Energy, Natural Resources and Environmental Economics (ENE-research group)
Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries (EAF) – A Bioeconomic
Management and Potential Gains
8/15/2012
Leif Kristoffer Sandal - Department of Finance and Management Science
Energy, Natural Resources and Environmental Economics (ENE-research group)
Towards Ecosystem Based Management of the Main Commercial Fisheries in the Barents Sea
Content
International commitments and potential problems concerning objectives
BMAME project and multi-species management
Potential build-up of forward/future markets
8/15/2012
Leif Kristoffer Sandal - Department of Finance and Management Science
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Energy, Natural Resources and Environmental Economics (ENE-research group)
Some international commitments
Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries
The international institutional framework within which the EAF has developed is comprised principally of three United Nations (UN)
bodies: UNCLOS (UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, 1982), UNCED (UN Conference on Environment and Development, 1992), and
the Committee on fisheries of FAO (United Nations Organisation for Food and Agriculture, 1965). The CBD (Convention on Biological
Diversity) and Agenda 21, signed at the time of the Rio summit in 1992, complete the foundation stones
– The “Rio Declaration” (1992) established an objective that stocks should be recovered to levels that can
produce maximum sustainable yields (MSY)
– The ”Johannesburg Declaration” (2002) established some deadlines and Plans of Implementation (JPOI)
• Biodiversity and MPAs – significant reduction of current rate of biodiversity loss
• Elimination of destructive fishing practice and the establishment of representative networks of MPAs by
2012
• Implement the FAO International Plan of Action to prevent, deter and eliminate IUU fishing by 2004
• Eliminate subsidies that contributes to IUU fishing and overcapacity
• Maintain or restore depleted fish stocks to levels that can produce MSY no later than 2015
• Encourage the application of the ecosystem approach by 2010 for the sustainable development of the
oceans, particularly the management of fisheries and conservation of biodiversity
– Rio+20 - Earth Summit 3 (2012): The objective: Secure renewed political commitment for sustainable
development, assessing the progress and the remaining gaps in the implementation of the outcomes of the major
summits on sustainable development and addressing new and emerging challenges.
8/15/2012
Leif Kristoffer Sandal - Department of Finance and Management Science
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Energy, Natural Resources and Environmental Economics (ENE-research group)
Some international commitments
The international institutional framework within which the EAF has developed is comprised principally of three United Nations (UN)
bodies: UNCLOS (UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, 1982), UNCED (UN Conference on Environment and Development, 1992), and
the Committee on fisheries of FAO (United Nations Organisation for Food and Agriculture, 1965). The CBD (Convention on Biological
Diversity) and Agenda 21, signed at the time of the Rio summit in 1992, complete the foundation stones
– The “Rio Declaration” (1992) established an objective that stocks should be recovered to levels that can
produce maximum sustainable yields (MSY)
– The ”Johannesburg Declaration” (2002) established some deadlines and Plans of Implementation (JPOI)
• Biodiversity and MPAs – significant reduction of current rate of biodiversity loss
• Elimination of destructive fishing practice and the establishment of representative networks of MPAs by
2012
• Implement the FAO International Plan of Action to prevent, deter and eliminate IUU fishing by 2004
• Eliminate subsidies that contributes to IUU fishing and overcapacity
• Maintain or restore depleted fish stocks to levels that can produce MSY no later than 2015
• Encourage the application of the ecosystem approach by 2010 for the sustainable development of the
oceans, particularly the management of fisheries and conservation of biodiversity
– Rio+20 - Earth Summit 3 (2012): The objective: Secure renewed political commitment for sustainable
development, assessing the progress and the remaining gaps in the implementation of the outcomes of the major
summits on sustainable development and addressing new and emerging challenges.
8/15/2012
Leif Kristoffer Sandal - Department of Finance and Management Science
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Energy, Natural Resources and Environmental Economics (ENE-research group)
Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY)-targeting is not an EAF policy
MSY and similar concepts (Carrying capacity, etc.) are inherently
Single-species concepts
Deterministic concepts neglecting natural variability and uncertainties
Static (equilibrium) concepts
Optimized and efficient economic value creation is excluded when used together with
ad-hoc harvest control rules (HCRs)
The quasi-static thinking induced by using single-species concepts in the description of a multispecies fishery makes it hard to distinguish natural dynamic ecosystems effects and ecosystems
running unstable with possible regime-shifts due to anthropogenic pressure.
There is an implicit trend to “manage” natural cycles by trying to suppress them.
Most commercially important fisheries are managed through single species
approach
8/15/2012
Leif Kristoffer Sandal - Department of Finance and Management Science
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Energy, Natural Resources and Environmental Economics (ENE-research group)
Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY)-targeting is not an EAF policy
MSY and similar concepts (Carrying capacity, etc.) are inherently
Single-species concepts
Deterministic concepts neglecting natural variability and uncertainties
Static (equilibrium) concepts
Optimized and efficient economic value creation is excluded when used together with
ad-hoc harvest control rules (HCRs)
The quasi-static thinking induced by using single-species concepts in the description of a multispecies fishery makes it hard to distinguish natural dynamic ecosystems effects and ecosystems
running unstable with possible regime-shifts due to anthropogenic pressure.
There is an implicit trend to “manage” natural cycles by trying to suppress them.
Most commercially important fisheries are managed through single species
approach and hence not through an ecosystem approach
Commercial fisheries are in bad shape (global perspective)
8/15/2012
Leif Kristoffer Sandal - Department of Finance and Management Science
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Energy, Natural Resources and Environmental Economics (ENE-research group)
The management regime
Spawning biomass (1000 t)
Bpa
Blim
Catch, set and advised TAC (1000 t)
8/15/2012
Leif Kristoffer Sandal - Department of Finance and Management Science
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Energy, Natural Resources and Environmental Economics (ENE-research group)
•
•
•
•
Environmental sustainability as the over-arching principle
Precautionary approach – high thresholds against risks
Transparency in decision making and TAC-settings
Maintain stability and resistance against random shocks without suppressing natural
cycles (short and long term) in fish stocks and adaptation to climate change.
Presently: Stability rules may hinder adaption to fast changes in a stock level (bounds
on annual changes in a TAC, e.g. less than 10%)
• Ecosystem approach by itself does not produce any harvest rules
Operational rules based on economic and uncertainty/noise adapted considerations.
Transparency:
Public website giving the BEST available forecast on expected stock levels and TACs. It provides
anybody with alternative TACs based on their own view on future stock compositions. Participants
may (dis)invest according to their own informed view and take the loss or gain accordingly. Base
tool to facilitate the development of future/forward markets.
8/15/2012
Leif Kristoffer Sandal - Department of Finance and Management Science
8
Energy, Natural Resources and Environmental Economics (ENE-research group)
•
•
•
•
Environmental sustainability as the over-arching principle
Precautionary approach – high thresholds against risks
Transparency in decision making and TAC-settings
Maintain stability and resistance against random shocks without suppressing natural
cycles (short and long term) in fish stocks and adaptation to climate change.
Presently: Stability rules may hinder adaption to fast changes in a stock level (bounds
on annual changes in a TAC, e.g. less than 10%)
• Ecosystem approach by itself does not produce any harvest rules
Operational rules based on economic and uncertainty/noise adapted considerations.
Transparency:
Public website giving the BEST available forecast on expected stock levels and TACs. It provides
anybody with alternative TACs based on their own view on future stock compositions. Participants
may (dis)invest according to their own informed view and take the loss or gain accordingly. Base
tool to facilitate the development of future/forward markets.
8/15/2012
Leif Kristoffer Sandal - Department of Finance and Management Science
9
Energy, Natural Resources and Environmental Economics (ENE-research group)
• Top-down determination of TACs based on bioeconomic multi-species modeling.
Optimized and aggregated description of the main species biological and economic
interactions. “Getting it right on the macro level”. Each species´ TAC depends on all stock
levels.
• Ensuring quotas (TACs) are biological sustainable and economically sound given existing
knowledge
Insurance perspective: The policies must be tested in “micro oriented” simulators
running what-if scenarios. Checking if micro details combine to produce unanticipated
and unwanted macro effects
• Harvest rules are published and accessible (WEB-sites) and efficient in value creation
Rules are “permanent”. Increasing predictability of marked prices (forward markets) and
damping pulses in markets. Facilitates long term planning and risk management for the
industrial sector
8/15/2012
Leif Kristoffer Sandal - Department of Finance and Management Science
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Energy, Natural Resources and Environmental Economics (ENE-research group)
Expected general results
Some expected advantages brought about by the described bioeconomic system approach:
– TACs are economic optimized wrt uncertainties in future biological production, development and estimates
of system’s’ performance. Typically more conservative than pure biomass production objectives.
– Genuine new features in HCRs stemming from a multi-species approach and economic objectives
– TACs should not be technically adjusted. They are synchronized to the ecosystem and bring us beyond yearby-year management. Additional bounds on annual changes in TACs (ad hoc) are inefficient.
– TACs are predictable for any given combinations of stock levels due to their feedback form.
Stakeholders have better tools for planning – in particular if forward markets are formed.
– Revising and updating TAC-rules should (only) take place
if new critical system information is obtained.
– Normal mode: Less ad-hoc regulation and more
stable business environment. Facilitating a necessary
restructuring and renewal of the industrial sector
8/15/2012
Leif Kristoffer Sandal - Department of Finance and Management Science
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Energy, Natural Resources and Environmental Economics (ENE-research group)
Case: Barents Sea Cod in a capelin-cod-herring integrated approach
Typical parameter result
Stock, catch and dynamic trace
The process gets less uncertain as it gets more informed
(extended advanced ensample Kalman filter)
8/15/2012
Leif Kristoffer Sandal - Department of Finance and Management Science
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Energy, Natural Resources and Environmental Economics (ENE-research group)
8/15/2012
Leif Kristoffer Sandal - Department of Finance and Management Science
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Energy, Natural Resources and Environmental Economics (ENE-research group)
Harvest
Moratorium
Biomass level
8/15/2012
Leif Kristoffer Sandal - Department of Finance and Management Science
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Energy, Natural Resources and Environmental Economics (ENE-research group)
Preliminary results: TAC feedback rule for capelin for all combinations of capelin
and cod in the Barents Sea (No dynamic track of herring)
Optimal prey
harvest feedback policy
800
600
400
200
0
Predator
Prey
8/15/2012
Leif Kristoffer Sandal - Department of Finance and Management Science
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Energy, Natural Resources and Environmental Economics (ENE-research group)
Preliminary test results for cod - capelin - herring in the Barents Sea indicate that the
total value of these fisheries can be increased by as much as 15-30% if managed
according to the new management model (BMAME - Bioeconomic Multispecies
Analysis of Marine Ecosystems)
8/15/2012
Leif Kristoffer Sandal - Department of Finance and Management Science
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