Ghana Election Watch - May 2016
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Ghana Election Watch – May 2016
Ghana will hold general elections on 7 November 2016 to determine the next President and
the make-up of the country’s 275-seat legislature. In this note, we explore some of the key themes around
election campaigning, while future reporting will focus on the likely conduct and outcome of the polls.
As with previous recent elections in Ghana, we believe
the 2016 vote is set to be another hotly-contested race
with the result resting on a knife edge at this stage.
The ruling National Democratic Congress (NDC) and
opposition New Patriotic Party (NPP) have dominated
national politics since the transition from military rule
in 1992. During this era, Ghana has emerged as one of
the most vibrant democracies in West Africa, witnessing
both strong political competition and several peaceful
transitions of power.
Nevertheless, electoral politics can still be a volatile game
and the stakes have never been higher in the upcoming
vote, with the country’s economy in a state of prolonged
turmoil. President John Mahama and the ruling NDC will
undoubtedly seek to make use of their incumbency to
stifle the opposition challenge, exploiting the rumbling
factional divisions within the NPP fold. But poor economic
management and headwinds in the global economy
have contributed to a weakening currency, growing fiscal
deficit, and rising debt and inflation. These conditions are
acutely felt by the electorate, contributing to simmering
socio-economic discontent which could play into the
hands of the opposition NPP.
With the competition so tight, ultimately a lot will boil
down to how each party campaigns. Although some parts
of the country witness rigid voting along ethno-regional
lines, Ghana has proven in the past that there is a small but
influential proportion of swing voters who can carry the
result in either party’s direction. Consequently, whichever
party manages to overcome internal differences, manage
negative media coverage and run a vibrant and unified
campaign, is likely to emerge the victor.
Upper East
Upper West
Ghana 2012 Presidential Election
Northern
70.88%
Brong-Ahafo
47.33%
45.53%
Western
Volta
Ashanti
Eastern
80-90% Mahama
60-70% Mahama
GT Accra
Central
46.92%
39.11%
Ashanti
51.49%
Brong Ahafo
52.12%
Central
56.91%
28.35%
42.03%
52.31%
58.23%
Eastern
Greater Accra
Northern
29.29%
66.43%
Upper East
29.26%
65.54%
Upper West
12.93%
Volta
85.47%
43.8%
54.42%
Western
50-60% Mahama
50-60% Akufo-Addo
70-80% Akufo-Addo
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Ghana Election Watch - May 2016
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Party positioning
The NDC
Amid a worsening economic situation
which has drawn attention to
shortfalls in public administration,
the ruling NDC has faced rising
internal dissent. As a sign of this
malady, NDC founder Jerry Rawlings
and some senior party members have publicly criticised
the current party leadership, openly accusing some of
corruption. Meanwhile, Rawlings’ wife Nana Konadu
Agyeman-Rawlings who is another prominent party
power-broker has defected to form her own party,
the National Democratic Party (NDP).
Despite these internal divisions, the NDC has managed
the fallout reasonably well, while maintaining a fairly loyal
support base at its grass roots particularly in its strongholds
in the three northern regions and the Volta region.
And importantly, even with his mixed track record in office,
President Mahama has maintained a broadly positive public
image as an affable statesman managing the challenges
posed by tough external economic conditions. He also
has the extra advantage of a parliamentary majority with
the NDC still holding 151 out of 275 available seats in the
legislature, and greater visibility and influence at the local
government level.
The NPP
The NPP’s presidential candidate Nana Akufo-Addo contested both the 2008 and 2012 elections,
losing to both John Atta Mills and John Mahama respectively. But he is by no means a lame duck
in the upcoming contest as a respected figure with a strong and loyal following in the Ashanti and
Eastern regions, while still making inroads in many other parts of the country.
Following a narrow defeat in the 2012 vote, he and his party challenged the outcome, claiming
electoral fraud. But unlike in some countries where such a challenge might trigger instability, it
is noteworthy that in Ghana the issue was pursued through the courts where it attracted significant public interest.
Ultimately, after eight months of legal wrangling, the NPP’s case was thrown out and Mahama confirmed as the rightful
President. Nevertheless, this sets an interesting precedent for 2016 should the NPP again be thwarted in its electoral
ambitions, potentially prompting a more vocal – and volatile – challenge to the result.
In the last two years, the NPP has also faced its own internal battles. This came to a head with the murder of the
party’s regional chairman, allegedly by the brother of the party’s national chairman in May 2015. As a result of this
incident and perceived efforts to try and undermine Akufo-Addo’s leadership, the national chairman, general secretary
and vice chairman of the party were then suspended by the executive council resulting in ongoing court battles. These
internal divisions will likely have a significant impact on the NPP’s ability to put up a concerted challenge to the NDC’s
incumbency, particularly if they are mishandled in the coming months.
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Key themes
The main themes that will define the conduct and outcome of Ghana’s election in November are the economy, security
and corruption.
Economy
Security
Having attained lower
middle-income
status
in 2010, Ghana became
hailed as a shining African
economic success story.
This followed several years
of steady economic growth and a rebasing of
the country’s GDP fundamentals. However,
since the slide in global commodity prices
began in 2013, bringing with it other impacts
on currency strengths and global capital
flows, Ghana has suffered severe economic
challenges, which have in turn exposed
shortfalls in domestic economic management
and public administration more broadly.
Electoral cycles can often play into pre-existing
violent local conflicts over competition for
land and resources and Ghana is no exception
to this rule. Northern Ghana in particular has
witnessed a number of inter-communal clashes
in recent months, while party primaries also
saw several small-scale incidents. Large-scale unrest or instability
appears unlikely in the Ghanaian context. But businesses operating
in remote areas or in some of the main cities where political unrest
tends to flare up most commonly will certainly need to keep a close
monitor on local dynamics.
Worsening fiscal and budgetary deficits
have resulted from lower-than-anticipated
revenues and stubbornly high spending,
largely on public salaries, energy subsidies
and debt servicing. Meanwhile, the rapid
depreciation of the local cedi currency has
exacerbated the government’s plight, adding
to the debt burden. An IMF bailout package in
2014 was conditional on much-needed public
sector reform initiatives to reduce the cost of
government. Although the country has since
made some progress in stabilizing the cedi and
addressing challenges in the power sector,
the electoral cycle risks fueling a further wave
of reckless spending with negative long-term
economic consequences.
These conditions have also impacted on the
real economy, affecting jobs and prices. Rising
socio-economic hardships will undoubtedly
play into political campaigning and provide
a potential trigger for unrest around the
poll. However, even against this economic
backdrop, the NPP will need to run a vibrant
and unified campaign if it is to rally the support
of swing voters, who form a relatively small
but influential segment of the population.
Ghana has also been on high alert following recent terrorist attacks
in the sub-region by transnational Islamist militants. Notably, the
country has been forced to put counter-terrorism measures in
place following the recent terrorist attacks in Côte d’Ivoire, Mali
and Burkina Faso. Amidst a growing climate of fear in some parts,
security – and the capacity of government to keep its citizens
safe – is likely to be one of the key factors determining how
Ghanaians vote. In this respect, neither party has yet made a clear
policy stance, though the NDC’s decision to accept a number of
Guantanamo prison detainees has irked some voters.
Corruption
Corruption is perhaps the most talked about
issue in Ghanaian politics today. Several highprofile corruption scandals have hit the current
government, lifting the lid on an issue which
has remained more under the radar than in
many neighbouring West African states in
recent years. Internal denunciations within the NDC highlight the
extent to which this has become a critical campaign issue.
Corruption scandals implicating members of the NDC government
have sorely undermined the party’s standing, presenting an
opportunity for the NPP to exploit in its campaigning. For example,
one of the latest graft scandals relating to the branding of public
transport buses is alleged to have direct links to the President’s
office. This is being heavily used by the NPP in its anti-government
rhetoric in the elections lead-up. While we have not seen the same
level of popular mobilization and vocal campaigning on the issue
as happened during the opposition’s landmark electoral victory in
Nigeria last year, this is certainly likely to be an issue which rises in
prominence in the coming months.
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Elections outlook
The 2012 election saw the NDC’s John Mahama
secure 50.7% of the vote against 47.7% in favor of
Nana Akufo-Addo. The 2016 election result currently
hangs in the balance but is expected to be equally if not
more competitive. The effectiveness of electoral campaign
strategies will be critical, as will the ability of each party to
avoid becoming bogged down in internal wrangling, which
has formed a prominent feature of the political landscape
in the last few years.
As is typical for an election year, we anticipate levels of
investment and growth to slow in the third quarter amid
the distractions posed by the elections process. Regardless
of the elections conduct and outcome, a continued push
for greater local participation in various sectors of the
economy is likely. The NPP believes that empowering
businesses will be key to driving the economy in an efficient
manner. Accordingly, a win for the party could potentially
bring positive impacts for business with greater incentives
for private sector investment. Furthermore, the NPP is
likely to push for an easier approach to accessing business
loans to help grow local businesses in particular. The party’s
vice presidential candidate who formerly worked as the
deputy governor of the Central Bank is expected to follow
through with promises of a more effective harmonization
between the monetary and fiscal policies of the country,
as well as implementing measures to check the increasing
interest rate spread.
A win for the NDC on the other hand will see a continued
focus on infrastructural development through public
investments and Public Private Partnerships (PPPs).
The party believes that an enabling business environment
is created through the provision of the required
The Electoral Commission
In June 2015 Charlotte Osei was appointed
to succeed Dr. Kwadwo Afari-Gyan who had
supervised elections in the country since 1992.
Major opposition parties have questioned the
Electoral Commission’s (EC) preparedness for this
year’s election. With less than six months to go to
the polls, the opposition political parties feel the
EC is under-performing. The main organizational
challenges relate to:
• Cleaning the Voter Register
• Education and voter sensitization
• Redeeming the EC’s credibility as a neutral
arbiter after the fallout from the last election.
infrastructure such as road networks, hospitals, schools,
water and energy development. Additionally, a renewed
focus on increasing regional trade is expected if the NDC
is re-elected. As President of the ECOWAS Commission,
Mahama has pushed for the removal of bottlenecks to
regional trade, and this will also be an area of continued
focus were he to be re-elected. This has already included
new rules around visas for Africans seeking to come to
Ghana, and reforms to immigration systems and transport
infrastructure.
Our next note will look at the likely conduct and outcome of
the vote, and break down in greater detail the implications
for business.
Contact
Roddy Barclay
Head of Intelligence and Analysis
[email protected]
Asantewa Donkor
Ghana Consultant
[email protected]
Kwesi Koomson
Ghana Consultant
[email protected]
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