Guidelines for future developments
Tiziana Paccagnella, ARPA-SIM
6th General COSMO meeting MILANO 22-24 September 2004
Work Packages/Groups Coordinators meeting
Bologna, 9-10 September 2004
Preliminary planning of activities for the next year
2004 - 2005
6th General COSMO meeting MILANO 22-24 September 2004
• Perspectives and specific tasks for
next year have been drafted as a
preparatory work for the planning
phase of tomorrow.
6th General COSMO meeting MILANO 22-24 September 2004
Planning procedure
WG coordinators
SPM
WG coordinators
Input from WG
participants
SPM
STC
GOALS/PERPECTIVES
Long term (some years)
aims/objectives
ROAD MAPS
How to achieve these
objectives
SPECIFIC
TASKS/NEXT YEAR
ACTIVITIES
Precise definition of
work packagess
During the
preparatory
phase of the
COSMO
general
meeting
6th General COSMO meeting MILANO 22-24 September 2004
Planning procedure
TOP priorities are identified as regards both
ROAD MAPS
and
SPECIFIC TASKS
6th General COSMO meeting MILANO 22-24 September 2004
ACTIVITIES, and precise definition of
work-packages, are discussed and
almost completely defined during the
COSMO general meeting.
Activities plan includes:
•Definition of TOP priorities
•Committments with time schedule
6th General COSMO meeting MILANO 22-24 September 2004
Planning procedure
After the general meeting the final
tuning of the yearly working plan is
completed in about 1 month period.
End of November the working plan is
presented to the STC for the final
approval.
After approval of Top priorities STC
members should do their best to assure
committments will be fulfilled.
6th General COSMO meeting MILANO 22-24 September 2004
3
2
Enhance Use of
Remote-sensing data
in data assimilation
Doing
high resolution
forecast at the
1
Improve of LM meso-gamma scale
system
At the current
Resolution
6
Improve
exchange
with other consortia
4
Development of
Ensemble Systems
Based on LM
5
Improve
internal exchange
and
communications
6th General COSMO meeting MILANO 22-24 September 2004
2
Doing
high resolution
forecast at the
meso-gamma scale
1
Improve of LM
system
At the current
Resolution
•Assimilation of radar data
•Assimilation of satellite data
•GPS Tomography
•Tuning of the nudging scheme
•Nudging scheme for z-coordinates
•Use of surface level data
•LM-Z or not LM-Z
•Increase the accuracy with the
required efficiency (operational
requirements)
•Complete the implementation of the
Lake model
•Implementation of 3–D turbulence
•Improve the QPF at scales at
•Development of radiation scheme
which deep convection must
•Implementation of soil model
be parametrized
•Advanced microphysics scheme
•Improvement of PBL
•Post-processing
•Shallow convection
•Verification on the meso-gamma scale•Meso-gamma radiation
6th General COSMO meeting MILANO 22-24 September 2004
Road maps
3
•Assessment of COSMO-LEPS
•………………
Development of
Ensemble Systems
6th General COSMO meeting MILANO 22-24 September 2004
Road maps
5
4
Improve
exchange
with other consortia
Improve
internal exchange
and
communications
•Some test cases for intercomparison
with AROME
Visiting scientist programme
Guidelines
Post-Processing SW
High quality WEB site with updated
documentation and information also for
internal exchanges
WG6 workshop with special about
operational implementations
6th General COSMO meeting MILANO 22-24 September 2004
Road maps
P1-P2-P4)
P1-P2-P4)
P1-P2-P4)
probabilistic verification
Improve exchange and comparison
of results (mainly on the WEB )
Definition of “common LM
problems
P1-P2-P4-P5)
P1-P2-P4)
Consolidation of common data-set
Common verification package at
ECMWF
P1-P2-P3-P4)
Exchange of data with other
consortiaP1-P2-P3-P4-P5) Visiting scientist programme
6th General COSMO meeting MILANO 22-24 September 2004
Suggestions
• concentrate on core activities => smaller
number of WPs
• Avoid to put interest; try to define precise
contributions (small but as realistic as
possible)
• Keep the WG coordinator informed
• WG coordinators must spread information
within their WG
6th General COSMO meeting MILANO 22-24 September 2004
Good work!
6th General COSMO meeting MILANO 22-24 September 2004
Goals and perspectives for the past COSMO period
(10/2003-09/2004) are:
Goals :
Consolidation, Documentation and Upgrade of the LM
Quality of precipitation forecast
Assessment of the 'realism' of forecasts
Multi-national assement assesment of COSMO-LEPS products
Assimilation of remote sensing data
Application and Interpretation
Statistical interpretation of high resolution forecasts
Paving the way for the Meso-gamma scale
Z-coordinate model version
New parameterization schemes
forefront verification and case studies
Perspective Issues are:
6th General
COSMO meeting
22-24 September
2004Parameters
Variational
Methods
for MILANO
Estimating
Local