understand and to manage the value chain. Starting work on developing sourcing partnerships in parallel or prior to key partnership negotiations can be an effective way to learn about cost, the market and control the value chain and IP. Process steps for evaluating supply chain partnerships are outlined in a separate figure below. Furthermore, care needs to be taken to match progress in commercial negotiations with sharing of IP. Often there will be significant pressure to reveal key IP early on during commercial negotiations. Professional Chinese companies that are used to international business dealings, however, will respect the need to be careful with IP and will allow the process to be structured in a way that IP can be protected effectively. What should be more important to your counterpart than getting access to your IP is what your technology can deliver to them and the performance and timing guarantees you can make. 45 Azure International – Opportunities for Dutch Clean Energy Companies in China – 2013 Finally, there is the stage of technology transfer itself. This may require design optimization to local requirements and integration into your partner’s designs. This stage will require significant engineering project management and relationship management. The relationship and commercial agreement or partnership will be tested in practice during this phase and it needs to be managed on a continuous basis by dedicated staff, almost always from a company base in China. FIGURE: PROCESS STEPS FOR EVALUATING CHINA SUPPLY CHAIN PARTNERSHIPS Supplier Selection Identification: Macro level research Azure supplier database Qualification Costing Contracting Management & Quality Assurance Factory Visits: Cost modeling: Documentation: Logistics: Facility inspection Qualification Q&A Drawing walk-through Estimate the cost of components, as preparation for negotiations Draft bilingual Specs, RFQ, PO, Long term supplier agreement etc. Management of shipping and custom logistics Negotiation: Quality Control: Supplier Qualification: Request for Quotes: Ensure highest performance and quality at the lowest cost Conduct quality inspections before shipping Write-up analysis reports Obtain quotes from short-listed suppliers; weigh against model Prototyping: Discussions with suppliers: Short-listing: Detailed research Direct interviews Screening through a selection matrix 2-5 suppliers will be retained for prototyping (optional) Obtain feedback on design optimization ID potential cost reductions Implementation: Verify documentation Execute contract Supplier Management: On-going management of supplier relationships Implement cost reduction measures Source: Azure International These are just a few of the guidelines Western firms need to understand to be successful in China. Although doing business in the country can be daunting and time-consuming, now that China is the world’s largest energy market and now the biggest funder of renewable energy manufacturing and installations, few energy companies today wish to ignore the potential of doing business there. With some careful thought and the right partners, the potential for cooperation is huge. 46 Azure International – Opportunities for Dutch Clean Energy Companies in China – 2013 11 Government support for Dutch cleantech companies in China 11.1 Introduction The Netherlands government facilitates businesses and knowledge institutes from the Netherlands that want to become active in China. Important government organisations active in this area are NL Agency (that facilitates export on behalf of the ministry of Foreign Affairs and sustainable energy innovation on behalf of the ministry of Economic Affairs), and the posts of the diplomatic network of the Netherlands in China (that are part of the ministry of Foreign Affairs). In this chapter the main activities and instruments of relevance to clean tech organisations from the Netherlands are outlined: 11.2 NL Agency NL Agency is a division of the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs that carries out policy and subsidy programmes focussing on sustainability, innovation, international business and cooperation. NL Agency is the number one contact point for businesses, knowledge institutions and government bodies who are seeking information and advice about financing, networking and regulatory matters. For more information see www.agentschapnl.nl NL Agency supports various programmes in the field of sustainable economic growth in developing countries and emerging markets. These programmes focus on innovative pilot projects, jointinvestments and transfer of technology, knowledge and skills in social and economic sectors. This is achieved through business cooperation and through cooperation between business and training- and knowledge institutes. 11.3 MoU energy cooperation China – Netherlands In 2009, China and the Netherlands signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on energy cooperation. Signatories are the Chinese National Energy Administration (NEA) and the ministry of Economic Affairs of the Netherlands. NL Agency is the implementing body of the MoU on the Dutch side, on behalf of the ministry of Economic Affairs. The representations of the Netherlands in China, such as the embassy in Beijing, are important partners in the implementation of the MoU. The MoU allows for cooperation on a broad range of energy topics. However since 2009 activities have mostly focussed on renewable energy, i.e. solar PV, (offshore) wind energy, smart grids and bioenergy. In 2013 also a project on greening the Chinese coal sector has taken place. One of the aims of the MoU for the Dutch government is to facilitate market entrance in China for Dutch energy related businesses and knowledge institutes. This is achieved through Sino-Dutch activities such as study visits, seminars and matchmaking events, joined by government, industry and institutes from both China and the Netherlands. 47 Azure International – Opportunities for Dutch Clean Energy Companies in China – 2013 Examples of recent activities in clean tech cooperation with China are: (Offshore) wind energy: wind energy is one of the priorities under the MoU. From 2011 onwards, several Sino-Dutch activities have been organised, such as study visits by Chinese energy officials and industry to the Netherlands and vice versa, seminars and matchmaking events. Recent events are a seminar prior to the major offshore wind conference in China (China Offshore wind Conference and Exhibition, June 2013 in Shanghai) and an event prior to the major wind energy conference in China (China Wind Power, October 2013 in Beijing). A report of the seminar in Shanghai is published at: http://www.agentschapnl.nl/actueel/nieuws/seminar-china-wind For wind energy in China the Netherlands government closely cooperates with Holland Home of Wind Energy (HHWE), and export association for Dutch wind businesses a.o. aiming for China (www.hhwe.eu) Bioenergy: bioenergy is a recent topic under the MoU. A report on opportunities for Dutch bioenergy in China has been published, followed by a workshop in Beijing in May 2013. Following these activities, some Dutch bioenergy companies are now exploring the possibilities for further cooperation and activities towards China. The report, workshop proceedings and follow-up activities are publised at: http://www.agentschapnl.nl/actueel/evenementen/kansen-bioenergie-chinabijeenkomst-7-november A cooperation between China and the Netherlands related to the MoU and of relevance to clean tech companies from the Netherlands is the Shenzhen low carbon zone project. The Dutch ministry of Economic Affairs together with the cities of Amsterdam, Eindhoven and Almere, and a number of Dutch low carbon, clean tech and urban development companies and institutes cooperate with the Chinese city of Shenzhen on the development of a low carbon zone in this rapidly developing city. For more information on the MoU, Ms. Agnes Agterberg ([email protected], NL Agency) can be contacted. 11.4 Support for doing business in China NL Agency in general facilitates Dutch businesses in going abroad, including to China. It offers information, services and government support that may be of interest to clean tech companies as well. The major forms of support are: Information and advice: NL Agency answers general and specific questions about doing business in China, can provide dedicated market information and can perform a business partner scan (in close cooperation with representations of the Netherlands in China). For more information see www.agentschapnl.nl.china Missions: NL Agency together with representations of the Netherlands in China organises economic missions for Dutch companies to China on several occasions. Clean tech often is one of the sectors missions are focussing on. 48 Azure International – Opportunities for Dutch Clean Energy Companies in China – 2013 Subsidy for demonstration projects, feasibility studies and knowledge acquisition: these are subsidies for Dutch companies in several countries, including China. The support aims at various stages of doing business abroad. For more information see www.agentschapnl.nl/dhk Partners for International Business: a programme that enables consortia of Dutch businesses and institutes to address a foreign market collectively in partnership with the Dutch government. See www.agentschapnl.nl/pib 11.5 Representation of the Netherlands in China The Netherlands has an extensive representational network in China. In addition to diplomatic tasks and consular services, these government posts have economic tasks and actively support Dutch businesses and other organisations finding their way in China. Furthermore the network of Innovation Attachés is also represented in China. Clean tech companies from the Netherlands may well benefit from the support and services the economic departments and Innovation Network can offer. A useful start to explore the possibilities is the website www.zakendoeninchina.org This website provides an overview of representational offices and services and several sector reports for China. The Netherlands representational network in China includes the embassy in Beijing, four consulates (in Hong Kong, Guangzhou, Shanghai and Chongqing) and six Netherlands Business Support Offices, NBSO’s (in Chengdu, Dalian, Jinan, Nanjing, Qingdao, Wuhan). The Innovation Attaché Network is represented at the embassy in Beijing and at the consulates in Shanghai and Guangzhou. 49 Azure International – Opportunities for Dutch Clean Energy Companies in China – 2013 Cleantech Holland Cleantech Holland is the Dutch export platform for products, concepts and innovations based on sustainable technology. It was founded in 2008 by the FME Association (the Netherlands’ largest federation of companies in the technology sectors), the Ministry of Economic Affairs and the Ministry of Infrastructure and Environment. Cleantech Holland addresses the global challenges further to climate change, the growing demand for energy, and the resulting increase in energy prices by promoting the products and services of Dutch organizations involved in clean technology (‘cleantech’) on the international markets. Major opportunities await organizations, whether commercial companies or research institutes, which specialize in energy efficiency and sustainable energy solutions. More information at www.cleantechholland.nl Azure International Azure International is a leading investment and advisory company focused on China's cleantech energy sector. Founded in 2003, we have a team of 20+ local and international professionals based in China with backgrounds in engineering, marketing, manufacturing, consulting, policy, government relations and finance. In addition to deep advisory capabilities in renewable energy, energy efficiency, carbon management, and energy finance, we have proven capability to invest in and accelerate the development of clean energy companies. Our portfolio and partner companies have achieved both significant commercial success and returns to investors. Azure provides the necessary expertise and execution capabilities in China to lead relationship development with government and strategic partners, project execution, sourcing, sales and technology development – all with deep understanding of Chinese and international requirements. For more information see www.azure-international.com. 50 Azure International – Opportunities for Dutch Clean Energy Companies in China – 2013 References 1 http://wwf.panda.org/wwf_news/?203662 “Offshore Wind Support Vessels - Damen Shipyards Group,” Damen, www.damen.com, accessed Nov. 18, 2013. 3 “Offshore Wind Projects | Van Oord.com,” Van Oord, www.vanoord.com, accessed Nov. 18, 2013. 4 “Dowes: Dutch Offshore Wind Energy Services,” ATO: Association of Technology Transfer, www.dowes.nl, accessed Nov. 18, 2013. 5 “TKI Wind op Zee: short introduction for international visitors,” TKI Wind, www.tki-windopzee.nl, accessed Nov. 18, 2013. 6 “Dutch Experts in Smart Grids, IT and Cyber Security Visit United States,” Smart Energy Universe, http://www.smartenergyuniverse.com/, accessed Nov. 18, 2013. 7 Smart Dutch, www.smartdutch.nl, accessed Nov. 18, 2013. 8 “Solar Forecasting & Smart Grids (SF & SG) make solar power supply predictable,” Agency NL, http://www.agentschapnl.nl/, accessed Nov. 18, 2013. 9 Hancock, Randy et al., “China Greentech Report 2011,” China Greentech Initiative, Mar. 2011. 10 Wai-Shin Chan, et al., “No water, no power: Is there enough water to fuel China’s power expansion?” HSBC, September 2012. 11 “Thirsty Coal 2: Shenhau’s Water Grab,” Greenpeace, www.greenpeace.org, 2013. 12 “Apac leads in solar demand as China dominates end-market,” Clean Biz Asia, cleanbiz.asia, January 25, 2013. 13 “The sun shines again on China's solar industry,” China Economic Review, www.chinaeconomicreview.com, August 12, 2013. 14 “Decision on Accelerating the Cultivation and Development of Strategic Emerging Industry (SEI),” China State Council, October 10, 2010. 15 “Circular Economy Promotion Law of the People's Republic of China (Chinese and English Text),” China National People’s Congress, republished online by the U.S. Congressional-Executive Commission on China, www.cecc.gov, August 29, 2009. 16 Li Xianzhi, “China announces targets on carbon emission cuts,” Xinhua, news.xinhuanet.com, Nov. 26, 2011. 17 Henry Wu, “China’s 12th Five-Year Plan: A Healthy Push,” Nomura Research, Nov. 29, 2010. 18 Anders Hove and Sebastian Meyer, “China Wind Market Quarterly, 4Q 2012,” Greentech Media Research and Azure International, www.greentechmedia.com, February 2013. 19 “NEA issues 2012 national energy usage data,” National Energy Administration, Jan. 14, 2013. 20 “China plans 100 GW wind power capacity in 2015- report,” Reuters, www.reuters.com, December 15, 2011. 21 “ 分 布 式 能 源 ‘ 破 茧 而 出 ’” [Distributed energy ‘emerges from the cocoon’], National Energy Administration, Mar. 3, 2013. 22 “National Energy Agency Work Meeting Opens, Liu Tienan Delivers Report,” National Energy Agency, Jan. 8, 2013. 23 “PV plant target expanded by 14 GW,” Business Soho, business.soho.com, Jan. 30, 2013. 24 “Individual units’ own power production can be injected into the grid; State Grid will promote distributed electricity interconnection,” China Daily, www.chinadaily.com.cn, Feb. 27, 2013 25 China raises PV target by 67%, Solar Tribune, solartribune.com, Feb. 4, 2013 26 Wei Wang, “Statistics on China Renewables and Non-fossil Energy Utilization,” China National Renewable Energy Centre, February 2013. 27 Hancock, Randy et al., “China Greentech Report 2011,” China Greentech Initiative, Mar. 2011. 28 R. P. Siegel, “China Now World Leader in Smart Grid Investment,” Triple Pundit, Feb. 8, 2010. 2 51 Azure International – Opportunities for Dutch Clean Energy Companies in China – 2013 29 “碳交易试点预热碳税开征 [Carbon trading pilots warming up issuance of carbon tax],” China Business Net, www.cb.com.cn, Feb. 4, 2012. 30 Jonathan Kaimen, “China unveils details of pilot carbon-trading program,” The Guardian, May 22, 2013 31 “ 可 再 生 能 源 配 额 管 理 办 法 [Renewable Energy Allocation Management Law],” National Energy Administration, February 2012. 32 “可再生能源配额管理办法或再延迟 [Renewable Energy Allocation Management Law Again Delayed],” Economic Observer Net, www.eeo.com.cn, April 19, 2013. 33 “关于印发《重点区域大气污染防治“十二五”规划》的通知 [Relating to Major Regions Air Pollution Control 12th Five-Year Plan Notice],” China Ministry of Environmental Protection, October 29, 2012. 34 “China clean air plan to slow coal consumption,” Greenpeace, www.greenpeace.org, September 2013. 35 “China caps 2015 coal production and use,” China Economic Review, www.chinaeconomicreview.com, March 23, 2013. 36 “China sets cap on coal portion,” Reuters, www.reuters.com, September 12, 2013. 37 Jianjun Tu, “Industrial Organization of the Chinese Coal Industry, Stanford University, Program on Energy and Sustainable Development, July 2011. 38 “The Decision on Major Issues Concerning Comprehensively Deepening Reforms,” State Council, Nov. 15, 2013. 39 Iliana Bertini, “China set to open doors to foreign green investors,” Blue & Green Tomorrow, http://blueandgreentomorrow.com/ , Nov. 19, 2013. 40 Anders Hove and Sebastian Meyer, “China Wind Market Quarterly, 4Q 2012,” Greentech Media Research and Azure International, www.greentechmedia.com, February 2013. 41 “国家能源局发布 2012 年全社会用电量 [NEA issues 2012 national energy usage data],” NEA, www.nea.gov.cn, Jan. 14, 2013. 42 “国际合作推动中国可再生能源规模化发展 [International cooperation promoted the large scale development of Chinese renewable energy],” National Energy Administration (NEA), www.nea.gov.cn, November 17, 2011. 43 “山东省物价局关于发挥价格杠杆作用促进经济发展方式加快转变的意见 [Shandong Price Bureau issues price levers to promote economic development and speed transformation],” Shandong Price Bureau, www.cnwpem.com , Aug. 6, 2011. 44 “Stats: 2012 wind production rose, but curtailed wind energy doubled, worst in NE China,” Azure International, azure-international.tumblr.com, Mar. 5, 2013. 45 “电监会印发风电场弃风电量计算办法 [SERC issues wind curtailment measurement methodology],” State Electricity Regulatory Commission, www.serc.gov.cn, Jan. 18, 2013 46 “Golmud anticipates 1 GW wind power project,” Wind Power Intelligence, www.windpowerintelligence.com, June 22, 2012. 47 Anders Hove and Sebastian Meyer, “China Wind Market Quarterly, 4Q 2012,” Greentech Media Research and Azure International, www.greentechmedia.com, February 2013. 48 Feifei Shen, “Sinovel, Goldwind Forecast ‘Arduous’ 2013 as Turbine Sales Drop,” Bloomberg, www.bloomberg.com, Nov. 19, 2012. 49 “分布式能源 ‘破茧而出’ [Distributed energy ‘emerges from the cocoon’],” China Business Daily, Mar. 25, 2013; “中国西部光伏电站大起底 [Western China PV Stations Top-to-Bottom],” PV-Tech Pro, February 2013. 50 “2013 年全国能源工作会议召开 刘铁男作报告 [2013 National Energy Agency Work Meeting Opens, Liu Tienan Delivers Report],” Money163, money.163.com, Jan. 8, 2013. 51 “光伏发电目标再扩 14 GW [PV plant target expanded by 14 GW],” Sohu, business.sohu.com, Jan. 30, 2013. 52 “单位个人自发电可卖给电网 国家电网重举促进分布式电源并网 [Individual units’ own power production can be injected into the grid; State Grid will promote distributed electricity interconnection],” China Daily, www.chinadaily.com.cn, Feb. 27, 2013. 53 “China raises PV target by 67%,” Solar Tribune, www.solartribune.com, Feb. 4, 2013. 54 “Factbox: How China promotes its green sector,” Reuters, www.reuters.com, Jan. 17, 2011. 52 Azure International – Opportunities for Dutch Clean Energy Companies in China – 2013 55 “Prospects for China's solar PV industry gloomy,” China.org, china.org.cn, Feb. 12, 2012. “国家发展改革委《关于发挥价格杠杆作用促进光伏产业健康发展的通知》[Notice on Use of Price Leverage to Promote the Healthy Development of PV Industry], 26 August 2013 57 Data for this paragraph are from Azure International’s proprietary solar database. 58 “12th Five-Year Plan for the Solar Photovoltaic Industry,” translation by Wiley Rein LLP, www.americansolarmanufacturing.org, accessed April 12, 2013. 56 59 “社会责任报告 2012,” China State Grid, www.sgcc.com.cn, Feb. 2013. CSG has not revealed its investment allocation plans at the same level of detail as SCGG. While CSG generally follow SGCC’s lead, CSG utilizes a decentralized procurement process, emphasizes low-voltage grid development and is more open to foreign suppliers. 61 Randy Hancock et al, “China Greentech Report 2011,” China Greentech Initiative, www.chinagreentech.com, March 2011. 62 Kevin Popper and Anders Hove, “China Grid Scale Energy Storage: 2012-2017,” Azure International and Greentech Media Research, www.greentechmedia.com, June 2012. 63 State Grid’s UHV development plans have been stymied by technology challenges related to its 1000 kV AC technology and pushback from the central government, which is trying to limit State Grid’s monopoly and control spending. The central government has only approved four 1000 kV AC line segments since 2008, forcing State Grid to delay its UHV installation targets. State Grid now plans to complete three horizontal and three vertical UHV line networks by 2017-two years later than the original goal. 60 64 “社会责任报告 2012,” China State Grid, www.sgcc.com.cn, Feb. 2013. “国网十二五将投 1.6 万亿建设智能电网,” Shanghai Securities News, www.cnstock.com, Sept. 29, 2011. 66 “国家电网智能化规划总报告,” China State Grid, www.sgcc.com.cn , Feb. 2012. 67 “CGTI Electric Power Infrastructure Opportunity Assessment: China’s Strong and Smart Grid Investment Plan Update,” China Greentech Initiative, Dec. 27, 2011. 68 “23 位电力专家为何上书反对建 ‘特高压’?,” China Smart Grid, www.chinasmartgrid.com.cn, March 3, 2013. 65 69 70 Min Li, “Yuanta Greater China Energy Industry Update,” The Yuanta Group, Nov. 2, 2011. Min Li, “Yuanta Greater China Energy Industry Update,” The Yuanta Group, Nov. 2, 2011. 71 “社会责任报告 2012,” China State Grid, www.sgcc.com.cn, Feb. 2013. Min Li, “Yuanta Greater China Energy Industry Update,” The Yuanta Group, Nov. 2, 2011. 73 Robert Earley et al., “Electric Vehicles in the Context of Sustainable Development in China,” Innovation Center for Energy and Transportation, www.icet.org.cn, May 2, 2011. 72 74 “Power Grid Network Solution Overview,” Huawei Technologies, www.huawei.com, 2011. “State Grid Takes Control of XJ Electric,” Caixin Online, www.english.caixin.com, June 23, 2010. 76 Liu Jie, “Siemens Sets Sights on China’s Rapid City Growth,” China Daily, www.chinadaily.com.cn, Dec. 12, 2012. 77 “GE to Build China Smart Grid Demo Center,” UPI, www.upi.com, Jan. 12, 2010. 78 “CGTI Electric Power Infrastructure Opportunity Assessment: China’s Strong and Smart Grid Investment Plan Update,” China Greentech Initiative, Dec. 27 2011. 79 Jeff St. John, “Echelon-Holley JV Lands Smart Meter Pilots in China,” Greentech Media, www.greentechmedia.com, Oct. 8, 2012. 80 Ibid. 81 Azure International interview, Apr. 6, 2012. 82 Wang, Wei, Statistics on China Renewables and Non-fossil Energy Utilization, China National Renewable Energy Centre, February. 2013 83 Ibid. 84 State Council, "生物产业发展规划," [Bio-Energy Industry Development Plan], December 29, 2012 75 53 Azure International – Opportunities for Dutch Clean Energy Companies in China – 2013 85 National Energy Administration, "生物质能发展“十二五”规划," [The 12th Five-Year Plan on Bio-Energy Development], July 24, 2012. 86 Han Jiangzhou, "完善垃圾发电体系促进生物质能利用," [Improve Waste-to-Energy System and Promote Utilization of Biomass], The 6th Solid Waste Strategy Forum, January 11, 2013. 87 Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Finance, "2011 年农村户用沼气建设项目补助资金通知"[Notice on subsidies on 2011 rural biogas system construction], 2011. 88 "Biomass gasification technology developments in China," Azure International, February, 2011 89 National Energy Administration, "生物质能发展“十二五”规划," [The 12th Five-Year Plan on Bio-Energy Development], July 24, 2012. 90 National Energy Administration, "生物质能发展“十二五”规划," [The 12th Five-Year Plan on Bio-Energy Development], July 24, 2012. 91 Zhang, Caixia, et. al, Spatial suitability and its bio-ethanol potential of sweet sorghum in China, Acta Ecologica Sinica, 30 (17) 4765-4770, 2010. 92 Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine, Standardization Administration of China, "生物柴油调合燃料(B5), GB/T 25199-2010," [Biodiesel fuel blend (B5), GB/T 25199-2010], February 1, 2011; Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine, Standardization Administration of China, "车用乙醇汽油(E10)GB 18351-2010," [Ethanol gasoline for motor vehicles, GB 18351-2010], January 10, 2011 93 Ministry of Finance, State Administration of Taxation,"关于资源综合利用及其他产品增值税政策的通知", December 9, 2008; Ministry of Finance, State Administration of Taxation, "关于对利用废弃的动植物油生 产纯生物柴油免征消费税的通知" [Notice on VAT redemption of bio-diesel from waste animal and vegetable oil], December 17, 2010; "关于明确废弃动植物油生产纯生物柴油免征消费税适用范围的通知 " [Notice on clarification of the scope of VAT redemption of bio-diesel from waste animal and vegetable oil], June 15, 2011. 94 Ministry of Finance, "关于调整生物燃料乙醇财政补助政策" [Adjustment on subsidies of bio-ethanol production], April 28, 2012; State Administration of Taxation, "关于部分玉米深加工产品增值税税率问题 的公告" [Notice on VAT rates of products from corn processing], March 27, 2012. 95 Ministry of Agriculture, "农业生物质能产业发展规划(2007-2015 年)," [Industry Development Plan on Agricultural Biomass 2007-2015], July 5, 2007 96 The 863 program or State High-Tech Development Plan is a central government-funded research program intended to stimulate development of advanced technologies in a wide range of fields. The program was named after its founding date but continues today. 97 "我省生物柴油年产可达 6 万吨" [Bio-diesel annual production to reach 60,000 tons in Hainan] Dec. 23, 2011, www.ngdsb.hinews.cn; ““川大造”生物柴油明年海南推广,” [Bio-diesel technology from Sichuan University will be applied in Hainan] Chengdu Evening News, Dec. 11, 2009, www.cdwb.com.cn 98 Ma Longlong, "生物质能产业发展与科技创新调研报告," [Research Report on Bio-Energy Industry Development and Technology Innovation], Guangzhou Energy Research Institute, China Academy of Science, March 2012. 98 National Development and Reform Commission, "产业结构调整指导目录(2011 年本)," [The Industry Restructure Plan, 2011], March 27, 2011. 99 “ 生 物 柴油 生 产 技术 推 陈 出新 ,” [New bio-diesel technologies emerge] ChemNet, Feb. 21, 2010, www.news.chemnet.com; “清华大学研发实验服务基地——工程微藻异养发酵生产生物柴油技术助力企 业发展,” [Tsinghua R&D center: microalgae to bio-diesel technologies] China Science Resources, June 2, 2010, www.sdtjpt.gov.cn 100 National Development and Reform Commission, "可再生能源中长期发展规划 2007-2020," [Medium and Long Term Development Plan for Renewable Energy 2007-2020], August 31, 2007. 101 National Energy Administration, "生物质能发展“十二五”规划," [The 12th Five-Year Plan on Bio-Energy Development], July 24, 2012. 54 Azure International – Opportunities for Dutch Clean Energy Companies in China – 2013 102 National People's Congress, "可再生能源法," [Renewable Energy Law], January 1, 2006; "可再生能源法( 修正案)," [Renewable Energy Law (Amendment)], April 1, 2010. 103 National Development and Reform Commission, "关于完善农林生物质发电价格政策的通知," [Notice on Improving Agricultural and Forestry Biomass Power Generation Pricing Policy], July 18, 2010. 104 "世界装机容量最大生物质发电厂在广东运营" [The world's largest biomass power plants starts operation in Guangdong], Phoenix, www.ifeng.com, Nov. 18, 2011. 105 "凯迪电力生物质发电将成主业" [Biomass Power to become Kaidi's main business], Hexun, September 30, 2011, http://stock.hexun.com; "凯迪电力利润下滑,评级展望被调负面" [Kaidi's profit drops], XNYFD, January 31, 2013, www.xnyfd.com 106 State Council, "“十二五”全国城镇生活垃圾无害化处理设施建设规划" [Plan on national municipal solid waste treatment during 2011-2015], April 19, 2012. 107 The 77% figure is from State Council, "“十二五”全国城镇生活垃圾无害化处理设施建设规划" [Plan on national municipal solid waste treatment during 2011-2015] April 19, 2012; the 85% figure is from the National Bureau of Statistics, “各地区城市生活垃圾清运和处理情况 (2010 年),” www.stats.gov.cn, accessed April 16, 2013 108 “中国城市垃圾围城 “分类收集”举步维艰,” [Chinese cities surrounded by waste, difficulties exist in sorting] China News, Oct. 1, 2012, www.chinanews.com 109 State Council, "“十二五”全国城镇生活垃圾无害化处理设施建设规划" [Plan on national municipal solid waste treatment during 2011-2015], April 19, 2012. 110 “广州市民集会抗议建垃圾焚烧厂,” [Guangzhou citizens protest against MSW incineration plant] 163, May 23, 2012, www.money.163.com 111 National Energy Administration, "生物质能发展“十二五”规划," [The 12th Five-Year Plan on Bio-Energy Development], July 24, 2012. 112 Jingming Li and Mei Xue, “Biological Energy in China: current status and prospect,” 2010. 113 Europe-China Clean Energy Center, "Study of potential and constraints on the biomass sector in China," 2011. 114 “China’s Strategic Emerging Industries: Policy, Implementation, Challenges, & Recommendations,” U.S. China Business Council, March 2013. 115 David Brown and Jeremy Ngai, “PwC M&A 2012 Review and 2013 Outlook,” PwC, www.pwc.com, Jan. 1, 2013. 116 Li Zhenyu, “Breaking down China's overseas investment,” china.org, www.china.org.cn, Dec. 11, 2012. 117 Cai Xiao, “China's M&A deals tipped to rebound in 2013,” China Daily, Jan. 31, 2013. 118 David Brown and Jeremy Ngai, “PwC M&A 2012 Review and 2013 Outlook,” PwC, www.pwc.com, Jan. 1, 2013. 119 “China Outbound Investment Will Impact on the Australian Regulatory Landscape,” King, Wood & Mallesons, www.mallesons.com, April 2010. 120 Yue Chen et al., “China Going Global – A Boomerang Strategy,” PowerPoint presentation, Columbia University, May 8, 2012. 121 Du Juan, “Outbound M&A activity on the rise, survey says,” China Daily, Jan. 18, 2013. 122 The five cleantech VCs surveyed here are Tsing Capital, Qiming Venture Partners, GSR Ventures, IDG Capital Partners Northern Light Venture Capital. 55
© Copyright 2026 Paperzz