Socio-economic Aspects of the Hydrogen Economy
Development
F. Di Mario, A. Iacobazzi, R. Infusino, A. Mattucci,
ENEA, Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Project,
C.R. Casaccia, Via Anguillarese 301, 00060 Rome, Italy
Seventh International Conference on Technologies and Combustion for a Clean Environment -
July 2003, Lisbon (Portugal)
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Summary

The framework of the study

The EU energy issues

The hydrogen as energy carrier

Possible hydrogen scenarios

Results

Final considerations
Seventh International Conference on Technologies and Combustion for a Clean Environment -
July 2003, Lisbon (Portugal)
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The context
The study has been carried out as a Fast-Track for European
Science and Technology Observatory (ESTO) network,
coordinated from the Institute for Prospective Technological
Studies.
ESTO main objectives are related to trans-national prospective
analysis and advice on science and technology changes
relevant to EU society, economy and policy.
ESTO is presently composed of a core of twenty European
institutions
Seventh International Conference on Technologies and Combustion for a Clean Environment -
July 2003, Lisbon (Portugal)
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The framework conditions
The Green Paper from the European Commission states that the
most important issues related to energy are for EU:
 Global climate change
 Security of energy supply
 Kyoto protocol target achievement (8% of CO2 reduction in 20082012 for EU15 respect to 1990) is uncertain; in any case this
target is not enough to stop planet warming, but only to delay it


In fact, after 2010 the energy demand will continue to increase;
2030 forecasts give CO2 emissions increasing more than 20%
respect to Kyoto target
Seventh International Conference on Technologies and Combustion for a Clean Environment -
July 2003, Lisbon (Portugal)
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Global climate change

The consequence is that additional effort is required to reduce the
CO2 emissions. The most effective recipes are:

efficiency improvement, with reduction of fossil fuel
consumption (short term);

use of low-carbon or carbon-free energy sources (natural gas,
renewables, nuclear);

separation and sequestration of the CO2 produced from fossil
fuels.
But even these reduction will be unable to stabilise atmospheric
CO2 concentration, if fossil fuels will be the main sources (50-70%
in 2050, according with IIASA-WEC scenarios)
Seventh International Conference on Technologies and Combustion for a Clean Environment -
July 2003, Lisbon (Portugal)
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Security of energy supply
Big issues of energy supply for EU are:

The energy supply is mainly provided
from non-EU countries

Poor control on the supply side

The only ways to reduce the demand
require measures on residential and
transport sectors, but they are hard to
be implemented
Therefore innovative solutions are to be
investigated, such as the Hydrogen
Seventh International Conference on Technologies and Combustion for a Clean Environment -
July 2003, Lisbon (Portugal)
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Reference conditions in 2030 for EU30
The Green Paper states that:
“there are the following challenges:
 energy import dependence is around 70 % in 2030,
 renewable energy does not reach its target of 12 % share of
primary energy,
 Kyoto objectives are not met,
 the absence of nuclear energy would make it even more
difficult to tackle climate change in the long term.”
Seventh International Conference on Technologies and Combustion for a Clean Environment -
July 2003, Lisbon (Portugal)
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Future scenarios for CO2
Gt /y of C
CO2 emissions (referred to1990)
1,4
1,14
1,2
relative emissions
1
1
1,07
1,15
0,99
1,00
1 0,99
0,92
0,8
0,87
0,71
0,6
0,64
0,4
0,35
0,31
0,2
0
1980
years
2000
2020
OECD90 forecasts from IPCC
Trend of worldwide annual Carbon
emissions under IPCC B1 scenario
2040
2060
EU forecasts
2080
2100
2120
years
EU forecasts with environmental measures
Comparison between CO2 annual
emission forecasts for EU30
Seventh International Conference on Technologies and Combustion for a Clean Environment -
July 2003, Lisbon (Portugal)
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Why Hydrogen?
Hydrogen can be a viable solution as:



Is CO2 and pollutant emissions-free at the final use
(transport, electricity production, etc.), while emissions can
be heavily reduced during the production processes
Can be obtained from a variety of different primary sources
(fossil, renewable, nuclear)
Can have higher efficiency, especially if converted in fuel
cells, therefore reducing overall CO2 emissions, even if
separation and sequestration are not carried out (whenever
H2 is produced from fossil fuels)
Seventh International Conference on Technologies and Combustion for a Clean Environment -
July 2003, Lisbon (Portugal)
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A vision for the future Hydrogen society
H2
Seventh International Conference on Technologies and Combustion for a Clean Environment -
July 2003, Lisbon (Portugal)
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Hydrogen scenarios for environment preservation
Two hydrogen penetration scenarios have been considered,
both of them based on the lower curve of the previous figure
(about 2050 Mt of CO2 less than the baseline in 2030):
 scenario A, (high hydrogen penetration), characterised by an
early introduction of the hydrogen, that covers a significant
share of the total EU30 energy;
 scenario B, (low hydrogen penetration), with a H2 penetration
in longer times; H2 covers only a share of few % of the total
EU30 energy in 2030.
Seventh International Conference on Technologies and Combustion for a Clean Environment -
July 2003, Lisbon (Portugal)
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Scenario A features






Hydrogen is produced from fossil sources in centralised plants whose size is
of about 100 Mt/year (I.e. 286 Mtep/year), with partial or total separation and
sequestration of CO2;
hydrogen is produced also from renewables, whose market covers 22% of total
energy in 2030 (mainly from biomasses); beyond 2020, also thermo-chemical
processes are available;
infrastructures are available on the EU territory both for stationary use and
traction in 2030;
industrial enterprises and services are also available for the required hydrogen
technologies (from the production to the final use of the hydrogen);
a significant share of hydrogen vehicles is deployed for road transport (starting
with buses and city goods delivery vehicles and then including private cars);
technologies are mainly based on fuel cells (66 millions of vehicles in EU30);
fuel cell systems of different size for distributed generation/cogeneration (from
a few kW to a few tens of MW) have been also deployed.
Seventh International Conference on Technologies and Combustion for a Clean Environment -
July 2003, Lisbon (Portugal)
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Scenario B features
Hydrogen is produced from fossil sources (28 Mt/year corresponding to
80 Mtep/year), in a few centralised plants, with CO2 separation and
sequestration, and in smaller plants near to final users, with CO2
separation for industrial uses;
 hydrogen production from renewable sources is limited (about
3Mt/year);
 infrastructures and services have been developed only in some regions
and normally located near the production plants;
 hydrogen vehicles are mainly used in public transport and captive
fleets, where the availability of infrastructures can be better overcome,
with a total of 14 millions of vehicles in EU30;
 the hydrogen penetration is easier for the stationary market sectors
where the availability of diffused infrastructures is not required.

Seventh International Conference on Technologies and Combustion for a Clean Environment -
July 2003, Lisbon (Portugal)
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Hydrogen benefits in terms of CO2
Hydrogen effect on CO2 reduction
800
700
192
Mt of CO2 avoided
600
Transport
500
400
300
Energy
production
549
200
41
100
137
0
Scenario A
Scenario B
Seventh International Conference on Technologies and Combustion for a Clean Environment -
July 2003, Lisbon (Portugal)
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Hydrogen benefits in terms of pollutant emissions
Scenario B emission reduction
10,0%
Energy
production
8,0%
E mission eduction
12,0%
12,0%
10,0%
Energy
production
8,0%
6,0%
6,0%
Road
transport
Road
transport
4,0%
4,0%
2,0%
2,0%
0,0%
Scenario A
B enzene
VOC
PM10
CO
SO2
Type of pollutant
NOx
Benzene
VOC
PM10
CO
SO2
0,0%
NOx
Emission eduction
Scenario A emission reduction
Type of pollutant
Scenario B
Seventh International Conference on Technologies and Combustion for a Clean Environment -
July 2003, Lisbon (Portugal)
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Hydrogen cost evaluation (billions of €)
Process
Scenario A
Scenario B
Production from fossil fuels (with capture and
150
35
sequestration of CO2 for centralised plants)
Production from renewables
100
17
Total production
250
52
Network
100
12
17 (80 with on- 7 (28 with on-site
Refuelling stations
site production)
production)
Total
367
71
Seventh International Conference on Technologies and Combustion for a Clean Environment -
July 2003, Lisbon (Portugal)
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Final Considerations




The most relevant effects of future hydrogen introduction are:
Consistent benefits are resulting, especially in terms of CO2 emission
reduction; therefore economic savings are possible, avoiding additional
measures to cut emissions
Considerable reduction of pollutant emissions is also attained and this can
have very positive impacts in urban areas
Considering constant the oil price in the medium-long term (safe
assumption), hydrogen costs are high, but affordable, keeping in mind that
other measures are needed if environmental targets have to be met; of course
the H2 economic impact would be significantly lower if oil price increases.
The high effort to promote the hydrogen introduction in the energy market
can create technological opportunities and increase the European
competitiveness in the economic field
Seventh International Conference on Technologies and Combustion for a Clean Environment -
July 2003, Lisbon (Portugal)
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References
A full copy of the report
Socio-economic Aspects of the Hydrogen Economy
Development
Author(s): F. Di Mario, A. Iacobazzi, R. Infusino, A.
Mattucci, A. Soria (ed.)
EUR No: EUR 20668 EN
Year: 2003
ISBN: 92-894-5569-1
can be downloaded from the site:
http://www.jrc.es/home/publications/publication.cfm?pub=1090
Seventh International Conference on Technologies and Combustion for a Clean Environment -
July 2003, Lisbon (Portugal)
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