Yield gaps of maize: why are they important and how
does IMAGINE address them
Martin van Ittersum, Michiel van Dijk, Pytrik Reidsma, Roel Jongeneel
and other members of project team
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, April 27, 2017
Pictures taken by: João
Outline
 Can sub-Saharan Africa and Ethiopia feed itself?
 Developments and Policies in Ethiopia
 The IMAGINE project
 The IMAGINE Yield gap framework
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Martin van Ittersum, Lenny van Bussel – Plant Production Systems group
Patricio Grassini, Ken Cassman – University of Nebraska-Lincoln
GYGA team, including ten country agronomists from SSA
Can sub-Saharan Africa feed itself?
and Ethiopa?
Martin van Ittersum, Lenny van Bussel – Plant Production Systems group
Patricio Grassini, Ken Cassman – University of Nebraska-Lincoln
Samuel Adjei-Nsiah - IITA, Kindie Tesfaye – CIMMYT
GYGA team, including ten country agronomists from SSA
Van Ittersum et al., 2016. PNAS
Current self-sufficiency ratios cereals - 2010
Source: FAOstat
Current self-sufficiency cereals SSA - 2010
Source: IMPACT model
Growth in population 2050
From 0.45 to 1.2 billion (2.6 times)
Growth in population and cereal demand - 2050
A factor 3.4 increase!
How to increase cereal production
 Increase on existing agricultural land
 Irrigation and multiple crops per year
 Expansion of agricultural land
Production-ecological principles & practice
Limiting factors
•water
•nutrients
(N,P,K)
yield
increasing
measures
potential
production
Reducing factors
•weeds
•pests
•diseases
•pollutants
yield
protecting
measures
limited
production
yield gap
Defining factors
•CO2
•radiation
•temperature
•crop genetics
yield level
Breeding
and bioTechnology
actual
production
PRODUCTION SITUATION
Van Ittersum and Rabbinge, 1997
Slide: Harrie Lovenstein
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Yield gaps
Photo: Ken Gillerr
Global Yield Gap Atlas
With University of Nebraska,
ICRISAT, AfricaRice, CIMMYT
and many regional and
national partners
 Major food crops in the world
 Global protocol with local
application
 Local data and evaluation
 Strong agronomic foundation
www.yieldgap.org

Co-financed by Bill and
Melinda Gates Foundation
www.yieldgap.org
www.yieldgap.org
Cereal self-sufficiency - 2050
Cereal self-sufficiency - 2050
Ethiopia
 Agriculture production has recorded a remarkable growth
between 2004 and 2014, on average by 7.6 percent per
year (Bachewe et al., 2015)
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www.yieldgap.org
Actual maize yields in Ethiopia
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Required increase maize yields - Ethiopia
18
Policy context Ethiopia (general)
 Ethiopia has set an ambitious growth and transformation
plan GTPII (2015-2020) with focus on poverty reduction
and growing the agricultural sector
● Agriculture recognized as a main pillar
● Development activities undertaken by the
smallholder farmers and pastoralists
● Gradual shift in emphasis towards high value crops
and livestock production
● complemented by the establishment of a market
system that benefits farmers and non-farm rural
actors
● Expanding the development of small and medium
scale agro based manufacturing enterprises
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Policy context Ethiopia (crop production)
 Within GTP there are currently several mega programs
including: 1) Agricultural Growth Program (AGP), 2)
Sustainable Land Management Project (SLMP), 3) Food
Security Program (FSP), and 4) the Pastoral Community
Development Project (PCDP).
 Focus on improving the production and productivity of
the sector to enhance domestic agricultural production
 Research and extension:
● Nine regional agricultural research institutes with a
total of some 69 research centers under them.
● Concerted government spending in extension has also
established nearly 10,000 Farmer Training Centers
(FTCs) and trained over 63,000 Development Agents
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Farm level issues Ethiopia
 Ethiopia has a market-oriented policy approach
● No policy measures that creates financial incentives
(e.g. price support or input price subsidies)
● No direct financial services (credit)
● But enhancing access to market information
● Provision of extension services
● Gvt participation in seed and fertilizer markets
● Border measure policies (duties and exemptions)
 Farm management optimization and strengthening the
agronomic knowledge base and its application are crucial
to achieve the growth targets
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Research questions IMAGINE
 What is a scientifically sound and applicable generic
framework linking agronomic, socio-economic,
institutional, infrastructural and policy factors, explaining
maize yield gaps in SSA?
 What are the main biophysical and farm and crop
management factors that help to explain yield gaps in
Ethiopia and Ghana?
 What are the main infrastructural, institutional,
socio-economic and policy factors that explain farm
and crop management and consequently yield gaps?
 Which policies and farm management options are
key for increasing yield performance in Ethiopia and
Ghana?
Design of IMAGINE
-
Methodology development
-
Based on:
- National surveys
- Local surveys
- Ethiopia: Adami Tulu, Bako Tibe
- Demonstration experiments
- Ethiopia: Adami Tulu, Bako Tibe
Regional and national analyses in Ethiopia and
Ghana
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Five different yield levels to benchmark farmer performance
Yield (tons/ha)
Biophysical maximum production
level (climate, CO2, water)
Water-limited.
potential
yield
Best-practice + no economic
constraints on inputs
Feasible yield
Economic yield
Technical
efficient yield
Actual yield
Yield
gap
Best-practice + profitmaximizing
Best-practice
Observed yield at the plot
Sliva et al., 2017
Van Dijk et al., 2017
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Policies to close the yield gap(s)
Main causes
Yield (tons/ha)
Potential yield
Technology
Yield gap
Feasible yield
Economic yield
Yield
gap
Economic
Yield gap
• Agricultural innovation
• Investment in applied
system and broader
agricultural research and
institutional, technological,
development programs
economic and social factors
• Transaction and
transportation costs
• Investment in rural roads
• Policies to decrease
transaction costs
Allocative
Yield gap
• Credit & insurance
• Knowledge and financial
constraints, risk issues and • Expand agro-dealer networks
• Support market information
information asymmetries
• Land tenure systems
• Smart input subsidies
Technical
efficiency
yield gap
• Suboptimal crop
management caused by
knowledge, skills and
information gaps.
Technical
efficient yield
Policies
• Improve extension services
• Stimulate knowledge transfer
from best practice to average
farmers
Actual yield
Sliva et al., 2017
Van Dijk et al., 2017
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Thank you for your attention
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