Making sense of energy in a
chaotic environment
by Chris Yelland CEng
www.ee.co.za
Outline
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Economic and social landscape
Financial risks and issues
Power generation landscape
Chaotic planning, and the chaotic future outlook
Grid defection and the utility death spiral
Critical success factors in an uncertain world
Business continuity in a chaotic electricity environment
Energy crisis? What crisis?
Opportunities unlimited
Economic and social landscape
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Low GDP growth
Weakening currency
Low productivity
Low competitiveness
High levels of poverty
Labour unrest
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Rising population
Increased urbanisation
Poor education
Skills deficit
High unemployment
Poor service delivery
Financial issues and risks
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Uncertainty
Rates of exchange
Interest rates
Oil and gas prices
Changing structure of SA economy
Reduced energy intensity in SA
Supply and demand forecasts and planning
Timing (economic, commodity cycle)
Power generation landscape
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Over dependence on coal as primary energy source
Over dependence on Eskom as the dominant monopoly
supplier
Aging fleet of coal-fired power stations
Time and cost over-runs on new mega power plants
Rising electricity prices and declining electricity demand
Shortages and surpluses of generation capacity
Eskom financial and environmental sustainability
problems
Chaotic planning
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No published Integrated Energy Plan (IEP)
No published Gas Utilisation Master Plan (GUMP)
Outdated Integrated Resource Plan for Electricity
IRP2010-2030
Massive cost and time overruns at Medupi, Kusile
and Ingula
Poor maintenance planning
Under-supply and over-capacity
The chaotic future outlook
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An uncertain world with an unpredictable future
Inability to forecast electricity demand for even 5
years ahead, let alone 20, 30, 50 or 100 years
Disruptive technologies
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Solar PV
Energy storage
Electric vehicles
Smart grid
ICT and Apps
Price uncertainty and the learning curve
Critical success factors in an
uncertain world
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From central planning to market driven
From public sector utilities to private sector
From monopolistic to competitive
From mega-projects to smaller projects
From central to distributed generation
From inflexible to flexible
From slow dinosaurs to nimble adapters
From the fossil age to the knowledge economy
Evolution and survival of the fittest
Grid defection and the utility
death spiral
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Rising utility electricity prices
Declining electricity demand
The electricity supply cake get smaller
Rising utility electricity prices
Grid defection
The utility share of the cake gets smaller
Rising utility electricity prices
More grid defection…
Commercial Cactus Farming in
South Africa
UHURU:
TO
55 MWE
ZeroBIOMASS
Emission Cost
Effective
Energy Supply
ELECTRICITY
UHURU Process – Fermentable BioMass to Energy
Fermentable
BioMass
BioGas
Digester
Compress
BioGas
20 MWe +
Energy crisis? What crisis?
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So do we have an energy crisis in South Africa?
We are rich in natural energy…
We are rich in human energy…
We have a youthful population with lots of unfulfilled
potential…
We do NOT have an energy crisis, we have a
management crisis!
Opportunity unlimited!