Better Results for Citizens:
Strategy, Planning & Implementation
Dr Roger Waite
Project Manager, Pathfinder Project; NZ Treasury
http://io.ssc.govt.nz/pathfinder
1 July 2003
Outcomes: A Way of Walking
“Would you tell me, please, which way I ought to walk
from here?” asked Alice of the Cheshire Cat.
“That depends a good deal on where you want to get to”
said the Cat.
“I don't much care where” said Alice.
“Then it doesn't matter which way you walk” said the Cat.
“--so long as I get somewhere” Alice added as an
explanation.
“Oh, you're sure to do that” said the Cat, “if you only walk
long enough!”
Map of Presentation
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Making strategic choices: macro & micro
Continuous improvement models
Interventions: planning for performance
Demonstrating value
Building a better future: management & culture
“From not really knowing … to reasonable confidence” (J. Mayne)
“It is better to roughly right, than perfectly ignorant” (H. Hatry)
Why Focus on Outcomes?
One Reason … Three Threads
1. Outcomes – by definition – matter to
New Zealanders
2. Value to citizens, residents, people
3. Taonga – what the public treasures
Goal: Strengthen outcome-focussed, evidence-based
governance, at all levels of Government
Why Pathfinder ?
Review of the Centre
(ROC)
Managing for
Outcomes
(SOI / MfO)
STRATEGY,
CAPABILITY,
PERFORMANCE
Value-forMoney
(VfM)
PATHFINDER
TRADE-OFFS,
TRANSFERS
DECISION MAKING SYSTEMS; TOOLBOX;
CAPABILITY DEVELOPMENT
Build NZ Capability to Deliver Results - at
Programme, Agency, Sector and ‘Joined Up’ Levels
Pathfinder’s Raison D’etre
After 10+ yrs, output funding has delivered
Quantum gains requires modified approach
Keep what works (output focus), but …
Complete public sector management model
Link outcomes (through outputs) to inputs
Meet requirements of legislation, parliament, etc
Ensure we deliver to citizens, taxpayers, people
Develop capability & management approach
Using Evidence to Improve Outcomes
1. Strategy, Policy & Planning
 Strategy links outcomes to actions & resources
 Build mgmt systems (not measurement systems)
 Five step continuous improvement model
 Robust intervention design & monitoring systems
2. Managing Interventions
 Using performance data in case mgmt systems
 Faster course correction during implementation
 Improve information on likely impact vs. cost
Accentuate the positive - Eliminate the negative
- - - - Mary Poppins School of Management - - - -
Who Makes Strategic Choices?
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The Minister or Ministers?
The Boss of Bosses?
General Managers?
Managers?
Planners & Policy Wonks?
Delivery Staff?
Business Analysts & Evaluators?
Good operators should - in their areas of responsibility
We also influence strategic choices made around us
Organisational Models
Management
level
LV
L IV
L III
L II
LI
DirectorGeneral
General
Managers
Conservators,
some Head
Office & Regional
Office Managers
Area Managers,
TSM, CRM, BSM …
Programme Managers
Rangers, Business Service
Officers …
What they are
accountable for
What they
deliver
Strategy
development
Value
Systemic
improvement
Managing for
Outcomes
Sustaining
performance
Integrated outputs
& services
Optimising output
delivery
Outputs
Managing projects
& completing
tasks
Stratified Systems Theory - Jacques
Projects/Tasks
Source: Department of Conservation, NZ
Pathfinder’s Building Blocks
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Strategic Planning
Living documents:
Summary & guidance on
State Indicators
http://io.ssc.govt.nz/pathfinder
Intervention Logic
Impact Assessment
Optimising the Intervention Mix
Benchmarking
Operational Decision-making
Working Across Agencies
Use Building Blocks to Build Management Systems
STRATEGIC PLANNING & CAPABILITY
Core Outcomes
of Agency
Defined
Management
Applications
State
Indicators
Strategic
Priorities &
Planning
Impact
Measures
Benchmarking
& Best Practice
Risk-based
Targeting
Tools
Maximising
Benefits from
Intervention Mix
Linked Outcome
Measures
Business
Process Design
After a business model used by the Department of Corrections
Strategic Decision Making
in an MfO Envionment
AKA - “The Five
Step Continuous
Improvement Model”
Driver fatalities per 100 million km
0
40-44
Age of driver
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
3
45-49
4
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
Where are we?
Where do we go?
5
? FOCUS AREAS ?
1989/90
1997/98
2
1
Strategic Decision Making
in an MfO Envionment
AKA - “The Five
Step Continuous
Improvement Model”
How Do We Get There?
(Linking Outcomes to Funding Decisions)
End/Final Outcomes
Intermediate Outcomes
IO
Immediate Results
IR
Outputs
O2 O3 O4
Activities A2
Inputs
I2
Etc
A3
A4
Etc
I3
I4
Etc
Logic models provide a structured
tool for working through an
agencies intervention choices:
 Which outcomes matter most
 Value of intervention options
 Define agency output mix
 ID poorly aligned effort / $$$
Individual interventions:
 Clarify objectives / design
 Identify & manage risk
 Gauge success
Planning for Performance
Policy … Design … Planning for Feedback … then Action
Plan
(where do we want to go?)
Measures
Reports
(how will we know when
we get there?)
(did we reach our goal?)
Activities
(to implement the plan)
The Policy Management Cycle: After Heather Daynard,
Prospect Management Enterprises Inc, Canada
Strategic Decision Making
in an MfO Envionment
AKA - “The Five
Step Continuous
Improvement Model”
Influence Diagrams
Map problem chain (cause, effect & influences)
Logic Models
Intervention design, ‘theory of impact’, risk
management & performance monitoring
Logical Policy, Design & Monitoring
Outputs
Of integrity & right quantity …
Coverage
Reaching intended areas & people …
Near-term
Results
Intermediate
Outcomes
End
Outcomes
Affect knowledge & behaviours …
Generate significant change …
To improve the lives of our people
One Grand Hypothesis
if …
breaks into …
OUTPUT
then
if …
IMMEDIATE
IMPACT
if …
then
INTERMEDIATE
OUTCOME
then
Three or more Mini-hypotheses
END
OUTCOME
(some of which can be tested)
From: Karen Baehler, Victoria
University of Wellington
Managing Performance
Outputs … Coverage … Outcomes … Decision cycles
VALUE TO
THE NATION
HIGH
RELATIVE MAGNITUDE
Measurement
Challenges
Time Delays
Measurement
Costs
LINKAGE TO
OUR ACTIONS
LOW
QUANTITY
NEAR-TERM INTERMEDIATE
COVERAGE
& QUALITY
RESULTS
OUTCOMES
OUTPUTS
OUTCOMES
AGENCY END
OUTCOMES
Matching Measures to Uses
Long-Term Near-Term
Outcomes Results
Outputs
External Use
Accountability to
Political Level
Program Advocacy
Budget Review
Public Communication
Internal Use
Strategic Planning
Program Evaluation
Operational Planning
and Control
PerformanceAppraisal
NZ
NZ
NZ
NZ
Adapted by Heather Daynard & Roger Waite
from: John R. Allen, Management Consultant
Measurability & Control
HIGH
Descriptive Statistics
(planning information)
Ideal
Performance
Measures
Few Outcome
Measures Available
or Required
Output Measures,
Proxies, Predictors
(include with caveats)
Degree of
Measurability
of Outcomes
LOW
LOW
Degree of Control
/Accountability
HIGH
From: Performance-Based Management at Forest Renewal BC
Building a Better Future
Focus effort … Demonstrate results … Learn & re-orientate
Where are we?
(Did we get there?)
Where do we want to go?
Measure State
Indicators
ID Major Areas
for Change
(& Goals)
Continuous
Improvement
Assess
Outputs &
Impact
How did we do?
ID Options;
Deliver 'Best'
Interventions
How do we get there?
• Manage cycles of change
– not one-off gains
• Improve state indicators &
targeting of effort
• Up-front policy / design –
w. focus on monitoring
• Building evidence-base
• Cultivation & weeding:
making hard decisions
‘New’ Intervention Paradigms
Policy staff / intervention designers responsibilities:
[a] Specify coherent intervention approach; & also
[b] Designing systems to monitor key results
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Changing the world (not just recipients of services)
Careful specification of problem chain
Balancing ‘what works’ vs. innovation
Ex ante design: outputs & getting performance info
Ex post analysis & redesign of interventions
Reallocation of resources
Organisation & Culture
Accentuating the Positive
 Accept responsibility for achieving outcomes
 Renew intellectual capacity & agency creativity
 Integrated set of initiatives – backed by evidence
(add new initiatives to build on momentum / gains)
 Analytical rigour / honesty, not mgmt. paraphernalia
 Reduce real complexity to ‘workable dimensions’
 Active risk-taking, not passive risk avoidance
 Build sector-wide knowledge, people, teams
Eliminating the negative
From Tony Bliss, LTSA (NZ) & World Bank
Senior Management
Accentuating the Positive
 Strong leadership - Ambitious vision & targets
 Understanding output-outcome links & the limits of
performance; set direction to surpass those limits
(limits set by institutional & production frontiers)
 Fund portfolio of investments & near-term outputs
 Backing evidence, esp. vs. conventional wisdom
 Managing productive multi-agency partnerships,
coordinated at senior levels (often CEO to CEO)
Systems that Build on Positive Results –
and Eliminate the Negative
From Tony Bliss, LTSA (NZ) & World Bank
Better Results for Citizens:
Strategy, Planning & Implementation
Dr Roger Waite
Project Manager, Pathfinder Project; NZ Treasury
http://io.ssc.govt.nz/pathfinder
1 July 2003