90 FAITH & ECONOMICS :SHWWLKI`[OL0U]PZPISL/HUK!;OL7HUPJVM *DU\%*RUWRQ2[IRUG2[IRUG8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV,6%1 Reviewed by John Lunn, Hope College KH UHFHQW HFRQRPLF DQG ÀQDQFLDO FULVLV VSDZQHG QXPHURXV VFKRODUO\ DQG SRSXODU ERRNV *DU\ *RUWRQ·V ERRN LV RQH RI WKH best contributions among the scholarly books. Unlike many other VFKRODUO\ZRUNVDQGDOPRVWDOORIWKHSRSXODUZRUNV*RUWRQGRHVQRWVHHN WRDVVLJQEODPHWRLQGLYLGXDOVVRPXFKDVWRÀQGZKDWOHGWRWKHFULVLVDQG ZKDWFDQEHGRQHWRLPSURYHWKLQJVLQWKHIXWXUH+HDOVRGRHVQRWDGGUHVV issues like the global savings glut cited by Federal Reserve System Chair %HQ%HUQDQNHRU WKHORZLQWHUHVWUDWHSROLF\RI WKH)HG IRU PRVWRI WKH SUHYLRXVGHFDGH,QVWHDGKHDUJXHVWKDWWKHÀQDQFLDOFULVLVZDVD´UXQRQ EDQNVµH[FHSWQRWWKHW\SHRIUXQRQEDQNVSHRSOHWKLQNRIIURPWKH*UHDW Depression. Gorton looks at the shadow banking system that developed in recent decades and compares what happened in the recent crisis to panics IURPHDUOLHULQWKHQDWLRQ·VKLVWRU\+HGHVFULEHVWKHUHFHQWFULVLVDVWKH 3DQLFRI In his introduction, Gorton claims that he was in a unique position WR REVHUYH WKH HYHQWV DURXQG WKH 3DQLF RI +LV UHVHDUFK IRFXVHG RQ EDQNLQJ DQG ÀQDQFLDO FULVHV DQG EDQNLQJ SDQLFV DQG LQFOXGHG WKH FRPSOHWLRQ RI RQH RI WKH IHZ HFRQRPHWULF VWXG\ RI SDQLFV +H DOVR FRQVXOWHGIRU$,*)LQDQFLDO3URGXFWVDQGZRUNHGRQGHULYDWLYHV%HFDXVH RIKLVEDFNJURXQGKHZDVLQYLWHGWRSUHVHQWDSDSHUDWWKH-DFNVRQ+ROH &RQIHUHQFHVSRQVRUHGE\WKH.DQVDV&LW\)HGHUDO5HVHUYH%DQNLQ$XJXVW DQGDQRWKHUSDSHUDWWKH-HN\OO,VODQGFRQIHUHQFHVSRQVRUHGE\WKH )HGHUDO5HVHUYH%DQNRI$WODQWDLQ0D\7KHVHSDSHUVPDNHXSD VL]HDEOHSRUWLRQRIWKHERRN $IWHU DQ LQWURGXFWRU\ FKDSWHU LQ ZKLFK KH RXWOLQHV KLV DUJXPHQWV Gorton provides the two papers mentioned above, although in reverse RUGHU &KDSWHU FRQWDLQV WKH SDSHU SUHVHQWHG DW -HN\OO ,VODQG LQ DQGWKH-DFNVRQ+ROHSDSHULVGLYLGHGEHWZHHQFKDSWHUVDQG&KDSWHU LVDSDSHURULJLQDOO\SXEOLVKHGLQRQWKHHYROXWLRQRIWKHVKDGRZ EDQNLQJV\VWHP7KHÀQDOFKDSWHULVQHZPDWHULDODQGDGGUHVVHGWRWKRVH ZKRPLJKWUHDGKLVZRUNDFHQWXU\IURPQRZLQ,QSDUW*RUWRQLV WU\LQJWRGRFXPHQWDQGH[SODLQWKHKLVWRU\RIWKHUHFHQWFULVLVLQOLJKWRI SDVWSDQLFVIRUIXWXUHJHQHUDWLRQV *RUWRQVD\VWKDWKHKRSHVWRFRQYLQFHWKHUHDGHUWKDWWKH3DQLFRI T 91 LVQRWYHU\GLIIHUHQWIURPSUHYLRXVSDQLFVVXFKDVWKH3DQLFRI$Q LPSRUWDQWGLIIHUHQFHLVWKDWWKH3DQLFRIZDVPRUHYLVLEOHZKLOHWKH 3DQLFRILQYROYHGPDUNHWVPRVWSHRSOHKDYHQHYHUKHDUGRI,QERWK FDVHVWKHUHZDVDEDQNUXQEXWDJDLQWKHUXQVZHUHGLIIHUHQWLQLPSRUWDQW ways. Previous bank runs involved people trying to pull their money out RIEDQNVLQEDGWLPHVZLWKWKHUHVXOWWKDWWKHEDQNVFRXOGQRWFRYHUDOORI the withdrawal requests. The recent run involved banks and corporations SXOOLQJIXQGVRXWRIRWKHUEDQNV Gorton argues that the shadow banking system that developed over VHYHUDO GHFDGHV ´LV LQ IDFW JHQXLQH EDQNLQJ DQG LW WXUQV RXW ZDV YXOQHUDEOHWRWKHVDPHNLQGRIEDQNUXQVDVLQSUHYLRXV86KLVWRU\µS /DUJH ÀUPV DQG LQVWLWXWLRQDO LQYHVWRUV KDYH D GHPDQG IRU D SODFH WR SXW WKHLU IXQGV ZKHQ WKH\ GR QRW ZDQW WR PDNH ORQJWHUP LQYHVWPHQWV Traditional checking or savings accounts are inadequate because they are not insured. But they want something similar to a checking account: VRPHWKLQJWKDWSURYLGHVVDIHW\DQGHDV\DFFHVVWRWKHIXQGV7KHGHPDQG has been met in the repurchase market, or repo market. /DUJHÀUPVDQGLQVWLWXWLRQDOLQYHVWRUV´GHSRVLWµIXQGVRYHUQLJKWZLWKD EDQNDQGUHFHLYHERQGVRIHTXDOYDOXHDVFROODWHUDO,QWKHPLGVWKHVH ERQGV ZHUH RIWHQ FUHDWHG WKURXJK VHFXULWL]DWLRQ 7KH ÀUP FDQ NHHS WKH IXQGVLQWKHEDQNWKHQH[WHYHQLQJRUZLWKGUDZWKHIXQGVE\QRWUHQHZLQJ the transaction. The bond received can be used as collateral in some other WUDQVDFWLRQVDVZHOO7KHUHSRPDUNHWSURYLGHVVDIHW\HDV\DFFHVVWRIXQGV and reusing the collateral, called rehypothecation, is similar to writing a check. *RUWRQGLVWLQJXLVKHVEHWZHHQFROODWHUDOWKDWLVLQIRUPDWLRQLQVHQVLWLYH IURPFROODWHUDOWKDWLVLQIRUPDWLRQVHQVLWLYH+HDUJXHVWKDWDPDMRUIXQFWLRQ RIEDQNVLVWRFUHDWHLQIRUPDWLRQLQVHQVLWLYHGHEWVXFKDVGHPDQGGHSRVLWV ZKLFKDUHVKRUWWHUPXVHGIRUWUDQVDFWLRQVDQGLQVXUHGE\WKHJRYHUQPHQW 1RSDUW\WRDWUDQVDFWLRQQHHGVWREHFRQFHUQHGDERXWWKHYDOXHRIDFKHFN )RUWKHVKDGRZEDQNLQJV\VWHPWRFDUU\RQWKLVUROHRIDEDQNWKHUHPXVW EHLQIRUPDWLRQLQVHQVLWLYHFROODWHUDOFUHDWHG6HFXULWL]DWLRQSURYLGHGWKLV mechanism. $QLPSRUWDQWFRQWULEXWLRQRI*RUWRQ·VERRNLVWRH[SODLQVHFXULWL]DWLRQ well and in a way that shows it is not inherently devious or subject to DGYHUVHVHOHFWLRQ6HFXULWL]DWLRQLQYROYHVDSRRORIFDVKÁRZVWKDWSURYLGH WKHYDOXHRIWKHQHZVHFXULWLHV7KHFDVKÁRZVFDQFRPHIURPOHDVHVFUHGLW card receivables, and insurance receivables, as well as mortgages and auto ORDQV *RUWRQ ZULWHV ´VHQLRU WUDQFKHV RI VHFXULWL]DWLRQV DUH LQIRUPDWLRQ insensitive, though not riskless, like demand deposits. The most senior 92 FAITH & ECONOMICS WUDQFKHV RI VHFXULWL]DWLRQ WUDQVDFWLRQV KDYH QHYHU H[SHULHQFHG GHIDXOWVµ S$QRWKHUKHOSIXOFRUUHFWLRQSURYLGHGE\*RUWRQLQYROYHVVXESULPH PRUWJDJHV7KH\DUHRIWHQGHVFULEHGDVIUDXGXOHQWRUGHFHSWLYHZLWKORZ teaser rates to induce unsuspecting people to take a mortgage they cannot DIIRUG*RUWRQVKRZVWKHORJLFEHKLQGWKHORZLQLWLDOUDWHVZLWKDEDOORRQ SD\PHQWDIWHUWKUHH\HDUVDVDPHFKDQLVPWKDWUHGXFHGWKHULVNWREDQNVRI JUDQWLQJDPRUWJDJHWRVRPHRQHZKRGRHVQRWTXDOLI\E\QRUPDOVWDQGDUGV 7KHDVVHWRIYDOXHZDVWKHKRXVHLWVHOIDQGJLYHQDSSUHFLDWLRQRIKRXVH YDOXHVDWWKHWLPHWKHPRUWJDJHHZRXOGEHDEOHWRUHÀQDQFHDWEHWWHUWHUPV ZKHQWKHEDOORRQSD\PHQWFDPHGXH,IWKHPRUWJDJHHWXUQHGRXWWREHD bad risk, then the banks could not renew the mortgage. Gorton notes that EHWZHHQDQGWKHVXESULPHPRUWJDJHVZRUNHGDVGHVLJQHG 6R ZKDW ZHQW ZURQJ" +RXVLQJ SULFHV EHJDQ WR IDOO DQG WKHUH ZHUH GHIDXOWV %XW WKLV GRHV QRW H[SODLQ ZK\ DVVHW FODVVHV XQUHODWHG WR WKH subprime market should have declined in value. Initially, the impact was RQO\LQWKHDVVHWVPDQXIDFWXUHGIURPVXESULPHPRUWJDJHV7KHVKRFNZDV FRPELQHGZLWKDV\PPHWULFLQIRUPDWLRQDERXWWKHORFDWLRQVDQGVL]HVRI H[SRVXUHWRVXESULPHPRUWJDJHV/LNHGHSRVLWRUVLQSUHYLRXVJHQHUDWLRQV who did not know whether their banks were sound, and went to withdraw WKHLUPRQH\LQEDQNUXQVWKHÀUPVDQGEDQNVXVLQJWKHUHSRPDUNHWGLG QRWNQRZZKLFKDVVHWVXVHGDVFROODWHUDOZHUHDIIHFWHG*RUWRQZULWHVWKDW DPLG LQFUHDVLQJ XQFHUWDLQW\ ´DERXW WKH VROYHQF\ RI FRXQWHUSDUWLHV UHSR GHSRVLWRUVEHFDPHFRQFHUQHGWKDWWKHFROODWHUDOERQGVPLJKWQRWEHOLTXLG LIDOOÀUPVZDQWHGWRKROGFDVK³DÁLJKWWRTXDOLW\³WKHQFROODWHUDOZRXOG KDYHWRGHFOLQHLQSULFHWRÀQGEX\HUV7KLVLVWKHFUXFLDOOLQNEHWZHHQWKH VXESULPHVKRFNDQGRWKHUDVVHWFDWHJRULHVµS Gorton argues that policy responses to the crisis need to be related to the problems that caused the crisis. He claims that the subprime mortgage FULVLVZDVFDXVHGE\LQIRUPDWLRQSUREOHPVDQGE\WKHIDFWWKDWVXESULPH mortgages were dependent on house price appreciation. He continues, ´EHFDXVHVXESULPHPRUWJDJHVDUHÀQDQFHGWKURXJKDFKDLQRIVHFXULWLHV and structures, investors could not easily determine the location and extent RI WKH ULVN ,QIRUPDWLRQ ZDV ORVWµ 7KLV OHG WR WKH GRZQZDUG YDOXDWLRQ RIPDQ\VHFXULWLHVDUXQRQWKHEDQNVLQWKHUHSRPDUNHWDQGDOPRVWD FRPSOHWHVKXWWLQJGRZQRIDFUXFLDOVRXUFHRIFUHGLW *RUWRQGUDZVVHYHUDOFRQFOXVLRQVIURPKLVDQDO\VLVRIWKHFULVLV,ZLOO GLVFXVV D FRXSOH RI WKHP +H QRWHV WKDW WKH FULVLV LOOXVWUDWHV WKH H[WHQW to which the savings-investment process no longer relies so heavily on WUDGLWLRQDOEDQNV+HFLWHV0HUWRQ0LOOHUZKRSRLQWHGRXWWKDWÀQDQFLDO innovation tends to be driven by regulation and taxes. When banking 93 LV UHJXODWHG QRQEDQN ÀQDQFLDO LQVWLWXWLRQV DULVH WR WDNH RQ SURÀWDEOH DFWLYLWLHVDIIHFWHGE\WKHUHJXODWLRQ7KHUHKDVEHHQHQWU\LQWREDQNLQJE\ FRPSHWLWRUV³IRUHLJQEDQNVDQGQRQEDQNV7KHIRUPHUGRQRWSRVHVSHFLDO SUREOHPVZKLOHWKHODWWHUGR7KHDFWLYLWLHVRIFRUSRUDWHOHQGLQJDQGGHSRVLW FDQEHDQGKDYHEHHQXQEXQGOHG7KLVPDNHVGHÀQLQJDEDQNPXFKPRUH GLIÀFXOW3URÀWDEOHDFWLYLWLHVÁRZIURPWKHLQVWLWXWLRQVGHÀQHGDVEDQNVWR WKRVHWKDWDUHQRWGHÀQHGDVEDQNV*RUWRQFODLPVWKDWSULRUWRWKHULVHRI WKHVKDGRZEDQNLQJV\VWHPEDQNVUHIUDLQHGIURPULVNLHUDFWLYLWLHVEHFDXVH they had charters that were valuable because the government restricted HQWU\ LQWR EDQNLQJ :LWK LQFUHDVHG FRPSHWLWLRQ IURP QRQEDQNV WKH charters became less valuable and the banks were willing to take on more risk. Gorton argues that returning to a system where banks had valuable FKDUWHUVWKDWFRXOGEHORVWPD\EHSUHIHUDEOHWRRQHLQZKLFKUHJXODWRUV WU\ WR PRQLWRU DQG FRQWURO WKH DFWLYLWLHV PRUH GLUHFWO\ +LV IXQGDPHQWDO FRQFOXVLRQLVWKDW´WKHEHVWDSSURDFKLVWRGHÀQHDVHWRIDFWLYLWLHVZKLFK FRQVWLWXWH¶EDQNLQJ·DQGWKHQOLPLWWKHVHDFWLYLWLHVWRÀUPVZKLFKUHFHLYH FKDUWHUVµS ,ÀQGPXFKRI*RUWRQ·VDQDO\VLVFRPSHOOLQJ,WOLQNV0DLQ6WUHHWZLWK Wall Street and shows how problems in the real economy, particularly LQWKHKRXVLQJPDUNHWOHGWRWKHSDQLFLQWKHUHSRPDUNHWV,QIRUPDWLRQ problems and misaligned incentives play roles in the narrative. I believe this is more enlightening than seeking out whom to blame. Gorton’s book is not the complete story, however, since the huge increase in housing prices that took place in the years leading up to 2007 is not explained by WKLV QDUUDWLYH 2WKHU ZRUNV VKHG OLJKW RQ WKH HYHQWV IRU H[DPSOH 5DMDQ DQG5HLQKDUWDQG5RJRII 6LQFHWKLVERRNLVDFROOHFWLRQRIDUWLFOHVWKHQDUUDWLYHLVQRWDVFRKHUHQW DVLWFRXOGKDYHEHHQ+RZHYHU*RUWRQGRHVDQLFHMRERILQWURGXFLQJWKH PDWHULDOLQWKHÀUVWFKDSWHU7KLVLVQRWDERRNIRUWKHJHQHUDOSXEOLFDV LWLVIDLUO\WHFKQLFDODWSODFHV7KHGHWDLOVRQWKHZRUNLQJVRIWKHVKDGRZ EDQNLQJV\VWHPWKHFUHDWLRQRIDVVHWEDFNHGVHFXULWLHVDQGKLVFRPSDULVRQ RIUXQVRQWUDGLWLRQDOEDQNVZLWKUXQVLQWKHVKDGRZEDQNLQJV\VWHPDUH WHGLRXVDWWLPHV%XWWKHGHWDLOVDUHLPSRUWDQW7KLVLVWKHZRUNRIDFDUHIXO scholar. ,WKLQNWKHERRNLVYDOXDEOHDOVRIRU&KULVWLDQHFRQRPLVWVHYHQWKRXJK WKHUHLVQRWDVSHFLÀFDOO\&KULVWLDQZRUOGYLHZXQGHUO\LQJWKHDQDO\VLV,Q IDFW,WKLQNLWLVLPSRUWDQWHVSHFLDOO\IRUWKDWUHDVRQ,WLVHDV\IRU&KULVWLDQV to look at the crisis and have the same knee-jerk reaction that many popular press writers have, namely, claiming that the crisis was caused by greedy Wall Street bankers. It is easy to demonize the people we think brought this 94 FAITH & ECONOMICS on. But Gorton’s work shows that it was due less to personalities or bad people than it was to mistakes in how subprime mortgage-backed securities ZHUH FUHDWHG WKH GHSHQGHQFH RI WKHVH VHFXULWLHV RQ DSSUHFLDWLQJ KRXVH YDOXHV LQIRUPDWLRQ SUREOHPV DQG PLVDOLJQHG LQFHQWLYHV )XUWKHUPRUH RQFHDV\VWHPRIYXOQHUDELOLWLHVLVLGHQWLÀHGWKHEHVWVROXWLRQVDUHPRUH QXDQFHGDQGÁH[LEOHFKDQJHVUDWKHUWKDQZKROHVDOHUHUHJXODWLRQ References Rajan, R.G. Fault lines: How hidden fractures still threaten the world economy. Princeton: Princeton University Press. Reinhart, C.M., & Rogoff, K.S. This time is different: Eight FHQWXULHVRIÀQDQFLDOIROO\. Princeton: Princeton University Press. Q
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