JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 117, C08033, doi:10.1029/2012JC007902, 2012 Relative importance of pelagic and sediment respiration in causing hypoxia in a deep estuary D. Bourgault,1 F. Cyr,1 P. S. Galbraith,2 and E. Pelletier1 Received 18 January 2012; revised 15 June 2012; accepted 28 June 2012; published 25 August 2012. [1] Oxygen depletion in the 100-m thick bottom layer of the deep Lower St. Lawrence Estuary is currently thought to be principally caused by benthic oxygen demand overcoming turbulent oxygenation from overlying layers, with pelagic respiration playing a secondary role. This conception is revisited with idealized numerical simulations, historical oxygen observations and new turbulence measurements. Results indicate that a dominant sediment oxygen demand, over pelagic, is incompatible with the shape of observed oxygen profiles. It is further argued that to sustain oxygen depletion, the turbulent diffusivity in the bottom waters should be ≪104 m2 s1, consistent with direct measurements but contrary to previous model results. A new model that includes an Arrhenius-type function for pelagic respiration and a parameterization for turbulence diffusivity is developed. The model demonstrates the importance of the bottom boundary layer in reproducing the shape of oxygen profiles and reproduces to within 14% the observed change in oxygen concentration in the Lower St. Lawrence Estuary. The analysis indicates that turbulent oxygenation represents about 8% of the sum of sediment and pelagic oxygen demand, consistent with the low turbulent oxygenation required to maintain oxygen depletion. However, contrary to previous hypotheses, it is concluded that pelagic oxygen demand needs to be five time larger than sediment oxygen demand to explain hypoxia in the 100-m thick bottom layer of the Lower St. Lawrence Estuary. Citation: Bourgault, D., F. Cyr, P. S. Galbraith, and E. Pelletier (2012), Relative importance of pelagic and sediment respiration in causing hypoxia in a deep estuary, J. Geophys. Res., 117, C08033, doi:10.1029/2012JC007902. 1. Introduction [2] A general problem for understanding and modeling hypoxia in marine systems is to determine the relative importance of benthic versus pelagic oxygen demand [Hetland and DiMarco, 2008; Pena et al., 2010]. This determination has important consequences in the choice of the model to adopt as well as in the direction to concentrate research efforts. In general, hypoxia in deep (≫100 m) marine systems is little affected by sediment processes given the power-law decrease with depth of particulate organic carbon fluxes [Buesseler et al., 2007; Pena et al., 2010]. In shallow seas (<100 m), sediment oxygen demand contributes more directly to hypoxia [Pena et al., 2010; Rabalais et al., 2010] although Hopkinson and Smith [2005] concluded that only 24% of total organic inputs are respired by the benthos in shallow estuaries (10 m). [3] Within this context we re-examine here the relative importance of benthic and pelagic oxygen demand in 1 Institut des sciences de la mer de Rimouski, UQAR, Rimouski, Québec, Canada. 2 Maurice-Lamontagne Institute, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, MontJoli, Québec, Canada. Corresponding author: D. Bourgault, Institut des sciences de la mer de Rimouski, UQAR, 310 allée des Ursulines, Rimouski, QC G5L 3A1, Canada. ([email protected]) ©2012. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. 0148-0227/12/2012JC007902 causing hypoxic conditions in the Lower St. Lawrence Estuary (LSLE) (Figure 1). The case of the LSLE is particularly intriguing because it is a deep estuary (350 m) but, contrary to general understanding, previous studies have attributed a predominant sediment oxygen demand over pelagic in contributing to hypoxia of its bottom waters. [4] Oxygen concentration in the bottom one hundred meters or so of the LSLE (Figure 1) has received considerable research attention since Gilbert et al. [2005] documented its spatial and temporal variability towards hypoxic conditions [Benoit et al., 2006; Thibodeau et al., 2006; Katsev et al., 2007; Gilbert et al., 2007, 2010; Lehmann et al., 2009; Thibodeau et al., 2010a, 2010b; Genovesi et al., 2011; Mucci et al., 2011]. The conceptual model of oxygen depletion pictures an oxic deep (>200 m) water mass of Atlantic origin pumped by an estuarine pressure gradient into the Gulf of St. Lawrence through Cabot Strait and channeled into the LSLE up to the Head of the Laurentian Channel [Gilbert et al., 2005]. At an estimated pace of 1 cm s1 [Gilbert, 2004], this water mass spends about 2 years isolated from the atmosphere in its journey from Cabot Strait to the Head of the Laurentian Channel, a distance of approximately 750 km. During its course landward, oxygen is gradually depleted due to benthic and pelagic respiration and organic matter remineralization that overcomes turbulent oxygenation from oxygen-rich surface layers. Hypoxic conditions, with oxygen concentration [O2] < 62.5 mmol L1, are C08033 1 of 13 C08033 BOURGAULT ET AL.: HYPOXIA IN THE ST. LAWRENCE ESTUARY C08033 Figure 1. Map of the Gulf of St. Lawrence and Lower St. Lawrence Estuary (LSLE). Each numbered square box delimits regions within which oxygen data were extracted from the Ocean Data Management System public database [Fisheries and Oceans Canada, 2011]. Each box is centered around stations 16–25 as defined in Benoit et al. [2006] and Lehmann et al. [2009]. The Head of the Laurentian Channel is at station 25. reached approximately off Baie-Comeau and further landward (Figures 1 and 2). [5] Based on results from a transport and diagenetic numerical model, Benoit et al. [2006] concluded that sediment oxygen demand alone can generate hypoxic bottom waters near the Head of the Laurentian Channel and hypothesized that pelagic respiration has little influence on the oxygen budget. This model-based conclusion was supported, although moderated, by Lehmann et al. [2009] who concluded, based on the analysis of stable isotope ratios of dissolved oxygen, that about two-thirds of oxygen depletion in the 100-m thick bottom layer of the Laurentian Channel occurs from benthic bacterial respiration with the remaining third attributed to the pelagos. [6] To sum up, oxygen depletion in the 100-m thick bottom layer of the LSLE is thought to occur primarily because turbulent oxygenation from overlying layers is small relative to benthic oxygen demand. This poses a paradox. How can the upper source of oxygen from vertical mixing be negligible while turbulent transmission throughout the 100-m thick bottom layer from the benthos be important? Solving this paradox is the main motivation of this paper. [7] To help resolve the paradox it is informative to evaluate the level of turbulent diffusion required to prevent turbulent oxygenation of the 100-m thick bottom layer from overlying layers. It could be argued that it should be such that the diffusive time-scale t d be much greater than the residence time t r of bottom waters. A scaling analysis of a diffusive process leads to the following form for the diffusive time-scale td ≡ Hb2 ; K ð1Þ where Hb is the thickness of the bottom layer subject to oxygen depletion and K is the turbulent diffusivity of dissolved oxygen. The condition on turbulent diffusivity to allow oxygen depletion (i.e. t d ≫ t r) then becomes K≪ Hb2 : tr ð2Þ [8] Taking Hb 102 m and t r = 2 years 108 s as representative of conditions prevailing in the bottom waters of the LSLE gives K ≪ 104 m2 s1. [9] However, this reasoning brings a contradiction with the literature. In their modeling study, Benoit et al. [2006] concluded, inversely, that diffusivity values <104 m2 s1 provided unrealistic results. This contradiction is in fact another way to express the paradox mentioned above. [10] To address this paradox, we carried out idealized numerical simulations, examined historical oxygen profiles and collected turbulence measurements in the Laurentian Channel. The result of this analysis is a new conception on the role of pelagic versus benthic respiration for depleting oxygen and sustaining hypoxic conditions in the deep LSLE. 2. Methods 2.1. Model [11] We take a Lagrangian point of view where the temporal evolution of a water mass traveling from the Gulf and into the LSLE is diagnosed. In this Lagrangian frame of 2 of 13 C08033 BOURGAULT ET AL.: HYPOXIA IN THE ST. LAWRENCE ESTUARY C08033 Figure 2. Mean (2005–2011) dissolved oxygen concentration [O2] and temperature T fields along a transect extending from station 16 in the Gulf to station 25 at the Head of the Laurentian Channel (Figure 1). These fields were interpolated from observations around stations 16 to 25, identified at the top of the figure. The color scale is saturated at 200 mmol L1 to visually highlight changes in bottom layers. For easier intercomparison, model results presented below (Figures 3, 6, and 8) share the same color scale and aspect ratio. The white horizontal line indicates the depth used in some of the model simulations (H = 325 m). reference, the equation adopted here for dissolved oxygen concentration [O2] is ∂½O2 ∂ ∂½O2 ¼ K R; ∂t ∂z ∂z ð3Þ where t is time, z is the vertical axis taken positive downward and R is an oxygen sink due to pelagic community respiration, a term to be detailed later on as needed. For dimensional consistencies the oxygen concentration in equation (3) is expressed in mmol m3 although values in the text and figures will be reported in mmol L1 for easier comparison with the literature. With a change of variable t = x/u, where x is the along-channel spatial coordinate and u the water velocity, this time-dependant Lagrangian approach is equivalent to the steady-state Eulerian approach adopted by Benoit et al. [2006] since the time rate of change term ∂[O2]/∂t in equation 3 becomes an advective term u∂[O2]/∂x. We neglect horizontal diffusion, a term kept in Benoit et al. [2006] but shown to have little impact on their model results compared to vertical diffusion. Vertical pumping from the estuarine circulation is also neglected assuming that the deep water (>200 m) is principally upwelled against the sill at the Head of the Laurentian Channel [Koutitonsky and Bugden, 1991]. Similar approaches were also used by Ingram [1979] and Bugden [1991] to model the properties of intermediate and deep waters. This approach is further supported by the results of Cyr et al. [2011] who showed 3 of 13 BOURGAULT ET AL.: HYPOXIA IN THE ST. LAWRENCE ESTUARY C08033 that the temporal evolution of the cold intermediate layer at station 23 is principally driven by vertical diffusion. This balance likely holds in the deep layer given that the vertical flow must vanish at the bottom. It will be quantitatively shown in section 3 that this equation (3), although simple and based on a number of assumptions (2D flow without topography, vertically-uniform lagrangian velocity, no vertical advection, simple representation of pelagic respiration, etc.) captures sufficiently well the observed variability of dissolved oxygen to open up a discussion that challenges current understanding of hypoxia in the St. Lawrence and deep estuaries. [12] Unless otherwise stated, the seabed boundary condition is K ∂½O2 ¼ Fb ; ∂z z¼zb ð4Þ where zb is bottom depth and Fb is the imposed sediment oxygen demand, expressed in mmol m2 s1 in the equation but reported in the text in mmol cm2 yr1 for easier comparisons with other studies. The value and form of this benthic oxygen flux will be detailed below as needed. At the top boundary, the oxygen concentration is fixed to a constant value (i.e. a Dirichlet boundary condition), as in Benoit et al. [2006]. The influence of this boundary condition will be discussed in the Results section (section 3) where the results of Benoit et al. [2006] are revisited. Depending on simulations, the initial condition is either taken as an idealized or observed oxygen profile representative for station 16 in the middle of the Gulf (Figure 1). [13] The vertical domain varies between simulations. In revisiting the results of Benoit et al. [2006], two vertical domains are examined, one between 200 ≤ z ≤ 300 m, as in Benoit et al. [2006], and a thicker one between 150 ≤ z ≤ 300 m for a sensitivity analysis. All other simulations use a vertical domain between 0 ≤ z ≤ 325 m, that is the average maximum depth along the Laurentian Channel in the LSLE. The simulation period is set to t r = 2.2 years that is the average residence time for a water parcel traveling the 700 km separating station 16 from station 25 at the Head of the Laurentian Channel at u = 1 cm s1. This velocity, and therefore the residence time used here, was determined by Gilbert [2004] by calculating the maximum lagged correlation of temperature time series (1952–2003) between different regions of the gulf at depth 250 m. This value represents a long-term average and is about twice as fast as determined before by Bugden [1991]. Very little is known about the variability of the deep circulation of the gulf. Results sensitivity to the residence time will be examined. [14] Equation (3) is solved numerically with an explicit forward-in-time, centered-in-space scheme on a vertical grid size Dz = 1 m and time step Dt = 600 s. Results are negligibly sensitive to finer vertical or temporal resolutions. Doubling the grid size resolution to 1/2 m while quadrupling the time step resolution to 600/4 s leads to less than 0.1% difference. 2.2. Oxygen Data [15] Dissolved oxygen data were extracted from the Ocean Data Management System public database [Fisheries and Oceans Canada, 2011]. All data found in the database between year 2005 and 2011 within a square box of side C08033 roughly the width of the Laurentian Channel and centered on stations 16 to 25, except station 23 (Figure 1), were extracted and grouped together per station. Station 23 is visited weekly by scientists from the Maurice Lamontagne Institute since 1993 as part of a monitoring program and oxygen data started to be collected there systematically since 2005. Oxygen data at this station were obtained at the station and not within a boxed region. Those stations were chosen because they have been routinely visited in previous sampling campaigns [e.g., Benoit et al., 2006; Lehmann et al., 2009]. On average, 59 profiles were extracted per station. Station 23 contains the highest number of profiles (n = 157) while station 25 contains the least number (n = 10). Data obtained through this database were collected with Sea-Bird Electronics SBE 43 oxygen sensors. These sensors were routinely calibrated against bottled seawater samples by Winkler titration. [16] Statistics such as means, 95% confidence intervals on means and 95% spread of the data were computed for each station. Confidence intervals on means were obtained by performing 500 bootstrap replicates of the sampling set [Efron and Gong, 1983]. For statistical robustness, the model and analysis presented below rely on 7-year averages rather than examining a single year. 2.3. Turbulence Data [17] Turbulence measurements were collected at station 23 as well as along a cross-shore transect extending off Rimouski over a three-year period (summers 2009–2011) with two shear microstructure profilers VMP-500 manufactured by Rockland Scientific International (RSI). Those profilers are equipped with Sea-Bird Electronics sensors for fine-scale (1 dm) measurements of temperature T and salinity and RSI sensors for micro-scale (1 cm) vertical shear measurements ∂u′/∂z. See Cyr et al. [2011, Figure 8] for a sample profile of some of these quantities at station 23. [18] Of the 1558 profiles collected to date, 892 are presented in Cyr et al. [2011] in a study of the erosion of the cold intermediate layer. The remaining 666 profiles were collected in summer 2011 and are used here to complement the Cyr et al. [2011] data set. Of all 813 profiles collected to date at station 23, 797 were sampled down to 150–180 m and only 4 throughout the entire water column, down to 330 m, where we let the profiler hit the bottom. Those four profiles were collected consecutively, within about a two hour period. We therefore have little statistical confidence in the turbulence within the bottom boundary layer at the deepest point of the Laurentian Channel. However, Cyr et al. [2011] obtained 150 profiles through the bottom boundary layer in depths varying between 20 and 140 m at stations along a crosschannel transect extending off Rimouski. Turbulence within the bottom boundary layer will be determined principally from those measurements. [19] The methodology for inferring eddy mass diffusivity from microstructure shear measurements is well established and detailed in Cyr et al. [2011, and references therein]. Briefly, for well-developed, steady-state and isotropic turbulence, typical of coastal oceanographic conditions, the eddy diffusivity is calculated from the microstructure shear measurements as [Osborn, 1980] 4 of 13 K¼G ; N2 ð5Þ BOURGAULT ET AL.: HYPOXIA IN THE ST. LAWRENCE ESTUARY C08033 where G = 0.2 is the dissipation flux coefficient, N is the background buoyancy frequency, ¼ 15 ∂u′ 2 ; n 2 ∂z ð6Þ is the dissipation rate of turbulent kinetic energy and n is the molecular viscosity. The overbar is taken here as a 5-m average which matches the typical vertical resolution used in 3D numerical models of the Gulf [e.g., Smith et al., 2006]. In practice, the averaging is carried out in the spectral space to remove instrumental noise. It is assumed here that dissolved oxygen diffusivity equals mass diffusivity in a turbulent flow. As with the oxygen data, confidence intervals on means were obtained by performing 500 bootstrap replicates of the sampling set. [20] As suggested by Cyr et al. [ 2011], the effective eddy diffusivity Ke in a cross-shore transect going through station 23 is thought to be a combination of interior mixing and mixing processes operating near lateral boundaries where the water intersects the sloping bottom and where the turbulence may be orders of magnitude higher. Cyr et al. [2011] showed that the net effect of boundary mixing at this cross-section is to increase the effective interior diffusivity by a factor of 1.8. Taking this into account, the effective eddy diffusivity considered in this study is Ke ¼ 1:8K; demand until hypoxic conditions are reached near the bottom of the Head of the Laurentian Channel. [23] Benoit et al. [2006] justified using a Dirichlet condition at the top model boundary based on the observation that the oxygen concentration at this level in summer 2003 did not vary much along its path from the Gulf to the Head of the Laurentian Channel (see their Figure 2). This is also approximately seen in the 7-year mean (our Figure 2). This approach would be justified as long as criterion (2) would be respected. Otherwise, turbulent diffusion from overlying well-oxygenated layers could oxygenate the 100-m thick bottom layer. However, this possibility is greatly limited if the oxygen concentration is fixed at the top boundary, an aspect illustrated below with the next simulation. [24] In this second simulation, we test the sensitivity of the model results to the top boundary condition by extending the domain thickness by 50 m upward. The initial condition is adjusted to take into account the oxygen profile observed between 150 and 200 m in summer 2003 from Benoit et al. [2006]. For simplicity, the initial oxygen profile above 200 m is idealized as a linear increase, from 120 mmol L1 at 200 m to 220 mmol L1 at 150 m, as inferred visually from the field observations presented in Figure 2 in Benoit et al. [2006]. Mathematically, this is (in mmol L1) ½O2 ðz; t ¼ 0Þ ¼ ð7Þ where K is the interior diffusivity measured at station 23. 3. Results 3.1. Benthic Respiration Only: Benoit et al. [2006] Revisited [21] As a test case, our model was first configured as in Benoit et al. [2006] for their high carbon flux scenario, a case where their model reproduced hypoxic conditions near the Head of the Laurentian Channel (their Figures 9b and 9d). For this simulation, the integration domain lies between 200 ≤ z ≤ 300 m, that is the thickness Hb = 100 m of what is generally considered to be the bottom waters of the LSLE. The initial condition is set to [O2](z, t = 0) = 120 mmol L1, which is equivalent to the seaward boundary condition imposed by Benoit et al. [2006] in their Eulerian reference frame. This vertically-uniform initial condition is an idealization of the oxygen profile observed between 200–300 m at station 16 in July 2003 [see Benoit et al., 2006, Figure 2]. The top boundary condition is fixed at [O2](z = 200 m, t) = 120 mmol L1. The sediment oxygen demand, or benthic oxygen flux Fb, along the Laurentian Channel is taken from Figure 9b in Benoit et al. [2006] that we digitized (Figure 3, top). The eddy diffusivity is set to K = 1.0 104 m2 s1 and pelagic respiration is R = 0. Note that this simulation violates equation (2), to which we refer as criterion (2), since K 104 m2 s1 is comparable to H2b/t r (100 m)2/ 108 s = 104 m2 s1. [22] The resulting oxygen spatial field for this simulation is almost identical to that of Benoit et al. [2006] (compare Figure 3a with their Figure 9b). Oxygen is gradually depleted in the water column due only to sediment oxygen C08033 2z þ 520 120 for 150 ≤ z < 200 m for 200 ≤ z ≤ 300 m: ð8Þ [25] The top boundary condition of this simulation is [O2] (z = 200 m, t) = 220 mmol L1. Eddy diffusivity is as in the previous simulation, set to K = 1.0 104 m2 s1. The thickness of the layer subject to hypoxia is still Hb = 100 m and criterion (2) still not satisfied. [26] This second configuration is therefore a little more realistic than the previous simulation and should in principle provide better agreement with observations. However, the resulting oxygen spatial field is completely different (compare Figure 3b with 3a). The 100-m thick bottom layer is oxygenated, due to turbulent oxygenation from layers above 200 m, and hypoxic conditions are not reached. The results thus depend on model depth and top boundary condition. [27] A third simulation was carried out with the same configuration as the previous one except that the diffusivity is decreased to K = 1.0 105 m2 s1 in order to satisfy criterion (2). This time oxygen is depleted in the 50-m or so above the bottom with hypoxic, and even anoxic, conditions reached at the Head of the Laurentian Channel (Figure 3c). The shape of the oxygen profile at the head of the channel is unrealistic and concentrations are too low. Although this third simulation produces unrealistic results, it illustrates the importance of respecting condition (2). Here we see that since the condition is respected the oxygen concentration at level 200-m is little affected. This is a situation where, if simplification is required, setting a Dirichlet boundary condition at 200 m would be justified. [28] As already noticed in Benoit et al. [2006], low diffusivity produces unrealistically low oxygen concentration in a too thin bottom layer. On the other hand, high diffusivity induces too much turbulent oxygenation from overlying layers, as demonstrated here. The apparent ability of the Benoit et al. [2006] model to reproduce realistic hypoxic 5 of 13 C08033 BOURGAULT ET AL.: HYPOXIA IN THE ST. LAWRENCE ESTUARY C08033 Figure 3. Model results for the spatial field of oxygen concentration [O2](mmol L1) for three different model configurations (Figures 3a, 3b, and 3c) but forced with the same sediment oxygen demand Fb (top panel) and no pelagic respiration R = 0. Each sub-panel to the right shows the seaward (x = 700 km, dotted line) and landward (x = 0, solid line) oxygen concentration profiles. The origin of the x-axis corresponds to station 25 at the Head of the Laurentian Channel (see Figure 1). The sediment oxygen demand Fb of the top panel was digitized from Figure 9 in Benoit et al. [2006]. (a) As in Benoit et al. [2006] with diffusivity K = 1.0 104 m2 s1. This figure is to be compared with Figure 9b in Benoit et al. [2006]. (b) As in Figure 3a but with the domain extended up by 50 m and using a seaward boundary oxygen profile between 150–200 m idealized from the field observations for July 2003 reported in Benoit et al. [2006]. K = 1.0 104 m2 s1. (c) Same as Figure 3b but with K = 1.0 105 m2 s1. For easier intercomparison, each panel a, b and c shares the same color scale and aspect ratio as Figures 2, 6, and 8. Numbers on top refer to sampling stations (Figure 1). conditions using high diffusivity is attributed to a model implementation and top boundary condition inconsistent with criterion (2) and field observations. We conclude from these exercises that it is not possible to reproduce realistic oxygen field and hypoxic conditions in a 100 m thick bottom layer with only a sediment oxygen demand, neither using low (105 m2 s1) or high (104 m2 s1) constant diffusivity. This conclusion provided a motivation to examine in greater details deep turbulent diffusion and pelagic oxygen demand as detailed in the following sections. below 275 m where only 4 profiles were collected. Within the bottom boundary layer, eddy diffusivity increases exponentially on average (Figure 5). Values reached at the bottom are approximately one order of magnitude higher than above the boundary layer. [31] Taking the bottom boundary layer into consideration, the following parameterization is proposed for the effective diffusivity affecting oxygen depletion in the bottom waters of the LSLE 3.2. Eddy Diffusivity and Turbulent Oxygenation [29] It was argued in the Introduction that the vertical diffusivity in the bottom waters of the LSLE should be ≪104 m2 s1 to sustain oxygen depletion. We now provide a more accurate estimation of the eddy diffusivity before proceeding with refined simulations. [30] The profile of the mean effective eddy diffusivity measured at station 23, below 100 m, is shown in Figure 4b. The depth-averaged diffusivity, between 100 m and 275 m, is K e ¼ ð2 1Þ 105 m2 s1. This mean excludes values where H is the total water depth, Kb = (4 2) 104 m2 s1 is the eddy diffusivity at the sea bed and d = 3 1 m is a scale height, both determined from a best fit to observations in the bottom boundary layer (Figure 5). K e ¼ ð2 1Þ 105 m2 s1 is the deep pelagic eddy diffusivity discussed above. The tilde is used to distinguish this parameterization from the actual observations. The effect of the boundary layer, i.e. the second term in equation (9), on near-bottom oxygen profiles will be presented in the following section. ~ e ðzÞ ¼ K e þ Kb exp½ðz H Þ=d ; K 6 of 13 ð9Þ C08033 BOURGAULT ET AL.: HYPOXIA IN THE ST. LAWRENCE ESTUARY C08033 Figure 4. (gray shades) Confidence intervals (95%) on deep (>100 m) mean profiles of oxygen concentration [O2], effective eddy diffusivity Ke and turbulent oxygen fluxes Fp at station 23, off Rimouski (gray shades). Turbulent oxygenation of the bottom layers through a surface located at 100 m above the bottom, i.e. here at 230 m depth, is highlighted in the third panel with the dashed lines as visual aids. The oxygen turbulent flux through this surface is Fp = (4 1) 101 mmol cm2 yr1 (see text for details). The solid line in the second panel is the effective eddy diffusivity parameterization defined by equation (9). [32] Diffusivity and oxygen observations at station 23 (Figure 4) can be combined to provide the pelagic turbulent oxygenation defined as Fp ¼ Ke ∂½O2 : ∂z ð10Þ [33] The maximum downward flux is observed around 100 m with Fp 102 mmol cm2 yr1 and decreases approximately exponentially with depth (Figure 4c). Close to bottom the uncertainty is large because only 4 turbulence profiles sampled to the bottom. At 100 m above the bottom, i.e. a standard height for comparison with other studies [e.g., Lehmann et al., 2009], the flux is Fp = (4 1) 101 mmol cm2 yr1. 3.3. Benthic and Pelagic Respiration as in Lehmann et al. [2009] [34] Using the parameterization for the deep turbulent effective diffusivity developed above (equation (9)), we now proceed with simulations that include both benthic and pelagic respiration as inferred by Lehmann et al. [2009]. [35] For these simulations, the model depth is set to H = 325 m which corresponds to the average maximum depth of the LSLE (see white horizontal line in Figure 2). The initial condition is taken as the mean oxygen profile at station 16 (Figures 2 and 6, right). [36] A Dirichlet boundary condition set to [O2](z = 0 m, t) = 300 mmol L1 is applied at the sea surface. Bottom waters properties, below 100 m depth, are insensitive to this choice since the diffusion time scale, with K e 105 m2 s1, required to propagate the surface signal below 100 m depth is much longer than the 2.2. year simulation period. Figure 5. The bottom boundary layer in the LSLE represented with 1-m scale effective eddy diffusivity Ke as a function of height above bottom (hab). Light gray profiles were collected in depths varying between 20 and 140 m by Cyr et al. [2011]. The thin black lines are the four profiles that hit the deepest point of the estuary (330 m) at station 23. The darker gray shade is the 95% confidence interval on the trimmed mean (5% removed each side) and the dashed~ e ). line is the least-square best fit of equation (9) (K 7 of 13 C08033 BOURGAULT ET AL.: HYPOXIA IN THE ST. LAWRENCE ESTUARY C08033 Figure 6. Modeled oxygen concentration field [O2](mmol L1) with sediment oxygen demand and pelagic respiration rates as in Lehmann et al. [2009]. The right panel shows the seaward (x = 700 km, dotted line) and landward (x = 0, solid line) concentration profiles. (top) Simulations using the eddy diffusivity parameterization defined by equation (9) with an exponential increase through the bottom boundary layer. (bottom) Same as the top panel but using a constant eddy diffusivity throughout the bottom boundary layer i.e. K ¼ K e . Numbers on top refer to sampling stations (Figure 1). [37] The sediment oxygen demand in the LSLE, i.e. at times when the Lagrangian water mass reaches station 20 and further landward to station 25, is set to Fb ¼ 354 mmol cm 2 1 yr ; ¼ 0: R¼ ð11Þ as inferred by Lehmann et al. [2009]. The eddy diffusivity is ~ e. parameterized as in equation (9), i.e. K = K [38] In the deeper Gulf (stations 16 to 20), where depth reaches 400 m, the boundary condition at the deepest cell (z = 325 m) is set to ∂ ∂½O2 K ∂z ∂z [40] The pelagic community respiration rate is included in the bottom 100-m only and is set to ð12Þ z¼325m [39] This boundary condition is introduced because there is no indication in the oxygen field at 325 m in the Gulf that would suggest direct influences of bottom oxygen demand at that level. If this were the case the oxygen concentration would decrease with depth below 325 m whereas observations show the opposite (Figure 2). Also, throughout the Gulf section the exponential dependance of the eddy diffusivity (see equation (9)) is removed by setting K ¼ K e since the deepest cell lies far above the bottom boundary layer. 0:0196 mmol cm3 yr1 0 for H z ≤ 100 m otherwise ð13Þ again as inferred by Lehmann et al. [2009]. [41] The result of this model is a significant improvement over the previous model (Figures 6, top, and 7). In particular, the form of the near-bottom oxygen resembles much more closely the observations. However, hypoxic conditions are not reached. Minimum concentration at the bottom of station 25 are 100 mmol L1. [42] A large part of the improvement is due to the exponential form of the eddy diffusivity in the bottom boundary layer landward of station 20. To show this, a simulation was carried out by removing the bottom boundary layer parameterization, i.e. with a constant diffusivity K ¼ K e throughout the water column (equivalent to setting Kb = 0 in equation (9)). This simulation leads to too severe hypoxia 30 mmol L1 near the Head of the LSLE (Figure 6, bottom). Furthermore, the shape of the near-bottom oxygen profile is unrealistic compared to field observations (Figure 7). This highlights the importance of using a realistic representation of turbulent processes throughout the bottom boundary layer of scale height d (equation (9)). 8 of 13 C08033 BOURGAULT ET AL.: HYPOXIA IN THE ST. LAWRENCE ESTUARY C08033 Figure 7. Comparison at three stations in the LSLE between observations (gray shades) and model results of oxygen concentration in the deep layers (>100 m). The darker shades are the 95% confidence intervals on means and the lighter shades are the 2.5%–97.5% percentiles spread of the data (statistics made on years 2005–2011). The dashed lines are the results from the simulation that uses sediment oxygen demand and pelagic respiration rates as in Lehmann et al. [2009] and the eddy parameterization defined by equation (9). The misfit is e = 49% (see text for details on misfit definition). The dashed-dotted lines are simulations using a constant eddy diffusivity throughout the bottom boundary layer, i.e. Kb = 0 in equation (9). The solid lines are the results from the simulation that uses a temperature-dependant pelagic respiration rate and sediment oxygen demand inferred from inverse modeling and the parameterization defined by equation (9). The misfit is e = 14%. The vertical dashed line highlights the threshold for hypoxia. [43] The model-observations overall misfit for the simulation that includes the exponential boundary layer diffusivity is evaluated as 25 ~ 1X O 2 i ½O2 i e¼ ; n i¼21 ½O2 16 ½O2 i ð14Þ where ½O2i and ½Õ2i are, respectively, the observations and model result at station i, the overbar is the average of the data available below 100 m depth and n = 5 is the number of stations in the LSLE. This quantifies the ability of the model to reproduce oxygen concentration relative to the observed difference between station 16 and i. The misfit for this simulation is e = 49%. 3.4. An Arrhenius Model for Pelagic Respiration [44] Based on the temperature dependance of chemical reactions proposed by Arrhenius [Logan, 1982], Genovesi et al. [2011] suggested that the 2 C warming of the deep waters of the LSLE over the last century may have contributed between 10–32% to oxygen depletion by increasing organisms metabolism and bacterial respiration rates. Inspecting the temperature field along the Laurentian Channel shows comparable longitudinal and vertical temperature change in bottom waters (Figure 2). This leads us to consider a temperature-dependent, Arrhenius parameterization for pelagic respiration rate. [45] In the following simulation, we test the following Arrhenius model for pelagic respiration rate R ¼ R0 eT0 =ðT Tf Þ ; ð15Þ where R0 is a reference respiration rate, T0 a temperature scale, both to be determined with the procedure described next, and Tf = 1.9 C the freezing point of seawater of salinity 34.5 taken as the temperature below which pelagic oxygen consumption is negligible. The temperature T represents the 2005–2011 observed mean (Figure 2). [46] This time, the coefficients R0 and T0 in equation (15), as well as the sediment oxygen demand Fb and pelagic diffusivity K e , are not imposed a priori but are determined by inverse modeling, or data assimilation. This provides a robust statistical mean to evaluate those parameters while objectively scanning the parameter space. The other two coefficients used in the diffusivity parameterization defined by equation (9), i.e., the bottom diffusivity Kb and scale height d, are fixed but results sensitivity is diagnosed by taking into account the uncertainties of those parameters. Letting Kb and d as free parameters led the search algorithm to converge towards unrealistic values. [47] These four coefficients (R0, T0, Kb, K e) are determined by minimizing the following least-square cost function, 9 of 13 C¼ k 2 25 X 2 X ~ 2 ½O2 i ; O i i¼21 k1 ð16Þ BOURGAULT ET AL.: HYPOXIA IN THE ST. LAWRENCE ESTUARY C08033 C08033 Figure 8. Same as Figure 6 but for the simulation with a temperature-dependent pelagic respiration rate and sediment oxygen demand inferred from inverse modeling. Numbers on top refer to sampling stations (Figure 1). where i is the station number, k1 the index of the cell located at z = 100 m, k2 the index of the maximum depth at which data are available for a given station i and, [Õ2] and [O2] are, respectively, the modeled and observed oxygen concentrations. The depth z = 100 m for k1 is chosen as the depth below which oxygen is unaffected from direct exchange with the atmosphere associated with the winter mixed layer depth [Galbraith, 2006]. The minimization is performed using the Nelder-Mead method [Nelder and Mead, 1965]. All other parameters and boundary conditions are set as in the previous simulation. [48] The algorithm returned the following values: K e ¼ ð2:40 0:02Þ 105 m2 s1, R0 = 0.0920 0.0006 mmol cm3 yr1, T0 = 5.42 0.03 C and Fb = 203 100 mmol cm2 yr1. [49] Each of these values is realistic. The eddy diffusivity K e returned by the algorithm is within the uncertainty of direct measurements at station 23 (see equation (9)). The sediment oxygen demand Fb returned is within the range of values reported in the literature [Benoit et al., 2006; Katsev et al., 2007]. When combined into the Q10 number, which is commonly used to express metabolic rates [e.g. Genovesi et al., 2011], the coefficients R0 and T0 give Q10 ¼ RðT0 þ 10 CÞ ¼ 1:5; RðT0 Þ ð17Þ which is within the range reported in the literature (see Genovesi et al. [2011] for a review). [50] The result of this simulation is a significant improvement relative to the previous simulation with misfit e = 14% compared to e = 49% (Figures 7 and 8). The oxygen profile near the bottom resembles the observed profiles and hypoxic conditions are reached at station 25. [51] The simulation above was carried out for a period of 2.2 years, which corresponds to the average residence time for a water parcel traveling the 700 km separating station 16 to station 25 at the Head of the Laurentian Channel at u = 1 cm s1 [Gilbert, 2004]. However, previous estimates suggested a residence time twice as long [Bugden, 1991]. To test the sensitivity of the results to the residence time we carried out a simulation by doubling the residence time. The model converged to the same oxygen field as the previous simulation with identical misfit e = 14%. The returned diffusivity and reference pelagic respiration were twice as low with K e = 1.2 105 m2 s1 and R0 = 0.046 mmol cm3 yr1. However, the reference temperature T0 and sediment oxygen demand Fb returned were identical to the previous simulation. This is to be kept in mind, but the rest of the discussion presented below will be based on the results carried out with the 2.2 years residence time for easier comparisons with previous studies that have adopted this value for analysis [e.g., Lehmann et al., 2009]. [52] The spatial pattern of the inferred pelagic community respiration rate R is presented in Figure 9 for the 2.2 years simulation (values could simply be divided by two for the 4.4. years simulation). For easier comparison with Lehmann et al. [2009], values are expressed in nmol L1 d1. Values between 50–100 m are comparable to the 33 6 nmol L1 d1 reported by Lehmann et al. [2009] for station 23, but 3–4 times higher in deep waters, with values reaching 120 nmol L1 d1. This difference is at the heart of the results obtained here: our study requires much higher pelagic respiration than inferred before to explain hypoxia in the LSLE. This contradiction does not necessarily call into question the measurements published by Lehmann et al. [2009] but rather that pelagic bio-chemical processes at station 23 may not be representative of pelagic processes occurring throughout the Gulf and LSLE. This point will be further discussed below supported with observations suggesting important differences between pelagic processes occurring in the Gulf and the LSLE. [53] Note that the pelagic respiration model defined by equation (15) has no depth-dependance. Such a depthdependance could be expected due to the power-law decrease of organic matter fluxes [Buesseler et al., 2007]. There is some visual indications of depth-dependant oxygen depletion rate in the Gulf region (between station 16 and 17) but not so much in the LSLE (Figure 2). To test whether this could improve model results, the following form of pelagic respiration was implemented, ( R¼ if z < z0 R0 eT0 =ðT Tf Þ R0 ðz=z0 Þb eT0 =ðTTf Þ otherwise ð18Þ where z0 = 150 m is a reference depth and b an attenuation coefficient [Buesseler et al., 2007] to be determined by 10 of 13 BOURGAULT ET AL.: HYPOXIA IN THE ST. LAWRENCE ESTUARY C08033 C08033 Figure 9. Pelagic respiration R = f(T) (see equation (15)) inferred from the inverse model and calculated with the temperature observations of Figure 2. Numbers on top refer to sampling stations (Figure 1). minimization. Over the depth range and region simulated here, this depth-dependant form of pelagic respiration did not provide any improvement over the simpler depth-invariant form (equation (15)). The minimization algorithm returned a value close to 0 for the attenuation coefficient b which led the model to converge towards the same solution as the previous simulation. 3.5. The Oxygen Budget [54] The relative importance of pelagic versus benthic oxygen demand in producing hypoxic conditions in the 100-m thick bottom layer of the LSLE is now evaluated by examining the modeled oxygen budget. The budget is expressed as, B ¼ F p F b F R; ð19Þ where Fp ¼ 1 L Z L Fp ðz ¼ 225 mÞ dx ð20Þ 0 is the average turbulent oxygenation from overlying layers, where L = 700 km is the distance separating stations 16 and 25, Fb ¼ 1 L Z L Fb dx ð21Þ 0 is the average sediment oxygen demand, keeping in mind that Fb = 0 between stations 16 and 21 for reasons detailed earlier (see text around equation (12)), and, FR ¼ 1 L Z L Z H R dz dx 0 225 m is the depth-integrated pelagic respiration rate. ð22Þ [55] Given the 14% model error in reproducing the oxygen field (see section 3.4), we cautiously provide here the budget to only one significant figure. Once rounded, the calculation gives F p = 4 101 mmol cm2 yr1, F b = 8 101 mmol cm2 yr1, F R = 4 102 mmol cm2 yr1, and B = 5 102 mmol cm2 yr1. [56] Turbulent oxygenation contributes approximately 8% to the budget, consistent with low turbulent fluxes required to maintain hypoxic conditions. However, contrary to previous hypotheses, pelagic oxygen demand is about 5 times larger than benthic oxygen demand. This ratio decreases to about 2.5 for the 4.4 years simulation (see section 3.4 for details on sensitivity results to the simulation period). 4. Discussion 4.1. Caveat [57] The model developed here assumes that a steady-state exists in the upstream boundary condition. However, deep Cabot Strait waters feeding the estuarine circulation have become colder (and richer in dissolved oxygen) between 2003 and 2009 at a rate of 0.12 C yr1 (from Table 17 in Galbraith et al. [2011]). This change can be treated as an additional flux that can be compared to the terms of the budget formulation (equation (19)). Gilbert et al. [2005] estimated the change in dissolved oxygen associated with changing water masses to have an upper bound of 24.4 mmol L1 C1. Thus, the upper bound for this advective water mass anomaly flux is (24.4 mmol L1 C1) (0.12 C y1) = 2.9 mmol L1 yr1, which integrated over the bottom 100 m of the water column corresponds to Fwm = 3 101 mmol cm2 yr1. This does not affect our budget balance since it is one order of magnitude smaller than the main term. [58] Benoit et al. [2006] raised the idea that sediment oxygen demand taking place along the sloped flanks of the 11 of 13 C08033 BOURGAULT ET AL.: HYPOXIA IN THE ST. LAWRENCE ESTUARY Figure 10. Mean observed (solid) and simulated (dashed) bottom waters (225–325 m) dissolved oxygen concentration. The gray shade highlights the LSLE. Numbers on top refer to sampling stations (Figure 1). Laurentian Channel may represent an additional sink to the laterally-averaged budget. Such a localized benthic oxygen demand operating throughout the depth of the bottom waters, if important, could indeed be confused with pelagic oxygen demand if the deep waters within the Laurentian Channel were laterally well-mixed. The fraction f of the total channel width affected by sediment oxygen demand taking place along the sloped flanks can be evaluated as f = (2Hsod/s)/L, where Hsod is the thickness over which sediment oxygen demand is significantly felt, L is the width of the Laurentian Channel in the Gulf, s is the slope of the sides of the channel and the factor 2 is to take into account the effect of both sides (see Cyr et al. [2011] for a similar geometric calculation). Taking Hsod ≈ 2 101 m as a maximum value (see, for example, Figure 3c), L ≈ 5 104 m and s ≈ 0.03 gives f = 3%. This calculation suggests that the net contribution from sediment oxygen demand at sloped sidewalls is small relative to the total channel width. 4.2. Benthic Versus Pelagic Respiration [59] The model presented here captures reasonably well the average oxygen depletion occurring along the bottom waters of the Laurentian Channel, from the Gulf to the Head of the Laurentian Channel (Figures 7 and 8). However, the model does not capture the spatial details of this depletion. This is best seen in examining the modeled and observed along-channel oxygen concentration averaged between 225 m and 325 m depth (Figure 10). The largest observed depletion rate occurs in the deep Gulf section and steadily decreases towards the LSLE. The depletion rate in the Gulf, near station 16, is at least 2 times larger than at the mouth of the LSLE, near station 21. Within the LSLE there is in fact little depletion and even some signs of oxygenation towards the Head, presumably due to enhanced turbulent diffusion near the sill [Forrester, 1974; Ingram, 1983; Saucier and Chassé, 2000]. This spatial variability in the depletion rates can also be seen from the interpolated oxygen field (Figure 2) where horizontal gradients in bottom waters (between 225– 325 m) are significantly greater in the Gulf region than within the LSLE. This fact alone suggests that the low oxygen concentration observed throughout the bottom layers of the LSLE is principally the result of pelagic processes that took place months before in the Gulf region. C08033 [60] The predominance of pelagic over benthic oxygen sink discussed above is further supported by the oxygen field that exhibits a minimum around 250 m in the Gulf between stations 16 and 20 (Figure 2). This minimum would be drawn to the bottom if benthic respiration were principally responsible for the depletion at that level in the Gulf. Within the LSLE (Figure 2, stations 21–25), the minimum sits indeed at the bottom which possibly reflects the direct effect of sediment oxygen demand there, although it could also be a coincidence of the raising sea floor that approximately coincides with the depth of the oxygen minimum found in the Gulf. Regardless, as presented above, the deep water mass that scrubs the bottom of the LSLE had already been largely depleted in oxygen within the Gulf. [61] Our analysis suggests that pelagic community respiration in deep waters (>150 m, Figure 9) is 3–4 times higher than pelagic bacterial respiration reported by Lehmann et al. [2009] for station 23. As presented above, there are indications in the mean oxygen field alone of larger depletion rate in the Gulf than in the LSLE, an aspect not captured by our model. Our model likely overestimates pelagic community respiration in the LSLE, and underestimates it in the Gulf (again suggested by Figure 10). Therefore, the difference between Lehmann et al.’s [2009] measurements for station 23 and our inferred rate, meant to be representative of the mean conditions along the entire transect, may indicate that bio-chemical processes occurring at station 23 are not representative of pelagic processes occurring throughout the Gulf and LSLE. This calls for more research on bio-chemical processes in the Gulf section. [62] As for turbulent diffusivity, the fact that the model results converge to an average diffusivity comparable to that observed at station 23 suggests little differences between the deep turbulent field in the Gulf and the LSLE. If this is verified with direct turbulence observations, yet to be collected in the Gulf, it would further support the hypothesis that pelagic oxygen demand in the Gulf is greater than in the LSLE. 5. Conclusions [63] The following paradox appears in the literature on hypoxia in the LSLE: Both high and low turbulent diffusivity are implicitly invoked to explain hypoxia when sediment oxygen demand is assumed to be the primary sink. On the one hand, sufficiently high diffusion is required to deplete the 100-m thick bottom layer while, on the other hand, low diffusion is required to prevent turbulent oxygenation from overlying layers. This paradox partly arose from the apparent ability of the Benoit et al. [2006] model to reproduce realistic hypoxic conditions in the bottom waters of the LSLE with exclusively a sediment oxygen demand and constant high turbulent diffusivity K. It is demonstrated here that the Benoit et al. [2006] model reproduced realistic conditions due to the implementation of a top boundary condition and domain depth inconsistent with the high value used for K. The consequence of the inconsistency is to greatly limit turbulent oxygenation from overlying layers. When the inconsistency is removed, it is further shown that realistic hypoxic conditions throughout the 100-m thick bottom layer cannot be reproduced with sediment oxygen demand alone, neither using high or low diffusion. However, when pelagic respiration is 12 of 13 C08033 BOURGAULT ET AL.: HYPOXIA IN THE ST. LAWRENCE ESTUARY incorporated in the model as an exponential function of water temperature along with a parameterization of turbulent diffusivity based on field observations, realistic hypoxic conditions are reproduced. [64] Overall, the results of the analysis presented here, based on inspection of historical oxygen profiles, new in situ turbulence measurements and idealized simulations, suggest that pelagic oxygen consumption is the dominant oxygen sink responsible for hypoxia in the 100-m thick bottom waters of the deep Estuary and Gulf of St. Lawrence, with benthic oxygen demand playing a necessary but secondary role. There are to date very few studies that have addressed pelagic oxygen demand in the Estuary and Gulf of St. Lawrence. In the light of the results presented here new research efforts towards studying pelagic respiration are called for in order to foresee the future of dissolved oxygen in the St. Lawrence system and the impact on the marine ecosystem. [65] Acknowledgments. This research was funded by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, the Canada Foundation for Innovation, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, the Fonds de RechercheNature et Technologies Québec and is a contribution to the scientific program of Québec-Océan. We would like to thank the external reviewers as well as the Editor for their constructive criticism on a previous version of the manuscript. 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