ECOLEC-03765; No of Pages 10 Ecological Economics xxx (2010) xxx–xxx Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Ecological Economics j o u r n a l h o m e p a g e : w w w. e l s e v i e r. c o m / l o c a t e / e c o l e c o n The impact of culture and ecology on cooperation in a common-pool resource experiment Sebastian Prediger a,⁎, Björn Vollan b, Markus Frölich c,d,e a University of Marburg, Department of Business Administration and Economics, Institute for Co-operation in Developing Countries (ICDC), Am Plan 2, D-35032 Marburg, Germany University of Mannheim, Department of Economics, Chair of Econometrics, L7,3-5, D-68131 Mannheim, Germany University of Mannheim, Germany d IZA Bonn, Germany e ZEW Mannheim, Germany b c a r t i c l e i n f o Article history: Received 15 January 2010 Received in revised form 8 July 2010 Accepted 8 August 2010 Available online xxxx JEL classification: C35 C93 D70 Q24 Q57 Keywords: Common-pool resource experiment Southern Africa Payoffs to cooperation Historical/political background a b s t r a c t Context affects decision-making in many ways. In this paper we explore differences in cooperation behaviour between communal farmers in Namibia and South Africa, who share the same ethnic origin but have had different historical and ecological constraints. We report on a series of field experiments based on a commonpool resource model. Our experimental design is framed according to the grazing situation in semi-arid rangelands. Dependent on the behaviour in previous rounds, participants are facing different states of resource availability with varying need to cooperate, coordinate and to be patient. While only 4% of the grazing areas in South Africa remain in good quality, Namibians achieve a level of 42%. We analyse the different experimental states and find that Namibians behave in all states more cooperatively. We argue that the large difference between the two regions is due to a combination of different historical developments and ecological preconditions: Namibian resource users have a longer experience in cooperative resource management and intact traditional norms. Moreover, the real-life payoffs to cooperation are higher in Namibia stemming from ecological factors. © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction In our study area, the communal lands of Berseba (Namibia) and Namaqualand (South Africa), the majority of residents depend on livestock production at subsistence level. The sustainable management of the rangelands is thus essential to poverty reduction and development of local livelihoods. Residents in both study areas share a common origin from the Nama culture and used to share the same traditions. Grazing areas are managed commonly and are characterized by rivalry in consumption and costly exclusion of other users. Because there are no de facto formal institutions regulating grazing in our study areas, norms of cooperation and trust are crucial to manage grazing resources in a sustainable way. Economic experiments on the sustainable management of commonpool resources (CPR) have been carried out since the beginning of the 1990s in the laboratory (Casari and Plott, 2003; Ostrom et al., 1994) and also later in the field (Cardenas et al., 2000; Velez et al., 2009). In field ⁎ Corresponding author. Tel.: +49 163 5673429. E-mail address: [email protected] (S. Prediger). studies performed with real life CPR users, extraction rates were found to deviate substantially from the Nash equilibrium. Yet, with more realistic settings, e.g. the possibility to communicate or to punish, resource users were able to escape the social dilemma of overuse over long periods of time (Ostrom, 2006). At the same time, economists developed theories on social preferences (e.g. Bolton and Ockenfels, 2000; Fehr and Schmidt, 1999) which have in common that individual's utility partly depends on other people's welfare. However, theoretical research in economics almost universally ignores cultural differences (Cason et al., 2002; Henrich, 2000), despite recent studies across diverse societies (Henrich et al., 2005; Herrmann et al., 2008) provide strong evidence that economic behaviour varies greatly among individuals who grew up in different places, thus suggesting that individual economic decision-making is affected by socialisation and cultural background. The experiments presented here are based on a “within culture between countries” design. They are framed as a task to collectively manage grazing around the village and address the problem of land degradation on the communal lands of Berseba (Namibia) and Namaqualand (South Africa). Our experimental design reflects typical ecological features of our study area and is framed according to the 0921-8009/$ – see front matter © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2010.08.017 Please cite this article as: Prediger, S., et al., The impact of culture and ecology on cooperation in a common-pool resource experiment, Ecol. Econ. (2010), doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2010.08.017 2 S. Prediger et al. / Ecological Economics xxx (2010) xxx–xxx State-and-Transition model for semi-arid rangelands. With this more realistic framework regarding the decision situation, we investigate how real-life resource users collectively organize the management of rangelands in different ecological states. Our subjects are rural villagers who originally share the Nama ethnic group as common ancestors but have experienced different historical and societal developments and, moreover, have to cope with different ecological environments. In many case studies of CPR management it has been found that attributes of the users, their governance system, the resource system, and the resource units matter for successful selfgovernance (Ostrom, 1990, 2007). Based on these frameworks we derive hypotheses for our study region to test whether the same effect of enhanced cooperation observed in case studies (mainly due to restriction in people's choice sets) can also be captured in an economic behavioural experiment. We hypothesize that Namibians have intact traditional norms and a longer history of cooperative grazing management which may favour cooperative behaviour in a social-dilemma experiment. In RSA, on the other hand, frequent and long-term interferences by external powers led to internal conflicts and a high incidence of corruption, which may have created obstacles to cooperation. Evidence for this claim comes from prior field experiments, anthropological and historical research. In our experiments, we find that the Namibian Nama play much more cooperatively than their relatives from South Africa. Our experiments were initially developed by Cardenas et al. (2008) and are presented in this volume by Castillo et al. (this volume). They find that participants in Thailand and Colombia (both fishermen and students) behave very similarly to our sample of South Africans. Since the Thai and Colombians have not experienced political problems similar to South Africa, we believe that some additional factors may drive the exceptionally successful resource management in Namibia. Thus, our main task is to explain the “outlier” that happened in Namibia where people acted extremely carefully in order to avoid degradation of their grazing areas. In addition to the different historical development, we present ecological evidence that the ecosystem in Namibia is more sensitive to overgrazing and more likely to become irreversibly degraded. Consequently, the payoffs to engage in cooperation in order to prevent degradation are higher in Namibia than in RSA. Therefore, we further hypothesize, similar to Henrich et al. (2005), that resource users who have higher benefits from cooperation in real life also behave more cooperatively in the experiment. Apart from the historical–political and ecological context differences, our subjects share very similar characteristics: They have a common ancestry, speak the same language, and have the same livelihoods (mainly livestock husbandry) and a similar sociodemographic composition. We thus believe that the most relevant differences between our Namibian and South African sample in our analysis are the different historical developments and the resource characteristics that simultaneously led to a different behaviour in Namibia as highlighted by co-evolutionary theories of institutional change (see cf. van den Bergh and Stagl, 2003). In order to test our historical–ecological hypothesis, we analyse individuals' propensity to cooperate in different resource scenarios, which require different degrees of cooperation, coordination and patience among resource users. Berseba Keetmanshoop Karasburg Warmbad Namibia South Africa Note: The experiments were conducted in the communal lands of Berseba in Namibia (rectangle with red frame) and in the Leliefontein reserve in the Namaqualand in South Africa (rectangle with green frame). Fig. 1. Map of the study site. section we outline the different ecological circumstances and historical developments of our study areas, as we think that both could have an influence on cooperative behaviour in our experiments. 2.1. The Historical and Societal Context 2. Predictions Based on the Historical and Ecological Background of the Study Area Originally, the Nama people of our study areas were semi-nomadic livestock herders who shared the same cultural norms and traditions. Oral traditions of the Nama as well as archaeological findings suggest that the Nama divided at the mouth of the Orange River around 2000 years ago: the “great Namaqua” moved northwards into southern Namibia, while the “little Namaqua” migrated into the south and settled in the Namaqualand in RSA (Boonzaier et al., 2000). The Nama people of Namibia and RSA experienced very different historical developments in the last three centuries. In South Africa, since the beginning of the colonial expansion into the Namaqualand in the early 18th century, the European settlers rapidly began to appropriate huge parts of the Nama territories. The substantial dispossession of land and the denial of migratory movements of their herds by the colonial administration replaced the traditional lifestyle of bartering and pastoralism among the Nama in RSA and gradually undermined their society and cultural identity (Boonzaier et al., 2000).1 Due to apartheid in Namaqualand people were displaced and resettled. The strong western influence (e.g. the imposition of western farming practices) and external interventions that the people in Namaqualand have been and are still facing can also Our experiments were carried out in two different regions that during apartheid were either former homelands or so called “coloured reserves” where the non-white population lived: In the communal lands of Berseba in southern Namibia (once called “Namaland”) and in the Leliefontein reserve in the Namaqualand in RSA (Fig. 1). In this 1 A further example for the erosion of cultural identity is the adoption of the Afrikaans language around 1800. The loss of Nama identity culminated in the denial of their ancestry in the late 20th century, when Nama people recognized themselves as “coloured” people and rejected the name Nama because of their marginal status in apartheid South Africa, where the Nama were publicly recognized as “primitive” or “backward”. Please cite this article as: Prediger, S., et al., The impact of culture and ecology on cooperation in a common-pool resource experiment, Ecol. Econ. (2010), doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2010.08.017 S. Prediger et al. / Ecological Economics xxx (2010) xxx–xxx be exemplified by the joint attempt of the apartheid administration and the local management board in 1984 to privatize the communal land into individualized, exclusive “economic units” (May and Lahiff, 2007). The establishment of “economic units” worsened the skewed distribution of access to land and wealth and fuelled the divide among the inhabitants of the communal areas, because the majority of them lost access to grazing land. Although the broad majority of the population successfully opposed the privatization, as the Supreme Court eventually overruled the system of “economic units” in 1988, the local dispute “has left a legacy of factional division and bitterness” within the communal areas (Cousins, 1996:11). Internal tensions among the inhabitants of our study area in Namaqualand seem to have continued during the ongoing land reform process since independence in 1994. The redistribution of former white-owned land especially abets affluent members of the communities and has led to “widespread discontent among those unable to access this land” (May and Lahiff, 2007: 778). In Namibia, the first Europeans arrived much later, mostly at the end of the 19th century after Germany became the colonial power in 1884. During the following three decades, the German colonial power broke local resistance and almost completely appropriated the Namas' ancestral land. Only the Nama tribe in our Namibian study area in Berseba could preserve large parts of their territory and retained their local institutions largely intact throughout colonial and apartheid regime (Kössler, 2001).2 As such the communal land of Berseba was still managed by captaincy and, despite some interference from colonial and apartheid regimes into internal affairs, the Berseba community could maintain self-governance until independence in 1990. In contrast to the Namaqualand, people in Namibia did not suffer from widespread corruption, and attempts to privatize the commons have never been made. In the last 10 years, communitybased projects like the formation of local water point associations or conservancies were initiated in the Berseba constituency in Namibia, showing that the communities there are capable of self-organization. In the Namaqualand, on the other hand, many community projects failed due to internal envy and mismanagement (Vollan, 2008). Moreover, in prior experiments conducted in our study areas it has been found that the Nama in Namibia exert significantly higher trust towards their community members than the Namaqualanders (Vollan, 2008). Given the signs for stronger community cohesion and norms of trust in Namibia, we assume them to be more cooperative in our grazing experiments. Nowadays, both areas lack behind the development of their countries and the vast majority still live on livestock production based on subsistence. A lack of formal employment and the neglect of the physical and social infrastructure during apartheid are important reasons for the widespread poverty in the communal lands. Moreover, in both areas inhabitants face similar social (e.g. HIV), economic (high unemployment, lack of entrepreneurship) and ecological challenges (resource degradation). 2.2. The Ecological Background Though both study areas are semi-arid, there are substantial ecological differences between them. While the communal lands of Berseba in Namibia lie within the Nama Karoo biome, our study area in Namaqualand (RSA) is situated in the Succulent Karoo biome. The Succulent Karoo is recognized as one of the world's most endangered biodiversity hotspot: In contrast to most other semi-arid biomes, 2 The colonial administration granted exclusive rights to the Berseba clan since they stayed aloof from the Nama Uprising against the German colonial power in 1804– 1807. For example, anthropological research shows that the people maintained traditional norms of generalized reciprocity (Klocke-Daffa, 1999). Moreover, the Namibian Nama still speak their indigenous language. 3 including the Nama Karoo in Namibia, annual rainfall is predictable and prolonged droughts are very rare (Cowling et al., 1999). These unique ecological features are responsible for the enormous plant diversity of the Namaqualand and make the ecosystem relatively robust. In the Nama Karoo in Namibia, on the other hand, rainfall is erratic and highly variable, ranging between 50 and 290 mm per annum (Kuiper and Meadows, 2002). Moreover, severe droughts are a common occurrence in the Berseba area (Namibia) and in turn make the ecosystem of the Nama Karoo more fragile and responsive to grazing. In both study areas, many parts of the communal land have switched into a different ecological state. Overstocking is doubtless a major driver of these changes. However, indicators of theses ecological changes differ remarkably between Namibia and RSA. In our Namibian study area (Nama Karoo), a sequence of long-term satellite images indicates that the change from commercial farm status to communal land has led to an increase in bare soil from 6.3% in 1970 to 11% in 1998 while it remained the same on a neighbouring government farm where stocking rates were significantly lower (Kuiper and Meadows, 2002). In addition to more bare patches, the ecological change in Namibia is characterized by less perennial grasses, lower species diversity and the abundance of “desert” species (Hoffmann and Zeller, 2005). In the Namaqualand in RSA (Succulent Karoo), on the other hand, heavy grazing did not lead to bare soils but to an increased density and recruitment of the unpalatable shrub Galenia africana (Todd and Hoffman, 1999) and a compositional shift towards smaller species. Thus, changes in the Succulent Karoo ecosystem in Namaqualand (RSA) occur slowly and more gradually, due to the predictable rainfall and the high plant diversity. But gradual changes, like a compositional shift towards smaller species, are not as visible as bare soils and thus only observable to scientists and people with good knowledge of indigenous plants.3 Yet, if changes in the resource system are not as easily observed and indicators (e.g. loss of certain species) to learn the resource dynamics are more difficult to recognize, a common understanding of the need for sustainable management is less likely to occur. On the other hand, the occurrence of bare soil patches in Namibia is easily observable to farmers and an unambiguous indicator of degradation. Bare patches yield no future income and are irreversibly destroyed in most cases (Visser et al., 2004). Thus, the payoffs to cooperation (from preventing degradation) are higher in Namibia than in RSA. Due to the higher payoffs to cooperation in real life, we hypothesize that Namibians manage the rangelands (at least in our experimental set-up) more successfully. 3. Experimental Design Our grazing experiments are based on the protocol of the fishery experiments of Cardenas et al. (2008) but translated to rangelands. The fishery experiments were conducted in Thailand and Colombia and their results are presented by Castillo et al. (this volume). We adopted their design as it reflects the inter-temporal dynamics of grazing in semi-arid rangelands and has features of path dependency of previous use, spatial variability and non-linearity of payoffs. The most important feature for our study area is the (temporary) resource degradation when a certain threshold has been exceeded. The Stateand-Transition model, developed by ecologists to evaluate rangeland dynamics in semi-arid regions, asserts that ecosystems are moving towards different stable states but that changes from higher to lower states and vice versa occur due to a combination of major events, such as droughts or little rainfall and high grazing pressure (Westoby et al., 3 Research of ethno-botanists supports this claim, as they report that knowledge of plants is rapidly disappearing in the Namaqualand (Boonzaier et al., 2000). Please cite this article as: Prediger, S., et al., The impact of culture and ecology on cooperation in a common-pool resource experiment, Ecol. Econ. (2010), doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2010.08.017 4 S. Prediger et al. / Ecological Economics xxx (2010) xxx–xxx • L2L2: both areas are in bad condition and each needs two rounds to recover. Table 1 Payoff table. Grazing quality Grazing intensity 0 1 2 High Low 0 0 7 2 8 3 Note: This table is based on Cardenas et al. (2008). 1989). The ecological states of rangelands differ with respect to resource availability and species composition: The lower the state, the less grazing is available. Our experimental design allows us to accommodate the heterogeneity of resource availability and thus to analyse subjects' propensity to cooperate in different ecological states. An experimental session consists of 5 participants and lasts for 10 rounds. The composition of groups remained unchanged throughout the session (fixed matching) and participants did not know the actual number of rounds in advance. In each round, similar to a grazing season, each participant decides whether to graze on area A or B, and she chooses either a low or a high stocking rate (intensity 1 or 2, respectively). Alternatively, she may choose to not graze at all (=intensity 0). According to the payoff table below (Table 1), returns to grazing do not only depend on individual intensities but also on the grazing quality, which can be good or bad.4 For example, an intensity of 1 gives seven tokens when the chosen grazing land is in good condition, but only two tokens in case the grazing quality is low.5 The aggregate group intensity on an area (i.e. the sum of the grazing intensities of all five group members on that area) in round t determines the grazing condition in the next round t + 1. If the aggregate group intensity exceeds the carrying capacity of 4 in round t, the grazing area switches to bad condition in round t + 1. (Since the maximum intensity each player can choose is 2, the aggregate intensity ranges between 0 and 10, for each area.) A grazing area of bad quality recovers to good quality if for two successive rounds the group grazing intensity is less or equal to 1 (in each round). This captures the observation for semi-arid rangelands that transitions are possible in both directions, but that changes from a lower to a higher ecological state require a substantial reduction of stocking rates for a relatively long time period (Visser et al., 2004). The design implies that a grazing area can either be in good condition (H) or in bad condition with two more rounds needed to recover (L2) or in bad condition with one more round needed to recover (L1, i.e. this area already has recovered one round). If the aggregate group intensity on an L1 area is larger than 1, the area switches back to L2. With two separate grazing areas, there are thus 6 possible ecological states a group might be facing: • HH: both areas are in good condition. • HL1: one area is in good condition; the other area is in bad condition but already has recovered one round. • HL2: one area is in good condition; the other area is in bad condition and needs two rounds to recover. • L1L1: both areas are in bad condition and each needs one more round to recover. • L1L2: one area is in bad condition and needs one more round to recover, the other area is also in bad condition but requires two rounds to recover. We would expect the degradation of one grazing area immediately after the initial round, leading to a situation with one good area and one bad area (HL2) in the beginning of period 2. (Because if all subjects apply an intensity of 2, then in one of the two grazing areas the maximum carrying capacity of 4 will be exceeded automatically. On the other hand, it is impossible that the carrying capacity is exceeded in both areas.) In the next round all players will choose the remaining location in good quality, resulting in a situation where both grazing areas are bad (L1L2) at the beginning of round 3. In that situation, both pastures yield the same return, but one grazing area (L1) will require only one more round to recover. Therefore, all players would spare the L1 area and choose an intensity of 2 on the L2 area. Consequently, in period 4 (and 6, 8 and 10), participants will face the same situation as in period 2, with one good grazing area and one bad area (HL2), and will choose again the area which yields the highest return. Therefore, individual payoff-maximizing behaviour can lead to a rotation system, where each second round one location will be in good condition. In a sequence of ten rounds, the resulting group return is 300 tokens. On the other hand, if subjects do not distinguish between L1 and L2 at the beginning of round 3, or if they are myopic, they are likely to get stuck in a situation where both grazing areas are degraded for the remaining eight rounds. Then, the group return will be at maximum 200 tokens at the end of round 10. Yet, if participants fully coordinated their actions, a group return of 382 tokens would be possible. Altogether we conducted 24 experimental sessions, 12 in the Namaqualand (RSA) and in the Berseba area (Namibia), respectively. In both study areas, formal employment opportunities are rare and for most households keeping livestock on subsistence basis is an important part of their livelihood (Kuiper and Meadows, 2002). Information on socio-demographic characteristics of our participants is presented in the supplementary material. The instructions of the experiments were presented orally (in Afrikaans) by the same experimenter in all 24 sessions. During the experiments, communication was impossible. 4. Results First, we examine the results without distinguishing between different levels of resource availability. Judged solely by the average group earnings after round 10, the results for Namibia (201 tokens) and RSA (191) are very close to the Nash-equilibrium of 200 tokens (which was predicted for the case where subjects do not distinguish between L1 and L2). However, group revenues vary substantially among the groups, ranging from a minimum of 139 (164) tokens up to 279 (249) in Namibia (RSA).6 Furthermore, subjects did not behave as selfishly as predicted: The maximum intensity of 2 units was applied in only 38.5% of all cases, and in about 21% of all cases the intensity zero was chosen. In none of the sessions we observed the presumed ‘rotational pattern’ where subjects would have one good pasture to graze on each second round and which would have evolved if subjects followed a payoff-maximizing behaviour but differentiated between low quality areas that need one respectively two rounds to recover. If faced with asymmetric resource conditions (i.e. the scenarios HL2, HL1 and L1L2), a substantial fraction of subjects did not choose the grazing area one might have expected. In the scenarios HL1 and HL2, for example, a fraction of 22% decided to graze on the low quality pasture and not, as predicted, on the good pasture, implying that the bad 4 The payoff table is the same for both locations. The tokens were converted to South African Rand (ZAR) or Namibian Dollar (NAD), respectively. Both currencies are accepted means of payment in Namibia and are pegged at a 1:1 exchange ratio. One token was worth ZAR/NAD 0.25. The average exchange rate was 7.153 ZAR/$ at that time. 5 6 On average, individuals earned 39 tokens (≈ZAR 10) until round ten, ranging from 20 to 68 tokens. In addition to these earnings, everybody received a showing-up fee of ZAR 10. Please cite this article as: Prediger, S., et al., The impact of culture and ecology on cooperation in a common-pool resource experiment, Ecol. Econ. (2010), doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2010.08.017 S. Prediger et al. / Ecological Economics xxx (2010) xxx–xxx 5 % pastures in good condition 100 80 RSA 60 NAM 40 20 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Notes : The continuous red (green) line with squares (triangles) indicates the percentage of good condition grazing areas in Namibia (South Africa) over the course of the game. The red and green dashed lines represent the 95%-confidence intervals. Fig. 2. Comparison of average stock levels between countries. pastures did not rest and thus could not recover. As shown in Fig. 2, substantial differences between Namibia and RSA are visible when we examine the evolution during the 10 rounds. Fig. 2 shows the average resource availability, measured by the number of grazing areas in good condition per round in per cent, in Namibia and RSA. South Africans had difficulties in both, maintaining high resource availability as well as in recovering from low stock levels. At the latest after four rounds, all South African groups were trapped in a situation where both locations were in bad condition. Only 4% of grazing areas were in good quality at the end of round 10 (line with triangles). A very similar situation is observed by Castillo et al. (this volume) in the fishery games for Colombia and Thailand. Furthermore, none of the groups in RSA ever recovered to the initial situation of having two good pastures. On the contrary, Namibians were remarkably successful in resource management by sustaining 42% of pastures in good quality after round 10. Moreover, half of all groups could manage to regain full resource availability (HH) when faced with degradation the first time and needed on average only 3.16 rounds to recover. In general we find the Namibian groups to be more successful, as they achieved grazing improvements in 48% of all possible cases, compared to 27% in RSA. Examples for grazing improvements include switches from L1L2 to HL2 or from L2L2 to L1L2. turn our focus on area choices made by the individuals if confronted with the scenario HL2. The covariates we use in all regression analyses are classified into three different groups of variables: socio-demographic, collective action and group variables.7 Since we expect intensity and area choices to depend on some village morality we include an index measure of surveyed trust and dummies for subjects' self-assessment about their influence within the community and voluntary community work. We further control for the exogenous variable “round number”, since cooperation might increase or decrease over time. The first column of Table 2 displays the marginal effects on the probability of applying intensity two in the scenario where grazing is abundantly available, i.e. where either both pastures are in good condition (HH), or one grazing area is in good and the other one in bad condition, but needs only one more round to recover (HL1). Both resource scenarios are quite similar in that subjects can face high resource availability in one pasture for the next two successive rounds.8 To avoid degradation, the only cooperative strategy is to apply a maximum intensity of one unit.9 We find Namibians to be significantly more likely to choose either no intensity or an intensity 4.1. Cooperation Under Four Different Ecological Conditions Fig. 2 revealed a substantial difference between Namibia and RSA. The rapid destruction of both grazing areas as well as the relatively low incidence of grazing improvements suggests that South Africans behave less cooperatively than their ancient relatives from Namibia. However, it might be the case that South Africans behave cooperatively too, at least in certain ecological situations, but fail to coordinate their actions. The resource scenario HL2, for instance, constitutes an ecological condition where cooperation and coordination is required, as more than one strategy can result in resource recovery. It is also possible that South Africans exhibit an intention to cooperate initially, but are too myopic to regain recovery. This might be the case in the scenario L2L2, where cooperative behaviour (here applying intensity zero) ensures recovery only if the players are patient, i.e. if they have a time horizon of two rounds. We distinguish among four different resource scenarios a group might be facing, and first examine individual intensity choices of Namibians and South Africans in each scenario. In Section 4.2, we then 7 The independent variables married, female, permanent work, farmer, voluntary community work, Namibia and community involvement are categorical variables. The reference category for marital status is single, widowed or divorced, and for employment status is occasional work, pension or unemployed. Age is measured in years. Education is an ordinal scaled variable with the characteristics “some primary school” (1.7%), “primary school” (12%), “secondary school” (80%), “technical” (3.4%) and “university/post-university” (2.6%). Community involvement takes 1 if subjects answered the question “How much influence do you think people like yourself can have in making this village a better place to live?” with “a lot”. Voluntary community work is a categorical variable that takes 1 if subjects were engaged in voluntary work during the last year. The considered group variables are: The fraction of female subjects and farmers (ranging from 0 to 1) and the average age of the other group members. Trust is an index variable ranging from 0 (no trust) and 4 (high trust) constructed with answers of different statements (see supplementary material). 8 This is also the case in the situation HL1, because we expect that in this situation one would usually either choose the grazing area H or alternatively zero intensity in order to let the L1 area rest for one more round. Therefore, in the next period the L1 area has recovered back to high quality. 9 This strategy can still cause degradation if all five players choose the same grazing area and intensity one. Yet, the probability that all subjects choose the same location is only 6.25%. Please cite this article as: Prediger, S., et al., The impact of culture and ecology on cooperation in a common-pool resource experiment, Ecol. Econ. (2010), doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2010.08.017 6 S. Prediger et al. / Ecological Economics xxx (2010) xxx–xxx Table 2 Marginal effects after ordered probit estimations for individual intensity choices. Y: individual intensity Namibia Socio-demographics Education Age Married Female Permanent work Farmer Collective action Voluntary Community work Trust index Community involvement Group variables Average age Fraction female Fraction farmer Round number Dummy for HL1 i.e. one grazing area L1 Observations Chi square Degrees of freedom Pseudo R² Log Likelihood SE adjusted for clusters HH and HL1 resource abundance L1L2 resource scarcity (short-term cooperation) L2L2 resource scarcity (long-term cooperation) HL2 spatial resource availability −0.419*** (0.068) −0.265*** (0.102) −0.304*** (0.089) −0.429*** (0.069) 0.104 (0.069) 0.005* (0.003) −0.076 (0.083) 0.016 (0.075) −0.079 (0.084) −0.020 (0.068) −0.057 (0.053) 0.001 (0.003) 0.125 (0.128) 0.140 (0.119) −0.189* (0.108) 0.019 (0.121) −0.025 (0.040) −0.001 (0.003) 0.110 (0.095) 0.273*** (0.077) −0.181* (0.094) −0.040 (0.094) 0.054* (0.030) 0.002 (0.002) −0.103 (0.067) −0.027 (0.062) 0.206*** (0.076) 0.028 (0.067) −0.043 (0.064) 0.019 (0.058) 0.116* (0.064) −0.040 (0.096) −0.071 (0.085) 0.025 (0.099) −0.291*** (0.066) −0.102 (0.083) 0.142 (0.097) −0.082 (0.057) 0.007 (0.053) 0.015 (0.062) −0.001 (0.004) −0.019 (0.143) 0.174 (0.145) 0.039*** (0.011) −0.424*** (0.062) 263 93.71*** 15 0.152 −232.4 53 0.003 (0.006) −0.163 (0.232) −0.114 (0.220) 0.004 (0.016) 0.001 (0.004) 0.076 (0.189) −0.128 (0.193) 0.031** (0.014) −0.009*** (0.003) −0.009 (0.118) 0.043 (0.118) −0.031*** (0.010) 153 23.29*** 14 0.0796 −153.4 71 229 75.31*** 14 0.105 −209.7 71 273 75.66*** 14 0.144 −247.3 93 Notes: Dependent variable is the intensity chosen (each individual, each round), which can be 0, 1 or 2. Ordered probit estimation. The table shows the estimated marginal effects for the probability of choosing an intensity of 2. Not shown are the marginal effects for the probability of choosing an intensity of 0, nor for 1, nor the marginal effects on the mean intensity. These omitted results led to similar qualitative conclusions. ***, **, and * indicates statistical significance at the 1%, 5%, and 10% level, respectively. Standard errors (shown in parentheses) are adjusted for clusters at the individual level. The number of observations included in the estimations differ from the actual number of observations in each scenario due to missing values of some covariates. of 1 and less likely to apply the highest intensity.10 We obtain the same results if we analyse country differences in intensity choices unconditionally, i.e. without controlling for further covariates. The mean intensities in HH and HL1 differ significantly between Namibia and RSA: Subjects from Namibia apply an average intensity of 1.09 units, compared to 1.63 in RSA (t = 6.04***). Only few South Africans (6.7%) choose 0 when facing HH or HL1, while two thirds chose 2, compared to about 31% in Namibia. This explains the fast resource depletion observed for South Africa in Fig. 2. The second and third columns of Table 2 show intensity choices when resources are scarce and profits uncertain. We distinguish 10 In Table 2, we report only the marginal effects for the probability of choosing intensity two. However, in all four resource scenarios we obtain highly statistically significant (1% level) coefficients for intensity zero as well. The marginal effects for intensity zero and one are available as supplementary material. The supplementary material also contains further univariate and multivariate regression results. For example, we report results of a regression model for each scenario, where we include several game history variables (e.g. the cumulated and previous round individual and relative profit) as further covariates. The strong country effect reported in Table 2 remains highly significant if we take the game history into account. Furthermore, we perform separate regressions for HH and HL1 and obtain a significant country difference as well for each scenario. between two situations where higher future returns can be realized soonest either in one period (L1L2) or in two periods (L2L2).11 The first case requires cooperation in the short-run by letting rest the area which needs only one round to recover (L1). In the latter case, transition from the current to a better ecological state is possible, but requires low stocking rates (at maximum one unit in at least one grazing area) for two consecutive rounds and thus long-term cooperation and patience among the subjects. In other words, the benefits from cooperating for only one round are zero in L2L2. Again we find a highly significant country effect: The likelihood of choosing intensity 2 is 30 and 26.5 percentage points lower for Namibians under L2L2 and L1L2, respectively. Moreover, Namibians are significantly more likely to choose zero: 40% of the participants from Namibia applied zero intensity in L2L2, compared to only about 14% in RSA. We observe similar choices in L1L2, where about 80% of South Africans chose either a low or high intensity, while the fraction of Namibians who grazed with an effort of zero was larger than 55%. These patterns explain why full recovery has never been reached in 11 The L1L1 scenario provides the prospect of recovery of both pastures in the following round and thus constitutes a situation requiring short-term cooperation, too. However, because the situation L1L1 was never observed in any of the experiments in RSA, we exclude it from the analyses. Please cite this article as: Prediger, S., et al., The impact of culture and ecology on cooperation in a common-pool resource experiment, Ecol. Econ. (2010), doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2010.08.017 S. Prediger et al. / Ecological Economics xxx (2010) xxx–xxx RSA. Whereas Namibians cooperate already more successfully if resources are plentiful, they a fortiori outperform their relatives from RSA in case of severe resource scarcity. The same conclusion can be drawn for scenario HL2 (column four of Table 2) where resource availability varies spatially. Here we obtain a highly significant country effect as well. We do not find any demographic characteristics to be significant in all four scenarios. Only two covariates have a significant impact in more than one scenario: round number and permanent work. Round number has a positive effect in HH, HL1 and L2L2, implying that subjects play more selfishly over time, whereas they play more and more carefully over time when facing the situation HL2. Permanent work has a negative impact in L1L2 and L2L2, albeit only weakly significant. Hence, when resources are scarce, permanently employed subjects are more willing to cooperate than occasional workers, pensioners and jobless individuals. When facing HL2, however, permanently employed workers are more likely to choose intensity 2. Yet, this need not necessarily be an uncooperative strategy as we discuss in the next subsection. It is noteworthy that we do not observe qualitative changes of the covariates in Table 2 if we drop the country dummy. Thus, there is no evidence that the significant country difference is driven by differences in socio-demographics. Moreover, the pseudo-R² and Chi2 values declined substantially, indicating that the country dummy has high explanatory power for intensity choices. To examine whether we had problems of multicollinearity, we regress age and farmer on the remaining covariates of Table 2 using simple OLS regressions respectively probit estimations if farmer is the dependent variable. If there was collinearity, we should observe an R² (respectively pseudo-R²) close to 1. However, because this was not the case, there is no evidence for multicollinearity. In addition, we also repeated the regressions of Table 2 after dropping one or two of the covariates. Dropping these covariates, however, did not make any of the other covariates statistically significant (as one would have expected if the reason for their non-significance had been the nearcollinearity with the other covariates). 7 Table 3 Marginal effects after multinomial logit estimation for location choices if HL2. Y: location choice HL2 No grazing Namibia Socio-demographics Education Age Married Female Permanent work Farmer Collective action Voluntary community work Trust index Community involvement Group variables Average age Fraction female Fraction farmer Previous round Round number Bad grazing Good grazing 0.338*** (0.042) 0.078 (0.054) −0.416*** (0.060) 0.008 (0.015) −0.001 (0.001) 0.163*** (0.055) 0.022 (0.049) −0.074** (0.031) −0.009 (0.040) −0.033 (0.064) −0.001 (0.002) −0.039 (0.060) 0.078 (0.059) 0.170* (0.095) 0.187*** (0.063) 0.025 (0.061) 0.002 (0.002) −0.124 (0.078) −0.101* (0.060) −0.095 (0.095) −0.178*** (0.061) 0.055 (0.035) −0.021 (0.030) −0.036 (0.043) −0.024 (0.057) −0.027 (0.039) 0.031 (0.061) −0.030 (0.061) 0.049 (0.042) 0.004 (0.071) 0.011*** (0.002) 0.089 (0.107) −0.035 (0.091) −0.001 (0.002) 0.073 (0.121) −0.038 (0.095) −0.009*** (0.003) −0.162 (0.143) 0.073 (0.116) −0.011 (0.008) −0.010 (0.011) 0.0208*** (0.008) Notes: Dependent variable is the chosen grazing area: Either H (good grazing), L2 (bad grazing) or no grazing. The regression includes only those observations where the group faced the grazing condition HL2, i.e. one grazing area in good and the other in bad condition L2. ***, **, and * indicate statistical significance at the 1%, 5%, and 10% level respectively. Standard errors (shown in parentheses) adjusted for 93 clusters at the individual level. Number of observations: 273, Chi2: 129.1***, degrees of freedom, pseudo-R²: 0.178 and log-likelihood: −217.5. 4.2. Cooperation Under Spatial Resource Differences In semi-arid areas, overstocking might occur only in some areas and is both a coordination problem of moving the animals to the ‘right’ grazing area and a cooperation problem to prevent free-riding. The scenario HL2 constitutes such an ecological condition which requires cooperation and coordination. In Table 3 we investigate whether Namibians and South Africans behave differently when facing this scenario. Subjects are confronted with three different alternatives in HL2: No grazing, grazing on bad pasture and grazing on good pasture. Apart from choosing intensity zero, there are basically two (long-term) strategies an individual with cooperative intentions could pursue: One strategy is to try to retain always one high quality grazing area and leave the bad grazing area for further exploitation. In this case, one would in most cases choose an intensity of two on the bad area L2, and only occasionally one would graze on the good area (hoping that not too many other people choose this area in the same round to avoid degradation). The other strategy is to use the grazing areas in a rotation system: One would let the bad area rest for two rounds to recover and exploits the good area in this time. After the L2 area has recovered after two rounds, one exploits this area and lets the other area (which presumably had been degraded in the meantime) rest for two rounds. This leads to a rotation system, where in every second round both grazing areas are of bad quality. The coordination problem in this scenario arises from the fact that the subjects do not know which strategy the other group members will aim for. But both strategies can only be successful if all group members adhere to the same strategy. We will consider the first of these two strategies as more cooperative in the sense that choosing the bad area signals a clear intention that one wants to cooperate and values very highly the existence and maintenance of one good grazing area. On the other hand, choosing the good area (as in the rotation strategy) does not send such a cooperation signal since a fully egoistic player would also choose the good area. Of course, choosing an intensity of zero signals an even higher willingness to cooperate. Since the independent variables do not vary over the alternatives, we use a multinomial logit regression model. Table 3 presents the marginal effects for the three alternatives: Intensity zero (i.e. no grazing), choosing the bad area, choosing the good area. Namibians are significantly more likely to choose zero intensity and choose also more frequently the bad area. On the other hand, they rarely choose the good grazing area, compared to South Africans. These results suggest that Namibians do not aim for a rotation system, as only a fraction of 45% graze on the good pasture. Furthermore, if the majority of Namibians applied a rotation system, we would expect the grazing situation to be either L1L2 or L2L2 in the subsequent round. But we observe the opposite: Namibian groups sustain one pasture in good condition in 76% of all situations after having faced HL2 in the previous round. Moreover, five out of twelve groups even conserve one good area for the entire course of the game and consequently never face a situation where both pastures are degraded. These patterns and the high fraction of Namibians who abstain from grazing (31%) suggest Please cite this article as: Prediger, S., et al., The impact of culture and ecology on cooperation in a common-pool resource experiment, Ecol. Econ. (2010), doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2010.08.017 8 S. Prediger et al. / Ecological Economics xxx (2010) xxx–xxx that Namibians rather aim for the strategy which ensures the conservation of at least one area in good condition.12 In South Africa, on the other hand, the interpretation of the behavioural patterns is ambiguous, as individual area choices suggest a strong preference for either payoff maximization or the rotation system. 75% of South Africans graze on the good pasture when facing HL2 (63% of them with intensity two) and only 7% abstain from grazing. However, there is only one group that successfully applied the rotation system. All other groups failed: In 5 groups both pastures were degraded until the end of the game after facing HL2. The other 6 groups achieved once again a situation where one of the grazing areas was in good condition, but only after getting stuck in L1L2 or L2L2 for on average 4.6 rounds. Hence, if the intention of the majority of South Africans is to establish a rotation system, then this attempt failed because the groups are not able to solve the coordination problem which arises with the rotation system. A successful rotation system requires that all group members graze on the good pasture and let the bad pasture rest, so that the group faces the situation L1L2 in the subsequent round. In that situation, which was the subsequent outcome after HL2 in 55% of all cases in RSA, subjects can follow their dominant strategy without risking recovery of one area since the heterogeneity of the pastures should automatically coordinate their actions. However, a substantial fraction of South Africans (18%) does not use this contrivance of coordination when confronted with L1L2 subsequently after HL2, but graze on L1 and hence make recovery impossible.13 The analysis of area choices under HL2 revealed two major results: First, Namibians behave more cooperatively than South Africans, as about one third of them choose intensity zero, which constitutes the biggest individual sacrifice and is an unambiguous indication for cooperative intentions. Second, Namibian groups are more successful in solving the coordination problem. Most Namibian groups seem to apply the strategy which aims at maintaining one pasture in good condition. South African groups, on the other hand, rather aim for short-run profit maximization or the rotation system. However, the rotation strategy fails because a substantial fraction of individuals grazes on the “wrong” area, either already in the situation HL2, or latest in the situation L1L2. It might be that some subjects interpret the behaviour of those who graze on the high quality area not as an attempt to apply a rotation strategy, but rather as pure egoism (which may indeed be the case). Thus, a problem of the rotation system in our experimental set-up, where communication is prohibited, might be that it does not unambiguously signal whether the group members have cooperative or egoistic motives when choosing the high quality area. 5. Discussion Our study investigated subjects’ cooperativeness under various resource scenarios which aimed to reflect real-life resource patterns in a semi-arid study area. We found Namibian Nama to be significantly more successful in managing common-pool resources (CPR) than the South Africans: They were more cooperative and more successful in coordinating their actions. In Section 2, we hypothesized that a combination of different historical developments and higher payoffs to cooperation in Namibia (stemming from the more fragile ecological preconditions of the Nama Karoo) may explain the significant country effect. In order to substantiate the theoretical argument of our historical–ecological hypothesis, we draw on 12 The same seems to be true for farmers, who choose significantly more likely the bad grazing area and less likely the good area (Table 3). Moreover, if we include an interaction term between Namibia and farmer we observe that especially Namibian farmers prefer to graze on the bad pasture. 13 In 22% of all cases South African groups faced the situation L2L2 immediately after HL2. That situation is even worse as a contrivance of coordination does not exist. Ostrom's (2007) framework for successful self-governance and discuss alternative hypotheses first. In a second step, we relate the results of our grazing experiments to prior experimental studies. 5.1. Alternative Hypotheses Ostrom (2007) proposes a framework for successful self-governance that considers (i) the resource system (e.g. fishery, grazing area), (ii) the resource units generated by that system (e.g. fish, fodder), (iii) the users of that system, and (iv) the governance system as main attributes. While the resource system (pasture) and the resource unit (fodder for small livestock) belong to ecological factors, the user characteristics and governance system are influenced by societal and historical aspects. Although we have made no rigorous assessment of all the 33 proposed second tier variables, we argue, based on our knowledge of the study region as well as on secondary data, that southern Namibia and Namaqualand are more or less identical with respect to many of these components. Ecological factors like the size of the resource system, the lack of clear boundaries (no fences but agreed upon boundaries), similar man-made infrastructure (collectively used water points), the economic value of the livestock (same market access and similar prices), or the growth rate of plants are very similar in both regions. Regarding the governance system and user characteristics we find government and non-government organisations with similar duties and frequency of meetings, a comparable common property arrangement, a lack of monitoring and sanctioning by the users or an external agency and little experience with entrepreneurship in both regions. Moreover, farmers use the same “technology” (extensive livestock keeping) for their livestock production. One important factor for effective self-governance is that users are dependent on the CPR for a major portion of their livelihood and plan to use the resources also in the future. Castillo et al. (this volume) observe in the fishery games that Colombian and Thai fishermen behave very similar to our subjects from South Africa. Discussions and role games with the fishermen revealed that they assume others will take as much as possible, so that they have no other choice than to fish (to feed the family). However, there is no reason to assume that Namibians are less dependent on the resource than South Africans, and that they therefore had more time to wait and to cooperate in the experiment. (In our sample, the fraction of subjects whose main cash income source is farming is even higher in Namibia than in RSA. Moreover, the fraction of permanent workers, i.e. those who are least dependent on grazing, is almost the same in both samples) Thus, we think that Namibians rely at least as much on farming as South Africans. Differences between the sites with respect to socio-demographic characteristics or group composition cannot be the reason for the huge country difference either, since we control for these in the regression analyses. In addition, in contrast to most studies carried out across diverse societies, we could avoid potential language, currency and experimenter effects which can confound the results and which have been recognized as the main problems for cross-cultural comparisons (Roth et al., 1991). 5.2. Comparing the Results with Prior Experiments The authors had carried out two other experiments: (i) a trust game and a framed CPR experiment with the same population (Vollan, 2008) and (ii) an unpublished grazing experiment with a different population. The unpublished grazing experiment was performed nine months later in other communities to avoid the recruitment of subjects who had heard about the previous grazing experiment. The trust games revealed significant lower trust in Namaqualand: Subjects from Namaqualand sent on average only 20% of their initial endowment compared to 40% in Namibia. If trust is seen as an important cooperation enhancing factor, then the results of our Please cite this article as: Prediger, S., et al., The impact of culture and ecology on cooperation in a common-pool resource experiment, Ecol. Econ. (2010), doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2010.08.017 S. Prediger et al. / Ecological Economics xxx (2010) xxx–xxx grazing experiment are in line with those from the trust game. The comparably low level of trust and cooperation among the Namaqualanders may be ascribed to the internal conflicts and the high incidence of corruption reported in Section 2.1. However, if these aspects and thus the historical context provided the only impact on cooperation we should also have observed Namibians playing significantly more cooperatively in the CPR experiment and the follow-up grazing game, which were both framed as grazing management tasks. But the CPR experiment showed no differences in the open access scenario between the two countries (only in the adoption of new rules),14 and in the follow-up grazing experiment, where we eased the coordination problem (we basically changed the threshold level from 4 to 5 units), the strong country effect was less apparent. Although Namibians still applied significantly lower average intensities there (1.14 compared to 1.28 in RSA, t = 3.29***), both Namibians and South Africans had a good grazing in 50% of all cases at round 10. This shows that South Africans are able to coordinate once the threshold level is increased and thus the setup is much easier (the coordination problem was much less serious because it was now possible for all players to exert an intensity of 1 without causing a bad grazing situation). However, especially in situations of resource scarcity, i.e. when both pastures were degraded and coordination and strong cooperation was required, Namibians played significantly more successfully and reached resource recovery faster than South Africans. Thus it seems that the threat of long-term resource degradation enhances cooperation among Namibians, while it does not so among South Africans. The high degree of cooperation and successful coordination among Namibians in situations with threat of long-term resource scarcity, observed in both grazing experiments, might be, at least partly, attributed to their specific ecological knowledge on the fragility of the ecosystem, stemming from clearer and better observable indicators of degradation in real life (i.e. bare soil patches). In South Africa, on the other hand, there is a lack of reliable indicators and the resource dynamics are less predictable. These might also be features of fishing grounds and could explain why Thai and Colombian fishermen in the fishery experiment (Castillo et al., this volume) played similar to South Africans in the grazing game, i.e. why they got stuck in situations of resource scarcity. Similarly, this could explain why Vollan (2008) did not observe a significant country difference in the CPR experiment, where features of coordination, degradation and resource scarcity were not incorporated. The influence of participants' specific ecological knowledge on the fragility of the ecosystem, in particular the threat of degradation (which is irreversible in real-life), may matter more in experiments closely framed to real life and which incorporate the features mentioned above, such as the grazing game. 5.3. Summary The discussion reveals that (unfortunately) neither the results of the presented experiment, nor those of previous experiments enable us to strictly separate the effects of the historical from the ecological background. Both aspects are captured in the dummy variable for Namibia. One possibility to disentangle both aspects from each other would be to conduct a series of experiments in two study sites within the same district, i.e. where participants sharing the same cultural background were affected by identical political respectively historical context, but where the ecosystems are different with respect to indicators for ecological changes (or vice versa). We leave this for future research. Nevertheless we think that our study could highlight some important factors that shape human behaviour. 14 In the CPR experiments, the introduction of a penalty rule led to a crowding out effect of cooperative behaviour in Namibia compared to the open access situation (Vollan, 2008). This can only occur when people have already reached a high degree of morality. 9 Based on Ostrom's framework for successful self-governance, we believe that the main differences in the attributes of the users and the governance system are that Namibians have an autonomous management of their resources (including some freedom in designing operational or collective choice rules whereas the government in RSA dictates management plans) within a relatively stable population with intact norms and social capital. These differences have been derived from historical events and are features that have already been mentioned as important factors for sustainable local level CPR management by Ostrom (1990). The main difference in the attributes of the resource units and the resource system is the lack of reliable and easily observable indicators of ecological changes in the resource system in South Africa. In Namibia, on the other hand, the increasing occurrence of bare soil patches is a clear and easily observable indicator of degradation for the resource users. This threat of irreversible degradation can be an important cooperation enhancing ecological factor in Namibia, because a degraded grazing area with bare soil becomes useless for many years. Acknowledgments This research is part of the BIOTA Southern Africa Project and is funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (Commission number: 01 LC 0024A). We thank J.C. Cardenas, M.A. Janssen and F. 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