Sven Willner
[email protected]
h�p://www.pik-potsdam.de/~willner
A model framework for evalua�ng damage propaga�on under
different economic decision ra�onales - an example of river floods
Willner SN, O�o C, Wenz L, Dobler AD, Frieler KF, Levermann A
Potsdam Ins�tute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
3. Agents
1. Introduc�on
Risks of extreme weather events like floods are likely
to increase under global warming [1]
World markets are highly interlinked: Extremes
in one place may have repercussions elsewhere
These economic interac�ons should be taken into
account for cost management and cost es�ma�on
We present the dynamic damage propaga�on model
Acclimate: On a daily basis it explores the immediate
response dynamics of the supply network
4a. Purchase ra�onale
4b. Produc�on ra�onale
2. Approach
Precipita�on and river runoff model
e.g. LPJmL + GFDL-ESM2M
price
price
River runoff projec�ons
share
River rou�ng model
CaMa-Flood [2]
costs
value
revenue
max.
High resolu�on water
depth and inunda�on
Damage func�on
Direct rela�ve produc�on loss is:
aggregated flood area frac�on
(weighted by popula�on)
over all grid cells in each region
where:
flood depth exceeds 10 year return level
(Direct) produc�on
losses
quant.
5. First runs
6. Outlook
Acclimate allows for a qualita�ve understanding of
damage propaga�on
Indirect losses
Economic damage propaga�on model
Acclimate [3], [4]
Direct losses
Result: Total produc�on losses
Economic pressure to adapt in a global, structural
manner
Next: Evalua�on of different physical (RCP)
and socio-economic (SSP) scenarios
Inclusion of dynamic rewiring strategies of network
connec�ons to assess adapta�on measures
days
Global direct vs indirect losses due to floods in 2001
(popula�on and economic network of 2001).
References
The research was supported by the German Environmental Founda�on (DBU)
and the Heinrich-Boll Founda�on.
It has received funding from the European Union Seventh Framework
Programme FP7/2007–2013 under Grant Agreement No. 603864.
[1] Hirabayashi Y, Mahendran R, Koirala S, et al. (2013). Nat. Clim. Chang. 3(9).
[2] Yamazaki D, Kanae S, Kim H, Oki T (2011). Water Resour. Res 47.
[3] Bierkandt R, Wenz L, Willner SN, Levermann A (2014). Env. Syst. Decis. 34.
[4] Wenz L, Willner SN, Bierkandt R, Levermann A (2014). Env. Syst. Decis. 34.